1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
As you know, stepping back, gaining perspective, I have very recently been having similar "feelings" to those I had in late 1972/early 1973....Even intimating predicting a "larger drop among extendeds" is always risky, often not very helpful, and usually useless, so I will not do so, but I could still see that occuring among many extendeds, at some point in 1999....you know, an "off the table whack-down, from out of the blue"....Not among our depressed stage 1 stocks, mind you, but only among stage 4 stocks....It was Dow 1,000 then, and Dow 10,000 now....Don't kid yourself--- any rise above 10,000 is still likely to be just a fakeout breakout ....and may mark a similar top to last July's....in any case, 3 % above or below that level is unimportant, in the bigger scheme....read sec. (8) below....
One must keep trying a few Puts, from sec. (3) issues....a few real small losses there, will likely still be more than compensated for, by future bigger gains among Puttables....Master I.G.R., because that will continue to be the key....FYI, seriously, I helped put myself through a major college, from late 1973, through late 1994, just by using my scholarship money, buying/trading depresseds which formed S.T. bases, IN A BIG, LONG BEAR MARKET, most all of which ROSE, within their longer-term-forming bases, for 50-100 % gains each, in rolling, rotating groups, etc. If some broke, I just cut real small losses along the way....the point is, depresseds with stops, are the best place to be long, in the main....and, of course, some Puts now and then....
IMPORTANT new note: since most all MY longs, and most all MY puts, have
similar types of chart patterns (otherwise, they would not be listed, right ?),
YOUR viewing, say, a bunch, each day, should yield you plenty of "actionable"
stocks, anyway, without you having to view every single stock, every single day
....My software allows me to follow about 500 stocks, and when they hit certain
pre-entered upside/downside prices, I am alerted with a 'beep'....then I view
just those charts, at just those times, takes maybe 10 seconds each, to see
whether I should act, buy, sell, log that price move into my brain, or watch it
more closely, etc. Simple, quick, effective....
Also, Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL
applicable, staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable,
"PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever
I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of,
for YOUR educational/trading benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most
Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And note, the
"learning/feeling/sentiment" items, are in section (2) and (8). Longer lists and
I.G.'s, are in section (6) and (7)....and all follow-ups, are in sections (4) and
(5). Eight, Very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking
advantage.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?): 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1)
as predicted, probably was a S.T. top among most Energies, Thu., and Crude Oil,
just above 15. should be it for a little while, on news of an "agreement" among
OPEC, etc.... 2) the DJ Util. Avg. just over 305, Fri., as expected, is also
approaching resistance.... 3) remember, am still expecting another pullback
in Gold(s), before a possible run at trying to break over recent pop-highs.... 4)
also note the now "lower-tops" in biggies like, CSCO, MSFT, SUNW, VOD, IBM, LU, etc., with similar chart patterns, yes ? ....5) some of the Internet stocks may be completing head & shoulders tops ahead, will be watching for that, now that, as I said, very few Internet stock Bears exist....more of a
lower-volume-nonconfirmation, than a "perfect top".... 6) Paper stocks continue to act well, as only I predicted.... 7) also note recent rises in our depressed Insurance stocks, but also had to remove those as Puttables....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, improper comments from Financial Media,
reporters, etc.: 1) a very interesting item, from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v., Thu.
11th, Joe kernan, CNBC, 10:50 am, right at the highs ? in a shocking display of
insecurity, he actually chastised specific, recently bearish prognosticastors,
naming names --- among them, head technical analysts at Cantor Fitz (Meehan),
Merrill, Salomon (Acuff), Prudential (Acampora), J.P. Morgan, etc.--- Acuff
actually saying, "even if we rise above 10,000 , from 9,000 , I am still bearish", and, reminding people how, as I brought to your attention at the time, Acampora was Bearish near the Oct. 1998 lows, and twice since --- a real nebullious flip-flopper....Kernan saying there was an unusual consensus of bearish guys (them), on Feb. 2, 1999, at Dow 9300- or so, and, that "they were not early, they were wrong"....Bob Pisani. had told J. Kernan that day, that 80 % of all people he spoke with, were also bearish from 9,300 "for at least a -10 % correction"....The point: given Kernan's lousy track record, and attitude, him saying this, pointing this out, at this time, may ITSELF be a S.T., smart-ass, impending stage 4 top sign, S.T., yes ? get it ? Who is he, to do that, while not also rewarding those of us who have been right, when HE has been wrong ? This is a bit of an advanced "PSYCLE sm" sentiment concept, so I hope you understand it....
2) Fri., 12th, 8:20 am, pst, KWHY-tv reporter gal (oy), regarding 'the
market', actually said, "we have truly never been here before....no previous
pattern or market condition covers the new levels the Dow has reached lately"
....wow....See ? that's the kind of ignorance "the 95 %" are fed, whereby media
people say things that are so blatantly false, yet no one tells the receiver, or
corrects the messenger, so "the 95 %" continue to fall prey to the PATTERNS that
DO repeat, but they are not made aware of....We HAVE been here before, countless
times in the historical past, etc. Of course, YOU and I will be prepared....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "fundamentalists/
companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.:
1) Bob Pisani., CNBC, at the close, Thu. 11th, said, "a lot of people are going
short CPQ here, at a four-month low, worried about just how bad things are...."
hmmmm, shorting ? now ? after the decline I gave you, which THEY missed ? ....2)
looks like I was, again, the first/only to give ORCL as a put right near its high
for you herein....Dillon, Read finally downgraded it today --- at its low....just
like it did with "CELL", which I told you of, last NL....they should have gotten
my NL, or at least learned to read a chart....0 for 2.... 3) Merrill finally
downgraded "ORCL", Fri., at $ 28. low, from "outperform" to "accumulate"....huh ?
Why not "put/sell" near its high, to protect its customers, when I gave it to you
herein ? Just as they also did with "CELL", at its low....0 for 2.... 4) and,
KWHY-tv, Fri. 12th, 7:45 am, pst, a Salomon Asset Mgmt. analyst, also actually
said, "I like ORCL, I still own it, it may go down big now, but long-term...."
hmmmm....that's what I want in an investment: a guaranteed decline from 38 to 28, real quick, without stop loss....not....what a cop-out.... 5) I am beginning to finally read more "recovery" comments regarding "Asian" economies, late, with their stocks already way up off the lows, as usually occurs in stage 2, yes ?
d) more, late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1)
First Albany analyst, on CNBC, at the close Thu. 11th, did say, "everyone is
taking 10,00 and higher as a given, too much optimism, which makes me skittish ....I'm not saying get bearish, but perhaps shift some $, from stocks to bonds"... .as it should be.... 2) Thu. 11th, a big B-firm analyst actually initiated coverage of "OSTE", with a Buy, with a 12-month price target of (only) $ 50.... hmmmm....First, it is $ 46. already, oy....second, see the potential rounding top it might form up ahead ? third, it is already up from $ 7. less than 2 years ago....hardly attractive, except as a potential Put, when/if it rallies and fails, yes ? And that guy gets paid for this kind of output ? ....3) one technician I do respect, Ralph Bloch at RJF, Fri. 12th, said recent Index rise was Not the real thing (I agree, as you know), with terrible breadth (true, but old news), and the lowest put/call ratio (bearish) since beofre the 1987 crash.... 4) regarding the Oil Service stocks, Fri. 12th, KWHY-tv, 9:10 am, pst, heard another incorrect analyst say "the fundamentals did not, and still do not, warrant inmvestment in these stocks, depressed as they have been...." Always good to hear yes ? ....5) Fri. 12th, Merrill and DLJ both finally downgraded Rite Aid (a stock I specifically gave you as a Put right near its high, herein), at its low.... Amazing, how they could love it, just few weeks ago, raving about its "L.T. fundamentals and quality", yet, in a very short time, RAD fell from $ 50, to 21... .THEN they downgrade it....with no stops from either B-firm all the way down.... this makes Merrill, 0 for 3 today, yes ?
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "Covered
(previous) Short Sale", where no puts options existed....
bal. calls ATW (17+ to 26+) for % Gain....1/2 pos. calls RDC (8++ to 12) for Q 175% G....bal. calls BJS (13+ to 19-) for VQ 175% G....bal. calls SDC (13+ to 18+) for VQ 166% G....bal. calls HAL (28+ to 37+) for 166% G.... calls FGI. (10 to 14+) for Q 150% G....bal. calls BHI. (17 to 22+) for VQ 125 % G ....1/2 pos. puts ORCL (38+ to 28+) for Q 111% G....1/2 pos. calls TOY (14+ to 18+) for VVQ 111% G....1/2 pos. calls ESV (9- to 12+) for 111% G....stk.on.mgn. TAM (6+ to 9-) for VVQ 75% G....1/2 pos. calls WAC (20+ to 25-) for VQ 111% G.... 1/2 pos. puts ENVY (55+ to 45+) for 90% G....1/2 pos. calls CNC (30- to 34+) for VVQ 90% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. GYMB (6+ to 9-) for 66% G....1/2 pos. stock MB (2+ to 4-) for VQ 55% G....and long, FLS, for VQ small G....
and/but, longs, MLHR, PAH, HBI., and, puts, AFL (50 to 47 to 50), ARMHY, DCLK, GEOC, CCU, SGP, KR, for very quick, very small losses, of little overall consequence to a properly diversified portfolio....some of these cut PUT sales were "immediate", before you could have even bought their puts, but, in my honesty, I have always included these kinds of puts herein, FYI....I'll also bet almost none of you had Puts in anything recently, anyway.... so no biggie, right ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy any Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their
patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just
buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with
less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent,
for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions"
have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(new ones) BCP @ 6-, BXH @ 4 7/8, KNE @ 20+, TE @ 21++, TXM @ 6 5/16,
(NOTE--- Read full list again, carefully, for several New, "re-added"
repeats) AAC @ 3 9/16, ADM @ 14++, AG @ 6, ALN @ 4 11/16, AOI. @ 2 7/16, APM 3 13/16, BBA @ 3 13/16, BEZ @ 19, BGO @ 11/16, BIR @ 4.06, BLM @ 2.06, BMC @ 4 7/16, CAU @ 0.31, CCH @ 3/16, CFS @ 4.06, CLCDF @ 9/16, CNJ @ 16+, CS @ 7 3/4, DAY @ 3/16, DSGIF @ 3, EAR @ 9/16, ECO @ 1 11/16, ESOL @ 1 5/16, FAVS @ 4 1/4, HDG @ 1.06, HIV @ 1 11/16, HL @ 3 9/16, ISCO @ 1.06, ISSI. @ 2 13/16, KTEC @ 6+, LXR @ 15/16, MANU @ 7+, MEA @ 29, MLP @ 9.06, MSN @ 7/16, NGX @ 1/2, NWK @ 8.06, ONST @ 1.06, PAM @ 3 5/8, PIN @ 4.06, PLC @ 3 5/16, PSFT @ 17+, RJF @ 18+, SAA @ 0.75, SOC @ 5 9/16, SSC @ 11/16, SSM @ 14+, TBP @ 5.06, TXB @ 3 11/16, UMR @ 11/16, UQM @ 4+, WAXS @ 7+, WLV @ 19, WTT @ 1 9/16, ZITL @ 2 11/16....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds...."buy low", right ?
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein,
countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT
"just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some
stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes
over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at
times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up
those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for
you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already
moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many
subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and
there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching"
NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly:
the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, PMA, HWS, EEX, UWW, ACK, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol: (new ones) CBS @ 36+, CL @ 94-, CTS @ 50-, EQ @ 70+, FITB @ 74-, INKT @ 77, ODP @ 36-, PMI. @ 34+, ROV @ 28, VRTS @ 80++.
(and, note, some "new" repeats again) ADTC @ 42++, CVC @ 71+, ECL @ 41, GGO @ 30++, IPG @ 77+, LIN @ 39+, LVCI. @ 31+, MCLD @ 41-, MFNX @ 50, MKL @ 182, MTNT @ 53, NT @ 62-, NTLI. @ 83-, OK @ 46+, PHCC @ 50, PKN @ 96+, PMCS @ 82, PWAV @ 29+, QRSI. @ 50+, SEQU @ 21+, SFXE @ 62, SYKE @ 30+, TYC @ 78-, VNWK @ 40, VTSS @ 51+ .
Note how some of these "repeated" stocks, popped back up, allowing us to
catch them, again, yes ? For the umpteenth time: recent pops are giving us
(i.e., YOU) mutliple opportunities to catch some of our Puttables, as a stock
go, say, from, 60, to 56, to 60, to 57, to 60, to 58, to 60+, etc., get it ?
each time, provided it does not break its top pattern, it will be (re)added
herein, around 60, get it ? and, it will also be listed in sec. (5) below as +3, or -4, etc., in the meantime, each time it moves, followed-up, for your benefit....get it ? this is a good thing....
and/but, took, WWCA, WCOM, UNPH, BEM, FMY, AFS, CI., Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here).
IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web
site, a stock might break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed EVB/base
pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy, or put"
levels in between NL's, in which case they are still added, as above....So I am
assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying any
Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and
therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted....this takes
just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues
which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then
incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the process is your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", PAIR, BED, VLO, WEL, CSE, FCH, GPC, SRE, HMT, BRI., IMO, UAG, FLM, FTR, THC, LUB, KEG, MCH, HP, Z., as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, GILTF, RTRSY, BBBY, BEBE, PLCE, EGRP, EXDS, CKFR, INKT, GNSS, WHIT, NLCS, MSPG, SUNW, ASON, MXIM, INTU, PPDI., TXCC, XLNX, CCL, TSS, SKO, SWC, ANN, AZO, CSN, DL, DHR, DT, DOW, FNM, LU, STM, DS, TD, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single one of these was specifically given herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you could still have caught them, if you took the time to vies their charts vrecently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
MSN 5/8 up 1/4, HIV 2 1/8 up 7/16, MB 4 up 1 3/16 (sos), NETM 3 1/2 up 3/4, AAC 4 5/8 up 1 1/8, NVX 8 3/4 up 1, CS 8 5/8 up 7/8, IMG 9 1/8 up 1 1/8, ARG 9 1/2 up 1, TXM 6 3/4 up 1/2, NWAC 27 up 2 3/4, MEA 31 3/8 up 2 1/2, WLV 19 3/8 up 3/4, ORI. 20 1/4 up 1, FJ 30 3/8 up 1 3/8, CNC 36 1/8 up 2 1/8, NEM 20 3/8, BHI. 22 5/8 (S), BJS 19 1/8 (S), PAR 8 3/4, CFK 2 3/8, BGO 13/16, WHR 49 1/8 up 1 1/8, up/further, just since last time here....also, see, HET, CIR, higher still....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some subscribers
who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds
for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above,
you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and
what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....
*** for the last time: note how many of our Oil Service stocks have popped up
towards their 200 DMA's, and/or their Oct./Nov. '98 levels....once there, or
slightly above, they will, still, likely pull back again thereafter, and only THEN, I think, a bigger rise may unfold....down the road....at least towards their 1998 highs....but that's later....some may do it now, some later. Separately,
note how, ATW, BTC, UWW, TOY, GSB, BJS, HOT, IDTC, CNC, RDC, ESV, SDC, NEM, WFT, NBR, SLF, DO, have now all risen to, or near, or just above, their 200 DMA....I gave you all of these near their lows....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, UPX 2 1/8 up 1/2 (sos), PIN 4 3/4 up 3/4, FLH 8 7/8 up 5/8, BS 8 7/8 up 3/4, ICI. 35 3/4 up 1 5/8, WLV 19 3/8 up 5/8, PSFT 18 1/8, NEM 18 1/8, BGO. 0.68, TXB, MANU, NVX, KTEC, PIR 9, NDE, TAROF, ISSI., CWC, CYM, UQM, FTL, UBIX, MRVC, BEZ, PAH, PAM, PLC, CAS, CENT, WLM, WND, SAMC, APFC, BUNZ, AIMM, GKI., MAH, WFT, ELY, ALN, NPRO, BLM, TFN, COE, NPSI., NDE, MCL, CFS, UMR, KRY, MLP, SAA, BBA, WKGP, FNL, LXR, SUL, SSC, CCH, PB, Metals....some of these are also in "ms" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or
2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or
of "instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) WORK 8 1/4, BBA 4 1/8, CLCDF, PSFT, MRVC, COE, ICI., ALN, ELY, RJF, ATV, HIV, PLC, MAH, UPR, WLV, DSGIF, MANU, ZITL, CWC, SSM, WLM, HPC, NEM, NPRO, CMND, ESOL, CENT, ADM, HDG, MLP, AIMM, SAMC, AOI., MRII., TMO, SAA, PZN, TPS, TBP, UPX, EAR, SAMC, LKI., FNL, RYO, NDE, LFB, ALN, BBA, LXR, WKGP, MCL, CYM, SSC, SOC, CAU, ICI., WS, cheap golds, oil services....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
*** NOTE: also see, now, SFSK below 10 (S), RAD 22, dn 15 (S), DAYR 10+, LNCR, METZ, NVLS, PLCM, TSAI., DLTR, APCC, CPWR, CPQ, HGR, LFG, DNY, LAF, MRX, NIS, SMI., SKO, CSN, SBL, WPI., XRX, T., fell still lower, I gave you each, near high....also, see, HLYW, TSS, MRX, fell to their 200 DMA....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On next Weakness,
towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously long Puts right
near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up every idea mentioned,
for Your Benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little
time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor
antsiness....let them do their thing.
**** IMPORTANT, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and
present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....period....
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow): (some new names here) many, many bounces: remember, as I
have been saying, almost all Puttables must, still, break below their recent
lows, as "follow-through", obviously, including, ETEC -3 5/8, AXNT -1 5/8, +2,
-1, QRSI. -2, ADCT -1 3/4, PMCS -3, +4, EQ +2 1/2, VNWK, NXTL, LNC, CSGS -1 1/2, LLTC -2, PKN +1 1/2, -1 1/2, ASML -1, AMTD +3, WTSLA +1, ECILF +2, IPG, RX, NOK/A -2, +3, ADLAC, VCELA, SEQU, ENVY, PWAV, VOD +3, -6, PHCC +3, -4, PROX, MKL, SYKE, ROST +1 1/2, VTSS, MTNT -1 1/4, LVCI., CMVT, CTAS -1 1/2, GGO, MHP, TYC +3 1/2, -1 1/2, FRX, ENVY, CLX +2, UVN, LNC, IIN, TD, ECL, OK....
again, we need to see many stocks break below recent lows/necklines, and, so
far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)"
sales in sec. (3), dig ? seeing too many bounces, but note, how few still make
new highs, yet, right ?
Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn from.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE: obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
Computer/Techs: please see Techs, listed, in the "watching"
section, just below.
(Y2K) "Year 2000": (ZITL, SAA, UBIX, Only near recent lows)
Prec.Metals (NGX, TVX, GLDR, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, BGO, all real cheapies, riskier, most need more work/time)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Copper) (LTV, WLM, BS, BIR, RTC, CSE, FNL, AGR, IGL, AG, OS)
Energy and Oil Svc. (TMAR, UPR, UMR, KNE, etc., near their recent lows, Only)
Biotech/Health/Medical (TAROF, FHCC, TXB, HIV, COL)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel/Shoes (KFI., MSN, BLM, HBI.)
Hotel/Gaming/REIT (HMT, PAM, SER)
Utilities as "EVB's" (BGE, CIN, CSR, SRE, TE)
And, as I pointed out earlier here, some depressed R.E.I.T./Financials/ Mtg.-type/R.E., stocks, many with huge Insider Buying a while ago, some with very high "potential" dividends (more boring, though), may shape up ahead....watching, in no particular order, add, HPT, ESC, TCR, FFD, NHI., to, FCH, MT, CNO, AIJ, EOP, SMT, WIR, LTC, LSN, BD, PRT, SMT, WDN, RTC, CPT, ARI., NHR, BRE, AAC, ALF, AML, BNP, CPP, CRO, PMC, BED, ENN, FBG, NDE, JPR, MAA, RFS, if you need some maybe's, on pullbacks only)
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy
list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": PMA, HWS, EEX, UWW, ACK, --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first.
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY:
added some more (hey, its what the market tells me to add), added, ABH, BGE, BMS, BYX, CAS, CBZ, CIN, COC, CSR, ESOL, FHS, FLM, FTR, GHM, GKI., HLX, HPK, IHS, IV, JDEC, KNE, LUB, MAK, MLT, MXTR, MWHS, NOI., OCN, OEI., OXY, PLX, RCGI., RJF, SEV, SGE, SMD, SRE, TE, THC, TKN, TMAR, TMD, WAXS, WWW, XTR, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) AAC, ACE, ACX, ADGO, ADM, ALN,
AOI., APM, ARG, ATV, BCP, BEZ, BKI., BMC, CFS, CFK, CNB, CNJ, COMS, CS, CWC,
CYB, DETC, DSGIF, EAR, ECO, ELCO, FAVS, FJ, FLH, FRTE, FTL, GW, HCC, HDG, HL, HMY, ISSI., KTEC, LXR, MAH, MB, MEA, MIDI., MLP, MLT, MRVC, MSN, NOI., NPSI., NVX, NWAC, NWK, ONST, ORI., PB, PCAR, PLC, PSFT, PZN, RML, RSC, RT, SAMC, SHOW, SOC, SSM, SSN, SWK, SWW, SYC, TBP, TGX, TMAR, TMO, TPS, TXM, TWA, UAG, UQM, UWW, VMRX, WAC, WEC, WKGP, WLV, WND, WTT, VSNR, XTO, Z., ZITL, still, most all as "EVB's"....
Note, some new Utilities, REIT's, Aero/Defense....some right here, some Not just yet, as some still need more work, technically....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....
Remember, this is just a "watching to possibly buy" list !!! they only
become Buys, when in sec. (3) above, when/if they decline towards lows and hold,
yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over time, when you have a few
minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns ? This is a positive,
not a negative....note, we re-added some previously given names, above
here....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
Fuller, Potential Puts
list, by Industry groups where practical, near their highs ONLY --- do NOT "chase
down" much:
note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the
ONLY Puttables here, all others have been removed....
**** some new ones (half of these are repeated from last time here): add, AMTD, ANTC, ATHM, BBBY, BBT, BEBE, BEM, BUD, BXM, CBS, CEC, CKFR, CLX, CMA, CTS, DHR, DLJ, DOW, DL, DT, EAT, ECILF, ECL, ELNK, EQ, EXDS, FITB, FLT, GCTY, GLC, HDL, HQ, HRL, IBM, INKT, INSP, LVCI., NSOL, ODP, OSI., PG, PHCC, PKE, PMI., QRSI., ROST, ROV, RTRSY, SCOR, SDS, TMPW, TRB, TVGIA, TWTR, UTX, VERT, VRTS, WHIT, WMB, WTSLA, XCIT, XON, ZQK, to,
("repeats") AAS, ADCT, ALSI., AMO, AOL, ASML, AXNT, BBOX, BBY, BMY, CM, CMCSK, CSCO, CSGS, CSN, CTAS, CTL, CYCLD, DNEX, DS, EGRP, FRX, GILTF, INTU, IPG, LBTYA, LUK, MACR, MANH, MCLD, MCRL, MFNX, MHP, MKL, MLNM, MNMD, MRIS, MSPG, MTNT, NDN, NTLI., NOK/A, OK, PERC, PKN, PWAV, QRSI., SEPR, SEQU, SYKE, TD, TJX, TXN, UVN, VOD, VTSS....
Note, added still more ---again, this is what the market is telling me to
show you is happening....obviously, some of these are already down, and may be
too late if not Put already, yes ? Note, we are also revisiting more previously
given stocks....obviously, a large list here, as I told you to expect
recently....VIEW the charts, before acting....take the time....my goodness, how
else are you going to learn the patterns ?
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic, Retail, Cap. Goods, Blue Chips, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech,
Consumer, Banks, Insurance, Finance, Computer, Internet, Banks, High-PE Techs,
and all Tele.-Commun., near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their
patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
I am shocked that any subscribers would have missed the Oil Services, in their beautiful, easy, obvious "bases"....you have NO excuses....if not done already, take the time to VIEW the Oil Service stocks charts !!! SEE the pattern, LEARN to recognize it, the next time(s) any other I.G.'s fit that pattern....just get close(r)....I don't "do" "scenarios", as you know, but it would seem, this is part of a still-biggger, longer-term rise for these issues, after normal pullbacks along the way....If you were too-antsy or impatient, you may want to work on eliminating emotional impediments more....re-read my "Mastering Psychology" booklet....How else are you going to learn things of true lifetime value ? This is certainly more important than some other life activities....'nuff said.
*** New, brief historical Lesson: as I mentioned recently, do VIEW a chart of the DJIA from 1960 or so, and note, that that Index hit 1,000. five separate times, from 1966, without breaking out, with significant corrections in between, in rolling I.G.R., before finally breaking over 1,000 for good, in 1982.... Intrestingly, the first time the DJIA hit 100., its first "big round number", was in Sept. 1916 (yes, a long time ago, but the "pattern" is similar, still), then corrected to 65. by June 1917, rose to 112 in 1919, then corrected to 65 again in 1921, then 101 in 1923, then correcting again, before finally breaking above 100. for good, in 1925's roaring bull market....The point is, this DJIA 10,000 may be the END of a rise for some "extended" stocks, not the mark of a "new beginning because this time is different", dig ? The last two such instances, it took Years to break out for good....See ? I bet you didn't know of these past "PSYCLES sm" ....sometimes, they DO matter....Short-sighted, ignorant losers do not study historical patterns, far-sighted intelligent winners do....Even if it's just to see what happened before....
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort,
researching, finding, and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating
each NL itself, I have not had time to give more "Lessons" here lately, nor to
finish 3 more real valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons
you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7)
educational Booklets, I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm",
from 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those
section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....also take this time to VIEW
charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a stock herein
may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at any
given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in sec.
(3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen or
fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then is pulling back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it
pulls back towards $ 6 again,. without breaking its original pattern, is remains
a buy (sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. 3,
ilisutrates this helpful item....It is very simple, as I have said umpteen times:
all suggested stocks remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original
prices, in the future, provided their original chart pattern is still intact....
period.
Plus, as you have seen among "repeats" in sec. 3, often, a stock WILL
sometimes return to its original actionable price levels, and some will end up
"revalidating" after initial slight breaks of patterns, which is also of little
consequence, since your transaction costs are so low, and you have eliminated all
emotions from the process, you can always get back in, at those times, yes ?
(plus, as I taught you, we give a bit more 'leeway' at the special year-end
period, employing a bit less strict/tight stops, right ?)
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
Remember, WE tend to ONLY trade long, from stage 1, into stage 2, with stops,
and often miss potential stage 3 rises....and we try to Only get Puts at what we
think might be a stage 4 top, with stops, and often miss stage 6 and 7 drops, but
more on that later....The highest-reliability, reward/risk plays, are in stage 1
and 4, even with occasional stops triggered.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is
also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, 2) TRY at least "some"
"Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable,
than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close
stops....no emotion.
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops, and July '98 tops, and drops, have
proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my
main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match
my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously,
have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things,
properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you
actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE
you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows,
for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming
you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from
the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....