1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
BUT --- Real, S.T. only, many stocks, and indexes reached "Very S.T. only" oversold support, Tue./Wed. already....for instance, all 30 DJIA stocks fell, Tues., which is rare, and usually marks the END of a very, very S.T. drop, and/or such support, S.T. only....The last time it did that, was 8/27/98, very close to the lows, last year, dig ? ....also the Arms index was historically very oversold at 1.76, again, these are S.T. only, bounce levels, and NOT "the bottom of this correction, forever !" BUT --- this may still, just be a snap-back rise, among many extended stocks....So I remain unconvinced, even given the Q, S losses in some longs, and bounces in many Puttables....Hey, sometimes even I am a bit confused, so I step back, and relax, and await clearer times/patterns, as you should....re-read my "Mastering Psychology" booklet....Bottom line: we need(ed) bounces to Put stocks Into, so such bounces are normal here....But weakness among depresseds is a bit worrisome....Again, this bounce is NOT convincing, nor super-bullish !
Obviously, Many "hypothetical transactions" in sec. (3), and TONS, of drops-and-bounces in sec. (5) below, in this NL....embrace the volatility, do not get messed up by it....step back, gain perspective, VIEW the charts, especially Puttables, tops often form with at least a few "bounces around" the toppy formations, right ? re-read my "mastering the Downside" booklet....
Re-read my "Media" and "Scenarios" booklets....the most recent B.S. "Kosovo" junk is just another in a long line of similar instances of political NON-linkable stories, which the Media over-reports, of NO "D.A.F.P.P.V." to any stocks....Now, several CNBC reporters, Tues., are saying that analysts are saying this is just a "technical pullback in a continuing bull market....they are not concerned....this is an orderly, benign sell-off....they are looking to buy any pullbacks, stocks that were most recently the strongest...." (all actual quote snippets) oy. Of course, these are the same people who held all the way down last summer, yes ?
Also, Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL
applicable, staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable,
"PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever
I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of,
for YOUR educational/trading benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most
Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And note, the
"learning/feeling/sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2) and (8).
Longer lists and I.G.'s, are in section (6) and (7)....and all follow-ups, are in
sections (4) and (5). Eight, Very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for
not taking advantage.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?): 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) RE: "Copper" commodity rising, seemingly 'from out of nowhere': gee, who was the first to give out "land-based" depressed stocks, including some Copper stocks, near their lows ? ....2) Note, as expected/predicted herein, DJ Utility avg. stopped right at S.T. resistance, 307 -ish, as did the DJ Trans. Avg., around 3,400 S.T. double-top ? ....3) related: CNBC's Ron Insana, 11 am, Tues., said, "Oil price rises cause drops in Trans. stocks"....excuse me ? Didn't the Airline stocks RISE, as predicted herein, WHILE the Energy stocks also rose, also as predicted herein, simultaneously ? NO links !!! ....4) so far, my H & S top prediction for you on Internets, is mostly correct....but, again, they must still break below recent lows ! ....5) re: "disk drive/storage" stocks, as I said, still not yet, took two eentsy VVQ, S, L losses.... 6) re: our growing list of "watching" Defense/Aero. stocks, relative to other stocks, the "def./aero" indexes are depressed, and trying to base....may still take a while, but watching them.... with recent "super-negative news" that Boeing's orders fell the worst in years, which is a good L.T. sign, "PSYCLE-wise", yes ? I will let you know when.... 7) last, cash Gold, still not ready yet, we are still into expected pullbacks, needs more work.... 8) looks like my S.T. top in Energy is correct....I hope you did not hang around in greed or excitement, as "the 95 %" were suckered in recently, buying late, from profitable sellers, yes ? As I said, only after/on bigger pullbacks, we may well get back in....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, improper comments from Financial Media,
Reporters, etc.: 1) oy....Tues., heard two reporters, on CNBC and KWHY, giving as "supposed reasons" for recent drops in Computer stocks, lower sales growth of PC's, etc., as if that was/is a "new" thing....gee, I pointed out that very prediction for you herein, weeks ago (read my booklet on "Scenarios")....Of course, they never let me tell people, to warn them of "PDSYCLE sm" tops in many stocks....I am certainly the only guy around, to have given COMS and CPQ and DELL, as tops near their highs.... 2) you know I hate fundamentals, but, evidently, Japan's internal computers will be first to go to a 2000 fiscal year, supposedly testing the "Y2K" system.... 3) CNBC's Joe Kernan (again) Wed. 24th, 12:45, showed some "fallen angels", in a negative light near their lows (of course, he, and many analysts, were excitedly bullish near their tops, a while ago, but I digress) , on, SFSK, PTX, RDRT, and FSII....interesting, since I gave out SFSK, PTX, RDRT, as Puttables in past NL's, near their 1998 tops, and, also, am watching RDRT now, for possible second base down here....Once again, the always hit them only when they are down....he's super-bearish on these 4, so look for them to base, ahead, dig ?
Brief "PSYCLE sm" Lesson: another CNBC reporter, Thu. 25th, 9 am: "it's really simple: when the market's up, there are more buyers than sellers, and when the market's down, there are more sellers than buyers"....God, if I hear that ignorant, WRONG, misleading comment again....Learn This: the "number" of traders means NOTHING, compared to the amount of "shares" traded, and, the prices at which stocks are traded....Think about it: what if there is just one big buyer/seller, vs. many sellers/buyers ? HE would say, stock has to fall, right ? But, in one of many isuch instances, what if that ONE buyer is a takeover ? One buyer, yet many sellers, right ? But the stock skyrockets up, yes ? Case closed. Remember, there is ALWAYS one share sold/bought, for every share bought/sold, on the other side of every transaction, yes ? Gotta sell/buy, from/to someone else, right ? There are NO one-sided transactions on Wall St. In a way, there can never be more or less shares bought/sold, than sold/bought, yes ? Therefore, the 'number of people involved' does not matter, most all the time....Anyway, this whole little diatribe is a waste of time, and should not be in one's brain in the first place....Just wanted YOU to know the facts, so you won't let such drivel from reporters affect your belief system.
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.: 1) with Coca-Cola being mentioned on CNBC all day Tues., note, how, twice now, KO hit, but was turned back by, its still-falling 200 DMA resistance....neat, huh.... 2) have you heard new commercial, for a new "Nasdaq 100" index to trade ? the guy says, "here's the chance to buy all the issues you have missed"....wow....was/is that a perfect "PSYCLE sm" S.T. top item, or what ? ....3) Joe Kernan, CNBC, 10:50 am, Tues., highlighted "ICOS" stock, already at its all-time high, of course.... please view its 5-year chart, and see where I specifically bought it, for real clients back then, in its "PSYCLE sm" base, at $ 3+ or so, I remember ....Of course, back then, the "expert analysts" hated all the cheapie Biotech stocks, yes ? I also had CNTO, and others, near base lows back then....Master I.G.R. !!! ....4) Barron's, 3/15, within that "New Nifty Fifty" article, item, reminding "fundamental" buyers-near highs, that at current PE's, the Internet stocks are already "mathematically discounting a 29 % compunded annual growth over the next 10 years, already implying/pricing another 13-fold rise in the next ten years--- but their stocks are reflecting those expected/implied ten-years-out values, today." Hope this is clear....To that author, this is unprecendented in this century. Question: if "the economy" slows, from where will this future expected 'fundamental' growth come ? from overseas ? perhaps some, but things CANNOT continue at their current pace, in the U.S., or with these companies, market-value wise....plus, how can foreign countrries explode upward, if the U.S. does not continue to buy as much stuff from them ? (my note: and recently, you had technical chart pattern help for Internet Puts, as well) ....5) amazingly useless: Wed. 24th, Chevron just raised their estimates for Crude Oil prices --- get this --- from $ 12.30 to 14.30 for 1999, and from $ 14.00 to 15.30 for the year 2000 .... Excuse me ? a) weren't they WRONG, then ? and, b) haven't those levels already been achieved ? Geez....No one else has pointed this out....thanks for nothing, Chevron....
d) more, late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) huge: Abbey Cohen, who, as I said, is likely to become a contrary indicator in her "stage 4 undeserved superfame", actually wasted time, Wed., "raising" her est. for 1999, to DOW 10,300 and S & P 1,325....but, gee, that's not much higher than recent highs, yes ? What does THAT tell you ? ....2) Gerald Appel, he of overrated repute (but solidly in the "old boy's NY clan"), who was bullish before last summer's drop, and NOT bearish before the recent drops, said, on KWHY-tv, Tues. 23rd, 9 am, "yeah, we can see a S.T. top here for the OTC stocks, but a bottom due in 4 or 5 days, then much more bullish again, higher" hey, in many cases, he already missed the tops, yes ? ....3) a major B-firm initiated coverage of "EGGS" here at $ 20., major-league bullish....check its 2-year chart, and see where I gave it, 2 or 3 times, herein, real money, as base buys, in the 3-6 area....see the bases ? ....4) when Bert Dohmen-Ramirez, a vastly overrated-long-term NL guy, has meshed with my market feelings, like in 1982, 1987, and last Spring, that has usually been a good thing.....he was on KWHY-tv, Tues., as extremely bearish, "I wouldn't buy anything here"....of course, he also is super-scared of "Y2K", and said, "the markets may not even open after Jan. 1, 2000", which is probably a little over-the-top, yes ? Why do many other NL guys have to be SO controversial, as to render any useful elements of their opinions, less believable ? ....5) all day Tues., heard analysts talk about this being a "healthy, needed correction, and not due to 'Kosovo'"....yeah, right....CNBC's Martha McCallum, actually said, 10:45 am, "a few weeks ago we had nothing to be bearish about" in the market....Right ! That's why I have recommended so many Puts, you ignorant-about-Psycles reporter....
5) the bullish-also from last year's top with no hedges or sales, Goldman, Sachs' Abbey Cohen, recently reiterated her bullishness in Barron's, 3/15, saying, from Dow 10,000, "the economy is absolutely terrific, and stock prices should continue to rise in the months ahead....upbeat prospects." She's likely cruisin' for bruisin' as well.... 6) also, Barron's, 3/15, P.Q. Wall, one of the worst prognosticators since 1980 or so, super-bearish after the 1987 crash, for years, then super-bullish before the 1990 drop, and super-bearish after last year's drops, is now super-bullish again....He's one of many long-term, multi-year INCORRECT "Kondratieff Wave" guys who, for decades, have all been awaiting the Apocolypse (but who, with many others of his ilk, have taken $ millions from subscribers and customers, and they still have followers, which is really upsetting, but I digress)....of course, he's still super-bearish after the year 2000 ends, still expecting a global collapse....Gee, haven't many other countries, like, Far East, Russia, third world, already HAD some kind of "collapse" ? ....7) Jim Dines, super-bear from the 1987 lows, until correctly catching the Internets still buys all the Internets, even way up here....saying, KWHY-tv, Tues. 23rd, 11:40 am, "this is just another S.T. hiccup, getting the bears all excited, but not amounting to much, before much bigger rises ahead...." Gee, when was the last time you called even a S.T. top in anything ? ...8) CNBC reported, Wed. 24th, 9:15 am, that not ONE single analyst was "not super-bullish" on IBM, at its recent top area....and just ONE analyst questioned its earnings, recently, into stocks' fall....normal for stage 4, S.T., yes ?
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "Covered
(previous) Short Sale", where no puts options existed....
many new gains, please read thoroughly: puts ENVY (54 to 39-) for VQ 111% Gain....puts GILTF (64 to 48+) for VVQ 90% G....bal. calls GSB (16+ to 23+) for VQ 175% G....puts KLAC (58 to 47) for VQ 111% G....1/2 pos. calls ICI. (32- to 38+) for 111% G....bal. calls WAC (20 to 25) for Q 100% G....puts SLVN (34 to 25+) for VQ 111% G....1/2 pos. puts VOD (193 to 166) for Q 111% G.... 1/2 pos. puts RTRSY (95- to 80+) for VQ 100% G....1/2 pos. puts SEPR (135+ to 115) for VQ 100% G....1/2 pos. puts CLX (130- to 116-) for VQ 100% G....puts IPG (78 to 69+) for VQ 90% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. CS (7++ to 10) for VVQ 60% G....1/2 pos. puts CSGS (40- to 33+) for Q 80% G....puts MHP (57 to 50) for Q 75% G....puts DNEX (39+ to 33+) for 90% G....puts EAT (29+ to 24+) for VQ 80% G.... puts BMY (65 to 58) for Q 90% G....puts ROST (46++ to 39+) for VQ 90% G....puts GLC (50- to 44+) for VQ 80% G....puts HLI. (57 to 52+) for 66% G....bal. stock CFK (1 1/2 to 2 1/4) for 44% G....calls CENT (14- to 15++) for small % G....Obviously, as with buys, one must be real nimble with sales, as well, given the volatility here....for the umpteenth time, we tend to lean towards being more conservative, TAKING, Q, large % Gains when have them, and Not sticking around, when ideas even approach saleable levels, "hoping" for more....
and/but, longs, MANU, MXTR, MRVC, ZITL, UBIX, SCNI., CHY, PZN, CFS, SRE, HMY, FTL, THC, and, puts, GMH (51 to 46 to 51), ADCT (44 to 41 to 44), SEQU, XOMD, ZQK, for very quick, very small losses, of little overall consequence to a properly diversified portfolio ....some of these cut PUT sales were "immediate", before you could have even bought their puts, but, in all honesty, I have always included these kinds of puts herein, FYI....I'll also bet almost none of you had Puts in anything recently, anyway....so no biggie....But, as I said above, also seeing too many depresseds breaking....we do not fight the tape.....but these rare, real small losses among long-siders are disappointing....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy any Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their
patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just
buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with
less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent,
for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions"
have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(new ones) AFCI. @ 7+, ANDW @ 11+, BDT @ 3 1/4, CFS @ 3 13/16, DHC @ 3 1/4, GDC @ 2+, IPIC @ 3-, OLGC @ 3+, SGE @ 7++, SWW @ 2 5/16, SYBS @ 5 1/2, TCA @ 8 1/8,
(Note --- even smaller list) ALN @ 4 5/8, AOI. @ 2 7/16, APM 3 11/16, ARG @ 8 3/16, AZC @ 9/16, BBA @ 3 3/4, BCP @ 5 11/16, BEZ @ 19+, BGO @ 11/16, BMC @ 4, BSE @ 25+, BXH @ 4+, CAU @ 0.31, CCH @ 3/16, CLCDF @ 9/16, DAY @ 3/16, DETC @ 8 5/8, DSGIF @ 2 7/8, EAR @ 9/16, ECO @ 1 11/16, FAVS @ 4.06, FWC @ 12-, GKI. @ 2 5/8, GSR @ 3/4, HDG @ 1.06, HIV @ 1 11/16, HL @ 3 9/16, ISCO @ 1.06, ISSI. @ 2 11/16, KTEC @ 6+, LKI. @ 7.06, LTV @ 5 5/16, NGX @ 1/2, OCN @ 8-, ONST @ 1.06, ORI. @ 18+, PAM @ 3 5/8, PIN @ 4.06, RML @ 19-, SAA @ 0.75, SOC @ 5 5/8, SSW @ 2 3/8, TKN @ 5+, TMAR @ 4 13/16, UMR @ 11/16, UQM @ 4+, VGZ @ 0.17, WKGP @ 1 11/16, WTT @ 1 9/16....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds...."buy low", right ?
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein,
countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT
"just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some
stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes
over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at
times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up
those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for
you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already
moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many
subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and
there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching"
NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly:
the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, PRT, BGE, CIN, SER, BDE, SMD, HMT, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks, some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL. LEARN the patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol: (new ones) ADVP @ 57+, COST @ 90+, DHR @ 52++, EGRP @ 61+, IBI. @ 45-, INSS @ 69-, MACR @ 41+, MBRS @ 36-, NEG @ 56++, NTAP @ 55-,
(and, note, some "new" repeats again) ADCT @ 43++, ADLAC @ 64-, BUD @ 77++, CNCX @ 60++, CSCO @ 107+, EBAY @ 162, FITB @ 74, MKL @ 182, MOT @ 64-, MXIM @ 53-, NT @ 61, NTLI. @ 84, ODP @ 36, QRSI. @ 50+, TY @ 29+....
*** IMPORTANT: you have NO excuses for not having had Puts....for instance, just recently, FITB, QRSI., ADLAC, IIN, TY, ODP, LLTC, OK, MKL, TYC, MOT, MXIM, NT, etc., gave you MULTIPLE opportunities to catch their Puts, as their stocks hit their "put levels" given here, at least a few times, and were clearly do-able "repeats" here in several NL's, over time ! That said, right now, this week, given bopunces Thu., it is going to real difficult for anyone to catch Internets, and "bouncers"....this will be a temporary condition, so stay on the ball, and watch them more closely than usual, here....
and/but, took, SUNW, MSFT, ANF, CEC, PG, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....any new highs = off the puts list....
IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web
site, a stock might break its extended S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy, or put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still Added, as above....So I am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying any
Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and
therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted....this takes
just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues
which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then
incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the process is Your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", AGU, ONX, REV, LUB, SIL, RII., MLHR, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CYCL, NTBK, GENZ, SCMM, XMCM, MSFT, AEOS, VRTS, VRIO, XLNX, TSFW, MCRL, ASND, AMAT, INKT, GLW, FNM, RKY, EQ, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock here was specifically given herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts vrecently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
GDC 3 1/2 up 1 3/8, AOI. 3 1/8 up 3/4, AIMM 2 1/4 up 3/8, GKI. 3 up 1/2, SYBS 6 3/8 up 1 1/8, BDT 3 3/4 up 5/8, UPR 10 7/8 up 1 1/4, MAH 13 1/8 up 1 1/2, CNJ 17 7/8 up 2, WHR 51 1/4 up 3, TCA 8 5/8 up 5/8, WLV 20 1/2, CYM 13 1/8, MLP 9 7/8, AR 15 7/8, TPS 1 1/4, SGE 8, up/further, just since last time here....also note, DE rose above, CS, hit, CSE approached, their 200 DMA (S)....ATW hit double-top around 31 (S), and Inco, hit 15, I gave you near low in past NL....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some subscribers
who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds
for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above,
you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and
what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, HDG 1 1/4 up 1/4, AOI. 2 7/8 up 1/2, XTO 7 3/8 up 5/8, NDE 11 up 1, ARG 8 3/4 up 5/8, RJF 20 1/2 up 1, KNE 21 1/8 up 7/8, COE 5 1/4, 4 7/8, NPSI. 12 3/4, CS 8 1/2, TXB 3 7/8 dn 1 1/8, UPR 10, PAM, ORI., NWK, NETM, TMAR, AAC, XTO, SCZ, NVX, PIN, FLH, FWC, SOC, DETC, NVX, KTEC, TAROF, ISSI., CWC, BEZ, KRY, SAMC, APFC, BUNZ, ALN, BLM, ADM, TFN, MCL, UMR, SAA, BBA, WKGP, SUL, CCH, IHS, BS, RT, MEA up 1, FJ up 1, Metals, Papers....some of these are also in "ms" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2 ....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or
of "instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) BXH, DSGIF, ICI., FAVS, OCN, ADM, BUNZ, ELY, WORK, BBA, CLCDF, APM, BMC, DETC, COE, ATV, HIV, CWC, SSM, NEM, FLH, ADM, SAMC, SAA, FTR, EAR, SAMC, RYO, NDE, PAM, BBA, MCL, WKGP, CAU, WS, DSGIF, FWC, MSN, cheap golds, oil services....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
(cont'd.) CKFR -1 1/2, MCLD -1 1/2, TRB -1 1/2, SDS -1 1/2, CTS -2, BUD -2, ROV -1 1/2 (sow), SLVN -1 1/2 (S), VTSS -2, MXIM -2, PWAV -2, ECL -2, NT -2, ODP -1 1/2, TVGIA -1, SYKE -1, LLTC -1, MTNT -2, IIN -2, IPG -1 (S), OK -2, VCELA -1, CMVT -1, ROST (S), MBRS -1, CNMD, SCOR, GLC -1 (S), EAT -1 (S), XLNX, HDL, BBT, DT, TY, TD -1, down/further, just since last time here....also, see, I gave you, PGNS, 12, dn 22, near its high herein, and, DELL, ORCL, SAPE, WSM, LXK, MPO, BEL, lower still....I am still giving you plenty of declining Puttables, yes ?
** we are, once again, at a stage where we see many previously PUT stocks, already down, now at "necklines" of "pyramid' chart formations, dig ? hence the "1/2 pos(ition) sales in sec. (3) above....obviously, when/if they break recent lows, it's look-out-below time....but, many are having bounces off the "necklines", so if one wishes to play it conservative, take partial or total Puts profits there....or, stay in, for potential breakdowns further....this is up to you....also, note, GILTF, ENVY, EAT, BMY, LXK, MYG, NDN, fell to their 200 DMA ....up ahead, expect to see more extendeds falling to their 50-and 200- DMA's.... like, GCTY, SEPR, fell to their 50-DMA....like, ORCL, ROST, GLC, ROV, etc. Do VIEW all these 7 charts, to "see" the top pattern and decline to their 200 DMA's....how else are you going to learn it ?
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On next Weakness,
towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously long Puts right
near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up every idea mentioned,
for Your Benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little
time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....
let them do their thing.
**** IMPORTANT, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and
present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....period....
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow): (some new names here) many, many bounces: remember, as I
have been saying, almost all Puttables must, still, break below their recent
lows, as "follow-through", obviously, including, EBAY +25, YHOO +21, CMGI. +21, GCTY +16, MSPG +8, INTU +7, TXN +7, NOK/A + 6, EGRP +6, SONE +6, CNCX +5, NTAP +5, CSCO +5, CMVT +5, NTLI. +5, COST +4, GMST -2, PROX -1, +4, MTNT +3, LLTC +3, ETEC +3, MACR +2 1/2, LSI. -2, CM +2 1/2, CL +3, -3, +3, DHR +2, VTSS +1 3/4, ADVP +2, CNMD +2, HRL +1 1/2, NXTL -3, PHCC +3, -2, PKN +3, FRX +3, ETEK, NT +2, MRIS -1, ODP, FITB -1, ADLAC -3, AMCC, QRSI., MOT +2 1/2, CSGS -1, +3, HDL +1, SDS, CTAS +3, RTRSY, GGO, CTS +2, TYC -2, TY, TD....obviously, we got some wild bounces, especially in Internets, Wed./Thu.
again, we need to see many stocks break below recent lows/necklines, and, so
far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)"
sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own, regarding "bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns !
Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn from.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
*** Note, these lists are shrinking....
Computer/Techs: please see all Techs, listed, in the "watching" section, just below.
Prec.Metals (GSR, NGX, TVX, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, BGO, all real cheapies, riskier, most need more work/time)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Copper) (LTV, BS, RTC, FNL, IGL, AG, OS)
Energy and Oil Svc. (TMAR, UPR, UMR, KNE, etc., near their recent lows, Only)
Biotech/Health/Medical (FHCC, TXB, HIV, COL, IHS, EAR
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy
list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": PRT, BGE, CIN, SER, BDE, SMD, HMT, --- were taken Off ....These/they just need more work, technically....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms ....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first, and/or more fully formed "bases", yes ?
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY:
added some more (hey, its what the market tells me to add), added, AEP, ANDW, ARW, BIO/A, CEXP, CGN, DHC, FCN, GDC, GSR, HRBC, IOM, IPIC, MS, MTSI., NRL, OLGC, PLC, RII., SYBS, TCA, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) AAC, ABH, ACX, ADGO, AIMM, ALN,
AOI., APM, ARG, BCP, BEZ, BKI., BLM, BMC, BYX, COMS, CSR, EAR, ECO, ELCO, FAVS, FCH, FHCC, FLH, FTR, GKI., GW, HDG, HL, HLX, HPK, IHS, ISSI., IV, KTEC, LKI., LXR, MIDI., MLP, MLT, MRVC, MSN, NOI., NPSI., NVX, NWK, OEI., ONST, ORI., OXY, PAM, RDRT, RML, RSC, SAA, SAMC, SGE, SHOW, SOC, SSN, SWK, SWW, TMAR, TMD, TMO, TPS, TXM, TWA, UQM, VMRX, WKGP, WLV, WND, WTT, XTR, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....
New, longer-term watching list: BGP, SRV, RYC, SWK, LWN, FLM, IO, SGO, MI., are potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know....
some right here, some Not just yet, as some still need more work, technically ....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....removed most all Utilities....
Remember, this is just a "watching to possibly buy" list !!! They only
become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, when/if they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....note, we re-added some previously given names, above
here....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
Fuller, Potential Puts
list, by Industry groups where practical, near their highs ONLY --- do NOT "chase
down" much:
note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the
ONLY Puttables here, all others have been removed....
note, these lists were growing....do NOT "chase them down" if already down....
biotech, pharm., drug, medical: ADVP, AGPH, PHCC, SEPR,
Internet-oriented: MSPG, ELNK, CMGI., GCTY, AMZN, CNCX, EGRP, INSP, SONE, GNET, YHOO,
All types of Media: RTRSY, TRB, ADLAC, TVGIA,
Telecom, all types of: ANTC, CYCL, CMVT, MCLD, NTLI., NTBK, PWAV, PROX,
Semis: ALTR, AMAT, LLTC, MXIM, PMCS, VTSS,
Retail: AEOS, HDL, COST,
(all other "techs/computer-oriented, etc." are in lists below here, though, "computer enterprise software" stocks seem especially toppy)
**** some new ones (half of these are repeated from last time here, and I have removed those 'already down"): added, ADVP, AEOS, AIG, ALTR, AMAT, AMZN, ASND, CMVT, CNCX, COST, EAGL, EFII., EUSA, GENZ, IBI., INSS, MACR, MEG/A, NEG, NTBK, OXHP, SEBL, SYY, TECH, TEF, TSFW, VISX, VRIO, XLNX, XMCM, to,
("repeats") AAS, ADLAC, AGPH, ALSI., AMO, ASML, BBT, BMY, BUD, CKFR, CM, CMCSK, CMGI., CSN, CTAS, CTL, CTS, DHR, DLJ, DOW, DS, DT, ECL, ETEK, FITB, GCTY, GNET, HDL, HRL, INKT, INSP, INTU, MACR, MANH, MCLD, MCRL, MFNX, MKL, MLNM, MNMD, MRIS, MSPG, MTNT, MXIM, NDN, NSOL, NTLI., NOK/A, NT, ODP, OSI., PERC, PHCC, PMCS, PMI., PROX, PWAV, QRSI., ROST, ROV, RTRSY, SCOR, SDS, SEPR, SFXE, SYKE, TD, TJX, TRB, TVGIA, TWTR, VERT, VOD, VRTS, VTSS....and, RNWK and GNET have "EVT's" (exhaustion V tops), but parabolic, difficult, so probably missed them already ?
Note, added still more ---again, this was what the market was telling me to
show you was happening....obviously, some of these are already down, and may be
too late if not Put already, yes ? Note, we are also revisiting more previously
given stocks....obviously, a large list here, as I told you to expect, recently ....VIEW the charts, before acting....take the time....my goodness, how else are you going to learn the patterns ?
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: Retail, Cap. Goods, Blue Chips, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech,
Consumer, Banks, Insurance, Finance, Computer, Internet, Banks, Computer,
Entertainment, Software, High-PE Techs, and all Tele.-Commun., near their recent
Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are
revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
Given recent action, and many ideas to follow, no new lesson today....
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort,
researching, finding, and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating
each NL itself, I have not had time to give more "Lessons" here lately, nor to
finish 3 more real valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons
you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7)
educational Booklets, I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm",
from 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those
section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....also take this time to VIEW
charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen or
fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it
pulls back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains
a buy (sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future, provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is
also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops, and July '98 tops, and drops, have
proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my
main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match
my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously,
have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things,
properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you
actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE
you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows,
for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming
you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from
the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....