1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Looking back recently, I can't help but be somewhat pleased at also seeing so many of our "just missed" Longside issues I specifically gave herein, up, some big-time....One could even have bought most all those longside stocks I shared, at even slightly higher than my suggested prices, and done real well....Plus, a bunch which had "fakedown breakdowns" revalidated and rose anyway....showing the power of buying in the base/EVB....This also taught you, that, often, when the I.G. moves, it carries the laggards eventually....Of course, just because "I" missed a certain stock buy given herein, does not mean that "you" had to miss it, if you diligently check charts of sec. (6) issues....Re-read my "Industry Group Rotation" booklet. I don't know anyone else in the biz, who also gave out each/all, the Farm Eq., Steels, Staffing, Utility, stocks, in addition to all the other Metals, Cyclicals, and Energies, from their bottoms....As the rally broadened, we added more depressed issues for you, over time, till we caught most all that was worth catching, from their lows....My purpose, has always been, to have YOU Learn how to do this, for the Next time some I.G.'s set up similarly, chart-wise.
But, as I said, is now too late to "begin" buying many previously-depresseds, and, given recent drops/breakouts, still a bit too early to buy Puts on certain Extendeds, unless they rally-and-fail again, which I still expect to happen.... Hence, many areas are in 'no man's land', again, S.T. Yuck. And, I am shocked at seeing the pops among our Puttables, Wed./Thu., with no logical explanation whatsoever, technically....So, as it looked like some already-down puttables would not break below their recent lows, I "took" what Q, Puts Gains existed, and we move on....The lesson, is to take what you can get, at such times, cut losses quickly, NO emotion, do not quit prematurely, and stay with it....just replace the Q,S lossses with new positions with charts still looking good....Step back, view one-year charts, longs and puttables, gain perspective....
While also seeing a potential double-top ahead in the McClellan Summation Index, with its late Nov. '98 top, have had too many Q,S,L's among Puts just recently, and removed many other potential Puttables, as you should have....Ralph Bloch, RJF, Thu. pointed out the put/call ratio very high, and bullish, lately....
Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). The "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2). Longer lists, and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7)....and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). If you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you can choose to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage over time.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) looks like we were, again, the first/only, to have given out the depressed "staff./temp./employ." stocks near their lows....note rise of OLS, UWW, MMWW, NRL, ASL, PGA, etc., but our JOB still not up much yet.... 2) also note, though slow, all our Utilities are higher, NCE, PNW, NSP, TE, etc., while, PPW, SCG, pulled back....all were L.T., ITM calls....DJ. Util. Avg. hit 320, wow....its high last year was 323+....interesting, that our longside Utils., Banks, Insur., stocks are UP, even as "the T-Bond" fell and I.R.'s popped a bit, yes ? More proof of the power of good technicals, and LESS fundamentals/linkages.... 3) and, our Foods, UFC, EGR, CPB, etc., up quietly, as I was first/only there, as well....am trying to find more "cheapie" Food stocks for you....if YOU Know of any, please let me know, a.s.a.p., also see sec. (6).... 4) our "data/storage" stocks are already up (AMD, KMAG, QNTM, RDRT, HTCH, MXTR, WDC, etc.)...."the experts" hated them near recent lows, yes ? ....5) and, I was wrong on Putting the "semis" and "laser vision"....so we'll find other I.G.'s for Puts.... 5) remember, on a 1-year cash commodity chart, Gold still looks like a triple-bottom ahead, around 270 ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper comments from the
Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) CNBC's Bill Griffith, Tue. 11th, 9 am, "grabber", said, "the pres. of one of the hottest companies around will be on, K-Swiss ....have you SEEN this stock lately ? it is coming back in a HUGE, way ....sensational numbers....a shoe stock trading like an internet stock." O.K., so let's see it's chart....and, whadaya know ? "KSWS" was $ 10. last Oct., and now, already up to $ 47., hmmmm....see, the pattern NEVER changes....they ONLY do the interview, AFTER a big rise....oh, and CNBC only mentioned it, because of "viewer request", and "the 95 %" always/only jump on, AFTER huge rises, right ? are you learning ? remember, I got death threats, when, on TV, I mentioned L.A. Gear as a Puttable around $ 45-50., in a similar circumstance, technically, back in the late 1980's....but this stock is UN-likely to fall to $ 4., as "LA" did....but we'll still add it to potential puts list.... 2) CNBC's Bob Pisani, Tue., 10:05 am, showed MCD chart, saying, "it's been a real slow sell-off .... WRONG ! This stock, which I was first/only to give as Put herein for you, is down from 47+ to 39+, down -17 % in just 3 1/2 weeks ! that ain't "slow", especially for a supposed "low-risk blue chip"....of course, the moment HE begins to show it in a negative light, WE will look to take our Puts Gain, get it ? ....3) Tue. 11th, 10:50 am, CNBC's Bill Griffith said, "wow, look at that", bullish-comment, when Joe Kernan showed a chart of Citigroup....Gee, if they just viewed the very chart they showed, they would see a potential double-top on "C.", yes ? oy....its stock is not up much from it's summer '98 high of $ 73....unless/until it breaks out above 76 or so, it remains a puttable....in short, I ask, "look at what ?" ....4) a CNBC reporter, Tue. 11th, 11:30 am, commenting that the DJ. Trans. Avg. is holding up here, actually said, "Crude Oil is down recently, which doesn't hurt there...." Huh ? We just saw the Trans. stocks Rise, WHILE Crude was ALSO rising, yes ? His statement is illogical, and has no historical validity, as usual...they are NOT automatically "linkable", as taught in my "Scenarios" booklet, re-read it.
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.:
1) you know I hate fundamentals, but sometimes, they hold clues: CNBC, Wed. 12th, mentioned some Online Internet companies, beginning to use "traditional, off-line" means, to attract people to go "online"....this, to me, smacks of an increasingly crowded industry, and, I say, a likely shakeout ahead...."a war for exposure to potential customers"....radio, TV, billboards, magazines, etc....Ergo, many of the people who "already know about, and use" the web, are already "in"....So, now, they have to reach for the unconverteds....This is the normal progression, in its "PSYCLE sm"....Growth WILL slow from here ! And few companies are making any money NOW....yikes....BTW, I still get interested leads for my NL, from plenty of people with NO computer at all.... 2) CNBC, Wed. 12th, 9:15 am, upsetting me again, had a story, of how "the market advance has broadened out to more groups than ANYONE predicted, in recent months, first, with Cyclicals rising, then, the small-caps popping"....WRONG, dammit--- I predicted most all this ! geez....if they had just contacted me months ago, I would have made millions of viewers money ....what a shame.... 3) O.C. Register, 5/12, "Pacific Sunwear sets first quarter record", sales +33 %, eps + 38 % --- but its stock, which I gave you herein as a put, only goes from 39 to 33 to 39 to 37....NO big new rise/high, dig ? More proof, that "great news" cannot often be linked with stock price moves, as you have learned.... 4) similarly, Wed.12th, O.C.R., "new Broadcom chip 10 x faster than rival's technology", "delivers info. 10 x faster over copper wires, almost as fast as fiber-optic networks....signs agreements with DELL, CSCO, NT, HWP, COMS." The point is, its "stock", has gone from 95 to 47 to 99, also, with NO huge new all-time highs "on the great news".... 5) Thu. 13th, Sotheby's announced slightly lower losses, beat estimates, Wall St. "loves" this stock, right ? a CNBC reporter asked, "I thought the 'art market' was hot....why is BID down ?" oy. Answer: because its "PSYCLE sm" pattern says/said so....I gave it to you herein as a put, and "BID", again, falls 5 points....it has a potential double-double-top, see it ? but it's just another stock....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) Barron's C.E. Einhorn, whom I do like and respect, Mon. 10th, 11 am, said, "given the Bank of England's announced sales of 1/2 holdings of Gold, it is doubtful Gold can make much of a rise any time ahead for a while." ....gee, now she says that....after the S.T. drop....come to think of it, she did not favor nor predict its recent rise, either....I still see decent bottom just below.... 2) Donald Rowe does it again: writing, "the last 10 years, May has been the best month for the stock market, as pension money pours in"....he says "take advantage by buying now, especially Internet and Telecom and Tech. stocks, like, CNET, UNPH, QWST, at their highs...." Gee, all are on MY puttables list....let's see who wins this one....(UNPH a Q,S,L for us). He gave NO depressed stocks as buys....and, according to Yale Hirsch's respected Stock Market Almanac, historically, May has been one of the Worst months for stocks, going back several decades....Who to believe ?
e) and I just gotta say, furtehr proving their shocking ignorance, CNBC, Thu., 9:50 am, actually had on a "CFP" (who, by nature, NEVER look at charts, nor ever know anything of I.G. rotation, technicals, trading, timing, etc.) to supposedly explain "when one should sell a stock"....staggering....She (the CFP) mentioned ephemeral, miffy things like, sell "if there is a mgmt. change at a company", and/or, "if the stock has been performing poorly", and, did not even mention tax consequences until the interviewer did (gee, uh, aren't "financial planners" are supposed to know such things ?)....NO mention of chart patterns, breakdowns, stops, option hedges, price targets, I.G. rotation, etc. Thanks for nothing, again, CBNC. Any decent technician could have helped their viewers much more, yes ?
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
bal. stk.on.mgn. MRVC (6+ to 13+) for 200% Gain....bal. calls IV (13+ to 19+) for Q 166% G....1/2 pos. stock BDE (2 3/8 to 7 1/2) for 200% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. MLP (9+ to 15+) for 111% G....1/2 pos. stock HDG (1.06 to 2.25) for Q 100% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. ICO (8+ to 13-) for VQ 100% G....bal. puts CMGI. (280+ to 240) for Q 75% G....bal. puts COVD (110+ to 82-) for VQ 111% G....1/2 pos. puts MCD (47 to 39+) for VQ 100% G....bal. calls WWW (9++ to 14-) for Q 111% G.... stk.on.mgn. COE (4. to 6+) for 100% G....bal. calls RML (19+ to 25-) for Q 100% G....bal. puts ASML (47+ to 39) for VQ 90% G....bal. puts BUD (78+ to 69+) for Q 85% G....bal. puts LOW (64 to 54) for Q 90% G....
(cont'd.) bal. puts CNMD (33 to 29+) for 55% G....puts BBY (53+ to 46) for VQ 75% G....bal. puts DCLK (149 to 126) for VQ 66% G....bal. calls AM (22+ to 27-) for VQ 80% G....bal. puts BSYS (58 to 50) for Q 75% G....puts RGIS (26+ to 23+) for VVQ 75% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. MWY (8+ to 11+) for VQ 66% G....puts ORLY (48 to 42+) for VQ 55% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. HCM (4+ to 6-) for 55% G....1/2 pos. stock OMM (1 5/8 yo 2 1/2) for VQ 44% G.... puts MMC (80+ to 75-) for Q 33% G....bal. puts PSUN (38+ to 35+) for VQ 33% G....
and/but, longs, PAGE, ESH, CNU, MCL, UMR, and, puts, LVLT (92 to 83 to 93), MKL (184 to 160 to 187), GTSG (70 to 62 to 70), UIHIA, PGTV, SANM, UNPH, TROW, SNTC, TLAB, NTLI., GBLX, LVCI., ANET, CSCO, AGPH, WCII., IMCL, LNC, COX, WKR, HRL, PKS, BTY, HRZ, LLL, ADI., MKL, LSI., FRO, JPM, SGY, FM, LE, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....yikes....way too many QSL's in puts all-of-a-sudden....inexplicable ....but, of course, I'll bet almost none of my subscribers actually had any of those as Puts lately in reality.
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy any Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their
patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just
buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with
less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent,
for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions"
have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) 1/2 pos. ISSI. @ 2 5/8, PETM @ 8 5/8, PSFT @ 13-,
"Repeats": (some new) ADGO @ 3 11/16, AIMM @ 1 15/16, AOI. @ 2 9/16, ASL @ 7 3/4, ATV @ 1 3/8, AZC @ 9/16, BGO @ 5/8, BMG @ 2 11/16, CAU @ 0.20, CBJ @ 3 11/16, CCH @ 0.28, CNJ @ 15+, CPB @ 40, DAY, EAR @ 9/16, ECO @ 1 5/8, EGR @ 21 1/8, GLDR @ 1.06, GRERF @ 0.28, GSR @ 11/16, IFMX @ 6+, IOM @ 4 13/16, KEG @ 3, KRY @ 5/8, LFG @ 28++, LWN @ 15/16, NGX @ 0.53, PAH @ 4++, TBP @ 5-, VGZ @ 0.175, WH @ 15+, WIX @ 3 7/8....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds...."buy (only) low", right ? but not really that great a list, as I intimated recently.
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein,
countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT
"just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some
stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes
over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at
times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up
those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for
you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already
moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many
subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and
there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching"
NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly:
the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, PENN, NI., --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms ....we want only the EVB's, or bases, which set up properly....for one thing, we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first, and/or then more fully formed "bases", yes ?
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL. LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) AGN @ 95, ECL @ 42++, FDS @ 49-, IIN @ 40+, IR @ 70, MDS @ 35, NITE @ , QLTI. @ 50-, UHS @ 55, WB @ , "short the Nikkei. index around 17,250", and,
("Repeats"): AGPH @ 59+, AJG @ 48+, BBT @ 40-, BID @ 45+, BRK/A @ 7800, CM @ 45-, CSGS @ 40++, EGRP @ 120+, FFC @ 146+, FS @ 42+, GLW @ 59, GNE @ 88-, IPG @ 80, IVX @ 14-, MBK @ 15+, ORBK @ 50-, PCLE @ 57-, PE @ 48-, PSUN @ 39-, TVGIA @ 45-, VISX @ 70+, VRIO @ 72++, WKR @ , WON @ 36-, XCIT @ 165-....
and/but, took, JBL, VERT, VRSN, ONE, KOF, LC, STT, WAT, QCOM, TECH, COF, FULL, MOT, YNR, QRSI., WB, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here) ....any new highs = off the puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR benefit....
IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web
site, a stock might break its extended S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed
EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy, or
put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still Added, as above....So I
am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying
any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and
therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted....this takes
just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues
which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then
incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the process is Your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", CEXP, QNTM, SVRN, PSEM, TMD, ONX, MXG, GHV, RYC, AEP, KE, MT, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CPWM, FON, IPI., as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock here was specifically given herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
HDG 2 3/8 up 1 1/4 (sos), BDE 7 7/8 up 3 1/2 (sos), ABH 3 5/8 up 1 1/2, ATV 1 5/8 up 3/8, SOC 9 1/8 up 2 1/8, KMAG 4 7/8 up 3/4, SFSK 11 3/4 up 2 1/4, MANH 14 up 2 1/2, PAH 5 3/8 up 3/4, EEX 7 5/8 up 1 1/8, CPU 6 7/8 up 7/8, IFMX 7 5/8 up 1 1/8, RDRT 8 1/4 up 1 3/8, REL 10 3/4 up 1 3/4, WIX 4 5/8 up 3/4, SXTN 6 1/2 up 3/4, OMX 11 5/8 up 1 3/4, FTR 16 up 2, WDC 9 1/2 up 1 1/8, EGR 23 1/8 up 2 5/8, PETM 9 5/8 up 1 1/8, DSL 21 3/4 up 2 1/4, BGP 15 5/8 up 1 3/8, SPC 36 5/8 up 3 5/8, CDV 4 up 3/8, COE 6 1/2 up 1/2, CPB 43 1/4 up 2 3/8, GHM 9 1/4 up 5/8, MWY 11 5/8 up 3/4, ARM 15 1/4 up 1 1/4, ARW 19 7/8 up 1, TE 22 3/8 up 7/8, XTR 44 1/2 up 1 1/4, SAFC 45 5/8 up 1 1/2,
(cont'd.) FHCC 17 3/4, DATM 8, TCO 14, PNW 40, NSP 24 7/8, NCE 38 5/8, NSP 25 1/8, PRD 23 3/4, IGT 19 3/4 (sos), OCN 9 3/8, IOM 5 1/8, UFC 22 3/8, SYC 18 1/2 (sos), RML 25 (S), IV 19 5/8 (S), WWW 14 (S), PFC 8 up 1/2, LKI. 9 1/2, DHC 5 1/4, up/further, just since last time here....
note, IGT, XTR, approaching their 200 DMA....and, RAYS 15, DEX 41, PAM 9, higher still....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some subscribers,
who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds
for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above,
you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and
what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....always view the
one-year daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, GDC 3 1/4 up 1/2, SWW 3 1/8 up 3/8, ASPT 7 3/4 up 3/4, BDT 5 up 5/8, WH 16 3/8 up 1, PPW 17 7/8 up 3/4, RJF 23 1/4 up 1 1/4, SCZ 15 3/4, NPRO 1 7/8, SOC 7 3/4, SYBS, BBA, Golds, DRFNY, KMAG, NTN, HM 8 3/4, EEX, GSR, PFC, FTR, CBJ, SSN, AFCI., FCN, MPN, SCG, PSSI., SEV, FOTO, BXH, HEC, MSN, PLL, SUB, ADGO, CPU, AAC, UQM, TBP, KNE, AOI., FRTE, NPSI., KEG, SGU 15 3/4, ESC, ARM, RTC, NSD, HIV, APFC, TXB, CCH....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) ASL, BXH, AAC, ADGO, AIMM, WIX, LFG, SSC, GLDR, HOC, NPRO, LWN, HLX, OMM, MPN, SEV, TXB, PLL, TPS, AFCI., APFC, EAR, KEG, RYO, BKI., DAY, CAU, MSN, Golds.
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
QCOM -8, +2, EGRP -6, CSGS -6, PCLE -7, ANF -6, +1 1/2, AGN -4, BID +3 1/2, -5, QLTI. -3 1/2, SFC -3 1/2, SNTC -3, UHS -2 3/4, OTEX -2, FDS -2, ECL -1 3/4, TVGIA -1 1/2, GLW -1 3/8, LE -1 1/2, NSF -1, RGIS -1 (S), VYTL -1, GNE -1, HRZ -1, IVX -1, PL -1, IR -1 1/2, BRK/A -100, HTN, MBK, MCD, AJG, WON, PE, down/further, just since last time here....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On next Weakness,
towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously long Puts right
near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned,
for Your Benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little
time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....
let them do their thing.
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow):
again, we need to see many stocks break below recent lows/necklines, and, so
far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)"
sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after
"bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not
break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each
stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see"
previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn
patterns from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot" of stocks to review here, especially in the next two
sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times, right ?
View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT "chase
up".... only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their lows,
with stops for protection.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
Prec.Metals (GSR, NGX, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DRFNY, DAY, AZC, BGO, BMG, all real
cheapies, riskier, some may need more work/time)
Energy and Oil Svc. (MHR, SEV, KEG, etc., near their recent lows Only,
and, more stocks, as below, on bigger pullbacks, ahead)
Biotech/Health/Medical (EAR, AOI., SHG), note, not as much here....
Foods (adding, OJ, OPTS, UFD.B, VBAC, to, UFC, EGR, CPB)
R.E.I.T./finance/Healthcare/Utilities, potential high-yield-plus (AEP, GLB, HRP, PRT, SCG, NSP, AHE, NCE, PNW, NHI., PPW, NHP, ARM, BOY, CEI., HCR, TCO).... that this section had grown, said something about "interest-sensitive" I.G.'s, yes ?
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, AEP, ALL, CCC, DJT, GHV, PSFT, TMD, WGA, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) AAM, ABH, ADGO, AIMM, AN, ATV,
AVGLY, BAL, BEZ, BGP, BKI., BLM, BYX, CBJ, CDV, CELL, CNJ, CPB, CPU, CWC, DHC, DSL, DRFNY, EAR, FLM, FNL, GDC, GLDR, GRERF, HDG, HEC, HNV, IO., IOM, JOB, KEG, KMAG, LWN, MIDI., MSN, NTN, OCN, PFC, PRD, QNTM, RDRT, RTC, SAMC, SCY, SGU, SHOW, SSN, SWW, TBP, TCO, TIE, TMD, TTRIF, TWA, UDG, UFC, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....still, not that great a list....which should tell you something about "the marketplace".
New, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: added, ABTX, DJT, MWHS, to, IHS, ONX, ONPT, DATM, GISH, PBY, NOW, QSII., PSFT, PRCM, SVRN, CHRZ, TGX, ZAP, SVM, "Foods", CBRL, LDW, WDC, ISSI., as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead ....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work.... and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, this is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They
only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Medical: AGPH, GNE, etc.
Internet-oriented: CNET, GNET, EGRP, etc.
(all other "internets/techs/computer/telecom, etc." are in two lists just below,
**** new ones: added, AEOS, AMCC, CPWM, DRQ, FON, IIN, IPI., IR, ISCA, IVX, KSWS, LE, NDN, NITE, NTBK, OK, PHCC, RFMD, TGNT, UHS, WON, to,
("repeats") ADRX, ADVP, AGN, AJG, ANF, ARMHY, AWRE, BBT, BID, BKB, C., CNET, CNCX, CNXT, CUST, EBAY, ECL, EGRP, ERTS, FDS, FLT, FM, FS, GLW, GMST, HDI., INKT, INSUA, IPG, LEVL, LVLT, MMC, MTNT, NZT, ORBK, PAYX, PCLE, PE, PGTV, PL, QLTI., QWST, RNWK, TEVIY, TSG, VRIO, VYTL, XCIT, YUM....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at least Semi-parabolic: Online Brokerage/Banking, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Retail, Insurance/Finance/Banking (though some Banks are iffy, and some Insur. are also longs), Entertainment, Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and all Tele.-Commun., some Airlines, near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks, as some tops broaden....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: When I give/add an industry group as a long or short, and YOU know of other stocks in that I.G., especially if those are real low (longside) or real extended (putside), please feel free to let me know, and I will check it's pattern for you....you never know when a stock that YOU find, in MY groups, fits my "PSYCLE sm" as well....when it does, it helps us all....
**** The following several paragraphs are in every NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding, and
giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have not
had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from 12/7/98 NL, through
the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any
time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops, and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....