Jim Goodman's "PSYCLE sm"

Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, issue # 184, dated: 9:30 am, PST, Monday, April 03, 2000

More help regarding my new services, for YOU: am moving along, as a 'special full-service investment broker' for You, clearing through the 2nd most powerful firm in the world....so, if you wish, I will/can do everything FOR you.... finding and choosing the stocks and investments that might best accomplish your situational needs....and, probably/possibly, doing better at this that you have been able to, while also saving you a lot of time and effort, over time....think about the potential benefits....please contact me again directly, at your convenience....I took this large career step, for You....and my continuing thanks to you for your interest and response....(949) 786-2577....

(this is in every NL): If you are a "NEWER" Subscriber, please take the time to read/printout ALL of the "wordy" parts of this NL, once or twice, anyway....If you are an "OLDER" Subscriber, of course, feel free to SKIP, or not print out, those specific NL sections/pages you do not wish to glean your information from. (Save/printout all my CUMULATIVE newsletters, for future reference/educational learning/help). If you are pressed for time, at least read Section (2) to develop a "feel" for Sentiment patterns --- and Section (3) always, while taking the time to actually View some individual stock CHARTS, "piecemeal" at least....Neither expect ME to stay "super hot" nor "super cold" forever. NO emotion --- and do NOT "just extrapolate the 'most recent results' forward, good or bad, forever" !!! Relax, take the time to VIEW/learn the patterns/charts, enjoy the process....

**** Realize, that probably at least 2/3 of each NL is the "same", each issue ! so, once you are familiar with the 8 sections, and our concepts, you should NOT have to spend much time with each NL....DO view at least SOME stocks charts, every day, a big secret to success ! Often, stocks in section (3) and (6) remain there for a while....so, if you just view a small bunch daily, you'd have all their patterns in your brain in just a few days, yes ? If pressed for time, just read section (1) and (2), and View some charts, from section (3)....as you have seen, I give a LOT, for very little money....spend 20-30 minutes, or spend 2-3 hours, with my output, twice a week, it's up to you.

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
Told you also, that the rally in the 'old economy' stocks was the real thing...well, Fri., the A/D was over 2000 up, under 1000 down, the best we have seen in a LONG time....more confirmation for many of our longsiders, dig ? Hey, with MSFT down Monday, think of how much higher the Dow would be, Monday, if it was not in the Dow....

Meanwhile, the NASDAQ index fell below 4400, to 4355, late Thursday....then many NASDAQ stocks rallied right from where they should have, Friday, with the index around that 'support' level....and, this morning, to 4330, so far, slightly lower than last week's lows, probably taking out some stops to whipsaw some of those now-losing daytraders....Mon. NASDAQ point loss about the biggest ever, yet again....perhaps we can look for those "V.S.T. bounces off lows, after the first hour or two, Tuesday" that has worked for us so often in the past....so, while the Media and the Fundamentalists pollute the airwaves with 'verbal junk', see how many parabolic NASDAQ stocks, have already fallen 30-50 % real fast, before 'the 95 %' even noticed, as usual....just as they should have....For the umpteenth time, we see them worrying about something, only after already happened, and they missed selling anywhere near the highs....

And, add to that, in the new chartbook over the weekend, I see that the N.Y. Comp. index at 655+ (and the DJIA itself around 11,500+ if so) is already up near its S.T. resistance, and the DJ. Trans. Avg. and the DJ. Util. index, are both approaching their 200 DMA resistance levels....and, the "10-day S.T. advance/decline overbought/oversold index' is also at resistance level, dig ? So, as I said before here, do NOT expect huge new rises tobegin from here, even in our longsiders....at least not until many recent-bouncers pullback a bit, first....Things continue to progress as predicted/expected overall....relax....

Meanwhile, some NASDAQ stocks have already fallen to their Moving Averages as potential S.T.support, while others are fulfilling further, to the downside.... keep your eye on those 50-and-200-day Moving Averages, or in-between, as initial downside targets, as taught....see section (5) below for follow-ups and patterns to learn from, as usual....

Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more, as befits market conditions....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And, the "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2). Longer lists, and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7).... and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). Of course, if you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you may choose to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage, over time.

