1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Wicked rotation lately, with our previously-depressed Cyclicals up fast and furious for us, but too late to buy them now....Question: did you "never" even look at those kind of stocks, "because they are not sexy" ? if so, then you have much to learn, still....Re-read my "Psychology" and "Scenarios" and "Ind. Group Rotation" booklets....As taught in my Booklets, too many "techie" traders and "silicon valley"-types, tend to ONLY look at "Tech." stocks, to the ridiculous exclusion of all other types, dig ? their loss, yes ? Open your minds, gang, which is what you wanted when you wanted my oputput, yes ? 'nuff said....
But it is becoming already harder to find those still-depresseds to catch near lows without "paying up" off lows....As I said, we do not fight the tape, but we do not "pay way up", either....While I will not take credit for predicting "all" the quick 'second-stage' rises among some OIl Services (though I did specifically say herein, that, after pullbacks, they WOULD breakout, yes ?), I did give you more/other Energies lately buyable anyway....Plus, you already made out big from their lows, stage 1....Again, some subscribers want(ed) quick-and-out, others, want(ed) bigger, longer-term potential....of course, that is always up to you....I just report what actually happened to my ideas....As predicted, the recent "EVT's" among Internets and Brokers looks similar to last spring's pattern....It is interesting that many Utilities look bottomy, while some Banks look toppy....Wall St. stupidly always "links" them (re-read my "Scenarios" booklet on that important subject). Mon. 19th, I heard that today, are about 123 new highs on the NYSE, but only 9 new highs on the OTC....rotation, yes ?
you could just about have thrown darts, buying one each, of stocks in 3-4-5- different industry groups herein, and made money recently....many, many, were buyable SEVERAL times, all along, near their easily catchable lows....you had no excuses this time.....
note new philosophical "Lesson" in sec. (8) below, just FYI....
Also, Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL
applicable, staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable,
"PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever
I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of,
for YOUR educational/trading benefit....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And note, the "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in sections (2). Longer
lists and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7)....and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). If you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you can chosse to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage.
Obviously, if "YOU" choose not to want certain types of stocks/plays, like real cheapies, or Puts, etc., or YOU choose not to learn how to do certain things better, it is your choice to do so, but realize, that other valued subscribers DO want them. You have to weigh, your time, against the significant value of learning my patterns of lifetime benefit. There ARE more than a few subscribers who are even successfully trading some of the stocks I 'miss' herein, because THEY are VIEWING the charts....'nuff said.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?): 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today: (I forgot to put this in last NL....see what happens when everybody demands everything, many different ways, from me, all the time, yet many won't take the time to study and learn the patterns ?)
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) hey, cool, I was the ONLY (and obviously first) to catch the "R.E. Title"tock at lows for you here.....neat.... 2) did the Philly "Elec. Utility" Index break down ? Nope....we'll stay bullish on ours for now....added more, in sec. (6) below....also remember, there are Elec. Utils., and Gas Utils., and Phone Utils., each different.... 3) gee, with the DJ. Trans. Avg. breaking out another 80, Fri., and up 120 more Mon., note how, Thu., Delta still fell....see, you gotta separate the Airlines, from the Rails, from the Trucking, within the "Trans." ind., as taught in my "I.G.R." booklet....re-read it....now approaching all-time 1998 high on that index, around 3680 to 3701.... 