1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) well, I did it again - the first/only to give out Semis near recent lows for ya...."But, Jim, their fundamentals are still looking lower" - gee, please re-read my booklets.... anyway, I now see a growing list of super-depressed Techs, according to S & P, actually estimating PROFITS in 2001 or 2002, and/or already profitable ! think about that....why people are not scooping them up is beyind me (but not really, as we understand the dynamic here, while 'the 95%' do not).... 2) and, noticing what has transpired recently, I was also certainly the first/only to have given out many extended Retail, Medical, Gaming, Textile, Comml. Svcs., Military, Chem., stocks, fell towards their 200 DMA's recently, see ? the pattern rarely changes....
3) Robin Mesch, a supposed Bonds expert gal whose past T.R., we are not told, on CNBC, Mon. 12:25, says 'the consolidation bottom is at 105++ at lowest", and is still pretty bullish on the Bond.... 4) and, as I am again, I gues, the first to suggest S.T. bottoms and bounces in many Aisan stocks - just as 'the 95 %' got super-bearish - as usual....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) ....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) interestingly, as I taught you a while ago, there were tons of Insider Sales among already-super-depressed Techs recently - which proves once again, insiders do NOT know any more than others at turning points.... 2) CNBC's D.Faber, Mon. 12:15, story about how many companies use accounting gimmicks (don't get me started, re-read my Booklwets), to mask/hide/mislead numbers, etc., on takeovers, goodwill, R & D, etc., as if knowing that the last several years migh thave affected anything - the parabolic rise of unprofitable stocks, and/or the decline of profitable, long-existing stocks - dig ? total BS, as you have been taught....
3) CNBC reported Tue. that "univ. of mich. consumer sentiment" reading for this month, came out higher than expected....might this dovetail with Deloss Smith's comments ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) more anti-kudos for yet another round of dumb B-firms who only now downgraded ABI, one they ALL loved at the top a while ago, on Friday.... 2) even as he kinda agrees with me, Dick Arms, like EVRYONE else out there, said we cannot have a sustained rally until more hopeful people get whacked even more, which is, as you know, ridiculous.... 3) Salomon's John Jason, one guy who kinda did foretell the Techs decline, last year, said, Mon., they had NOT bottomed yet, 'a watched pot never boils' - but, as I taught you, often, the few analysts who foretell a trend early, almost always fail to reverse well afand stay too long, yes ? So, we'll fade him, yes ?
4) similarly, amazingly, I just received a 'copy mailing' late, from the Bob Prechter EWT people, titled, "an urgent report - famous market manias and their aftermaths", showing those previous historical parabolas, and big drops thereafter....problem is, THEY are NOW super-bearish - yet they comveniently left OUT, recent drops in Techs/NASDAQ, and probablye at least S.T. bottoms here, dig ? Last, realize, for the umpteenth time, EWT was WRONG predicting huge drops from the early 1980's, then again, AFTER the 1987 crash, yes ? so, thanks again for nothing fellas, but scaring people to try to get subscriptions, AFTER the fact when they were wrong in the first place....I still respect their concept somewhat, but, geez....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) gee, it only took the useless idiot politicians in Calif. several months to agree to stick it to consumers to alleviate part of the Elec. problem by raising our rates ridiculously....hmmmm....who was the first to predict that herein ? ....2) Deloss Smith, on CNBC Tue. 7 am, pointed out, that, so far, even with the 200,000 layoffs in Techs here-around, "they are being abosrbed by other companies/areas of our economy, and unemployment is NOT rising much considering, which is actually a good sign"....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
cleaning up still 11 more Puts Gains: bal. puts AZA (44 to 28+) for 133% G....bal. puts BK (57 to 43-) for Q 100% G....bal. puts AGC (40 to 35) for Q 50% G....bal. puts AHP (62 to 54) for VQ 75% G....bal. puts BBT (37 to 31++) for 60% G....bal. puts MEL (44 to 36) for 75% G....bal. puts BCE (28+ to 22+) for VQ 88% G....bal. puts CMCSK (46 to 39+) for VQ 75% G...1/2 pos. puts EXC (67- to 60) for VQ 44% G....1/2 pos. puts PPL (46+ to 42-) for VQ 35% G....1/2 pos. puts JNY (40 to 35-) for VVVQ 50% G....and, 1/2 pos. calls KNT (14 to 18) for VQ 125% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. PRSF (6 to 8+) for VVQ 66% G....
and/but, longs, FBR ?, CSCO, and, puts, ADVP, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
ACTM @ 11+, 1/2 pos. AWE @ 17+, BEAS @ 30++, 1/2 pos. CDT @ 13++, 1/2 pos. DCLK @ 10, 1/2 pos. DD @ 40, 1/2 pos. INFA @ 15+, 1/3 pos. IOM @ 3 1/2-, 1/2 pos. JDSU @ 22-, 1/3 pos. MGM @ 15+, 1/2 pos. NTRO @ 5+, 1/2 pos. SONE @ 6+, 1/2 pos. STXN @ 8 1/8,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): ANDW @ 14+, BGO @ 0.405, BSRTS @ 5 1/2, CAS @ 8.8, CBJ @ 1/4, CTHR @ 0.85, FON @ 20+, GAB @ 10, HNV @ 1/4, IN @ 5-, IOM @ 3+, KEYN @ 12+, KRY @ 3/4, NOVL @ 5-, PMCS @ 30+, ROS @ 5- ?, SFE @ 4.81, SPCT @ 12, TERN @ 3 3/4, VRTA @ 10, ZMBA @ 1.6...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, GLGC, PHI, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.".... we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. ATVI @ 24+, 1/2 pos. RCII. @ 46,
"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') BRO @ 39+, CNT @ 47+, EIX @ 15, GCO @ 26++, HSIC @ 34-, KPP @ 34-, NOI. @ 39+, PCG @ 14++, SKX @ 27++, TDW @ 50+,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", ADBE, PRGN, ITCD, ACTM, PGO, GX, ATMI, FLO, THDO, HWP, ZIXI, LU, NXCD, KLIC, RTEK, IBIS, AMKR, ASYT, PYX, VSH, TER, GTW, TSM, SNE, TMCS, PRGN, PRIA, PWER, CPST, NEWP, ASIA, HELX, ITXC, HOMS, LTXX, LSCC, BD, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, none, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern, more:
still more nice Gains for you, all through recent travails, ay ? :
ACTM 13.81 up 2.81, INFA 18.6 up 3.6, SONE 7 5/8 up 2 1/4, ANDW 16.25 up 2.07, DITC 10.93 up 2.18, AWE 20.21 up 3, NOVL 5.56 up 0.56, DCLK 12 1/8 up 2 3/8, VRTA 13 1/2 up 1 1/4, STXN 9.66 up 1.66, CDT 15.47 up 1.87, NTRO 6.18 up 0.75, HPOW 7 3/8 up 5/8, JNIC 13 up 1, GSPN 28 1/4 up 2 1/4, PRSF 8.43 up 1.06, JDSU 23 1/2 up 1 5/8, RNWK 7.34 up 0.50, BEAS 30.8, 33.5, MGM 16.15, DD 42.4 up 2.4, MERX 14 5/8, TSTN 7.81 up 0.50, KEYN 12.93, TERN 4.18, SAWS 20.75, KNT 18.92, ASML 24 5/8 up 1, higher since last NL here....while, MU, NMS, approached their 200 DMA ....and, WIN 27+, even higher still....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
SPCT 12.12, 13.81, SNBC, CTHR, KRY, RCG, CAS, IOM 3.40, 3.69, KEYN 13 3/8, 12 3/8, LSI. 17 3/4, 19.15, HPOW 6 3/4, HA, PMCS 33 1/8, 34 1/8, 30 1/2, 32 5/8, 30.5, 34.3, SVRN, CWCO, HNV, GAB 10 3/4 up 3/4, SPCT 12 3/4, 13.68, JNIC 11 5/8, GSPN 24+, VRA, VIGN 6.81, 6.31, STTX, NT 17 3/4, MERX 13, 13 7/8, RHAT 6 3/8, TERN 3 3/4, TG 15 3/8, 16 1/2....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) LNUX, CCRT, PAP, SNBC, ANAD, CTHR, INSP, ROS 4 3/4, SFE 4.78, 5.89, 5.12, KANA, STG, USI. 7.55, 6 3/8....and, were, SNE, CS, MLT, MBK, ZRAN, GLGC, CCBL, 'fobd's' ?
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
JNY -4 (S), RCII. -2 1/2, SKX -2 3/4, BRO, RL, lower since last NL here....and, AFL 24, AIG 74, FRX 48-, ENE 52, CBE 34, AZA 26, EMR 58, TMO 20-, BBT 31, BK 41, BCE 22, MEL 35, NEU 55, PG 60, FITB 46, ANEN 12, CERN 31, SSSS 26 to 19....all given you herein from tops, easily exploitable, Gains should have been totally taken by now....and, OK, CHTR, approached their 200 DMA....even lower still, neat....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (BSRTS, FRT, HCN, TCC, ARJ, TCO, JPR, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (CAS (also nice pot. div.), CBJ, KRY, STTX, KGC, etc.)
depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, and most Chem., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Papers, Apparel, Regional Banks/Finls.
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, emi., comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not broken down, nor
popped up too much recently, already, before you buy, as I removed a bunch
already-up's, and broken-down's from last NL list here)
added, CC, AXP, T, AWE, DD, GTW, FBF, KEI, BEAS, NT, MGM, CDT, ABSC, ACTL ?, JDSU, GLW, ASYS, CRDS, ZIXI, HELX, GOTO, IBIS, INKT, IDCC, NITE, MTSC, REMC, MTWV, OTEX, OPTV ?, PVTL, PLUG, SLNK, TMCS, WFII. ?, PKI, ANTC, LU, to, UAL, X, CDO, NCX, PHI, SGI, ACTM, CTC, EMT, BRIO, QTRN, HLTH, SNWL, PRGN, ITCD ?, DCLK, NOPT, SPCT, VIGN, VRTA, XRX, IOM, ROS, CALD, GX, ASYT, RNWK, TERN, NOVL, STXN, NEON, SFE, PRSF, HPOW, IN, SONE, DITC, CTHR, FCTR, CBR, ZRAN, SVRN, FNV, CAS, KGC, RCG, NTRO, NXCD, MWBX, TRAC, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, (note list shrinking again a bit, mostly due to Gainers gave you): ATVI, SOTR, RCII, BMET, HSIC, EQT, HF, SKX, KPP, ASBC, GCO, NOI, JNY, SNV, SSP, SKE, to, JCI, RL, PBG, IVGN, ADM, CV, EXC, TDW, WAG, ALSI, EXPD, PPDI, DUK, MET, PX, OK, PNC, BRO, CYTC, CNT, INSUA, CMH, MNI., DHI, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Utilities,
Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services (but some are already down, yes ?),
Commercial Services, Tobacco, Trans., Enterprise/software,
Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Fuel Cell, Homes-related/bldg.,
Computer/Internet/Software/Services, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs
ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside
follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES