1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Meanwhile, our approach of selling "1/2 pos.(ition)" longs, around initial resistance and/or their 200 DMA, then selling the "bal.(ance)", hopefully after the next rise, in many stocks, seems to be viable....This also lowers ones' risk exposure along the way, yes ? And, was my 'lone wolf' inkling that a S.T. "top" among Internets might form this week, around the H & Q Tech. Conf., be correct ?
You heard it here first: my "Internet stock top timing suggestion" (partially using a "fundamental", which is rare) was right on, this time around, yes ? Come to think of it, I cannot recall anyone else who called it, this way, recently, can you ? The chart patterns + toppy sentiment + disappointing/unexpected news stuff = more stock price predictability for many of them, as usual....Hope you are learning the patterns....Our "Rotationally Split" market continues....I continue to make you money in BOTH directions, simultaneously, with some Q, S losses in some Puts accepted....
HEY, guess what ? In the last 4 NL's, I gave you specific "long-side favorites" lists, yes ? the exact stocks given you, right at their lows herein, so far, are/were: ASA, SEV, BKI., FHCC, HMT, LKI., APM, SWW, WTT, PAGE, ASPT, NSD, ADGO, EEX, MLT, SFSK, ESH, BDT, CELL, Utilities....Wow, gee, not too shabby, for just a couple of weeks' action, yes ? Only 2, Q, S losses, in MLT, APM, and 11, nice %, Q, Gains in ASA, BKI., HMT, LKI., SWW, WTT, ASPT, NSD, SFSK, EEX, CELL, Utilities, so far....the others remain buyable near their lows....you're welcome ....but fewer best-looking bases left, now, maybe, in no particular order: ADGO, KEG, FHCC, SEV, PAGE, FOTO, SOC, SCY, IPIC, cheapie Golds....? Keep in mind, these are NEVER "overnite", nor "real S.T." trades....you have had NO excuses ...every single one, was in at least a few NL's, at/near suggested buy prices, so you had plenty of opportunities to buy at least some of them....Geez, at least VIEW their charts to "see/learn" the patterns....I don't know what more I can give you....
Also, Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL
applicable, staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable,
"PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever
I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of,
for YOUR educational/trading benefit....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And note, the "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in sections (2). Longer
lists and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7)....and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). If you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you can chosse to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage.
Obviously, if "YOU" choose not to want certain types of stocks/plays, like real cheapies, or Puts, etc., or YOU choose not to learn how to do certain things better, it is your choice to do so, but realize, that other valued subscribers DO want them. You have to weigh, your time, against the significant value of learning my patterns of lifetime benefit. There ARE more than a few subscribers who are even successfully trading some of the stocks I 'miss' herein, because THEY are VIEWING the charts....'nuff said.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) I know I have not been perfect with Internet stocks (though I have at least given you more Put gains in them, than probably anyone else around, with no credit, to go with some Q, S losses), but they DO look like "failed stage 4/stage 5 rallies, some with "lower tops", to go with my "sentiment" top suggested recently herein, yes ? another fundamental: at $ 130 bill., the stk. mkt. val. of "AOL" alone, is more than that of, GM, AAPL, AMR, BKS, BA, COMS, RKY, WHR, WEN, all combined.... AOL might earn $ 350. mil. this year, the others earn over $ 10. Bill....in order for AOL to earn $ 10 B., assuming their margins remain the same, they would have to sign up EVERY SINGLE HOUSEHOLD in the U.S. at $ 20./mo....how's that for perspective ? also, AOL beat eps est., yet no break above 160., yes ? and IVIL and EGRP, both beat est., yet stocks down....and, AMZN eps came out Wed. after close....their losses tripled, while their sdales rose, etc., dig ? Remember, parabolic stocks will tend to do their falling, even as their "earnings" rise.... 2) and, the XCI. computer Index, also shows potential double-top ? ....3) new recovery high for Cppper, as suggested here first, a while ago....
4) recall how (so far) perfectly we called the "cyclicals" recently, getting out, into the rise, just as "the 95 %" began to talk about them, dig ? learning the pattern even more ? and, was that a "standing island top" in DCLK ? ....5) is this a rolling top in the Nikkei. index, as expected ? and, still a toppy formation in the U.S. Dollar.... 6) is cash Cotton commodity also forming a saucer base ? ....7) regarding NCE/PPW/NSP, they are involved in complicated mergers, so check with your broker for specifics, before getting involved in them.... 8) note more strength among the Gold, Staffing, Utility, and Low-priced stocks, and weakness among Drugs, all of which I was the first to suggest, herein for you.... and Crude Oil hit 18.30 or so, which I did not predict.... 9) and, so far at least, note the Crude contract made a minor new high, BUT, the Amex Oil Stock Index, has Not done so, yet, dig ? a developing nonconfirmation/divergence ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, or improper comments from the Financial
Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) CNBC's Bill Griffith, Tue. 27th, 9 am, interviewed pres. of "CSCO", and their planned "net aid" event, to hopefully riase money for a good cause, said, "this has got to help your company on several levels"....gee, Bill, have you seen the $ 120. resistance on CSCO's chart ? we'll fade you, and go Puts.... 2) CNBC's Joe Kernan, Mon. 27th, 1:25 pm, "E-trade has gained many new customers lately....daytraders doing several trades a day, minimum....People doing just one trade a month, are not coming over from major B-firms, so they must all be 'new' to the market....I don't know what this means, but it's gotta be good for EGRP stocks"....Hey, guy, you're right--- you DON'T know what this means....but WE do, yes ? ....3) CNBC's Bob Pisani, Tue. 27th, after the close, said, "all the traders on the NYSE floor I talk with are saying, 'don't worry about the Tech. stocks, there are plenty of others emerging, and increasing volume is bullish' "....He then added, "I think it's wonderful....I am NOT sensing ANYONE worrying about any potential declines..." Famous last words again ? ....4) CNBC's Ron Insana (again) Tue. 27th, just before the close, excitedly, "it's a Dow party today, as we are close to reaching 11,000"....oy.... 5) again Bob Pisani. CNBC, Wed. 28th, 10:05 am, "we're having a Basic Materials love-fest here...." late, as usual, right ? learning the pattern ? ....5) Bill Griffith, CNBC, 9:35 am, upon being told the T-Bond was up another point or so (my "PSYCLE sm" is ccorrect, and the first to catch triple bottom, again), said, "hey, if that happens, that would positively affect the stock market" , as if that was/is a "fact", which, as you know, it is NOT....Geez....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.:
1) KWHY-tv's Wendy Katz showed a nice chart of "consumer confidence' numbers, going back 12 years, Tue. 27th, after the close....It showed a top in the 1986-87 area, then a trough base, 1990-93, then, what seem to be another rolling extended top forming HERE and now, get it ? ....2) CNBC's Bob Pisani., Wed. 28th, 10:09 am, unknowingly showed a telling chart of Investor's Intelligence's "% of stocks above their 10-wk. and 30-wk. MA's", and, obviously, while looking slightly higher, and the recent risers within the market have been broadening as I predicted for you --- the % over 10-wk MA figure may actually soon come into historical overbought levels....meaning, it is getting later in the "catch-up game" I was first to predict herein for you....getting more difficult to find "brand new" stocks still near their lows, dig ? ....3) another CNBC reporter asked again, Wed., "how can Trans. stocks rise, as Crude Oil breaks out ?" get my NL and booklets, guy.... 4) Wed., CNBC, noon, Ron Insana, had the pres. of Tricon Global (YUM) on, with the incorrect grabber, "a yummy stock"....maybe up till recently, but no longer, as I added it as a Puttable, as you know....already down a bit, even as their pres. raved about their prospects, they beat the eps est., yet stock -10, Wed./Thu.... hah....remember, NO "links" ! a good chart pattern most often beats any fundamentals.... 5) Thu. 29th, "WCOM" ann. better than expected eps, beat estimates, but its stock, which I gave you herein as a Put, FELL even more.... 6) our "ELY" reported hiugher-then-predicted-by-the-overpaid-analysts" eps, but stock already over $ 15., up from $ 10. where I gave it to you herein, for an easy big gain, from when the "experts" were universally negative on it, right ? the pattern never changes....
d) more, late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) CNBC, Mon. 26th, noon, Goldman Sachs, and Mary Meeker, both super-bullish on "PCLN", even up here, saying, "they have the strongest fundamental business model", and, "the risk of missing a big winner here may be more than the risk of a disappointment." also, another B-firm loves EBAY, even up here, saying, "they will grow into their valuation"....wow....boy are they going to be upset, soon.... 2) according to CNBC reports Monday, MER and Morgan Stanley had both downgraded IBM around recent 160. lows....they laughed....amazing.... 3) a beauty: Wed. 12:30 pm, Art Cashin, PWJ, a guy I respect, said, "this rally is almost on autopilot now.....most traders are taking swipes at stuff and missing everything....they are all saying risk is dead....smokestack america if back in vogue....which worries me...." Well said....read my NL, guy.... 4) total B.S. from Merrill: their Internet analyst, who remains super bullish, with no stops nor protection (what kind of service is that to give paying clients ? but I digress), Thu., today, said, after he was WRONG on the earnings of AMZN, "we still think there is an 'emerald city' ahead for Internet stocks, but one might have to cross a poppy field or two on the trip there." Excuse me ? Hasn't their once-in-a-lifetime rise ALREADY, more than fulfilled even the most amazing, phenomenal expectations ? Watch for the "lucky-so-far internet bulls" to start backtracking and rationalizing....and under-performing....
5) on CNBC, Thu. 29th, 9:25 am, Amerindo Fund's mgr. (whom I previously mentioned here) reiterated, "YHOO and AMZN have nowhere to go but up....I think EBAY stock will continue to do very, very well....you have to take the bigger picture...." He also still loves ATHM and INKT....God forbid these kind of fortunate guys use stops or protection or take any parabolic gains....Anyway, speaking of "the bigger picture", isn't that stage 4, compared to every stock/I.G. in past history ? Has he SEEN a chart of these stocks ? has he HEARD of I.G. rotation ? Narrow-mindedness near tops, most often means narrower returns in the future.... 6) Thu. 29th, a Deutche Bank analyst became the first major to issue a formal "Sell", on CHV, TX, stock up here....he said, "every day Crude stays up here, is a day when the mid-east countries can cheat on their production." I agree....CNBC reported, "many analysts are now calling for $ 20. oil." Don't bet on it. These are the same latecomer/overpaid analysts who missed buying the low, right ?
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
1/2 pos. calls MMWW (13+ to 20-) for VQ 200% G....bal. calls FNF (15- to 21-) for VQ 150% Gain....bal. stk.on.mgn. MRVC (6 to 10+) for 125% G....bal. calls IGL (19- to 24-) for 111% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. FAF (14- to 20-) for VQ 80% G....1/2 pos. stock HIV (1 3/4 to 3+) for 60% G....bal. puts RTRSY (96+ to 82+) for Q 100% G....calls ORCL (23+ to 29-) for VVQ 111% G....1/2 pos. stock DSGIF (3- to 6-) for Q 90% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. MLP (9+ to 13++) for 85% G ....1/2 pos. calls ANDW (11+ to 15-) for VQ 90% G....1/2 pos. puts VCELA (29- to 23) for Q 100% G....calls PZN (16+ to 20+) for VQ 100% G....bal. calls SAP (25- to 31-) for VQ 100% G....also refer back to last two sets of NL's sales here....
and/but, longs, GEMS, and, puts, GMST, CMNT, SNTC, ROST, FTEN, OCLI., AFL, SYY, MEL, HRL, ENE, STT, NMR, PMI., BJ, EL, BK, C., for very quick, very small losses, of little overall consequence to a properly diversified portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy any Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their
patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just
buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with
less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent,
for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions"
have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs): (note: If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables", long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a " + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-, means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) AAM @ 1 7/16, ARM @ 13, ASL @ 8.06, BMG @ 2 11/16, CHB @ 18 3/4, FOTO @ 3 1/8, GPU @ 37+, HM @ 8 3/8, MANH @ 8-, MWY @ 8 13/16, NCE @ 34+, NSP @ 23++, PPW @ 16-, SCG @ 22++, SXTN @ 5+, UFC @ 20+, "the T-Bond under 120.", and,
"Repeats": ADGO @ 3 11/16, AIMM @ 1 15/16, AZC @ 9/16, BAL @ 2+, BGO @ 5/8, BGP @ 13++, CAU @ 0.20, CBJ @ 3 13/16, CCH @ 0.28, CDV @ 2 7/8, CNJ @ 15+, CNU @ 0.46, DAY, EAR @ 9/16, ECO @ 1 11/16, ESH @ 5.06, FHCC @ 14++, FNL @ 5 1/8, GDC @ 2 3/16, GRERF @ 0.28, GSR @ 3/4, HDG @ 1.06, IPIC @ 2 5/8, KEG @ 3 5/8, KMAG @ 3 5/8, KRY @ 5/8, LWN @ 1., NGX @ 0.53, PAGE 3 13/16, PRD @ 19 3/4, SCY @ 4, SEV @ , SGU @ 14+, SOC @ 5+, SWW @ 2 1/4, UMR @ 11/16, VGZ @ 0.175, WH @ 16-, WIX @ 3 7/8, WTT @ 1 5/8....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds... ."buy low", right ? but not really that great a list, as intimated above....
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein,
countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT
"just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some
stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes
over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at
times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up
those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for
you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already
moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many
subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and
there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching"
NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly:
the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, , --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks, some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL. LEARN the patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) note growing lists again: AJG @ 48, ANET @ 21-, AOL @ 156, BBY @ 53, BID @ 45+, CMGI. @ 284, COVD @ 110+, CSCO @ 118, DISH @ 114-, ECILF @ 41+, GBLX @ 59+, INSP @ 134, LVLT @ 91, LZRC @ 40, MFNX @ 85-, MTP @ 83-, OTEX @ 37++, PAYX @ 55, PCLE @ 55, PE @ 27++, PGTV @ 43++, PSIX @ 59+, QWST @ 95, SONE @ 122, TEVIY @ 49-, TFSM @ 54, TSG @ 61-, UNFY @ 15+, USAI. @ 42, VIGN @ 100-, VRTY @ 38-, XCIT @ 160, WCOM @ 94, WMT @ 51+....most are extended Techs/Internets/Commun., and most all were in previous recent NL's, in sec. (7) below....
(and, note, some "new" Repeats again) AFS @ 45+, ANET @ 21, ASML @ 47+, BSYS @ 57, BTY @ 175-, FM @ 26+, FS @ 42+, KIDE @ 32, LLL @ 49+, MKL @ 183+, MTNT @ 55+, NTLI. @ 85-, ORBK @ 49-, ORLY @ 48-, PSUN @ 38, SANM @ 70, SBA @ 26+, UIHIA @ 64, VISX @ 130, VLSI. @ 19+, VOD @ 186....
and/but, took, WAT, FRO, PAYX, NKE, TIF, BSX, NITE, OK, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....any new highs = off the puts list....
IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web
site, a stock might break its extended S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed
EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy, or
put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still Added, as above....So I
am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying
any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and
therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted....this takes
just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues
which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then
incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the process is Your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", BLUD, GNCI., CHRZ, PENN, RMDY, CBRL, ASF, RSG, CNC, PLC, CIN, HS, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CMCSK, AMAT, MSPG, UNPH, ADRX, QRSI., JEC, COX, FSR, LSI., as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock here was specifically given herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
WTT 2 5/8 up 1, SWW 3 1/8 up 1, GDC 3 up 7/8, AAM 2 1/2 up 1 1/8, NPRO 2 3/4 up 1/2, DSGIF 6 up 1 5/8 (sos), SCY 4 5/8 up 7/8, BMC 9 3/4 up 2 1/2 (sos), MRVC 10 1/2 up 2 1/2 (S), ALN 9 3/4 up 2 1/4 (sos), MANH 10 1/8 up 2 3/8, BDT 5 1/8 up 1 1/8, OMX 11 up 1 7/8, WYG 12 1/8 up 2 1/8, FNL 6 up 7/8, CPU 7 3/8 up 1, HRBC 11 5/8 up 2 5/8, WYG 14 1/4 up 3 1/2 (sos), MMWW 20 up 4 3/8, KEG 4 up 1/2, CELL 7 1/2 up 1, NPSI. 16 1/8 up 2, BIO/A 29 up 3 3/8 (sos), MWY 9 1/8 up 1 1/8, NPRO 2 7/8 up 3/8, ASPT 8 3/8 up 3/4, HIV 3 3/16 up 5/16 (sos), ASL 8 7/8 up 7/8, HM 9 3/8 up 1 1/8, DGN 12 1/8 up 1 1/8, ESC 12 3/4 up 7/8, JOB 5 1/4 up 1/2, ARM 14 3/8 up 1 1/2, FLH 11 3/4 up 1 1/2,
(cont'd.) HEC 2 1/4 up 1/4, TIE 8 up 3/4, BGP 14 1/2 up 7/8, SGU 16 3/8 up 1, WH 16 3/4 up 1, WDC 8 7/8 up 1/2, NCE 36 1/8 up 2 1/8, UFC 21 3/8 up 1 3/8, PLL 19 1/2 up 7/8, SUB 42 3/8 up 2 3/8, SCG 23 5/8 up 1 1/8, GPU 38 5/8 up 1 3/8, IV 18 5/8 up 7/8, VOO 7 1/8, FRTE 6 3/4, ORCL 29 1/8 (S), ORI. 20 5/16, BOY 15 3/8, WWW 13, SCZ 15 5/8, , MLP 14 1/8 (sos), WLT 11 7/8, PZN 20 3/4 (S), EEX 7, KNE 22 3/8, AM 26 3/8, RML 22 1/8, BGE 28 1/2, IGT 17 3/4, SYC 16 1/8, BCP 6 1/8, up/further, just since last time here....
note, ORCL, hit 50 DMA, and WYG, ANDW, PZN, hit their 200 DMA....and, NEM, hit 23+, ASA 18 3/8, HPK 13+, TOY 23+, HOT 36, GSB 25, PAM 7+, GW 2 3/8, HPC, SIL, SCS, MEA, LOD, PDE, LPX, higher still....all given you near their lows, herein....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some
subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the one-year daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, KMAG 3 1/4, 4 1/2, 4, AAC 6 1/4 up 1, PSSI. 11 7/8 up 1 3/8, ICO 9 5/8 up 1 1/8, AOI. 3 3/8, 2 3/4, ARW 17+ up 1, FHCC 14 3/4, 16 1/4, WDC 8 1/8, FRTE 6, NPSI. 15, KEG 3 3/8, ICO 9 5/8, WTT 2, AAM 2, TAROF, RTC, SAMC, SAP, SFSK, ADGO, IPIC, TBP, AFCI., IFMX, NSD, HIV, ESC, WWW, GDC, WS, HDG, CPU, SEV, SYBS, AGU, CNU, APFC, PNW, OMM, ORI., OCN, TXB, CCH, BS....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) (note, this list is still Shrinking, get it ?) BXH 6 1/8 up 7/8, FHCC 16 1/4, 14 5/8, 15 3/4, AAC 5 7/8 up 5/8, TMAR, RJF, ANDW, KMAG, ADGO, IGT, AIMM, CNU, CDV, AFCI., APFC, EAR, NSD, LWN, EEX, TTEC, WIX, SOC, RYO, BLM, BKI., ECO, DAY, BGO, FLM, MCL, CAU, MSN, AM, BS, WH, cheap golds....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
INSP -27, GNET -31, +8 1/2, CMGI. -39, +5, -18, +11, XCIT -10 1/2, +3, -20, +5, VIGN -12, +5, -18, +4, AOL -12, +3, -9, +6, CSCO +2, -18, +8, COVD -17, +6, SONE +3, -17, DISH -11, WCOM -10, QWST +3, -10, TFSM -9, MTNT +2, -8, MTP -11 1/2, +6, CNET +5, -15, +7, -15, +7, LVLT -7 1/2, ASML -7, TSG -7 1/2, MFNX -8, PSIX -8, NTLI. -8, GBLX -7, TER +3, -11 1/2, +2, SANM -6, LOW -6, UIHIA -5 1/2, BBY -5 1/2, VCELA -4 1/2 (sow), TEVIY -4, WMT -4, ARMHY -3 1/2, +1, GILTF -3 1/2, SCAI. -3, +6, -8, +3, BSYS -4, BID -3 1/2, PCLE -3, VOD -3, ANET -2 3/4, USAI. -2 1/2, PGTV -2, LZRC -2, OTEX -2 1/2, +1 1/2, -1, LVCI. -2, VRTY -1 3/4, MCD -1 1/2, HTN -1 1/4, FM -1 1/2, ECILF -2 1/4, PSUN -1, ORBK -1, PGTV -2, TR -1, ORLY -1, AFS, GNE -1, down/further, just since last time here....then, getting some V.S.T. dead-cat bnounces Thu. off lows....
also, MCK got killed, anew, and, PFE, STE, down further, gave you near high herein....and, MRK, fell top 200 DMA....once again, some of the drops were so fast, I had trouble keeping up with them so I could report them to you here....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On next Weakness,
towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously long Puts right
near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned,
for Your Benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little
time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....
let them do their thing.
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow):
again, we need to see many stocks break below recent lows/necklines, and, so
far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)"
sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn patterns from.
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades, or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also, there may seem to be "a lot" of stocks to review here, especially in the next two
sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times, right ?
View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT "chase up"....
only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their lows, with stops for protection.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
*** Note, these lists are likely to shrink, due to recent price rises....
Prec.Metals (GSR, NGX, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DRFNY, DAY, AZC, BGO, all real cheapies, riskier, some may need more work/time, added more below as well)
Energy and Oil Svc. (UMR, MHR, SEV, KEG, etc., near their recent lows Only, and, more stocks, as below, on bigger pullbacks, ahead)
Biotech/Health/Medical (BAL, FHCC, TXB, EAR, AOI., SHG)
"Staffing/Employment" (JOB, OLS, UWW, ASIS, NRL, PGA, ASF, MPS, MMWW, may be too late for some already)
Computer Memory Devices (WDC, IOM) (may need work/time)
other Computer/Techs: (ATV, WTT, MTSI., CELL, note, fewer now)
R.E.I.T./finance/Healthcare/Utilities, potential high-yield-plus (add, SCG, NSP, CIN, PPL, GPU, AHE, NCE, PNW, NHI., PPW, NHP, to, SMT, BOY, DTE, CEI., TRI., HCR, TCO)....note, this I.G. section has grown....
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy
list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": , , --- were taken Off ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly ....for one thing, we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first, and/or more fully formed "bases", yes ?
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double" bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, AAM, ARM, ASL, BMG, CBJ, CNC, CNJ, CS, GLDR, HOC, LFG, MNY, MU, MWY, MXG, NCE, NSP, PFC, PIR, PPW, PSEM, PSFT, QSII., RDRT, SAFC, SCG, SPC, UDG, UFC, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) ABH, ADGO, AIMM, AMD, AN, AVGLY, BAL, BDT, BGP, BKI., BYX, CDV, CEXP, CNU, CPU, CWC, DHC, DRFNY, EAR, ESH, FCN, FHCC, FLM, FNL, GDC, GRERF, HDG, HEC, HM, HNV, IO., IOM, IPIC, KEG, KNE, LWN, MIDI., MSN, OCN, OMX, PAGE, PAH, PENN, PGA, PRD, RTC, SAMC, SCY, SGU, SHOW, SOC, SSN, SWW, TBP, TIE, TMO, TTRIF, TWA, XTR, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....
New, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: added, ONPT, DATM, GISH, IRSN, NOW, PRCM, SAVLY, SVRN, CHRZ, GHM, MCK, "Foods", to, AM, REL, CBRL, CAG, KMAG, DGN, MANH, LDW, TRI., WLT, WDC, GHV, TCO, NOV, PAA, KE, ISSI., as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....again, NOT Yet, but just to briefly give you an idea of what may be coming....oh, and some "Food-oriented' stocks should begin to bottom ahead, just watching for now....
and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force"
trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the less-known ones....
Remember, this is primarily just a "watching to possibly buy" list !!! They only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, when/if they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....note, we re-added some previously given names, above here....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?):
note, these lists are likely to shrink, as issues fall from their highs lately....
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Medical: AGPH, GNE, etc.
Internet-oriented: YHOO, CNET, GNET, AOL, CMGI., etc.
Retail: CM, PSUN, TOM, TJX, BBY, etc.
(all other "internets/techs/computer/telecom, etc." are in two lists just below, though, "computer enterprise software" stocks seem especially toppy)
**** new ones: adding, AXP, FITB, MHP, JPM, LSI., to, AFS, AIT, AJG, ANET, ASML, ATI., BBY, BID, CMB, CMCSK, CMGI., CNET, CNCX, COVD, COX, DISH, EFII., FSR, GNE, IBI., ITVU, JEC, LVLT, MSPG, OCLI., OTEX, PAYX, PCLE, PGTV, PSIX, PSUN, QWST, TEVIY, TSG, VIGN, VRTY, VYTL, WAT, WKR, WMT, XCIT, to,
("repeats") ABOV, ADVP, AMAT, AOL, ARMHY, AWRE, BSYS, BUD, COST, CSCO, DAL, FM, FS, GBLX, GILTF, HTN, INKT, INSP, KIDE, LVCI., LZRC, MKL, MSS, MTNT, MTP, NTLI., ORBK, ORLY, RGIS, SANM, SBA, SCAI., TECH, TFSM, UIHIA, UNPH, UNFY, USAI., VLSI., VOD, VRSN, YUM, WCOM....note, more Bank, Retail, Internet, Insur., Travel, Cable, stocks....and, more "names from before"....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: added, "bell telephone", "more financials", "cruise/travel", to, "Laser Vision", Online Brokerage and Banking, Retail, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Insurance/Finance/Banking, Entertainment, Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and all Tele.-Commun., some Airlines, near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: recent action has, again, shown/proven the value, of "Ind. Grp. Rotation"....one I.G. moves, then the next, etc., over time....the Gamings, then, Oil Services, then, Basic Industries, then, Cyclicals, then Golds, then Utilities, rising, while, first, the Utilities/T-bond, then the Drugs, then the Biotechs, and now, maybe the Internets, each fell, etc. Of interest/import, some rose, while others fell, simultaneously, exactly as taught in my "I.G.R." booklet (re-read it)....we even had "catch-up" moves....neat....Sure, we've had some Q, S losses along the way, but, my helping you learn the patterns, is certainly worth many thousands of dollars to you the rest of your life, yes ? Don't you know other nice people you might recommend receive my output formally ? Please let them, and me know I am here, thanks....
* The following several paragraphs are in every NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding, and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops, and July '98 tops, and drops, have
proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my
main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match
my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously,
have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things,
properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you
actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE
you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows,
for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming
you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from
the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....