Jim Goodman's "PSYCLE sm"

Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, ended formally, back in early April 2000, with issue # 207+, a while ago....(so/but this NL is Not really being actually published formally, publically, any more, and has not been, for quite a while now ....I just wanted a place to keep track of what I would have said and done and felt, since I was forced undeservedly to stop my NL, months ago....this is ONLY for my own edification and proof of the value of my output and concepts to others), and anyone reading this has NOT gotten it from me....
dated: 9:30 am, PST, FTuesday, March 20, 2001

"2001: a Trading Odessey"

or, "The Patterns Rarely Change"

Important Note: this serious, very valuable "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, due to the too-often at least semi-gestapo, uncaring, ridiculous, illogical, NASD/SEC rules, and the uncaring, inconsiderate, and thoughtless nature of most all brokerage firms....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, here, twice each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance, very-long-term track record, and to offer further significant, in-advance, in-writing, 'proof' of the value and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

Even as disappointing as some QSL's are here, balanced partly by gains in Puttables, and many depresseds continue to show accumulation and/or ends of declines signs....and, with 'the 95%' expecting to be disappointed by Fed moves Tue., so I figur(ed) as contrary, many Techs would bounce regardless, even if only 1/2 % lowered rate, dig ?

as I have been saying, I feel/felt the bigger overall risk was not being IN some more of these Techs, vs. having to pay-up later, and/or missing initial pops, which is already happening to many of my followers....my Puts list shrinking, so more part sof the puzzle coming into place - but being careful as always, and no 'scenarios'....

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) those 'fuel cell-type' stocks I gave you here last time still look interesting enuf to consider one soon....hey, guess what? stage 3 rolling alert blackouts in Calif., Monday, again, first time in a little while ....2) continuing to note drops in Financials predicted-by-me-herein-first, 'if' the Fed rate cut is supposed to be so great, 'if' one 'links' such items with future stocks prices of Financials, then how come they are falling ? re-read my Booklets.... 3) as mentioned here last time, note big oversold bounces occuring in Europe and even Asia, just at the monet 'those wrong long from tops', got super-bearish recently - the pattern rarely changes....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) to prove my PSYCLE, sentiment-contrary-wise, CNBC, Fri. aft., said, last Sep./Oct., almost no one expected lower IR's, and, now over 40 % expect lower rates.... late, as usual.... 2) and, as usual, amazingly late, USA. T. 3/16, "now might be time to adjust your (401)K" - great - wait till millions of popeople lose tons of money - unpredicted by your paper- then, right near the lows, suiggest they shift out of Techs, into 'consumer' stocks, which as already up.... the pattern rarely changes....then, allieed column, "Bonds offer shelter from stocks' storm', is also late/high, right ? ditto.... 3) I also liked the front-page picture of a floor-broker smacking his head in anguish, as another S.T. bottom sign, L.A.T. 3/17....they even wrote, "analysts could cite no fundamental catalyst for Friday's drops...." ridiculous....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) 'margin debt' in stocks has fallen from $ 279 B. 3/00, to $ 187 B. recently....another sign that the worst is definitely over....a specialist said, "investors are throwing up their hands and just giving up....this is healthy long-term from here...." agreed.

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) an idiot analyst CNBC, Fri. 10:55, asked about CMGI down here replied, "I wonder what eneryone was thinking when they liked this one at highs...." - which explains a lot about analysts, as you have been taught, ay ? .... 2) in an amazing development, the Munder Funds group, who pioneered the Internet funds a few years ago - then held all the way down to destroy thousands of people, dig ?), just initiated a new Fund....guess what I.G. ? "Energy/Utilities", two groups I have as Puttables here (just like, but not anywhere to the extent as) my "end of Internet stocks soon' call based on their commericals a year or two ago, dig ? wow....another PSYCLE

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....

"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:
still even more (19) Puts Gains for you: bal. puts TMO (31 to 21+) for Q 125% G....bal. puts FRX (70 to 54) for Q 100% G....all puts LIN (37 to 29) for VVQ 90% G....all puts LH (160+ to 121+) for VQ 100% G....all puts BRK.B (2400- to 2100+) for VQ 50% G....bal. puts CAH (103- to 88++) for Q 50% G....1/2 pos. puts AHP (62+ to 54) for VQ 60% G....1/2 pos. puts DJUA (394 to 364) for VQ big % G....bal. puts TLB (54- to 43) for Q 75% G....1/2 pos. puts NBR (63 to 53) for VQ 60% G....1/2 pos. puts BDK (45 to 40) for VQ 50% G....1/2 pos. puts SGR (52+ to 42+) for VVVQ 75% G....all puts PGR (103- to 86+) for VQ 66% G....1/2 pos. puts WPO (630+ to 550+) for VQ 60% G....bal. puts NCC (29- to 25+) for 50% G....all puts NYT (45 to 40) for VQ 44% G....all puts NBR (62 to 54) for VQ 55% G....all puts KEY (28+ to 25) for Q 50% G....1/2 pos. puts UNT (20 to 17) for VQ 60% G....

and/but, longs, UPCOY, IFCI, MNMD, PNK, 2nd pos. INSP, EAS, PNK, CCBL ?, MCLD (w/s ?), and, puts, HSY, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs): **** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:

1/2 pos. ASML @ 20, 1/2 pos. CDO @ 10+, 1/3 pos. DCLK @ 10+, 1/2 pos. JDEC @ 9+, 1/2 pos. KNT @ 14-, MERX @ 11, PMCS @ 31-, SFE @ 5.1, 1/2 pos. SVNX @ 12+, 1/2 pos. TERN @ 3++, W. @ 24+ ?, (note, BRCD, CNXT, BRCM, ALO, PCOP, were NOT bt. yet) - NOPT soon ?
1/2 pos. FBR @ 6, 1/2 pos. VRTA @ 9++,

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): ANDW @ 14+, ATML @ 10-, BGO @ 0.405, BSRTS @ 5 1/2, CALD @ 1 3/4, CAS @ 8.8, CBJ @ 1/4, CCBL @ 8+, CTHR @ 0.85, DITC @ 8+, FILE @ 15, GSPN @ 19, HLIT @ 5+, HNV @ 1/4, HPOW @ 5++, IN @ 5-, IOM eh, KEYN @ 12+, KPN @ 10 1/2 ?, KRY @ 3/4, LOR @ 2.69, LSI. @ 16+, MGG @ 25, MPH @ 15 1/8, NOVL @ 4++, PCH @ 30+, ROS @ 5, SCTC @ 11-, SPCT @ 11+, STHLY @ 10+, TSTN @ 5+, VIGN @ 6 1/8, ZMBA @ 1.6...."buy (only) low", right ? (note, MLT, was NOT bt., removed B4)

** Important: took, JAZZ, LU, MLT, SAH, MBK, TSU, WCG, SWS, BRCM, KTC, FCS, CS, KEP, PWER, NEWP, ORCL, CNXT, KNT ?, JS, GENE, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.".... we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops:
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/1 pos. ADVP @ 50-, 1/2 pos. HSIC @ , 1/2 pos. KPP @ 34-, 1/2 pos. SKX @ 28,

"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') AGC @ 40+, BRO @ 39+, CHTR @ 24-, CNT @ 47+, GCO @ 27-, GIS @ 45-, NOI. @ 40, PIR @ 14, PPL @ 46, UNT @ 20+, DJ. Util. Avg. @ 394,

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, CPN, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", BCU, NOPT, PRGN, QTRN, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, STJ, CEFT, SSSS, ALL, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks ....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein ....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....
4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):
(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).

acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn the pattern, more:
still more nice Gains for you:
TERN 4.53 up 1.03, VIGN 7.31 up 1.12, VRTA 12.06 up 1.72, FILE 16 1/2 up 1 3/4, SPCT 13 3/8 up 1 3/4, LSI. 18.60 up 2, PMCS 35 3/4 up 4 3/4, IN 5.58 up 0.58, SFE 5.68 up 0.68, MERX 11.81 up 0.81, KNT 15.21 up 1.36, DCLK 11.31 up 1.26, JDEC 9.96 up 0.59, ASML 21 1/4 up 1 1/4, OS 5.50, KNT 15.2, CDO 10.7, TSTN 6.43, higher since last NL here....and, NZT approached its 200 DMA....

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and more bounces after pullbacks:
GSPN 24- up 4-, CALD, SNBC, CCBL, PPE, ANDW 15 1/2 up 1 1/4, PMCS 33 3/8, CTHR, NCX, PCH 30.61, KRY, RCG, NOVL 4.71 (B), ATML, FILE 15.6, CAS 8.8, KEYN 13 1/4, HA, DITC 8 3/8, SVRN, USI, SHM, HNV, VRA, STTX, TG....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....

and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:

(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) HLIT 5 1/4, 6 1/2, 6, LNUX 2 7/8 (sos), CCRT, PAP, SNBC, CHRS, NMSS, MXBIF, ANAD 14+ (sos), CTHR, INSP 2.7 oy, KPN 10 1/2 dn 1 1/2, KANA, STG, SCTC, EEX 3.93, 4.13, MGG 25, ANDW (soso)....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, stick around:
Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out to learn:
SGR -10 (sow), MCK -5 (sow), FRX -5 (sow), EMR -5 (sow), CAH -5 1/2 (S), PGR -4 (S), LIN -5 1/2 (S), SKX -4, BRK.B -77 (S), WPO -37, ZION -1 1/4, MTB -2, TMO -1, TLB, BRO -2, NYT -1 1/2 (S), ZION -1 1/4, EIX -1, PCG -1 1/4, SNV -1, CV -1, AEP, BDK, lower since last NL here....while, PGR, TLB, CAH, NBR, WPO, apprroached/hit their 200 DMA....and, KRB 30+, STJ 47, CHRW 23, NTAP 20-, ADRX 40, NTRS 60-, down even further still....

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
: LNCR, CYTC, CHTR, EXC -1, KEY -1 (S), MNI, CMH, PPL, MTB, NCC -1 (S), RL +1 3/4, STI. -2, NOI. +1 1/2, UNT +2, BDK +1 1/2, PCG +3/4....this ends our 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):

these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (BSRTS, FRT, HCN, TCC, ARJ, TCO, JPR, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (CAS (also nice pot. div.), CBJ, KRY, STTX, KGC, etc.)
depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, and most Chem., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Papers ?, and Apparel, issues....
and, Regional Banks/Finls. (RBNC, TBNC, HOMF, CWCO, on bigger pb's only, etc.)

*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, data storage, internet, software, emi., comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not broken down, nor popped up too much recently, already, before you buy, as I removed a bunch already-up's, and broken-down's from last NL list here) added, UAL, MCD, X, W, ABY ?, AU, CDO, NCX, PGO ?, PHI, SGI, NR, PTR, ACTM, CTC, EMT, PHI, PYX ?, BBOX ?, BRIO, CTXS ?, STXN, JDEC, PMCS, QTRN, PMRY, HLTH ?, SVNX ?, SNWL, PRGN, ITCD ?, ADBE, DT, GLGC, to, DCLK, GSPN, NOPT, SPCT, TRLY, VIGN, EEX, CSCO, BRCD ?, UCOMA, ATML, MERX, VRTA, XRX eh, HLIT, IOM, MRD, ROS, SCR.A ?, CALD, GX, LSI, FBR, MPH, PNK ?, APCC, MGG, ASYT, MLNM, RNWK, TERN, NOVL, CLRS, SFE, PRSF, HPOW, NMSS, LOR, IN, SONE, DITC, CTHR, PPE ?, PCH, CCBL, FCTR, CBR, APF, FNV, CAS, KGC, RCG, TRAC, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns ....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, as all others have been Removed:

* add, (note list shrinking again a bit, mostly due to Gainers gave you): ADVP, BMET, HSIC, EQT ?, HF, SKX, KPP, ASBC, ALL, CF, BDK, GCO, NOI, SNV, SSP, SKE, STI, UNH, FRE, TJX, to, JCI, RL, PBG, IVGN, LNCR, PCG, AEP, ADM, CV, EXC, TDW, WAG, MTB, CHCS, ALSI, PIR, EXPD, PPDI, CHTR, DUK, CMCSK, GIS, MET, PX, OK, PNC, UNT, BRO, CYTC, CNT ?, PPL, INSUA, CMH, KEY, MNI., IDPH, DHI, from recent past NL's....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services (but some are already down, yes ?), Commercial Services, Tobacco, Trans., Enterprise/software, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Fuel Cell, Homes-related/bldg., Computer/Internet/Software/Services, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES