1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) I will remind y'all I was, again, as usual, the first/only to give out Steel stocks at lows, all up nicely now.... 2) and, I was certainly the ONLY (and first) to give out Ratil/Apparel stocks herein for you from recent lows.... 3) and looks like I may be wrong for VQ, VS. losses, in some Financials Puts, no damage....of courtse, stock traders could take that as a 'buy high, plan on higher' signal, and, confirmation of my 'not waiting for huge pullbacks, but keep buying depresseds in good "PSYCLE sm" patterns regardless', as well, yes ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) L.A.T. 4/20, chronicling the now 5 recent-past NASDAQ rallies 'during the bear market since 4/00', and the recent one, by them, was the same up + 30+ % as the may-July '00 rally....meaning, this may indeed be the real thing - after pullbacks, of course... 2) and every single mtg. guy I know (which is a lot), says that's it for lower mtg. rates, meaning, they will probably be wrong, dig ? I mean, these people have no perspective past a few days, dig ? and are the same people who were wrong all the way down in RE values from 1990 to 1995, and failed to foresee recent rate declines, etc. - take this as you wish....the previous 'low rate level' was in 8/1/99.... 3) in another late-as-usual headline, L.A.T. 4/22, "shakeout could be on the way for the PC industry", should have, of course, been published months ago when it might have helpoed save a trillion dollars for investors....but one analyst DID suggest some takeovers because of low stock prices....I agree....
4) as usual, CNBC finally mentioned recent strength in Steel stocks -which, as you know, i was, as usual, the first AND only guy to have given out herein near lows....you're welcome....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) front-page stories recently about how, supposedly, 'amrgin debt' fell the most in a long time, which, according to the reporters, signals that 'speculation is cooling' - when, in fact, it had already cooled, months ago, as usual, reported too late (don't get me started) ....."de-leveraging' is their term...'wrung out'....and lowers the likelihood of more margin calls', which would be anotther decent sign, as I have correctly been pointing out to you herein recently....as a % of mkt. value, margin debt is now down to its 3/99 levels, before the last parabolic rise in Internet/Techs....they also said, 'tax selling was already done', again, my agreement....both Schwab and Datek said mgn. debt is less than half its levels of a year ago....and, in a surprise, thay both said "there has been a sharp increase in new accounts and activity" recently....Exactly as I was among the very few to suggest, no selling, meant a rise-into-a-vacuum S.T. anyway, a tenet I teach in my Booklets for years....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) L.A.T 4/21, "Rally catches short sellers by surprise", gets published, as usual, only AFTER way up, yes ? the pattern rarely changes....there had been a record amt. of 'short int.' NASDAQ at the end of March - 3.6 billion shs. - we know not, April's figures, yet, but should be interesting to see if lower, dig ? their table titled, "Bear Swarm" showed NYSE shirt int. rising from 3.8 B shs. in Jan. '00, straight up to recent 5.4 B ....last, the writer said, "the rally may continue for a while, because more short sellers are likely to buy back still more positions, adding to buying pressure...." I agree - after pullbacks.... 2) as I see more and more major B-firms incorrectly loving them at highs, now lowering estimates/opinions on Tech. stocks, laughable....I need not report any of them any more herein to you....
3) hey, Tue., CNBC reported that Warren (late and overrated in recent years) Buffett, is only now buying some extended Utility stocks near highs....we shall see....gee, maybe we'll have to watch for him to finally begin buying extended Energy and Financial stocks, ay ?
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) interesting....with all the fearmongering, real and perceived, about negative Calif. stuff, why are Calif. G.O. and Orange County Munis prices NOT tanking ? why have they not tanked ? their Funds have, generally, gone in the last year, UP, about 9 %, then pulled back 4 %, but remain higher than at this time last year.... 2) once again, recent study of teens, showing their rampant financial ignorance, which, as always, I blame on bad parenting and scvhool systems....the quote from shocked surveyers, "teens don't understand that what they don't understand is real important" - agreed....'nuff said... 3) following-up on a story I have been reporting herein for years, real bad for cunsumers, decent for companies in the Broadcast biz, the FCC lifted still more bans on cross-network ownership....oy....still higer fees coming....
4) similarly, all I see everywhere are prices rising in all sorts of items, contrary to what one hears about 'no inlation ever'.... 5) and, exactly as I have been saying for decades, a recent supposedly big poll found over 50 % of Americans favoring Nuclear energy plants to help our energy crisis....God forbid politicians should do even one proper thing for us....Nuclear has always BEEN an answer, cleaner and safer than the Media and 'the 95%' incorrectly fear....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
all calls MGM (15+ to 19+) for Q 90% Gain....bal. stk.on.mgn. LU (7 to 11) for VVQ 111% G....1/2 pos. calls X (14+ to 18+) for Q 100% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. TMCS (8- to 12+) for Q 125% G....1/2 pos. stock MPS (3.85 to 5.15) for VVQ 35% G....
and/but, longs, FORR (20 to 26+ to 20-), CGO (26 to 29 to 26-), IMDC, and, puts, CECO, LTR, KPP, UNH ?, RJR, ASFC, SOTR, EXC ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/3 pos. LENS @ 6, 1/2 pos. MSLV @ 9++, 1/2 pos. MTP @ 11++, 1/2 pos. SHRP @ 8+,
1/2 pos. BKHM @ 4-, 1/2 pos. CLX @ 30+, 1/2 pos. CRO @ 7, 1/3 pos. MCSI. @ 14, 1/2 pos. UAXS @ 5, 2/3 pos. UTHR @ 11-,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): BCU @ 5/8, BLC @ 15+, BGO @ 0.405, CTC @ 12++, FNV @ 1.5, HLIT @ 4+, HNV @ 0.29, IBI. @ 15-, IOM @ 3+, KFY @ 15++, KGC @ 0.46, KRY @ 3/4, LTD @ 15+, NTOP @ 7+, STG @ 0.56, PPE @ 10-, SRM 12+, TEK @ 24+, TRLY @ 8+, VGZ @ 0.08, VOXX @ 7+...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, , Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.".... we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): ASD @ 59+, 1/3 pos. AYE @ 49+ ?, 1/2 pos. AZO @ 30-, CHIC @ 30+, 1/2 pos. CIN @ 35+, 1/2 pos. CNI. @ 38, ICCI. @ 28+, LHP @ 46+, 1/2 pos. UNM @ 30- ?, (note, JOE was never put)
1/2 pos. CEFT @ 45+, CV @ 16+, 1/3 pos. D. @ 70-, 1/2 pos. EAT @ 29+, PHCC @ 40+, ITG @ 55-, 1/2 pos. LHP @ 46+, PB @ 18-, 1/2 pos. PPDI. @ 56+, 1/2 pos. PX @ 48+, TOY @ 26,
"Repeats": CHD @ 25, CNT @ 47+, EXC @ 69, GCO @ 27-, KMI. @ 58++, LNCR @ 58++, ORI. @ 29+, PFGC @ 54+, SNV @ 28 no ?, SOTR @ 47, THC @ 47-, UVV @ 39++, WSC @ 311-,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, AZO ?, SCIO, CECO, MAY, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", TRAC, CLRS, LVLT, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, MAY, LOW, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs.... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.... again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern, more:
wow, what a continuing great recent period for us....having given you nice Gains for you, all through recent travails, ay ? :
TMCS 12.32 up 2.62 (sos), BELM 10.4 up 3.09, PGO 9.95 up 1.22, CTV 19.02 up 1.52, LU 11 1/4 up 1 (S), X. 19.0 up 2.35, AV 13.15 up 1.45, GTW 19.17 up 1.66, SRM 14.2 up 1.8, IBI. 16.0 up 1.5, DCLK 12.37 up 0.96, LENS 6.38 up 0.38, SHRP 9./08 up 0.75, MTP 12.65 up 1, LTD 16.87 up 1, BLC 17.3 up 1, UAXS 6.24, 5.10, 6.7, AKS 13.2, N. 17.9 (sos), MGM 19.42 (S), KFY 18.4, MPS 5 1/4, PPE 11.26, REMC 11, AV 11.7, CLX 31.95, PPE 11.5, MPH 18.5 up 1, TG 18.95, BCGI. 10.2, higher since last NL here....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
as expected, most all Techs, (giving you ample opp. to buy more !), UAXS 4.9, VOXX, PPE, MWBX, KRY, RCG, HA, HNV, GAB, VRA, BCU, FON, PHTN, PRIA, VRTA, NOPT, TSTN, NTOP, TRLY 8.3 (B), 8.9, HPOW, UAXS 4 3/4, BKHM 3.85 (B), 4.95, AWE 19 1/2, STTX, VGZ, TEK 24+ (B)....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) IOM 3.2, LNUX, CCRT, PAP, SNBC, INSP, KANA, LTD, IN, VOXX, CBJ, MPS, GRL 8.55 up 0.66, GSPN, STG....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
RE -8 (sow), GCO -1 1/2, TOY -1, ASD -2, LHP -1, CIN -1, ORI, lower since last NL here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (FRT, HCN, TCC, ARJ, TCO, JPR, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals/steel" (CAS (also nice pot. div.), CBJ, KRY, STTX, STLD, KGC, X, etc.)
depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, most Chem., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Papers, Apparel, Regional Banks/Finls.
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, emi., comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy), HWP, CLX, PRD, LUX, ADTK, ARBA ?, DZTK, ERICY, LENS, SCMR ?, SSSW, SONE, HLIT, GILTF ?, ITCD, LTBG, MFNX, ITWO, NMSS, INCY ?, LVLT, EAS, RSH, AV, MTP, PR, MSLV, to, RSTA, ACTM, ABSC, AWRE, PSEM, SRM, PWAV, PRIA, FINL, HELE, KNSY, BKHM, UAXS, CTS, TRLY, GM, ABF, BLC, GTS, MRD, NTT, VG, IBI, LTD, UTHR, RHAT, JDAS, BCGI, KFY, MPS, MLT, PPE, BKI, AWE, MGM, CTC, DCLK, VRTA, IOM, GSPN, EGLS, TSTN, HPOW, PPE, MPH, BELM, MPH, STLD, NTOP, TG, PDG, SVRN, CRDS, FNV, KGC, RCG, MWBX, TRAC, SNE, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, TRH, UNM, BWS, DJ. Util. Avg., CNI, BRK/B, SCIO ?, CEFT, AZO ?, STR ?, PL, WTM ?, AME, UNT, TOY, NOC, LTR, ITT ?, SNV, BJ, AYE, ASD, EPG, CIN, DVA, ECLP, ESRX, BKNG, EAT, BNI, LOW, to, CHG, HCA, ORI, RJR ?, UVV, WSC, RE, PB, DEO, CHD, CBL, ABM, PHCC, ITG, ASFC, BSYS, CHIC, COCO, SOTR, HSIC, ASBC, GCO, LNCR, IVGN, CV, PPDI, PX, BRO, CNT, INSUA, MNI, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Loans, defense, Tobacco, Disc. Chains, S.E. Banks, HMO's/health care, wholesale food/bev., Aero./Def., Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services, Commercial Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Homes-related/bldg., Shoes/Apparel, Railroads, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES