1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
On one hand, I see many extendeds already down near support levels, while previously depressed stocks are already up to resistance levels....unusual.... Obviously, my "triple bottom" attempt on the "T-bond" was wrong, but no biggie ....While I was the among the very few to have said, herein, last Summer, that we'd likely never see 4 % on the long bond, the whole 4-6 % area may set up as a base range for a while....So, "interest-sensitive-industry-group-wise", you got a) Utilities Puts gains, then calls gains, b) Insur./Bank put gains, then QSL's, and, now, c) Insur., Util., REIT, calls gains, and, d) big put gain, then two nice calls gains, and one QSL, in the T-bond itself....Darn good results, since last Summer herein for you....Technically, it is doubtful that the yield can get over 6 % on this move....Conclusion: stay with the individual stock chart patterns, and forget about trying to predict huge indexes or economic stuff or "scenarios".
Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR educational/trading benefit....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). Note, the "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in sections (2). Longer lists, and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7)....and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). If you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you can choose to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) my Gold comment last time here was right on, as all Gold stocks are pulling back, the higher-priceds from semi-parabolic S.T. rises....am completely out of those ....after more pullbacks, will look to get in again, as mentioned.... 2) many of both, the main Drug stocks, and "computer/network/enterprise/software" stocks, have already fallen towards their 200 DMA, initial stage 5 support levels, see them ? therefore, only puttable after/on more strength....and, reiterating, many Internet charts look like a "tent" viewed from the side, or a "triangle" with a base at recent lows....too late to begin to "put" most of them, and still needing to break below recent lows to signal "the end".... 3) cool....we not only caught the lows on many Cyclicals, but I also seem to be the first/only, to now see potential S.T. late stage 2 tops, in the Farm/Machy./Eq. stocks....You know, all the ones "Wall St." hated at their lows, but loves now ? like, CSE, CAT, IR, ETN, etc. ...4) gosh, I hate 'index stuff', but, the DJ. Utils. 317, DJ. Trans. 3770, and DJIA, at new recovery highs, Mon. am, 10th....while, S & P, NASDAQ, not confirming....just points to the folly of NOT looking at individual stocks within.... 5) note the rise in depressed Insurance stocks I gave you herein....AS interest rates rise....as taught in my "scenarios" booklet, NO "link"....re-read it.
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper comments from the
Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) Barron's, 5/3, big "200 money mgrs. poll", titled, "Party On" (what does THAT tell you in itself ?), had two interesting points of "PSYCLE sentiment": first, recent poll had only just under 25 % now bearish....their last poll, autumn '98, had only just 27 % bullish....get it ? , second, 72 % also say we are in an speculative bubble (oy, talk about hedging opinions !), and none forsee a correction of more than 10-20 % "at some point over the next year"....Some quotes, "what's driving the market is excitement, fun....you can try to quantify it with va,uations based on fundamentals, but the fact is, everyon'es watching CNBC....you buy a stock and it goes up....you get immediate gratification." last, the 6 % bears in their recent poll, still, expect DOW 8,000 to hold....not that much, really....None expect a further drop below that, ever.....what does all this tell you ? ....2) L.A. Times, 5/9, "South Koreans wave the flag and Buy Stocks": gee, with that stock index ALREADY up +35 % in 1999 alone (and more, from my predicted 1998 lows), this is the normal, expected headline at this stage, yes ? ....3) L.A. Times, 5/9, "Brokerage Ads Selling Lottery-like Fantasies", the SEC investigating brokers ads these days, "seeming more like the lottery....creates unrealistic expectations....what often poses as news on the Internet is not news at all....incomplete, self-serving, one-sided, rife with rumor, manipulation and schemes...." The SEC may review ads before aired.... 4) O.C. Register, 5/7, "Crude tumbles on Shell pessimism": incorrectly also said, "crude fell sharply, below $ 18." Gee, crude is still way UP, from about $ 10., not too long ago, yes ? and, since when is "just" a 4 % drop off an extended rise, down "sharply" ? it is still UP "sharply", from $ 10., right ?
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.:
1) Barron's 4/26, chart of "M-3" U.S. money suppl, rate-of-change, in last few years, titled, "is this the way the world ends ?", showed M-3 falling, big-time, since last fall....his inference, was that much less growth in money supply, is bearish at some point....I concur.... 2) I recently reiterated herein, that Goldman, Sachs's going public IPO may signal impending top of sorts for extended stocks....Interstingly, Alan Abelson mentioned that they also had a famous launch of a "trust" fund (a real big thing in those days) in 1929 before that crash.... their IPO was at $ 104....in 1932, it was under $ 2. Some people, he said, like to see the 'super-rich/priviledged' get whacked....No comment on that from me.... 3) O.C. Register, 5/8, "Karcher sells half of CKR stake": the founder of Carl's, Jr. chain sold about half his stock, for about $ 13. a share, in April, 1999.... Closed last week around $ 17., down from $ 40. last year, when, if you remember, I specifically gave CKR out as a Puttable in my NL, in a stage 4 top formation, accompanied by smugness and super-bullishness....gosh, even a fair technician would have gotten him out a lot higher, yes ? His advisers owe him a lot of money....Evidently, article says, under $ 16. forced a margin call....which if weasn't sad, would be hilarious.....More proof, that "wealth", however gained or deserved, does not automatically equate with knowledge (and vice-versa). ...4) a potential double-top sign ? O.C. Register, 5/2, featured local "BRCM" stock, with a chart (d.t. ?) glowing over its fundamental prospects, etc., "its market will bloom"....As with many similar stocks' charts the last 2 years, isn't it already discounting more than might be possible, already ? Where were the "glowing future" articles on this stock/company, two years ago ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) an interesting comment, Barron's, 5/3, by P. Leidel of Yorktown Partners: "Sotheby's probably can make more money selling one rug than EBAY can make auctioning 1,000 beanie babies", the inference, again, being the massive overpricedness of EBAY stock.... 2) Barron's 5/3, showing how Energy stocks rose, while Drug stocks fell, recently (as, you know, I was among the very few to predict herein for you), said, "the big Oil stocks now trade at comparable PE's to most major Drug stocks....time to switch back into Drug stocks ?" I say nope....The Energies have just joined the Drugs as both, still extended, dig ? The I.G.'s are UN-linkable.... 3) CNBC, Bob Pisani, Mon. 10th, 8:55 am, reported that -be still my heart- some people actually think that the Drug stocks, at 30-40 PE, are "expensive", compared to their lower "growth rates forward"....No kidding, sherlock, as I have been saying, for months now....He asked, "when are the Drug stocks going to be attractive again ? they are pretty darn expensive"....which is also interesting, since he, and "the 95 %" on Wall St., were gaga bullish on them near their highs, yes ? At least I gave them as Puttables herein for you near their highs recently....Once again, good technicals, beat any fundamentals, the vast majority of the time.... 4) last week, H. Blodget of MER initiated coverage of "PCLN", "accumulate", as "a big idea"....wow....with "potential eps of $ 2. in 2003." Hmmmm....a max. of only $ 2. eps, only 3 years from now ? and that somehow justifies a $ 160. share price, as "attractive" ? hmmmm, 180 mm. shs. x 160. = almost $ 30. bill. market value, or more than DAL, UAL, and AMR, combined -- the very companies they hope to sell tickets on....Ridiculous. Cannot fulfill. "
4) Barron's 4/26, Credit Suisse, F, B, just put out a 1,000-page fundamental report on Bank companies/stocks....The author foresaw their rise, in his last report, in 1994....and, now, he says, "don't be surprised if there's a big selloff in Bank stocks....we have made 28 downgrades since May 1998"....I agree, as you know I added Puts on several Banks herein recently....his shaky ones, are: CMB, C., ONE, JPM....Hey, at least one analyst sees fundamentals which agree with my technicals....crossing my fingers....of course, what it took him countless hours of research, and 1,000 pages to report, "PSYCLE sm" followers can figure out in just a few minutes....but hiring me, would only save their firm millions, and cause many analysts their jobs....ain't gonna happen....Last, am noticing S & P quietly lowering eps estimates on many "Bank" stocks recently.... 5) obviously, George Soros's very- L.T. track record is truly excellent....but, Barron's 5/3, said atht three of his Hedge Funds (mostly commodities, mind you) are down -40 % from last July, including being down -15 % the first Q of 1999....total assets under mgmt. have fallen from $ 20. B last year, to $ 13. B. recently....still, at 1 %/yr. fees to them, they make a nice living....Just goes to show, as with many, after huge success, few maintain it....I should only be so fortunate to get a chance in the first place....But is illogical to even attempt to criticize these kinds of guys ever, and Soros is very philathropic, which I think is great....FYI, I have tried to contact his people for years, unsuccessfully, suggesting he shift some monies to depressed stocks, from commodities....I just wanted you to know that his stuff is down big-time, over the last year, by Barron's....
6) Barron's 5/3, in another in a long line of his, so far, incorrect columns panning Internet stocks all the way up, Alan Abelson quoted Rhonda Brammer, pointing to razor-thin margins, as saying, "the only thing AMZN has proved so far, is that it can lose $ selling books, and lose still more $ selling music." Note: after her comment, AMZN fell to $ 123, then rose to over $ 200.... 7) Mon. 10th, two big B-firms just came out with buys on "COL" at 27+, late, as usual....I gave you COL in its base low herein, with other depressed Hosp./Nursing stocks, based on their chart pattern, yes ? Gee, don't these firms already employ overpaid techincal guys ? then why do they hardly ever buy anything near their lows ?
e) as I mentioned before: 1) L.A. Times, 5/9, "Fears of Y2K power failures dim"....Chronicled details of mass progress with Y2K, by utilities....In Calif., said that industry was "well ahead of the curve....showing 90 % of Utilities finishing ahead of 6/30/99 deadlines....and the final price tag will be less than expected....California's location 20 hours from the intl. date line will give the state plenty of warning of possible problems with any equipment." I told everyone from the start, than NOTHING, including "Y2K" fears, will ever be as bad as the worst expectations....Scientists and Engineers, etc. are pretty darn smart about dealing with and solving such things....'nuff said.... 2) and, L.A. Times, 5/9, "Why Demonize a Healthy Teen Culture ?" , factually echoed my "media and govt. overraction" sentiments about the terrible, but rare, Littleton tragedy, that, Teen gun deaths, murders and arrests, violent fatalities, drug abuse, are all Down 25-50 %, vs. 1970's rates, in California....While, such rates have RISEN quite a bit, for the 30-and-over ages ! Of course, they never print that, do they ? The article said, "a baffling paradox: why do the more prevalent killings by Adults draw no similar fears of wide-spread 'grown-ups' pathology ? Tragic abberations are NOT indicative of a larger trend." Dig ? Similarly, to an ind. group's move, NOT being necessarily indicative of larger market trends....Again, I am NOT judging the event, just judging the reaction, from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v., in historical fact, for your proper perspective and knowledge. As just one of many similar examples, how many freeway shootings have you heard about, the last few years ? none....For the umpteenth time, (also re-read my "Media" booklet), all rare occurances are always followed, S.T. only, by overcoverage/overreaction by govt./media, with calls to regulate the non-cause (sic), then they fade quickly ....this is the normal, usual, historical, "PSYCLE sm" pattern, which tends to be applicable with most all human events....I always said, exaggerating wildly, that, some day, some kid will accidently kill him/her/self with a pen, and the media and govt. will immediately try to make all pens illegal....see it ? Anything to blame the "implement", but not the "person", or the real "cause"....don't get me started ....sorry, but that may upset some of you....not my intent....The problems in one's trading, are NOT "the market", nor "daytraders", nor even "the media".... the problems are most often, one's own inner (lack of) knowledge of patterns, discipline, and/or (over)reactions or nonactions, at proper times, etc. Of course, that statement will also upset some of you also, which is, again, not my intent....but my statements are factual.
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
bal. stk.on.mgn. ALN (5- to 11) for 200% Gain....1/2 pos. puts DCLK (149 to 118) for VVQ 111% G....puts VIGN (99 to 73) for VQ 111% G....1/2 pos. puts VRTY (38+ to 31) for VQ 100% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. UQM (4 3/8 to 6 3/8) for Q 66% Gain....1/2 pos. calls ARW (15- to 18-) for 66% G....1/2 pos. calls SCZ (12 to 15) for 90% G....stk.on.mgn. BOY (12+ to 15+) for Q 40% G.....1/2 pos. puts BUD (78+ to 70-) for Q 85% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. HRBC (6++ to 13+) for Q 150% G....bal. puts COST (92- to 78+) for Q 111% G....1/2 pos. puts CMB (86 to 78+) for VQ 66% G....1/2 pos. puts PSUN (38+ to 34-) for VQ 66% G....
and/but, longs, PAGE, ESH, CNU, MCL, and, puts, UIHIA, PGTV, SANM, LNC, COX, WKR, HRL, for very quick, very small losses, of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy any Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their
patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just
buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with
less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent,
for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions"
have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) BLM @ 2.06, CPB @ 40, EGR @ 21 1/8, PAH @ 4++, and,
"Repeats": (note, list shrinking even more) ADGO @ 3 11/16, AIMM @ 1 15/16, ARM @ 13+, AZC @ 9/16, BGO @ 5/8, CAU @ 0.20, CBJ @ 3 11/16, CCH @ 0.28, CDV @ 3-, CNJ @ 15+, DAY, EAR @ 9/16, ECO @ 1 5/8, GLDR @ 1.06, GRERF @ 0.28, GSR @ 3/4, HDG @ 1.06, HOC @ 14, IFMX @ 6+, IOM @ 4 13/16, KEG @ 3 1/8, KMAG @ 3+, KRY @ 5/8, LFG @ 29-, LWN @ 1., NGX @ 0.53, RDRT @ 5 13/16, SAMC @ 5 1/2, TBP @ 5-, UMR @ 11/16, VGZ @ 0.175, WIX @ 3 7/8....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds...."buy (only) low", right ? but not really that great a list, as I intimated recently....
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein,
countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT
"just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some
stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes
over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at
times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up
those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for
you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already
moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many
subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and
there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching"
NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly:
the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, WEL, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms ....we want only the EVB's, or bases, which set up properly....for one thing, we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first, and/or then more fully formed "bases", yes ?
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL. LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) ADI. @ 37+, GLW @ 59+, GNE @ 88-, INSUA @ 19+, IVX @ 14-, JPM @ 136, LE @ 39+, LSI. @ 38-, MDS @ , PCLN @ 149-, PKS @ 38, SNTC @ 95+, TROW @ 38++, UNPH @ 127-, VYTL @ 48, WON @ 36-, XCIT @ 164, (and, P.S., last time, "SDW" should Not have been bt. puts)
("Repeats"): AGPH @ 59+, AJG @ 48+, ANET @ 21+, BBT @ 40, CM @ , CSGS @ 40++, FLT @ 44+, FM @ 27, FRO @ 56, FS @ 42+, HTN @ 45+, LLL @ 49+, LZRC @ , MBK @ 15+, MKL @ , ORBK @ 50-, PCLE @ 57-, PE @ 48+, PL @ 40-, SBA @ 26+, WCII. @ 49+, short U.S. Dollar @ 101....
and/but, took, , Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....any new highs = off the puts list....
IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web
site, a stock might break its extended S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed
EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy, or
put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still Added, as above....So I
am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying
any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and
therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted....this takes
just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues
which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then
incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the process is Your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", SAVLY, ONPT, BLUD, PRCM, UPX, ASF, ACX, BEZ, MXG, TIE, UWW, CNC, BD, IO., KE, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, QCOM, SSP, FRX, GPS, CCU, BKB, PEGS, TECH, DH, DL, HD, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock here was specifically given herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently ....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
CDV 3 5/8 up 3/4, BLM 2 3/8 up 3/8, WS 2 7/8 up 3/8, KMAG 4 1/8 up 7/16, RDRT 6 7/8 up 1 1/4, SAMC 6 1/8 up 3/4, DGN 13 1/4 up 2 1/4, PFC 7 1/4 up 3/4, ICO 13 up 1 3/8, PRD 23 3/8 up 2 5/8, HRBC 14 up 1 1/4 (S), SPC 33 up 2 7/8, WDC 8 3/8 up 7/8, ARM 14 1/4 up 1, OCN 9 1/8 up 3/4, MRVC 14 1/2 up 1 1/8, MLP 15 7/8 up 1 (sos), ORI. 20 5/8 up 1 3/8, UFC 22 up 1, SAFC 44 1/8 up 2 1/8, LFG 29 5/8 up 1, XTR 43 1/2 up 1 1/4, NCE 37 5/8 up 1, PNW 39 3/8 up 1 1/8, RML 24 3/4, SYC 18, PPW 18 1/2, DATM 7 5/8, GHM 8 3/4, HM 10 5/8, AM 27 5/8, AGU 10 1/8, MWY 10 7/8, COE 6 1/4, PAA 19, SCG 26 1/8, RML 24 5/8, FLM 9 3/4, RJF 22 3/8, LKI. 9 3/8, PFC 7 1/2, SOC 7, IV 19 1/4 (sos), up/further, just since last time here....
and, TOX 7 1/2 wow (S), FTR , NEM 26 (S), THDO 7 5/8, ULB 5 (S), COL 29, HET 25, PAIR 15, MLHR 23, WND 13-, TMO, X. 34, W. 32, BA 46, COT 22, FMC 75, UPR 15+ (S), AG 12, CS 12+, TMO, AMD, higher still....and, ARW, LOD, RRC, TRI., WLT, SOC, LMT, BMET, hit their 200 DMA, and, FLM, PZE, approaching their 200 DMA....all given you herein near their lows....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some subscribers,
who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds
for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above,
you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and
what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....always view the
one-year daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, SYBS 8 1/2 up 1, BDE 4 3/8 up 3/8, BBA 6 1/4 up 5/8, Golds, Utils., DRFNY 3 3/4, NTN, MANH, HM 8 3/4, CBJ, PPW, BMG, SSN, AFCI., FCN, MPN, SCG, ANDW, PSSI., CPU 6, SEV, CELL, SWW, NSP, FOTO, BXH, PLL, SUB, ADGO, SCZ, ATV, AAC, UQM, ARW, TBP, KNE, AOI., FRTE, NPSI., KEG, SGU, ARM, RTC, SFSK, IFMX, NSD, HIV, ESC, WWW, HDG, APFC, OMM, TXB, CCH, EEX, WH....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) BXH, FHCC, ATV, AAC, RJF, ADGO, AIMM, CDV, WIX, MPN, IFMX, SEV, TXB, EGR, PLL, MANH, IGT, TPS, AFCI., APFC, EAR, KEG, LWN, EEX, RYO, BKI., DAY, MCL, CAU, MSN, WH, Golds.
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
PCLN -19, +5, BVSN -9 1/2, +2, BTY -7, UNPH -6, XCIT -9, +3, ADRX -4, VRIO -4, CSCO -3 1/2, BSYS -3 1/2, GLW -3 1/2, ERTS -3 3/4, VYTL -3, PCLE -2 1/2, PSUN -2, INSUA -2, VRTY -1 1/2 (S), CSGS -1 1/2, SGY -1 1/2, LSI. -1 1/2, UNFY -1, SCF -1, GNE -1, NZT -1, HTN -1, AJG -1, MCD -1 1/4, ORLY, FLT, HRZ, IPG, and, the US. Dollar Index 9940, down 170, down/further, just since last time here....and, YHOO, BSYS, CACS, SPLN, CLX 106, CTL, RX 26, lower still....and, BSYS 48, ORLY, BXM, FMY, ERTS, SPLN, "drugs", approaching their 200 DMA....and PSUN, hit its 50 DMA....and, BGEN, SPLS, VRTY, fell to their 'necklines'....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On next Weakness,
towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously long Puts right
near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned,
for Your Benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little
time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....
let them do their thing.
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow):
again, we need to see many stocks break below recent lows/necklines, and, so
far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)"
sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after
"bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not
break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each
stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see"
previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn
patterns from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot" of stocks to review here, especially in the next two
sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times, right ?
View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT "chase
up".... only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their lows,
with stops for protection.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
Prec.Metals (GSR, NGX, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DRFNY, DAY, AZC, BGO, all real
cheapies, riskier, some may need more work/time, added more below as well)
Energy and Oil Svc. (UMR, MHR, SEV, KEG, etc., near their recent lows Only,
and, more stocks, as below, on bigger pullbacks, ahead)
Biotech/Health/Medical (FHCC, TXB, EAR, AOI., SHG)
"Staffing/Employment" (JOB, OLS, ASIS, MPS, too late for some already)
Disk/Storage (QNTM, RDRT, KMAG, WDC, IOM, DGN) may still need more work
Foods (UFC, EGR, CPB)
R.E.I.T./finance/Healthcare/Utilities, potential high-yield-plus (GLB, HRP, NI., PRT, SCG, NSP, CIN, GPU, AHE, NCE, PNW, NHI., PPW, NHP, ARM, BOY, DTE, CEI., TRI., HCR, TCO)....note, this I.G. section has grown, which says/said something about "interest-sensitive I.G.'s, yes ?
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, CCC, CPB, QNTM, RYC, TMD, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) AAM, ABH, ADGO, AIMM, AN, ATV,
AVGLY, BAL, BEZ, BGP, BKI., BLM, BMG, BYX, CBJ, CDV, CELL, CEXP, CNC, CNJ, CPU, CWC, DHC, DSL, DRFNY, EAR, FHCC, FLM, FNL, GDC, GLDR, GRERF, HDG, HEC, HNV, HOC, IO., KEG, LWN, MIDI., MSN, MXG, NTN, OCN, PENN, PFC, PRD, RDRT, RTC, SAFC, SAMC, SCY, SGU, SHOW, SOC, SSN, SWW, TBP, TIE, TTRIF, TWA, UDG, UFC, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....
New, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: added, IHS, ONX, ONPT, DATM, GISH, PBY, IRSN, NOW, QSII., PSFT, PRCM, SVRN, CHRZ, TGX, ZAP, SVM, EGR, "Foods", to, CBRL, KMAG, LDW, WDC, TCO, NOV, KE, ISSI., as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....again, NOT Yet, but just to briefly give you an idea of what may be coming....oh, and some "Food-oriented' stocks should begin to bottom ahead, just watching for now....
and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these
above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't
"force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the
less-known ones....
Remember, this is primarily just a "watching to possibly buy" list !!! They
only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, when/if they decline
towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over
time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns
? This is a positive, not a negative....note, we re-added some previously given
names, above here....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?):
Note: these lists are growing again !
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Medical: AGPH, GNE, etc.
Internet-oriented: CNET, GNET, CMGI., EGRP, etc.
Retail: CM, PSUN, BBY, etc.
Insurance/Banks: AXP, CMB, IPG, JPM, BBT, etc.
Semis: ADI., MOT, LSI., etc.
(all other "internets/techs/computer/telecom, etc." are in two lists just below,
**** new ones: added, ADI., AEOS, AMCC, COF, CPWM, DRQ, FULL, IIN, IPI., IR, IVX, KOF, LE, LSI., MDS, MOT, NDN, NTBK, OK, ONE, QRSI., SNTC, STT, TGNT, TROW, TXN, UHS, VYTL, WON, YNR, to,
("repeats") ADRX, ADVP, AGN, AJG, ANF, ARMHY, AWRE, AXP, BAC, BBY, BID, BKB, CMB, CNET, CNCX, CNXT, CSCO, CUST, DISH, EBAY, ECL, EFII., EGRP, FDS, FLT, FM, FS, GBLX, GLW, GMST, HDI., HRZ, HTN, IDTC, IMCL, INKT, INSUA, IPG, LEVL, LVCI., LVLT, LZRC, MBK, MKL, MMC, MTNT, NTLI., NZT, ORBK, ORLY, PAYX, PCLE, PE, PGTV, PL, PSUN, QCOM, QLTI., QWST, RGIS, RNWK, SBA, TECH, TEVIY, TSG, UNPH, USAI., VERT, VOD, VRIO, VRSN, VYTL, WAT, WCII., XCIT, YUM....note, more Semis, Bank, Retail, Internet, Insur., Travel, Cable, Insur., stocks....and, more "names from before"....
note: LVCI., LVLT, LZRC, ONE, FM, ECL, LLL, etc., are all right on the "goal line", very difficult here....there are a plethora of other extendeds right at potential breakout levels, Mon. 10 am, pst....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: telephone, cruise/travel, Laser Vision, Online Brokerage and Banking, Retail, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Insurance/Finance/Banking (though some Banks iffy, and some Insur. longs), Entertainment, Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and all Tele.-Commun., some Airlines, near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: given all the stuff above, none today....
**** The following several paragraphs are in every NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding, and
giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have not
had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from 12/7/98 NL, through
the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any
time....hope they helped....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3)
and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops, and July '98 tops, and drops, have
proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my
main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match
my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously,
have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things,
properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you
actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE
you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows,
for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming
you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from
the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....