1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:1) I love it....Monday, CNBC reported, the biggest loser I.G.'s, were, Semis, Internet, Telecom, Computer, Biotech (all give you herein first), and biggest rising I.G.'s, were, Tobacco, Building-related, Banks, Leisure/Toys (all which, I was, of course, the first/only to have all specifically given you herein)....neat.... 2) observing the further under-performance among Internet stocks, and given my first-to-say original opinion from their initial S.T. top in early 1999, it should be interesting to see more mergers in this I.G. also occuring well below the acquiree's all-time highs, another "I-said-it-first" prediction, already occuring, in the Energy, and Financial industries.... 3) once again, we may have been the first/only to have caught the extended Energy Service stocks correctly as puts for you....is kinda easy to see potential S.T. tops in, SLB, NBR, CAM, etc., yes ? ....4) while I did NOT give them as recent puts herein, note the tops-and-drops in Brokerage/Online stocks -- just as Wall St. re-got bullish again on them, as I pointed out herein not too long ago, dig ? the pattern rarely changes....and, might I go down in history as having been the first/only to predict the short-term-at-least 'end of the lucky-yuppie paper net worth rise' ? we shall see....
5) meanwhile, the T-bond continued to rise, as expected, with its yield down to 5.68 %, Tuesday....of course, the Media will give that tired "flight to quality, out of NASD stocks" as the "reason" (please re-read my booklet on "Scenarios/Reasons"), but you and I know better....and, of course, any institutions doing that, did that 'switch' by selling NASDAQ stocks after their big falls -- near their lows -- and buying the T-bond only after a nice rise.... dig ? and they get paid for doing that ? ....6) also note, Tues., with cash Gold up + $ 9., how the major gold STOCKS have not risen much, dig ? ....7) last, also in perfect "PSYCLE sm" technical chart-pattern behavior, note the Biotech stocks bouncing up almost exactly right from their Moving Average support levels, yes ? are you learning ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) CNBC's Martha (emotional) McCallum, Mon., 10 am, incorrectly said, "MSFT stock is getting trampled"....hmmm, $ 90. that day, down 'only' $ 16., is certainly NOT "trampled", especially when tons of other Techs ARE actually getting trampled, which she did not report....please re-read my "Scenarios/Words" booklet ....2) CNBC's Bill Griffeth, Tues., 10 am, at NASDAQ 3790 (already way down from 5100, right ?), said, "we are pre-empting other stories today....we want to keep you as informed as possible about the possible break in NASDAQ stocks".... Excuse me ? "Possible" break (down) ? seems already-broke-down, yes ? oy, he is Late again, as usual....the pattern rarely changes.... 3) then, at 10:15 am, he said, "longer-term, the bullish Tech. stock trend is still very much in place.... it would not become a bear market until prices fell much lower...." oy....do I have to comment on what my "PSYCLE sm" would say about what he said, coming only after the NASDAQ index had already fallen from 5100 to to 3700 ? ....4) and, amazingly, CNBC's Bob Pisani, 10:50 am, Tues., actually said, "we need to see much stronger downside volume, in the NASDAQ stocks, before we see a bottom...." and, of course, you know what happened, just 10 minutes later: a furious rally from 3650 to 4100 in the NASDAQ index....see ? the pattern never changes....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs.
illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:1) another perfect "PSYCLE sm" comment, a caller-in on CNBC, Tue., 7:50 am, a gal asked, "with Semiconductor stocks like VTSS so low, aren't they good buys ?" Seriously, "the 95 %" actually think like that....Exactly as I taught you in reviewing the characteristics of "PSYCLE sm" stage 5 and 6 in section (8) a few NL's ago, right ? gee, VTSS only down from 110 to 80, remains way UP from its 1999 low around $ 20, yes ? It is nowhere near 'low', and in fact, is still ridiculously 'high', isn't it ? another trader who has never seen a chart in her life.... 2) following-up on past-predicted Bagel-places tops-and-drops, and likely future Coffee-places impending tops ?, L.A. Times, 4/3, "Starbucks stocks cools off after ratings Cut", said 2 analysts just cut their earnings estimates forward....kudos to them, as it is rare that this happens right near an all-time stock high, yes ? So, let's see if SBUX stock forms a top here....
3) at least the L.A. Times, 4/4, echoed my first-predicted recent sentiments, with article, headline, "IPO's could suffer amid Tech. sell-off"....well, duh....saying, "could thwart companies' efforts to raise a planned $ 22 billion this month in offerings, a level that was already threatening to swamp investor demand....more than 150 companies are scheduled to go public in April, following last month's record of 161 firms...." Hey, waddaya know, a rare, correct predictive comment by the L.A. Times....The analyst interviewed said, "there's too much need for capital out there....the markets cannot continue to fund all the companies that went public last year, and the IPO's that are coming." Right on....That, plus the 'lock-up periods' (unable to sell until soon) ending soon, for many companies' stocks, from their IPO's last year, and there is definitely too much 'supply' coming on stream, dig ? This, on top of the record $ 77. billion in new equity, issued in the first quarter of this year already....last, just FYI, a recent study said that 'first-day IPO % stock-price pops', fell from avg. + 130 % in Feb., to avg. + 89 % in March, and even lower so far in April....of course, even a + 33 to 50 % one-day rise is truly exceptional, but people have become so jaded by past examples (re-read my "Psychology" booklet), they are due to be disappointed even with that....which explains how messed-up many traders' heads have become....but don't get me started....Last, Barron's recently cited study showing that, the arithmetic avg. of all new IPO's from 1999 were down (yes, they said, down) - 5 % from their first-day closing price (an issue I covered at length for you to learn, in an earlier NL), and IPO's in year 2000, were also down - 6 % on avg., from their 1st day closing prices.... surprise....and, that only about 40 % of the 228 Internet IPO's from 1999 were up from the OFFERING prices through 3/2/00 ! they also echoed that the gains in the IPO world are 'compressing', slowing, becoming lower....
4) L.A. Times, said, only on Tues. 4/4, did one analyst go constructive on our Kroger stock, which is already up from 14 to 20+, another example of how NO one else buys right near the lows, instead waiting until "things clarify/improve fundamentally", paying higher prices, when they could easily have bought near the lows with a stop anyway....see ? he is just starting to like it, and we are already taking big % calls Gains in section (3), as usual....looks like I was also, the first to give depressed Grocery stocks specifically to you herein as buys right near recent lows, just as everyone else dumped them, as EVB's, remember ? please re-read my "Media" and "Psychology" booklets.... 5) Thu., we saw one of our Puttables, PRGN, falling nicely, taking over one of our depressed stocks I gave as a buy much, much lower, lastyear, HRBC....neat....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:1) Mon., CNBC, 10:12 am, the Tiger Fund's Julian Robertson, actually said, "the small stocks are going to get eaten up by comptetitors...." Hmmmm, gee, two years ago all those 'small stocks' were much, much lower, and no one wanted them (including him), back then, right ? and/but, then, CONTRARY to what he incorrectly suggested, THOSE stocks did NOT get 'eaten up by competitors', and in fact, those were the very stocks which went parabolic, up, and are now considered 'the competition', yes ? Meanwhile, CNBC's David Faber, echoed my first-to-have-said//predicted concept, that, the very period when Mr. Robertson closes up shop, may turn out to have been, the top for extendeds, and the bottom area for depressed stocks....of course, Mr. Robertson still has $ billions, and I have much less....what's wrong with this picture ? I mean, why interview that guy now, when he has been incorrect so often, for a long time ? next.... 2) Tue., CNBC, 8:16 am, scowling Marty Cunningham, head trader at Schwab, said, "if we don't see much upside, we may be headed for a protracted downside period....we may see some sort of selloff, in the NASDAQ stocks"....Uh, excuse me ? Haven't those stocks BEEN in a decline ALREADY ? and, didn't many Techs already make V.S.T. bottoms, Tues., just as he 'began to warn people' ? the pattern rarely changes....yet another in an amazingly long line of useless, late comments from overpaid analysts, dig ? But, of course, CNBC chooses to expose such guys, vs. the people who actually predict future moves accurately so millions of people can profit.... 3) Tues., Carl Icahn formally offered $ 16. a share for "NGH" stock....gee, for just $ 300. to me, he would have, and could have, bought all the stock he wanted, around $ 9., getting NGH, and other Food stocks, from me, herein, yes ? Gee, that would make my advice worth, oh, BILLIONS of dollars to him, yes ? you should know, BTW, he did happen to buy several million shares under $9., but just a couple of percent of their shares o/s....but he could/should have bought a ton more down there....
4) as we continue to 'fade' Value Line, you should know among their latest lst of # 1 ranked favorites, as "timeliest stocks with highest price and earnings momentum", were, our, ADI, TER, KLAC, MNMD, SUNW, RNWK, RMD, XLNX, LSI, SDLI, TXN, MCRL, VSH, BGEN, IMNX, ADTN, CSGS, MACR, and TECH....they loved them right at their highs, and, of coruse, we recommended their puts then, herein for you.... gee, who won this round ? ....5) a boring psychologist on CNBC, Wed., 8:30 am, reiterated some of the nuances inherent in recent trader behaviors, which I have illuminated countless times herein, mainly, that tons of newbies have just been lucky, in recent years, and have learned nothing about patterns, have failed to control their ingrained 'guess' behaviors when making decisions, etc., and, therefore, are likely to not to be rewarded for much longer, etc. ...6) I did hear Bill Meehan, Cantor, Fitz. on CNBC, Tues., 10:22 am, say, regarding PE ratios being out of sight on Techs, "you are not going to have astronomical PE's, because you're not going to have any "E's" (earnings...." a rare good, true comment.... 7) an amazingly illogical, confusing guy, from Bowman Capital, Matthew Cowan, whose L.T. track record was Not given, Thu., on CNBC, 8:55 am, gave 4 (supposed) criteria for picking stock winners, said, "if a co. cannot make money by selling products to millions of people, their stock cannot do well"....uh, excuse me ? So, I guess all those IPO's and Internet and Biotech stocks did not rise tremendously, BEFORE (and often without) they sold much of anything to anybody, huh....
e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) did you know that Clorox Cp. makes Hidden Valley salad dressings ? ....2) Huh ? Bill Seidman, nice-guy-but-too-famous CNBC economist, ex-Fed guy, Thu., 8:25 am, said, "consumers are scared and they are not spending...." Uh, exactly where does that statement come from ? Gee, up until the last few days, every single source around has continued to trumpet huge, 'continuing forever' growth, spending, etc., yes ? ....3) just FYI, the new commercial for a very expensive (but good) stock-tracking-software product, "Window on Wall St.", pitches as a major benefit, "we'll even pay your non-professional exchange fees"....but, gee, those amount, at the most, to just $ 10-20/mo., which is something, but certainly Not a 'major benefit'....another misleading corporate pitch....so what else is new....
As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the
best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise,
mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media
messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just
getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to
even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info.,
anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically 'closed-out' trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and when you see "bal." here in section (3), that means, "the balance"
of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css"
means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:
a bunch (29) more quick, large % Puts Gains for you (plus 7 more Calls gains): read this list thoroughly, and VIEW their charts to 'see' and learn patterns:
bal. puts ITWO (177- to 85-) for Q 222% Gain....bal. puts HNCS (118+ to 65+) for VQ 250% G....all puts SFE (94 to 47-) for VQ 225% G....all puts TCNO (44+ to 27) for VVVVQ 200% G....1/2 pos. SCMM (125- to 80-) for Q % G....bal. puts ASML (144- to 98+) for Q 133% G....all puts NTIQ (76 to 47) for Q 133% G....all puts ALLR (90 to 39) for Q 166% G....bal. puts CSGS (66+ to 47+) for VQ 100% G....all puts KLIC (80- to 45) for VQ 175% G....all puts AMCC (149 to 97) for VVVVQ 125% G.... all puts LSI (85+ to 56+) for VQ 125% G....all puts HHH (189 to 130-) for VVVQ 135% G....all puts GNET (100- to 65) for 135% G....all puts CDN (23+ to 15) for VQ 150% G....1/2 pos. puts BRCD (172 to 110-) for VQ 150% G....all puts STM (218- to 140+) for VQ 133% G....all puts BRCM (242 to 160-) for VQ 133% G....puts HELX (74+ to 50+) for VQ 125% G....1/2 pos. puts TXN (181+ to 131) for VQ 125% G ....all calls KR (14+ to 20+) for VQ 125% G....all calls ARV (18+ to 24+) for Q 125% G....all stk.on.mgn. RBK (7+ to 13++) for 150% G....
more: all puts MACR (90- to 64) for VQ 100% G....1/2 pos. puts KLAC (90- to 68+) for VVQ 90% G....1/2 pos. puts TEK (68- to 49) for VQ 111% G....bal. css INFA (100- to 50+) for Q 90% G....1/2 pos. puts DQE (48 to 43) for Q 66% G....all puts SMTC (70 to 52) for Q 66% G....1/2 pos. css LINK (100- to 73+) for VVVVQ 55% G.... 1/2 pos. puts CHL (195 to 155) for Q 90% G....1/2 puts VO (64+ to 55+) for 90% G ....all puts NTLI. (104- to 84) for VQ 90% G....1/2 pos. puts LHSP (115 to 93) for VVVVQ 90% G....1/2 pos. calls CQ (16+ to 21) for VQ 111% G....1/2 pos. calls ATI (16+ to 20+) for 90% G....1/2 pos. calls URI. (14+ to 17-) for 85% G....
wow....that's 46 quick, large % puts gains, just in the last two NL's for you....
and/but, longs, FNT, LAN, FNV, AIM, BI., CKR, PTX, HELE ?, IEE ?, BMG ?, and, puts, AIG, AXA, GPS, for very quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
1/2 pos. ANF @ 14+, 1/2 pos. CTO @ 11+, 1/2 pos. HII. @ 5+, 1/2 pos. HPC @ 14 1/4, 1/2 pos. OMX @ 6-, 1/2 pos. RTHM @ 29+, 1/2 pos. SPLS @ 19, 1/2 pos. WMI. @ 13+, 1/2 pos. ZOOX @ 36+,
"Repeats": ASHW @ 4 1/8, ASL @ 2, AU @ 23+, AW @ 5++, BGO @ 5/8, BS @ 5 1/2, CAU @ 0.25, CCH @ 0.175, CONV @ 9-, CQB @ 4+, CSCQ @ 4 1/2, CTHR @ 6+, DAY @ 0.07, DNY @ 20+, ECO @ 1 3/8, EEE @ 1.06, EQR @ 39++, FC @ 7-, FCH @ 17, GGUY @ 4-, GRL @ 7+, HELE no ?, HET @ 17+, IEE no ?, IFSIA @ 4, IKN @ 6, JBM @ 2+, JDN @ 10+, LII. @ 9 ?, LMM @ 4-, MHX @ 15, NHR @ 8-, OHI. 6+, PBY @ 5++, PDX @ 7+, PIC @ 2++, PMC @ 8, PZB @ 16+, RDL @ 3, RPD @ 2+, RSG @ 11-, RTN/B @ 17++, SRE @ 16++, SRS @ 1.40, SSRI. @ 1 9/32, TEN @ 7+, TOK @ 3, TVX @ 0.75, URI. @ 14+, UVV @ 14+, VISX @ 16 1/4, WNC @ 14...."buy (only) low", right ? still, a nice long, growing list for you to choose from....you have (had) NO excuse for not catching these....you have had plenty of opportunity to do so...
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers
who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just
noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the
charts of the stocks herein, first, before acting....and there ARE subscribers
who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it
all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, TGLO, USL, AJX, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms ....or tops, for that matter....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
(new ones) 1/2 pos. CAM @ 69, SLB @ 82+, 1/2 pos. XLNX @ 85,
"Repeats": ADO @ 101+, BRCM @ 215, HWP @ 147+ ?, KLAC @ 88+ ?, MACR @ 90, NBR @ 39+, RYAAY @ 46....note, this is the shortest "puts" list shere, in a long time, dig ?
and/but, took, MNMD, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", YUM, FGH, UNP, MAT, HAS, MZ, GAP, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, PRGN (nice), IVIS, MPWR, ISSX, LSCC, VSH, PRGN, TMPW, DITC, NXTL, SDLI, EXAR, SSTI, CTSH, GMH, CBS, XLA, FCL, CLRS, AXP, GMH, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, you may catch ones, which I miss, herein....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
lots more pops: ZOOX 45 up 9 1/2, RBK 14 1/8 4 1/2 (S), TSA 3.06 up 0.80, MAH 12 7/8 up 2, RJR 20 3/4 up 3 1/8, RTN/B 21.81 up 3.06, KR 20 7/8 up 2 5/8 (S), WMI. 14 11/16 up 1 3/8, CMX 5 5/8 up 5/8, AW 7 3/16 up 13/16, HET 18 1/2 up 1 3/8, JCP 14 7/8 up 1, AU 25 up 1 3/8, FC 8 1/4 up 5/8, ARV 24 13/16 up 1 1/2 (S), CTO 12 1/8 up 7/8, DPH 15 1/8, 17 5/8, SHW 24.93 up 1.62, EFX 26 7/8 up 1, MO 23 9/16, ODP 12 9/16, CQ 21 3/8 (sos), EQR 41 5/8 up 1, PIC 3 1/4, MHX 17.93, GOU 4, TOM 14 7/8, GSB 15 7/8, HLT 8 11/16, BMC 6 1/8, SFI. 18 7/8, ATI. 20 11/16, MBG 17 5/8, UVV 17 1/4, HPC 15 5/8, MHX 17 7/8, FLO 15 1/2, LMT 22.06, DNY 21 3/8, NSI. 23, MGA 41.93, ASL 2 5/16, OCN 8 1/2, higher since last time here....and, CPC 20 13/16, still higher....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"still higher" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year, Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, but more bounces after pullbacks: CONV 12 1/4 up 3 5/8, OHI. 7 7/8 up 1 5/8, PDX 7.93 up 0.68, ASHW 4 13/16 up 13/16, CTHR 7 1/2 up 1 1/4, HRC 6 3/16 up 13/16, HUM 7 7/8, GSB 15 13/16, SFI. 18.44 up 1.44, HET 17 1/8, AU 23 5/16, LZB 17, DHI., SAH, MCK, VISX 16 1/8, 17, IFSIA, OHI., TMG 6, CQB 4.25, 4.93, HLT 7 3/4, RTHM 28 5/8, 33 1/2, GGUY 4-, ZOOX 41+, 44++, PIC 2 7/8, ASE 6.06, HRP 8, RPD 2, URI. 15 5/16, GY, SRE, KRY 2 1/2, WNC, AZC, TEN, ODP, OCN, SOC, AVL, TIE, NHR, HA, OH, IGL, TOK, IOM, TVX, GRL, MSN, WCC, DAY, BGO, VGZ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, get it ? those below must really strengthen or else....
Again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even/especially in Pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible & illogical, to
expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2 ....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) oh, and note this list has been shrinking lately, a tribute to the strength of our ideas, yes ? SRE 16 9/16, BMG 1 13/16, IOM 3 1/2, CGX, IFSIA, STEI, GRL, BGO, MHX, MSN, ASHW, LII, IEE, FTL, HELE, SRS, MHR, LMM, PMC, "golds"....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out:
AMCC -53, INFA -35 (css), GNET -36 (S), BRCD -9, +6, -37, BRCM -13, +9, -45 (S), TXN -35, LINK -33, LHSP -27, HHH +3, -38 (S), ALLR -26 (S), TCNO -18 (S), MACR -17 (S), NTIQ -20 (S), SFE -20 (S), STM -26 (S), KLIC -17 (S), CHL -16, KLAC -15, ITWO -14 (S), RMD -13 pre-split (sow), HELX -10 1/2 (S), ADI. -10,
still more: SLB -9 1/2, SMTC -9 (S), SCMM -8 1/2, NTLI. -8 (S), HNCS -6 (S), CAM -6, LSI. -6 (S), CDN -5 (S), XLNX -5, WON -4, TEK -5, ASML -2 (S), CSGS -2 (S), NBR +1, -4, PME, DQE -2, VO -2, BRW -2, +1, -2, lower since last time here....
More Learning Notes: while, BRCM, INCY, INFA, MEDX, TCNO, HNCS, KLIC, HLIT, fell right to their 200 DMA, and, TXN, AMCC, SFE, fell to their 50 DMA, and, ADI, TEK, CHL, LSI, RMD, BRCD, LINK, LHSP, fell below their 50 DMA, and, ALLR, CDN, GNET, fell below their 200 DMA, and, SMTC, MACR, VIGN, ITWO, DQE, HELX, NTLI, approached their 200 DMA....and, VRTS, down even further, to 98+....and, CHL, KLAC, AMCC, VO, fell to their 'neckline'....again, take the time to View these stocks, to learn the patterns !
Note: these 'points changes moves' have always been listed, by
"number of points falling -, or, rising +", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously bought long puts On next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these
are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so please have
some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
BRCD +20, -13, BRCM +35, -7, AMCC +32, VO -2, ADO +15, ENT, RYAAY -2, LHSP +18, TEK +8, KLAC +19, HWP +8, -9, +17, -2, ADI. +13, CHL +10, WON +5 1/2, SCMM +6, HELX +5, CAM +3 1/2, TXN +16, DQE +1, LINK, AMCC....
obviously, we got plenty of furious bounces off "after the first hour or two lows", Tuesday, as expected, right ? things are going to be volatile and jockeying here, as some stocks find S.T. support, and others bounce....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also,
remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which
are still near their lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan",
one should probably not do the real cheapies, etc.
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (RAD, HRC, CMX, PDX, MCK, HS, VISX, BSX, STEI. ?, HELE ?, HMSY)
Prec. Metals (BGO, ECO, DAY, CCH, SSRI, etc., longer-term, and still watching the others as well)
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (EQR, FCH, HRP, SRE, MHX, HCN, SFI, KPA, NHR, NHI., KRC, PAG, BPP, BTR, ALI., JDN, etc.)
Retails/Apparel (ASHW, HMY, RDL, TSA, RBK, RML, PTX, etc., and, from Value LIne, IFSIA ?, WWW, KWD, TOM, PTX, KM, RBK, longer-term)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (MHX, WNC, BNI, GT, GY, AVL, CNI, DHI., TEN, DPH, PBY, CFWY, ARV, MGA, HA, URI, etc.)
* plus, adding some "Leisure" names, to, Computer Memory/Storage, R.E.-and Mtg.-relateds, "Housing-related", Financial/Banks, Gaming (MGB, HLT, HET), Waste, Funeral, stocks, down the road....and, longer-term, most Food (RJR, MO, FLO, CAG, IHF), Grocery (DZA, KR, ABS, GAP), Steel (BIR, LTV, BS), Cap. Goods, Aero./Def. (RTN/B, LMT, HXL, LOR), Energy (EEE, HEC, TSO, SWN, GOU, TRP), Office Retail (ODP, OMX, SPLS, IKN), still a.o.k.
and, ahead at some point, Toys, most Cyclicals, Chem. stocks, as well....and, Tobaccos (UVV, MO, RJR, BTI, LTR), Airlines, Utilities (SRE, PCG, NSI), 'Correction', Industries....
Remembering ONLY to buy near their recent Lows (do not "pay up" much off lows), diversified, w/close stops....these, plus the stocks listed just above/below, and the "Newly Boughts" in Section (3) above, comprise the "total" complete long-side buyable lists in today's market....note, the vast majority of stocks are "repeats" each issue....if you just view "some" each day, in a few days, you will have seen all of them, and culled the best-looking ones, saving you much time and effort, yes ? it's up to you....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order,
"watching" list: note, is growing, yes ? but most have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, yes ?
added, PMTC, FF, SPLS, ZOOX, SOI, UNP, GGUY, GAP, HXL, PZB, TRP, CEN, FNV, AKS, HET, JCP, HII, BID, TIN, CHD, FWC, HNP, TCC, MLG, AIR, CTO, FTN, FO, FMO, HPC, to, DNY, YUM, ASN, AU, DURA, GLH, MZ, UCL, TCC, WXS, WAC, BDG, GON, HSM, HUG, IMR, CEN, FC, HPT, MAG, MAT, RTHM, AJX, GLC, CSX, IGL, ODP, SVM, ECP, FTL, FJ, SUT, KEY, RSG, TVX, BWL/A, RDL, XCL, ASE, AW, IKN, MDC, MPH, OMX, BMC, BDN, FMT, BGC, SRS, LII. ?, ASL, DROOY, WMI, AIN, SAH, TIE, IO, SGI, AN, LUB, TEI, OMI, CHKE, GSR, JBM ?, JDN, CGX ?, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns... .don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
The last list, was/is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They
normally only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have just a few minutes....How else are you going to
learn the patterns ? This is a positive benefit for you, not a negative....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
obviously, this list will have Shrunken a lot, by Thursday, as many Techs are already falling, right ? so, caught a whole bunch for you, while just missing some from last NL here....so I am removing all those which already fell to their still-rising 50-DMA's....even though some of them might become puttable again on further strength, as per my "booklet"....
* add, to, BRCM, KLAC, NXTL, ORTL, LINK, ISSX, XLNX, NBR, CMOS, AMT, CBS, SLB, CAM, most "webs" foreign index securities, RYAAY, GMH, ETA, VO, WON, STM, SSTI, from recent past NL's, note MUCH smaller list !
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least Semi-parabolic: add, Energy Services again, to, Enterprise/software, Electronics- specialty instruments, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, High-PE Techs, and most all Tele.-Commun., Foreign and Telecom, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....
NEW: Gosh, what I am about to tell you is truly valuable....and a new 'technical PSYCLE sm" nuance....if you don't learn this, too, you have no excuse: many NASDAQ previously-parabolics, may do nothing more, than have 'stage-5-or-6 cursory bounces off V.S.T. oversold levels", up to their now-above-current-stock-price, 50-day MA's -- and then renew their declines, dig ? stocks like, BRCM, BRCD, ADI, TEK, semis, biotechs, etc. So, watch for this to possibly unfold the next few weeks....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....