1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) TYX yld pb to 4.609 %, but then 4.822 % Wed., and TNX dn to 4.289 %, but then up to 4.512 % a new recovery high (as expected in the TNX anyway)....I know its been a little weird lately, but am wondering if recent pops in yields are fobo's to sucker some longs out, and yields will back off again, given econ. not a strong as 'they' have been saying ? but that said, the t-bond @ 114 still probably puttable.... 2) and, DXY pb to 81.85, wc.... 3) as i said, cash GLD 440.5 continues its s.t. bo up, but I still see that 455. hanging over it, regardless, so is just not worth it to get in, up here/now, by me....
4) while, because I no longer receive weekly D.G. chartbooks, I did not specifically give any out herein, do note, from when I did specifically recently suggest a l.t. top imminent in the Steel stocks, they have fallen nicely, and are only now getting "stage 5 media iodiots questioning", as usual, and from all those medicocre Nl's who only loved them after their big l.t. price rises, dig ?, recall, again, I weas the 1st/only to recommend BUYING them 2 yrs. ago at their l.t. lows when those same people hated them, yes ?, so what else is new....the pattern rarely changes....R U learning ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Politicians, your Govt., etc.:
1) noting all local news reports a.o.a.s., warning of 'much higher car-gas prices, from here, guaranteed', well, we shall see....and, just read v. L. item LAT buried, "So. Calif. blackouts poss. this summer'', dgms....should be int. 2 C how Arnold handles that, when & if, hopefully B4 they occur, oy.... 2) as usual, was recently watching for l.t. top in MSO, as she gets o.o. jail, and, as I have mentioned for the last 2 yrs. herein, 1st/only, watch for more proof of almost perfect PSYCLE 'stk. px. vs. news/opinion from the 95 %' ahead, and a fall from up there, dig ?, am I good or what ? ....3) and, a close retired gent I value, just asked to buy CVX long, 'because they have a lock on LNG in the future, cant lose l.t.' - @ $ 63., to which, of course, I asked, "where were U at CVX @ 32 six months ago ?", get it ?, already CVX dn to 59, as the pattern rarely changes, dig ? next....oh, and this same nice guy wanted to short MSO, Tue. 3/8 - but it had already fallen from 37 to 25, dig ?
4) as usual, leave it to LAT's Petruno (dgms) to finally put big front-page headline article, 3/6, "can commodities price-rise boom last ?"
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, data, and/or stock price moves:
1) as more proof that 'formerly-dissed foeign countries are improving economically relative to the USA', TRA showed int, chart since 1995, showing, the yield-sprewad-of-foreign-country-bonds-over-US-bonds, has been steadily falling, from 12 % in mid-'98, to only a little over a 2 % difference in yields, now, hmmmm ....meaning, one no longer receives that used-to-be-huge additional yield, for investing in foreign bonds, vs. US bonds, get it ?, so what does THAT tell U ?, C ?, I told U so....'our' bonds are now relatively more attractive, dig ?, gee, who else out there is even remotely saying anything near that ?, besides me, as usual, of course....
2) the doomer TRA's NL guy, Wed., showed l.t. past chart of "total US credit mkt. bedt as a % of GDP", going back to 1910, and, of course, showed that debt-ratio no super-high, higher than was in 1933 at the depression low....but, gosh, they also had/have BEEN saying this, since, like, 1994 - right B4 huge stock prise RISES, and R.E. huge price RISES - dig ?, so, I ask, as usual, where is the correlation ?, dgms....oy, and then they quote some Ben Graham guy, again (as they have been bearish for DECADES, incorrectly, now, get it ?), saying, 'the supposed 'fair enterprose value' of the DJIA is 3,000....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) aging past-prime Buffett now reiterates his opinion that the DXy will break recent lows, citing growing evidence' which, I told U, would not lead to new lows, in fact, the DXY rising as only I predicted herein from 80 to 85, now 82+ still, since his previous incorrect DXy prediction, dig ?, next.... 2) and saw yet another surprising article, mirroring their similar article of 10/00 (just B4 the NAZ top, hmmmmm), citing studies about 'bisc. b-firms', and, according to The Central Acctg. Ofc. - a congressional investigative arm of Your govt. - working with the NASD & SEC, surveyed 12 leading disc. b-firms "about the piutfalls of online trading".....anyway, they found:
"online brokers do not keep records of down-time, glitches, comp. sys. problems, delays, etc., that occas. hurt their clients....they act cavalierly when delays occur....they rarely copmpensate their clients when comp. sys. stuff happens....often, their clients are never told anyway of such times, nor occas. bad fills as a result....they never warn their clients about potentially hazardous delays....they also found that disc. firms open margin accts. without a client's complete permission or understanding....their websites do not provide enuf info., often....' WOW....
e) more general, political, misreported, incorrect, agendized, slanted, items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ..
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much
better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of
other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential
emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains:
0 more Longs, neat....
and,
0 more Puts:
as you have always done, please read them carefully and VIEW their charts
carefully, to learn patterns....note, "s.o.m.", means, 'stock bt. on margin" (hypothetically)
all puts MSO (37 to 25+) for VVVVQ % Gain (hah).....
and/but, longs, SFE bd, CLTK, bal. RPMM bd ?, fo ?, and, puts, BPFH bo ?, for quick, mostly very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio ....are you learning the pattern ? if not, why not ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not
on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
again, "just get real close" to
suggested prices:
1/3 ALSC @ 2 3/4 ?, CRA ny (L), MSO 16.5 % recons w/MSO near 25+, (see below),
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): STTS fobd, cb, RPMM bd ?, 1/4 SINX @ 0.02- super spec, eh, LENSE @ 1.50+ eh, 1/3 SOHU again @ 0.175, wc, 1/3 pos. IRSN @ 2 1/8, 1/3 NOVL soon opb ? 1/2 ENZN no, ny ?, 1/3 UAMA @ 0.11 ?, 1/3 COMS ?, 1/2 PLXS @ 10.2, 1/3 TQNT @ 3 1/4, 1/3 SPRT @ 5.1, 1/3 ETLT @ 0.40+ spec, 1/3 ISIS held @ 4.1 fobd,....
remember, near major market turns/bottoms, you have been taught many times,
to "stick around and give stocks a bit more leeway, as to 'fobd's', etc.,
continuing to stay in, diversify more, allow for more risk, etc.", yes ? hence
the questions about 'fobd's', and buys that say 'fobd', right ? but some normal,
usual, QSL's still occur and are accepted along the way with no emotion nor
incompleting trading my way, right ? you're welcome....
*** Important: took, CHINA bd, CRAY bd ?, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
1/2 MSO (see above) @ 37, 1/4 EBAY @ 43+, EWJ @ 11, the 10-yr. bond @ 113, maybe even the major stk. indexes, like, COMPX @ 2100, BPFH bo, no ?, EVG @ 41+
"Repeats":
BKMU @ 12+, GOOG anyway @ 204+, Apr. Crude @ 55+, non,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, herein)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit ....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", CHNR wow, BITS wow, AZGS, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, , as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs (obviously, they were removed from sec. (7)....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.... again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., and/or strong(er):
also be sure to VIEW charts of all given winners lately from last few NL's, to
learn the patterns yet again:
several nice pops among given-from-lows techs:
IRSN 2.12 cb, 2.52, STTS 5.85 (B), 6.85 bo, ELY 13.25, 14.28 bo, ALSC 2.66 (B), 2.83, SUNW 4.53, SOHU 19.90 soso, PLXS 11.31, NYB 19.93 up 0.90, up/further since last NL here....
and, these are either pulling back, or bouncing, after expected pb's already occuring/occured:
SEHO 0.23 pb, 0.29 stbo, COMS 3.58 up, ETLT 0.49 pb, IRSN 2.21 pb, msa, ELY pb, msa, SUNW 4.10 pb....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must strengthen" or
else, yes ?)
ENZN ny, SEBL 9.06 UP, sos, PMCS sos, 9.36, 10.45, RPMM, LENSE, SPRT msa, SFE 1.50 bd (S), NYB, and, DSS 3.10 up bmsf....and, might ISIL have been yet another fobd ?, 18.03 up, C ?, ditto ISIS 4.62, 4.04, msa, held....and, CLTK 0.71 cbd ?, 0.78, wcfpfobd ?
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
MSO 25 dn 12, hah ! (S), down/lower since last time here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
these must
weaken anew:
EWJ 11.02 (fo)bo ?, BKMU dn, fobo, BPFH, Crude up, the March 10-yr. t-bond 114 up (ss ?), are and/or up/dn, bouncing, when/and they should be falling more.... and, GOOG 190, 180 ctbd ?....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
*** in
lieu of IGR here, just do those individual stocks below, they tend to be depessed....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added:
added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
note how many
previously-given 'fobd's' are being re-added !
'opbo', means 'on pullback
only', yes ?
I removed a bunch more....then added some fobd's and new ones,
as usual....as you have been taught, be patient and selective:
of course, from
here, most are ONLY on/after pb's, yes ?
but, now, 10/5, many are already up, so only buying them near lows - but you knew that....
obviously, many have already bounced, so oopbo for most, yes ?
added, ENZN no, ny, PLXS, BWNG ?, COMS ?, UAMA, CRA ny (L), UMC, ACTI. obpbas, to, CPN obpbo, SOHU tln, SINX fobd, TXEO another super spec. ?, PCLE tln, CY obpbo, STTS, SKIL ?, SWY fobd ?, PKS ltp ?, RPMM bd ? fobd ?, LSCC opbo, TQNT opbo, ADCT obpbo, SUNW obpb, SPRT bd ?, SEHO opbo....
and, including, for pot. price rises, plus pot. high-dividends/interest while
you wait ?
added, MSO 16.5 % recons w/downside prot. to $ 13. on MSO, WIW, NYB fobd ?, to, PMCS 15 % recons, eh, opbo, DCS ?, ZF obpbo, EVC obpbo, to,
and, still been watching 2 cdn. o & g. royalty trusts, C.AY.U, and C.NAE.U, (APF energy trust, & NAL o & g trust), but both are already up around 11+ and 13++ now, so too high ?, yielding 15 % each here anyway ?, eh, tln ?,
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
note: as always, because so many patterns have changed, be sure to view
each of these, B4 acting on any !, recent drops to s.t. support means only 'put' these after rallies towards highs, right ?, so removed a bunch, with recent drops....and may remove more, so chk. charts B4 considering:
note, finally removed some stks which had, obviously, already worked big-time, or broken out, belatedly....
added, to, GOOG (prob. fobo), DJTA oso, EWJ, crude oil again on strength, bonds on strength ?, XMSR ?, SBUX ? (see above), EVG, BKMU bo ?....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order,
and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops:
added, Extended: (for I.G.'s, please see sec. (2) above, from now on, , all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs.... this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas
section....
general note: as per my teachings, WITHIN some industry groups, there
may be bpth, extendeds, and depresseds, as recently, certainly normal....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES