Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, ended formally, back in early April 2000, with issue # 207+, a while ago....(so/but this NL is Not really being actually published formally, publically, any more, and has not been, for quite a while now ....I just wanted a place to keep track of what I would have said and done and felt, since I was forced undeservedly to stop my NL, months ago....this is ONLY for my own edification and proof of the value of my output and concepts to others), and anyone reading this has NOT gotten it from me....
dated: 8:00 am, PST, Tuesday, May 8, 2001


"2001: a Trading Odessey"

or, "The Patterns Rarely Change"

Important Note: this serious, very valuable "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, due to the too-often at least semi-gestapo, uncaring, ridiculous, illogical, NASD/SEC rules, and the uncaring, inconsiderate, and thoughtless nature of most all brokerage firms....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, here, twice each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance, very-long-term track record, and to offer further significant, in-advance, in-writing, 'proof' of the value and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

Note how many new Tech. buys added still....if I didn't know better, I'd say, Sunday nite, that many Techs would indeed have measured-move new legs up, after current consoldiations end soon....we shall see....

But, the A.A.I.I. members are now 63 % bulls, kinda too high, V.S.T. only, and Barrons 5/7, pointed out historical weakness between May and Oct. yearly going way back, and their money-mgr. [poll showed too much bullishness as well among those guys....But Ned Davis, a semi-bearish guy usually, said the 3 rd Fed rate cut plus his "TRIN" reading recently, were the most bullish he had ever seen....and that there remains a ton of cash for investing out there, and he's real bullish again soon....Money market assets now represent 16 % of the TMV of NYSE stocks, the highest level since late 1990 - and you know what happened after that....so he agrees with me, that this rally must overshoot, get people somewhat excited again, then blow them away only later on....

Of course, by then WE will likely have made a lot more money on the longside, using the patterns which worked so wel from late March/early April....

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) among indexes, the Amex. Comp. approached its 2200 DMA, the 10-day A/D Osc. NASDAQ a bit overbought, the NYSE. Comp. at its 200 DMA, and the DJ., Util. Avg. fell to its 200 DMA as only I predicted, again, correctly.... 2) and/but, Tobaccos and now some Banks may have broken out/up, we will not fight the tape.... 3) as only I surmised, tha T-bond charts show a potential double-top in yields, which is rather bullish for bonds forward for a while... just as 'the 95%' fear them again, as near-perfect contrary indicators, as usual.... 4) recent Barrons found analysts loving Energy and Financial stocks the most here by far, and hating the Techs and small-caps still - should be good for us, further, ay ? ....5) but, contrary to the chart, get this, 99 % of polled mgrs. expect I.R.'s to fall 'guaranteed', from here....I am not sure I have ever seen such a reading....can't be good for Bonds....weird, given the above....and, everyone I hear/read about is expecting another I.R. Fed cut soon....whichis,m again, why we outperform, exschewing most contradictory, ephemeral, and often incorrect or misleading, real or perceived external/fundamental/financial stuff....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) L.A.T. Tom (dont get me started) Petruno, did show how 'buy and hold' for tons of 'names' the last few years has not worked...as I have taught you....thanks, guy....but he also showed the "nowhere DJIA from 1965 to 1980", which is grossly misleading and incomplete, as usual for him.... 2) but at least a reuters column titled, "recent stocks rally at critical point", which is exactly true..... 3) and, front-page WSJ 5/1, headline, "time to give stocks the green light ?" (late), and, "stocks gains for April give renewed hope of turnaround", (late), another not-encouraging V.S.T.-only sign.... 40 and similarly-contrarily, USA. Today 4/30, headline, "some interne5t stocks go from bust to boom", was another ridiculously misleading and useless column, pointing out, obviously but not predicted in any way by them, how super-low-priced Internet stocks has had big % gains recently....of cours,e idiots as the Media are, off tax-selling lows which was mentioned Nowhere in their article (but I gave to you herein late Dec., yes ?)

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) L.A.T. Tom Mulligan article, 4/29, and, USA. Today 4/30, others, masking if 'stagflation' or 'cost increases' in our economy are real or future, both still left out all sorts of items consumers buy daily , ALL of which have been rising, as only I have been pointing out herein for a while now, in their long tomes, as usual, coming to no real helpful conclusions.... ....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) as i have reported herein in the past, recent Barrons chronicled the 4-year T.R. of their interviewed 'experts' 'best picks and pans', and found, their 'pans' rose way more than their picks....as you have been taught by me to expect....and they continue to get pverpaid for that ? ....2) thanks for vindicating me yet again: L.A.T., 5/7, headline, "Wade Cook seminar firm lost -89 % trading its own money"....W.C. himself took $ 28 mm the last 4 yrs. alone, in salary, at the same time....'nuff said....except, wish I could have had a proper shot, ay ? ....3) and another useless analyst on CNBC, Mon., said, "it's much more confortable buying here than last month with all those worries", normally not a good sign S.T., oy.... 4) been reading people-not-as-good-as-we-are saying 'the Russell 2000 index' had supposedly 'broken above a downtrend line' recently, which, while may be true, I should point out to you, that it remains in a defineable downtrend of lower lows....but- on pullbacks, I certainly would be a buyer of all sorts of depressed secondary stocks ....just goes to show you again how misledaing and often incorrect the Media and analysts are....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ?

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....

"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:


1/2 pos. calls VRTA (10+ to 15-) for VQ 166% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. XTND (10- to 13-) for VVVQ 60% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. IN (5 1/4 to 8) for 100% G....at least 1/2 pos. calls PPE (9 1/2 to 12-) for Q 100% G....1/2 pos. puts SLM (75 to 66+) for Q 55% G....all puts MND (58 to 50) for VQ 55% G....all puts DJ. Util. Avg. (400+ to 380+) for VQ large % G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. CRO (7+ to 9+) for VVQ 55% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. CCRT (8 to 12+) for L.T. 111% G.....

and/but, longs, LNUX (7+, 11-, 2-, 6), TCC, and, puts, TOY, UNM, CV, ASD, UVV, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:

(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs):
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:

1/2 pos. BID @ 18, 1/2 pos. CDX @ 16, 1/2 pos. CMRC @ 8+, 1/2 pos. CLTK @ 11+, 1/2 pos. CWP @ 21+, 1/3 pos. HPC @ 11+, 1/2 pos. HWP @ 27, IBIS @ 15++, IGL @ 11+, 1/2 pos. IMDC @ 19++, 1/2 pos. ORCL @ 16+, 1/2 pos. PNK @ 9+, POM @ 21+, TEK @ 24,

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): ATTC @ 29+, AVX @ 17++, BCU @ 5/8, BGO @ 0.405, CPQ @ 16++, DSS @ 11+, FNV @ 1.55, 1/2 pos. GRA @ 1 1/2, HLIT @ 4+, HNV @ 0.29, IOM @ 3+, KFY @ 15++, KGC @ 0.46, KRY @ 3/4, LENS @ 6, MPH @ 15, MSLV @ 8+, NT @ 14++, NTOP @ 7+, STG @ 0.56, OPTV @ 8+, PLD @ 20-, POP @ 12+, SRM 12+, TRLY @ 8+, UAXS @ 5, UTHR @ 11, VGZ @ 0.08, VOXX @ 7+...."buy (only) low", right ?

** Important: took, SSSW, RMBS, T, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms ....or tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops:
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): JHF @ , MSCC @ 48-, 1/2 pos. SSP @ 64+, 1/2 pos. VZ ?

BWA @ 45+, FCX @ 14+, 1/2 pos. FCX/A @ 12++, 1/2 pos. MMM @ 121+, PX @ 48++, 1/2 pos. UTX @ 79+, 1/3 pos. WWY @ 49- ?, CHG @ 44++, CIN @ 35+, 1/2 pos. CNI. @ 38, ICCI. @ 28, 1/2 pos. EAT @ 29+, PB @ 18-, 1/2 pos. PX @ 48+, TXU @ 43++,

"Repeats": BWS @ 20+, CHD @ 25, CNT @ 47+, EXC @ 69+, KMI. @ 58++, ORI. @ 29,

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, BRKB, BA, DEO, SERO, DVA ?, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", CSC, MTZ, VOD, VIGN, TIBX, RHAT, LGTO, CRDS, GX, ITWO, ACTM, INCY, JDAS, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, IGT, ELY, EAT, BWA, CVS, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein ....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):

**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).



acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn the pattern, more:
wow, what a continuing great recent period for us....still many more Long Gains for you:
GTS 0.92 up 0.36, CCRT 12 1/2 up 2 3/4 (sos), XTND 13 up 3 1/3, GRA 2.62 up 0.50, HELE 7.41 up 1, AWRE 9.44 up 1.33, NR 10 1/2 up 1 3/8, TSTN 7.47 up 0.80, VOXX 9.73 up 1.23, CMRC 10.29 up 1.69, DITC 15.34 up 1.77, CWP 23.5 up 2.6, NT 17.1 up 1.5, MPS 5.63 up 0.37, EPNY 11.2 up 0.8, CLTK 12 1/4 up 1, WCG 6.18 up 0.28, TEK 25.82 up 1.84, CRO 9.2 up 0.9, IBIS 17+ up 2, APCC 17.1 up 1.6 (sos), MSLV 12 1/4 up 1 1/2, WGRD 8.5 up 0.7, HPC 12.48 up 1.18, CSCO 20+ up 1, IMDC 21.16 up 1.45,

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and more bounces after pullbacks:
as expected, most all Techs pulling back a bit (giving you ample opp. to buy more near lows !), MWBX, KRY, RCG, HNV, VRA, BOW, MLT, BCU, PRIA, TG 18.85, KFY 18.84, VRTA 13.4, PGO, EPNY, CPQ 16.88, ITCD, GTW, STTX, DCLK, TSTN, VGZ....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....


and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:


(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) LNUX 6- up 3 (S), KANA, CBJ, AWE, STG....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:

(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, stick around:

Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out to learn:
ICCI. -1 1/4, MSCC -1, UTX -1 1/4, NBR -1, FCX, VAR -1 1/4, lower since last NL here....while, PLUG, QSFT, TWTR, MND, fell towards their 200 DMA....

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):

: EXC, WSC, LNCR, CNT, ORI, BWS, KMI, ICCI, APC, APA, MMM -5, NBR, TJX, SLM....and all Energy stocks must follow-through and break below last week's lows....this ends our 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):


and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals/steel" (CBJ, KRY, STTX, KGC, etc.)
depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, most Chem., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Papers, Apparel, etc.
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, emi., comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):

We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy), ADCT, CNET, AVNX, CELG, DRTE, CCUR, IBIS, DTHK ?, CNXT, CMRC, FLSH, IMDC, ORCL, MEDI. ?, METHA, MDCC, NTRO ?, NEWP ?, SEPR ?, WEBM, DYAX, WMUX, APTI, PCLE ?, DIGX, TEK, VOD, IGL, JRC, POM, ALN, SBC, CDX, TDY, to, CPQ, CDO, GL, MTZ, PNK, POP, PDQ, BID, DSS, WGRD, SUPG, PWER, CWP, NT, OPTV, ATHM, HIFN, INFY, MONI, GSLI, XTND, INKT, CLTK, CMNT, HWP, LUX, ADTK, ARBA, DZTK, LENS, SCMR, HLIT, GILTF, ITCD, LTBG, MFNX, NMSS, LVLT, RSH, PR, MSLV, ACTM, AWRE, SRM, HELE, KNSY, BKHM, UAXS, TRLY, GM, MRD, IBI, LTD, CLRN, GLW, BRIO, ADPT, UTHR, KFY, MPS, MLT, CTC, MSLV, LVLT, VRTA, AVX, IOM, EGLS, TSTN, UFI, BELM, GRA, MRD, NTOP, KGC, RCG, MWBX, TRAC, as EVB's or bases ....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, as all others have been Removed:

* add, ESRX, CEFT, LSTR, MSCC, SNPS ?, JHF, MEE, VZ, BCS, SSP, THC ?, TSN, IGT ?, FRX, CF ?, to, DTE, MMM, BWS, FCX/A, TXU ?, FCX, CNI, STR ?, PL, WTM ?, AME, NOC, ITT ?, CIN, DVA, ESRX, BKNG, BNI, to, CHG, HCA, ORI, WSC, PB, CHD, ABM, PHCC, ITG, BSYS, COCO, HSIC, PSC, VAR, BJ, ASBC, TJX, WWY ?, LNCR, IVGN, PX, CNT, INSUA, MNI, from recent past NL's....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Loans, Disc. Chains, S.E. Banks, HMO's/health care, wholesale food/bev., Aero./Def., Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services, Commercial Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Homes-related/bldg., Media, Shoes/Apparel, Railroads, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES