1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) note, as we accumulate more Puttable Gainers for you, recently added more extendeds within the, most all Media, Toys/Games, Consumer products, Retail, Shoes, Clothing, Shoes, Financials still, Foreign Media, Travel/Leisure, and maybe even finally R.E./housings as 'fobo's ?.... 2) recall my famous on-TV first-to-coirrectly-predict rise in the DXY, U.S. dollar, from its double-long-term base around 80+ ?, well, recently, have been seeing a top form, around 120- or so....since we don't 'link' items (re-read my Booklets), just trade it my way well as usual, selling it up here, and let the pundits waste space pntificating on fundamentals....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Govt.,
etc.:
1) the latest woman-idiot reporter on CNBC, Tue., Sharon _____, ridiculously exclaimed, "shares of IBM are SURGING today, on news they are raising their dividend a few cents, up almost 1 % today" - gee, up 1 % is 'surging', huh....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) Tue., I heard your congress people actually say that "the recent huge-Energy-firm mergers have been good for consumers and the economy"....this, of course, is beyond ridiculous....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) of interest, recent B. Schaeffer bearish tome (are there ever any other kinds from him ?) mentioned "not high-enuf QQQ put/call ratio to be even remotely oversold yet" - yet, when he showed chart of the P/C ratio overlayed with the price movements of the QQQ, they were NOT opposite, as would be if that indicator worked, but rather, almost parallel !, i.e., the last few moves since 6/01, the P/C was low AT the lows, and high AT the highs ! the exact opposite of what has been taught about the P/C ratio for decades....hmmmm....he mentioned nothing about this....why not ?
e) more general, political, misreported items proving
why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ...
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better,
and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains: 0 more Longs, and, 6
more Puts:
all puts the SPY (1170 to 1060+) for % G....all puts the DJIA (10700+ to 9800+) for Q % G....bal. puts DJTA (3030+ to 2700-) for big % G....bal. puts AMG (74 to 62+) for Q % G.... all puts BKX (907 to 860) for VQ big % G....bal. puts SOX (610 to 510) for VQ big % G....bal. puts QQQ (41 to 31) for % G....bal puts AMG (74+ to 62++) for Q % G....1/2 pos. puts ASTSF (17- to 13+) for VQ % G....at least 1/2 pos. puts HD (52 to 46+) for % G....all puts C. 950 to 42) for Q % G....1/2 pos. puts KLIC (21= to 17+) for VQ % G....bal. puts SPW ?
and/but, longs, MIPS, TNOX, TERN, MVSN, TNOX ny ?, MCCC, QCOM, STXN, NOVT, PWAV (straddle), ALA ? probably, ILXO no ?, LEXG, TPC yes, ABX, TLGD ?, ANDW ?, and, puts, CUNO ny, OCAS no, APPB, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not
on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
again, "just get real close" to
suggested prices:
1/2 pos. SYD @ 18+, NEOL @ 13++, 1/2 pos. AVNX near 3., 1/3 pos. CPWR @ 8-, 1/3 pos. ITWO @ 3+, 1/3 pos. WPI. @ 24+, 1/4 pos. MGM @ 15+,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): ASIA @ 11-, 1/3 pos. TALX @ 14+, 1/4 pos. GLW @ 6 5/8, 1/3 pos. HBIO @ 7+, 1/3 pos. FDRY @ 5+, TLGD no ?, CIEN @ 7+, 1/3 pos. DRIV @ 4.55, 1/3 pos. NOR @ 19-, 1/2 pos. MUSE @ 8-, 1/3 pos. VANS @ 11++, GNSS @ 20+, SQNM @ 5+, PMCS @ 15-, EMKR @ 8-, CMGI. @ 1.24, RTK @ 0.50+, RT @ 10++, CHU @ 9, PACW @ 0.42-, WGRD @ 5+, ILXO @ 14+ ?, 1/3 pos. ANDW no ?, 1/3 pos. EOT @ 6-, QLTI. @ 13+ ?, 1/3 pos. NOVL fobd ?, and 1/3 pos. OPWV @ 5. anyway, calls PWAV (see below)...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, REGN, ILA, AOL, MCIT, QTRN, MSCC, VTA, AGEN, RTRSY, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops.... and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
1/2 pos. HOTT @ 24, 1/2 pos. CLX @ 45-, 1/3 pos. AVP @ 56, 1/3 pos. VFC @ 44+, 1/3 pos. MNI. @ 59, 1/3 pos. XTO @ 20+, 1/3 pos. PHG @ 31 ?,
"Repeats":
1/2 pos. PLCE @ 36+, 1/2 pos. RML @ 19+, 1/3 pos. EXPD @ 58+, ZBRA @ 58+, 1/2 pos. ONE @ 42+, 1/2 pos. BRO @ 35, TGT @ 45-, 1/3 pos. SLM @ 98+, WFMI. @ 47+, 1/3 pos. MCRS @ 28, puts PWAV (see above), 1/2 pos. PX @ 59+, CHS @ 35+, 1/2 pos. BUD @ 63-, 1/2 pos. KRI. @ 69+, 1/2 pos. the DFX @ 201+, 1/2 pos. PLAB @ 35, 1/3 pos. CB @ 77-, BCM @ 36+, 1/2 pos. the XLF @ 27+, OCAS @ 20, 1/3 pos. COL @ 24++, 1/2 pos. BGP @ 24, EV @ 40+, IBC @ 25++, BDX @ 38+, 1/2 pos. MEDQ @ 30+, 1/2 pos. MATW @ 25, CFBX @ 27 ?, OCAS @ 20, 1/2 pos. TKTX @ 42, IBC @ 26+, CUNO @ 37, SYY @ 29+,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, HCR, GCI, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", TSS, TZH, MDCC, JNPR, RFMD, CCI, SAPE, MLNM, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CACI, GILD, IMNX, GAP, TECD, USAI, UVN, STK, TSM, JDEC, CYMI, NSM, HDI, GCI, IJX, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
still banging out many winners for you, even during pb's times,
yes ?:
OPWV 5, 4.73 fobd, 6.01, FDRY 5.64 (B), 6.15, MGL 8.93 up 0.86 (S), RRC 5.88 up 0.54 soso, GNSS 19.75 fobd, 24.14, ITWO 3.35 up 0.25, ICCI. 19.94 up 1.29, MDTH 18.89 up 1.19, PWAV 13.65 up 1.11, HBIO 7.80, 7.34 (B), 8.17, SYD 20.00 up 1.75, F. 16.75, LU 4.75, FAX 4.42 (S) d.t., EOT 7.00 up, NEOL 13.60, 14.22, AXTI. 11.22, and the TNX 10-yr. and TYX 30-yr. bond's prices rose S.T. (yields fell), TNX 5.054 % dn, TYX 5.587 % dn, since last missive here....and, the TNX and TYX both are aopproaching their 200 DMA's below....while, ASA 35, NEM 30, UHS 48, LSS 30, 25, even higher still....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or more Bounces after pullbacks:
obviously, with bounces, also getting
tons of S.T. pb's all-around, in Techs, Telecoms, and others, etc.,
CPST 2.98 (B), 3.12, PMCS 14.67 (B), 16.00, DRIV 4.40 (B), 4.86, TALX 14.50 (B), 16.50, PWAV 12.54 (B), GLW 6.37 (B), 7.09, 6.76, WGRD 5.15 (B), 6.19, 5.75, MEDC 13.70, 15.47, 13.25, KOPN 8.55, 9.40, 7.80 (B), 8.15, MUSE 7.82 (B), 8.80, 7.89 (B), PLXS 26.49, 23.58, CHL 16.18 up, ALA 12.74 bopb, DT 13.70 pb, EOT 6.50, 6.18, 7.00, 5.95 bopb, NTIQ 21.86 pb, bopb, CMGI. 1.25 (B), EMKR 7.91 pb, DT 14.43 pb, AMT 4.64, 5.16, RAD 2.85 pb, 3.15, SPOT 21.98 pb, AMRI. 24.20, 22.00 (B), 23.45, ANDW 16.45 pb, bopb, NOR 18.75 (B), LU 4.43, 4.59., SUNW 8.03, 8.32, EOT 5.95 pb (B), MDTH 17.75 pb, RT 10.70, 11.40, PACW 0.45, 0.54, 0.51...some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?)
FON sos, LNUX, TLGD 19.90 (S) ?, USU 7.49 up (S), AMCC (S), RMD 36.75 dn, SQNM 5.29 (B), 6.09, 5.35, 5.93, 5.59, GLW 6.37 (B), 7.07, ASIA 10.71 ?, TLGD 20.15 qsl ?, MVSN 22. bd ?, PLXS 24.75 up, FALC 5.76, 6.40 (S), fobd ?, PMCS 15- (B), CIEN 7.05 (B), 7.50, TPC 7.71 (S) ?, ALA 12.26 (S) ?, ILXO 14, 15. fobd ?, ANDW 16. (B), 17.07, 15.28 fobd ?, 16.40 (S) ?, PWAV 11.75 bd, 12.44,QLTI. 13.50 dn, NOVL 3.40, 3.60....and, OPWV, seems to have been a ridiculous 'fobd', oy....as are others, like, FALC, NUAN, SQNM, EMIS, TLGD, ANDW, ILXO, NOVL, etc., often happens around turning-point lows, yes ?
and, still, most all Techs and rallied stocks, had to follow-through up
further, but have not (read sec. (1) and (2) above....above their bases and
resistance highs of this week....and/or, above their
previously-broken-below-before-Sept. 11th-levels....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
SPW +11 1/2 (B), -14 1/2 sow, ZBRA -5 1/2, MANH -5, XL -4, AMG -4 1/2 (S), TKTX -4 1/2, PWAV 11.76 dn 1.60, CB -2 1/2, SLM -2 3/8, CHS -2, KRI. -1 3/4, OCAS -1 1/2, HOTT -1 3/4, KLIC -2 1/2 sow, BRO -1 1/2, LNC -1 1/2, COL -1, ONE -1 3/4, BRO -1, HD -1 1/4, TGT -1, VFC -1, SEE -1, C. -1 1/2 (S), WFMI. -1, IBC -1, ASTSF -1 3/4, EV -1, RML, the SOX 506 dn 78 (S), the QQQ 30.6 dn 1.4 (S), the SPY 1,063 dn 45 (S), the DJTA 2660 dn 140 (S), the DJIA 9811 dn 452 (S), XLF, MCRS, lower, since last NL here.... also, after a cursory expected EVB bounce, note TYC 18+ new low....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
and, were, MMM, NSM, S, MDY, STJ, KLAC, PNRA, IMNX, TSM, more 'fobo's' ? this ends our 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
Energy &
Services, etc., Utilities, Retail/Apparel, Cable/Wireless/Telecom, Foreign depr.
stocks - like Japan/China, some Argentina/Brazil, Agriculture-oriented, Biotech/Drugs, Health-related, Chem./Farm/Fert., alternative Energy, depr. non-precious metals, some Transportation/Airlines/Parts, Ind. Groups....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, memory, computer - relateds, etc., below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always, with close stops....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added even more: but, note,
obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many
others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note,
re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
CPST, LU, ITWO, CIMA ?, CMNT, CCUR, EMBT, IMCL ?, VLCCF, NEOL, SANM, PCOP, WIND, LGVN, CPWR, RSTN, MLNM, IMNY, CNC, AV, WPI, MMS, SYD, TGX, MGM, APS, to, NOVL, TSS, TZH, ILXO ?, RFMD opbo, SAPE opbo, F, AVNX, GNSS, BRW, APS, NOR, TPC nah ?, VANS, ALGN, ACPW obpbo, MC, RAD, JNPR obpbo, ARTC, IO, POZN, KM obpbo, VGZ obpbo, UTOB, SCMR, ENMD, IN, SIEB, AXTI, RT opb,
as EVB's or bases....
and, some Energy/Alternatives/Svcs.: FCEL opbo, VTS, WR, NR, EOT, CPST,
some Biotechs, Drugs, and health-relateds: RAD obpbo, MEDC, RMD opb, NEOL, CNU, SQNM, HBIO, AMRI,NEOL,
among Telecom-Networking-Internet-Satellite-Commun.-orienteds: PACW, CMGI, FDRY, REMC opb, TLGD ?, GLW, CCI, CHU, FALC ?, ITWO, CIEN,
techs, computer-orienteds, hardware, storage, software, semis, etc.: WGRD obp, SUNW opbo, MUSE, RDRT, PMCS opbo, ANDW, DRIV, KOPN, NTIQ opbo, AMT,
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
added, MKL, STK, VFC, TRB ?, VIA, TOO, BHE, TSG ?, UVN, RTN ?, MYG, MEL, NBL, PHG, HDI, PHG, XTO ?, IJH mid-cap index, CLX, CTX, VFC, DDS, AVY, AVP, ACS, ASFC, COHU, GISX, HOTT, INTL ?, TREE, PNRA, SRCL, LAMR, WFSL, IFIN, CYMI, SMNT ?, to, the XNG, NOC, MXIM, MCRS, EASI, ARRO, NVLS, EXPD, ZBRA, USAI. ?, BMS, GAP ?, BRO, ONE, R, TGT, TSM, SLM, BWC, MNI, NEU, ITW ?, RMHT ?, KMT os, AAPL ?, RML, KRI, CHS, MI, PX, XL, RDN, CBH, CPWM, AGE, TJX ?, PLAB, MRVL, WFMI, OCAS, NTRS, PLCE, PBI, MCK, SAP oso, XLF, MI, KWD, WAG, PFG, SKY ?, DRS, SYY, the BKX, APPB, TKTX, MAY, EV, SMG, CUNO, ITG, MATW, MEDQ, VRST, MANH, BDX yes ?, COST, NHP, IBC, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops:
added, Extended: machinery/cap. goods/makers, auto parts, retail, to, comp. software, auto/truck/OEM, optical character recognition, energy, home-related/furnishings, retail and apparel, shoes, security, restaurants, Comp./Educ. co's., Peripherals, Security, temp. staffing, Pollution-related, Aero./Def., "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', Insur./some Banks/Mtg./S & L's/Loans, 'extendeds only' within
Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, most types of Media/papers/tv, Funeral,
extended-only Food, and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY,
w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside
follow-ups/ideas section....
general note: as per my teachings, WITHIN some industry groups, there
may be bpth, extendeds, and depresseds, as recently, certainly normal....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES