1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Note our "fakeout breakouts" in, SNTC, LVLT, CSCO, FULL, DISH, GBLX, etc., which, just last NL, we had to take Q, S, losses in their Puts....oy....plus, the ones we "just missed", listed in sec. (3) below....some of which are re-added to sec. (7) below....we remain flexible....hey, some of you who did not cut their losses will probably end up doing well, just by giving a little more leeway, as suggested....but, these, again, though, shows the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns
Listen, if you have to, think of "puts" recently/here, as an "insurance
policy" of sorts, at least....protecting your 100 % long assets (stocks, bonds,
R.E., etc.)....think about it....do you have ANYTHING in your financial life,
which will RISE if prices fall ? didn't think so....Re-read my "Bownside"
Booklet....use a bit of the money you have recently raised from longside profits
in our Cyclicals and other stocks....you should have been making a little "put"
portfolio, as taught in the "guide" (re-read it as well)....with, say, one Bank,
one Insur., one Util., one Health-related, one Tech. stock put, etc., "the PSYCLE
sm Way"....hey, if you make money in Puts, that's just a bonus....
Looks like our expected May-July correction has begun in earnest....Will likely occur, in stages, down, if at all....Remember, initial downside targets (re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet) are, either, previously-broken-above levels, and/or their still-rising MA's....often occuring in two steps, etc. It is up to YOU, to know/SEE where those levels are, on the chart....No greed....No emotion. BTW, if you do want some pertinent "index" stuff, the "necklines" I have been mentioning herein, which, if they are broken below, would be worse for the bulls/market, are: NASDAQ 2060, then 1940....DOW 10,740....S & P 1316....just FYI....Of course, anyone on the exchange floor with half a brain (don't get me started), knows this also, already, dig ?
Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable,
staged, stocks, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into
each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....again, the "Most Actionable,
Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). The
"Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2). Longer lists,
and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7)....and all "follow-ups", are in
sections (4) and (5). If you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5),
you can choose to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL
"sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage over time.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1)
DJ. Util. Avg. over 321, coming/came into res. 323- ish....obviously, our Utils. are already up, too late to "begin" buying....in fact, note, some Sales among Insur. and Util. stocks, in sec. (3)....Remember, last summer herein, when "the 95 %" were super-bullish on interest rates, I was among the very, very few, calling for a rise in the T-Bond I.R., in two steps, towards the 6 % level....as of Fri., 5.95 %....if they are going to go higher, would still need another pullback in rates, first.... 2) in an allied manner, I was, as usual, the first/only to give out several Banks, Insur., Utils., Bells, as Puttables herein for you (BBT, MBK, CMB, C., BAC, MMC, IPG, FFC, FLT, EQ, PE, etc.)....well ? did you buy any of their cheap puts ? Technical note: last weeks' pops among Financials, may have carved-out overhead resistance for the future ? we shall see.... 3) note, many Cyclical Machy./Cap. Goods stocks have S.T. tops, as well....another new Puttable I.G. for you.... 4) not a formal prediction yet, but the "lowish volume" of trading, Monday 17th, is NOT usually a super-bullish sign....it shows complacency, i.e., not enough selling, yet, not enough fear yet, dig ? What one wants to see, is huge volume, after a bigger drop, throwing in towel action, V.S.T., yes ? we shall see.... 4) as I mentioned a while ago herein, keep your eye on the "necklines" of Internet stocks.... 5) and, yes, on bigger pullbacks only, other "Food" stocks, like, CAG, RAL, ABTX,, CQB,, MAV, MFW, etc., may shape up....we shall see....not very sexy, though....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper comments from the
Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) a possibly valuable comment, 5/7, UPS, the
InvestTech Market Analyst, said, "even a mild bear market would wipe out more
equivalent economic growth than any selloff of the past 60 years.....which would
have a psychologically grinding effect on investors as they watch their waelth
vanish, producing more selling pressure....remember, the public now has about 45
% of their net household assets in stocks, a historical high, and double the
level of 1990." His comment is interesting, since, as you know, I also see
potential reversals of some 17-year trends, like, R.E. topping, stocks
correcting, I.R.'s rising, and some "pain" among daytraders upcoming.... 2)
CNBC's Mark Haynes, Fri. 14th, 7:55 am, commenting on the further drop in bonds and I.R. up a bit more, said, "how much worse can it get ?" Showing a VERY
misleading chart of the monthly CPI. rate, going from 0.1 % to 0.7 %, as if it
was an internet stock.....amazing....BTW, they also said, "without energy price rise, the CPI was up a lot less"....Please re-read my "Media" and "Scenarios" booklets, as to the shananigans the Govt. and Media pull, in trying to "color/slant" economic items, etc. The point was, that Energy prices WERE up, which THEY did not predict....What do they think ? that that somehow might not matter to consumers ? geez.... 3) CNBC, Fri., noon, the oversensationalizing Alan Chernov (again), said, "investors are bailing out of all the Financial and Brokerage stocks...." Excuse me ? first, how is just a 5-7 % drop, "bailing out", and, second, "investors" do not "bail out" on small corrections, dummy...if anyone did, it would be "traders", right ? "investors" hold, right through all corrections, yes ? ....4) CNBC's Bob Pisani. said, 10:05 am, "the hemmoraging in the NYSE's A/D line is abating"....excuse me ? what "hemmoraging" ? gee, guy, if you just looked at the A/D line in recent days/weeks, you'd see a steady UP-trend, yes ? NO "hemmoraging" to be seen....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.:
1) a potential biggie: Evidently, the "Russell 2000" Index is going to
"rebalance", June 1, by REMOVING the extended Internet stocks from its Index,
which I previously discussed herein....in the hope of getting that Index back to
its lower-market-cap roots....we shall see....but, more importantly, the only
reason some money mgrs. have been outperforming, is Because of getting fortunate
in the Internet stocks, yes ? They worry, that those Funds may underperform
again, forward, after those stocks are removed....obviously, Fund mgrs. have been
criticized for NOT having had the Internet stocks till up here, but I digress.... Of course, I will tell you, since many Internet issues are ripe for a decline, this may actually help their results, forward....makes sense ? The article says, "it's as if they (mgrs.) can't win....they'll be underperforming the Russell 2000 Index, forward, as well." I say, find the best stocks WITHIN any Index, and do no Index trading, but you know this already.... 2) Thu. 13th, Gap Stores announced "record earnings"....of course, its stock, which I just missed, but did give you herein near its high as a puttable, is down from 70-75 towards 60 already....so, no big bounce on the "good news"....dig ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) Just for the record, until I hear otherwise,
Thu. 13th 1:00 pm, Tom McLellan, of "Oscillator" fame,
on KWHY-tv, said, he
dislikes Gold still, period, and sees no Gold rallies for rest of 1999, thinks
Crude Oil will be down rest of 1999, maybe approaching the $ 11-12. level again,
really likes the T-Bond to rise rest of this year, as IR's fall....obviously, he
and I differ....but he also sees an impending correction into July for extended
stocks.... 2) a soundbite from an unnamed wing-tip analyst, 9:10 am, Fri., "don't
worry, be happy"...."inflation is never coming back, and we do not think PE's
will adjust downward in Tech. stocks, even if I.R.'s rise, since I.R.'s do not
affect fundamentals of Tech. stocks much." wow....fade that guy, ay ? ....3)
CNBC, Fri. 14th, 10 am, Merrill initiated coverage of Venator, at $ 10+, with a
12-month target of $ 15.....big deal....I gave out "Z", in my NL, early 1999, under $ 5., rose to 200 DMA, pulled back, then stage 2 here, dig ? Lesson: "Z" down there, looked to me, similar to "KM" around $ 6., technically and fundamentally, when I got people in it, back then....sold KM quickly, around $ 11-12, if I recall....after pulling back it rose to $ 25. or so, in two years--- at which point Wall St. "began to like it", dig ? Anyway, I am Not predicting the same for "Z", but, learn, that NO firms EVER buy stocks like this near "PSYCLE sm" lows....and this is the ONLY major B-firm even liking "Z" up here around $ 10-11, so far, right ? But anyone buying "Z" near lows, is already up 150 %....Of course, most firms will wait until "they see a serious turnaround in earnings, yadda, yadda", and, some may "begin" to recommend "Z", higher still, only when/if it rises more, down the road....get it ? the pattern NEVER changes....gee, how do I get on CNBC ? BTW, the CNBC reporter incorrectly also said, "Venator is soaring"....but, in reality, up 15-20 % is NOT "soaring"....oy...."Mr. sensationalizing everything just to make a story" strikes again.