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:1) neat, I was, again, the first and only, to very recently suggest S.T. bottoms in Chem. stocks here last time, and, Thu., CNBC's Bob Pisani, 11 am, pointed out their nice pops all-of-a-sudden....again, 'linking' Chems. with "oils" may work out.... 2) also near-perfect with Semis.... 3) and with the T-bond, whose yield after I mentioned recent breakout in price (breakdown in yield) herein, falling to 5.87 %....don't get me started again on how one cannot 'link' yield, with prices/movements of stocks.... 3) gee, CNBC guys mentioned the DJ. Trans. Avg. up lately ---late, as usual....oh well, at least we were the first to go bullish near recent lows for you.... 4) also notice, I was, again, the first/only to have added the 'foreign telecom' stocks as puttables, and they are correcting.... 5) and, as I said previously here first, note recent BIG corrections among the previously-parabolic "superconductor' stocks....hah....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) CNBC's emotional reporter-gal, Fri., incorrectly, again, said, "interest rates are WAY down..." Excuse me, but 6.75 % to 5.86 % is NOT 'way down', is it ? ....2) L.A. Times, front-page article -- late, as usual -- "those Bagel Shops: are they Toast ? Industry leaders (Noah's, Manhatten) are in financial trouble as food fad of the '90's fades...." EXACTLY as I was, again, the first/only to have predicted, in this NL, and, on T.V. And, once again, 'the experts' who loved those stocks at their highs, destroyed the masses, as their stock prices tanked ....the pattern rarely changes....oh, and, watch for the same, but not to quite as bad an extent, to transpire, ahead, with a lot of those overpriced, unnecessary, ubiquitous Coffee places....I already was right shorting Deidrichs and Starbucks once....it will happen again....and don't kid yourself.... it will also happen when Krispy Kreme stock tanks, off a parabolic high.... 3) "PSYCLE sm" perfect: L.A. Times, only last Friday, 3/31, had its Business Sec. headline, "NASDAQ in correction"....gee, thanks for telling us something only AFTER it already occured....not....and publishes that right as many stocks bottom, V.S.T., Friday, dig ? They showed a table, illustrating how, as I said here recently, an all-time record $ 53.6 billion poured into high-tech. M. Funds in Feb. '00 -- right at their highs ! I love it....so, as usual, a bunch of people now have big paper losses, so far, unprotected/unhedged....and unhelped by The Media.... 4) and, same L.A. Times front-page, "Auditors doubt future health of Dr. Koop's website" as I was also the first/only to have predicted herein previously, when I expressed my reservations about a guy in his position trying to exploit his lucky govt. fame for personal fiscal gain, rather than to help people first (as I always have)....tought toenails, guy.... learn my "PSYCLE sm", and find ME the financial backing YOU had, then see how much good I do for others....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:1) geez, we just missed getting Puts by one day, in 'CS', Thu. fell to $ 28, down 22, wow, neat....pattern was/is worth learning from, though.... 2) Carl (wall street hates him) Icahn, bought a bunch of our "NGH", 11 3/4 up 2 3/4 Thu., which we also just barely missed, but YOU could have caught both stocks, herein.... 2) Fri., CNBC's M.C. Cabrera, again, 10:37 am, highlighted "CCL", as super-negative...right as it begins to base, see it ? sure when I was bearish herein near its high for you, they loved it....the pattern rarely changes....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:1) Barron's 3/18, said, a study of of the 228 Internet IPO's that came out 1/1/99 to 2/18/00, found only 37 % remain above their offering price ! surprise....but, as I mentioned previously herein, that's the historical norm....FACT....regardless of what everyone out there 'says'....and, as usual, 'they' are wrong....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) ....

As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically 'closed-out' trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and when you see "bal." here in section (3), that means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:
a bunch more (21) Puts Gains for you: puts: ITWO (177- to 95+) for Q 200% G....HNCS (118+ to 73+) for Q 166% G....all ENT (118 to 80) for Q 111% G....all EXTR (115+ to 78) for VVQ 111% G....bal. ASDV (92+ to 60) for VVQ 111% G....1/2 pos. SFE (94- to 67+) for VVQ 100% G....1/2 pos. ADI (90 to 69+) for VVQ 100% G ....1/2 pos. LSI (85- to 66+) for VVQ 133% G....bal. VNWK (81+ to 55) for 125% G ....ADIC (48 to 34) for VVVQ 111% G....1/2 pos. ASML (144- to 110) for 111% G.... bal. ITIG (44 to 30-) for Q 111% G....1/2 pos. HHH (189 to 157) for VVVQ 100% G ....1/2 pos. TEK (70- to 54+) for VQ 80% G....1/2 pos. HWP (148 to 131) for VVQ 75% G....1/2 pos. CHL (195 to 170) for VVQ 75% G....1/2 pos. ADVS (61- to 47) for VQ 80% G....1/2 pos. INFA (100- to 80-) for VVQ 80% G....bal. TEF (93 to 74+) for Q 100% G....1/2 pos. LSCC (77 to 66) for VVQ 66% G....css EMKR (156 to 85) for VQ 80% G....TXN ?, NTLI. ?, and, bal. calls IM (11+ to 15+) for % G....bal. calls JEF (20+ to 24) for 66% G....

and/but, longs, DEMP, TSK, HCN, PDQ, HUG, FOE, FIX, BBA, PZN, LAN ?, BI. ?, bal. HLTH, and, puts, DYN, UVN, MMC, MC, for very quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs): (note: If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables", long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a " + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-, means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:
1/2 pos. AU @ 23+, 1/2 pos. CSCQ @ 4 1/2, 1/2 pos. DNY @ 20+, 1/2 pos. GGUY @ 4 1/8, 1/2 pos. HET @ 18+, 1/2 pos. HLT @ 7++, 1/2 pos. JDN @ 10+, 1/2 pos. PBY @ 5++, PZB @ 16++, 1/2 pos. RSG @ 11-, 1/2 pos. RTHM @ 30+,

"Repeats": ASHW @ 4 1/8, ASL @ 2, AW @ 5++, BGO @ 5/8, BI. @ 3 5/16, CAU @ 0.25, CCH @ 0.175, CKR @ 6+, CMX @ 4-, CQB @ 4, CTHR @ 7, DAY @ 0.07, DEMP @ 3 11/16 ?, ECO @ 1 3/8, EEE @ 1.06, EQR @ 39++, FC @ 7-, FCH @ 17, FNT @ 4+, FNV @ 16, GRL @ 7+, HELE ?, HRP @ 7++, IEE no ?, IFSIA @ 4, IKN @ 6, JBM @ 2+, LII. @ 9 ?, LMM @ 4-, MGA @ 38++, MHX @ 15, NHR @ 8-, NSI. @ 21, OHI. 6+, PDX @ 7+, PIC @ 2++, PMC @ 8, PTX @ 4, RDL @ 3, RPD @ 2+, RTN/B @ 17++ ?, SFI. @ 16++, SRE @ 17 ?, SRS @ 1.40, SSRI. @ 1 9/32, TEN @ 7+, TMG @ 5++, TOK @ 3, TVX @ 0.75, URI. @ 14+, UVV @ 14+, WNC @ 14...."buy (only) low", right ? still, a nice long, growing list for you to choose from....you have (had) NO excuse for not catching these....you have had plenty of opportunity to do so...

NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the charts of the stocks herein, first, before acting....and there ARE subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....

*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion, diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and sentiment/media, patterns.

** Important: took, , Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms ....or tops, for that matter....

Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks, some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the patterns !

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) 1/2 pos. AIG @ 110, 1/2 pos. AMCC @ 150, 1/2 pos. AXA @ 73-, GPS @ 50, 1/2 pos. LHSP @ 115, 1/2 pos. LINK @ 100, 1/2 pos. NBR @ 38+, 1/2 pos. TCNO @ 44+,

"Repeats": BRCM @ 243, DYN @ 59+, MACR @ 90, PME @ 27+, RYAAY @ 46,....

and/but, took, TBL, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....

*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", PMS (wow), ANF, CBRL, CAG, HPC, BTI, ECP, STK, LPX, FWC, FGH, BUD, KWK, UNP, DME, CIT, NFB, ABF, ACL, BIR, UNM, CMH, WXS, FMO, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CS (wow), EDS, SEG, CAMP, CMOS, TXCC, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently ....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, you may catch ones, which I miss, herein....

I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit. Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for YOUR future benefit.

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....
4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):
(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).

still giving you some nice risers (note, these have always been listed, in order, from the biggest % moves, to the smallest important most recent % price moves): read this, and the last few lists here, thoroughly, carefully, and check their Charts to see the Patterns:

RTHM 37 1/2 up 8, CQB 5 up 1 1/8, CQ 20 1/4 up 4, BIS 2 5/8 up , GGUY 4 5/8 up 5/8, FNT 5 up 7/8, IM 15 1/2 up 1 11/16 (S), UVV 16 9/16 up 1 9/16, FLO 15 1/4 up 1, URI. 17 1/4 up 1 3/8, ARV 23 7/8 up 2 7/8, CPC 20.44 up 2.08, HRP 8.93 up 1/2, HLT 8 3/16 up 11/16, HET 19 up 1, MGA 40.31 up 1.69, NSI. 21 3/4, ATI. 20 9/16, MO 21.44, EQR 40 1/2, GY 9, LMT 21 1/4, ASL 2 3/16, UVV 15 3/8, FCH 18, FLO 14 3/8, AU 24 3/16, TMG 6 13/16, BWL/A 7 3/4, GOU 3.93, RPM 11, FSS 18 1/2, AIM 11, NNN 10 5/8, MBG 17.06. KR 18 1/4, PBY 6 1/8, ASL 2 1/4, higher since last time here....

and, PIR 10+, ASH 34, ABF 24, ACL 23, CMH 10+, higher still....while, ASH, EFX, TJX, DOL, FLO, GLH, LPX, IM, DCN, rose to approach/hit their 200 DMA....see the pattern ?

note: please try to appreciate, that I have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....always view the One-year, Daily charts....

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and/or bounces off pullbacks: UVV 15, 16, LZB 16 3/8 up 1, GGUY 4, DHI. 14 up 1 1/2, MAH 11.93 up 1.68, SAH 9 7/16 up 5/8, MCK 21 1/4, RTN/B 17++, VISX 18 1/4 up 1 1/2, IFSIA 4.37 up 0.40, OHI. 6 1/4 dn 3, MO 22 1/8, RTHM 32 1/2, TOM 14 5/8, GY 7 3/4, 9 1/4, TSA, SRE, RJR 17 3/8, CONV 11-, WNC, AZC, TEN, CTHR, ODP, FNT, OCN 7 3/4, SOC, CMX, RPD, RBK, AVL, SFI., TIE, NHR, HA, OH, AW, BMC, PCG, IGL 15 91/6, TOK, IOM, TVX, GRL, MSN, TOM, ASHW, WCC, ECO, PDQ, DAY, BGO, VGZ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, get it ? those below must really strengthen or else....

Again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed Stocks", even/especially in Pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible & illogical, to expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to 10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2 ....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of "instant/S.T. gratification".

and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:

(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) DEMP 3 5/8, CGX 13-, IFSIA, SFI., STEI, GRL, LAN, BGO, MHX, MSN, ASHW, RTN/B, LII, IEE, SHW, FTL, LZB, GSB, HELE, SRS, CMX, MHR, LMM, FNT, PMC, BI, NCI, "golds" ....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, stick around:
Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out: many nice drops lately, ay ? : read list Carefully to learn:
ITWO -33, STM +17, -26, ASDV -13 (S), HNCS -11 1/2, MACR +16, -11, ASML -10 1/2, ENT -6, EMKR -8 (S), EXTR -9 (S), KLAC -8, ADI. -7, LSCC -6, INFA -6, HHH +5, -13, CSGS -9 (sow), VRTS +31, -37, TXN -5, LSI. -5, ITIG -4, TEK -6 1/2, NTLI. -2, SFE -6, KLIC -4, CHL -3, HELX +3, -7, EXTR -3, MACR -3, AXA -2 1/2, INFA -2 1/4 (S), HWP -2, TEF -1 1/2, SMTC -1, NTLI. -1, CDN -1, lower, since last NL here....and, CREE fell even further, to 110, RNWK 50, CRGN 40, below their 200 DMA....

while, ALLR, BRKS, ADVS, ADIC, KLAC, ASDV, ADI, LSI, INFA, CHL, HWP, TEK, CMTN, EXPD, PMCS, fell to hit their 50 DMA, and, CSGS, EXTR, LSCC, NTLI, NWS, SFE, AFCI, INFA, HNCS, are falling to approach their 50 DMA, and, ASDV, LSI, ADI, LSCC, fell to their 'necklines', and, SCMM, EMKR, KLIC, ITWO, ITIG, HELX, MACR, VRTS, HHH, CMTN, fell below their 50 DMA....and, now, EXTR, BVF, CRGN, MLNM, NVDM, NEON, VERT, VNWK, HNCS, AFFX, fell to/approached their 200 DMA's....For the umpteenth time, watch those 50-day and 200-day MA's !!! (and, the 'necklines' at recent lows, on Techs)....one might take VQ, 1/2-position, Puts Gains, at these kinds of initial downside levels....up to you....

Every one of these WAS specifically given you herein in section (7) near their highs....note: obviously, with the parabolics having risen so fast, they will not need to fall much, to reach their steeply-rising, 50 DMA's....So, expect many of them to fall to between, their 50-day, and 200-day, MA's....

Note: these 'points changes moves' have always been listed, by "number of points falling -, or, rising +", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously bought long puts On next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
: ITIG +3, TXN +5, ITWO +24, EXTR +4, CHL +6, -8, SMTC +4, NTIQ +6, PME -1, WON -1, +2, BRCD +18, -16, BRCM +40, -19, GNET, VO, DQE, BRW +3 1/2, ALLR +9, ADO +1 1/2, SCMM +11, -9, +3, RMD +6, ENT +4, RYAAY +2, ADI. +8, -7, TXN +3, SFE +7 1/2, HWP +2 1/2, CDN +1 1/2, LSI. +6 1/2, -4, HHH +9, -9....still, many parabolics are refusing to completely breakdown, below their recent 'necklines'....so, watching for that....and, seeing plenty of those bounces off oversold levels, I told you to watch for....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Be patient here, and do not "force" trades, or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also, there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the next two sections here....View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan", one should probably not do the real cheapies, etc.

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):

Health-relateds (RAD, HRC, CMX, PDX, MCK, HS, VISX, BSX, STEI. ?, HELE ?, HMSY)
Prec. Metals (BGO, ECO, DAY, CCH, SSRI, etc., longer-term, and still watching the others as well)
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (EQR, FCH, HRP, SRE, MHX, HCN, SFI, KPA, NHR, NHI., KRC, PAG, BPP, BTR, ALI., JDN, etc.)
Retails/Apparel (ASHW, HMY, RDL, TSA, RBK, RML, PTX, etc., and, from Value LIne, IFSIA ?, WWW, KWD, TOM, PTX, KM, RBK, longer-term)
Financials/Banks (most are already popping, ay ?)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (MHX, WNC, BNI, GT, GY, AVL, CNI, DHI., TEN, DPH, PBY, CFWY, ARV, MGA, HA, URI, etc.)
* plus, adding some "Leisure" names, to, Computer Memory/Storage, R.E.-and Mtg.-relateds, "Housing-related", Gaming (MGB, HLT, HET), Waste, Funeral, stocks, down the road....and, longer-term, most Food (RJR, MO, FLO, CAG, CKR, IHF), Grocery (DZA, KR, ABS, GAP), Steel (BIR, LTV, BS), Cap. Goods, Aero./Def. (RTN/B, LMT, HXL, LOR), Energy (EEE, HEC, TSO, SWN, GOU, TRP), still a.o.k.
and, ahead at some point, Toys, most Cyclicals, Chem. stocks, as well....and, Tobaccos (UVV, MO, RJR, BTI, LTR), Airlines, Utilities (SRE, PCG, NSI), 'Correction', Industries....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):
Remembering ONLY to buy near their recent Lows (do not "pay up" much off lows), diversified, w/close stops....these, plus the stocks listed just above/below, and the "Newly Boughts" in Section (3) above, comprise the "total" complete long-side buyable lists in today's market....note, the vast majority of stocks are "repeats" each issue....if you just view "some" each day, in a few days, you will have seen all of them, and culled the best-looking ones, saving you much time and effort, yes ? it's up to you....

We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order,

"watching" list: note, is growing, yes ? but most have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, yes ?
add, ZOOX, SOI, UNP, GGUY, GAP, HXL, PZB, TRP, CEN, FNV, AKS, HET, JCP, HII, BID, TIN, CHD, FWC, HNP, TCC, MLG, AIR, CTO, FTN, FO, FMO, HPC, HNZ, to, DNY, PG, YUM, ASN, AU, DURA, FNT, BI, GLH, MZ, UCL, TCC, WXS, WAC, BDG, BGC, GON, HSM, HUG, IMR, IEE, CEN, FC, HPT, MAG, MAT, RTHM, AJX, GLC, AIM, LPX, CSX, CAT, IGL, ODP, SVM, ECP, FTL, FJ, SUT, KEY, RSG, TVX, BWL/A, RDL, XCL, ASE, AW, FGH, IKN, MDC, AJX, MPH, WAC, BMC, BDN, EFX, FMT, BGC, SRS, LII., ASL, DROOY, NGH, WMI, AIN, SAH, TIE, IO, SGI, AN, LUB, TEI, TGLO, OMI, CHKE, LAN ?, GSR, JBM ?, MPH, JDN, CGX, USL, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns ....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....

The last list, was/is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They normally only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over time, when you have just a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns ? This is a positive benefit for you, not a negative....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, as all others have been removed (like most all "Biotechs"):

obviously, this list will have Shrunken, by Thursday, as many Techs are already falling, right ? caught a bunch for you, while just missing some from last NL here....I am removing all those which already fell to their still-rising 50-DMA's....even though some of them might become puttable again on further strength, as per my "booklet"....

* add, TCNO, NXTL, PRGN, ORTL, MNMD, SDLI, LINK, ISSX, LHSP, TMPW, XLNX, NBR, DITC, CMOS, LSCC, AMCC, AIG, SLB, AXA, TBL, CSGS, ADTN, CMTN, EXAR, HRBC, HELX, MPWR, RBAK, TECH, SMTC, VSTR, AMT, CDN, CBS, EMT, FSH, TXN, GPS, SBH, VSH, SLB, DYN, CAM, and most "webs" foreign index securities, to, KLAC, XLA, FCL, RYAAY, UTCI, CLRS, BRCD, GMH, ARMHY, SMTC, BRKS, CMGI, CIEN, COGN, CTSH, APEX, TIBX, IVIS, ETA, PUMA, VRTS, VO, NTIQ, WON, SSTI, TV, from recent past NL's,

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and, understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at least Semi-parabolic: add, Energy Services again, to, Enterprise/software, Electronics- specialty instruments, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, Home/Jewelry/Silverware/watches/china, High-PE Techs, Media, and most all Tele.-Commun., Foreign and Telecom, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....

8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:

NEW: just a quickie today: do note, how, the extended 'Biotechs', which I was first/only to have given out herein as Puts near their parabolic highs, recently, have all corrected -- right to around their 200 DMA's....get it ? for example, check out: GLGC, PDLI, INCY, IDPH, HGSI, GENE, MEDX, HLIT, MLNM, AFFX
....once again, we see similar companies, in the same I.G., with similar chart patterns, at the same time....how many more times do I have to show you this simple pattern stage, before you take advantage near highs ? please re-read my "Industry Group Rotation" booklet....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES

**** The following several paragraphs are in every NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding, and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....

NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4 follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy (sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3), iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future, provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.

Remember, the time length of the full trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc., depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential 10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use 1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds, and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.

IMPORTANT: people keep trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of each stage.

As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close stops....

Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops, and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.

I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....