3) note recent pop in Copper itself, as I suggested would happen a little while back, here, when in the low 60's area.... 5) viewing a longer-term chart of the Philly "Paper/Forest" index, shows a potential triple-top up here, going back a year or so, unless the recent slight breakout is for real....given that the Media loves them too much, too soon, as with the big Airlines, it may still be a fakeout-breakout ? hence likely "partial" sales below, soon.... 6) and while i am on the subject of "too much, too soon", ditto for the/our "Cyclical" stocks already up, just being discovered, too late, dig ? just know that, historically, strength among cyclicals/smokestack issues tends to occur late in the cycle ....7) evidently, we recently have had the highest levels of "commercial/business accounts" long Gold, in years....levels which have historically accompanied the last few major lows....As you know, figured a pop in Gold, as predicted here first, then yet another pullback, then maybe a bigger rise down the road ? I, again, seem to be the first/only, to have given out some S. Afr. gold stocks neartheir lows, recently....and, NEM and ASA.... 8) slight new recovery high in Crude Oil, as some Energy stocks do, and others "try" to get above recent highs ....but I have NO further opinion on those, from up here, yet.... 9) I am also, the first and certainly only, to have given out the depressed REIT stocks near their recent lows for you herein....NO one else is even mentioning their recent rises already begun....Of course, once higher, "the Media" will then "begin" to notice them, and "begin" to get bullish, late, right ? ....10) remember, many Energy stocks remain buyable on pullbacks....just not the extended-already-up ones....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, or improper comments from the Financial
Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) Thu. 15th, Pisani. CNBC, 11:05 am, said, "TWX" chart looks semi-parabolic, look at that move...." Huh ? it had barely risen from 60 to 75, NOT parabolic at all....geez....and, it fell, from 78 to 66 right after his "bullish" comments, dig ? ....2) CNBC's Joe Kernan, Thu. 11:20 am, showing a stock I was first/only to give out at last year's low, "PKX", way up, saying, "how can it be up ? China's economy is slowing...." 3) all day Thu., everyone else is "just discovering" the Farm, Agri.-Chem., Cap. Goods stocks that I gave out herein first near their lows....too late, as usual.... 4) Pisani. again, after the close, Thu., about the recent rises in basic Ind. stocks, "I am hearing a lot of traders on the floor saying, they don't want to hear about Fundamentals....they just want to get in....so I think they'll have a pop...." Gee, haven't these stocks already HAD more than a "pop" ? ....5) Ted David, CNBC, Fri., 8:10 am, said, on 10th anniv. of CNBC, to viewers, "thank you, for making us what we are today...." What's that, Ted, a good source for mostly useless/incomplete/sensationalized stories, only occasionally valuable info., and contrary timing signals ? .... 6) Mon. 19th, 7:30 am, Pisani. actually said, "why are the Rails and Truck stocks rising ? maybe because of Kosovo....there may be something going on there"....I am not even going to comment on that ridiculous "link."
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.:
1) CNBC, Pisani., Fri. asked how come "ODP" stock fell (as only I was first to predict/give out herein recently), "when they announced their internet sales were up 750 %"....ever read a chart, Bob ? ....2) Fri. 7:55 am, Pisani. also said, "GE" "stock correlates nicely with movements of the DJIA"....well, duh....it's 5 % of the avg., you dolt....and, even knowing that, helps us how, exactly ? .... 3) our "TYC" was super-recommended front page, Barron's, 4/12....Q, cut loss... 4) a recent financial magazine chose "PFE" as its 'stock of the year', kiss of death, as usual....I cannot recall which, but also got mentioned as such on CNBC, Mon. 19th....
d) more, late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) gee, the McLellan Osc. did break above recent consolidation pattern....and the Summation Index also barely broke above the zero line, Thu. Puzzling, but, since, only the "extended" stocks are falling, while 'more' 'others' are rising, this is logical behavior.... 2) I don't know how guys like this attract money: a mgr., Swarthmore Group Funds, CNBC, Fri., 7:40 am, said "Campbell Soup" was, "mmm mmm good"-- wrong-- its stock is DOWN big over the past year he liked/held it....and that "SEEK" was "severely beaten up lately" -- wrong, same price now, as in Jan., and still up 300 % since last Oct., and is "a great company" -- gosh, maybe, some day, but not at these stock prices....and, that "MAT" "will have S.T. difficulty, given a rough fundamental outlook", yet its stock is in a decent base....he's probably wrong on that one also.... 3) Barron's 4/17, among Louis Navallier's favorite stocks way up here, are: BGEN, EMC, AOL, BBY, LU, SWY.... all would be on my do-not-buy list....we shall see....he's never bought a depressed base in his career....and, a pet peeve of mine, he gives out many more stocks than I do, in his NL, and yet gives NO targets, no technical chart concepts, no stops, and uses no I.G. rotation.... 4) Barron's 4/17, the McLellan's (see past NL's here) 4/2 NL, said, "that the NASDAQ has been stronger on a relative-strength basis has been a healthy sign for the overall market," and, "gold stocks look awful and should not see any bottom until early June at the earliest", and, "the rise in Crude Oil (and such stocks) is about done, and should all be given back by August." Zero for three....They also look for a bigger stock market decline, after slight highs early May, and a bottom early July....
5) "Internet Bull" John Hotchkis, in Barron's, 4/12, actually said, "the Internet has achieved the same significance in our lives as eating, sleeping, and making love." and, "what you pay for a stock is irrelevant, as long as everyone else is buying it." and, "this is a new paradigm." wow....But he saves himself a bit by saying, that the fact that MSFT and GE together now have a market cap bigger than the entire Russell 2,000 index, "reminds me of the heady days of Japanese R.E., when the Imperial Palace itself, sported a value greater than all the residential R.E. in the entire state of California (1993)." ....6) also, Barron's 4/12, an institutional guy, mentioned growing pressure on money mgrs. to buy/hold Internet stocks way up here....makes sense....but to whom are they going to sell them, when-and-if, later ? ....7) as I suggested here months ago, Barron's 4/12, showed the "Dogs of the Dow" again, UNDER-performing the S & P, each of the last two quarters....As I keep saying, such a simplistic concept cannot produce huge L.T. returns....plus, without using technicals, NOTHING works well, except occasional luck.... 8) super-perma-bull Don Wolanchuk, Mon. 19th, 7:20 am, missed the whole recent rise of all the depresseds/cyclicals, but still sees breakout DJIA over 10,700, after which "we will fly".... 9) and, in the ever-changing saga of Jerry Favors, CNBC reported Fri. 16th, 12:30 pm, that "he doesn't think the market has topped yet, though he did last week." huh ? oy..... 10) Mon. 19th, CNBC, 9:55 am, mentioned Warren Buffett evidently bought a depressed Outlet Retail REIT stock recently....wonder if he is reading my NL ?
e) 1) remember I mentioned that gal from my Yoga class who bought an overpriced home right near the top, recently, in So. Calif. ? Well she just told me that, last week, her broker had her sell "BGP" right at the bottom (where this NL bought it), "because it was doing do badly", and had her buy "better companies" , like, WMT, MRK, and IBM, right at their tops....Like many lazy, ignorant people, she keeps asking about my NL, but never subscribes....while she continues to pay a not-so-good major-firm broker tons of money, while not doing well the last 2 years in the stock market.... 2) last NL here, I mentioned contrary toppy "news item" on "VISX"....note I have now added others in its I.G. in sec. (7) below).... 3) O.C. Register, 4/18, "Schoolgirls making a killing in the market": some third-graders in O.C., using an offshoot of the stock market game I created at Boston U. in 1975 (long story, as usual, just glad to have helped the country), using proverbial fake money, and recently chose: Audiohighway, AMZN, SEEK, AOL, PIXR, to buy up here....Boy, if they follow those for a while, are THEY going to learn a lesson !
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "Covered
(previous) Short Sale", where no puts options existed....
1/2 pos. puts SEEK (88- to 52+) for VVQ 250% Gain....1/2 pos. FJ (29+ to 39+) for VQ 175% G....1/2 pos. calls NEM (17- to 21+) for VVQ 100% G....1/2 pos. calls AR (13++ to 17++) for VQ 100% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. ALN (5- to 7+) for Q 90% G....calls ARG (8 to 10+) for 55% G....1/2 pos. calls OS (9++ to 13+) for Q 75% G....bal. puts BVSN (66- to 51) for VVQ 111% G....1/2 pos. puts BGEN (119 to 97) for VVVQ 80 % G....puts NEG (27+ to 25+) for VQ 50% G....bal. puts VNWK (40- to 32+) for Q 80% G....and, of course, we have dozens of other big % long-side 'paper gains', some VERY likely to be taken, into S.T. semi-parabolic rises, very soon....
and/but, longs, none !, and, puts, PMCS (84 to 74 to 84), PHCC, TYC, TAGS, TY, for very quick, very small losses, of little overall consequence to a properly diversified portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy any Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their
patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just
buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with
less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent,
for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions"
have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(new ones) AM @ 23++, BYX @ 3 7/16, DGN @ 10, ESC @ 10, ESH @ 5.06, GEMS @ 4-, HEC @ 1 3/4, KEG @ 3.06, MLT @ 6 13/16, MT @ 12-, SCY @ 4 1/8, SFSK @ 8, SGU @ 14, SUB @ 38+, TE @ 20-, WIX @ 3 7/8, and, the "D.J. Util. Avg. @ 291+", (BTW, last time's "buy" here of IOM, did not occur, just missed it)
"Repeats" (Note --- these two lists are shrinking again): ADGO @ 3 3/4, APM 3 11/16, ASPT @ 6 1/8, ATV @ 1 1/4, AZC @ 9/16, BAL @ 2+, BDT @ 3 1/8, BGE @ 25+, BGO @ , BKI. @ 13, CAU @ 0.20, CCH @ 0.28, CELL @ 5 1/2, CNU @ 0.46, CPU @ 5 7/8, DAY @ , EAR @ 9/16, ECO @ 1 11/16, EEX @ 5 1/8, FAF @ 14, FHCC @ 15 3/16, FNF @ 14+, FNL @ 5, GDC @ 2 3/16, GRERF @ 0.28, GSR @ 3/4, HCM @ 4.06, HDG @ 1.06, HMT @ 11+, JOB @ 4 3/16, KNE @ 20-, MCL @ 9++, MHR @ 2 13/16, NGX @ 0.53, ORI. @ 18+, PMA @ 43+, PZN @ 16+, SOC @ 5+, SWW @ 2 3/16, TBP @ 4 7/8, UMR @ 11/16, VGZ @ 0.175, VMRX @ 1.06, VOO @ 6-, WTT @ 1 9/16....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds...."buy low", right ?
Longsiders that seem(ed) to look the best, technically (where suitable, near their lows ONLY, and/but do NOT ignore all the others, some of which may look better in betweeen NL's....with NO guarantees, close stops, always diversified): in NO particular order: FHCC, APM, SWW, WTT, PAGE, ASPT, NSD, ADGO, ESH, MLT, SFSK, Utilities ?, near recent lows, ONLY....as maybe the best bases (others are EVB's)....LEARN, by VIEWING their patterns, dammit ! There are, of course, many others that also look VG technically, so view ALL charts of all ideas given in sec. (3) and sec. (6) as well....do it piecemeal, if needs be....others previously given are already up....but I may soon remove this item again....
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein,
countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT
"just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some
stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes
over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at
times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up
those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for
you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already
moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many
subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and
there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching"
NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly:
the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, none, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks, some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL. LEARN the patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol: (new ones) BMET @ 43+, BTY @ 174, DY @ 43++, FM @ 26, HTN @ 46, KIDE @ 32, MEL @ 74-, ORLY @ 48+, POWI. @ 33+, ROST @ 44-, SANM @ 70, TCAT @ 47, SWC @ 28+, WWCA @ 46-,
(and, note, some "new" Repeats again) AGPH @ 59, AMZN @ 191, AXTI. @ 22+, BSYS @ 59-, CM @ 44, CMNT @ 16+, CREE @ 48+, EL @ 94++, ER @ 72+, HRL @ 36+, LLL @ 49-, METNF @ 54+, MKL @ 183+, MSS @ 8, OK @ 47-, ORBK @ 49+, RG @ 19+, RTRSY @ 96-, TR @ 46+, VISX @ 135, VLSI. @ 19+, VRTS @ 88,
and/but, took, MCRL, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....any new highs = off the puts list....
IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web
site, a stock might break its extended S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed
EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy, or
put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still Added, as above....So I
am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying
any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and
therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted....this takes
just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues
which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then
incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the process is Your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", PCTL, MWHS, PSEM, STEI., TPP, GT, GW, ESL, HM, SHG, SMT, RRC, PZE, NOC, TRI., TCO, AMD, ACK, CAM, RSC, DTE, WLM, AN, HPC, IOM, GRT, HPH, PGA, TMO, TWA, PKD, PGO, CAS, TRC, MMG, TRC, HPH, PDG, RSG, IO., as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, UIHIA, EBAY, QWST, QCOM, USAI., MNMD, ATI., BK, BMY, CVS, AOL, ADVP, BYND, MHP, BSX, TJX, SGP, AMO, LNC, PSUN, NTLI., as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock here was specifically given herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....
note how many or my previously given, long-side stocks with slight breakdowns, rose big recently !
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
remember, you had several opportunities to buy almost all my stocks near their lows: lots more big % winners for you lately:
GSR 1 up 3/8, OMM 2 3/4 up 1 1/4, WS 2 5/8 up 1, KEG 4 up 1, LKI. 9 1/8 up 2 1/8, HLX 7 1/2 up 2 5/8, HEC 2 1/8 up 1/2, PSSI. 11 7/8 up 3, SEV 5 up 1 1/8, BMC 6 3/4 up 1 5/8, TMAR 7 1/8 up 1 3/4, FAF 18 up 3 3/8, XTO 10 up 2 (sos), MHR 3 1/2 up 3/4, EEX 6 1/4 up 1 1/4, BYX 4 up 5/8, TMAR 6 1/8 up 1 1/8, CPU 6 7/8 up 1 1/8, SWK 35 up 5 3/4, HMT 12 7/8 up 1 3/4, BKI. 15 up 1 3/4, AOI. 3 7/8 up 3/8, AAC 5 7/8 up 7/8, WWW 10 3/4 up 1, LTV 7 7/8 up 7/8, AG 9 5/8 up 1 1/4, KMT 25 1/8 up 3 1/4, ADGO 4 1/8 up 3/8, RYC 33 1/2 up 3 1/2, CELL 6 3/8 up 5/8, WYG 11 1/2 up 1 3/4, BS 10 7/8 up 1 1/4, BGP 17 5/8 up 1 7/8, SFSK 8 5/8 up 3/4, FNF 17 5/8 up 2, PZN 18 7/8 up 2, FLH 9 7/8 up 1 1/4....more "wows"....
(cont'd) DGN 11 up 1, NEM 20 7/8 up 1 5/8, OHI. 24 1/4 up 1 7/8, WYG 9 7/8 up 5/8, MLP 11 1/2 up 7/8, UPR 13 3/4 up 1 1/4, PMA 49 3/4 up 6 1/2, AR 17 3/4 up 1 3/8, IGT 17 1/2 up 1 3/8, OS 14 1/4 up 1, FHCC 16 up 7/8, IV 17 1/4 up 1 1/2, ORI. 20 1/4 up 1 1/4, KNE 21 1/8 up 1 1/4, RML 21 3/4 up 1 1/4, BGE 27 up 1 7/8, MEA 41 up 1 7/8, W. 28 7/8 up 1 1/2, XTR 41 1/8 up 1 3/8, PCAR 50 1/4 up 1 3/4, ORCL 25 5/8, ANDW 13 1/4, CYM 14 5/8, IGL 23 1/4 up 1 1/8, WLV 25 3/4 up 1 1/8, ICO 9 5/8 up 5/8, MT 12 1/2 up 3/4, TE 20 5/8 up 3/4, SUB 39 7/8 up 1 3/4, ICI. 43 7/8, MMWW 15 1/8, HRBC 10 3/8, COL 23, SYBS 8 5/8, DRFNY 4 3/8, DSGIF 4, ARG 10 1/2 (S), SAP 26 1/4, MAH 15 3/4, ASA 18 1/8, SCZ 13 3/4, SYC 14 1/8, OHI. 24 1/2, PLL 18, RT 20 7/8, TKN 8 1/2, PAR 11 3/8, AGU 9 5/8, TIE 7 3/4, BBA 5 5/8, SWW 2 1/2, FJ 40 3/8, FTR 12 7/8, FWC 15 7/8, JOB 4 1/2, BOY 14 1/8, VOO 6 3/8, HMT 13, up/further, just since last time here....
*** for the last time: note, SWK, RT, WLV, COL, RYC, ARG, MAT, ASA, IGL, hit or exceeded their 200 DMA....and, KMT, OLS, AR, XTO, are approaching their 200 DMA ....YOU should be checking to see where the 200 DMA's are, on any of the above stocks, you currently own....
also, note, these rose even higher, as secondary moves (late stage 2 action ?): IDTC 30+, CSE 34, HPC 34+, DE 46, OXY 20+, WND 10 3/4, PKX 30- wow, FCH 25, GW 2 1/4, NWAC 30+, PTEK 18+, ABY 11+, AHG 13+, FLS 18-, HPH 11, LFB 14-, PPP 15+, WLM 12+, SRR 13+, MCH 25, BHI. 27+, ELY 14, CAI/B 46, ETN 90, N. 17, Z. 9+, TAM 11, CFK 2 7/8, ULB 3 3/4, BJS 26....all were specifically given herein near their lows....wow....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some
subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, HCM 4 5/8 up 5/8, FRTE 4 7/8 up 1/2, SAMC 6 3/8 up 1/2, MCL 10 3/8 up 7/8, NPSI. 14, HIV, MXTR, CNU, BCP, CWC, AFCI., FCN 3 3/4 up 1/2, APFC, RJF, ORI., OCN, BIO/A, APM, TXB, SAP, RTC, FNL, HDG, COE, BDT, TAROF, CCH....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) (note, this list is still Shrinking, get it ?) RDRT, CNU, ORCL, CDV, NPRO, AFCI., APFC, EAR, FNL, RYO, BLM, ECO, DAY, ORI., TBP, BGO, SAP, MCL, CAU, MSN, AM, cheap golds....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On next Weakness,
towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously long Puts right
near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned,
for Your Benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little
time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....
let them do their thing.
**** for the last time: you MUST always view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....note, how, SEPR, CMGI., ELNK, YHOO, CSCO, fell to their 50 DMA, and, VMC, CLFY, BOBJ, CLX, CNCX, VNWK, CTAS, GENZ, NEG, LLY, SEEK, VRTS, fell towards their 200 DMA's....and, OSI., approaches its 200 DMA....
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow): (some new names here) many, many bounces: remember, as I
have been saying, almost all Puttables must, still, break below their recent
lows, as "follow-through", obviously, including, SPLN +7, -6, VISX +28, -19, AMZN +25, -15, CL +5 5/8, VNWK +1 1/2, -2 1/2 (sow), YNR +3, OK -1 3/4, HRL -1 1/4, CREE -1 1/2, SYY, MTNT -1 1/2, AXTI. +2 1/2, XOMD, FTEN, AGPH -2 1/2, COX +5, -2, CNMD -2, TR -1, MSS, LLL +1 1/2, PMI. +1, -1, VCELA, IPG +2, MEG/A +1 1/2, COST, PMI. +1 1/2, TI. +3, RG -1, VCI., ER -2, +1 1/2....
again, we need to see many stocks break below recent lows/necklines, and, so
far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)"
sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn patterns from.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
*** Note, these lists are shrinking....
Prec.Metals (GSR, NGX, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DRFNY, AVGLY, DAY, AZC, BGO, all real cheapies, riskier, most need more work/time)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Copper) (RTC, FNL, NSD)
Energy and Oil Svc. (UMR, EEX, MHR, SEV, etc., near their recent lows Only, and, more stocks, as below, on bigger pullbacks, ahead)
Biotech/Health/Medical (BAL, FHCC, TXB, HIV, EAR)
"Staffing/Employment" (JOB, MMWW, OLS, UWW, ASIS, NRL, PGA, ASF, may be too late for some already)
Computer Memory Devices (APM, MXTR, WDC, RDRT, IOM) (may need work/time)
other Computer/Techs: (ATV, WTT, MTSI., CELL, ANDW, note, fewer now)
R.E.I.T./finance/Healthcare/title biz./Utilities, potential high-yield-plus (add, CIN, PPL, GPU, AHE, NCE, PNW, PPW, NHI., to, SMT, BGE, BOY, DTE, OHI., CEI., TPP, TRI., KE, HCR, TCO)....note, this I.G. sectio is growing !
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy
list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": none, --- were taken Off ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly ....for one thing, we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first, and/or more fully formed "bases", yes ?
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double" bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, AMD, AN, ARM, ASL, CIN, GEMS, HOC, LFG, MNY, MWY, MXG, NHP, PAH, PGA, PNW, PPW, PSEM, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) AAC, ABH, ADGO, AIMM, APM, BAL, BDT, BKI., BMC, BYX, CDV, CEXP, CNU, CWC, DHC, DRFNY, DTE, EAR, ESH, FAF, FCN, FHCC, FLH, FLM, FNF, FRTE, GDC, GRERF, HDG, HEC, HLX, HM, HMT, HNV, IGT, IO., IOM, ISSI., JH, KEG, KNE, LXR, MIDI., MLT, MSN, OCN, OMX, PAGE, PENN, POM, PRD, PZN, RLC, RML, RRC, SAMC, SAP, SCY, SCZ, SGU, SHOW, SOC, SSN, SWW, TBP, TIE, TTRIF, TWA, VMRX, XTR, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....
New, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: add, AM, IBP, REL, NETA, CBRL, CAG, MWHS, IFMX, to, KMAG, SFSK, MANH, CHY, SHG, LDW, TRI., WLT, WWW, WDC, GHV, OMM, TCO, NR, NOV, PAA, KE, ISSI., IPIC, CPU, LWN, MLHR, as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....again, NOT Yet, but just to briefly give you an idea of what may be coming....oh, and some "Food-oriented' stocks should begin to bottom ahead, just watching for now........
note: more Energies, Utilities, Healthcare, Funeral, stocks added....
and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force"
trades....
Remember, this is primarily just a "watching to possibly buy" list !!! They only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, when/if they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....note, we re-added some previously given names, above here....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Medical: AGPH, GENZ, GNE, BGEN, AMGN, etc.
Internet-oriented: YHOO, AMZN, AOL, etc.
Telecom, Cellular, Cable, Commun.: CMVT, COX, RG, TI., etc.
Retail: CM, LOW, WTSLA, etc.
(all other "techs/computer-oriented, etc." are in lists below here, though, "computer enterprise software" stocks seem especially toppy)
**** some new ones (half of these are repeated from last time here, and I
have removed those 'already down'): added, ADVP, ARMHY, AUD, AWRE, BMET, BVEW, DAL, DCLK, DY, EBAY, EXDS, FM, FS, GBLX, GILTF, GMST, GNET, INKT, INSP, LVCI., LZRC, MEL, MFST, MNMD, MPH, MUSE, NDN, NKE, NZT, ORLY, POWI., PSUN, QCOM, QRSI., SANM, SCAI., SWC, TCAT, TFSM, TJX, TOM, TSM, UIHIA, USAI., VRSN, YUM, WCOM, to,
("repeats") ABOV, AMAT, AOL, BSYS, BSX, BTY, BUD, CMNT, CREE, EL, ER, GILTF, HTN, KIDE, MCD, METNF, MKL, MLNM, MNMD, MSS, MTP, NTLI., ODP, ORBK, PMI., RGIS, ROST, RNWK, SBA, TECH, UNFY, VISX, VLSI., VNWK, VOD, WTSLA....Note, list is growing again, adding many "Internet EVT's"....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: added, "Laser Vision", some Airlines ?, to, Online Brokerage and Banking, Retail, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Insurance/Finance, Entertainment, Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and all Tele.-Commun., near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW LESSON: A surprisingly valuable article on "risk" in everyday life, in Parade Mag., 4/18....among the points made, were 4 which I teach in my "Psychology" booklet, worth reiterating here:
a) "be aware that correlation may not equal causation"....often, suggestions of possible connections between things, upon research, finds NONE, historically....
b) "use percentages in risk ratios, not absolute numbers"....many things 'appear' to be more risky, or moving more, but, in historical fact, are not....
c) "do not take drastic action on preliminary information"....new 'studies' come out daily....most 'conclusions' are preliminary at best, and/or "one-time" instances, and don't stand up in fact, over time....
d) "relax....the world seems riskier than ever, but it's not"....people and things are much better off now, in many ways, than decades ago, etc., and most things remain, as they have always tended to be....
Just a few Philosophical things to remember....from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v.
* The following several paragraphs are in every NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding, and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops, and July '98 tops, and drops, have
proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my
main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match
my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously,
have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things,
properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you
actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE
you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows,
for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming
you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from
the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....