1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
Told you, told you, told you....our 'split' market continues to move along pretty-much as I was the first/only to have expected/predicted: more tops and corrections among extended NASDAQ stocks, and more bounces-off-depressed-lows, in longsiders....It will be interesting to hear and read what all the Media and Finl. Ind. people come up with as excuses for missing these moves, over time....so the NASDAQ index was forming a top around that 5000+ area....round numbers, with an 'overshoot', as usual, you know....

And, whaddaya know ? Wed., saw, again, one of the biggest one-day-point drops in NASDAQ stocks....told you so....Got puts ? do again I have to chastised those of you consciously choosing to "NEVER doing puts ever" ? hope not....Remember, my 'year 2000 scenario' (gosh, I hate that word), was for 'the last to be first, and the recently string, to correct', yes ? I was first to predict this....then, I surmised that the corrections in extended stocks would begin to hurt some 'lucky yuppies' who failed to hedge/protect/sell/lighten up, right ? plus, this was becoming a less-than-good-seasonal-period, as well, for parabolic stocks....then, perhaps, affecting 'the economy', R.E. values, etc., at some point....Well, regardless, this should not affect our 'split' market....

Since I called the 'shift', the Dow was up + 14 %, while the NASDAQ was down - 10 % as of this morning's low....nice divergence, huh, which we were, of course, the first to predict....recall that NASDAQ index '4400' initial potential downside target still out there, I gave you earlier herein....Thu. low was 4494, as of 9:30 am, pst....just FYI, the total stock market value of the top 9,200 stocks in the U.S. (the "Barra all-U.S. index'), is now around $ 18. trillion....

Given that I have a lot of sharp, 'Silicon Valley' subscribers, I hope you told all your compatriots to at least protect their extended "Tech/Semi." stock positions, using my "PSYCLE sm"....if you know any co-workers whom you think highly enough of, to suggest they benefit from my outputs, please let them, and me, know....You'll be helping others, which is the whole point, yes ? If my "PSYCLE sm" is going to fulfill, there will still be another staged drop among extended stocks, after rallies off this weeks (or early next week's) intraday lows....re-read my "Mastering Psychology" booklet, which explains why so few people protect anything ever, nor lighten up properly, or invest in a state of 'denial' at such levels....

This said, buy depresseds near lows, or on pullbacks, and watch for more bounces to buy puttables into near highs, when-and-if....gosh, I hope you have VIEWED bunches of longs and puttable stocks from my NL, these last several months, to see'learn the EVT/EVB patterns....

Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more, as befits market conditions....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And, the "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2). Longer lists, and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7).... and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). Of course, if you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you may choose to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage, over time.

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:1) are we, again, the first/only to have added depressed Aero./Def. stocks at recent lows ? been pretty good (with one Q, S, L, along the way) with this I.G., check their rolling tops-and-drops we were the first/only to give out as Puts near their last years' highs herein for you....see the patterns ? ....2) hey, did we finally have a decent S.T. top in Semi. stocks ? and many Techs ? Sure, we had two Q,S, losses, in between many other nice Put gains, in the last year, herein, for you, in them, but this may have been it on the upside for them, for a while....you had plenty of opportunity to have caught their Puts herein....might the Semis, a month or two from now, look like the Biotechs did, last week ? don't care, we have no "scenarios".... 3) viewing pops among Airlines, another "Trans." I.G. area which I also was first/only to suggest near recemt lows for you herein....if you like 'links' (re-read my "Scenarios/Links" booklet), try this: 'if' the Trans. issues fell, as Crude prices rose, with Crude possibly topping and correcting, shouldn't the Trans. stocks pop up a bit ? how easy is that....of course, as usual , should they end up haveing big rises, the 'experts/analysts/Media' will only report that 'new trend', only AFTER wards, right ? too late for people to buy low....the pattern rarely changes.... 4) Wed., 8:30 am, CNBC's Pisani specifically pointed out 'new strength in Retail, Food, Consumer stocks"....hmmmm ....who was the first to give them out as buys near lows ? Yup, us....but God forbid they would let me help millions of people, or even give me the time of day.... 5) neat, I was the first/only to have given out the Tobacco stocks herein, right at their lows for you, then, Wed. nite, Larry King had whole hour with intelligent Health people, most all of whom said Tobacco was/is "the most dangerous drug on the planet" --- the day before their stocks pop nicely, dig ? sentiment-timing-wise, are we seeing another in a long line of "PSYCLE sm" EVB/stage 7 examples unfold right before our eyes ? remember, I have never smoked, and generally detest that pratice, but that will not keep me from ACTING wihthout emoptional attachement, in their stocks....a key to our trading/investing success, yes ? just because we do not believe/approve' of something, does NOT [preclude our taking advantage of a "PSYCLE sm" pattern involving it, period....another valuable lesson learned, and hopefully profiting by....re-read my "Psychology" and "Scenarios" booklets.... 'nuff said.

5) recent L.A. Times article, 3/28, points out there is still not yet any 'glut/oversupply' in the 'office space market' out here....you know how we detest most 'fundamentals', this might tie in with how I like many depressed REIT stocks, etc., some of those I have been giving you in section (6) below, are 'commercial/office' REIT's....do your homework....that's where a good full-service broker helps.... 6) while I have given you some Asian stocks near highs as potential Puttables herein, and I was certainly the first/only to have given them as buys right from their lows, on T.V., in summer-1998, with the Nikkei. and Hong Kong indexes hitting minor new highs recently, I was wrong in calling thier S.T. tops recently herein....just Q, S, losses, no damage, as usual....That said, I still see tops forming in SNE, MC, and, gave you TSM, etc., near highs (already down, notice), proving once again, that concentrating on 'individual stocks' and I.G.'s, beats 'index trading/predicting', very often.... 7) cash Crude Oil has some support around $ 25, if and when, just FYI....that's where I incorrectly called an expected top, after having been the first to call their lows, late '98/early '99....two huge gains, one very small puts loss.... 8) note Q, S, losses in a couple of Golds, no damage, especially with gains in others....for the umpoteenth time: 'gold' means NOTHING special, in any way, shape, or form....it is just another I.G., period....NO emotional attachments to any investments !

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) a VG article in Barrons, 3/13, pointed out (but only after the fact, and price drops, of course) that, with price drops in PG, G, MRK, etc., stocks, 'closet indexing' by big institutions, trying to mimic the S & P, may have crested as a concept....I mean, an index of all stocks NOT in the S & P was up + 63 % from Feb. '99 through Feb. '00....but that is still not news, of course.... what IS interesting, is that replacing those kinds of stocks, with the biggest ones on the NASDAQ, like, AOL, MSFT, WCOM, AMGN, etc., would NOT have made much difference in performance, either ! surprise....even stocks like, NOK, SUNW, CSCO, lagged the NASDAQ itself....meaning, that 'indexing' itself, as a concept, may have topped, as I was first to predict two years ago would occur (a little early, as usual)....Remember, they all said the S & P was 'bullet-proof', that all one had to do was buy and hold the S & P forever and outperform, right ? But, even that was wrong, since the Techs vastly outperformed the S & P, right ? when picking individual stocks which went parablic was the better thing to have done, for 2-3- years recently, they all missed (and, while I gave you tons that worked better/real well, herein, longside, we missed many of those as well)....Last, and importantly, as I have taught for years, they correctly point out, that, 'size/liquidity' in and of themselves, does NOT necessarily imply 'safety', dig ? NO "links", NO "labels"....and, of course, proving, oce again, that NO 'one type of stock specific' concept works well forever....but you alreay knew that, right ?

2) a CNBC, Tue., report, suggests that maybe 'individuals' as affectors of markets, may be replacing 'institutions'....I dunno....certainly in 'numbers', and for some less liquid stocks on NASDAQ, but, $ 6 to 8 trillion in equity M. Funds still....recent Stanford Bernstein study found individuals have accounted for about 60 % of all trades on NASDAQ, up from 30 % a decade ago (but, not, I would add, in number of SHARES traded), and with IPO craze (which I say, is probably now ending for a while), and daytrading stuff, they ponder the effect when they slow down.... 3) as usual, L.A. Times, highlighting past-stodgy "TRW" as a potential "new economy" stock, only did so AFTER its big recent price rise, too late....dig ? and, of course, on Tues., it corrected immediately....the pattern rarely changes....where were they near it's lows ? ....4) Tue., 11:25, CNBC, PIsani menitoned "RHAT" as having its IPO 'lock-up period' ending soon, and, therefore is now negative on its stock's prospects....get it ? RHAT stocks is already down from 150 to 50, and NOW he reports a 'negative' thing....too late, dig ? the pattern rarely changes....

5) CNBC's Maria Cabrera, Tue., 11:15 am, showed chart of "HDC", saying, "everybody and their motnher is talking about this stock today"...get it ? 'HDC' is already way up from 36 to 65, and only NOW she reports bullishly....of course, you know what THAT means, ahead, yes ? ....6) Tue. 10:50 am, CNBC's PIsani, showed chart of "BBY", CNBC having had its pres. on recently, as super-bullish....but price chart shows potential double-top, see it ? we shall see....then, he compunded his, well, you know, by misleadingly reporting on "OAT" stock, saying, "Q. Oats is having a terrific day, up 2, to $ 54." Since when is under 4 % move, 'terrific' ? it was $ 58. also several days ago ....7) Wed., 12:35 pm, CNBC's Ron Insana, asked Mark Mobius, of "the implications of a further crash in Internet stocks"....gee, what 'further' crash ? they have not even had their FIRST "Crash', yet, ay ? "crash" to me, is down 50-80 %, only, yes ?

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:1) recall, I was the first/only, last year, to predcit more mergers/takovers occuring at well BELOW all-time highs on stocks, especially in the Energy and Financial I.G.'s ? well, we just had another, as "VRC" actually agreed to a merger, BELOW the last close price.... 2) as usual, CNBC, Tue., 11 am, showed "GAP" as reporting much higher-than-expected earnings, then showed an EVB chart, negatively....check it out, so I add it below....in a good I.G., right ? ....3) I love it....all the analysts just LOVED "FNV" at its highs, EVRYONE, saying, "this co. has no risk, because the credit/loan business has no risk, guaranteed growth, etc.", remember ? Hmmmm, so, with its' recent EVB drop, let's see how it forms stage 7, bases, and rises, down the road....re-read my EVB/BDG booklet....it will take some time, of course....be patient....this could be yet another example of my "PSYCLE sm" in action, long-term.... 4) I love this one: Wed., Bill Griffeth, CNBC, interviewed a guy, 10:15 am, who pointed out, how, tons of "new econ." companies are needing/trying to hire many execs from "old econ." companies ! hah....so much for the 'new paradigm eliminating the old one', ay ? Told you so....those new guys are begging the 'old guys' for help....sure, this is understandible, as the the 'new' companies foresee/fear saturation (but are in denial, PSY-chologically), as I was first to predict a while ago would transpire, as the "PSYCLE sm" repeats yet again, over time, the next few years, with those parabolic stocks, as usual.... 5) the L.A. Times did it again: 3/28, only AFTER big rises which they did not predict, they show chart of "Brokerage stocks", up +100 % since last Fall....a decent S.T. top sign, yes ? re-read my "Media" booklet....recall, I gave you the Online Brokers long herein, right from their bases/lows, back then....I told Mr. Petruno, at the Times, as you know, but, as usual, he treated me terribly....so what else is new....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:1) Kudos to Paine Webber, full-page ad, L.A. TImes, 3/24, "LBO Mania", reminding people about how, in late 1980's, valuations were also taken to extremes, and 'the experts' predicted a 'new paradigm', and that 'old valuation measures don't matter any more', etc., remember ? Well, Fall 1987 (pun intended) took care of most of that, ay ? caveat emptor....once again, into the breach, we go.... 2) Tue., 10 am, CNBC had analyst expert in "Convertible Bonds" on...while he raved about their supposed-triple-benefits (higher income, plus pot. price rise when/if underlying stock rises, with lower risk), as one of the first pros on the west coast to have publicized CVT. securities, on T.V., in 1983-1984, when many CVTS. were yielding 10-15 % AND their underlying stocks were near their lows (unlike now), now, all the stocks he liked are already way up, and their yields are MUCH lower, like, 3-4-5-6 %, dig ? Once again, CNBC only gives out info. on something, AFTER it should have been recommended/publicized, at much lower prices, a while ago, right ? the pattern rarely changes....Plus, the fact that some Funds and mgrs. are looking at CVTS. on NASDAQ parabolic stocks, should tell you they are worried, dig ? but, individuals are not...what does THAT say to you, "PSYCLE-sentiment" wise ? ....3) Deutsch Bank buys 15 % of "NDB" up here, around $ 60....gee, where were they when I was first/only to give out 'online brokers' near their lows, not too long ago ? NDB stock is almost up triple already....they could have bought in its base around $ 20+, for months....spending just $ 300. for all my materials, they would have saved $ Billions, yes ?

4) the too-famous Abbey Cohen, was on CNBC, Tue., 11:15 am, saying, she is now taking some 'money off the table'....but is that out of the more-depressed 'old econ.' stocks ? (I think, yes, and, if so, she is quite late doing so, don't get me started), or, has she had money in the 'paraolbics' ? I dont think so, as she admitted to also missing recent run-ups in Techs and Semis....but, notably, was/is NOT bearish on them, yet (but I am/have been bearish, on many)....also, she loves Energy Service stocks up here (don't get me started), and dislikes "Consumer Staples, Food, Clothing, Grocery, Soap", stocks (which I liked at recent lows, as you know)....her S & P forward targets are not much higher than recent price levels....oh, and she still loves Financial stocks (but, as I previously reported herein, she had liked them all the way down from their highs, wherefrom I was first/only to have given as Puts)....she also loves Munis here, but, like T-bonds, they are already up, yes ? we shall see....Yet, she gets ubiquitous undeserved exposure on CNBC, and I, well, you know the rest....

5) I gotta give (only) partial kudos to Merrill Lynch, which closed two new Internet-type M. Funds to new money, Monday 27th, turning away additional billions from investors....they specifically mentioned having experienced the largest OUT-flow of money from Their 'value' M. Funds in Jan. 2000, EVER....meaning, 'the 95 %' likely sold many 'old economy stocks' RIGHT NEAR THEIR LOWS (probably, many with/at losses, dig ?)....think about that....the pattern rarely changes....they foresee less liquidity forward, in Internet stocks (correct), but also are remaining in the extended Internet stocks in their M. Funds (incorrect), and, of course, they failed to protect/lighten up/sell most 'old economy value stocks' all the way down anyway (incorrect), and, I say, they should have launched an "old economy M. Fund" recently, near their lows, but did not, ay ? (incorrect)....last, since they had huige withdrawals from their 'value' funds, and they just raised an equal amount of money into their new Internet funds, one could surmise, that their 'salesmen' got peoiple out of the former near the lows, and into the latter near their highs, to generate big commisssions to the salesmen, yes ? just a thought ....but, we all know, my idea here has gotta be at least partially correct.... 6) Merrill's crack Internet analyst was on CNBC, Wed., 12:35 pm, young Henry Blodget, 'we will have a pretty-brutal blow-out'....gee, where was HIS "top call' in these ? this guy WAS correct for a while in these, to be sure, but said NOTHING about an 'impending top' in these stocks....shame on him, and CNBC....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) recent CPI figures % rise was highest for many areas since Jan. 1992....not just Energy prices, ay ? ....2) I read recently where Cisco's market share in the 'router' business is 80-90 %, certainly also 'anti-trustable', IF one believes MSFT should be somehow punished, yes ? just something to consider, since our wonderful Govt. does not seem even remotely interested in going after CSCO, right ? hmmmm.....no agenda at work here, huh....next.... 3) L.A. Times, 3/26, Liz Pulliam article, "Annuity Pitches Can Mislead Older Investors", correctly cautions some retirees, etc., against blindly buying annuitites, whose growth has been amazing the last decade....Remember, as I.R.'s fell, all the 'experts' incorrectly said, that 'annuity sales would decline forever', right ? As usual, they wwre wrong, along with MONEY mag., the Media, and the Finl. Svcs. ind. itself, but I digress....As the vast majority of Insurance 'salespeople' pushing these for commissions primarily (don't get me started) to senior citizens, have been misleading them with supposed benefits, without telling them of potential negative L.T. estate and tax consequences (so what else is new)....Sure, sometimes these productyys have been great for people, but, many more have been misled, and/or may be hurt down the road, she writes....due to Medicare laws, etc., seniors are not always made aware of, which I need not regale here....anyway, caveat emnptor, especially since, again, most sellers of these products are NOT good financial people, nor putting clients welfare first....She, and their industry are questioning the 'ethics' of many Annuity sales pitches....BTW, at E.F. Hutton, I was among the first 'anti-insur. ind.' broker-helpers in the U.S., from the late 1970's, and, always got heat from insurance ind. salesmen, over the years, when I pointed out things that Ms. Pulliam wrote in this article....the pattern rarely changes....so, be careful with all annuities, and get ALL the facts before buying....

As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically 'closed-out' trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and when you see "bal." here in section (3), that means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....