1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) notice, I finally added extended Oil Svc. indexes, as Pot. Puttables, get it ?.... 2) and, conversly, provided they stiull hold recent lows, the SOX/semis/chips depr. stks below, pot. longables.... as usual, i am among the few considering them.... 3) unexpected pop in Gold to 439, ....4) hey, crude fell from 55+ to 50- again, and by me, remains nvg/ toppy....with a big rise in Inventories, and, for 1st time in 2 years a significant DROP in 'investment in energy/svc. equipment', hmmmm....gee, who recently added extended Oil. Svc. stks. as puts herein ?, you're welcome....
5) meanwhile, yields drop, hmmmm, TYX to 4.495 % (a v.s.t bd in yield for both !), and TNX to 4.166 %, wc....while the June t-bond inched above 115 quietly, I heard from no one else, hmmmm....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Politicians, your Govt., etc.:
1) in a rare probably-correct tome, recent TRA NL mentioned recent Barrons loving DEO stk. up here (dgms, that's the normla pattern, yes ?) while panning BUD, now depr.,as mirrors of each other, hating BUD down here, hmmmm....there should be yet another example of my "PSYCLE sm" working, forward, as I dislike both stks, but would buy BUD/short DEO, if anything, right ?, U know the pattern....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, data, and/or stock price moves:
1) reading now, (its about time, dgms), that, supposedly, China may revalue/devalue its Yuan/Renmimbi currency by 3-5 % next month, a far cry from the huge incorrect-for-years predictions made every day for a long time by the idiot NL's, ay ?, no biggie.... 2) more PSYCLE-proof, as MSO announced slower-momentum and a Q loss - note, as I exactly predicted herein 4 U, as usual, the 95 % bt. MSO above 30-35 on expectations BS, and, only after stk. fell to 20, did the 'less than rosy' news ann. come out, R U learning the pattern ?, you're welcome....
3) finally, more real confirmation as seemingly only I expected, as "durable goods orders plunged last month by -3.0 %, following smaller drop son both Jan. and Feb., and was the largest such yr-to-yr. % drop in 30 months", hmmmm.... so, i again posit, USA recession looms ahead ? we already see some slowdown in China, yes ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) the recall-he-turned-bullish at recent topos B. Schaeffer, worte in his Thu. NL, "carnage continues....things get worse....is the pullback here to stay ?" good job, guy....not....will watch to cont. 2 fade his s.t. ideas, yes ? and, btw, that very afternoon, his newer headline was, 'market surges upward" - C Y we rarely listen to these overrated NL guys ?, next....oh, and another misleading/incoorrect headline of his, "housing stks shoot higher on pos. new home numbers" - when, in fact, the Housing stks remain BELOW their a.t. highs, as per my PSYCLE pattern, dig ?, next....
e) more general, political, misreported, incorrect, agendized, slanted, items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) most recent doomer toime from TRA NL, cites, 'running on fumes....household debt as a % of their total spending, now 12.5 %, highest since 1952", as a big pot. neg. forward....fyi, was 3 % at modern low in 1970-71 or so....and that household's expenditures on goods-svcs-tangible assets, have exceeded their cash incomes big-time, since 1998 or so....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much
better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of
other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential
emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains:
0 more Longs, neat....
and,
4 more Puts:
as you have always done, please read them carefully and VIEW their charts
carefully, to learn patterns....note, "s.o.m.", means, 'stock bt. on margin" (hypothetically)
1/2 pos. puts UB (63+ to 58+), bal. puts BPFH (28- to 22+), for VQ L % Gains....and, 1/2 pos. OIH, OSX, XOI, puts, for VVVVQ % Gains....
