Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, ended formally, back in early April 2000, with issue # 207+, a while ago....(so/but this NL is Not really being actually published formally, publically, any more, and has not been, for quite a while now ....I just wanted a place to keep track of what I would have said and done and felt, since I was forced undeservedly to stop my NL, months ago....this is ONLY for my own edification and proof of the value of my output and concepts to others), and anyone reading this has NOT gotten it from me....
dated: 9:30 am, PST, Friday, March 30, 2001


"2001: a Trading Odessey"

or, "The Patterns Rarely Change"

Important Note: this serious, very valuable "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, due to the too-often at least semi-gestapo, uncaring, ridiculous, illogical, NASD/SEC rules, and the uncaring, inconsiderate, and thoughtless nature of most all brokerage firms....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, here, twice each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance, very-long-term track record, and to offer further significant, in-advance, in-writing, 'proof' of the value and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

Lots of fits and starts, as expected, sill buying dips, with stops, and getting plenty of pops already....once again, the lesson, is to buy more, after a rough period, when one seems close to capitulating and emoting....I have seen this so many times over my 25+ years, even though even I was even affected a little at one point, at least I knew it was bottoming as I expected, at least S.T., partly because of that sentiment, dig ?

it is ridiculous listening to those who got all bearish even on the DJIA at 9100 because of the -1600 drop, and +800 rise, just as quickly....and, hearing all the "we have already made a 50 % retracement of the recent DJIA decline" musings by the have-never-predicted-anything-correctly-in-their-lives CNBC crew, Tue. and Wed., note even at that, NO one on CNBC mentioned the word Fibonacci....

Important ?: Investors Intelligence new bullish/bearish % figures have been rising a lot lately, as more incorrect-before NL writers shift to bearish, which is, of course, good for us, here, and forward, probably, yes ? we now have highest bears % since 11/99 - after those same people missed the beginning of a BIG rise in the NASDAQ, back then, dig ? as you know, I expect many people to miss thie coming one(s) similarly, as per "PSYCLE sm" dictates....Remember, many depressed stocks will rise, well BEFORE any 'fundamental, generally-disseminated news items' improve, via the press, yes ? and, interestingly, the "% of stocks above their 10- and 30-wk. MA" remains another potential bullish item near its lows, as oversold as they ever get, historically....

now, with seemingly everyone over-focused on NT, CSCO ("M.C. Cabrera: they could get a lot worse", yeah, right, like she is any good at timing), might not they become 'hooks' themselves, for more bottoms in late stage 7/early stage 1 stocks soon ? obviously, we are all thrashed a bit at all this, but to step back and get valuable perspective, one sees the semi-obvious impending lows, and hopefully, the next time ANY industry group forms a stage 4 parabola, and/or falles to stage 7, one will trade in anticipation, even better....

WE now have had THE worst NASDAQ quarteer ever, down about -30 %....in one Q....and, pretty small QSL's for us, still, even as some breakdown a bit more.... proud of that....and having given a plethora of QLG's in Puts recently again for you....so, gotta be buying some depresseds with stops...no other logi=cal course of action here....gotta rise above 'the 95%', and deploy more of one's sideline cash, yes ? just as one had some Puts all along the decline....and, just as you learned to BUY 'last years worst funds', and vice-versa, one MUST buy things down here that fit my "PSYCLE" stage 7, stage 1, EVB's, etc., especially those that have still not made new lows after EVB's, yes ? the same comments apply as last time here....

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) interesting, as I am, and have been, pretty-much the only guy to have caught, both, the L.T. lows, and successfully Put them a few times since, with a very high percentage of winners, Thu. 9 am, CNBC mentioned how, with Oil Svc. stocks only I gave out herein from recent highs as Puts, "oil inventories have been rising significantly in the USA lately" - to which I say, welcom to my "PSYCLE sm" yet again - you're welcome.... 2) IMPORTANT (see above): Fri., PIsani, 7:34, specifically pointed out, that the worst 5 stocks of last Dec. 2000, were, shockingly to him (but not to PSYCLE followers), the BEST performers for the 1st Q of 2001....more proof of the validity of my concepts, yes ? Those who fail to learn from past repeating patterns, are often fated to fall prey to them the next times....the best ones, were, AAPL, CPWR, KM, AMD, DDS....even though I have been less than great lately, in some areas, every one of them were here in this NL for you near their previous lows !

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) Ted David CNBC, Tue. 12:34, unfortunately said, "the market is in a certifiable rally", so expect some pb's before higher....then a floor guy said, "we keep moving higher and higher....", to which I would ask, exactly what 'market' are they looking at ? certainly not what I see.... 2) then, Wed., a new ignorant CNBC reporter-gal (so often a woman, why ?), 11 am, Incorrectly bashed Telecom Techs further, saying, "NT's news today sparked a huge sell-off in related stocks" _ when, in fact, wasn't the 'huge sell-off' from $ 200. to $ 15. already occured ? next....the Media so often does such a disservice to millions of people...especially at extremes....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) ....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) John Bollinger showed weekly A/D lines for 60-yrs. back, showing non-tech. issues continuing to rise all along fairly decently (but don't get me started, since many I.G.'s non-tech. HAVE had big drops, dig ? which, of course, he never showed).... 2) and I, again, accnot help but relate why almost no other analysts but me and my kind, suggested a full retracement down near last years' highs in parabolic techs, as my "PSYCLE sm" teaches....what a shame, I couldn't get a single client to try to explpoit probable downsides in tons of Techs the last 2 years....we all lose, as a result, needlessly....

3) more bullish stuff: MSDW's Phil Roth just stopped bearishness, says near bottoms, and, Joe Dinapoli, joined me recently, as being among the first to go S.T. bullish (me on the NASDAQ, him with DJIA around 9100), confluence level.... 4) and, Fri. 7 am, yet another in a long line of incorrect analysts who loved Techs from tops, hating them now, "I think the worst is over for the DOW< but the NASDAQ can go down forvever....I will wait till it is obvious the NASDAQ has bottomed and risen a lot, before buying Techs again...." - amazing, huh....and he gets paid for that thinking ? more proof of "PSYCLE" sentiment pattern rarely changing....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) you want one decent 'fundemantal' economically ? think about all the tons of 'refinancing' done recently in the Housing-payment, money-raising area.... 2) add "water concerns" L.T., because of low rainfall/snowfall in the Pacific NW, and the Media will beat that to death in the months ahead....blame some of THAT also on the vastly-hypocritical and incorrect, self-proclaimed-but-not-helping-in-fact environmentalists....and, no water, no hydro-electroicity (which Ore., Wash., Idaho uses for 80 % of their power) ? so, stocks market down forever, no electricity ever, no water forever, much higher rates, guess we should just hang it up and kill ourselves, I mean, why go on living, ay ? oy....Let's hurt consumers, but protect unimportant animals and bugs, right ? should be interesting nevertheless....of course, CNBC's terror-monger-guy, Wed. 8:40, only now loves "liquified natural gas' stocks, like, EPG, ENE, SRE, P,

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....

"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:

all puts BRO (40- to 29+) for VVQ 90% G....all puts SKX (29+ to 21+) for VVQ 90% G....

and/but, longs, JDSU (20+ to 23 to 20-), INFA (15 to 19 to 15-), USI. (7 to 9 to 7-), KEYN, BEAS, JNIC, STXN, ANDW, ROS, FBR ?, and, puts, , for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:

(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs): **** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:

1/2 pos. ATTC @ 28+, 1/2 pos. CC @ 10, 1/2 pos. INKT @ 6, 1/3 pos. KEI. @ 14+, 1/3 pos. QQQ @ 39+, SNDK @ 20+, 1/3 pos. X @ 14+,

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AMZN @ 10-, BGO @ 0.405, BSRTS @ 5 1/2, CAS @ 8.8, CBJ @ 1/4, CTHR @ 0.85, DD @ 40, FON @ 20+, GAB @ 10, GSPN @ 19-, HNV @ 1/4, IN @ 5-, IOM @ 3+, KRY @ 3/4, NOVL @ 5-, ROS @ 5-, SFE @ 4++, SONE @ 6+, SPCT @ 12, TERN @ 3 3/4 eh, ZMBA @ 1.6...."buy (only) low", right ?

** Important: took, NT, LU, ACTM, HLTH, WFII, ATML, PWER, ZIXI, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.".... we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops:
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. SOTR @ 45+,

"Repeats": ATVI. @ 25-, CNT @ 47+, EIX @ 15, GCO @ 26++, HSIC @ 34+, JNY @ 39, KPP @ 34-,

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, EQT, HF, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", , as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, none, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):

**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).



acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn the pattern, more:
still more nice Gains for you, all through recent travails, ay ? :
FON 23.1, ASML 24 7/8, MGM 17.70 up 1.55, ATTC 29.75 up 2, ATML 10 5/8 up 7/8, AWE 20.73, MERX 14.6, higher since last NL here....while, MU, NMS, approached their 200 DMA....and, WIN 27+, even higher still....and note, as expected, STHLY 10.81, up after breakdown, to sell into....

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and more bounces after pullbacks:
RNWK 7.31 up 1, SPCT 12.12, 13.81, 12.12, SNBC, CTHR, JDSU, KRY, RCG, CAS, IOM 3.40, 3.69, LSI. 17 3/4, 19.15, 16.40, HPOW 6 3/4, HA, DD 41.4, SVRN, CWCO, HNV, GAB 10 3/4 up 3/4, GSPN 22, VRA, VIGN 6.81, 6.31, ASML 21.43, STTX, RHAT 6 3/8, TERN 3 3/4, INFA 15 7/8, FON 22, SAWS 16+, AWE 19.35, TG 15 3/8, 16 1/2, SFE 4.66, DD 40 (B), MGM 17.1....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....


and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:

(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) LNUX, CCRT, PAP, SNBC, CTHR, INSP, SFE 4.78, 5.89, 4.66, KANA, STG....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, stick around:

Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out to learn:
BRO -4 (S), JNY -4 (S), SKX -2 (sow), NOI. -2, RCII. -4, SKX -2 3/4 (S), SOTR -1 3/8, ATVI. -1 1/4, RL, lower since last NL here....

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
: LNCR, MNI, CMH, NOI. -1 1/2, CNT, BDK, EXC, TDW -2, PPL, ATVI. +1, HSIC, RL +1 1/2, -1, BMET, JNY +2, -1, PBG, AEP, EIX, PCG, SOTR....this ends our 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):


these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (BSRTS, FRT, HCN, TCC, ARJ, TCO, JPR, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (CAS (also nice pot. div.), CBJ, KRY, STTX, KGC, etc.)
depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, and most Chem., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Papers, Apparel, Regional Banks/Finls.

*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, emi., comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not broken down, nor popped up too much recently, already, before you buy, as I removed a bunch already-up's, and broken-down's from last NL list here) added, QQQ, PWER, ATTC, CC, AXP, T, AWE, DD, GTW, FBF, KEI, MGM, CDT ?, ABSC, ACTL ?, GLW ?, ASYS, CRDS, HELX ?, GOTO, IBIS, INKT, IDCC, NITE, MTSC, REMC, MTWV, SNDK, OTEX, PVTL, PLUG, SLNK, TMCS, PKI, ANTC, to, UAL, X, NCX, PHI, SGI, CTC, EMT, BRIO, QTRN, SNWL, PRGN, ITCD, DCLK, NOPT, SPCT, VIGN, VRTA, XRX, IOM, CALD, GX, ASYT, RNWK, TERN, AMZN, NOVL, NEON, SFE, HPOW, IN, SONE, DITC, CTHR, FCTR, CBR, ZRAN, SVRN, FNV, CAS, KGC, RCG, NXCD, MWBX, TRAC, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, as all others have been Removed:

* add, (note list shrinking again a bit, mostly due to Gainers gave you): APOL, ATVI, SOTR, RCII, BMET, HSIC, KPP, ASBC, GCO, NOI, JNY, SNV, SSP, SKE, to, JCI, PBG, IVGN, ADM, CV, EXC, TDW, WAG, ALSI, EXPD, PPDI, DUK, MET, PX, OK, PNC, BRO, CYTC, CNT, INSUA, CMH, MNI., DHI, from recent past NL's....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services (but some are already down, yes ?), Commercial Services, Tobacco, Trans., Enterprise/software, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Fuel Cell, Homes-related/bldg., Computer/Internet/Software/Services, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES