Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, ended formally, back in early April 2000, with issue # 207+, a while ago....(so/but this NL is Not really being actually published formally, publically, any more, and has not been, for quite a while now ....I just wanted a place to keep track of what I would have said and done and felt, since I was forced undeservedly to stop my NL, months ago....this is ONLY for my own edification and proof of the value of my output and concepts to others), and anyone reading this has NOT gotten it from me....
dated: 9:30 am, PST, Wednesday, April 4, 2001


"2001: a Trading Odessey"

or, "The Patterns Rarely Change"

Important Note: this serious, very valuable "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, due to the too-often at least semi-gestapo, uncaring, ridiculous, illogical, NASD/SEC rules, and the uncaring, inconsiderate, and thoughtless nature of most all brokerage firms....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, here, twice each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance, very-long-term track record, and to offer further significant, in-advance, in-writing, 'proof' of the value and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

Obviously, NASDAQ-wise, most longside bets were off, when that index broke below the 1800+ level, and I don't think I have a single person I am in contact with, who is buying much of anything, nor has, for a while....still holding good amounts of cash, have endured only minor additional damage, and all wish they had done more Puts with me, as usual....while the most recent breakdowns are disappointing, damage has been rathe low compared to all the stories I hear directly and indirectly from others, and, as usual, WE will likely be there first, and best, off eventual lows, longside....

So, one must continue to selectively buy depresseds still in patterns not yet broken down, and also take a shot at some huge names in potential EVB's, here and now.... diversifying, close stops, low risk, big potential when/if correct....it is that simple, here....and, last, do note, I continue to have given you many very successful Puts all along, though, as I said, that list shrinking....and, once again, while 'the 95% and the Media' may be 'waiting for some kind of capitulation' (as if that would ever show up in a generally disseminated manner (re-read my booklets), WE know the turn and fast big pops will occur 'from out of nowhere', and probably soon....and they will miss them, as usual....

and do notice the plethora of new section (6) pot. long buys all of a sudden I give you today....all have remained in patterns of bases or EVB's, so far, still....do it....and, except for a few rare clunkers, 'the 95%' are gonna be real upset they sold stuff down here, hence...oh, one last thing, for those who insist on trying to 'link' fundamental announcements to stock prices: realize, if every single Tech. stocks has already been 'lowering their eps guidance', and they are already down -66 % to -95 %, then many have GOT to be buys soon, yes ? at least for 'in-between reporting periods' bounces, right ?

and, just B4 this was put onto web, CNBC finally - get this - did a story on Rydex "short-side" M. funds - get it ? saying, "this is a great way to hedge or participate in declines...." very Late, again, as usual, dig ? take heed, and do the opposite !

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) first, I will again take credit for being the only/first to give out many Energy/Service stocks as Puts herein from recent tops for you, for S.T. drops....2) and, a client kudo'd me for being the first to, on KWHY-TV, predict the huge declines in Internet-type stocks from their parabolic tops late 1999 and early 2000, my saying that probably 2/3 of all such companies would not even exist 3-5- years hence from then....while a very small % of them ran higher first, most fell tremendously, therefrom, yes ? and, even those that rose a bit first, fell -90 % anyway, right ? and NONE of those holders from those middle-tops sold any before huge drops, anyway, as usual in the pattern, ay ? the sequential pattern rarely changes.... 3) and, interestingly, i was the first/only to (correctly-so-far give out some depressed-hated-feared Japan stocks herein, SNE, MBK, etc., fobd's ? ...and be sure not to miss some of the 'power stocks' i gave recently here near their lows....sometime betwen here and this summer, those are all likely to have pops, regardless, yes ? if only to sucker people in again, after their big % S.T. rises coming, dig ?

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) I gotta say it....CNBC's M.C. Cabrera has develeoped a shockingly annoying speech impedement....while I would not say this about someone NOT overpaid to talk in the air, it is very upsetting to try to listen to her, so I don't - and millions of listeners get hurt - again.... 2) J. Kernan, CNBC, Tue., trying to sensationalize (re-read my booklets), vastly misleading, saying, "the Drug index is SOARING, up 3 points, to 634...." similarly, gal reporter misled, "the Gold stocks are up huge...." uh, NO, wrong....'nuff said.... 3) more CNBC bull, Wed., with a reporter asked, "but where is the real pain ? where is the gut-wrenching, end-of-the-world pain ? I don't see it from anyone I speak with/...." Which is, of course, total BS....it is all around....just proves again how ignorant those people in Media are....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) as the first/only to give out AZA at top as VG put herein for you, as per my Booklets, one should wonder why JNJ could not have easily bought out AZA near $ 20, or its base in 1999 nearer $ 11+, instead of paying over $ 40, dig ? ....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) as expected, seeing more and more analysts just now beginning to come out with negative reports on all sorts of Tech. companies, in stage 7, as usual, ay ? thanks for nothing, fellas all.... 2) and TONS of wrong analysts finally lowered their opinions on ARBA, BVSN, CMRC, EPNY, DCTM, ENTU, INKT, today - amazing, huh....but I have been chronicling that behavior for months here, yes ?

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1)

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....

"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:

still more Puts Gainers for you....aren't you glad you have always had a few Puts withe me ? all puts TDW (50 to 41+) for Q 75% G....all puts UNT (20 to 15+) for VQ 125% G....all puts NOI (40 to 32+) for VQ 75% G....1/2 pos. puts ATVI. (24+ to 21-) for VVVQ 60% G....1/2 pos. puts RCII. (46 to 36) for VQ 90% G.... 1/2 pos. puts ADM (16- RO 12+) for Q % G....bal. puts HUM (14+ to 10) for % G....

and/but, longs, bal. GSPN (19+ to 26+ to 19-), SPCT, FBR ?, QQQ, KEI, NOVL, RHAT, AMZN, ZMBA, SNDK, INKT, TERN, VIGN, LSI, and, puts, none, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:

(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs):
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:

1/2 pos. BCU @ 5/8, SNWL @ 10, TMCS @ 7++,

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): BGO @ 0.405, BSRTS @ 5 1/2, CAS @ 8.8, CBJ @ 1/4, CC @ 10+, CCRT @ 7+, CTHR @ 0.85, DD @ 40, FON @ 20+, GAB @ 10, HNV @ 1/4, IN @ 5+, IOM @ 3 1/2, KRY @ 3/4, MGM @ 16-, PPE @ 10-, ROS @ 5-, SAWS @ 16+, SFE @ 4++, SONE @ 6+, TG @ 15+, X @ 14-...."buy (only) low", right ?

** Important: took, ACTL, ITXC, RHAT, RFMD, NITE, OPTV, PRGN, REMC, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.".... we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops:
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): ASFC @ 55, TJX @ 33,

"Repeats": ATVI. @ 25-, CNT @ 47+, EIX @ 15, GCO @ 26++, HSIC @ 34+, JNY @ 39, KPP @ 34-, LNCR @ 58, PBG @ , PPL @ 46, TDW @ 50-,

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", MTSC, NTOP, AXP, NXCD, IDCC, AU, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, , as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):

**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).



acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn the pattern, more:
still more nice Gains for you, all through recent travails, ay ? :
CWCO 9 7/8 up 1 1/2, IN 6 3/4 up 1 7/8, MT 4 1/2 up 1, CC 12 1/2 up 2 7/8, RNWK 7 7/8 up 1 1/4, TG 17.6 up 2, TMCS 8 up 1/2, IOM 3 3/4 up 1/4, SNWL 10 3/4 up 7/8, DITC 11 1/2, MGM 17.45, BWL.A 9 3/4, higher since last NL here....and, USU 8 3/4, even higher still....

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and more bounces after pullbacks:
VRTA 12- dn 1, RNWK 6.56, 7.21, SNBC, CTHR 0.90, 1.11, CC 11+ (B), KRY, RCG, CAS, HPOW, HA, SVRN, HNV, GAB, VRA, BCU 0.66, MT 3.91, STTX, INFA, FON 21.7, 20.5 (B), SAWS 16+ (B), AWE 17+, SFE, DD 41.7 up 1.6, TG 17 1/2 up 2, MGM 16-.... some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....


and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:


(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) ASML 19-, 20++, IOM 3.22, LNUX, CCRT, PAP, SNBC, CTHR, DCLK 10-, INSP, SFE, KANA, STG, ASML 19, NOVL 4 5/8....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:

(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, stick around:

Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out to learn:
RCII. -10 (S), TDW -4 1/2, ATVI. -4, GCO -2 1/2, TJX -2 1/2, ATBI. -2, HUM -2 (S), JNY -1 1/2, UNT -1 1/4, RCII. -1, ASFC -1 1/2, PBG -1, BMET -1, CMH, ADM, lower since last NL here....and, CBE 32, PLXS 20, even lowr still.... and, Oil Svc. and Health puttables fell to their 200 DMA, as only I expected/predicted from recent tops....

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):

: LNCR +2, -3 1/2, MNI, CNT, BDK, EXC, PPL, HSIC, RL, BMET +1 1/2, ATVI> +1 3/8, AEP, EIX -1, PCG -1, SOTR....this ends our 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):


these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (BSRTS, FRT, HCN, TCC, ARI, ARJ, TCO, JPR, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (CAS (also nice pot. div.), CBJ, KRY, STTX, KGC, etc.)
depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, Golds, STEEL, and most Chem., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Papers, Apparel, Regional Banks/Finls.

*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, emi., comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):

We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not broken down, nor popped up too much recently, already, before you buy, as I Removed a bunch already-up's, and broken-down's from last NL list here...always check current price to see they have not broken between publication and when you view them) added, BMC, BOW, BRW ?, CS, CA ?, CY, DT ?, ET, HRS, IBI, JBL, KMT ?, LTD, N, PRGS, LSCC, IDCC ?, JDAS ?, HOMS, HIFN, GLGC ?, ELNT ?, LENS, CLTK ?, BELM ?, BCGI. ?, ATMI, ALSC ?, AMSC ?, INFS ?, APCC, UFI., NZT, KFY, ENTU ?, MSO ?, MPS ?, TRMB ?, MLT, MAXY, LPTH ?, PPE, JRC, CCK ?, BKI, MBK, CGO, ARI, AVX, VOD ?, TSM ?, UTSI. ?, TER ?, SCI. ?, IDTI. no, to, PWER, CC, AWE, DD, MGM, ABSC, ASML ?, GOTO, PLUG, TMCS, PKI, X, NCX, CTC, NEM, SNWL, BRIO, QTRN, SNWL, PRGN, DCLK ?, VRTA, IOM ?, RNWK, SONE, NOPT ?, SFE, HPOW, IN, SONE, TMCS, DITC, GRA ?, GRL ?, CTHR, FCTR, CBR, MPH, STLD, BS, GSPN, TG, ZRAN, PDG, SVRN, AU, CRDS, FNV, CCRT, CAS, KGC, RCG, TSTN, KNT, BLDP, HLIT ?, PRSF, NTOP ?, NMSS, NTRO no ?, ASYT, MWBX, TRAC, SNE, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, as all others have been Removed:

* add, SGR, CF, ITG, SPH, UNH, TFX ?, ASFC, BSYS, CHIC, COCO, CHTR ?, WCNX ?, (note list shrinking again a bit, mostly due to Gainers gave you): APOL, ATVI, SOTR, RCII, BMET, HSIC, KPP, ASBC, GCO, JNY, SNV, SSP, SKE, to, JCI, PBG, LNCR, IVGN, CV, EXC, WAG, ALSI, EXPD, PPDI, DUK, TJX, PIR, MET, PX, PNC, BRO, CYTC, CNT, INSUA, CMH, MNI., DHI, from recent past NL's....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services (but some are already down, yes ?), Commercial Services, Tobacco, Trans., Enterprise/software, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Fuel Cell, Homes-related/bldg., Computer/Internet/Software/Services, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES