1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Investors Intelligence's (I just love that term, a real oxymoron) indicator, of the "Percentage of all stocks above their 10-wk. and 30-wk. Moving Averages" recently gave a buy signal, due, as I predicted, to the larger number of still-depressed stocks rising off bases and EVB's in 'catch-up' moves....More proof of, not only, the power of my "PSYCLE sm" patterns, but also, of the S.T. "shift" within the markets, towards the laggards, and away from the extended issues....But, of course, many are already up, and must pull back anyway, if those are going to attempt higher rises later, yes ?
Also, Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL
applicable, staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable,
"PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever
I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of,
for YOUR educational/trading benefit....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And note, the "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in sections (2). Longer
lists and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7)....and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). If you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you can chosse to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage.
Obviously, if "YOU" choose not to want certain types of stocks/plays, like real cheapies, or Puts, etc., or YOU choose not to learn how to do certain things better, it is your choice to do so, but realize, that other valued subscribers DO want them. You have to weigh, your time, against the significant value of learning my patterns of lifetime benefit. There ARE more than a few subscribers who are even successfully trading some of the stocks I 'miss' herein, because THEY are VIEWING the charts....'nuff said.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?): 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) first, most all Internet stocks already fell towards their still-existing "necklines" and/or MA's, technically, and must break further....hence the "1/2 pos.(ition)" sales in sec. (3).... 2) the DJ. Util Avg. up from 292 to 304 (beginning of S.T. resistance already) by Tue. high.... 3) note the pops, as I was, again, the first/only to predict, among depressed Hospitals/REIT's, lately....you're welcome....as I pointed out in that sec. (6) list, they were big dividends, PLUS stock price rise....nifty.... 4) note recent rises among our previously-depressed "Staffing/Employment" stocks, which I was, again, the first and certainly only, to have given out near lows recently....you could have caught some, and we just missed some, but we WERE right on.... 5) hope you knew/know to sell many of the Cyclicals I gave you near their lows, into their recent too much/too soon, semi-parabolic, over-reported-by-the-media rises, dig ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, or improper comments from the Financial
Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) from the man who hurts his viewers, and station, by treating me badly, and neverv learning anything about investing, then asks me to teach him my "PSYCLE sm" then never calls me, Richard Saxton, KWHY-tv, Tue. 20th, 8:35 am, tried to quip, "wonder what makes cyclical stocks "sick-lical"....keep on wondering in ignorance, guy...."PSYCLE sm" tip: when a reporter uses a negative pun (i.e., "sick" for "cyc") that meant the item in question was depressed when he said it, dig ? (and vice versa, when/if extended). There are reasons why he told me he is upset, bitter, and jealous that has never made much money, and knows not how to predict future price moves, in the very market which he has "covered" for years....and his attitude and lack of care about others, are two of them.... 2) the latest dumb comment from Bob Pisani., CNBC, Tue. 20th, 11 am, "anyone who would have said Crude Oil would have gone from 12 to 18, would have been thought crazy back then ....no one did." WRONG....I did, and I was, and you are dangerous and thoughtless .... 3) after the close, Fri. 16th, CNBC ran headline for story: "Amazon Bull" ....more famous last words ? ....4) CNBC's Joe Kernan, Wed. 21st, 7:45 am, incorrectly said the "semiconductor-related stocks" were "flying" ("oooh....wow", etc.), when, in fact, having nothing more than normal, S.T. oversold bounces, and most all remain plenty below their highs, yes ? ....5) beyond the emotion of the rare, terrible story about school shooting in Colo., it is still nasty and sensationalizing and incorrect, that NBC's reporter on "20/20" Tues. night 20 th, said, "our schools are turning into killing fields", and, "we have an epidemic of school violence." Separating how awful such an event is, their statements are nowhere near accurate, and are irresponsible-- but, of course, that's what most major news, is.... 6) CNBC's O'Brien/Bauman, Wed. 9:45 am, actually said, "we may be seeing something of a potential resurgence, possibly", in "PSFT" stock....maybe ? somehting of ? potential ? possibly ? gee, don't be too definitive....and certainly don't mention the chart pattern, guys.... that would be too helpful....P.S., I am adding "PSFT" as an EVB, finally....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.:
1) Tue. Citigroup trumpeted higher eps, raised its div., spliting --- and it's stock does NOT make a new high....in fact, a possible one-year-back triple-top ? ....2) Tue., note "RYC" ann. much lower eps, yet its stock, which I gave you here in beautiful S.T. base long at lows, INTO "bad fundamentals", had risen a bunch VQ....as I have taight countless times, good technicals, beats any fundamentals, the vast majority of the time.... 3) O.C. Register, 4/18, "Many investment-club portfolios have Intel inside": the N.A.I.C. ranked the top holdings of 6,000 (out of 37,000) investment clubs, and INTC was held by the most, followed by PEP, and MRK, MYL, HNZ, CNG, recently....each held by over 12,000 clubs, milions of shares, etc. You tell me how they have done, long-term, and the past year....and if any have, or will, sell anywhere near tops....
d) more, late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) some B-firms are coming out with reiterated "buys" on some Internet stocks after recent pullbacks..."necklines", remember ? Don't kid yourself, as I mentioned here recently, they are facing "pressure", and also, they often continue to buy all late "stage 3/early stage 4" stocks, trying to "talk-keep" them up to their clients, as they often privately sell them....dig ? ....2) Jim Dines, KWHY-tv, Tue. 11:50 am, "this is just the bgeinning of a roaring bull market for stocks....oils, blue chips, cyclicals, have just begun to break out....the bears have nothing left to stand on.....even their precious A/D line is improving ....there are no bearish indicators anywhere...." He remains hugely bullish on the Internets as well.... 3) Wed. 21st, Robertson-Stephens finally lowered their rating, on "MU", right near its 200 DMA support, after holding it much of the way down....way to go, guys....don't learn chart patterns....
e) 1) you'll love this one: I forgot to tell you last time, that one of my oldest "friends", who never let me make him money when I was a L.T. broker, never did anything I mentioned, and never got my NL even though it was so inexpensive, told me Sunday 18th, that, last week, he "finally broke down and bought AOL on margin"....neat, huh.... 2) another "too late for R.E. sign": the first "hammering people to buy So. Calif. R.E. now" show on KWHY-tv, has appeared, 4/20....They said, "this is the best time to buy R.E., in 10 years".... wrong ....The actual "best" recent time to have bought So. Calif. R.E., was very early 1997, when I called the bottom, yes ? Prices are already way up, yes ? He also said, "this is very, very early in the cycle"....wrong....It is late in the "PSYCLE sm", partly because one only hears such things said, AFTER a big rise, right ? And last, during his sales pitch, he was making a "possiible" 10 % growth seem as if it was fantastic or something....certainly stretching, something we also normally hear late in the stage....remember, it is always easier to sell an item, psychologically, after it has been rising, right ? ....
3) read this one carefully: a three-parter: a compatriot of mine in the industry has a close friend who has been fortunate to have worked AT "Schwab" for 12 years now....he handles "problem accounts" in Newport Beach, Ca. (big money, if you are not from here) , and told my buddy, he's seeing growing numbers of daytrader-type guys, getting their $ 30-40-50 K accts. totally wiped out by recent action, mostly in correcting sexy stocks, margined, etc.--- and that was before this week....He said about 30 people recently, which is a lot, for just one branch office.... 4) he also had- get this- $ 1.5 million of Schwab stock, accumulated, held, ridden up all the way, until lately, in his ESOP there....Of course, my friend, a subscriber who knows some of the basics of my "PSYCLE sm", has been unable to get this guy to sell even one single share into the parabolic top.....why ? because, as this guy told him, "are you kidding ? Schwab is growing like crazy....and we're just beginning to expand into Europe...." GET IT ? this is normal, perfect future-give-money-back behavior.... yes ? So many holders of stock in their own company 'all, this time, without hedging, lighteneing up, selling any", are likely to give a lot back, off recent highs, into the summer....remember, the vast majority of them NEVER learn....and only got "lucky" in the first place (which is fine sometimes, of course).... 5) last, in my buddy's moneymgmt. office, he noticed, just recently, two secretaries, on relatively low salaries, who had NEVER invested/traded before, "just" bought some Internet stocks....and, every little price move, they are going nuts, happy, then sad, etc., during the day, to the point where, he tells me, it is affecting their work already....dig ?
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "Covered
(previous) Short Sale", where no puts options existed....
35 more Q, Large % Gains for you....please read slowly, carefully: calls COL (18- to 27+) for Q 350% Gain....bal. puts SEEK (88- to 46) for VVQ 350% Gain....calls MEA (29+ to 39+) for VQ 225% Gain....calls SWK (24- to 33++) for VQ 300% G....puts VRTS (88 to 61+) for Q 250% G....bal. calls RYC (23 to 32++) for Q 325% G....bal. calls FJ (29+ to 40-) for VQ 200% G....bal. calls KMT (17- to 23++) for VQ 200% G....bal. calls ICI. (33- to 44) for 200% G ....puts ELNK (96 to 60) for Q 200% G....1/2 pos. calls BS (8- to 10+) for 200% G....bal. calls RT (15- to 21+) for Q 175% G....bal. puts W. (23+ to 29-) for VQ 166% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. XTO (5 1/8 to 10) for 150% G....puts SYKE (32 to 22+) for Q 150% G....1/2 pos. puts SPLN (55 to 37) for VVQ 133% G....stk.on.mgn. AG (6 to 9++) for 111% G....puts AMGN (80- to 61) for VQ 125% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. UPR (8+ to 13+) for 111% G....1/2 pos. puts AMZN (191 to 156) for VVQ 111% G....puts ODP (25+ to 19-) for VVQ 111% G....bal. puts BGEN (119 to 91+) for VQ 111% G....and, more, wow:
(cont'd.) calls CYM (9+ to 14+) for Q 111% G....1/2 pos. calls PCAR (40+ to 50+) for Q 111% G....puts COX (78+ to 67-) for 111% G....calls OS (9++ to 14+) for Q 100% G....1/2 pos. calls BGP (14 to 17+) for VQ 100% G....1/2 pos. calls WYG (8+ to 11+) for VQ 111% G....1/2 pos. puts RTRSY (96+ to 80-) for 100% G....1/2 pos. puts VISX (135+ to 111+) for VVQ 90% G....1/2 pos. calls SAP (25 to 31) for VQ 100% G....puts OSI. (31- to 25+) for VQ 90% G.... 1/2 pos. puts VOD (196+ to 171+) for VVQ 90% G....calls PMA (42+ to 50-) for Q 100% G....1/2 pos. calls ASA (16 to 18) for VVQ 80% G....bal. calls AR (13++ to 17+) for VQ 100% G....1/2 pos. puts LOW (65 to 56) for VQ 90% G....1/2 pos. calls FNF (15- to 19-) for VVQ 90% G.... bal. calls NEM (17- to 21) for VVQ 90% G....puts IPG (78+ to 71) for 75% G....1/2 pos. puts BUD (78+ to 71+) for VQ 70% G....stk.on.mgn. LTV (5+ to 8-) for Q 80% G....css EFAX (32- to 20) for VVQ 70% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. BMC (4+ to 6++) for VQ 66% G....1/2 pos. stock HLX (4+ to 7+) for VQ 66% G....1/2 pos. puts MEG/A (50 to 45) for 55% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. FAF (14- to 18-) for VVVQ 55% G.... 1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. LKI. (7 1/8 to 9+) for Q 55% G....stk.on.mgn. OHI. (21+ to 26-) for VQ 33% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. AGU (8 to 9++) for VQ 33% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. SCZ (12+ to 15-) for 40% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. BIO/A (20+ to 23++) for VQ 25% G....bal. puts XOMD (40 to 35 to 37) for VQ small % G....and, of course, we still have other big % long-side 'paper gains', some very likely to be taken, when into S.T. semi-parabolic rises, very soon.... remember, we tend to be more Conservative in taking quick, large gains....
and/but, longs, RDRT, MLT, APM, and, puts, WTSLA, ATXI. (22+ to 19+ to 23), POWI., PSUN, PMI., SWC, OK, CL, for very quick, very small losses, of little overall consequence to a properly diversified portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy any Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their
patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just
buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with
less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent,
for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions"
have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(new ones) GDC @ 2 1/4, IFMX @ 7+, KMAG @ 3 13/16, 1/2 pos. LWN @ 1., NTN @ 5/8, PNW @ 37+, 1/2 pos. PRD @ 20-, WDC @ 6 13/16, WH @ 16-,
"Repeats" (Note --- this list is shrinking again): ADGO @ 3 3/4, AIMM @ 1 15/16, AM @ 23+, ATV @ 1 1/4, AZC @ 9/16, BAL @ 2+, BDT @ 3, BGO @ 5/8, CAU @ 0.20, CCH @ 0.28, CNU @ 0.46, CPU @ 6, DAY @ , EAR @ 9/16, ECO @ 1 11/16, ESC @ 10, ESH @ 5.06, FHCC @ 15 3/16, FNL @ 5, GDC @ 2 3/16, GEMS @ 4-, GRERF @ 0.28, GSR @ 3/4, JOB @ 4 3/16, NGX @ 0.53, ORCL @ 23+, PAGE @ 4-, SAP @ 25+, SCY @ 4.06, SGU @ 14+, SOC @ 5+, SWW @ 2 3/16, UMR @ 11/16, VGZ @ 0.175....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds...."buy low", right ?
Longsiders that seem(ed) to look the best, technically (where suitable, near their lows ONLY, and/but do NOT ignore all the others, some of which may look better in betweeen NL's....with NO guarantees, close stops, always diversified): in NO particular order: FHCC, SWW, WTT, PAGE, ASPT, ADGO, BDT, ESH, SFSK, near recent lows, ONLY....as maybe the best bases (others are EVB's).... LEARN, by VIEWING their patterns, dammit ! There are, of course, many others that also look VG technically, so view ALL charts of all ideas given in sec. (3) and sec. (6) as well....do it piecemeal, if needs be....others previously given are already up....but I may soon remove this item again....oh, and maybe the best Puttables, are: ORBK, HTN, DY, ORLY, MNMD, EL, ? note, fewer "great longs" again....
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein,
countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT
"just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some
stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes
over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at
times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up
those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for
you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already
moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many
subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and
there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching"
NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly:
the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, NETA, TPP, PPW, LXR, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks, some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL. LEARN the patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol: (new ones) BJ @ 28+, DCLK @ 145+, GNET @ 190, MNMD @ 58-, TER @ 60, TSM @ 26-,
(and, note, some "new" Repeats again) BMET @ 44+, DY @ 44-, EL @ 94-, ER @ 73, FM @ 25++, FTEN @ 41+, HRL @ 37-, HTN @ 46, METNF @ 54-, MSS @ 8, ORBK @ 49-, ORLY @ 49, ROST @ 45, SBA @ 26+, SYY @ 29-, TI. @ 110+, TR @ 46+, VLSI. @ 19+, YNR @ 43,
and/but, took, ARMHY, MCRL, SONE, IMNX, QCOM, MUSE, AUD, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....any new highs = off the puts list....
IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web
site, a stock might break its extended S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed
EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy, or
put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still Added, as above....So I
am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying
any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and
therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted....this takes
just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues
which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then
incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the process is Your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", VMRX, CEXP, SAFC, CHY, SSM, MXG, PPL, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, GILTF, UIHIA, SCAI., as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs.... Every single stock here was specifically given herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
remember, you had several opportunities to buy almost all my stocks near their lows: lots more big % winners for you lately:
NSD 5 1/8 up 1 7/8, GDC 2 7/8 up 3/4, HDG 1 1/4 up 1/4, HIV 2 1/2 up 1/2, BBA 6 1/2 up 1 1/4, SAP 30 5/8 up 6, TMAR 8 up 1 1/2, IFMX 8 3/4 up 1 5/8, ASPT 7 up 1, COL 27 1/4 up 4 1/8 (S), GEMS 4 3/8 up 1/2, ARW 17 1/2 up 2 5/8, AAC 6 5/8 up 7/8, EEX 6 7/8 up 1, WDC 7 1/2 up 7/8, MLP 12 1/2 up 1 1/8, SFSK 9 1/2 up 7/8, DSGIF 4 3/8 up 3/8, FLM 9 up 1/2, BS 10 7/8 up 3/4, ANDW 14 5/8 up 1 3/8,
(cont'd.) MT 13 3/8 up 7/8, AM 25 1/8 up 1 3/4, FNF 19 up 1 1/4, PLL 18 7/8 up 1, PNW 39 1/2 up 2 3/4, PZN 20 3/8 up 1 1/2, OHI. 26 up 1 3/8, WLV 26 3/8 up 1, ICI. 45 3/8 up 1 3/4 (S), OS 14 5/8 (S), MMWW 15 9/16, FHCC 16 3/8, SAMC 6 5/8, ASA 18 3/8, W. 29 1/8 (S), FWC 16, HMT 13 1/4, BGE 28 1/8 (sos), SYC 14 3/8, FTR 13 1/4, SCZ 15, BMC 6 7/8 (S), LKI. 9 1/4 (S), BOY 14 1/2, XTO 10 1/4 (S), NEM 22 1/8, DGN 11 3/8, KNE 21 3/4, PAA 18 7/8, WWW 11 3/8, RT 21 1/4 (S), IV 17 7/8 (sos), WH 16 3/8, FLH 10 1/8, SGU 14 1/2, SUB 40 5/8, BCP 5 7/8, TBP 5 5/8, TKN 8 5/8, UQM 5 3/4, VOO 6 5/8, PAA 18 1/2, TE 21 5/8, BMC 7, up/further, just since last time here....
*** note, how, PMA, TXI., AGU, WLM, rose to their 200 DMA....and, WYG, HLX, XTO, LKI., AR approach(ed) their 200 DMA....and, FNF, hit 50 DMA....and, as with the Oil Service stocks a little while ago, many other "cyclicals" I gave you herein, have reached their previous "stage 1 tops" resistance levels, dig ?
for the last time: also, note, these rose even higher, as secondary moves (late stage 2 action ?): MIDI. 4 1/2 wow, then 1 1/2, IDTC 30+, CSE 34, HPC 34+, DE 46, OXY 20+, WND 10 3/4, PKX 30- wow, FCH 25, GW 2 1/4, NWAC 30+, PTEK 18+, ABY 11+, AHG 13+, FLS 18-, HPH 11, LFB 14-, PPP 15+, WLM 12+, SRR 13+, MCH 25, BHI. 27+, ELY 14, CAI/B 46, ETN 90, N. 17, Z. 9+, TAM 11, CFK 2 7/8, ULB 3 3/4, BJS 26, HPK 12+, NOI. 14+, NX, HCC....all were specifically given you herein near their lows....wow....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some
subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, FRTE 6 up 1 1/2, NSD 3 1/2 up 1/2, MRVC 8 7/8 up 1 1/4, FAF 15 7/8, 17 1/4, RJF 21 1/4 up 2, GDC 2 1/4, 2 5/8, BGP 14 1/4, dn 3 1/2, ORCL 24 7/8 up 1 3/8, WS 2, HCM 4 3/4, ASPT 6 1/2, SEV, MXTR, HCM, SYBS, BXH, NPSI., AGU, WYG, AOI., CNU, BCP, CWC, AFCI. 6 7/8, FCN, APFC, AGU, OMM, MMWW, JOB, ORI., OCN, BIO/A, CPU, TXB, RTC, FNL, COE, TAROF, CCH ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) (note, this list is still Shrinking, get it ?) PAGE, MXTR, AIMM, CNU, ORCL, CDV, NPRO, AFCI., APFC, EAR, FNL, RYO, BLM, ECO, DAY, BGO, SWW, FLM, MCL, CAU, MSN, AM, BS, cheap golds....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
note how many "internets" fell right to their MA's, and stopped, S.T.: YHOO, VRTS, AOL, ODP, SYKE, NSOL, fell to their 200 DMA....and, UNPH, AWRE, ABOV, RNWK, ARMHY, fell to their 50 DMA....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On next Weakness,
towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously long Puts right
near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned,
for Your Benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little
time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....
let them do their thing.
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow): (some new names here) many, many bounces: remember, as I
have been saying, almost all Puttables must, still, break below their recent
lows, as "follow-through", obviously, including, AMZN +35, -7, SANM +8, VISX +14, EL -5, +6, -1, COST -3, +8, CREE +2, FM +2 1/2, FTEN -1 3/4, +2, ORLY +2, -2, +2, BUD +2 1/2 (sow), KIDE +2, -1, YNR, HRL, SYY -1, MTNT -1 1/2, +1 1/2, CM +1 1/2, SBA, XOMD +2 (S), CNMD, TR, MSS, VCELA -1, BMET +2, MEG/A, ROST +1, -1 3/4, MCD +1 1/2, VCI....getting many more of those wicked bounces....
again, we need to see many stocks break below recent lows/necklines, and, so
far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)"
sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn patterns from.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
*** Note, these lists are shrinking....
Prec.Metals (GSR, NGX, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DRFNY, DAY, AZC, BGO, all real cheapies, riskier, most need more work/time)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Copper) (RTC, FNL)
Energy and Oil Svc. (UMR, EEX, MHR, SEV, etc., near their recent lows Only, and, more stocks, as below, on bigger pullbacks, ahead)
Biotech/Health/Medical (BAL, FHCC, TXB, HIV, EAR)
"Staffing/Employment" (JOB, OLS, UWW, ASIS, NRL, PGA, ASF, may be too late for some already)
Computer Memory Devices (MXTR, WDC, IOM) (may need work/time)
other Computer/Techs: (ATV, WTT, MTSI., CELL, note, fewer now)
R.E.I.T./finance/Healthcare/title biz./Utilities, potential high-yield-plus (add, CIN, PPL, GPU, AHE, NCE, PNW, NHI., NHP, to, SMT, BGE, BOY, DTE, OHI., CEI., TRI., KE, HCR, TCO)....note, this I.G. sectio is growing....
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy
list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": NETA, TPP, PPW, LXR, --- were taken Off ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly ....for one thing, we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first, and/or more fully formed "bases", yes ?
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double" bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, ARM, ASL, BFO, GLDR, HOC, LFG, MNY, MWY, MXG, PSEM, PSFT, SAFC, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) ABH, ADGO, AIMM, AMD, AN, AVGLY, BAL, BDT, BGP, BKI., BYX, CDV, CEXP, CNU, CWC, DHC, DRFNY, EAR, ESH, FCN, FHCC, FLM, FRTE, GDC, GEMS, GRERF, HDG, HEC, HM, HNV, IO., IOM, KEG, KNE, MIDI., MSN, OCN, OMX, PAGE, PAH, PENN, PGA, PRD, SAMC, SCY, SGU, SHOW, SOC, SSN, SWW, TBP, TIE, TTRIF, TWA, XTR, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....
New, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: AM, REL, CBRL, CAG, KMAG, DGN, SFSK, MANH, CHY, LDW, TRI., WLT, WDC, GHV, TCO, NR, NOV, PAA, KE, ISSI., IPIC, CPU, LWN, as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....again, NOT Yet, but just to briefly give you an idea of what may be coming....oh, and some "Food-oriented' stocks should begin to bottom ahead, just watching for now........
note: more Energies, Utilities, Healthcare, Funeral, stocks added....
and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force"
trades....
Remember, this is primarily just a "watching to possibly buy" list !!! They only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, when/if they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....note, we re-added some previously given names, above here....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Medical: AGPH, GNE, etc.
Internet-oriented: YHOO, AMZN, AOL, etc.
Telecom, Cellular, Cable, Commun.: CMVT, RG, TI., etc.
Retail: CM, LOW, etc.
(all other "techs/computer-oriented, etc." are in lists below here, though, "computer enterprise software" stocks seem especially toppy)
**** some new ones (half of these are repeated from last time here, and I
have removed those 'already down'): added, CNET, to, ADVP, AWRE, BMET, DAL, DCLK, DY, EBAY, EXDS, FM, FS, GBLX, GMST, GNET, IBM, INKT, INSP, LVCI., MEL, MNMD, MPH, NDN, NKE, NZT, ORLY, QRSI., SANM, SCAI., TCAT, TFSM, TJX, TOM, TSM, UIHIA, USAI., VRSN, YUM, WCOM, to,
("repeats") AMAT, AOL, BSYS, BSX, BUD, CMNT, EL, ER, GILTF, HTN, KIDE, METNF, MKL, MLNM, MNMD, MSS, MTP, NTLI., ORBK, PMI., RGIS, SBA, TECH, VLSI....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: added, "Laser Vision", some Airlines ?, to, Online Brokerage and Banking, Retail, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Insurance/Finance, Entertainment, Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and all Tele.-Commun., near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW LESSON: I guess the major recent lessons, are,
not to quit a great timing/choosing concept prematurely,
take the time to view, and learn the chart patterns,
sell into semi-parabolic rises off bottoms,
sometimes several related I.G.'s give us a bigger picture of future trends,
do not ignore the Put-side,
most people in all Media are Less nice, knowledgeable, helpful, than they should be.
* The following several paragraphs are in every NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding, and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops, and July '98 tops, and drops, have
proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my
main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match
my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously,
have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things,
properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you
actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE
you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows,
for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming
you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from
the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....