Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, ended formally, back in early April 2000, with issue # 207+, a while ago....(so/but this NL is Not really being actually published formally, publically, any more, and has not been, for quite a while now ....I just wanted a place to keep track of what I would have said and done and felt, since I was forced undeservedly to stop my NL, months ago....this is ONLY for my own edification and proof of the value of my output and concepts to others), and anyone reading this has NOT gotten it from me....
dated: 9:30 am, PST, Wednesday, April 18, 2001


"2001: a Trading Odessey"

or, "The Patterns Rarely Change"

Important Note: this serious, very valuable "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, due to the too-often at least semi-gestapo, uncaring, ridiculous, illogical, NASD/SEC rules, and the uncaring, inconsiderate, and thoughtless nature of most all brokerage firms....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, here, twice each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance, very-long-term track record, and to offer further significant, in-advance, in-writing, 'proof' of the value and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

Well, have you missed it ? we didn't....I am so proud of my output, and so upset at my clients for not doing what I have been suggesting.... for the umpteenth time, stocks will always rise a bunch off lows, BEFORE any whiff or 'better bnews/fundamentals' are disseminated.....how many times do I have to prove this ? hey, if anyone has not made any money recently, has not been for my lack of trying to help....exactly perfect lately....

Hilarious, and sad: Wed. a.m., after a big predicted-only-by-me pop in NASDAQ stocks, did the Fed ann. they lowered Fed Fuunds Rate by 1/2 % - and all he 95%-ers who missed it (again) are, as usual in the pattern, now 'beginning' to get less bearish -also exactly as expected....late, as usualk, higher than they needed to buy stuff....my God, if I had a dime for evbery time I reported this....

anyway, the VVST relief/euphoria surrounding the Fed's rate cut, meant that, after the first couple of hours, Wed., one should have taken tons of VVST gains in Techs, when/if near their initial resistance/previous breakdown levels, as taught, yes ? good for y'all....and, it should go without saying, that, after any pullbacks here, one must buy even more....And, continue to watch those Puttables all along, regardless....

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) in addition to all the correct predictions I have been first/only to give out lately, note the T-bond has fallen, as certainly I was among the very few to have predicted from its also-predicted-here-only S.T. top over 106+, from 107, to 101, lately - even as the perception has been that "I.R.'s are falling", dig ? purely a technical phenonemnon, decent support around 98 or so, just FYI, L.T. ...2) note weakness in Homes/Builders, and health-related, stocks, exactly as I, again, am the first/only to have predicted herein for you recently....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) exactly as I have taught you, for instance, Tue., the wrong-way Media incorrectly tried to continue to pan Techs, saying, "Cisco stock down on more wrnings", when, in fact, it was already UP, =40 % here....the pattern rarely changes....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) note the U.S. Trade Deficit has FALLEN again, almost by a record amount, again in Feb., from Jan., this year.... the biggest decline in Imports....I heard NO one else predict that late last year, did you ? Note, as I have been teaching for years, lower deficits have been NEGATIVE, and vice-versa, the exact opposite of what 'the 95%' have been incorrectly assuming for years....next ....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) ....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1)

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....

"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:

shiftuing, exactly as predicted here first, more Longsider gains for you: 1/2 pos. calls LSCC (18 to 24) for VQ 133% G....1/2 pos. calls ASML (20 to 26) for VQ 125% Gain....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. LPTH (10+ to 17-) for VVQ 111% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. PROX (8++ to 14) for VQ 111% G....1/2 pos. NTAP (13+ to 20-) for VVVVQ 85% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. CRDS (4 to 7) for VVVQ 100% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. DITC (8+ to 12+) for Q 80% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. MERX (11 to 16) for VQ 85% G....

and/but, longs, FBR ?, CCK, and, puts, ATVI, EXC (fobo) ?, UNP, MTB, THC no ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:

(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs): **** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:

1/3 pos. ALO @ 30- ?, DCLK @ 10 1/8, 1/2 pos. FORR @ 22-, IBI. @ 14+, 1/2 pos. IMDC @ 21-, LU @ 7 1/8, 1/2 pos. PRIA @ 15-, 1/2 pos. RSYS @ 16++, TEK @ 24+, TRLY @ 8+,
1/2 pos. FNV @ 1.5, 1/3 pos. GRL @ 8++, 1/2 pos. TCC @ 11,

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): ANDW @ 14++, BCU @ 5/8, BLC @ 15+, BGO @ 0.405, BKI. @ 11+, CTC @ 12++, CTV @ 15+, GTW @ 15+, HNV @ 0.29, IOM @ 3 1/4, KFY @ 15++, KGC @ 0.46, KRY @ 3/4, LTD @ 15+, MLT @ 8-, MWBX @ 6 1/2, PPE @ 10-, REMC @ 8+, UFI. @ 6, VGZ @ 0.08, VOXX @ 7+...."buy (only) low", right ?

** Important: took, SCUR, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.".... we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops:
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): JOE @ 23+,
P.S.- CEI, CPT, GTK, were not put....
KMP @ 63-, SOTR @ 47-,

"Repeats": ALL @ 42 ?, ASFC @ 55, CHD @ 25, CNT @ 47+, GCO @ 27, HOTT @ 29, KMI. @ 60-, KPP @ 34+, ORI. @ 29-, PFGC @ 54+, RE @ 69, RJR @ 57, THC @ 47, TRH @ 105, UNH @ 60-, UVV @ 39++, WSC @ 311-,

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, EXC, KMP, GTK, CPT, CEI, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", AMT, TMCS, YHOO, ABSC, MSLV, BKHM, PSEM, GTS, SCUR, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, HCA, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs.... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):

**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).



acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn the pattern, more:
Still More nice Gains for you, all through recent travails, ay ? :
nice: NTAP 20 up 6 1/2 (sos), CRDS 7 1/4 up 2, LPTH 17.5 up 3.1, PRSF 9 up 1 1/2, MPS 4.63 up 0.44, PMTC 11.6 up 3.2, CSCO 19.5 up 3.7, AVX 21.18 up 3.66, TEK 29.38 up 5.50, MLT 9 up 1 1/4, ASYT 17.35 up 2.22, ANDW 17 1/2 up 3 1/8, GTW 17.8 up 2.6, VRTA 14 up 2, RSYS 20- up 4, KFY 17 1/4 up 1 3/4, TSM 22 up 2, REMC 10.01 up 2, SCI. 25.85 up 3.33, ASML 26.6 up 3.6, SAWS 23.7 up 3.7, LSCC 24.12 up 1.77, KEM 20.9 up 3.4, LU 7.83 up 0.84, CS 15.4 up 1.8, BCGI. 8 up 5/8, AMKR 20 up 2, TV 41 3/4 up 3 1/4, PRIA 17 1/2 up 3, CTV 18.7 up 1.3, FORR 24.8 up 3.3, PROX 14.07 up 1.66, MERX 16.2 up 1.81, APCC 15.25 up 1.25, MGM 19.11 up 1.46, IMDC 21.85 up 1.31, DCLK 11.21 up 1.21, SRM 14 up 1 5/8, COHU 18.2 up 1.6, BBOX 51 3/4 up 5 1/4, BKI. 12.35 up 1, INTI. 7.80 up 0.80, EGLS 17.4 up 1.5, FCS 16.39 up 1.39, JWN 17.9 up 1 1/8,

more: DITC 12.37, KNT 20.45, RNWK 9.53, TRLY 8.85, IN 7.61, NTOP 9, TSTN 6.31, BLC 16.15, N. 16.66, CGO 28 3/4, DD 46.8, higher since last NL here ....and SPCT 16.25 up 2.90, GSPN 22+ up 4, AMZN 18 up 4 more, ANAD 18 up 7 (sos), revalidated as suggested....

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and more bounces after pullbacks:
all Techs, (giving you ample opp. to buy more !), VOXX 7.70, 8.35, PPE, MWBX 6.4, 7.0, KRY, RCG, HA, SVRN, HNV, GAB 11.3, VRA, MPS, AWE, PGO, RNWK 9, BCU, FON 21.6, NTAP, HPOW 7.41, ZRAN, MT 4.22, STTX, VGZ, SAWS....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....


and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:

(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) LNUX, CCRT, PAP, SNBC, CTHR, INSP, KANA, LTD 15.35, IN, VOXX, UFI, CBJ, STG....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, stick around:

Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out to learn:
TJX -4 1/2, ALL -1 1/4, PSC -1 1/4, RJR -1, CHD -1, CNT, MTG, lower since last NL here....

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
: RE -2 1/2, PFGC -1, THC -1 1/4, WSC, LNCR, MNI, CNT, HSIC, TJX +2 1/4, PGR +2 1/2, JNY +1, HOTT, ALL +1....were, EXC, RE, 'fobo's' ? this ends our 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):


these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (FRT, HCN, TCC, ARJ, TCO, JPR, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals/steel" (CAS (also nice pot. div.), CBJ, KRY, STTX, STLD, KGC, X, etc.)
depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, most Chem., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Papers, Apparel, Regional Banks/Finls.

*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, emi., comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not broken down, nor popped up too much recently, already, before you buy), ACTM, ABSC, AWRE, PSEM, SRM, NTAP, PWAV, PRIA, FINL, IMDC, HELE, KNSY, MCSI, METH/A, BKHM, DSPG, RSYS, UAXS, CTS, TRLY, GTW, GLW, TEK, GM, ABF, BLC, GRA, GTS, MRD, NTT, VG, to, CS, IBI, JBL, LTD, JDAS ?, BCGI, ALSC, APCC, UFI., KFY, MPS, MLT, MAXY, PPE, BKI, MBK, CGO, AVX, TSM, TER, SCI, IDTI, CC, AWE, MGM, ASML, TMCS, CTC, DCLK, VRTA, IOM, RNWK, TSTN, NOPT, HPOW, IN, DITC, PPE, MPH, CTHR, CBR, MPH, STLD, TG, ZRAN, PDG, SVRN, CRDS, FNV, CCRT, KGC, RCG, KNT, PRSF, NTOP, ASYT, MWBX, TRAC, SNE, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, as all others have been Removed:

* add, TRH, PSC, UNM, BWS, KMI, to, FTN no ?, CHG, THC no ?, HCA, ORI, RJR, SLM, UVV, WSC, RE ?, PB, DEO, KMP, CHD, CBL, ABM, CPT, JOE ?, WWY, HOTT, PHCC, RESP, SGR, CF, ITG, SPH, UNH, TFX ?, ASFC, BSYS, CHIC, COCO, CHTR ?, WCNX ?, APOL, ATVI, SOTR, HSIC, KPP, ASBC, GCO, SNV, SSP, JCI, PBG, LNCR, IVGN, CV, WAG, ALSI, EXPD, PPDI, MET, PX, PNC, BRO, CYTC, CNT, INSUA, MNI, from recent past NL's....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Loans, defense, Tobacco, Disc. Chains, S.E. Banks, HMO's/health care, wholesale food, Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services, Commercial Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Homes-related/bldg., High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES