1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

Whew, at least a V.S.T. bottom....Again, so far, except for a small number of puzzling QSL's and a few clunkers, we recommended taking many more Puts gains recently, which I, again, could not convince my people to do, and we are getting plenty of Tech. stocks not making new lows, many which I also had trouble getting the people I care about most, to take advantage of, regardless of any real or perceived external/fundamental/news items, recently....while adding more longsiders which had/have not yet broken as Buyable....and still having plenty of buying power to deploy as desired....hope you are in....

I felt, yesterday, that this probable 'Tech. stock rally' would be better than any in recent weeks, from a sentiment p.o.v., hope you are in them heavier....to me was so obvious one should (have) deploy(ed) money longside no matter what, understanding normal cycles and 'super oversold' conditions....at the close Tues., after Fed's I.R. drop, CNBC's Tom Costello, said, we "got tremendous shorting here at the close....tons of people scratching their heads on these new declines...." While I was also surprised at late massive selling Tuesday (so my major client was right, so far, and I had some VQ, VS losses longside), I still see plenty hanging in, and cannot/could not fathom new shorters being right much longer from recent lows - or else 'the whole world declines to zero, and there is no hope ever for even the smartest people around in many companies - which, of course, is impossible, if one steps back for proper perspective....

CNBC after Tue. close, said, the last bunch of times Fed lowered rates, the S & P actually fell 80 % of the time, initially, for a short time, before Big Rises after....and, that, as I have taught for years, when the rise off the lows comes, a bunch of it comes the first several days - meaning, again, one must continue to be IN, with stops, all along, and not 'waiting for a perfect monment and not buying stuff all along"....again, after the last 5 recent times the Fed lowered rates 3 straight times, 1982-86-89-96-98, the S & P rose + 10 % to +25 % after, the next 6-12 months....certainly presenting the bigger opportunity, vs. any further risk from these low levels on Techs, etc.

Recently, as previously suggested herein, the 'CBOE volatility index' spiking up, normally would presage a bottom, not happening yet, until yesterday....could it be that this indicator useless now ? I mean, it even worked correctly twice in the last 12 months....Thu., Pisani, 7:36, showed the CBOE volatilty the highest here since April last year, just before nice rises in many stocks I gave out then, and had trouble convincing people to take advantage of then as well....another pattern, ay ? also, internal A/D volume ratios are showing amazingly oversold readings....

a sharp guy on CNBC, Thu. 12:30, pointed out similarities tecnically now, to 1981-82 lows, and, I have been saying, to end of 1983-84 Tech. wreck bottoms, as you know....catch the coming rallies at your discretion....and, as I did some buying Thu., I still say the bigger faux pas will be not buying the Techs down here regardless....

and, say what you wish, but plenty of Pension money IS going to be buying many stocks real soon....it has to....actually, in a potentially bullish mode, 'if' they all said LAST spring that that Pension money was so bullish for Techs they were all buying into parabolas, back then, which then fell (right ? while I was warning, in those, yes ?), then that money should, incorrectly, not be buying Techs this time, which should have them Rising from here soon, in contrariness, yes ?

Ted David, Thu. 8 am, called declines, "endless....", and said, "viewers are asking, "why should I even keep watching CNBC ? this will never end...." - more end-of-the-decline sentiment statements if I ever heard them, yes ? meanwhile, as we take more and more Puts Gains, I see more and more stocks approaching their 200 DMA, and support, and our Puts list shrinking, and you know what THAT normally presages....the pendulum shifts back....are you in enuf ?

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) was the T-bond a 'fobo' ? opnly now, do I hear/read/see more Bond analysts and Funds mgrs. recommending Bonds as a "great investment from here" - as usual, late, and unlikely to be so, vs. the depressed stocks they are likely to miss from lows ahead/here, yes ? and, Thu., CNBC guys 'say' all spectrum of Bonds making new highs, but I do not see it on the charts.....weird ....2) their inner-volatility should help our depressed Semis as they bounce real soon, as al the wrong-way analysts now hate them forever, yet their stock seem to be bottoming....will I, as usual, be among the very first to have given them out at Buys ? ....3) as Financials groups approach their 200 DMA, looking to take more Puts Gains in them, rotating into more Techs, etc., yes ? ....4) will I also be among the first/few to suggest the DOW decline as the 'hook' story for the Tech. stock bottoms ?

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) in near-perfect PSYCLE behavior, Wed./Thu./Fri., CNBC reporter asked M. Fund guy, "what issues should be sold to raise cash here ?" - right at at least a S.T. bottom, get it ? ....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) Wed., the Govt. ann. that 'the core inflation rate rose higher than in recent years, again', as seemingly I alone was first to predict herein a while ago, but balanced by lower rates ? ....2) and, gee, since when is just 1/4 % diff. all that important to markets, as the 'disappointed hopeful people' felt, after Fed move Tuesday ? ....3) remember, in normal PSYCLE nuance, as with/in every 'recession' before, most STOCKS will ALREADY have risen nicely, BEFORE we are 'out of any economic downturn', right ? so, one must Buy BEFOREhand, like, down here, yes ?

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) do they realize how stupid they sound ? : B of A, Monday, "reiterated their strong buy on LBRT, while estimating continued losses for 2001 and 2002, and maintained their target at $ 55." - after loving it all the way down from 35 to 7 recently, dig ? and they get paid for this ? ....2) Wed., Michael (mostly short) Murphy says 'buying panic ahead'....tremendous cash reserves on sideline dying to buy, etc., I finally agree with him.... 3) more non-kudos to all the B-firms who finally downgraded FLEX and SLR< Wed., after loving them all the way down.... 4) BIll Seidman, whom, as I said, I like and admoire on a certain level, said, Thu. 8:20 am, CNBC, "just ride this out, don't do anything...." This from a guy bullish all the way down, ain't helping millions of people, thanks for nothing, guy....

5) more potentially decent news, Richard (truly overrated and bearish all the way up in recent years) Russell, of Dow Theory NL, Thu. after close, predicted a DOW 4 to 5,000 down in 2 years, and no hope in sight, even from here....good.... and, as usual, their (useless) 'Dow Theory' (don't get me started, re-read my Booklets) confirmed "the beginning of a bear market" only recently ! right near probable lows ! amazing, huh.....not to us.... 6) Joe 'perma-bull all the way up, AND all the way down' Battapaglia, CNBC after Thu. close, still super-bullish....said last time we had current similar bond-stock conditions was in 3/95, before a nice rise in stocks....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....