1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Saw a nice L.T. chart by Frank Barbera, KWHY-tv, Tue. after the close, showing a L.T. oscillator, of DJ Utility Yields, vs. T-Bond yields....While, historically, Utilities have tended to yield 2- 3 % more than Bonds (because they are supposedly not as "safe"), recently, Elec. Utilities' yields have even been at a small discount to T-Bond yields--- get it ? This is normally bearish for them, S.T., relative to Bonds....The last 2 times Utility yields were attractive, vs. Bond yields, were in 1988 and 1993, before nice rises by Utility stocks back then....obviously, recent readings have been NOT as good....In order to become attarctive relative to Bonds again, utils. would have to fall a lot more....NOT a prediction, just an historical comment....Also note how many stocks, in general, were sold/cut/removed from my lists herein....this does not happen in roaring bull markets, dig ? It begins to look more like last Spring, stock-market-wise....
Oh, and, of course, I shouldn't have to remind you, that the whole "Kosovo" thing, means NOTHING, from a "directly-applicable-future-stock-price-predictive" p.o.v. Domestic/foreign political actions do NOT affect stocks, individually or as a group, in any historically consistently predictable manner, period. So, concentrate on the specific stocks, and charts, and sentiment WITHIN the markets, and forget "external" things....Re-read all my booklets....
Also, Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL
applicable, staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable,
"PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever
I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of,
for YOUR educational/trading benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most
Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And note, the
"learning/feeling/sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2) and (8). Longer
lists and I.G.'s, are in section (6) and (7)....and all follow-ups, are in
sections (4) and (5). Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for
not taking advantage. Obviously, if "YOU" choose not to want certain types of stocks/plays, like real cheapies, or Puts, etc., or YOU choose not to learn how to do certain things better, it is your choice to do so, but realize, that other valued subscribers DO want them. You have to weigh, your time, with learning my patterns of lifetime value. There ARE more than a few subscribers who are even successfully trading some of the stocks I 'miss' herein, because THEY are VIEWING the charts....'nuff said.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?): 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) as part of my so far right-on prediction that more "commodities" would form a 24-year low, notice the recent double-bottom and bounce, in cash Wheat futures, from 2.40 to 2.90 so far.... 2) also note, predicted S.T. wall the DJ. Trans. Index ran into, around 3,400....3) another good "PSYCLE sm" signal--- if you get my drift: L.A. Times, 3/29, had a big front-page article, titled, "Health Care (and HMO, Hosp., etc. stocks): an RX for disaster ?" said, "Unhealthy Results.... credit quality collapses....as profit margins collapse....problems are evident.... could spell continued trouble for millions....shakeout...." And, of course, they showed a big chart, of "already-down a bunch" stocks ("and many stocks plunge") ....get it ? Interestingly, they highlighted OXHP as "continuing woes" --- yet, as you know, I was the first/only, to give out OXHP, herein, and even on TV, around $ 6., last year, and it recently hit $ 20....all stocks should have such "woes", yes ? And, while not setting the world on fire, our FHS, COL, HIV, BIO/A, are up recently, and I am watching others in this depressed I.G. This proves yet again, that stage 7/stage 1 stocks may tend to RISE, even as "fundamentals/news" remains/gets bad/worse, once bases form, yes ? I rest my case --- again....4) I also see S.T. bottoms in Sugar and Coffeee futures, as expected....more depressed commodities, dig ?
5) note the predicted decline in DJ. Utilities Avg., already down from 307, S.T. top at 200 DMA, to 292....as with the T-bond (up 1 pt. Tues.), are both headed for potential S.T. double-bottoms ahead ? we shall see .... 6) important note: very few, if any, depressed Gold stocks are buys, as most all have broken patterns, except, maybe, the ones in sec. (3) herein....Obviously, you know/knew the super-cheapies were extremely risky anyway.... 7) I saw a commodities guy on KWHY-tv Tues. 30th, flashing an issue of "Futures" Mag., from mid-Jan. '99, with its front-page saying, "Code Blue in Crude"....I mentioned that in this NL back then, as a great "PSYCLE sm" contrary Buy/Low signal, remember ? Well, the point is, that I gave you that signal a while ago, right near the lows, and this guy is just beginning to point out how "great" (in his opinion) Energy stuff looks from here....see the difference ? We already HAD big Gains, and he's late....see how one often misses the best opportunities, if/when one waits for the "trend", and/or "better fundamentals" ? ....8) note how the CRB Commodity Index itself, just approached its first resistance level, up, as predicted herein, off it's lows, up from 182+ to 193+, so far....now, let it pull back, first, before re-viewing it.... 9) also, added some depressed S. Africa Golds (you heard me), which look better than their American and Canadian counterparts, technically ....Remember, we make NO "judgements" about "countries/politics", ever, with respect to stocks timing and choices....Leave all "allowed, internal, philosophical opinions" out of all trading/investing decisions !
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, improper comments from the Financial
Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) CNBC's Bill Griffith, at the close, Monday 29th, called it a "breathtaking rise" for that day....huh ? ....2) in a rare helpful comment, Joe Kernan, CNBC, after the close Monday, pointed out that only 4 Dow stocks are at new highs, out of 30....so much for bad breadth....you try holding up a structure with only a few issues 3) FYI, the super-fast-talker on CNBC, is Martha McCallum, though Michelle Cabrera also comes close....Martha talks SO fast, one cannot even process what she is saying....of what help is that ? ....4) Tue. 30th, 8am, CNBC reporter: "Utilities picking up steam on the upside ...." huh ? Has he not seen the recent big Decline in Utilities ? ....5) Tue. 30th, 8:30 am, Martha McCallum, CNBC, said, "RAD stock got a little boost, from their warning of a profit shortfall yesterday...." huh ? She then also said "U.S. Air set a 500 million Share stock buyback", when she should have said, 500 million Dollars.... 6) more: CNBC showed a big "NEWS FLASH:" notice on the screen, Tue. 30th, for hours --- followed by "no Fed I.R. change"....thanks for nothing, as usual....they have to dramatize everything to "create a story", don't they....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.:
1) Mon. 29th, Kodak warns of earnings shortfall, yet its stock, which the CNBC
reporter hoped would fall when he reported the "negative story", rises....why ? because it is in a potential base.... 2) speaking of Wheat futures, KWHY-tv, reporter Laura Gregory, Tue. 30th, 8:20 am, reported "the worst news for Wheat in decades....lower exports", then, was puzzled that Wheat was UP on "such supposedly bad fundamentals"....Then she actually asked an analyst, "why wouldn't you expect a commodity to go lower on such negative news ?" A perfect "PSYCLE sm" incorrect behavior/belief from a Media person, yes ? ....3) CNBC's Ron Insana, Tue. 30th, 11 am, said, "Coca-Cola is getting hammered, down 4, to 62...." Since when, is 4, on 62, "getting hammered" ? Jeez....it was 54. last Oct., so it it still higher than that, right ? and has still not broken below 59-60, even as Tuesday's "news" of "worse earnings" came out, yes ? As I told you herein, the Media liked "KO" recently, while I pointed out its resistance at its 200 DMA at $ 70., see it ? more, amazing ignorance by Media people....
d) more, late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1)
from the guys who haven't been right yet, "Investors Alley", Mon. 29th, bearish
from here: "Gold is a relic. Gold is yesterday." He actually said, "no one has
made money on the long side in Gold for 20 years." Gee, we have caught several
nice rises out of depressed bases, during this time, yes ? And others have, as
well....But, obviously, not these guys....When I read someone like this, hits something already in stage 7 or stage 1, it helps the L.T. case, "PSYCLE-wise".... 2) CNBC, Mon. 29th, 1:15 pm, super-perma-bull Peter Canelo of Morgan, Stanley, D.W., said, "it's a new era dawning....a new paradigm....don't worry about the next 15 years" (a quote).... 3) Morgan, Stanley, D,W, just added our BHI. and HAL to its upgraded list....late, as usual, right ? geez, where have they been ? ....4) perma-super-bull Abbey Cohen, said, Tue. 30th, IBM is "undervalued" here at $ 181. Gee, if it's undervalued here, what did she think of it at $ 23 ? anyway, have been debating whether to add IBM as puttable, 181., with close stop.... 5) also InvestorsAlley, Mon. 29th, gives another potentially good contrary indicator, "now launches a NL dedicated to the Oil Service stocks"....a little late, ay ? This, from the guys who haven't been right yet, most recently inviting ME to contribute to their website, then treating me like crap....Hey, at least we can "fade" them, and do well most of the time, yes ? ....6) Morgan, Stanley, D,W, lowers rating on "MO", from "strong buy" at $ 41., to "weaker/neutral" at $ 34., Wed. 31st....as taught in my "Media" and "Scenarios" booklets, B-firms almost NEVER give outright "sell" rec's. to the clients who pay their overblown salaries....Gee, you'd think with all their resources, they'd have known everything Fundamental about MO, yes ? ....7) Nationsbank-Montgomery analyst, who was bullish on AFCI. much higher, became super-bearish on our AFCI. last week....around $ 7 ....Gee, if he had just gotten my NL, and/or known how to read a chart....And another analyst there, was super-bearish on TXCC at the low recently also....on a pullback, I may add TXCC.