and/but, longs, CMOS, 1/2 pos. TQNT (fo)bd ?, UAMA bd ?, bal. SEBL fobd ?, bal. RPMM bd ?, fo ?, and, puts, , for quick, mostly very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio ....are you learning the pattern ? if not, why not ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not
on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
again, "just get real close" to
suggested prices:
1/3 AGEN @ 6 3/4 ?, 1/3 AMCC ?, BE ? eh, RNVS fobd ? eh, 1/3 CVG opb ?,
v.s.t.-only, buy long, DJIA @ 10,000, SPY @ 114, and, 1/3 RNVS db @ 6 7/8-, 1/3 WIW @ 12.60 eh div., SKIL dsto @ 3, 1/3 KR @ 15 5/8, 1/2 calls SWY @ 18+, PSY @ 20 5/8 big div., 1/2 pos. ACCL @ 5+, 1/3 UMC non 3.18, 1/3 MSO @ 20 ? fobd ?, C.AY.U @ 11 3/4 big div., 1/3 ACTI. @ 5 3/8 non, 1/3 UIS (fo)bd ?,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): STTS fobd, cb, RPMM bd ?, 1/4 SINX @ 0.02- super spec, 1/3 SOHU again @ 0.175, wc, 1/3 pos. IRSN @ 1.60+ non, yes, 1/3 UAMA @ 0.09+ bd ?, 1/2 PLXS @ 10.2, 1/3 ETLT @ 0.40+ spec, fobd, CLTK @ 0.70+ fobd....and, SPRT @ 4.80 + ? eh....csb RMBS 19 % recons @ 90, w/RMBS @ 13+ firm, LSCC @ 4 3/8, SUNW opbas....
remember, near major market turns/bottoms, you have been taught many times,
to "stick around and give stocks a bit more leeway, as to 'fobd's', etc.,
continuing to stay in, diversify more, allow for more risk, etc.", yes ? hence
the questions about 'fobd's', and buys that say 'fobd', right ? but some normal,
usual, QSL's still occur and are accepted along the way with no emotion nor
incompleting trading my way, right ? you're welcome....
*** Important: took, CGFW cbd, ESST, ACTI bd, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.".... we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
1/2 OIH @ 96+, 1/3 OSX @ 13, XOI @ 850, (all oil svc. stks, dig ?)
GP @ 38, AIV @ 39, STI. @ 74, DKS @ 37, EC @ 31-, RE @ 90-, EXPD @ 53+, to,
1/2 MSO (see above) @ 37, 1/4 EBAY @ 43+, EWJ @ 11, the 10-yr. bond @ 113, maybe even the major stk. indexes, like, INDU @ 11,000 or so, SPY @ 121+ fobo, COMPX @ 2100-, BPFH bo, no ?, EVG @ 41+, CVX @ 60++,
"Repeats":
BKMU @ 12+,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, herein)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit ....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", DAL, RNVS fobd ?, PRTR ?, CPN fobd ?, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, OIX, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs (obviously, they were removed from sec. (7).... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., and/or strong(er):
also be sure to VIEW charts of all given winners lately from last few NL's, to
learn the patterns yet again:
several nice pops among given-from-lows techs:
SKIL 3.95 up 0.99 nice, PLXS 12.33 up 2.00 nice, DJIA 10,260, SPY 116.50, PLXS 10.90, KR 15.94, up/further since last NL here....
and, these are either pulling back, or bouncing, after expected pb's already occuring/occured:
UIS 6.34 pb, wc, STTS 5.75 (B), 6.34, 5.55 (B), DJIA 10,040, 10,219, 10,040, 10,196, SPY 114.4 pb, 115.9, PLXS 11.66 pb, NYB 17.24 (B), 17.73, ACCL 4.95 cb,m 5.25, LSCC 4.24 (B), 4.55....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must strengthen" or
else, yes ?)
UIS 6.30 bd ?, UMC 3.34 up (sos) ? ny, DXY 83.34 pb, UAMA bd msa !, SPRT, PMCS sos, RPMM 0.13 (B) non, LENSE sos, and, DSS stbd, LSCC 4.31 (B) big pb, msa, cbopb ?, RMBS 15. up, mss, MSO 19.50 non, hold IRSN, bopb....and SEBL 8.67 dn, sos...and TQNT sos, or fobd ?....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
UB 58 dn 2, OIH 96.3, 88.9, OSX 139, 128.8, XOI 850, 807, CVX 51.68 bd, hah, down/lower since last time here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
these must
weaken anew:
OIH 127 up, OSX 131.6 up, XOI 821 up, TGT, AIV, STI. +1 1/2, RE 86 up, 82, 84, 82++, BKMU dn, fobo, MCO +2, UB +2, BPFH sow, EC +1 1/2 mwa, are and/or up/dn, bouncing, when/and they should be falling more ....and, crude back dn to 53.5, then 56, and then 49.8 (cow) !, GLD 436 up 3, eh....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
*** in
lieu of IGR here, just do those individual stocks below, they tend to be depessed....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added:
added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
note how many
previously-given 'fobd's' are being re-added !
'opbo', means 'on pullback
only', yes ?
I removed a bunch more....then added some fobd's and new ones,
as usual....as you have been taught, be patient and selective:
of course, from
here, most are ONLY on/after pb's, yes ?
but, now, 10/5, many are already up, so only buying them near lows - but you knew that....
obviously, many have already bounced, so oopbo for most, yes ?
added, EGY opbo, ELY obpboas, to, PRTR, UNTD eh, CVG opbo l.t., RNVS db, ICOS fobd, THC, CMOS fobd ?, CLZR, CMLS, IDNX opbo, MLNM dlt, NFLX, UIS lto, (fo)bd ?, KR ny, to, CPN l.t. db ?, DAL near 3 ? ny, PLXS opb, BWNG ?, UAMA bd ?, UMC (fo)bd, SOHU opbo, SINX fobd, TXEO another super spec. ?, PCLE tln, STTS, SKIL opbo, PKS ltp ?, RPMM bd ? fobd ?, LSCC opbo, ADCT obpbo, SPRT fobd ?, SEHO opbo, IRSN non, CLTK fobd, SUNW ?, held....
also, 4/20+, am adding, KKD as pot. db, BE l.t. db ?, HLIT ovsold ?, AMCC l.t. db ?, JDSU l.t. db ?, around here, we shall C,
and, including, for pot. price rises, plus pot. high-dividends/interest while
you wait ?
added, GM div. 7.7 % @ 26 ?, WIW opb, NYB fobd, to, PSY, PMCS 15 % recons, eh, opbo, DCS nah, ZF obpbo, EVC obpbo, RMBS 19 % recons w/RMBS @ 14- db, to,
and, still been watching 2 cdn. o & g. royalty trusts, C.AY.U, and C.NAE.U, (APF energy trust, & NAL o & g trust), but both are already up around 11 and 13++ now, so too high ?, yielding 15 % each here anyway ?, eh, tln ?,
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
note: as always, because so many patterns have changed, be sure to view
each of these, B4 acting on any !, recent drops to s.t. support means only 'put' these after rallies towards highs, right ?, so removed a bunch, with recent drops....and may remove more, so chk. charts B4 considering:
note, finally removed some stks which had, obviously, already worked big-time, or broken out, belatedly....
and, by Mon. 4/21, too late to PUT many already-given ones, which R already down, dig ?, see above....
added, MHK, MCO, EXPD, ACF ?, AIV, CME oso, RE, GP, STI, TGT, DKS, EC, UB, and, extended Banks, Finls, Leisure, Gaming, Flour/Grain/food, REITs, to, INDU, SPY, COMPX, (oso), fobo, EWJ, and most bonds on strength only, XMSR ?, SBUX ? (see above), EVG, BKMU bo ?....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order,
and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops:
added, Extended: (for I.G.'s, please see sec. (2) above, from now on, , all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs.... this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas
section....
general note: as per my teachings, WITHIN some industry groups, there
may be bpth, extendeds, and depresseds, as recently, certainly normal....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES