1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Here we go again ? Well, we are, unfortunately, back to a real miffy,
unclear "market"....On one hand, more and more of our "previously depressed"
stocks are already up to resistance levels, and/or their 200 DMA's, and,
therefore ready for a rest....On the other hand, many "extended" stocks
(especially Internets), even though some are already down, still have yet to break their still-existing "neclines/support" from the last 2 months or so....So, amazingly, until/unless the "Extendeds" break recent support, believe it or not, this thing may get dragged out still farther....oy. Why the Internets have not broken completely, is beyond me....But, again, they represent just two or three industries, out of over 150, around....But do note, how my giving out "interest-sensitive I.G.'s near lows, has paid off for you....Most of our Utils., REIT's, Insur., stocks up nicely....
Also, Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL
applicable, staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable,
"PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever
I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of,
for YOUR educational/trading benefit....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able,
stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And note, the
"Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in sections (2). Longer lists
and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7)....and all "follow-ups", are in
sections (4) and (5). If you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5),
you can chosse to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL
"sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage.
Obviously, if "YOU" choose not to want certain types of stocks/plays, like
real cheapies, or Puts, etc., or YOU choose not to learn how to do certain things
better, it is your choice to do so, but realize, that other valued subscribers DO
want them. You have to weigh, your time, against the significant value of
learning my patterns of lifetime benefit. There ARE more than a few subscribers
who are even successfully trading some of the stocks I 'miss' herein, because
THEY are VIEWING the charts....'nuff said.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1)
note the DJ. Util. Avg. now up to over 314, as I was, again, the first/only to predict here at recent lows for you....but is now coming into decent overhead resistance, in the 315-317 area.... 2) I was, again, among the first/only, to have timed the depressed Golds, and, now, maybe, the depressed Foods, longs, and Extended Banks/Insur., as puts, herein, for you....note, those two I.G.'s are bi-polar, that is, I find buyable depresseds, AND puttable extended stocks, in the same I.G., rare, but we never fight the patterns/tape.... 3) I am/was recently also, the first/only, to suggest a S.T. top in Asian Indexes, and Heng Seng and Korea, now join Nikkei., IMHO....and, I don't like "linking" as you know, but, their tops, may jive, with the "U.S. Dollar high/top" I have also been suggesting to you recently herein.... 4) the Amex Oil Index did make a new slight recovery high....but is this a possible "fakeout breakout" at this extended stage ? ....5) cash Cotton is rising, so my recent chart reading seems to be correct there also ....realize, that, almost to the day from when I suggested a 20+/year low in the "CRB" index, we have never gone lower....now over 194 (up from 183), when/if gets over 194+, the CRB itself may break out, but I am not expecting that on this move, yet....and cash Gold still has overhead resistance in the 290-295 area, so expect to sell some S.T. on further strength, and do NOT expect this rise to be "the big one", yet....there will likely be yet another pullback, first, for these after S.T. highs up ahead....of course, the "gold stocks" do not automatically move with the "gold commodity", right ? and, the XAU index itself has overhead resistance in the 76, then 80, levels, at currently 74+ already, dig ? ....6) I also added some rare depressed Insurance stocks Long, to go with the depressed Food stocks, that I may end up being the first to suggest as well....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper comments from the
Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) Thu. 29th, 8:50 am, Bill Griffith, CNBC,
correctly called "OXHP" a "fallen angel", but then he ruined it, by saying, "how far can it fall ?"....when, in fact, I gave it as a buy last year around $ 6+.,
herein, for you, and it has since RISEN to over $ 23., yes ? So, it is not
"down" at all ! and, it is way "up" since CNBC and people they interviewed back then all incorrectly said, that OXHP stock "was going to continue to be in trouble till things turn around"....the pattern never changes.... 2) CNBC's Bob Pisani., Fri. 30th, 8:55 am, said, regarding supposed stock price volatility, "it's not going to go away, folks.... high volatility is here for good." Consuela Mack rebutted, "actually, I have been told that recent volatility is nothing compared with that during the late 1920's". ...3) CNBC, Fri. 30th, announced all day, that, when/if the Dow hit 11,000 , they would have a "special show"....I have only one question - why ? There are times I wish someone would pull the plug on them.... 4) I know this is political junk, but recent headline, O.C. Register, 4/30, "Massive demonstration in China seeks right of expression", reported "only" 10,000 people demonstrating in Beijing that day....regardless of one's opinions, that is hardly "massive", dig ? Just Media-created sensationalizing.... 5) I'm sure you saw the headlines, Sat. 2nd: "Amazon.com drops on loss forecasts"....as predicted here ? Stock still must break "necline/support"....yet, only one B-firm lowered their ratings on AMZN, and that one only to "buy' from "strong buy"....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.:
1) the pres. of "CPWR" on CNBC, Fri. 30th, 10:40 am, said, regarding, in his
opinion, overblown Y2K fears, "everyone will be covering their ears waiting for a
big pop, and nothing much will happen", and, "my company has been in the sweet
spot for the last 3 or 4 years, and expect to remain there for the next 3 or 4
years"....Remember, I gave out CPWR near its low, early 1996 for huge gain (then
took a Q, S loss not calling its top, much higher), when Wall St. disliked all
these types of companies' stocks ....view its long depressed base, on its 5-year
chart....and see how now that everyone loves it, it has a parabolic chart.... 2) "BGP" fell "because they are going to focus on stores, not the WW web....tripling out internet sales wouldn't do anything for our profit." wow. Prescient words ?
d) more, late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1)
Thu. 29th, 12:25 pm, Ron Insana shockingly led-in an interview with Laszlow
Birinyi, by incorrectly saying, "he has been perfect for years"
(wow)....nope....then, L.B. said, "recent broadening of industry groups means
nothing with respect to 'the market'" (huh ? wrong), and, "we really like BRK.A,
CMB, and BAC, JPM, here, as new buys"....Gee, I had given you, JPM, CMB, and,
then added BAC, BRK.A, to my put list....he still says "Dow 12,000", and, "the
internets are not done on the upside yet"....so let's fade him, yes ? ....2) Ticker magazine, May issue: BancBoston adds GNE @ 85+, as having "the best risk-to-reward profile in the industry"....PiperJaffrey adds BGEN @ 117, "eps est. +41 % from 1998"....They also highlight "Retail" stocks as super buys, listing, AEOS, BBBY, BBY, DG, HD, IBI., KSS, LOW, ORLY, TIF, TJX, WMT, among "their best stocks, screened fundamentally"....yup, they are all on my "PSYCLE sm" potential Put lists, yes ? And, Maria Bartiromo's column "Has Japan Bottomed ?" (late, as sual, right ?), said Merrill Lynch just began recent buys, on Japan stocks, like, MBK, NTT, though they are already up/extended (i.e., MER is late, dig ?).... Merrill's Gus Fliakos trimmed his estimates for the Oil Services companies, saying, "with shares depressed, investors with a 12-18-month horizon might now condsider buying the better-positioned companies"....Excuse me ? Aren't you a little late, guy ? O.S. stocks are already up +50 to +100% recently, yes ? And he is still, not only hedging, and late, and missed the lows, he also says its O.K. to buy them up here....And he gets paid for this ? Last, same mag. still, Ralph Acampora said, "my advice is to buy GE up here and go home and relax." he also likes, WMT, AMGN, PFE, C., MRK....so, let's fade all of these entities/people ....
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. BMC (4+ to 9+) for Q 166% Gain....bal. stk.on.mgn. MRVC
(6+ to 11+) for VQ 150% G....1/2 pos. puts WCOM (96+ to 82+) for VQ 100% G....1/2
pos. stk.on.mgn. FLH (8+ to 12++) for 90% G....1/2 pos. stock BDT (3+ to 6+) for
VQ 100% G....1/2 pos. puts TER (58 to 48) for VVQ 100% G....bal. stock DSGIF (
to ) for Q % G....1/2 pos. puts WMT (51+ to 45) for VVQ 80% G....1/2 pos.
stk.on.mgn. CELL (5+ to 7+) for VQ 66% G....1/2 pos. puts CMGI. (283 to 237) for
VVQ 66% G....1/2 pos. puts TFSM ( to ) for VQ % G....1/2 pos. calls SYC ( to ) for % G...1/2 pos. puts BSYS (57+ to 50+) for VQ % G....1/2 pos. puts CREE ( to 40) for VQ % G....css ARMHY (37- to 32+) for VVQ 22% G....also refer back to last three sets of NL's sales here....
and/but, longs, none, and, puts, VLSI., ss KIDE, for very quick, very small losses, of little overall consequence to a properly diversified portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy any Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their
patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just
buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with
less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent,
for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions"
have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) EGR @ 21, GLDR @ 1.06, LDW @ 6+, PNW @ 38--, REL @ 7 7/16, SAFC @ 39+, SPC @ 29-, (note, some higher-priced blue chips), and,
"Repeats": (note list shrinking, as expected, as many pop) ADGO @ 3 11/16,
AIMM @ 1 15/16, AZC @ 9/16, BAL @ 2 5/16, BGO @ 5/8, BMG @ 2 11/16, CAU @
0.20, CBJ @ 3 13/16, CCH @ 0.28, CDV @ 2 7/8, CHB @ 18++, CNJ @ 15+, CNU @ 0.46,
DAY, EAR @ 9/16, ECO @ 1 11/16, ESH @ 5.06, FOTO @ 3+, GRERF @ 0.28, GSR @ 3/4,
HDG @ 1.06, IPIC @ 2 5/8, KEG @ 3 3/8, KMAG @ 3 5/8, KRY @ 5/8, LWN @ 1., NGX @
0.53, PAGE 3 13/16, PRD @ 19 3/4, SCG @ 22++, SCY @ 4, SEV @ , SOC @ 5+, SXTN
@ 5+, UFC @ 21, UMR @ 11/16, VGZ @ 0.175, WIX @ 3 7/8....most are still EVB's,
bases, and/or low-priceds... ."buy (only) low", right ? but not really that
great a list, as I had intimated recently....
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein,
countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT
"just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some
stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes
over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at
times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up
those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for
you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already
moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many
subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and
there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching"
NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly:
the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, SPC, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list,
before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL. LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) AXP @ 138, BAC @
75, BRK.A @ 78- (times 10), CMB @ 86, DCLK @ 149, EGRP @ 120, FLT @ 44++, IBI. @ 50+, NZT @ 41++, OTEX @ 39++, QCOM @ 215, RGIS @ 26+, XOMD @ 43-, WCII. @ 49+....
("Repeats"): AFS @ 45, FS @ 42+, HTN @ 45+, LLL @ 49+, MFNX @ 85, MSS @ 8, ORBK @ 50-, PE @ 27++, SBA @ 26+, UNFY @ 15+....
and/but, took, FITB, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as
they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off,
here)....any new highs = off the puts list....
IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web
site, a stock might break its extended S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed
EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy, or
put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still Added, as above....So I
am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying
any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and
therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted....this takes
just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues
which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then
incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the process is Your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", PTSI., RDRT, THP, NOW, TRI., MNY, GRT, HCC, LFG, PIR, JH, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, TEVIY, FDS, EQ, YUM, VIA.B, CSGS, ZION, AMO, ISCA, GLW, TECH, ATI., HDI., IPG, HD, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs.... Every single stock here was specifically given herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
FOTO 3 7/8 up 3/4, SWW 3 7/8 up 3/4, GDC 3 3/8 up 1/2, BDT 6 1/2 up 1 3/8 (sos), COE 6 1/8 up 3/4, FLH 13 5/8 up 2 1/4 (sos), AAC 7 up 3/4, ARW 18 3/4 up 2, CBJ 4 1/8 up 3/8, EGR 22 7/8 up 2 1/8, SXTN 6 up 5/8, REL 7 7/8 up 5/8, PRD 21 3/8 up 1 5/8, FHCC 17 up 1, RML 23 3/8 up 1, SCG 24 1/2 up 7/8, NSP 24 5/8 up 1, SUB 43 5/8 up 1 1/4, ASL 9 1/4, PPW 16 3/4, ARM 14 3/8, SAFC 41 1/4 up 2, PNW 38 7/8 up 1 3/8, BOY 15 3/4, MANH 10 7/8, MMWW 20 3/8, SUB 43 3/4 up 1, SYC 16 3/8 (sos), NPSI. 17, XTR 41 3/4, SCZ 15 7/8, WTT 2 7/8, BBA 6 7/8, BXH 6 3/8, HEC 2 3/8, HM 9 3/4, ICO 9 3/4, CPU 7 5/8, BYX 4 1/8, SOC 5 5/8, TE 21 7/8, IGT 18 1/8, UFC 22, ALN 10 1/8, FCN, MGN, UMR, BGO, up/further, just since last time here....
and, For the last time: note, ORCL, hit 50 DMA, and, BDT, WYG, ANDW, PZN, ACK, ARW, BFO, HMT, hit their 200 DMA....and, LOD, FCN, SYC, BOY, LMT, TMO, AN,
STEI., approaching their 200 DMA....and, NEM, hit 24+ (sos), ASA 19+, PCAR 60+, CIR 24+, NWAC 34+, PAM 8, GW 2 1/2, CHK 2 3/8, SIL 13+ (S), OMPT 18, SAP 32+, COB 8-, UTI. 13+, ULB 4 5/8, NSS 8+, NR 9+, MCH 27, OS 17, SNT 38-, TXI. 31, WLM 14+, WND 12-, PPP 19+, FGI. 20, ROH 45, COT 22, ICN 34, AIN, LZ 28, NX 26, N. 19, HPC 38+, RDC 16+, VNT 29, CYM 16, WII. 35, IGL, AG, MAH, AR, FBG, MSX, NS, BJS, FGI., THP, SAP, all higher still....all given you near their lows, herein....wow....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some subscribers,
who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds
for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above,
you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and
what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....always view the
one-year daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, WS 2 3/8 up 3/8, SEV 4 1/4 up 1/2, CELL 6, AAM 1 5/8, RJF 22 1/4, KMAG, AAC 6 1/2, PSSI. 10 3/8, 11 3/8, KNE 21 1/4 up 3/4, AOI., MANH, WDC 8 3/4, FRTE, NPSI., KEG 3 1/4, GDC 2 7/8, TAROF, RTC, SAMC, SFSK, ADGO, IPIC, TBP, AFCI., IFMX, NSD, HIV, ESC, UQM, WWW, MWY, HDG, SEV, SYBS, AGU, CNU, APFC, PNW, OMM, ORI., OCN, TXB, CCH, EEX, BS, and/but, "the T-bond" 122+ up 2+, but then -2....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) (note, this list is still Shrinking, get it ?)
"T-Bond", BXH, FHCC, AAC, TMAR, RJF, ANDW, KMAG, ADGO, IGT, AIMM, CNU, CDV, WIX, IMFX, SEV, TXB, TPS, AFCI., APFC, EAR, CHB, PFC, KEG, NSD, LWN, EEX, TTEC, WIX, SOC, RYO, BLM, BKI., ECO, DAY, BGO, FLM, MCL, CAU, MSN, AM, BS, WH, cheap golds.
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
DCLK
-16, BTY -8, AXP -8 1/2, MTNT -7 1/2 (sow), EGRP -7, QCOM -7, COST -5, GILTF -4 1/2 (sow), PAYX +1 1/2, -4 1/2, VRTY -4 1/4, BAC -4, CMB -3, IBI. -3, OTEX -2 1/2, USAI. -3 1/2, LVCI. -2, FM -2, DISH +5, -8, +3, -8, ECILF -2 1/4, WCOM -2 (S), QWST -3, +3, -2, UNFY -1 1/4, XOMD -1 3/8, FLT -1 1/2, PCLE -1, TFSM -1 (sow), CNMD -1 (sow), MCD -1, CMB -1, TEVIY, ASML -1 1/2, AFS -1, LZRC -2, ANET -1 1/4, WMT -2 1/2, LOW -1, +2, TR -2, BBY -2, AJG -1, PGTV, VCELA, PSIX, FS, down/further, just since last time here ....then, getting some V.S.T. dead-cat bounces Thu. off lows....
also, MCK got killed, anew, and, PFE, STE, ALO, RX, BMET, SYKE, down
further....and, MRK, AMAT, CTL, FMY, BSYS, MTNT, GILTF, CNMD, GENZ, approached
their 200 DMA....and, ARMHY, TFSM, CREE, ABOV, fell to their 50 DMA....gave you
all near highs herein....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On next Weakness,
towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously long Puts right
near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned,
for Your Benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little
time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....
let them do their thing.
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow):
again, we need to see many stocks break below recent lows/necklines, and, so
far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)"
sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after
"bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not
break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each
stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see"
previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn
patterns from.
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot" of stocks to review here, especially in the next two
sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times, right ?
View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT "chase
up".... only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their lows,
with stops for protection.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
*** Note, these lists are likely to shrink, due
to recent price rises....
Prec.Metals (GSR, NGX, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DRFNY, DAY, AZC, BGO, all real
cheapies, riskier, some may need more work/time, added more below as well)
Energy and Oil Svc. (UMR, MHR, SEV, KEG, etc., near their recent lows Only,
and, more stocks, as below, on bigger pullbacks, ahead)
Biotech/Health/Medical (BAL, FHCC, TXB, EAR, AOI., SHG)
"Staffing/Employment" (JOB, OLS, ASIS, MPS, too late for some already)
other Computer/Techs: (ATV, WTT, MTSI., CELL, note, fewer now)
R.E.I.T./finance/Healthcare/Utilities, potential high-yield-plus (add, GLB, HRP, NI., PRT, to, SCG, NSP, CIN, GPU, AHE, NCE, PNW, NHI., PPW, NHP, ARM, BOY, DTE, CEI., TRI., HCR, TCO)....note, this I.G. section has grown....
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy
list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": SPC, --- were taken Off
....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly
....for one thing, we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm"
stage 7", first, and/or more fully formed "bases", yes ?
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, BEZ, CNC, DSL, MMG, LFG, PIR, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) AAM, ABH, ADGO, AIMM, AMD, AN, ATV,
AVGLY, BAL, BGP, BKI., BMG, BYX, CBJ, CDV, CEXP, CNJ, CNU, CPU, CS, CWC, DHC, DRFNY, EAR, ESH, FHCC, FLM, FNL, GDC, GLDR, GRERF, HDG, HEC, HM, HNV, HOC, IO., IPIC, KEG, LWN, MIDI., MNY, MSN, MU, MWY, MXG, OCN, PAGE, PAH, PENN, PFC, PRD, RDRT, RTC, SAFC, SAMC, SCY, SGU, SHOW, SOC, SSN, SWW, TBP, TIE, TTRIF, TWA, UDG, UFC, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....
New, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: added, HTCH, ONPT, DATM, GISH, PBY,
IRSN, NOW, QSII., PSFT, PRCM, SAVLY, SVRN, CHRZ, GHM, MCK, TGX, ZAP, SVM, "Foods", to, AM, REL, CBRL, CAG, KMAG, LDW, TRI., WLT, WDC, GHV, TCO, NOV, PAA, KE, ISSI., as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....again, NOT Yet, but just to briefly give you an idea of what may be coming....oh, and some "Food-oriented' stocks should begin to bottom ahead, just watching for now....
and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these
above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't
"force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the
less-known ones....
Remember, this is primarily just a "watching to possibly buy" list !!! They
only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, when/if they decline
towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over
time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns
? This is a positive, not a negative....note, we re-added some previously given
names, above here....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?):
note, these lists are likely
to shrink, as issues fall from their highs lately....
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Medical: AGPH, GNE, etc.
Internet-oriented: YHOO, CNET, GNET, AOL, CMGI., MSPG, EGRP, etc.
Retail: CM, PSUN, TOM, TJX, BBY, IBI., DG, etc.
Insurance/Banks: AFS, AXP, CMB, FLT, IPG, JPM, LNC, MBK, MMC, PL, etc.
Commun./Cable: DISH, COX,
(all other "internets/techs/computer/telecom/bells, etc." are in two lists just below, though, "computer enterprise software" stocks seem especially toppy)
**** new ones: added, ANF, BAC, CNXT, CUST, DG, EGRP, FLT, FON, GLW, GMST, HDI., HRZ, IDPH, IDTC, INSUA, IPG, LEVL, LNC, MBK, MMC, PL, SCF, TEVIY, TLAB, VERT, VRIO, WCII., to,
("repeats") ABOV, ADVP, AFS, AJG, AOL, ATI., AWRE, AXP, BBY, BID, BUD, CMB, CMGI., CNET, CNCX, COST, COVD, CSCO, DISH, EFII., FM, FS, GBLX, GNE, HTN, IBI., INKT, ISCA, ITVU, JPM, LVCI., LVLT, LZRC, MKL, MSPG, MSS, MTNT, MTP, NTLI., NZT, ORBK, ORLY, PAYX, PCLE, PGTV, PSIX, PSUN, QWST, RGIS, SBA, SCAI., TECH, TEVIY, TSG, UIHIA, UNPH, UNFY, USAI., VIGN, VLSI., VOD, VRSN, WAT, XCIT, YUM....note, more Bank, Retail, Internet, Insur., Travel, Cable, Insur., Bells, stocks....and, more "names from before"....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: added, "bell telephone", "cruise/travel", to, "Laser Vision",
Online Brokerage and Banking, Retail, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech,
Insurance/Finance/Banking (though some Banks iffy, and some Insur. longs),
Entertainment, Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and all
Tele.-Commun., some Airlines, near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above
their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable
stocks....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: recent action has, again, shown/proven the value,
of "Ind. Grp. Rotation"....one I.G. moves, then the next, etc., over time....the
Gamings, then, Oil Services, then, Basic Industries, then, Cyclicals, then Golds,
then Utilities, rising, while, first, the Utilities/T-bond, then the Drugs, then
the Biotechs, and now, maybe the Internets, each fell, etc. Of interest/import,
some rose, while others fell, simultaneously, exactly as taught in my "I.G.R."
booklet (re-read it)....we even had "catch-up" moves....neat....Sure, we've had
some Q, S losses along the way, but, my helping you learn the patterns, is
certainly worth many thousands of dollars to you the rest of your life, yes ?
Don't you know other nice people you might recommend receive my output formally ?
Please let them, and me, know I am here for them as well, thanks....
* The following several paragraphs are in every NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding, and
giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have not
had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from 12/7/98 NL, through
the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any
time....hope they helped....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3)
and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops, and July '98 tops, and drops, have
proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my
main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match
my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously,
have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things,
properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you
actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE
you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows,
for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming
you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from
the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....