Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, ended formally, back in early April 2000, with issue # 207+, a while ago....(so/but this NL is Not really being actually published formally, publically, any more, and has not been, for quite a while now ....I just wanted a place to keep track of what I would have said and done and felt, since I was forced undeservedly to stop my NL, months ago....this is ONLY for my own edification and proof of the value of my output and concepts to others), and anyone reading this has NOT gotten it from me....
dated: 8:00 am, PST, Friday, May 4, 2001


"2001: a Trading Odessey"

or, "The Patterns Rarely Change"

Important Note: this serious, very valuable "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, due to the too-often at least semi-gestapo, uncaring, ridiculous, illogical, NASD/SEC rules, and the uncaring, inconsiderate, and thoughtless nature of most all brokerage firms....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, here, twice each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance, very-long-term track record, and to offer further significant, in-advance, in-writing, 'proof' of the value and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

I did this one today earlier than usual, for your benefit....Again, I just don't understand how many of my followers have not been doing all herein from near the April lows, given its super sentiment-signals....both long and short-side....and, recently, on cue, just as 'the 95 %' get less bearish, and call for 'the end of the bear', we get little pullbacks in V.S.T.-extended issues....Of course, we have suggested taking a ton of quick large % longside Gains lately for you....and, of course, we are seeing some pullbacks, normal, as nearly everyone I read/hear/see in Media and the Investing Biz seems rather clueless again....and, of course, one cannot expect perfection forward, but seeing the continuing rotation long and short-sides, worth exploiting simultaneously....

Anyway, recent Investors Intelligence's figures showed the % of stocks above their 10-wk. MA have risen from a low of 25 % at our predicted-here-first/only lows, to over 60 % recently....and, the only negative besides pullbacks occuring along the way, is that I heard some Media recently and analysts saying "the Bear is dead"....so, still agressively planning on buying more, new depresseds, and some Puts as well, but sort of a smaller overall list on both sides, now that many longs are up, and Puts are down a bit....

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) once again, I was the first/only to Put Energies and Utilities....so what else is new....well, actually, impressed that a few B-firms are actually lowering their opinions on them, near highs, very unusual, neat....maybe they get my output ? nah....I have definitely been the best around to foresee S.T. moves in these 2 groups, the last several years.... NO one else has done these 2 groups....nor, the Steels, Gaming, Golds, Leisure, Trans./RR, etc., as we have.... 2) also, already up a bunch off ridiculous-scary lows, the Internet ICGE, CMGI, etc., were finally mentioned Wed. by Pisani.... 3) but many given-herein-at-lows Semi. stocks are approaching their Jan. highs, so lighten up even further in those....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) after initial pullbacks Thu., Pisani said, "nobody is even remotely concerned about it....", even with several 'weaker-than-expected-crummy' economic items out....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) listening to more yutzes in Govt. blather about a new 'commission to revamp soc. sec., Wed., realize tax rate has risen from 2 % a while ago to over 12 % now, and, nuot mentioned as usual, watch for us to pay a LOT more to keep that skewed system afloat, yes ? ....2) and, 'fundamentally', seriously, I laughed when I heard all day Wed., that, lo and behold, the greedy bastards in the Energy ind., are sitting on higher supplies than they led the ignorant overpaid people in the financial and media areas to believe - and, of course, only another 200 mmm nice people....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) a big Ned Davis technician guy, Tim hay, whose T.,R. we are not told, has just gone bullish, from neutral, have gone kinda negative last year correctly....of course, he is certainly a bit late, now....he likes retail best (late/high), and still dislikes Techs. (missed them, of course, already).... 2) wish I had known that Barrons cover 4/16 had overrated and not-very-good but shockingly fortunate-business-wise-still, Richard Russell, Dow Theory guy, "SELL ALL STOCKS NOW"...geez, if I had known that, I would have been even more bullish than I already was....another good "PSYCLE sm" signal, though ....learn the pattern which rarely changes....oh, and recall, he became phenomenally bearish in his early Nov. 1987 NL, but you already knew that....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ?

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....

"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:


another 15 to 20 quick large % Gains for you: all stk.on.mgn. NOPT (5+ to 11+) for Q 200% G....bal. calls TSM (17 to 25-) for Q 175% Gain....bal. stk.on.mgn. KNT (14+ to 22+) for L.T. 111% G...all stk.on.mgn. HPOW (5++ to 9++) for Q 133% G....all stk.on.mgn. APCS (10 to 16+) for VVQ 111% G....bal. calls N (14+ to 18++) for 111% G....all stk.on.mgn. GILTF (10- to 16-) for VVVQ 111% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. DCLK (10 to 14) for VQ 75% G.... bal. stk.on.mgn. CC (10 to 15-) for VQ 90% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. BCGI (6++ to 11+) for L.T. 133% G....all calls CTV (15+ to 19+) for Q 100% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. AV (11 to 15+) for VVQ 75% G....bal. calls TG (15 to 19+) for Q 100% G....all calls GTW (15 to 20-) for VVQ 125% G....1/2 pos. calls MTP (12 to 15-) for VVQ 90% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. AKS (9- to 13+) for 85% G....at least 1/2 pos. puts NOI (40- to 33-) for VVVQ 75% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. RSTA (7+ to 10+) for VVQ 75% G....1/2 bal. pos. stk.on.mgn. PMTC (8+ to 12-) for L.T. 80% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. PGO (9- to 11+) for VVVQ 60% G....1/2 pos. puts APA (66 to 56) for VVVQ 66% G....1/2 pos. puts NBR (60+ to 54+) for VVVQ % G....1/2 pos. puts EPG (70- to 64) for VVVQ 25% G....

and/but, longs, INSP (6 1/8 to 2- to 5 1/2), and, puts, RFMD, ADVP, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:

(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs):
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:

1/2 pos. OPTV @ 8.6, 1/3 pos. RMBS @ 16,
1/2 pos. ABF @ 8++, 1/2 pos. ATTC @ 29+, 1/2 pos. EPNY @ 8++, 1/3 pos. EXTD @ 9++, ITCD @ 5, 1/2 pos. MRD @ 16+, 1/2 pos. NT @ 14++, 1/2 pos. PLD @ 20-, 1/2 pos. POP @ 12+, 1/2 pos. TCC @ 11+, WGRD @ 6+,

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AVX @ 17++, BCU @ 5/8, BGO @ 0.405, CPQ @ 16++, DSS @ 11+, FNV @ 1.55, 1/2 pos. GRA @ 1 1/2, HLIT @ 4+, HNV @ 0.29, IOM @ 3+, KFY @ 15++, KGC @ 0.46, KRY @ 3/4, LENS @ 6, MPH @ 15, MSLV @ 8+, NTOP @ 7+, STG @ 0.56, PPE @ 10-, SHRP @ 8+, SRM 12+, TRLY @ 8+, UAXS @ 5, UTHR @ 11, VGZ @ 0.08, VOXX @ 7+...."buy (only) low", right ?

** Important: took, RMBS ?, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms ....or tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops:
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): BA @ 64+, 1/2 pos. DEO @ 42+, TXU @ 43++, 1/3 pos. UTX @ 79+,
BWA @ 45+, FCX @ 14+, 1/2 pos. FCX/A @ 12++, 1/2 pos. MMM @ 121+, PX @ 48++, 1/2 pos. UNM @ 30, 1/2 pos. UTX @ 79+, 1/2 pos. VAR @ 70-, 1/3 pos. WWY @ 49-,

ASD @ 60+, CHG @ 44++, CIN @ 35+, 1/2 pos. CNI. @ 38, ICCI. @ 28+, 1/2 pos. EAT @ 29+, PB @ 18-, 1/2 pos. PX @ 48+, TOY @ 26,

"Repeats": BWS @ 20+, CHD @ 25, CNT @ 47+, CV @ 16+, D. @ 70-, EXC @ 69+, KMI. @ 58++, ORI. @ 29, UVV @ 39++,

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, SERO, DVA ?, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", LVLT, RSTA, MFNX, MIPS, SCMR, PWER, SONE, EXDS, GX, CAS (fobd), as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CEFT, SMH, UNT, UCL, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein ....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):

**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).



acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn the pattern, more:
wow, what a continuing great recent period for us....still many more Long Gains for you:
HPOW 9.55 up 1.85 (S), NOPT 11.05 up 2 (sos), AWRE 9.0 up 1.37, EPNY 10.75 up 2.16, SHRP 10 up 2.2, GRA 2.16 up 0.18, CLTK 12.81 up 1.69, OPTV 9.87 up 1.47, HA 3.13 up 0.25, MSLV 10.80 up 1.97, BKHM 5.55 up 0.55, DITC 13.88 up 1.38, APCS 16.4 up 2.4 (S), ITCD 6 up 1/2, NMSS 8.4 up 0.8, CPQ 18.3 up 1.7, NT 17.1 up 1.7, RMBS 17.88 up 1.88, HIFN 17.5 up 1.2, MPH 16.26 up 1.36, AVX 19.15 up 1.49, EPNY 10.52 up 0.87,

still more (as usual): MRD 17.7, PMTC 12.07, SAWS 26 3/4 up 1 1/4 (sos), PGO 11.35, DCLK 14, LUX 14.95, DSS 12.05, AKS 13.38 (S), KNT 22.9 (S), TSM 24.8 (S), POP 13.9, CTV 19.85 (S), TRLY 9.3, PPE 11.9, PRIA 19.61 up 1, GILTF 16.02 (S), MTP 14.9, IBI. 16.44, BLC 18.85 up 1, X. 19.63, LENS 6.79, TG 19.61, ITCD 6.25, AV 15.49, BCGI. 11.15 (sos), GAB 11.54, LENS 7, CRO 8.65, SVU 13.86, ATTC 30 1/2, higher since last NL here....

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and more bounces after pullbacks:
as expected, most all Techs, (giving you ample opp. to buy more !), UAXS 5.17 up 0.67, MWBX, KRY, RCG, HA, HNV, VRA, TRLY 8.47, BOW 47, BELM 8.44, MLT 8.5, BCU, PRIA, VRTA 14.87 up 1.32, AWE, TG 18.3, PGO 10.3, EPNY 8.95, CPQ 16.8, SCMR 11-, ITCD 5.9, GRA 1.95, GTW, STTX, DCLK 12.5, TSTN, VGZ....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....


and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:


(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) MPH 14.9 (B), 16+, LNUX, CCRT, PAP, INSP 5.65 (S), KANA, CBJ, AWE 19.28, GRL, GSPN, STG....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:

(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, stick around:

Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out to learn:
NOI. -6, APA -5 (sow), APC -4 1/2, NBR -4 3/4, EPG -5, MND -3 1/2, VAR -4 1/2, LHP -1 1/2, BA -1 1/2, DTE -1 1/2, UTX -2 3/8, EAT -1 3/8, TJX -1, CHG -1, TXU -1, D. -1, WWY -1, CIN, PX, AME, UVV, BWS, lower since last NL here....and, of course, several Energies fell to their 200 DMA....

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):

: EXC -2 1/2, WSC, LNCR -2, CNT, ORI., CV, ASD, BWS, KMI, ICCI, APC +2 1/2, APA +2, MMM +3, MND +2, NBR +1, SLM....and all Energy stocks must follow-through and break below last week's lows....this ends our 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):


these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (FRT, HCN, TCC, ARJ, TCO, JPR, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals/steel" (CBJ, KRY, STTX, KGC, etc.)
depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, most Chem., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Papers, Apparel, Regional Banks/Finls.

*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, emi., comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):

We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy), T, BOL, CPQ, GX ?, WCG ?, CDO, GL, MTZ, PNK, POP, PDQ, BID, DSS, WGRD, SUPG, RMBS, PWER, CWP, NT, OPTV, ATHM, MIPS, HIFN, INFY, MONI, JDSU, HBAN, GSLI, XTND, INKT, CLTK, CMNT, EPNY, to, HWP ?, CLX, PRD, LUX, ADTK, ARBA, DZTK, ERICY, LENS, SCMR, SSSW, SONE, HLIT, GILTF, ITCD, LTBG, MFNX, ITWO, NMSS, INCY, LVLT, EAS, RSH, AV, MTP, PR, MSLV, RSTA, ACTM, AWRE, PSEM, SRM, PWAV, PRIA, FINL, HELE, KNSY, BKHM, UAXS, CTS, TRLY, GM, ABF, MRD, NTT, VG, IBI, PALM, LTD, CLRN, BRIO, ADPT, UTHR, RHAT, JDAS, BCGI, KFY, MPS, MLT, PPE, BKI, AWE, MGM, CTC, MSLV, LVLT, VRTA, AVX, IOM, EGLS, TSTN, PPE, TCC, BELM, GRA, MRD, NTOP, PDG, SVRN, CRDS, KGC, RCG, MWBX, TRAC, SNE, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, as all others have been Removed:

* add, DTE, MMM, UNM, BWS, FCX/A, TXU, FCX, DJ. Util. Avg., CNI, BRK/B, STR ?, PL, WTM ?, AME, TOY, NOC, ITT ?, ASD, CIN, DVA, ESRX, BKNG, EAT, BNI, to, CHG, HCA, ORI, UVV, WSC, PB, CHD, ABM, PHCC, ITG, BSYS, COCO, HSIC, PSC, VAR, ASBC, TJX, WWY, LNCR, IVGN, CV, PPDI, PX, CNT, INSUA, MNI, from recent past NL's....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Loans, defense, Tobacco, Disc. Chains, S.E. Banks, HMO's/health care, wholesale food/bev., Aero./Def., Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services, Commercial Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Homes-related/bldg., Shoes/Apparel, Railroads, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES