1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Also note how both, Energies, and Airlines, are up, simultaneously....For decades (re-read my "scenarios/links" booklet), people have tried to make cases for Bonds and Stocks to always have to move in same direction, and, Airlines and Energies to always have to move in opposite direction from each other....and/or, Chems. and Oils moving opposite....and others of similar ilk....For "fundamental" "reasons" (don't get me started on "reasons", just read my booklets). Anyway, such simplistic assumptions are NOT founded in long-term historical fact, often enough, to just be followed blindly....Last, I read of a sharp guy recently answer the question, "of what significance is Dow 10,000 ?", by saying, "it fills the gap between 9,999 and 10,001"....nice.
IMPORTANT note: since most all MY longs, and most all MY puts, have
similar types of chart patterns (otherwise, they would not be listed, right ?),
YOUR viewing, say, a bunch, each day, should yield you plenty of "actionable"
stocks, anyway, without you having to view every single stock, every single day
....My software allows me to follow about 500 stocks, and when they hit certain
pre-entered upside/downside prices, I am alerted with a 'beep'....then I view
just those charts, at just those times, takes maybe 10 seconds each, to see
whether I should act, buy, sell, log that price move into my brain, or watch it
more closely, etc. Simple, quick, effective....
Also, Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL
applicable, staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable,
"PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever
I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of,
for YOUR educational/trading benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most
Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And note, the
"learning/feeling/sentiment" items, are in section (2) and (8). Longer lists and
I.G.'s, are in section (6) and (7)....and all follow-ups, are in sections (4) and
(5). Eight, Very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking
advantage.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?): 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) note the pops among our depressed Farm/Equip./Fert./Chem. stocks, I was, again, the first/only to give out near lows herein for you....DE, CSE, IGL, ICI., AG, etc., and are NH, CAT, AGU, also bottoming ahead ? ....2) noticing some strength among Internets, occured, Monday 15th, BUT, on lower volume than normal, for many.... usually NOT a good sign, technically....many still look like developing H & S formations.... 3) getting the expected pullback in cash Gold, down 6., Mon. 15th....cash Gold actually broke down somewhat, a real surprise, but, again, I told you it would drop again, before establishing the potential for a bigger rise down the road....most Golds still had more work to do, technically, anyway, and still do, as I said....
4) notice how the Nikkei. Index, recently did, what our Energies did, technically....But, now that everyone has noticed the breakout, look for the Nikkei. to top S.T., and pull back as well.... 5) note, some Internets, Media, Banks, Drugs, Blue Chips, quietly running into brick walls resistance here, even as "the 95 %" trumpet bullishness with Dow 10,000....one must look WITHIN the "market" to see what is really going on.... 6) note I am adding more depressed Tech./Comp. stocks....I see NO one else doing that down here.... 7) Brent Crude Oil hits new recovery high, 15.33, and some Energy stocks rise just above their 200 DMA's....but this may still be a fakeout S.T. breakout, some pullbacks still likely....maybe too much, too soon on some ? ....8) the FTSE (Great Britain's stock index) also looks a bit toppy, acting a bit weaker than ours....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, improper comments from Financial Media,
reporters, etc.: 1) Tom Petruno, L.A. Times, 3/14 column, "Worldwide, Stock Markets Send a Bullish Message": late, as usual, yes ? He cited how, Mexico, India, stock markets, are already up +20 %, Japan/Hong Kong/Britain, + 8 %, since Jan. 1, and Germany/France/Australia +6 % recently, in U.S. dollars....While the Media continues to warn "the 95 %" of their "fundamental/economic" problems....Of course, from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v., these are still, likely only "stage 1" pops, NOT the beginnings of huge new moves for those kinds of foreign markets....not yet, not without more pullbacks first....Remember, I don't want to hear supoosed "reasons" or "linkages"....I'm talking long-existing, normal, usual, repeating technical and PSY-chological patterns here, acting BEFORE trends begin, with stops, not after they have already been reported as having moved.... 2) mag, Smart Investing, March '99 issue, article, "AOL's Hot Hand": (quotes) "if Internet stocks were a poker game, AOL would be holding a straight flush"...."remarkable company"...."three rivers of income flow into AOL's bay of profit"...."on a tear"....Hey, sure, I was recently wrong with puts over $ 80. for QSL....and still not stage 4 top yet, technically....but other Internets did, and DO have stage 4 signs....just FYI.... 3) heard an economist-gal on CNBC, Thu. 8:55 am, say, "Germany had negative growth last quarter"....I love when I hear that from some idiot analysts: "negative growth"....in reality, there is no such thing, right ?
4) cnbc's Bob Pisani. has made a ridiculous point lately, several times, to keep talking about how, supposedly, TX and XON, have been "big movers" among the Energies....oy....just FYI, this guy couldn't chart a stock if his life depended upon it....anyway, XON is barely up 15 %, and is up against resistance over 75, and TX has just risen back to where it broke down from, up only 25 %, hitting its 200 DMA resistance, dig ? neither stock is even worth mentioning compared to omany others more volatile, yes ? what, are XON and TX paying him to mention them ? ....5) can anybody out there follow anything that CNBC's "world economic stuff" reporter, Kathleen Conner, says ? She talks SO fast, messes up words, etc., when all she has to do is read....Then, she always expresses how "concept/item X looks to be the case, but also, concept/item Y (always the opposite) may also be true"....making her output upsetting, ambiguous, indefinitive, and mostly useless, yes ? of course, she "looks" nice....don't get me started on how the financial media often treats women (unfairly)....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "fundamentalists/
companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.:
1) CNBC reporter, Tue. 16th, 9:10 am, "that was Bob Pisani., our market historian here at CNBC"....well, That explains a lot, yes ? ....2) Mon. 15th, finally, Lehman Bros. cut their future eps estimates for "RAD"--- but remains long, all the way down.... 3) on CNBC, Wed. 17th, 12:25 am, a M. Fund guy pointed out, that EBAY and YHOO stocks are currently being valued at $ 7,000 per their year 2002 potential customer....wow....that ain't gonna fly, unless we find even bigger fools....oh, yeah, Thu., 18th, Salomon Bros. just initiated coverage on EBAY and YHOO (where have they been all this time ?) with not-too-much-higher 12-month targets, on each....don't get me started....they must be performing investemnt banking services for them....covering their you-know-what, dig ? ....4) the U.S. trade deficit goes to all-time high, but matters not....if you understand my "PSYCLE sm", you know why....re-read my "media" and "scenarios" booklets....
d) more, late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) Mon. 15th, on CNBC, 12:35 pst, J. Maguire, Henderson Bros., actually said, regarding stock Indexes, "everybody is only looking up, no one is looking down", and, "all these millenium levels we have hit before, have never been an impediment ...." Excuse me ? exactly what "millenium levels" has the Dow hit before ? another dumb, and potentially bearish, comment.... 2) Mon. 15th, CNBC had on M. Acuff, a biggie at Salomon who I mentioned here last time....among the things he said, was that he was seeing M. Fund mgrs. who are being paid for supposedly-being-more-actively-managing money in oft-changing stock positions, becoming ersatz "inactive", moving towards sort-of "index weighting" in their actual portfolios....so, in effect, people are (over)paying, for less active mgmt., get it ? they are paying for a team that is "punting", so to say.... 3) Tues. 16th, Prudential's R. Acampora, just said, "buy whatever has been strongest, and don't worry about anything...." wow....he did also seem a bit testy, when asked about his filp-floppiness.... 4) oy....Heiko Theime and Joe Granville must be reading my NL, as they also, Wed. 17th, each mentioned my historical long-term S & P pattern similarities, I mentioned recently herein.... 5) KWHY-tv, Wed. 17th, 11:10 am, pst, Tom McLellan, son of "Oscillator inventor", kept saying nebullious, bullish-and-bearish cokments, as usual.... saying their Osclillator has NOT showed proper strength, in recent "rally", and, if sees not too much more weakness, would turn things bearish, yet, predicted a S.T. bottom to occur, Monday 15th, and sees their "bullish presidential cycle" still evolving....Remember, these types of oscillators and indexes have been early, late, and, since they are based on only A/D figures, have caused many to miss the rises in the "nifty fifty" stocks in recent years, and miss almost all specific Industry Group price moves, over the years....So why do I occasionally mentioned their output ? Because, people need to know NOT to hang one's decisions on just one such set of indicators, and, sometimes, when their patterns jive with what I see, then it becomes useful only at those times, and you should be alerted....
6) potential biggie item: did I hear Bill Gross of PIMCO, the biggest mgr. of bonds in the world, say, Wed. CNBC< 11:55, that "the long-term bond bull market is over" ? he must also be reading my NL.... 7) Wed. 17th, MER initiates coverage of Omnicom, at $ 71+....at its all-time high....up from 37, up from 17.... 8) Alex, brown finally lowers Tekelec, from a "strong buy" to a "buy" --- after it falls from 23, to 7.... 9) CNBC, Thu. 18th, 8;59 am, had the "hedging" John Rubin, of Platinum Guild Intl., who, when asked his opinion of "the metals" here, actually said, "I think they are anywhere from neutral to semi-bullish, given somewhat contrary proclivities"....that was a quote, gang....And people pay this guy ?
e) Predictable: CNBC story, Wed. 17th, on the paperwork nightmare daytraders have, with schedule D, IRS tax forms, etc., for people who do too many trades yearly, while the discount firms they trade through offer little or no help.... Sometimes, one (doesn't) get what one (doesn't) pay for, yes ? Especially for people who do hundreds of trades a year, yet lose money, who now have to expend many more hours logging sales into forms....Even using Quicken, many fall behind, etc.
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "Covered
(previous) Short Sale", where no puts options existed....
1/2 pos. puts BOBJY (40+ to 24+) for Q % Gain....bal. calls RXSD (13+ to 22+) for Q % Gain....bal. stk.on.mgn. IMG (5++ to 9) for VQ % G....puts NDN (48 to 39+) for VQ % G....bal. calls CNC (29+ to 37+) for VQ % G....calls NWAC (23+ to 28) for % G....1/2 pos. puts CSGS (40- to 32+) for Q % G....bal. calls TOY (14+ to 17++) for VQ % G....puts ECILF (42 to 33+) for VQ % G....bal. stock MB (2+ to 3++) for VQ 50% G....1/2 pos. puts LSI. (28+ to 24+) for VQ % G....puts ASML (47 to 42+) for Q % G....bal. puts LLTC (52 to 42 to 46+) for Q % G....
and/but, longs, CMND, WAXS, ESOL, NOV, FLM, SSC, LXR, PRT, CAS, BIR, TE, and, puts, INKT, LVCI., VRTS, PWAV, UVN, MFNX, VNWK, LNC, CVC, EQ, for very quick, very small losses, of little overall consequence to a properly diversified portfolio....some of these cut PUT sales were "immediate", before you could have even bought their puts, but, in my honesty, I have always included these kinds of puts herein, FYI....I'll also bet almost none of you had Puts in anything recently, anyway....so no biggie, right ?
*** remember, since we ONLY buy long right near lows, and buy put only right near highs, by nature, we are going to have, and must have, some "quick, very small losses", over time....but almost NO "large" losses ever ! versus, many "large" gains, when correct, right ? keep proper perspective.....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy any Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their
patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just
buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with
less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent,
for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions"
have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(new ones) CSR @ 24++, IHS @ 6+, MXTR @ 8.06, OCN @ 8, THC @ 19+, TKN @ 5+,
(NOTE--- Read full list again, carefully, for several New, "re-added"
repeats) AAC @ 3 9/16, ADM @ 14++, AG @ 6 1/8, ALN @ 4 11/16, AOI. @ 2 7/16, APM 3 13/16, BBA @ 3 13/16, BCP @ 5 11/16, BDR @ 6.06, BEZ @ 19+, BGO @ 11/16, BMC @ 4, BXH @ 4 3/4, CAU @ 0.31, CCH @ 3/16, CFS @ 4.06, CLCDF @ 9/16, DAY @ 3/16, DSGIF @ 3, EAR @ 9/16, ECO @ 1 11/16, FAVS @ 4 1/4, FNL @ 5.06, FTL @ 12 5/16, GKI. @ 2 9/16, HDG @ 1.06, HIV @ 1 11/16, HL @ 3 9/16, ISCO @ 1.06, ISSI. @ 2 13/16, KNE @ 20+, KTEC @ 6+, MANU @ 7+, MLP @ 9.06, MSN @ 7/16, NEM 17+, NGX @ 1/2, NWK @ 8, ONST @ 1.06, PAM @ 3 9/16, PIN @ 4.06, PLC @ 3 5/16, PSFT @ 17+, RJF @ 18+, SAA @ 0.75, SCNI. @ 13/16, SOC @ 5 9/16, SSM @ 14+, TBP @ 5, TMAR @ 4 13/16, UMR @ 11/16, UQM @ 4+, VGZ @ 0.17, WAXS @ 7-, WLV @ 19, WTT @ 1 9/16, ZITL @ 2 5/8....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds...."buy low", right ?
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein,
countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT
"just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some
stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes
over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at
times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up
those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for
you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already
moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many
subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and
there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching"
NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly:
the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, FRTE, JDEC, RCGI., WWW, NRL, NHR, SMT, MPS, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol: (new ones) BBT @ 40+, CBS @ 37, CKFR @ 41+, CMGI. @ 194+, CSCO @ 106, ETEK @ 35-, GCTY @ 116, GLC @ 49, HDL @ 12+, MRIS @ 58++, MSPG @ 99+, RTRSY @ 94-, SEPR @ 135+, SONE @ 70-, TRB @ 68-, ZQK @ 40++....
(and, note, some "new" repeats again) ADLAC @ 60, ADTC @ 44-, BMY @ 65+, CTS @ 50-, ECL @ 41, FITB @ 74-, HRL @ 37+, LIN @ 39+, MCLD @ 41-, MHP @ 57, MKL @ 182, MOT @ 64, MTNT @ 53, OK @ 46+, PKN @ 96+, QRSI. @ 50+, ROV @ 28-, SDS @ 41+, SFXE @ 61++, SYKE @ 31, TY @ 29+, VTSS @ 51+ .
Note how some of these "repeated" stocks, popped back up, allowing us to
catch them, again, yes ? For the umpteenth time: recent pops are giving us
(i.e., YOU) mutliple opportunities to catch some of our Puttables, as a stock
go, say, from, 60, to 56, to 60, to 57, to 60, to 58, to 60+, etc., get it ?
each time, provided it does not break its top pattern, it will be (re)added
herein, around 60, get it ? and, it will also be listed in sec. (5) below as +3, or -4, etc., in the meantime, each time it moves, followed-up, for your benefit....get it ? this is a good thing....
and/but, took, EXDS, CACS, NSOL, USAI., FLT, NMR, UTX, WMB, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here).
IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web
site, a stock might break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed EVB/base
pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy, or put"
levels in between NL's, in which case they are still added, as above....So I am
assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying any
Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and
therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted....this takes
just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues
which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then
incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the process is your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", CELL, MWHS, IPIC, CSE, IGL, HPK, SRE, CYB, SCY, PB, DE, AR, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CMCSK, VERT, SCOR, BCST, ELNK, MYLX, ANTC, MUSE, INKT, WSM, FLT, CCL, IBM, DHR, PBI., as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single one of these was specifically given herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you could still have caught them, if you took the time to vies their charts vrecently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
KRY 1 1/8 up 3/8, RXSD 22 7/8 up 5 5/8 (S), GW 1 3/8 up 3/8, TPS 1 up 1/4, HDG 1 1/4 up 1/4, TXB 5 up 1 1/8, PIN 4 7/8 up 7/8, TXM 8 up 1 3/8, IHS 7 1/2 up 1 1/8, AG 6 3/4 up 3/4, RJF 20 3/4 up 2 1/2, MXTR 9 up 1 1/4, NE 17 1/4 up 2, NWK 9 1/2 up 1 1/4, TKN 5 7/8 up 1/2, GSB 23 1/2 up 2 1/4, MAH 12 1/8 up 1, WLV 20 3/8 up 1 1/2, ICI. 38 7/8 up 2 5/8, KNE 21 1/4 up 1, THC 20 3/8 up 1, NWAC 28 1/4 up 1 1/4 (S), CNC 37 7/8 up 1 3/4 (S), OCN 8 3/8 up 1/2, FJ 32 up 2, WHR 49 3/8, MEA 31 3/4, RDC 12 5/8, TMO 14 7/8, OXY 17 1/8, WAC 25 1/4, IMG 9 1/4, CS 9 1/8, HMY 6 5/8, UQM 4 13/16, MSN 3/4, ALN 5, up/further, just since last time here....
note how NWAC, RXSD, TSA, GSB, hit at least their 200 DMA....plus, of course, many Oil Services....and, BSX 38+, NOX 3 1/8, BJS 21 1/4, TSA 8 3/8, CYB, higher, still....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some subscribers
who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds
for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above,
you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and
what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, MRII. 2 1/4 up 3/8, NWK 7 7/8 (B), NETM 3 1/2, 2 3/4, GKI. 2 7/8 up 3/8, TMAR 5 1/2 up 3/4, AAC 4 3/4, 4, XTO 5 7/8, UPX (S), WHR, PIN, FLH 8 1/8, 8 1/2, WLV, PSFT, NEM 17 3/8 (bt.), TMAR, DETC, MANU (B), NVX, KTEC, PIR 9, BCP (B), TAROF, PZN (B), ISSI., CWC, CYM 11 3/8 up 7/8, FTL, UBIX, MRVC (B), BEZ (B), RJF, SRE, PLC (B), CENT, WLM, WND, SAMC, APFC, BUNZ, AIMM, ALN (B), PAM, (B), NPRO, BLM, TFN, COE, NPSI., NDE, MCL, CFS, UMR, MLP, SAA, BBA, WKGP, FNL (B), SUL, CCH, BS, Metals....some of these are also in "ms" list below....obviously, (B) means you can still Buy them....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or
2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or
of "instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) ZITL 3 up 1/2, 2 5/8, ADM 15 1/4, BUNZ, WORK, BBA, CLCDF, PSFT, CNJ, APM, BMC, DETC, MRVC, COE, BXH, ATV, HIV, PLC, UPR, WLV, DSGIF, MANU, CWC, SSM, WLM, NEM, NPRO, CENT, MLP, AIMM, SAMC, AOI., SAA, PZN, TBP, EAR, SAMC, LKI., FNL, RYO, NDE, LFB, BBA, WKGP, MCL, SOC, CAU, WS, TE, cheap golds, oil services....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
*** for the last time: NOTE: also see, now, SFSK below 10 (S), RAD 22, dn 15 (S), DAYR 10+, AMFM, LNCR, METZ, NVLS, PLCM, TSAI., DLTR, APCC, TAGS, CPWR, CPQ, HGR, LFG, DNY, LAF, MRX, NIS, SMI., SKO, CSN, SBL, WPI., XRX, T., all fell still lower....also, see, ECILF, HLYW, WHIT, GLIA, TSS, MRX, NDN, fell to their 200 DMA....and, LSI., fell to 50 DMA....I gave you each of these, near their highs....are you LEARNING the patterns ?
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On next Weakness,
towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously long Puts right
near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up every idea mentioned,
for Your Benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little
time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness.... let them do their thing.
**** IMPORTANT, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and
present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....period....
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow): (some new names here) many, many bounces: remember, as I
have been saying, almost all Puttables must, still, break below their recent
lows, as "follow-through", obviously, including, ATHM +7, -4, GMST +6, XCIT -5, SONE +4, ADLAC +2, -3, PMCS -4 1/2, ORCL +2, LLTC +3, KLAC -2, PMCS -2, RX -1 1/2, MKL -3, ETEC +2, LSI. +3 (sow), GILTF -3, +1, QRSI., ADCT +1 1/2, NXTL, PKN, AMTD +1, -2 1/2, +2, CSGS +2 1/2, NOK/A -3, +3, SEQU, ENVY, GMH, SYKE, VTSS -2, MTNT, CMVT, GGO -1 1/2, +1, MHP +1 1/2, PROX +1, BBT +1, DNEX +2, MOT +3, SDS, IIN, TD, FRX +1, -2 1/2, HRL +1, LSI., SDS....
again, we need to see many stocks break below recent lows/necklines, and, so
far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)"
sales in sec. (3), dig ? seeing too many bounces, but note, how few still make
new highs, yet, right ?
Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn from.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE: obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
Computer/Techs: please see Techs, listed, in the "watching"
section, just below.
(Y2K) "Year 2000": (ZITL, SAA, UBIX, Only near recent lows)
Prec.Metals (NGX, TVX, GLDR, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, BGO, all real cheapies, riskier, most need more work/time)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Copper) (LTV, WLM, BS, RTC, CSE, FNL, IGL, AG, OS)
Energy and Oil Svc. (TMAR, UPR, UMR, KNE, etc., near their recent lows, Only)
Biotech/Health/Medical (TAROF, FHCC, TXB, HIV, COL, IHS)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel/Shoes (KFI., MSN, BLM, HBI.)
Hotel/Gaming/REIT (HMT, PAM, SER)
Utilities as "EVB's" (BGE, CIN, CSR, SRE, TE)
Computer storage/memory (IOM, MXTR, RDRT, WDC)
And, as I pointed out earlier here, some depressed R.E.I.T./Financials/ Mtg.-type/R.E., stocks, many with huge Insider Buying a while ago, some with very high "potential" dividends (more boring, though), may shape up ahead....watching, in no particular order, add, HPT, ESC, TCR, FFD, NHI., to, FCH, MT, CNO, AIJ, EOP, SMT, WIR, LTC, LSN, BD, PRT, WDN, RTC, CPT, ARI., BRE, AAC, ALF, AML, BNP, CPP, CRO, PMC, BED, ENN, FBG, NDE, JPR, MAA, RFS, if you need some maybe's, on pullbacks only)
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy
list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": FRTE, JDEC, RCGI., WWW, NRL, NHR, SMT, MPS, --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first.
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY:
added some more (hey, its what the market tells me to add), added, AFCI., ARW, CEXP, CGN, CHY, DE, DHC, HRBC, IOM, RDRT, WDC, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) AAC, ABH, ACE, ACX, ADGO, ADM, ALN,
AOI., APM, ARG, ATV, BCP, BDR, BEZ, BGE, BKI., BMC, BYX, CBZ, CFS, CFK, CIN, CNB, COC, COMS, CS, CSR, CWC, CYB, DETC, DSGIF, EAR, ECO, ELCO, FAVS, FHS, FJ, FLH, FTL, FTR, GKI., GW, HCC, HDG, HL, HLX, HMY, HPK, IHS, ISSI., IV, JDEC, KNE, KTEC, LUB, LXR, MAH, MAK, MEA, MIDI., MLP, MLT, MRVC, MSN, MWHS, MXTR, NOI., NPSI., NVX, NWK, OCN, OEI., ONST, ORI., OXY, PCAR, PLC, PLX, PSFT, PZN, RML, RSC, RT, SAMC, SEV, SGE, SHOW, SMD, SOC, SRE, SSM, SSN, SWK, SWW, SYC, TBP, TE, TGX, THC, TKN, TMAR, TMD, TMO, TPS, TXM, TWA, UAG, UQM, VMRX, WAC, WEC, WKGP, WLV, WND, WTT, VSNR, XTR, Z., ZITL, still, most all as "EVB's"....
Note, some new Utilities, REIT's, Aero/Defense....some right here, some Not just yet, as some still need more work, technically....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....
Remember, this is just a "watching to possibly buy" list !!! they only
become Buys, when in sec. (3) above, when/if they decline towards lows and hold,
yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over time, when you have a few
minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns ? This is a positive,
not a negative....note, we re-added some previously given names, above
here....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
Fuller, Potential Puts
list, by Industry groups where practical, near their highs ONLY --- do NOT "chase
down" much:
note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the
ONLY Puttables here, all others have been removed....
**** some new ones (half of these are repeated from last time here): add, CMGI., to, ANTC, ATHM, BBBY, BBT, BEBE, BEM, BUD, BXM, CBS, CEC, CKFR, CMA, CTS, DHR, DLJ, DOW, DL, DT, EAT, ECILF, ECL, ELNK, EQ, FITB, GCTY, GLC, HDL, HQ, HRL, IBM, INKT, INSP, NSOL, ODP, OSI., PG, PHCC, PKE, PMI., QRSI., ROST, ROV, RTRSY, SCOR, SDS, TRB, TVGIA, TWTR, VERT, VRTS, WHIT, WTSLA, XCIT, ZQK, and,
("repeats") AAS, ADCT, ALSI., AMO, AOL, ASML, AXNT, BBOX, BBY, BMY, CM, CMCSK, CSCO, CSGS, CSN, CTAS, CTL, CYCLD, DNEX, DS, EGRP, FRX, GILTF, INTU, IPG, LBTYA, LUK, MACR, MANH, MCLD, MCRL, MFNX, MHP, MKL, MLNM, MNMD, MRIS, MSPG, MTNT, NDN, NTLI., NOK/A, OK, PERC, PKN, PWAV, QRSI., SEPR, SEQU, SYKE, TD, TJX, TXN, VOD, VTSS....
but, issues like, ADCT, MXIM, LLTC, VTSS, EGRP, VRTS, ASML, HQ, broke above their S.T. downtrends, they still may form double-tops ahead, but may just NOT be ready yet to be 'put'....
Note, added still more ---again, this is what the market is telling me to
show you is happening....obviously, some of these are already down, and may be
too late if not Put already, yes ? Note, we are also revisiting more previously
given stocks....obviously, a large list here, as I told you to expect
recently....VIEW the charts, before acting....take the time....my goodness, how
else are you going to learn the patterns ?
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic, Retail, Cap. Goods, Blue Chips, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech,
Consumer, Banks, Insurance, Finance, Computer, Internet, Banks, High-PE Techs,
and all Tele.-Commun., near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their
patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
New, quickie lesson: note, with Rexall Sundown, how, only after the stock (which I was the only one to give as a buy near/in its stage 1 base low) was ALREADY way up, from, 13+ to 19+, did some "potential good news" come out, about their selling a "potential cellulite cure" (which, BTW, is mostly hype, of course, but don't get me started on that), which helped the stock higher --- but, NO one else liked "RXSD" near its lows, get it ? There was NO "good news" near its lows....The ONLY way to buy the "PSYCLE sm" way, is to use the CHART pattern.... and, this proves for the upteenth time, how, "if you wait for good news, you miss the lows"....Sure, one "could" buy "on" the "good news", at 19+, and get 22+, but why not just (learn to) buy near bottoms, and lower one's risk, and get a higher potential if correct ? P.S. --- remember, all the analysts loved this stock, and it got write-ups, etc., as always occurs in stage 4, in early 1998, as a "great growth story with good mgmt." --- over $ 30., before it fell to the low teens.... Gee, just as with Rite Aid, before it fell, etc. get it ? hope this helps.... The "saucer base" on RXSD was similar to the Oil Services, and Airlines, and Farm-Eq., recently, yes ? I rest my case....
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort,
researching, finding, and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating
each NL itself, I have not had time to give more "Lessons" here lately, nor to
finish 3 more real valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons
you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7)
educational Booklets, I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm",
from 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those
section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....also take this time to VIEW
charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a stock herein
may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at any
given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in sec.
(3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen or
fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then is pulling back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it
pulls back towards $ 6 again,. without breaking its original pattern, is remains
a buy (sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. 3,
ilisutrates this helpful item....It is very simple, as I have said umpteen times:
all suggested stocks remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original
prices, in the future, provided their original chart pattern is still intact....
period.
Plus, as you have seen among "repeats" in sec. 3, often, a stock WILL
sometimes return to its original actionable price levels, and some will end up
"revalidating" after initial slight breaks of patterns, which is also of little
consequence, since your transaction costs are so low, and you have eliminated all
emotions from the process, you can always get back in, at those times, yes ?
(plus, as I taught you, we give a bit more 'leeway' at the special year-end
period, employing a bit less strict/tight stops, right ?)
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
Remember, WE tend to ONLY trade long, from stage 1, into stage 2, with stops,
and often miss potential stage 3 rises....and we try to Only get Puts at what we
think might be a stage 4 top, with stops, and often miss stage 6 and 7 drops, but
more on that later....The highest-reliability, reward/risk plays, are in stage 1
and 4, even with occasional stops triggered.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is
also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, 2) TRY at least "some"
"Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable,
than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close
stops....no emotion.
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops, and July '98 tops, and drops, have
proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my
main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match
my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously,
have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things,
properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you
actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE
you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows,
for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming
you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from
the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....