4) CNBC, Fri., 12:15, a super-fast-talking Jack (missed last name) from Equity & Commerce Futures Cp., said, gleefully, from the exchange floor, "this correction is a WONDERFUL buying opportunity in stocks, and bonds....we have absolutely NO worries unless the T-Bond rises to 8 % yield....focus on all that is simply wonderful with the economy....this economy will make the Industrial Revolution look like a small blip, historically....we have much, much higher to go from here ....all lights are green." wow....hope this guy studies some historical cycles ....I still see beginning of the end, for the hot economy, as well.... 5) CNBC gal interviewed Art Hogan, of Jeffries, Mon. 17th, 8:55 am, who LOVES the stock market, still.... his top pick, "NITE", "a safe Internet play"....huh ? look at their chart ! "safe" ? I don't think so....parabolic....on MY puttable list.... He also said, "the selling in IBM and NITE has been overdone"....geez, guy, what selling ? none yet, in fact....these stocks have not fallen much at all, yet....wrong.... 6) again, Mon. CNBC, 9:25 am, heard that second guy (didn't catch his name, just another author, a nontrader, who has no real L.T. track record, dig ?) prognosticating "Dow 100,000 by year 2025", based on nothing in particular....so what, who cares ....Any prediction like that is totally USELESS in reality....what good does that do anyone, now ? Ridiculous....what a waste.... He gave no interim specific reasons, no I.G. rotation, but, see ? he said it, just to get on TV (and it worked, once), and, of course, some people will buy his book, I guess....I blame the Media for promoting such a guy....oh, and he only got on CNBC, because he writes for a major financial mag already, dig ? I wonder what he predicted, years ago, when the Dow was only 1,000 or 3,000....gee, I suppose if another nonexpert says, "Dow 200,000", I guess CNBC will rush to get HIM on ? Gee, maybe "Dow 3,000" again might also work ? hmmmm....P.S. I do have a book called, "Dow 3,000" written after the 1987 crash, and everybody laughed....
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
bal. calls MI. (13- to 18-) for Q 200% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. MANH (7+ to 13) for 133% Gain....bal. stock BDE (2+ to 7+) for 200% G....bal. stock HDG (1.06 to 2+) for 90% Gain...bal. calls ARW (15 to 19-) for Q 90% G....calls SCG (22+ to 26-) for VQ 90% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. ICO (8+ to 13-) for Q 100% G....calls SPC (29 to 35+) for VQ 85% G....bal. calls XTR (38 to 44+) for VQ 85% G....calls SAFC (39+ to 46+) for VQ 75% G....1/2 pos. calls NCE (34 to 38+) for VQ 100% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. VOO (6- to 8+) for VQ 75% G....1/2 pos. stock DHC (3to 5+) for % G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. SYC (12+ to 19) for % G....bal. stk.on.mgn. EEX (5 1/8 to 7-) for Q % G....1/2 pos. calls PRD (19+ to 23+) for VVQ 55% G....bal. calls IGT (14+ to 19+) for Q % G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. SCZ (12+ to 15+) for 44% G....
and/but, longs, CNJ (15+ to 18+ to 15+), EAR, and, puts, TEVIY, UNFY, CUST, WKR, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....yikes....way too many QSL's in puts recently....inexplicable ....but, again, of course, I'll bet almost none of my subscribers actually had any of those as Puts lately in reality.
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy any Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their
patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just
buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with
less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent,
for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions"
have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) 1/2 pos. NOV @ 1 3/4, SVM @ 18 1/8, ZAP @ 8 7/16,
"Repeats": (some new) ADGO @ 3 11/16, AIMM @ 1 15/16, AOI. @ 2 9/16, AZC @
9/16, BGO @ 5/8, BMG @ 2 11/16, CAU @ 0.20, CBJ @ 3 11/16, CCH @ 0.28, CNJ @
15+, DAY, ECO @ 1 5/8, GLDR @ 1.06, GRERF @ 0.28, GSR @ 11/16, IOM @ 4 13/16,
KRY @ 5/8, LFG @ 28+, NGX @ 0.53, PSFT @ 13-, TBP @ 5-, VGZ @ 0.175....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds...."buy (only) low", right ? but not really that great a list, as I intimated recently, and, list is still SHRINKING ! what has that told you about "the market" ?
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein,
countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT
"just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some
stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes
over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at
times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up
those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for
you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already
moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many
subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and
there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching"
NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly:
the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, , --- Off the pot. Long Buys list,
before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms
....we want only the EVB's, or bases, which set up properly....for one thing, we
MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first, and/or
then more fully formed "bases", yes ?
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL. LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) AGPH @ 61-, ATI. @ 100-, BDY @ 31+, BKB @ 50+, CBS @ 46+, COF @ 175+, CSN @ 22+, DRQ @ 25, EBAY @ 194, EQ @ 71++, GLK @ 49+, ISCA @ 56-, KSWS @ 46+, LEVL @ 53-, NT @ 75-, NTBK @ 64, PHCC @ 36-, PTZ @ 45, PVT @ 42+, RYAAY @ 47+, TGNT @ 58, VCI. @ 38, YNR @ 43,
("Repeats") note revisiting some recent names again: BBT @ 40-, BTY @ 174, C. @ 75-, CM @ 44++, CNMD @ 33-, ECL @ 42+, ERTS @ 53-, FFC @ 146+, FLT @ 44+, FM @ 27, FS @ 42+, GBLX @ 60+, GNE @ 88-, IDTC @ 30, IPG @ 80++, MDS @ 35, MMC @ 78+, NITE @ 77 1/2, PE @ 48, PSUN @ 39-, QWST @ 93++, SBA @ 26+, TVGIA @ 45-, VISX @ 70+, VRIO @ 72+, WON @ 35+, and, "short the Nikkei. index around 17,250", and, "the U.S. Dollar @ 101. again"....
note: you , again, had MULTIPLE opportunities to buy these Puts, right at suggested prices, in recent weeks....no excuses....check to see which of these stocks remain near their highs, still puttable there....as some are already down....
and/but, took, ADRX, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....any new highs = off the puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR benefit....
IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web
site, a stock might break its extended S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed
EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy, or
put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still Added, as above....So I
am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying
any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and
therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted....this takes
just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues
which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then
incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the process is Your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", ABTX, VBAC, OPTS, UFD/A, PRCM, OJ, PBI., TWA, ICP, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, TROW, RFMD, MEDI., AMCC, HDI., MHP, NDN, OK, BJ, ANN, DHR, FON, DAL, CUM, ATHM, QQQ, AEOS, ASND, CSCO, DISH, INSP, LVLT, VRTY, XMCM, ZION, KSS, IBI., GM, F., FRO, WB, PVN, UTX, XRX, GWW, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock here was specifically given herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
KEG 3 5/8 up 5/8, VOO 8 3/8 up 2, AFCI. 9 7/8 up 1
3/4, MHR 4 up 1/2, BCP 6 1/4 up 5/8, BGP 17 1/8 up 1 1/2, WH 17 3/8, SYC 19 19 1/8 (sos), PAH 5 1/2, SAFC 46 3/4 (S), REL 10 7/8, NCE 38 3/4, OMX 11 3/4, FHCC 18 3/8, SAMC 6 3/8, AM 28 1/4, WIX 5 up 3/8, CDV 4 1/4, up/further, just since last time here....
and, note, CIN, HTCH, PRD, AN, XTR, GLB, IO., CAS, hit their 200 DMA....and, IGT, PNW, PZE, REL, approached their 200 DMA....and, PCAR 62, GSB 26, KMT 30+, IV 19 3/4, PGA 10+, TXI. 36, HCC 22+, PMK 25+, UPX 3 1/2, UWW 11+ (we got another takeover offer), WYG (18, got another takeover), CSE 49+ (yet another takeover) higher still....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some subscribers,
who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds
for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above,
you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and
what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....always view the
one-year daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, HIV 2 5/8 up 3/8, BXH 6
1/8, GDC, SWW, ASPT, BDT, PPW, RJF, NPRO, SOC, SYBS 9 1/8, BBA, Golds, DRFNY, KMAG, CDV, REL, RDRT, DSL, SXTN, HM, GSR, PFC, FTR, CBJ, SSN, AFCI., FCN, MPN, PSSI., SEV, FOTO, HEC, MSN, PLL, SUB, ADGO, CPU, AAC, UQM, TBP, KNE, AOI., FRTE, BAL, NPSI., SGU, ESC, ARM, RTC, NSD, APFC, TXB, CCH....some of these are also in
"ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) ISSI., AAC, ADGO, AIMM, SSC, GLDR, HOC, NPRO, PSSI., SYBS, UQM, LWN, HLX, OMM, MPN, SEV, TXB, PLL, TPS, APFC, RYO, BKI., GSR, DAY, CAU, MWY, RDRT, MSN, KNE, FLM, MWY, Golds.
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
NITE -14 1/2, NTBK +3, -20, EBAY +8, -27 1/2, +2, COF -11, EGRP -10, XCIT -13, NTBK -9 1/2, DCLK +5, -13, COF -10, VISX -6, TGNT -7, MMC -7, NITE -5, BRK/A -450, AXP -4 1/2, VRIO -4 1/4, LEVL -4 1/2, C. -5, TI. -5, ISCA -4, IPG -4, KSWS -5, GLW -5, IDTC -4, ERTS -3, EQ -4, ANF -3 1/2, PAYX -2 1/2, PCLE -2, BAC -3, BBT -2 1/2, FLT -2, YNR -3, FFC -3, DHR -3, GBLX -3, VRIO -3, NT -2 1/2, CNMD -2, BKB -2, RYAAY -1 1/2, AGPH -1 1/2, ANF -2 1/2, BID -2 1/2, AGN +2, -3 1/2, PHCC -2 1/2, ATI. -2 1/2, PE -2 1/2, CSN -1 1/2, ECL -1 1/4, IIN -1 3/8, CBS -1 3/8, RYAAY -1, WON -1 1/4, QLTI. -2, FM -2, OTEX -1, UHS -1, MDS -1, GNE -1, FLT -1, MBK -3/4, IVX, IR -1 1/2, AXP, down/further, just since last time here....
and, falling: BEBE, ELNK, INTU, approaching their 200 DMA....and, COVD, OTEX, PCLE, hit their 50 DMA....and, BID approaching its 50 DMA....and, GNSS 17-, SEPR 75, DT, fell still further....over time, expect to see more issues falling towards thei support levels....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On next Weakness,
towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously long Puts right
near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned,
for Your Benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little
time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....
let them do their thing.
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow):
again, we need to see many stocks break below recent lows/necklines, and, so
far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)"
sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after
"bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not
break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each
stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see"
previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn
patterns from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot" of stocks to review here, especially in the next two
sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times, right ?
View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT "chase
up".... only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their lows,
with stops for protection.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
Prec.Metals (GSR, NGX, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DRFNY, DAY, AZC, BGO, BMG, all
real cheapies, riskier, some may need more work/time)
Energy and Oil Svc. (MHR, SEV, KEG, etc., near their recent lows Only, and, more stocks, as below, on bigger pullbacks, ahead)
Biotech/Health/Medical (AOI., SHG), note, not as much here....
Foods (ZAP, OJ, OPTS, UFD.A, VBAC, WH, UFC, CPB)
R.E.I.T./Finance/Healthcare/Utilities, potential high-yield-plus (AEP, HRP, PRT, AHE, NHI., PPW, NHP, ARM, CEI., HCR, TCO)....that this section had grown, said something about "interest-sensitive" I.G.'s, yes ?
and, the "data/storage" stocks, ONLY after/on a bigger pullback....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, NWK, ORG, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) AAM, ABH, ADGO, AEP, AIMM, ALL, AN, ATV, AVGLY, BAL, BEZ, BGP, BKI., BLM, BYX, CBJ, CCC, CDV, CELL, CNJ, CPB, CPU, CWC, DHC, DSL, DRFNY, EAR, EGR, FLM, FNL, GDC, GLDR, GRERF, GHV, HDG, HEC, HNV, IO., IOM, JOB, KEG, KMAG, LWN, MIDI., MSN, NTN, OCN, PAH, PFC, PFST, PRD, QNTM, RDRT, RTC, SAMC, SCY, SGU, SHOW, SSN, SWW, TBP, TCO, TIE, TMD, TTRIF, TWA, UDG, UFC, WGA, ZAP, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....still, not that great a list....which should tell you something about "the marketplace".
New, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: added, VCR, TCA, BLD, XCL, TXM, EWBX, WEL, ATX, IDC, NETA, MXTR, PER, TSK, RGA.A, VTR, CGI., to, IHS, ONX, ONPT, DATM, GISH, PBY, NOW, QSII., PSFT, SVRN, CHRZ, TGX, SVM, "Foods", ABTX, MWHS, CBRL, LDW, WDC, ISSI., as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead ....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns.... don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, this is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They only
become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if they decline
towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over
time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns
? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Medical: VISX, GNE, IVX, AGPH, BDY, etc.
Internet-oriented: CNET, GNET, EGRP, NITE, NTBK, etc.
Telecom/Commun.: QWST, LEVL, etc.
Financial: BKB, COF, BBT, IPG, MMC, C., etc.
(all other "internets/techs/computer/telecom, etc." are in two lists just below,
**** new ones: added, ABDR, ALTR, AMFM, ASD, ATHM, ATI., BDY, BLDP, BOL, BSX, CBS, CCB, CLE, CTXS, CUM, DHR, DISH, DRQ, EL, EQ, EXPD, FULL, GLK, LLTC, LU, MACR, MEDI., NT, P., PBI., PTZ, PVN, PVT, RCL, RCNC, RYAAY, SAPE, SCH, SFE, TBL, TIF, UNH, UNM, UTX, VRTY, XLNX, XRX, and, almost all "Webs" securities (on the AMEX), to,
("repeats") ADVP, AEOS, AGN, AJG, AMCC, ANF, ARMHY, AWRE, BKB, CNET, CNCX, CNXT, CPWM, DRQ, EBAY, ECL, ERTS, FDS, FLT, FM, FON, FS, GLW, GMST, HDI., IIN, INKT, INSUA, IR, ISCA, KSWS, LE, LVLT, MTNT, NDN, NZT, OK, ORBK, PAYX, PCLE, PE, PGTV, PHCC, PL, QLTI., QWST, RFMD, RNWK, SNTC, TGNT, TSG, UHS, VCI., VOD, VRIO, VYTL, WAT, WON, XCIT, YUM, YNR....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: adding, Machy./Cap. Goods, Energies, Automobiles, to, Online Broker/Banking, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Insurance/Finance/Banking (though some Banks are iffy, and some Insur. are also longs), Entertainment, Retial, Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and all Tele.-Commun., some Airlines, near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns ....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks, as some tops broaden....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: VIEW more charts of Puttables....period.
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from 12/7/98 NL, through
the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any
time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take this
time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....