e) have you been noticing more mergers/takeovers occuring at not-all-that-much-higher-than-recent-prices on the "target stock" ? and most all, using stocks, not cash (which I pointed out poreviously here)....I see this as more proof, of the extended nature of many stocks....again, I pose the question: if these guys are so smart, how come they always pay the highest price, but never buy those same companies' stocks near their lows ? Gosh, my "PSYCLE sm" could save some of them $ billions, yes ?
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "Covered
(previous) Short Sale", where no puts options existed....
puts ETEC (55 to 29) for VQ 300% G.....calls WHR (42 to 55-) for Q 200% G....bal. AXNT (38- to 24+) for 175% G....puts ANTC (28- to 19-) for VVVQ 175% G....bal. calls NE (12+ to 19+) for 150% Gain....bal. calls ESV (9 to 14) for 150% G....bal. calls RDC (9 to 14-) for 125% G....puts SEPR (140 to 111) for VQ 100% G....stock TPS (13/16 to 1 3/4) for 90% Gain....puts IIN (40 to 36) for Q 55% G....stock GW (13/16 to 1 7/16) for 66% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. SYBS (5+ to 8) for VVVQ 70% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. XTO (5+ to 8+) for 70% G....puts GGO (30 to 25-) for 90% G....bal. stock CFK (1 1/2 to 2 1/4) for 44% G....1/2 pos. WLV (19 to 22) for VQ 75% G....stk.on.mgn. TFN (4+ to 6+) for 80% G....css TWTR (38 to 28) for VQ 50% G....1/2 pos. OXY (15 to 18+) for VQ % G....note, I am giving you Gains in BOTH directions, simultaneously (and some Q, S, losses also).
Obviously, as with all buys, one must be real nimble with sales, as well, given the volatility here....for the umpteenth time, WE tend to lean towards being more conservative, Taking, Q, Large % Gains when have them, and Not sticking around, when ideas even approach saleable levels, "hoping" for more....Also remember, as taught in my booklets, many stocks have snap-backs, after patterns break, often allowing for two chances to cut a loss....
and/but, longs, CCBC, FAVS, ENN, BMS, NEM, TVX, KNE, PAM, ADM, GKI., and, puts, GMST (66 to 56 to 65), PKN (96 to 89 to 96), TVGIA, NOK/A, BCST, MCLD, MTNT, SFXE, CKFR, MBRS, EUSA, BBBY, ADVP, CYCL, MXIM, VISX, IBI., LSI., TD, for very quick, very small losses, of little overall consequence to a properly diversified portfolio....some of these cut PUT sales were "immediate", before you could have even bought their puts, but, in all honesty, I have always included these kinds of puts herein, FYI....I'll also bet almost none of you had Puts in anything recently, anyway....so no biggie ....But, as I said above, though I am still giving out plenty of Winners, I am also seeing too many depresseds and extendeds breaking recently....but we will not fight the tape....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy any Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their
patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just
buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with
less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent,
for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions"
have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(new ones) ASA @ 16+, BGP @ 14.06, BIO/A @ 20+, DRFNY @ 3 7/8, EEX @ 5-, IOM @ 4 11/16, LHSP @ 28+, LYO @ 13, MHR @ 2 13/16, MRVC @ 6-, TIE @ 5 13/16, TKLC @ 7+, VMRX @ 1.06,
(Note --- even smaller list) ABH @ 2, AFCI. @ 7+, AOI. @ 2 7/16, APM 3 11/16, ARG @ 8 3/16, ATV @ 1 3/16, AZC @ 9/16, BBA @ 3 3/4, BCP @ , BDE @ 2 3/8, BDT @ 3 9/16, BEZ @ 19+, BXH @ 4+, CAU @ 0.20, CCH @ 0.28, CEXP @ 4 1/2, CFS @ 3 11/16, CWC @ 7+, DHC @ 3-, DSGIF @ 2 7/8, EAR @ 9/16, ECO @ 1 11/16, ELY @ 10, FLH @ 8+, FWC @ 12-, GSR @ 3/4, HDG @ 1.06, HIV @ 1 11/16, L. @ 22+, NGX @ 0.53, PIN @ 4.06, SAA @ 0.75, SAMC @ 5 1/4, SGE @ 7+, SOC @ 5 9/16, SWW @ 2 3/16, TMO @ 13+, UMR @ 11/16, UQM @ 4+, VGZ @ 0.175, WKGP @ 1 11/16, WTT @ 1 9/16....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds...."buy low", right ?
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein,
countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT
"just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some
stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes
over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at
times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up
those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for
you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already
moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many
subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and
there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching"
NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly:
the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, COMS, IRID, MTSI., FFD, CYB, SMD, PMC, BMS, PP, NX, AEE, TVX, ASH, BOY, AEP, JDEC, DMN, TCA, LWN, NOV, SRV, ONX, GLB, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks, some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL. LEARN the patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol: (new ones) AGPH @ 58+, AIG @ 121-, ANTC @ 28-, DCLK @ 195, DH @ 69-, FTEN @ 40-, IDPH @ 53-, IMNX @ 93, INKT @ 87-, IPG @ 78+, MEG/A @ 48++, MSS @ 8-, SYY @ 28, USM @ 45-, VERT @ 111, VOD @ 189-, VRTS @ 86+, ZION @ 67+, (note, once again, bounces among Puttables, gave you more opportunities to catch them near highs)
and BTW, people keep asking me why I have not added AMZN or AOL or QCOM, as Puttable: simple: they do not yet have a top formation....while others, in those I.G.'s, do....Important "PSYCLE sm" Lesson I should not have to remind you: instead of trying to foster "your wishes/hopes" onto (or follow) stocks which do NOT yet have a perfect formation, trade the ones that DO have the attractive formations, now....
(and, note, some "new" repeats again) ADLAC @ 63-, ALTR @ 63, AMCC @ 45-, ARMHY @ 135-, BUD @ 77+, CL @ 94+, CM @ 45-, CMGI. 190, COST @ 93-, CSCO @ 111+, EGRP @ 60+, ETEK @ 36-, GCTY @ 119+, GNE @ 85+, GNET @ 151, HDL @ 13+, INSS @ 71-, INTU @ 105+, LLTC @ 55-, MKL @ 185+, MTNT @ 55-, NT @ 63, NTAP @ 53+, NTLI. @ 84, PSIX @ 44+, QWST @ 75, ROV @ 28+, SYKE @ 32+, TY @ 29+, VO @ 48+, YHOO @ 181....
do note, we still "Put" several issues which had minor new highs, and/or fakeout-breakouts, which should tell you I still expect drops in many extended stocks....
and/but, took, TEVIY, CYCL, LVLT, PRGN, TECH, PRM, VO, DV, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....any new highs = off the puts list....
IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web
site, a stock might break its extended S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed
EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy, or
put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still Added, as above....So I
am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying
any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and
therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted....this takes
just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues
which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then
incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the process is Your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", FRTE, CENT, MWHS, BLUD, PSEM, PCTL, HRBC, NRL, CPU, RSG, HCC, CGN, PMK, IDX, SIL, IM, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, PERC, ELNK, KIDE, PKE, FDX, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock here was specifically given herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently.... More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
ABH 2 3/4 up 7/8, HIV 2 1/4 up 1/2, VMRX 1 1/4 up 1/4, ATV 1 9/16 up 7/16, AFCI. 9 3/4 up 2 1/4, ANDW 13 1/8 up 1 7/8, LHSP 35 1/8 up 7 1/8, BUNZ 12 1/2 up 2, BDT 4 up 5/8, AAC 5 3/8 up 1, TXB 4 3/4 up 7/8, CWC 8 3/4 up 1 1/2, ELY 11 3/4 up 1 7/8, PAR 9 1/4 up 1 1/4, ALN 6 1/8 up 5/8, SYC 13 5/8 up 1 1/8, NWK 9 5/8 up 3/4, MEA 33 1/4 up 3 1/4, RML 20 3/8 up 1 3/4, IOM 5 1/4 up 3/4, BS 8 7/8 up 3/4, OCN 9 1/8 up 3/4, LYO 13 3/4 up 7/8, XTR 40 up 2, RYC 23 3/4 up 1 3/8, PMA 46 1/4 up 2 7/8, BIO/A 21 3/8 up 1 1/8, OXY 18 1/4 (sos), UPR 12 1/8, SWK 25 1/2, SYC 14, SYBS 8 1/8 (sos), COL 19 3/4, ASA 16 7/8, L. 23 1/2, WND 7 1/2, TKN 6 1/4, BXH 5 1/8, ARG 9, GW 1 1/2 (S), up/further, just since last time here....and, UPR, GW, hit their 200 DMA....and, SYBS, hit its 50 DMA....and HAL 41 (S), and ALD 51 (S), higher still....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some
subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, BDE 2 3/4 up 1/2, MRVC 6 1/2 up 1/2, WORK 7 3/8 up 7/8, ABH 2 1/8, ARG 8 3/8, TXB 4 1/8, FHCC 16, AFCI., SYBS, AAC, NDE, UQM, RJF, COE, COL, NPSI., SAMC, CS, CFS, XTR, HIV, AOI. 2 5/8, 3 3/8, 2 3/4, 3 1/4, BMC, GDC, ORI., CWC, NWK, SCZ, RYC, NVX, PIN, FLH, FWC, NVX, KTEC, TAROF, ISSI., BEZ, KRY, APFC, MCL, BBA, WKGP, SUL, CCH, RT, FJ, L., Metals ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) (note, this list is still Shrinking, get it ?) NPRO 2 1/2, 1 3/4, 2 3/8, IPIC, BDE, NDE, SGE, ISSI., APFC, VDC, SWW, KTEC, DHC, BCP, TXM, SSM, FLH, ADM, EAR, RYO, DAY, TMO, HPC, ORI., BBA, MCL, WKGP, CAU, VDC, AOI., WS, FWC, HCM, FJ, MSN, cheap golds....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
and, SYY, IIN, fell to their 200 DMA, and FITB, PKE, approaching their 200 DMA....also, AZA -6, PERC -10, CMCSK -3, down further....gave all these herein to you, near their highs....also note, EBAY, broke its neckline, dig ? we shall see.
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On next Weakness,
towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously long Puts right
near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned,
for Your Benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little
time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....
let them do their thing.
**** IMPORTANT, you MUST always view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and
present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow): (some new names here) many, many bounces: remember, as I
have been saying, almost all Puttables must, still, break below their recent
lows, as "follow-through", obviously, including, EBAY +9, VERT, INTU -6, +2, , YHOO +7, -5 1/2, CNET +4, -11, +3, QWST -2, PMCS -3, +4, INKT +3, XLNX +4, ALTR +5, INSS -2, +2, VRTS +3, PSIX -2, +2, -2, GCTY +4, -3, +3, LLTC -3, +3, -2, PWAV +1 1/2, WTSLA +2, -1, CMVT, CSCO -3, +2, CMGI., SYKE + 1 1/2, ALTR +3, TXN +2, ADLAC, ROV +1, -1, CLX -2, MSPG -2, CNMD +1 1/2, EGRP, ETEK +1 1/2, RTRSY +2, -2, BUD +2, -1, NTAP -1 1/2, +2, NTLI. +3, ASML -2, +3, COST +2, -3, IDPH +2 1/2, PROX -1, CL -2 1/2, HRL -1, DHR +1, VTSS, CTAS -4, +2 (sow), NT, CSGS +3, FTEN, NEG, CTS, HDL, GGO, OK -1 3/8, TY....Obviously, getting many Bounces, especially in Techs....but, can you find (m)any new highs ? didn't think so....get the message ?
again, we need to see many stocks break below recent lows/necklines, and, so
far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)"
sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns !
Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously
formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn patterns from.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
*** Note, these lists are shrinking....
Computer/Techs: please see all Techs, listed, in the "watching" section, just
below.
Prec.Metals (GSR, NGX, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DRFNY, AVGLY, ECO, all real cheapies, riskier, most need more work/time)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Copper) (LTV, BS, RTC, FNL, IGL, AG, OS)
Energy and Oil Svc. (TMAR, UMR, EEX, etc., near their recent lows, Only)
Biotech/Health/Medical (FHCC, BIO/A, TXB, HIV, COL, EAR)
"Staffing/Employment" and "Comp. Memory/Storage" (these may still be too early, am still researching potential names, which I may have more for you soon)
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy
list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": COMS, IRID, MTSI., FFD, SMD, CYB, PMC, BMS, TVX, PP, NX, AEE, ASH, BOY, AEP, JDEC, DMN, TCA, LWN, NOV, SRV, ONX, GLB, --- were taken Off....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....for one thing, we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first, and/or more fully formed "bases", yes ?
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY:
added some more (hey, its what the market tells me to add), adding, AVGLY, BAL, BDE, BGP, CDV, DRFNY, EEX, ESH, FLC, GRERF, HMT, IGT, IO., L., LHSP, MHR, OLS, SAB, OCR, SXTN, TGI., TIE, TKLC, TTRIF, U., USAD, WYG, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) AAC, ABH, ACX, ADGO, AIMM, ALN,
ANDW, AOI., APM, AR, ARG, BCP, BDT, BEZ, BKI., BLM, BMC, BYX, CEXP, CS, CWC, DHC, EAR, ECO, ELCO, ELY, FCH, FHCC, FLH, FLM, FTR, GDC, HCC, HDG, HL, HLX, HRBC, IOM, KTEC, LKI., LXR, MIDI., MLP, MLT, MRVC, MSN, MTSI., NVX, NWK, OEI., RDRT, RSC, RYC, SAMC, SCS, SGE, SHOW, SOC, SSN, SWK, SWW, SYBS, SYC, TMAR, TMD, TMO, TXM, TWA, UQM, VDC, VMRX, WKGP, WND, WTT, XTR, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....
New, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: TKLC, BGP, MI., CPU, MWHS, PSEM, MXTR, PCTL, GNCI., MLHR, GRL, are potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know....all need technical work....again, NOT Yet, but just to briefly give you an idea of what may be coming....
some right here, some Not just yet, as some still need more work, technically
....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force"
trades....note, I removed most all Utilities recently....
Remember, this is just a "watching to possibly buy" list !!! They only
become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, when/if they decline towards
lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over time, when
you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns ? This is
a positive, not a negative....note, we re-added some previously given names,
above here....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Medical: AGPH, PHCC, GENZ, GNE, IDPH, etc.
Internet-oriented: MSPG, ELNK, CMGI., GCTY, DCLK, EGRP, INSP, GNET, XMCM, YHOO, etc.
All types of Media: RTRSY, TRB, ADLAC, VCI., etc.
Telecom, Cellular, Cable, Commun.: CMVT, ETEK, EXDS, MEG/A, NTLI., PWAV, PROX, RG, USM, etc.
Semis: ALTR, LLTC, PMCS, VTSS, etc.
Retail: AEOS, HDL, CM, EAGL, HDL, etc.
Financials: AIG, AMO, FTEN, HIG, ZION, etc.
(all other "techs/computer-oriented, etc." are in lists below here, though, "computer enterprise software" stocks seem especially toppy)
also note, more Banks/Insurance, more Telecoms and Airlines look worse/toppy, as well....even some Energy stocks look toppy,S.T., a real surprise, ay ?
**** some new ones (half of these are repeated from last time here, and I
have removed those 'already down"): added, ABOV, DH, KIDE, XCIT, to,
ARMHY, BXM, CHV, DAL, FDX, FON, MCD, MEL, MSS, MTP, PSIX, PVN, QWST, SFE, SLR, SNE, TMX, TR, VERT, and,
("repeats") AEOS, ALSI., AMAT, AMCC, ASML, BBT, BMY, BUD, CMVT, CTAS, CTL, CTS, DHR, DLJ, ECL, INSS, MANH, MCRL, MFNX, MKL, MLNM, MNMD, MRIS, MSPG, NDN, NEG, NSOL, NTLI., OSI., OXHP, PMCS, PMI., RNWK, ROST, ROV, RTRSY, SCOR, SDS, SEBL, SYKE, SYY, TECH, TJX, TSFW, VERT, VRIO, VRTS....
>
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: Retail, Cap. Goods, Blue Chips, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech,
Bank/Insurance/Finance, Computer/Internet/Software, Entertainment, High-PE Techs, and all Tele.-Commun., near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
Given recent action, and more stocks to follow, no new lesson today....there
is plenty to learn and glean, from the commentaries above....
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort,
researching, finding, and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating
each NL itself, I have not had time to give more "Lessons" here lately, nor to
finish 3 more real valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons
you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7)
educational Booklets, I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm",
from 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those
section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....also take this time to VIEW
charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better
most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB
chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and
have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because,
historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut losses, will be more
than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly
Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY at least "some"
"Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable,
than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close
stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops, and July '98 tops, and drops, have
proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my
main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match
my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously,
have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things,
properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you
actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE
you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows,
for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming
you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from
the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....