Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, ended formally, back in early April 2000, with issue # 207+, a while ago....(so/but this NL is Not really being actually published formally, publically, any more, and has not been, for quite a while now ....I just wanted a place to keep track of what I would have said and done and felt, since I was forced undeservedly to stop my NL, months ago....this is ONLY for my own edification and proof of the value of my output and concepts to others), and anyone reading this has NOT gotten it from me....
dated: 9:30 am, PST, Tuesday, April 10, 2001


"2001: a Trading Odessey"

or, "The Patterns Rarely Change"

Important Note: this serious, very valuable "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, due to the too-often at least semi-gestapo, uncaring, ridiculous, illogical, NASD/SEC rules, and the uncaring, inconsiderate, and thoughtless nature of most all brokerage firms....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, here, twice each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance, very-long-term track record, and to offer further significant, in-advance, in-writing, 'proof' of the value and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

See how staying with the "PSYCLE sm" pays off ? Already you have more new S.T. Gains longside, ay ? glad you bought more ideas Very Recently....with our expected quick rally coming from seemingly 'no-news-ed out of nowhere', as expected....we are even seeing stocks of warning companies popping, as you have been taught to expect S.T.early Thu., A/D was 4/1 NASDAQ, and NYSE was 3/1, ratios, best in a long time....as usual, the pundits will doubt this all the way up, till we reach initial upside resistance levels...with fits-and-starts along the way, also expected, providing us with many good Buying points....and they will, as usual, get in late....

So, our adding many new Longs last NL here was correct, a good sign.... remember, 'missing' or getting whipsawed of having 'fobd's' is part of the process - the key is to keep buying near lows, with stops, for the initial big % pops that, as I also said recently, occur off bottoms, the quickest/easiest gains when gettable....and, as i said only recently, many people are gonna kick themselves for not having bought many issues near recent lows....and, once again, I am upset and frustrated a bit, at my people not having bought big recently....I wil not stop trying to help....

and all day Thu., all I heard were people asking, "do you believe this rally will last ?", to which, as usual, I answer, while 'the 95%' keep asking, WE are making money again, yes ? add these probable new gains longide, to the dozens of Put Gains gave out herein, balanced by a small number of recent clunkers longside (as everyone out there has as well, worse than we have anyway)....worst case from here ? the recent lows become the left-head of a H & S bottom.... Best case ? the EVB's never look back, for a long time....pretty-good odds, either way, yes ? and, I am giving out still more even newer Puts that are working out, neat, split market again....

Last, as usual, while 'the 95%' still await 'further Fed moves', they will miss most initial rises, as you have been taught....which is already happening to an extent....and, the opposite way no one would buy all my excellent Puts all the way down over months, I hope people do not fail to buy my Longs from lows the balance of this year....

the pattern rarely changes: how anyone could have thought that last Thursday's pops would continue forever like that, just proves my concepts even more....meanwhile, some indexes show "W" formations with the right side slightly higher thanthe left, not bad, so far....and, as I mentioned herein , the "10-day A/D Osc." did indeed bottom where all previous ovsld. areas existed in recent past bottoms, good....and, therefore, note the plethora of new longsiders in section (3) and (6) below - and, some new puttables section (3) and (7) below, as well, nice....ACT !

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) another useless analyst on CNBC, Thu. 9:30, said, "where can an investor go now for low-risk investments ? US Treasuries, GIC's, annuities, fixed-income insurance contracts, etc." Hmmm, has he not viewed their historical record ? don't get me started....hey, guy, try buying near lows, stocks in good patterns, diversified, with close stops, and occasional puts....but, that will never happen, ay ? ....2) I was, as usual, the first/only guy to have given out, twice now, perfect, first, long, then short, signals, on EIX and PCG, recently, herein, for you....neat....learning the pattern ? ...3) and, as usual, I was the first/only to give out depressed Semi. stocks as Buys recently for you - are you in those nicely volatile ideas ? if not, why not ? ....4) and, exactly as only I suggested recently, the Techs. rising money, is coming out of other I.G.'s in rotation, normal, usual, no biggie - then why do so few other people know of this rotation that has been occuring for decades ? dont' get me started....

3) as I.G.R. becomes clearer again, we see nicely split market growing, with, for instance, extended, Financial, Utility, Health-related, Insur., Bank, Mtg., Housing, Tobacco, Energy, still looking toppy rolling over ?, so section (7) puttables llist growing a bit again, dig ? ....4) as only I figured recently, the moment the European market indexes were overrreported super negatively by the Media, has seen decent rallies there since....the pattern rarely changes....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) morew good news: late Wed., MER downgraded the Semis/Chips - right at their lows....we shall see....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) idiots - all the CNBC'ers Thu. after initial pops, saying, "with Tech. cp.'s profits likely to remain lower for a while, do not expect any decent rises in those stocks any time soon", dig ? interesting, since, they all LOVED those stocks at tops, never warned of parabolas, nor non-existent 'profits' back then, right ? and, 'if' they are supposedly 'linking' that way (re-read my booklets) now, then, if those stocks rose 1997-98-99 with no profits/sales, why cannot they at least bounce nicely from normal oversold condition, now ? I rest my case....exactly as I was first/only to have prediucted herein, Fri., CNBC said that the SEC's new (and ridiculous) 'reg. rule FD' (fair disclosure - an oxymoron if I ever heard one), is having the opposite (PSYCLE, yes ?) effect - that is, that tons of companies, instead of dealing with announcements, etc., are just NOT saying enough of anything for iinvestors' supposed benefit if so, dig ? What asystem, ay ? people get creamed again, yes ? so what else is new....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) Fri., I got more confirmation from Joe Dinapoli, of an impending S.T. bottom in NASDAQ regardless....so far, he and I are among the very first few to say this Tuesday or so....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1)

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....

"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:

all puts EIX (15 to 7+) for Q 175% G....all puts PCG (14+ to 7+) for Q 155% G.... bal. puts RCII. (46 to 34+) for VVQ 100% G....bal. puts CEFT (48+ to 38+) for Q 100% G....1/2 pos. calls BMC (19+ to 24+) for VVVQ 100% G....1/2 pos. puts BMET (41 to 36) for VQ 50% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. FUN (18 to 21) for 30% G....

and/but, longs, BSRTS, SONE ?, MOT, TRMB, SFE, FBR ?, X ?, CAS ? (a few were immediate), and, puts, PPL, PIR, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:

(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs):
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:

(most are repeats from last time here) 1/2 pos. AMKR @ 15+, 1/2 pos. APCC @ 11+, APCS @ 10, 1/2 pos. ARI. @ 23+, 1/2 pos. ASYT @ 11 1/8, 1/2 pos. BBOX @ 41+, BCGI. @ 6 1/2, 1/3 pos. BELM @ 7+, BMC @ 19, BOW @ 45-, 1/3 pos. CCK @ 3 1/2, 1/2 pos. CS @ 11, 1/3 pos. CSCO @ 13++, CTC @ 12++, 1/2 pos. CTV @ 15+, 1/2 pos. EGLS @ 14+, 1/2 pos. FNV @ 1.5, 1/3 pos. GRL @ 8++, 1/2 pos. INTI. @ 5, 1/2 pos. JBL @ 19+, KEM @ 16+, 1/2 pos. KFY @ 15+, 1/2 pos. LSCC @ 17+, LTD @ 15+, MLT @ 7, 1/2 pos. N @ 14++, PGO @ 8+, 1/2 pos. PLUG @ 13 1/8, 1/2 pos. PMTC @ 8+, 1/3 pos. PROX @ 9, 1/3 pos. SCI. @ 16+, 1/2 pos. TCC @ 11, 1/3 pos. TSM @ 17, TSTN no ?, 1/2 pos. TV @ 33+, 1/2 pos. UFI. @ 6+, 1/2 pos. VOXX @ 7+, ZRAN @ 14+,

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): ASML @ 19, AWE @ 17, BCU @ 5/8, BGO @ 0.405, CAS ?, CBJ @ 1/4, CCRT @ 7+, CGO @ 26, CTHR @ 0.85, FON @ 20+, GAB @ 10, HNV @ 1/4, IN @ 5+, IOM @ 3+, KRY @ 3/4, MERX @ 11+, MGM @ 16-, PPE @ 10-, PRSF @ 6 1/8, ROS @ 5-, SAWS @ 15, TMCS @ 7 1/8, VGZ @ 0.08...."buy (only) low", right ?

** Important: took, CA, CY, ET, HRS, BRW, PRGS, AMSC, GRL, TSTN, GRA, BRIO, UTSI, JRC, ENTU, MSO, HIFN, CLTK, LENS, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.".... we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops:
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): ASFC @ 55, 1/2 pos. CHG @ 44+, 1/2 pos. CPT @ 33, 1/2 pos. GTK @ 28, KMP @ 63-, MTB @ 70, 1/2 pos. MTG @ 68++, 1/2 pos. ORI. @ 29-, 1/2 pos. PNW @ 47+, 1/2 pos. SLM @ 75, SOTR @ 47-, 1/2 pos. THC @ 46+, TJX @ 33, 1/2 pos. UVV @ 39+, WSC @ 306+,

"Repeats": ATVI. @ 25-, CNT @ 47+, GCO @ 26++, HSIC @ 34+, JNY @ 39, KPP @ 34+, PBG @ ,

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", FCTR, GOTO, PRGN, DT, ELNT, GLGC, MAXY, QLGC, QSFT, AHAA, RSAS, VOD, HOMS, ATMI, INFS, RWY, TEO, PCS, NEM, IFX, MHP, ABSC, SCI, NSM, AVX, LPTH, APCS, PKI, BLDP, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CCE, DUK, ICCI, BRK.B, PNW, WWY, FTN, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs.... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):

**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).



acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn the pattern, more:
still more nice Gains for you, all through recent travails, ay ? : are you in enif ?
(read these thoroughly) ZRAN 16 1/4 up 1 3/4, PRSF 7 1/2 up 1 1/2, DCLK 12 3/8 up 1 7/8, JBL 23.44 up 4+, BMC 24.6 up 5.6, JBL 25 up 3 1/2, APCC 13.60 up 2.60, CS 13.3 up 2.5, CCK 3.95 up 0.45, LPTH 11.81 up 1.81, DD 44.3 up 1.7, MLT 7 3/4 up 3/4, TMCS 8.68 up 0.68, RNWK 8.15 up 0.78, PMTC 9.94 up 1.66, PLUG 15.08 up 1.90, PROX 10.44 up 1.55, LTD 16.4 up 1.4, VRTA 12.8 up 1.4, SCI. 19 up 2.57, CTC 13.38 up 1, TSM 18 up 1 1/8, APCS 10.93 up 1, AWE 19.27 up 1.45, AMKR 16.75 up 1.60, CGO 28.3 up 2.5, ASYT 12.8 up 1.8, TV 38.1 up 5, BMC 25.3 up 1.8, LSCC 18.48 up 1.48, EGLS 15 1/2 up 1 1/4, BBOX 45.3 up 4.3, KEM 17 1/2 up 1 1/4, VOXX 8 1/4 up 1, BOW 46.8 up 2.4, CC 12.8, IN 7.13, UFI. 6.65, N. 15.6, CTV 16.09, higher since last NL here....

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and more bounces after pullbacks:
ASML 19+, 22+, 21, 22 3/8, MERX 12.93 up 1.75, KNT 18 up 2, SNBC, CTHR, KRY, RCG, CAS, HA, SVRN, PRSF 7, 7.45, HNV, GAB, VRA, BCU, HPOW 6.68, 7.37, PRSF 6.43, FON 20.6 (B), 22.7, MT, STTX, VGZ 0.08, INFA, TG, MGM 17.1....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....


and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:


(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) ASML, IOM, LNUX, CCRT, PAP, SNBC, CTHR, DCLK, INSP, KANA, ARI, TMCS 7, SAWS 15,, BCGI. 6.5, STG....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:

(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, stick around:

Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out to learn:
PCG -4 1/2 (S), SLM -3 1/2, KMP -3, SOTR -2 1/2, RCII. -2 (S), EIX -4 (S), ADM, PCG -2, BMET -2, MTB -2, RL -1 1/2, UVV -1 1/2, CHG -1 1/4, THC -1 1/2, GTK -1 3/8, HI. -1 1/2, PNW -1, MTG -1, PBG, CPT, GIS, WSC -10, lower since last NL here....and, HUM 8 1/2, even lower still....and, BMET, CEFT, fell to its 200 DMA....

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):

: LNCR +1 1/2, -2, MNI, CNT, EXC +1, HSIC, RL, ATVI, AEP, KMP +1, GTK....this ends our 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):


these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (FRT, HCN, TCC, ARI, ARJ, TCO, JPR, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (CAS (also nice pot. div.), CBJ, KRY, STTX, KGC, etc.)
depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, Golds, STEEL, and most Chem., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Papers, Apparel, Regional Banks/Finls.

*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, emi., comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):

We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not broken down, nor popped up too much recently, already, before you buy, as I Removed a bunch already-up's, and broken-down's from last NL list here...always check current price to see they have not broken between publication and when you view them) added, BMC, CS, DT, IBI, JBL, KMT ?, LTD, N, LSCC, JDAS ?, HOMS, GLGC, BELM ?!, BCGI, ALSC ?, APCC, UFI., NZT, KFY, MPS ?, MLT, MAXY, LPTH, PPE, CSCO, CSC, JCCK ?, BKI, MBK, CGO, ARI, AVX, VOD ?, TSM, TER ?, SCI, IDTI. no, to, PWER, CC, AWE, MGM, ASML, PLUG, TMCS ?, X. no, NCX, CTC, PRGN, DCLK ?, VRTA, IOM ?, RNWK, SONE ?, NOPT ?, HPOW, IN, DITC, CTHR, CBR, MPH, STLD, BS, GSPN, TG, ZRAN, PDG, SVRN, AU, CRDS, FNV, CCRT, CAS, KGC, RCG, KNT, BLDP, HLIT ?, PRSF, NTOP ?, NMSS, NTRO no ?, ASYT, MWBX, TRAC, SNE, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns.... don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, as all others have been Removed:

* add, FTN, CHG, THC, MTB, HCA, ORI, PNW, RJR, SLM, UNP, UVV, WSC, RE, PB, DEO, GVA, KMP, GTK, CHD, CBL, ABM, CPT, JOE ?, WWY, HOTT, ICCI, PHCC, RESP, KNGT, to, SGR, CF, ITG, SPH, UNH, TFX ?, ASFC, BSYS, CHIC, COCO, CHTR ?, WCNX ?, APOL, ATVI, SOTR, HSIC, KPP, ASBC, GCO, JNY, SNV, SSP, SKE, JCI, PBG, LNCR, IVGN, CV, EXC, WAG, ALSI, EXPD, PPDI, DUK, TJX, MET, PX, PNC, BRO, CYTC, CNT, INSUA, CMH, MNI., DHI, from recent past NL's....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services (but some are already down, yes ?), Commercial Services, Tobacco, Trans., Enterprise/software, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Fuel Cell, Homes-related/bldg., Computer/Internet/Software/Services, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES