1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) once again, I was the first/only to Put Energies and Utilities....so what else is new....well, actually, impressed that a few B-firms are actually lowering their opinions on them, near highs, very unusual, neat....maybe they get my output ? nah....I have definitely been the best around to foresee S.T. moves in these 2 groups, the last several years.... NO one else has done these 2 groups....nor, the Steels, Gaming, Golds, Leisure, Trans./RR, etc., as we have.... 2) also, already up a bunch off ridiculous-scary lows, the Internet ICGE, CMGI, etc., were finally mentioned Wed. by Pisani.... 3) but many given-herein-at-lows Semi. stocks are approaching their Jan. highs, so lighten up even further in those....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) after initial pullbacks Thu., Pisani said, "nobody is even remotely concerned about it....", even with several 'weaker-than-expected-crummy' economic items out....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) listening to more yutzes in Govt. blather about a new 'commission to revamp soc. sec., Wed., realize tax rate has risen from 2 % a while ago to over 12 % now, and, nuot mentioned as usual, watch for us to pay a LOT more to keep that skewed system afloat, yes ? ....2) and, 'fundamentally', seriously, I laughed when I heard all day Wed., that, lo and behold, the greedy bastards in the Energy ind., are sitting on higher supplies than they led the ignorant overpaid people in the financial and media areas to believe - and, of course, only another 200 mmm nice people....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) a big Ned Davis technician guy, Tim hay, whose T.,R. we are not told, has just gone bullish, from neutral, have gone kinda negative last year correctly....of course, he is certainly a bit late, now....he likes retail best (late/high), and still dislikes Techs. (missed them, of course, already).... 2) wish I had known that Barrons cover 4/16 had overrated and not-very-good but shockingly fortunate-business-wise-still, Richard Russell, Dow Theory guy, "SELL ALL STOCKS NOW"...geez, if I had known that, I would have been even more bullish than I already was....another good "PSYCLE sm" signal, though ....learn the pattern which rarely changes....oh, and recall, he became phenomenally bearish in his early Nov. 1987 NL, but you already knew that....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ?
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
another 15 to 20 quick large % Gains for you: all stk.on.mgn. NOPT (5+ to 11+) for Q 200% G....bal. calls TSM (17 to 25-) for Q 175% Gain....bal. stk.on.mgn. KNT (14+ to 22+) for L.T. 111% G...all stk.on.mgn. HPOW (5++ to 9++) for Q 133% G....all stk.on.mgn. APCS (10 to 16+) for VVQ 111% G....bal. calls N (14+ to 18++) for 111% G....all stk.on.mgn. GILTF (10- to 16-) for VVVQ 111% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. DCLK (10 to 14) for VQ 75% G.... bal. stk.on.mgn. CC (10 to 15-) for VQ 90% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. BCGI (6++ to 11+) for L.T. 133% G....all calls CTV (15+ to 19+) for Q 100% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. AV (11 to 15+) for VVQ 75% G....bal. calls TG (15 to 19+) for Q 100% G....all calls GTW (15 to 20-) for VVQ 125% G....1/2 pos. calls MTP (12 to 15-) for VVQ 90% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. AKS (9- to 13+) for 85% G....at least 1/2 pos. puts NOI (40- to 33-) for VVVQ 75% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. RSTA (7+ to 10+) for VVQ 75% G....1/2 bal. pos. stk.on.mgn. PMTC (8+ to 12-) for L.T. 80% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. PGO (9- to 11+) for VVVQ 60% G....1/2 pos. puts APA (66 to 56) for VVVQ 66% G....1/2 pos. puts NBR (60+ to 54+) for VVVQ % G....1/2 pos. puts EPG (70- to 64) for VVVQ 25% G....
and/but, longs, INSP (6 1/8 to 2- to 5 1/2), and, puts, RFMD, ADVP, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. OPTV @ 8.6, 1/3 pos. RMBS @ 16,
1/2 pos. ABF @ 8++, 1/2 pos. ATTC @ 29+, 1/2 pos. EPNY @ 8++, 1/3 pos. EXTD @ 9++, ITCD @ 5, 1/2 pos. MRD @ 16+, 1/2 pos. NT @ 14++, 1/2 pos. PLD @ 20-, 1/2 pos. POP @ 12+, 1/2 pos. TCC @ 11+, WGRD @ 6+,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AVX @ 17++, BCU @ 5/8, BGO @ 0.405, CPQ @ 16++, DSS @ 11+, FNV @ 1.55, 1/2 pos. GRA @ 1 1/2, HLIT @ 4+, HNV @ 0.29, IOM @ 3+, KFY @ 15++, KGC @ 0.46, KRY @ 3/4, LENS @ 6, MPH @ 15, MSLV @ 8+, NTOP @ 7+, STG @ 0.56, PPE @ 10-, SHRP @ 8+, SRM 12+, TRLY @ 8+, UAXS @ 5, UTHR @ 11, VGZ @ 0.08, VOXX @ 7+...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, RMBS ?, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms ....or tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): BA @ 64+, 1/2 pos. DEO @ 42+, TXU @ 43++, 1/3 pos. UTX @ 79+,
BWA @ 45+, FCX @ 14+, 1/2 pos. FCX/A @ 12++, 1/2 pos. MMM @ 121+, PX @ 48++, 1/2 pos. UNM @ 30, 1/2 pos. UTX @ 79+, 1/2 pos. VAR @ 70-, 1/3 pos. WWY @ 49-,
ASD @ 60+, CHG @ 44++, CIN @ 35+, 1/2 pos. CNI. @ 38, ICCI. @ 28+, 1/2 pos. EAT @ 29+, PB @ 18-, 1/2 pos. PX @ 48+, TOY @ 26,
"Repeats": BWS @ 20+, CHD @ 25, CNT @ 47+, CV @ 16+, D. @ 70-, EXC @ 69+, KMI. @ 58++, ORI. @ 29, UVV @ 39++,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, SERO, DVA ?, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", LVLT, RSTA, MFNX, MIPS, SCMR, PWER, SONE, EXDS, GX, CAS (fobd), as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CEFT, SMH, UNT, UCL, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein ....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern, more:
wow, what a continuing great recent period for us....still many more Long Gains for you:
HPOW 9.55 up 1.85 (S), NOPT 11.05 up 2 (sos), AWRE 9.0 up 1.37, EPNY 10.75 up 2.16, SHRP 10 up 2.2, GRA 2.16 up 0.18, CLTK 12.81 up 1.69, OPTV 9.87 up 1.47, HA 3.13 up 0.25, MSLV 10.80 up 1.97, BKHM 5.55 up 0.55, DITC 13.88 up 1.38, APCS 16.4 up 2.4 (S), ITCD 6 up 1/2, NMSS 8.4 up 0.8, CPQ 18.3 up 1.7, NT 17.1 up 1.7, RMBS 17.88 up 1.88, HIFN 17.5 up 1.2, MPH 16.26 up 1.36, AVX 19.15 up 1.49, EPNY 10.52 up 0.87,
still more (as usual): MRD 17.7, PMTC 12.07, SAWS 26 3/4 up 1 1/4 (sos), PGO 11.35, DCLK 14, LUX 14.95, DSS 12.05, AKS 13.38 (S), KNT 22.9 (S), TSM 24.8 (S), POP 13.9, CTV 19.85 (S), TRLY 9.3, PPE 11.9, PRIA 19.61 up 1, GILTF 16.02 (S), MTP 14.9, IBI. 16.44, BLC 18.85 up 1, X. 19.63, LENS 6.79, TG 19.61, ITCD 6.25, AV 15.49, BCGI. 11.15 (sos), GAB 11.54, LENS 7, CRO 8.65, SVU 13.86, ATTC 30 1/2, higher since last NL here....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
as expected, most all Techs, (giving you ample opp. to buy more !), UAXS 5.17 up 0.67, MWBX, KRY, RCG, HA, HNV, VRA, TRLY 8.47, BOW 47, BELM 8.44, MLT 8.5, BCU, PRIA, VRTA 14.87 up 1.32, AWE, TG 18.3, PGO 10.3, EPNY 8.95, CPQ 16.8, SCMR 11-, ITCD 5.9, GRA 1.95, GTW, STTX, DCLK 12.5, TSTN, VGZ....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) MPH 14.9 (B), 16+, LNUX, CCRT, PAP, INSP 5.65 (S), KANA, CBJ, AWE 19.28, GRL, GSPN, STG....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
NOI. -6, APA -5 (sow), APC -4 1/2, NBR -4 3/4, EPG -5, MND -3 1/2, VAR -4 1/2, LHP -1 1/2, BA -1 1/2, DTE -1 1/2, UTX -2 3/8, EAT -1 3/8, TJX -1, CHG -1, TXU -1, D. -1, WWY -1, CIN, PX, AME, UVV, BWS, lower since last NL here....and, of course, several Energies fell to their 200 DMA....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (FRT, HCN, TCC, ARJ, TCO, JPR, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals/steel" (CBJ, KRY, STTX, KGC, etc.)
depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, most Chem., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Papers, Apparel, Regional Banks/Finls.
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, emi., comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy), T, BOL, CPQ, GX ?, WCG ?, CDO, GL, MTZ, PNK, POP, PDQ, BID, DSS, WGRD, SUPG, RMBS, PWER, CWP, NT, OPTV, ATHM, MIPS, HIFN, INFY, MONI, JDSU, HBAN, GSLI, XTND, INKT, CLTK, CMNT, EPNY, to, HWP ?, CLX, PRD, LUX, ADTK, ARBA, DZTK, ERICY, LENS, SCMR, SSSW, SONE, HLIT, GILTF, ITCD, LTBG, MFNX, ITWO, NMSS, INCY, LVLT, EAS, RSH, AV, MTP, PR, MSLV, RSTA, ACTM, AWRE, PSEM, SRM, PWAV, PRIA, FINL, HELE, KNSY, BKHM, UAXS, CTS, TRLY, GM, ABF, MRD, NTT, VG, IBI, PALM, LTD, CLRN, BRIO, ADPT, UTHR, RHAT, JDAS, BCGI, KFY, MPS, MLT, PPE, BKI, AWE, MGM, CTC, MSLV, LVLT, VRTA, AVX, IOM, EGLS, TSTN, PPE, TCC, BELM, GRA, MRD, NTOP, PDG, SVRN, CRDS, KGC, RCG, MWBX, TRAC, SNE, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, DTE, MMM, UNM, BWS, FCX/A, TXU, FCX, DJ. Util. Avg., CNI, BRK/B, STR ?, PL, WTM ?, AME, TOY, NOC, ITT ?, ASD, CIN, DVA, ESRX, BKNG, EAT, BNI, to, CHG, HCA, ORI, UVV, WSC, PB, CHD, ABM, PHCC, ITG, BSYS, COCO, HSIC, PSC, VAR, ASBC, TJX, WWY, LNCR, IVGN, CV, PPDI, PX, CNT, INSUA, MNI, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Loans, defense, Tobacco, Disc. Chains, S.E. Banks, HMO's/health care, wholesale food/bev., Aero./Def., Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services, Commercial Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Homes-related/bldg., Shoes/Apparel, Railroads, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES