1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Adding more Puttables, most previously given issues which have poulled back and rallied back towards highs again....I have been hearing more "lucky/smug" longside gains stories from neophytes and non-traders lately....This cannot last ....And the R.E. industry/media/people-pressure to "buy anything in So. Calif. at any price before things skyrocket again" smacks of evolving top in prices....with supply increasing in R.E., how are things in Your area ? Actually, if you think about it, the only equity area where supply has really been increasing big-time, is, of course, among the Web stocks, IPO's, aftermarket, etc. View the charts from sec. (7) below, of Web stocks, back 2 years if aplicable, and "see" the base, the rise to last Spring, the stage 2 drops into last Summer, the stage 3 rises to Jan./Feb. and drops, then, recently, the late stage 3 and 4 parabolic rises and recent congestion....
Except for a potential triple-bottom in the T-bond, I have NO other new words of wisdom, about "the market" here....
Also, Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL
applicable, staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable,
"PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever
I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of,
for YOUR educational/trading benefit....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And note, the "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in sections (2). Longer
lists and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7)....and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). If you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you can chosse to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage.
Obviously, if "YOU" choose not to want certain types of stocks/plays, like real cheapies, or Puts, etc., or YOU choose not to learn how to do certain things better, it is your choice to do so, but realize, that other valued subscribers DO want them. You have to weigh, your time, against the significant value of learning my patterns of lifetime benefit. There ARE more than a few subscribers who are even successfully trading some of the stocks I 'miss' herein, because THEY are VIEWING the charts....'nuff said.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?): 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) actually, not much to say today, given sec. (2) comments above....note several of our depresseds in the "pullback" and "ms/sos" parts of section (4) below, have also risen out of that state, a decent sign, in the recent "market groups shift" .... 2) is a potential triple-bottom forming in the T-Bond ? we have been pretty darn good predicting that contract for a while now.... 3) note, there are fewer "I.G.R." comments all-of-a-sudden, here.....this makes sense, given already-exploited moves, yes ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, or improper comments from the Financial
Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) L.A. Times, 4/4, "Softening Room rates in Las Vegas": I was first/only to predict, Spring 1998, at the probable real "top" in the "Las Vegas boom", that that city was finally beginning to 'overbuild' (as all "emotionally-based greedy entities" tend to do near tops, right ?)....Well, this article confirms that the bloom may be off the rose...room rates are leveling and/or falling, some building plans are being shelved for the first time in a while....the writer said, "until recently they have operated in a universe all their own: ever increasing, it seems....supply creates demand...." Huh ? Since when does more supply create more demand forever ? Anyway, watch for this reversal of trend to unfold....you heard it here first.... Avg. hotel occupancy fell, from 90.4 % in 1997, to 85.8 % in 1998....yes, I know, there have been, at times, problems in Asia....but nothing grows forever at the same high rate....The casino stocks had also fallen, before popping as predicted here near their lows....A likely sentiment top, also existed in 1997-1998, with tons of 'bullish forever' articles, and all my friends saying "no end to the high growth ever", remember ?
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.:
1) Note, I gave you both, DT, and TI., as puttables at their recent highs, herein, in sec. (7) earlier....they are supposedly merging....we'll watch to see whart emerges (hey, that's a pun)....the key, is to know, that I knew Nothing of any potential merger, I just saw the normal chart patterns.... 2) remember, the Hambricht & Quist Tech. stocks Conf. is this week, with the "possible" ? eps disappointment in AMZN ? we shall see....
d) more, late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) in one recent Barron's, on 4/7, said Salomon newly adding CDN @ 24+ (now 12), MER adding SNRZ @ 40- (now 42), First Union adding PVN @ 125 (now 132)....I only mention these just to reiterate how most B-Firms only add new buys, near highs, after huge rises....I know these are not many, but let's see how these do....probably not too well, especially compared to buying low.... 2) three big B-firms raised "LRCX" to Buy, Fri., yet all est. losses for the company....I gave you "LRCX" with other 'semis" near lows last Fall, remember ? well, LRCX is already $ 37., up from $ 9., a little late, yes ? ....3) Furman, Selz, finally added "TWX" to buy at 73., "based on great fundamentals and recent cable mergers"....also pretty late.... 4) Smith Barney, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley all lowered "IRID" to "no good", around $ 15., down from $ 70., gee, then it is probably close to bottoming, right ? ....5) Merrill raised our "FAF" to "accumulate" from "neutral"....We caught the low for you herein, and they buy higher, as usual....now, of course, I am looking to lighten up already, just as they begin to buy, dig ? ...6) O.C. Register, 4/25, evidently, mgrs. of some big Fidelity M. Funds trimmed their exposure in Tech. stocks, in the 1 Q of 1999, from 25.8 % at end of Dec. '98, to 20.9 %, in Tech. stocks, in their Magellan Fund, by end of March '99....They acknowledged that many of the stocks they cut back from, went higher after they sold.... 6) Peter Canelo, Morgan Stanley, reiterated his bullishness on Cyclical stocks....his original buy signal was 3-4- weeks ago....he says strength in them, into the 4th Q....I say, its way too late to "begin" buying them, wait for bigger pullbacks, at a minimum....
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
calls MAH (11- to 15+) for VQ 175% G....bal. calls WLV (19+ to 26) for Q 150% Gain....1/2 pos. calls IV (13+ to 18-) for 150% G....1/2 pos. calls FTR (11. to 14+) for VQ 111% G....1/2 pos. calls IGL (18+ to 24-) for Q 111% G....bal. calls FWC (12- to 16) for Q 100% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. TMAR (5- to 8+) for VQ 111% G....1/2 pos. calls BGE (25+ to 28) for VVQ 100% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. TKN (5+ to 8+) for 100% G....1/2 pos. calls HMT (11. to 13+) for VQ 100% G....bal. calls ASA (16 to 18+) for VVQ 80% G....1/2 pos. stock BBA (4- to 6+) for 55% G....1/2 pos. IGT (14+ to 17+) for VVQ 66% G....bal. puts MEG/A (50- to 45) for % G....1/2 pos. stock NSD (3.06 to 4++) for VQ 44% G....1/2 pos. stock AAC (3++ to 6+) for 66% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. UQM (4+ to 5++) for Q 40% G.... bal. calls ARG (8+ to 12-) for 70% G....1/2 pos. stock HCM (4 to 5++) for 33% G ....bal. stk.on.mgn. PAR (7+ to 10+) for 75% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. EEX (5 to 6++) for VQ 50% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. HLX (4+ to 6+) for Q 66% G....also refer back to last NL's sales here....
and/but, longs, MXTR, CWC, and, puts, METNF, EXDS, DCLK, MNMD, TCAT, YNR, DY, RG, bal. AMZN (191 to 156 to 192), for very quick, very small losses, of little overall consequence to a properly diversified portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy any Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their
patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just
buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with
less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent,
for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions"
have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(new ones) 1/2 pos. BGP @ 13++, 1/2 pos. IPIC @ 2 5/8, PFC @ 6 3/4, TTEC @ 6 11/16,
"Repeats" (Note --- this list is shrinking again): ADGO @ 3 9/16, AFCI. @ 7, AIMM @ 1 15/16, ATV @ 1 1/4, AZC @ 9/16, BAL @ 2+, BDT @ 3, BGO @ 5/8, CAU @ 0.20, CCH @ 0.28, CELL @ 6-, CNU @ 0.46, CPU @ 6-, DAY, DGN @ 10 1/8, EAR @ 9/16, ECO @ 1 11/16, ESH @ 5.06, FHCC @ 15 3/16, FNL @ 5, GDC @ 2 3/16, GEMS @ 3 7/8, GRERF @ 0.28, GSR @ 3/4, HDG @ 1.06, LWN @ 1., NGX @ 0.53, PAGE @ 4-, PRD @ 19 3/4, SCY @ 3 13/16, SGU @ 14+, SOC @ 5+, SWW @ 2 3/16, UMR @ 11/16, VGZ @ 0.175, WH @ 16-, WTT @ 1 5/8....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds...."buy low", right ?
Longsiders that seem(ed) to look the best, technically (where suitable, near their lows ONLY, and/but do NOT ignore all the others, some of which may look better in betweeen NL's....with NO guarantees, close stops, always diversified): in NO particular order: CELL, FHCC, SWW, WTT, PAGE, ASPT, ADGO, BDT, ESH, near recent lows, ONLY....as maybe the best bases (others are EVB's).... LEARN, by VIEWING their patterns, dammit ! There are, of course, many others that also look VG technically, so view ALL charts of all ideas given in sec. (3) and sec. (6) as well....do it piecemeal, if needs be....others previously given are already up....but I may soon remove this item again....oh, and maybe the best Puttables, are: ORBK, HTN, ORLY, MNMD, ARMHY, AGPH, MSS, FS, ENE, ? ....note, fewer "great longs" again....
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein,
countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT
"just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some
stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes
over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at
times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up
those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for
you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already
moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many
subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and
there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching"
NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly:
the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, , --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks, some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL. LEARN the patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol: (new ones) AFL @ 52+, AFS @ 45+, ARMHY @ 36+, ASML @ 47+, C. @ 75-, CNET @ 147, ENE @ 69+, GMST @ 110-, GNE @ 88-, GNET @ 190, PMI. @ 36, PSUN @ 38, SCAI. @ 62, SNTC @ 81, STT @ 91-, WKR @ 23++,
(and, note, some "new" Repeats again) ER @ 73, FM @ 26-, FTEN @ 41+, HRL @ 37-, MKL @ 183, ORBK @ 49-, ORLY @ 48-, SBA @ 26+, UIHIA @ 63+, VCELA @ 29, VLSI. @ 19+,
and/but, took, EBAY, NZT, NDN, NKE, VCI., Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....any new highs = off the puts list....
IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web
site, a stock might break its extended S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed
EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy, or
put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still Added, as above....So I
am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying
any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and
therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted....this takes
just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues
which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then
incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the process is Your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", COMS, ISSI., PGA, CHY, BFO, PAM, CAS, PMK, TCO, GHM, TWA, CS, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, ABOV, OSTE, ADVP, DISH, BBY, TSG, YUM, FLT, BK, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock here was specifically given herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
HIV 2 7/8 up 3/4, FAF 20 3/4 up 4 7/8, HCM 5 3/4 up 1 1/4, ARG 12 1/2 up 2 (S), FCN 4 up 3/4, FRTE 6 1/4 up 1 1/8, ESC 11 7/8 up 1 3/4, ORCL 29 up 4 1/8, SFSK 10 up 1 3/8, BDT 3 7/8 up 3/8, TAROF 6 1/8 up 5/8, COE 5 3/4 up 1/2, WWW 12 1/4 up 1, CELL 6 1/2 up 3/4, SYC 15 7/8 up 1 1/2, FTR 14 1/2 up 1, WDC 8 up 1/2, BIO/A 25 7/8 up 1 3/4, OMX 9 1/8 up 1/2, IGL 24 1/8 up 1 1/8, MMWW 15 5/8, NPRO 2 9/16, ANDW 15, BOY 15 1/4, PZN 20 5/8, FNF 19 1/2, SGU 15 1/8, MLP 12 7/8, FNF 19 7/8, KNE 22, FLH 10 1/4, XTR 41 1/4, TE 21 3/4, ARW 18, AM 26 1/8, UQM 5 7/8, BMC 7 1/8, VOO 6 7/8, ASPT 7, up/further, just since last time here....
also, see, PDE 10 1/2, HPK 13, COB 7 1/2, IMG 13, ULB 4+, CFK 3 1/4, PCAR 52, FLS 19 1/2, PPP 17, MCH 26+, ESV 17, N. 17+, MRL 14+, SRV 20, Z. 10, TOY 22, VTS 18, HET 23, HAL 44, LZ 26, SNT 35, ITN 12+, still higher....
also note, ANDW, HCM, LOD, PKD, KMG, PGO, HMT, FTR, OEI., FLC, KE, are approaching their 200 DMA....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some
subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, AOI. 3 1/2 up 1/2, RTC 5 up 1/2, CPU 6 3/8 up 1/2, RML 21 3/4 up 1 1/4, SAP 31 up 2 1/4, SFSK 9 1/8, ADGO, IPIC, AFCI. 8 1/4 up 1 1/4, IFMX 7 7/8, GEMS 4 3/8, 3 3/4, BCP 6, NSD, MRVC, GDC 2 5/8, BGP, WS, FAF, HDG, SEV, SYBS, BXH, NPSI., AGU, WYG, CNU, APFC, AGU, IGL, PNW, OMM, MMWW, JOB, ORI., OCN, ICO, TXB, FNL, CCH....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) (note, this list is still Shrinking, get it ?) RJF 21 1/2 up 1, KMAG, ADGO, IGT, SCY, PAGE, AIMM, CNU, CDV, NPRO, AFCI., APFC, MRVC, EAR, FNL, NSD, LWN, EEX, WIX, SOC, RYO, BLM, BKI., ECO, DAY, OMX, BGO, SWW, FLM, MCL, CAU, MSN, AM, BS, WH, cheap golds....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
also, see, NVLS, NEON, PFE, KR, fell to their 200 DMA....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On next Weakness,
towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously long Puts right
near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned,
for Your Benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little
time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....
let them do their thing.
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow): (some new names here) many, many bounces: remember, as I
have been saying, almost all Puttables must, still, break below their recent
lows, as "follow-through", obviously, including, BTY +11, DCLK +27, OCLI. +3, MEL +1, UIHIA +4, SANM +2, VISX +5, EL, COST -2, CREE -2, CMNT, FM -1, FTEN -1, SNTC -1, BUD +1 1/2, KIDE +1 1/2, MTNT -1 1/4, CM, SBA, MKL -1 1/2, CNMD +2, HTN +1, MCD -1, TI. -2, SYY....getting many more of those wicked bounces....
again, we need to see many stocks break below recent lows/necklines, and, so
far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)"
sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn patterns from.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
*** Note, these lists are shrinking....
Prec.Metals (GSR, NGX, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DRFNY, DAY, AZC, BGO, all real cheapies, riskier, most need more work/time)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Copper) (RTC, FNL)
Energy and Oil Svc. (UMR, MHR, SEV, KEG, etc., near their recent lows Only, and, more stocks, as below, on bigger pullbacks, ahead)
Biotech/Health/Medical (BAL, FHCC, TXB, HIV, EAR, AOI., SHG)
"Staffing/Employment" (JOB, OLS, UWW, ASIS, NRL, PGA, ASF, MPS, may be too late for some already)
Computer Memory Devices (WDC, IOM) (may need work/time)
other Computer/Techs: (ATV, WTT, MTSI., CELL, note, fewer now)
R.E.I.T./finance/Healthcare/title biz./Utilities, potential high-yield-plus (add, CIN, PPL, GPU, AHE, NCE, PNW, NHI., NHP, to, SMT, BOY, DTE, OHI., CEI., TRI., HCR, TCO)....note, this I.G. sectio is growing....
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy
list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": , , --- were taken Off ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly ....for one thing, we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first, and/or more fully formed "bases", yes ?
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double" bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, ARM, ASL, BMG, CS, GLDR, HOC, HS, LFG, MNY, MWY, MXG, PFC, PIR, PSEM, PSFT, QSII., SAFC, SCG, SPC, UDG, UFC, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) ABH, ADGO, AIMM, AMD, AN, AVGLY, BAL, BDT, BGP, BKI., BYX, CDV, CEXP, CNU, CPU, CWC, DHC, DRFNY, EAR, ESH, FCN, FHCC, FLM, GDC, GEMS, GRERF, HDG, HEC, HM, HNV, IO., IOM, IPIC, KEG, KNE, LWN, MIDI., MSN, OCN, OMX, PAGE, PAH, PENN, PGA, PRD, SAMC, SCY, SGU, SHOW, SOC, SSN, SWW, TBP, TIE, TMO, TTRIF, TWA, XTR, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....
New, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: added, SVRN, CHRZ, GHM, "Foods", to, AM, REL, CBRL, CAG, KMAG, DGN, MANH, LDW, TRI., WLT, WDC, GHV, TCO, NR, NOV, PAA, KE, ISSI., as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....again, NOT Yet, but just to briefly give you an idea of what may be coming....oh, and some "Food-oriented' stocks should begin to bottom ahead, just watching for now....
and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force"
trades....
Remember, this is primarily just a "watching to possibly buy" list !!! They only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, when/if they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....note, we re-added some previously given names, above here....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
note, list is shrinking lately....
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Medical: AGPH, GNE, etc.
Internet-oriented: YHOO, CNET, GNET, AOL, CMGI., etc.
Retail: CM, IBI., LOW, PSUN, TOM, TJX, TIF, BBY, etc.
(all other "internets/techs/computer/telecom, etc." are in lists below here, though, "computer enterprise software" stocks seem especially toppy)
**** some new ones (half of these are repeated from last time here, and I
have removed those 'already down'): added, AFL, AFS, AIT, AJG, ANET, ASML, ATI., BBY, BK, CMB, CMCSK, CMGI., CNET, CNCX, COVD, COX, DISH, EFII., ENE, FSR, GNE, IBI., ITVU, JEC, LVLT, MSPG, NITE, NMR, OCLI., OTEX, PAYX, PCLE, PGTV, PSUN, QWST, SNTC, STT, TEVIY, TIF, TSG, VIGN, VRTY, WAT, WKR, XCIT, to,
("repeats") ABOV, ADVP, AMAT, AOL, ARMHY, AWRE, BSYS, BSX, BUD, C., CMNT, CSCO, DAL, EL, ER, FM, FS, GBLX, GILTF, GMST, HTN, INKT, INSP, KIDE, LVCI., LZRC, MEL, MKL, MSS, MTP, NTLI., OK, ORBK, ORLY, PMI., RGIS, SANM, SBA, SCAI., TECH, TFSM, UIHIA, UNPH, USAI., VLSI., VOD, VRSN, YUM, WCOM....note, more Bank, Retail, Internet, Insur., Travel, Cable, stocks....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: added, "bell telephone", "more financials", "cruise/travel", to, "Laser Vision", Online Brokerage and Banking, Retail, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Insurance/Finance/Banking, Entertainment, Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and all Tele.-Commun., some Airlines, near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW brief LESSON: Among our Extended "Internet-related" stocks, note how many are having potential S.T. stage 5 "rallies after initial breaks of parabolic rises" patterns....if there was ever a time for "the top" in those, this whole area, technically, would be it....especially given their corrections in Jan./Feb., likely to be their "PSYCLE stage 2" -type action....yes, they "can" still form "double-tops" ahead, by having a "failing rally", soon, and/but any breaks below their 50-day MA's, and/or recent "necklines/support" I have been pointing out to you herein lately, would mark the "end" of their "hallowed staus".....watch for this....
* The following several paragraphs are in every NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding, and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops, and July '98 tops, and drops, have
proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my
main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match
my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously,
have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things,
properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you
actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE
you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows,
for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming
you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from
the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....