Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, ended formally, back in early April 2000, with issue # 207+, a while ago....(so/but this NL is Not really being actually published formally, publically, any more, and has not been, for quite a while now ....I just wanted a place to keep track of what I would have said and done and felt, since I was forced undeservedly to stop my NL, months ago....this is ONLY for my own edification and proof of the value of my output and concepts to others), and anyone reading this has NOT gotten it from me....
dated: 8:00 am, PST, Friday, May 11, 2001


"2001: a Trading Odessey"

or, "The Patterns Rarely Change"

Important Note: this serious, very valuable "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, due to the too-often at least semi-gestapo, uncaring, ridiculous, illogical, NASD/SEC rules, and the uncaring, inconsiderate, and thoughtless nature of most all brokerage firms....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, here, twice each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance, very-long-term track record, and to offer further significant, in-advance, in-writing, 'proof' of the value and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

Been very cool how many Longside Winners I have continued to give out herein....all sorts of types, big names, cheapies, Techs, non-techs, etc. - as the rally broadened out, as, as usual, I was among the few to have predicted first - without getting emotional or caught-up....and, strength seeing in some Puttables confirms our originally-given 'scenario' (yes, I use that word, oy), of an initial super-low around 1700-1800 NASDAQ, initial rally with no one buying it, or most missing it, then pullbacks without tons of new lows, preventing the unenlightened from buying as THEY wish, some Puttables working regardless, then another possibly measured-move higher to maybe the 2500 to 3000 NASDAQ area, get 'the 95 %' excited later/higher, as usual, then, down the road, another, bigger set, of pullbacks....but one step at a time....we are not there yet....

as ecpected, working off semi-overbought oscillators in some I.G.'s only... while other groups remain buyable here, continuing our split market exploitable both directions still....T-bonds held where predicted/expected, but only neutral ....not too exciting yet, but gosh, look at all the longisde stocks Gainers herein the last several weeks....dozens of them, with very few losses....I will try to continue this forward....

and, as to recent Puttables, again, the idea is to be IN, more Longside depresseds, regardless of any real or perceived external or market nuances, or puttables, so that, when/if some Puts have small upside breakouts, instead of being upset, one will be almost happy/confident, because that would illustrate internal broader market strength, and one's many newer Longside positions held might rise, some more, dig ? So, being careful, but being IN more positions....
always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) as CNBC, Wed., was all over reporting pop in Gold stocks (late/high, as usual, have you llearned the pattern yet ?), my super-cheapies remain(ed) buyable down here, as probably catch-up laggards (re-read my Booklets), but some majors are sales into strength, while others may have broken out....in any case, majors should/could easily have, as usual, been bought much lower from herein....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) CNBC gal reporter pissed me off again Wed, because they all keep overreporting every little price change in their parent co., GE, and Wed., actually said, "GE stock mad QUITE a big move on that news, up 1/4 pt., to 48".... wow, up that much, ay ? ignorance, deception, of viewers.... unconsciounable....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) more goos future news, as Red Herring Mag., more of many Media Finl. people who failed to warn, protect, predict, or forsee all I did in Techs falling, from 1999 and 2000, 4/1 issue, bearish articles....one, writing, "eschew techs for 'comfort stocks', and, many companies with high brand awarenness, like, CA, SGI, NOVL, may actually be primed for a slump" (Pip Coburn) - when, in fact thosestocks had, as usual in my "PSYCLE sm" ALREADY fallen a ton, dig ? and, Anthony Perkins wrote, "yes, folks, the PC industry has matured, and is poised to be the automobile industry of the new millenium....today, watching Tech. stocks, each time you analuyze them, they are smaller in potential....", which is about as bullish a contrary signal as one gets - again, only AFTER huge price declines in their stocks, etc., the same way.... and, again, was published - get this - right at the bottom, April 1, 2001, dig ? are you learning the pattern ?

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) ....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) what a shock, news, Wed., California's incompetent lying governor announced that only 1/3 of the expected power purchases he had guaranteed, will come on stream by July ....oh, and even higher rate increases will screw more consumers....great system, ay ?

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....

"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:


still giving you many more Longside Winners:
bal. calls SAWS (16++ to 27-) for L.T. 250% Gain....all stk.on.mgn. RSTA (7++ to 17++) for VVQ 150% G....bal. calls CC (10+ to 14++) for 175% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. TMCS (8 to 14+) for 150% G....all calls CTV (15+ to 21++) for 166% G ....all stock KRY (0.55 to 1.55) for L.T. 175% G....bal. calls GSPN (18 to 16 to 25+ to 23) for L.T. 125% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. DITC (8+ to 15-) for Q 120% G.... bal. stk.on.mgn. AKS (8++ to 13+) for 111% G.... bal. stk.on.mgn. STLD (9+ to 15-) for L.T. 111% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. PMTC (8++ to 13-) for 100% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. TSTN (5+ to 7++) for 67% G....all stock GRA (1 1/2 to 2 1/2) for Q 55% G....all stk.on.mgn. HELE (6+ to 8+) for VVVQ 66% G....bal. puts RE (69 to 62) for Q 44% G....1/2 pos. stock HA (2- to 3+) for L.T. 60% G....1/2 of 2nd pos. stk.on.mgn. HLIT (4+ to 8-) for VQ 111% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. VOXX (7+ to 10) for 66% G....1/2 pos. calls CLX (30+ to 34-) for VQ 44% G....

and/but, longs, UAXS, HWP, and, puts, PX, TJX, TXU ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:

(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs):
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:

1/3 pos. PRSF @ 5 1/8
1/2 pos. BID @ 18, 1/2 pos. CDX @ 16, 1/2 pos. CMRC @ 8+, 1/2 pos. CLTK @ 11+, HPC @ 11+, IBIS @ 15++, IGL @ 11+, 1/2 pos. IMDC @ 19++, 1/2 pos. ORCL @ 16 eh, 1/2 pos. PNK @ 9+, POM @ 21+,

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AVX @ 17++, BGO @ 0.405, CPQ @ 16-, DSS @ 11+, HNV @ 0.29, IOM @ 3+, KFY @ 15++, KGC @ 0.46, KRY @ 3/4, LENS @ 6, MPH @ 15-, NTOP @ 7+, STG @ 0.56, PLD @ 20-, UTHR @ 11, VGZ @ 0.08...."buy (only) low", right ?

** Important: took, , Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms ....or tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops:
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. LHP @ 46 1/2, MSCC @ 48-, 1/2 pos. SSP @ 64+, 1/2 pos. VZ @ 56+, (note, WWY, removed B4 bt.)

"Repeats": BWA @ 45+, FCX @ 14+, 1/2 pos. FCX/A @ 12++, PX @ 48++, UTX @ 79+, CHG @ 44++, CIN @ 35+, ICCI. @ 28, PB @ 18-, TXU @ 44+ ?, BWS @ 20+, CHD @ 25, CNT @ 47+, EXC @ 69+, KMI. @ 58++, ORI. @ 29, PSC @ 24 ?

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, JHF, WWY, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", DYAX, PWER, CLRN, TRAC, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, , as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):

**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).



acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn the pattern, more:
wow, what a continuing great recent period for us....still many more Long Gains for you:
KRY 1.60 up 0.90 (sos) HLIT 7.8 up 2.7, KGC 0.66 up 0.13, STLD 15- up 3 (S), HELE 8.63 up 1.22 (S), PRSF 5.8 up 0.80, TSTN 7.85 up 0.54, POP 13.6 up 1.3, IGL 12.7 up 1.33, OPTV 11.89 up 1.77, HPC 12.50 up 1.27, SHRP 12.25 up 1.85, BELM 10.50 up 1.45, PMTC 13 up 1, ORCL 17.55 up 1.22, MTP 16.46 up 1,

still more still: APCC 18.2 up 1, CTV 21.75 up 1.40 (S), VOXX 10.20 up 0.68, AVX 19.1 up 1.5, SAWS 27.2, LENS 7.12, HA 3.24 (sos), BCGI. 12 up 7/8 (sos), CLTK 12.86 up 0.86, DSS 11.79 up 0.75, TEK 27.03 to 1, AV 16.01, CRO 9.4, LUX 15.14, JWN 18.73, CLX 33.95, SVU 14.5, MPS 5.64, UTHR 11.45, CDX 16.66, BID 18.7, higher since last NL here....and, MT, 5+, higher still....

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and more bounces after pullbacks:
as expected, most all Techs pulling back a bit (giving you ample opp. to buy more near lows !), BOW 48.68, 47.68, MWBX, KRY, NT 14++, RCG, HNV, VRA, FON 21.91, BOW, MLT, BCU, PRIA, TG, KFY, VRTA, PGO, EPNY, CPQ, ITCD, GTW, STTX, DCLK, ORCL 16, MSLV 9, CPQ 16-, PMTC 11.85, PRSF 5.1, GTS 0.67, VGZ....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....


and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:


(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) KANA, AWE, STG, MPH 14.75, 15.35, POM....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:

(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, stick around:

Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out to learn:
EAT -3 (sowo), SLM -3 (sowo), VZ -3, ICCI. -1 3/4, NBR -1, since last NL here....

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):

: VAR +3, EXC, WSC, LNCR, CNT, ORI, BWS, KMI, APC, APA, MMM, FCX, NBR -2, CIN, SLM +1 1/2, PSC....this ends our 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):


and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals/steel" (CBJ, KRY, STTX, KGC, etc.)
depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, most Chem., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Papers, Apparel, etc.
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, emi., comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):

We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy), ADCT, CNET, AVNX, CELG, DRTE, CCUR, IBIS, DTHK ?, CNXT, CMRC, FLSH, IMDC, ORCL, MEDI. ?, METHA, MDCC, NTRO ?, NEWP ?, SEPR ?, WEBM, DYAX, WMUX, APTI, PCLE ?, DIGX, TEK, VOD, IGL, JRC, POM, ALN, SBC, CDX, TDY, to, CPQ, CDO, GL, MTZ, PNK, POP, PDQ, BID, DSS, WGRD, SUPG, CWP, OPTV, ATHM, HIFN, INFY, MONI, GSLI, XTND, INKT, CLTK, CMNT, HWP, LUX, ADTK, ARBA, DZTK, LENS, SCMR, HLIT, GILTF, ITCD, LTBG, MFNX, NMSS, LVLT, RSH, PR, MSLV, ACTM, AWRE, SRM, KNSY, BKHM, TRLY, GM, MRD, IBI, LTD, GLW, BRIO, ADPT, UTHR, KFY, MPS, MLT, AVX, IOM, EGLS, UFI, BELM, GRA, MRD, NTOP, KGC, RCG, MWBX, TRAC, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, as all others have been Removed:

* add, ESRX, CEFT, LSTR, MSCC, SNPS ?, MEE, VZ, BCS, SSP, THC ?, TSN, IGT ?, FRX, CF, to, DTE, MMM, BWS, FCX/A, TXU ?, FCX, CNI, STR ?, PL, WTM ?, AME, NOC, ITT ?, CIN, DVA, ESRX, BKNG, BNI, to, CHG, HCA, ORI, WSC, PB, CHD, ABM, PHCC, ITG, BSYS, COCO, HSIC, PSC, VAR, BJ, ASBC, LNCR, IVGN, CNT, INSUA, MNI, from recent past NL's....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Loans, Disc. Chains, S.E. Banks, HMO's/health care, food/bev., Aero./Def., Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services, Commercial Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Homes-related/bldg., Media, Shoes/Apparel, Railroads, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES