1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
*** Note I have a new, valuable, complete "Lesson" in sec. (8) below, worth THOUSANDS of dollars more to you, the rest of your trading life....and today's "longest ever" sec. (2) is a must-read....remember, I will reward YOU, for multiple, paid referrals, if you know of other nice, worthy people whom you think highly enough of, to suggest they also receive my output, please let themn, and me, know....thanks....
Also, Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL
applicable, staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable,
"PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever
I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of,
for YOUR educational/trading benefit....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And note, the "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in sections (2). Longer
lists and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7)....and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). If you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you can chosse to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage.
Obviously, if "YOU" choose not to want certain types of stocks/plays, like real cheapies, or Puts, etc., or YOU choose not to learn how to do certain things better, it is your choice to do so, but realize, that other valued subscribers DO want them. You have to weigh, your time, against the significant value of learning my patterns of lifetime benefit. There ARE more than a few subscribers who are even successfully trading some of the stocks I 'miss' herein, because THEY are VIEWING the charts....'nuff said.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?): 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today: (I forgot to put this in last NL....see what happens when everybody demands everything, many different ways, from me, all the time, yet many won't take the time to study and learn the patterns ?)
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) WSJ, 4/8, headline, "Gas Futures Fall on Inventory Data": with the largest one-day drop, since last Dec. '98....evidently, the "latecomer bulls" expected a bigger drop in inventories (supplies), and higher demand, dig ? wrong....(quote) "took the wind out of our sails"....Remember, as predicted here first, prices had already risen about +60 to 70 % in just 2 months or so....LESSON: buy BEFORE any inkling of "better news", and sell into S.T. parabolic rise, towards previous resistance in stage 1 or 2.... 2) note further rises in Basic Metals (steel, copper, alum., etc.) as I was, again, the first/only to give out here near their lows....I never argue with a good chart pattern.... 3) note the rare breakdown-after-a-breakout in Coffee futures, and Sugar, to new lows, two Q,S losses....surprising....and/but Gold higher lately, and Silver still moving towards double-bottom.... 4) note, D.J. Trans. -35, Mon. 12th., and another -40, Tue., then +145, +92, potential breakout, Wed./Thu. ? we do not fight the tape....note I added more depressed Truck and Rails, as per the "broadening out/catch-up" concept, taught you, re-read, in my "Ind. Grp. Rotation" Booklet ...regardless, the DJ Trans. Avg. still has a resistance high above, around 3,650 from March 1998, remember....so this may still, just be a fakeout-breakout, S.T. ....5) and, the U.S. Dollar still looks like a potential rolling top.... 6) also note pops among our Steels, Papers, Health-relateds, REIT's, Staffing/Employment, Agri./Chem., Techs, stocks, all which I was the first/only to give near lows herein.... 7) and the drops in some of the extended Biotechs and Internets I gave you recently (I was first/only, with Biotechs, for you)....into "earnings that are beating estimates", get it ? ....8) but the drop Wed. in Utils. was a bit surprising, though, if the DJ. Utility Avg. holds recent lows, around 291. or so, should still be aok....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, or improper comments from the Financial
Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) I previously mentioned the lousy "yellow" charts, CNBC is now using....now, Mon. 12th, I see CNBC using miselading/useless, one-day, "intraday" charts on active movers....this is another "sentiment" thing, which should presage a S.T. top....regardless, more dumb Media behavior, showing NO proper perspective, yes ? we know why, right ? ....2) CNBC's David Faber, 4/12, 12;15 pm, highlighted a new I.G, he called, "Bandwidth Beauties", for the first time, as (quote) "newly super-bullish....people are in love with bandwidth....why wouldn't you like these stocks here ?" Famous, very, very late stage 3, parabolic, last words ? He mentioned: WCOM, GBLX, LVLT, FRO, WMB, QWST, PSIX.... we shall see.... 3) gal Kathleen , CNBC reporter, Tues. 13th, 9 am, actually said, "national retail sales figures for March were higher than expected....people must have done their Passover and Easter shopping earlier and more than usual." Excuse me ? "Passover shopping ?" isn't that reaching for a story/reason a bit ? Don't get me started....amazing, huh.... 4) Thu., CNBC, "O'Brien/Bauman, 9:45 am, finally brought up coming Star Wars movie, relative to "toy" stocks....gee, took them long enough....I gave you TOY at 14, now 20, right at its recent S.T. low, herein, yes ? Why didn't ANYONE else mention the toy stocks back then at their lows ? Because that's how "the PSYCLE sm" works ! Try this test: what industry groups, which have Not yet risen off their depressed lows, are still getting panned fundamentally by "the 95 %" ?
4) CNBC's Bob Pisani., Wed. 13th, 8:58 am, highlighting the Paper stocks (late, as usual, right ?), said, "I remember 3-4- months ago, we reported that everyone was scared that continuing lower Asian demand would hurt these companies....if we get a recovery in pulp prices, these stocks could begin to rise...." HUH ? I was the first/only to add these near their lows, for you herein, INTO the "assumed worse fundamentals" (as usual), and, hey, Bob, these stocks are ALREADY up, in perfect "PSYCLE sm" stage 2 action, yes ? He also said, Thu., 8:50 am, "stocks NOBODY wanted months ago, are now making new highs" ...."NOBODY" ? WE did....Jerk.... 5) CNBC's Bob Pisani. (again), Wed., 14th, 8:05 am, highlighted Latin Amer. stocks ---also late, as usual, right ? He, and most all others but Me, also hated These stocks near their lows, last summer, yes ? He showed chart of "TV", a stock I gave you herein around 16., now 38., and others similarly way up already, as 'newly attractive'....He actually said, "who would want to own a Brazilian Bank ?" Answer: anyone with a brain, knowing "PSYCLE sm" patterns, last summer.... 6) last, Wed. 13th, 9:05 am, CNBC reporter guy mentioned new high in "MOT", saying, "this company, given up for dead last year on Asian chip fears, is very much alive...." See ? The pattern never changes. These are all, normal "late stage 2" I.G.'s....By the time improvements are reported, their stocks are already way up....Hint: guess what is likely to happen with "Disk Drive/Memory" stocks down the road ? Yup....by the time CNBC reports "less bad stuff", their STOCK prices are likely to be higher, already....
7) ergo: L.A. Times, 4/13, "Many Disk Makers Have Lost Their Drive": get it ? a Media attempt to "pun" (normal, re-read my "Media" and Scenarios" booklets), near the lows, dig ? Mentioned therein, was that KMAG, RDRT, WDC's losses, still beat Wall Street's estimates....and, that, they are close to profits in the year ahead due to their technology changes....Have you not learned how/when to buy depresseds yet ? ....8) on CNBC, Thu. 15th, 8:20 am, Bill Seidman, a guy I actually do respect, surprisingly said, "I predict that the Bank stocks are going to come back".... hmmm, gee, haven't they ALREADY "come back" ? I mean, they are all ALREADY way up 50-100 % and more, since last summer, when "the 95 %" were unanimously afraid of "Asian woes", yes ? therefore, watch for end of their rises ahead....They are always telling us that things "will" happen, that have Already happened....the pattern never changes.... 8) all day Wed., Media mentioned "tons of money supposedly going into IRA's and pension Plans, as a "supposed reason" (re-read my "Scenarios" booklet section) for more strength from here....But, of course, intelligent, logical people who actually know historical things, know that very little of any such newly added mutual fund monies actually goes into stocks immediately....if anything, Funds tend to step back, reassess, first, after getting such infusions....This country and industry simply must do a better job of educating women in investing/trading, equally to men....I am doing my best to help, but, of course, no one in the Media is giving me proper exposure, but I digress....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.:
1) Barron's, 3/29, fundamental article by Jackie Doherty, pointing out that, in fact, 'earnings estimates' for the Dow and S & P, have NOT risen, since March 1998, yet many of their "stocks", of course, are up....All due, in her words, to "multiple expansion" (higher PE's)....True....She pointed out, that the earnings within the Dow, FELL -2 % last year....Of course, the Dow has few of the super-techs in it, and more cyclicals, stocks in it....Anyway, she was somewhat warning of overvaluation....also correct....see, I wish fundamentalists knew technicals, because then we could get definitive opinions, but I wanted you to know here's more proof that much of the rises since last March 1998, is primarily fluff and hope.... 2) this one is hilarious (sarcastic): Barron's, 4/5, article "Coke is No Longer It", first, points out, that Barron's arugued 5 years ago, that "KO" was losing fundamental attractiveness (5/9/94 issue, "Has Coke Lost its Fizz ?"), and was a sale at that time....Well, since their super-sell signal, "KO" stock ROSE, + 345 % to last summer's high.... So they were very wrong, period.... Second, then, they spent the rest of the article wasting time and space, rationalizing their miscue....Third, at the end, they actually said, "we may have been early on this one, but we weren't wrong." huh ? Unusual for such a publication to be so insecure....they WERE wrong.... 3) Avon Cp. pres., on CNBC, Tue. 13th, 9:20 am, said, their Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Asia, business is improving, off lows....of course, he says this, only AFTER "AVP" stock is already up + 100 % off lows, when, BTW, all the "experts" warned that their business would remain negative 'for the forseeable future', due to 'continuing Asian woes', right ? more late stage 2 behavior....the pattern never changes....they never interviewed him at the lows, probably beause they had another co. pres. on, whose stock had also, already risen a lot already....
4) given I did give out "PAIR" chart-wise, but just missed it, be reminded that "DGN" remains a similarly viable L.T. takeover target, attractive also near $ 10., technically, closestop below....but NO guarantees.... 5) Tue. 13th, 10 am, Robertson-Stephens, came out with a "fundamental" N.A.V. on "CMGI.", (a pseudo-internet-stock-mutual-fund) with its stock at $ 310., with their best case value of only $ 163., 3 years out, and current "N.A.V. of stocks the co. owns", of only $ 39....right on....caveat emptor, Internet buyers/holders....probably a top for this one also ? ....6) I hate fundamentals, but, as I taught you, "sometimes" they do matter: Tue. 13th, CNBC carried story of a company beginning to do "corneal implants" as alternative to "laser surgery" on eyes....As "Lasik" (VISX) displaced RK ("BEAM", Summit Tech.), might this spell the final topping area for "VISX" and its parabolic rise ? note, Thu., they beat earnings estimates, yet stock falls....get it ? ....7) as I suggested in a recent NL here: Thu., saw a trading halt in "PFE", as they announced sales of Viagra have slowed....perfect stage 4 behavior, yes ? opened down 16 ?
d) more, late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) Mon. late, CNBC guy, said, that Jerry (overrated/overexposed) Favors called for yet another Top, last week....he had been wrong for months, as you know....hey, even a broken clock is right twice a day (and other such cliches).... 2) the "Goldstock NL" (whose real, L.T. track record I know not) uses only TIME cycles (don't get me started), but is calling for an 80 and 40 and 20 and 10-month Confluence of cycle bottoms for Gold, and the XAU index, between August, and Oct./Nov. 1999....we shall see....I already gave you NEM and ASA at S.T. bottoms herein.... 3) is this good or bad ? Jim Dines has also begun to get real bullish L.T. on Gold....though he has made plenty of big mistakes over the years, he is the only NL guy, to actually call, and stay in for, the unbelieveable rise in the Internets (though, note, again, he remains super-bullish still, from even up here)....as I remember, he didn't get out of the Golds early 1980/81 top, either, but I will try to check on that....BUT--- in that same NL, he still says all the natural resources sectors are all still bearish, saying 'at some point' they will be buyable, but gave no timing or specifics yet....which is weird....Since I gave them out at lows, and he already missed some nice rises in them....Last, like me, he also acknowledges that true "deflation" would have LOWER money supply growth at its core....But, the last 2-3-years, our Money Supply (and that of other nations) has been RISING, a lot, historically....See why I hate most fundamentals ?
4) Thomas Henning, from the Bull & Bear newspaper, 3/99, interestingly equated "wild, (over)super-short-term-daytrading computer places" today, with the "stock trading bucketshops" of the late 1920's....neat....Gosh, wish I had said this first....Anyway, there is a potential parallel worth thinking about, since it is logical and normal, that tons of those people doing it now, have to get blown-away up ahead....He called such compulsive, needy behavior, a "fatal tendency", which is another nice term, PSY-chologically....Over-trading, over-margined, on such thin margins, for both the traders and the brokerage firms involved, is bearish he says....I agree....But, of course, he has already been super-bearish for a while now, showing a 20-year parabolic-for-years-already Elliott Wave chart of the Dow....Don't get me started on how EW people have been thinking every top since 1987, was "the" "it" top, changing, higher, each time, ad infinitum....But his "bucketshop" parallel does make sense....He also mentioned my potential "17-year stock cycle reversal/problem" ahead....I will try to contact him directly....His bottom line: there is no way that millions of daytraders can all end up keeping their winnings in the game....or even 50 % of them....The vast majority must lose, or begin to lose, mainly because they don't stop losses when they begin to lose (maybe soon ?)....See, last Summer, many daytraders got whacked in that drop, but many more just began to trade in recent months, after that drop....and they have not gotten whacked yet....gotta happen....What do YOU think ?
5) Oppenheimer, just now, Tue. 13th, added the Internet Broker stocks as "new buys", way, way, way up here....Knight-Trimark, E-trade, Schwab, etc.....now ? IN Terminal parabolic rises ? I don't think so....so I'll fade them.... 6) Joe Granville, on KWHY-tv, Tue. 13th, 11:50 am, says his market internal numbers and indicators, now, are "exactly the same as in Aug. 1929", and he remains super-bearish, but also so, since last Nov. '98....He still uses mostly A/D and Volume measures, which, as you know, have not really worked that well, especially for the quality stocks, for 2-3 years now....And he did Not say to avoid the secondary stocks that have been so underperforming for so long, along the way.... But--- even if he is finally correct S.T. ahead (a semi- broken clock ?), and he sees 8,000 or so Dow, by the end of June, he simultaneously says, he is NOT, and has not been, even mildly bullish on the depressed stocks (as we have been from recent lows), now, recently past, or in the future....he also hinted at a big rally from the lows end of June, but would not elaborate.... 6) if you didn't hear Abbey Cohen's "sermon" Wed., she said, "assuming new era pricing models, big-cap stocks are not overpriced at all....the durability of our economy is almost palpable." Huh ? famous last words ? somebody look up "palpable" in the dictionary....I think she meant a different word ? ....7) and, after the close Wed., 14th, Bob Pisani. said, that many traders are telling him, "there's a feeling that the world's economy IS turning around, and that is the most compelling argument" (for blindly buying/holding stocks at new highs, and beginning to buy Foreign stocks which are already up a bunch)....more 'famous last words', sentiment-wise ?
8) 4/12, amazingly, Donald Rowe, he of misleading-mass-mailer fame, "just got bullish on Internet stocks", saying, "buying the right Internet stocks now, is like buying Ford Motor at 25 cents a share when the first car rolled off the assembly line....the growth that is underway now, is nothing compared to what will unfold over the next five years." Maybe FUNDAMENTALLY....but their STOCKS are currently priced as if all the money in the world will go to just these companies ....He loves AMZN at recent highs....someone check him for drugs (just kidding, but you get the point)....No way, I say: get out of them.... 9) and last, Wed., CNBC, 12:25 pm, Alberto Vilar, an RIA, said, (quote) "we are just in the first inning, in Internet stocks, buy EBAY and YHOO and Priceline, at their highs, as each will rise 5-10 times from here in the next two tears...it is impossible to see the momentum would even begin to wane....it's never obvious in the beginning...." Yeah, right....Have these people ever SEEN an I.G. top before ? Anyway, he calls this week "the beginning" of the Internet stock rise ? better check him also for drugs (kidding) ....I feel genuinely sorry for people who follow these guys, from here.... 10) Thu. 15th, CS, First Boston, just got bullish on some Biotechs, as in, BGEN, AMGN, IMNX, etc....have they SEEN the chart patterns on stocks like those ? I gave as Puttables....
e) 1) L.A., Times recently had a little article, on how, after recessions (which, let me b te first to suggest we may be close to heading into), in 1991, 1983, and 1975, "small-caps" OUT-performed large caps by a decent margin on the upside....They said "could this mean small stocks could rally in 1999, even if big stocks plunge ? (which is my general suggestion, as you know) History suggests not." huh ? They just said they might....did they read their study ? ....2) that new Ameritrade commercial showing two 30's women, one with 2 girls, running home, to check a recent stock trade, rather than present a positive potential picture, portrays them as overemotional and unintelligent, fostering negative stereotypes and is a farce, teaching us/them nothing of value....Another of their new commercials, has a mgr.-guy opening a new account, and his assistant saying, "it's easier than falling in love...." Gee, tons of things are easier than falling in love, yes ? So that message is misleading and not helpful, either.... Have you seen these ? Shame on you, Ameritrade....maybe, the fact that they are running out of valuable messages, points towards a "sentiment top" in those stocks ? ....3) Frank Barbera, KWHY-tv, Tue. 13th after close, showed nice chart comparing PE's of the S & P, to that of the Wilshire 5000 index....and, with S & P around 33., and the W. at around 18-20, the Secondary stocks were now as relatively cheapest, since 1972....more help for our depresseds.... 4) is this good or bad ? Found out that EGRP, AMTD, CMGI., and many other recently parabolic Internet stocks are actually IN, the Russell 2,000 index....Does this mean, our truly depresseds are even more attractive ? Or, does that mean that the seemingly decent recent behavior in this index is, like with the S & P, masking interior weakness by the vast majority of issues ? Oy, more stuff to think about....We'll lean bullish on our depresseds, technically, chart-wise, till see otherwise...
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "Covered
(previous) Short Sale", where no puts options existed....
1/2 pos. calls RYC (22 to 28++) for 150% G....1/2 pos. BVSN (66- to 49) for VQ 125% G....stk.on.mgn. NDE (10- to 15) for 100% Gain....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. HRBC (6+ to 10) for VQ 100% G....stk.on.mgn. MRVC (6 to 9++) for VQ 111% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. WND (5+ to 7+) for 66% G....bal. calls FWC (12 to 15) for VQ 80% G....1/2 pos. puts XOMD (41+ to 35+) for VQ 75% G....1/2 pos. puts VNWK (40- to 35-) for VQ 75% G.... stk.on.mgn. WORK (6++ to 11+) for 125% G....stock ABH (2 1/8 to 4+) for VVQ 85% G....1/2 pos. puts GENZ (54 to 42) for VQ 100% G....bal. stock BDE (2+ to 4) for Q 75% G....bal. puts CLX (128+ to 112) for 111% G.... 1/2 pos. calls RT (15- to 19++) for 111% G ....1/2 pos. calls WLV (19 to 24+) for Q 111% G....1/2 pos. calls COL (17+ to 22+) for VQ 111% G....stock DHC (3- to 6-) for 90% G....css DLIA (38 to 21+) for VVVQ 80% Gain....am giving out gains both longs and shorts, still....be sure to briefly read sec. (4) and (5) today....
and/but, longs, WKGP, PIN, GDC, CS, AN, and, puts, ADLAC (63 to 50 to 65), CTS (50 to 46 to 51), QCOM, NTLI., MRIS, CNMD, GTSG, ZION, ROV, BMY, HDL, BBY, MEL, BJ, for very quick, very small losses, of little overall consequence to a properly diversified portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy any Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their
patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just
buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with
less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent,
for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions"
have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(new ones) BAL @ 2+, 1/2 pos. CPU @ 6-, FAF @ 14, FNF @ 14+, MMWW @ 13-, OHI. @ 21+, 1/2 pos. OMM @ 1 9/16, ORCL @ 23+, PLL @ 16+, PSSI. @ 9-, SAP @ 25-, WWW @ 9+,
"Repeats" (Note --- these two lists are growing again): ADGO @ 3 11/16, APM 3 11/16, AR @ 13++, ASA @ 16, ASPT @ 6 1/8, ATV @ 1 1/4, AZC @ 9/16, BDT @ 3 1/8, BGE @ 25+, BKI. @ 13-, CAU @ 0.20, CCH @ 0.28, CELL @ 5 1/2, DAY @ , DHC @ 3-, DRFNY @ 3 3/4, DSGIF @ 3, EAR @ 9/16, EEX @ 5, FNL @ 5.06, GRERF @ 0.28, HDG @ 1.06, ICO @ 8.06, IOM @ 4 11/16, JOB @ 4 1/8, KNE @ 20-, LKI. @ 7, MHR @ 2 13/16, NGX @ 0.53, NSD @ 3, OCN @ 8-, OMX @ 8, ORI. @ 18+, RYC @ 21++, SOC @ 5+, SWW @ 2 3/16, TBP @ 4 7/8, TIE @ 5 13/16, TMAR @ 4 5/8, UMR @ 11/16, UQM @ 4+, VGZ @ 0.175, VMRX @ 1.06, VOO @ 6-, WS @ 1 9/16, WTT @ 1 9/16, XTR @ 38....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds...."buy low", right ?
Longsiders that seem(ed) to look the best, technically (where suitable, near their lows ONLY, and/but do NOT ignore all the others, some of which may look better in betweeen NL's....with NO guarantees, close stops, always diversified): in NO particular order: ASA, SEV, BKI., FHCC, HMT, LKI., APM, SWW, WTT, PAGE, ASPT, NSD, ADGO, EEX, near recent lows, ONLY....as best bases (others are EVB's)....LEARN, by VIEWING their patterns, dammit ! There are, of course, many others that also look VG technically, so view ALL charts of all ideas given in sec. (3) and sec. (6) as well....do it piecemeal, if needs be....others are already up....
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein,
countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT
"just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some
stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes
over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at
times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up
those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for
you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already
moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many
subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and
there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching"
NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly:
the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, SLVR, PSEM, GHM, GRL, MWHS, RSC, ST, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks, some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL. LEARN the patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol: (new ones) AMZN @ 189, AOL @ 163, BYND @ 35-, CSCO @ 119, DLIA @ 38, ELNK @ 96, MCD @ 47-, ODP @ 25++, SBH @ 73, SEEK @ 88-, SPLN @ 56, TI. @ 108-, VISX @ 140,
(and, note, some "new" Repeats again) AGPH @ 59+, AMGN @ 79, BGEN @ 119+, BSYS @ 59-, BUD @ 79+, BVSN @ 66, CL @ 96+, COX @ 79-, CREE @ 50+, EFAX @ 32-, EL @ 95-, ER @ 72+, FTEN @ 40, LOW @ 65+, METNF @ 54-, MSS @ 8+, ORBK @ 49+, PMCS @ 80, RG @ 19+, SYKE @ 31+, TAGS @ , TR @ 46+, TY @ 29+, TYC @ 79-, VLSI. @ 19+, VOD @ 198+, VRTS @ 88, WTSLA @ 39,
do note, we still "Put" several issues which had minor new highs, and/or fakeout-breakouts, which should tell you I still expect drops in many extended stocks....
and/but, took, GEOC, SDLI., GTSG, TFSM, CMNT, CMTO, UNPH, EAGL, BXM, PVN, SLR, TDS, TXT, UTX, BTY, HDI., ROK, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....any new highs = off the puts list....
IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web
site, a stock might break its extended S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed
EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy, or
put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still Added, as above....So I
am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying
any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and
therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted....this takes
just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues
which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then
incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the process is Your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", SVRN (wow), PAIR, IFMX, CCK, OCR, POM, IDX, TGX, OLN, AGU, RLC, WLT, IOM, RSG, TXI., HRC, POM, NRL, OEI., STC, NSM, PRD, FMC, HNV, GHV, CEI., NOI., SOI., KE, AW, BA, HM, IO., X., as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, XMCM, CNCX, AMAT, ABOV, IMNX, UNPH, RGIS, MTP, PFE, IBM, BSX, DT, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock here was specifically given herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
remember, you had several opportunities to buy almost all these stocks near their lows herein:
ABH 4 3/8 up 2 1/8 (S), DHC 5 7/8 up 2 3/4 (sos), NDE 16 3/4 up 5 1/2 (S), HRBC 10 1/4 up 2 3/4 (sos), WORK 11 1/4 up 2 1/2 (S), RYC 28 3/4 up 7 1/8....wow.
UQM 5 5/8 up 1, LTV 7 up 1 1/8, MRVC 9 3/4 up 1 5/8 (S), KMT 21 7/8 up 4 3/8 (sos), TIE 7 1/8 up 1 3/8, RJF 23 1/2 up 3 1/2, SYBS 9 1/8 up 1 1/8, TKN 8 up 3/4, PAR 10 7/8 up 2, MMWW 15 up 2 1/8, AG 8 3/8 up 1 5/8, ARG 10 3/8 up 1 7/8, CYM 14 up 2 5/8, OMX 9 1/8 up 1 1/4, BS 10 1/8 up 1 1/8, ICI. 43 up 6, AR 15 7/8 up 2 1/2, OS 13 1/4 up 1 7/8, W. 27 1/2 up 4 3/8, WWW 10 1/2 up 1 1/4, SAMC 6 1/4 up 5/8, BOY 13 3/4 up 1 3/8, MAH 15 up 1 3/4,
(cont'd.) PCAR 48 1/2 up 6 1/2, BMC 5 1/8 up 7/8, FAF 15 3/8 up 1 5/8, RT 19 3/4 up 2 1/8, FTR 12 5/8 up 1, FNF 15 5/8 up 1, ASA 17 1/8 up 1 1/8, ORCL 24 7/8 up 1 5/8, COL 22 1/2 up 1 3/4, IGL 21 1/8 up 1 7/8, IV 15 7/8 up 1 3/8, WLV 24 1/4 up 3 1/4 (sos), FJ 38 7/8 up 4 3/8, BIO/A 24 5/8 up 1 3/4, MEA 39 7/8 up 3 3/4, AOI. 3 1/2 up 3/8, PLL 17 1/2 up 1 1/4, ORCL 25 up 1 3/4, PAGE 4 3/4 up 3/8, SWK 29 1/4 up 1 1/2, SCZ 13 3/8 up 3/4, XTR 39 1/2 up 1 1/2, OHI. 22 3/8 up 1, SAP 25 7/8 up 1 1/8, ARW 15 3/8, PZN 16 7/8, MLP 10 5/8, FWC 15 3/8, ASPT 7 1/4, DSGIF 3 7/8, BGP 15 3/4, MXTR 8 3/8, UPR 12 5/8, NEM 19 1/4, HMT 12 1/8, NSD 3 1/4, WYG 9 1/4, all up/further, just since last time here....wow....a lot of winners, huh....
note, RT, WLV, COL, RYC, hit their 200 DMA....and, ARG, KMT, are approaching their 200 DMA ....also note, Ampex rose to hit $ 7., and ELCO hit $ 7., wow.... nice....YOU should be checking to see where the 200 DMA's are on any of the above stocks, you currently own....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some
subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, WS 1 3/4 up 3/8, HIV 2 1/4 up 3/8, DRFNY 4 up 3/8, ICO 8, 8 7/8, 8 1/4, 8 7/8, MXTR 7 1/4, CNU 1/2, 3/4, 1/2, BCP 5 5/8 up 5/8, CWC 9 up 1, AFCI. 9 7/8 up 1, 8 5/8, FCN 3 1/4, ASA, NEM 18-, 19+, BGE, APFC, HLX, RML, HRBC, FRTE, RJF, ORI., BIO/A, PMA 44 1/4, MHR, BBA, APM, IGT, TXB, RTC, FNL, HDG, AAC, COE, BDT, NPSI., FLH, TAROF, MCL, SUL, CCH, Metals....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) (note, this list is still Shrinking, get it ?) RDRT, NPRO, AFCI., APFC, SWK, RDRT, SWW, EAR, FNL, RYO, BLM, ECO, DAY, ORI., TBP, BGO, SAP, MCL, CAU, HCM, MSN, BS, cheap golds....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On next Weakness,
towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously long Puts right
near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned,
for Your Benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little
time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....
let them do their thing.
**** IMPORTANT, you MUST always view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and
present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....note, how VMC, CLFY, BOBJ, CLX, CNCX, GENZ, fell towards their 200 DMA's....and, OSI., approaches its 200 DMA....
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow): (some new names here) many, many bounces: remember, as I
have been saying, almost all Puttables must, still, break below their recent
lows, as "follow-through", obviously, including, SEEK +6, -5 1/2, AMZN +11, -24, +10, BVSN +8, -12 (sow), PMCS +6, -5, CREE +3 1/2, MKL +9, ZION +1 1/2, TAGS +2, CLX -3 (S), SYY, MTNT, PHCC, RTRSY +3, COST +1 1/2, VCELA +1, AXTI. +1, XOMD, FTEN, MEG/A, AGPH, TR -1, TYC -2, LOW -2, MSS, LLL +1 1/2, PMI. +1, SPLN +1, AMGN +2, PMI. +1 1/2, OK, TY, RG, ER, HRL....
again, we need to see many stocks break below recent lows/necklines, and, so
far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)"
sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn patterns from.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
*** Note, these lists are shrinking....
Prec.Metals (ASA, NEM, GSR, NGX, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DRFNY, AVGLY, DAY, AZC, BGO, all real cheapies, riskier, most need more work/time)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Copper) (LTV, RTC, FNL, IGL, NSD)
Energy and Oil Svc. (TMAR, UMR, EEX, MHR, SEV, etc., near their recent lows Only, and, more stocks, as below, on bigger pullbacks, ahead)
Biotech/Health/Medical (BAL, FHCC, TXB, HIV, EAR)
"Staffing/Employment" (JOB, MMWW, OLS, UWW, ASIS, NRL, PGA, ASF, may be too late for some already, oy)
Computer Memory Devices (APM, MXTR, WDC, RDRT, IOM) (may need work/time)
other Computer/Techs: (ATV, WTT, MTSI., CELL, ANDW, note, fewer now)
R.E.I.T./finance/Healthcare/title biz./Utilities, potential high-yield-plus (BGE, BOY, DTE, OHI., CEI., TPP, TRI., KE, HCR, TCO)
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy
list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": SLVR, PSEM, GHM, GRL, RSC, MWHS, ST, --- were taken Off....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....for one thing, we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first, and/or more fully formed "bases", yes ?
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY:
added some more (hey, its what the market tells me to add), adding, AW, BA, CNU, DTE, ESL, FAF, FNF, HEC, HM, HNV, HRC, HXL, ISSI., JH, NOC, NOI., OMX, ORCL, PAGE, POM, RLC, SAP, SCY, SGU, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) AAC, ACX, ADGO, AIMM, AOI., APM, AR, BAL, BDT, BKI., BMC, BYX, CDV, CEXP, CWC, DHC, DRFNY, EAR, ELCO, ESH, FCH, FCN, FHCC, FLC, FLH, FLM, FRTE, GDC, GRERF, GW, HDG, HLX, HMT, IGT, IO., IOM, KEG, KNE, LKI., LXR, MIDI., MLT, MMWW, MSN, OCN, PENN, PRD, PZN, RML, RRC, SAMC, SCZ, SHOW, SOC, SSN, SWW, TBP, TIE, TMAR, TTRIF, TWA, UQM, VMRX, WYG, XTR, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....
New, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: add, KMAG, CSX, SFSK, MANH, CHY, SHG, to, ICO, LDW, PSSI., TRI., TPP, WLT, WWW, PZE, STEI., W., WDC, GHV, OMM, TCO, TE, SOI., HNV, NR, NOV, PAA, KE, ISSI., IPIC, X., MI., CPU, LWN, GNCI., MLHR, as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....again, NOT Yet, but just to briefly give you an idea of what may be coming....this list is Growing....
note: more Energies, Utilities, Healthcare, Funeral, stocks added....
some right here, some Not just yet, as some still need more work, technically
....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force"
trades....note, I removed most all Utilities recently....
Remember, this is just a "watching to possibly buy" list !!! They only
become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, when/if they decline towards
lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over time, when
you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns ? This is
a positive, not a negative....note, we re-added some previously given names,
above here....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Medical: AGPH, PHCC, GENZ, GNE, BGEN, BMY, AMGN, etc.
Internet-oriented: YHOO, AMZN, AOL, etc.
All types of Media: VCI., YNR, etc.
Telecom, Cellular, Cable, Commun.: CMVT, COX, RG, TI., etc.
Retail: CM, CC, LOW, WTSLA, etc.
(all other "techs/computer-oriented, etc." are in lists below here, though, "computer enterprise software" stocks seem especially toppy)
**** some new ones (half of these are repeated from last time here, and I
have removed those 'already down'): added, ABOV, AOL, AXTI., BSX, CNCX, DLIA, EL, ER, HTN, IBM, METNF, ODP, ORBK, RNWK, SBH, SEEK, SPLN, TER, VISX, VLSI., VNWK, to,
("repeats") ABOV, AMAT, BSYS, BUD, CREE, GILTF, KIDE, MCD, MCRL, MKL, MLNM, MNMD, MTP, NEG, PMI., RGIS, ROST, SBA, TECH, TYC, UNFY, VOD, YNR ....Note, list is SHRINKING, which is unexpected, as some breakout, and others fall....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: Online Brokerage and Banking, Retail, Cap. Goods, Blue Chips, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Bank/Insurance/Finance, Computer/Internet/Software, Entertainment, High-PE Techs, Media, and all Tele.-Commun., near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW LESSON: the choice of whether one buys long, just the "basers", or the "EVB's" and "double-bottoms", is totally up to YOU....Basers often rise slower, but their rises tend to stick a bit more, and can go farther, longer, yes ? EVB's , often pop quickly, then pullback anyway, and sometimes form/become "bases".... re-read my "Guide", and "EVB" booklets...
* For instance, again, take the Oil Service stocks....one had two sets of choices/decisions to make, along the way:
* on the Buy(s): before you bought, were you expecting just a S.T. bounce-and-out, or a longer-term, hopefully higher % price rise ? Initially, my recommendations had these as "EVB's", remember ? Last year when I first gave them out ? Some brokedown intially, and then still formed "second bases" at slightly lower prices, when, eventually the whole I.G. set up perfectly....The initial bounces off the EVB's were S.T., as expected off EVB's, and did not hold, dig ? I was on T.V. Oct. 7, showing these stocks as EVB buys....
* Then, on the expected pullbacks, after the summer "market" drops, last October, many of these same stocks then became double-bottoms, yes ? So I added them again...again, some broke, but many more bounced, and/but, more importanly, many began to BASE....GET IT ??
* On my next T.V. appearance later in Nov. '98, I really drove their "bases" home, (a baseball pun, now that I think of it) showing tons of near-perfect stage 1 bases among Energies/Services stocks....with the desired negative crap from the Media and Fundamentalists, we need, for bottms to form, remember ? When these stocks finally bottomed while holding their base lows, the rise was expected to be bigger than the previous ones in 1998, probably reaching their early 1998 highs, anyway, exactly as predicted in many of my NL's at that time....
* The "rises till recently", did just that....because the bases were longer and more established, by Dec. '98, we had more confidence, and expected higher % rises than we had previously exploited, dig ? But --- as with the previous two predicted rises, one had more, follow-on decisions to make:
* was/is this the "big kahuna", whereby we get true, L.T. breakouts, above any levels seen since/during 1998 ? or, because the rise came so quickly and was accompanied by too many "Media latecomer bulls", that, even if they went higher L.T., would they still have to pullback again into the stage 1 base, one more time, first ? GET IT ?
* Well, as I predicted in these NL's, there was indeed too much bullish sentiment/coverage, too soon, so we sold most all, for very big Gains for you, and await(ed) pullbacks, where we now stand....some actually rose above their 1998 levels, and one could have used trailing stops, or at least lightened up, instead of selling all, etc....0bviously "equity" holders did/do not have the "time/expiration" constraints, that option holders have/had....option traders probably had/have to take the gains more quickly....
* some NL subs. S.T. traders actually got 2-3-4 opportunities to buy-and-sell, with 2 or 3 big % gains, with maybe one cut loss along the way....While Intermediate-term traders (L.T., ITM options only, right ?) either bought last Summer (one possible QSL, initially, then they also bt. more in last Fall/Winter), for beautiful gains into Feb./Mar. '99)
* Now ? as I have been saying above, on/after further pullbacks, many Energy/Services stocks are likely to bounce again down the road....there are some listed in sec. (6) already....Because the bases are so nifty on many, it is unlikely we will see the super-1998-lows on these stocks again for quite a while....SEE THE SEQUENTIALLY STAGED PATTERN ? lesson learned....
As usual with my "PSYCLE sm" the keys were: 1) knowing to buy, low, on negative fundamentals, in EVB or base.... 2) not panicking if cutting a QS loss, staying with the program/concept.... 3) buying new/more, even though previous trade might have been a QSL, when they set up again, technically.... 4) selling for nice gains, when/if they reached previous resistance levels.... 5) and, NOT expecting the moon, nor getting excited or emotional....
you're welcome....thank you....
* The following several paragraphs are in every NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding, and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops, and July '98 tops, and drops, have
proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my
main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match
my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously,
have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things,
properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you
actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE
you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows,
for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming
you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from
the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....