Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, ended formally, back in early April 2000, with issue # 207+, a while ago....(so/but this NL is Not really being actually published formally, publically, any more, and has not been, for quite a while now ....I just wanted a place to keep track of what I would have said and done and felt, since I was forced undeservedly to stop my NL, months ago....this is ONLY for my own edification and proof of the value of my output and concepts to others), and anyone reading this has NOT gotten it from me....
dated: 9:00 am, PST, Friday, May 18, 2001


"2001: a Trading Odessey"

or, "The Patterns Rarely Change"

Important Note: this serious, very valuable "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, due to the too-often at least semi-gestapo, uncaring, ridiculous, illogical, NASD/SEC rules, and the uncaring, inconsiderate, and thoughtless nature of most all brokerage firms....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, here, twice each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance, very-long-term track record, and to offer further significant, in-advance, in-writing, 'proof' of the value and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

as I intimated last time here: see ? they got the majority all expecting disappointment and declines from obvious S.T. resistance levels (me included to a small extent, though, as you know, we rarely do 'indexes', and continue(d) to buy and do very well on the Longside regardless), and, Wed./Thu., got more pops up, among Longs and Puttables....

recall, my thoughts that, in normal "PSYCLE sm" sentiment, because 'the 95 %' were expecting A, the market did B instead....but the A/D line et al did look S.T. roll-over-y, and we wonder whether Wed./Thu. pops may end up being the sucker-in type, then down a bit anyway, then up higher after, dig ? just to upset the max. no. of people out there who are too-often late in anticipating the patterns....

of interest, evidently 'Investors Intelligence % bullish' just fell, real fast, from 61 % (too high) to 44 % (much better), already....and, evidently, the CBOE's Put/Call ratio already rose to 81 %, another sign to be less bearish and more bullish, in my depressed stocks, pullbacks accepted....a broken record from me since calling the April lows....

also, as I intimated last time here, surprising recent strength among some of our Puttables confirms why one must have had, and must still have, way more Longs here, regardless of any real or perceived, internal or external market 'stuff' ....that some Puts are QSL's this week, were, once again, way overbalanced to our favor, by the many more QLG's among our Longsiders, no damage overall, and portfolios still rising....

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....it also has made trading Puttables more difficult temporarily....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) surprised but pleased with new upside breakouts in more Gold stocks...our cheapie-laggards acting well as expected.... 2) they did it again....MSDW just went super-bullish on some already-up-a-lot-from-where-only-I-was-among-the-first-to-predict levels Semiconductor stocks.... 3) perhaps they will do it again: recent L.A.T. highlighted the "Bank" stocks index - at possible rolling tops, yes ? we shall see....so far, 1/2 and 1/2.... 4) watching Energy stocks, with puzzling pops again here, must weaken anew or else....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) in their latest wrong-right-at-the-bottom article, James Lowell, in "Investment Advisor" Mag. April issue, "Down but not out", hammered the Tech. stocks, just as I was giving properly as S.T. buys herein....of interest he wrote, "a dead cat - without the bounce....", and, "the dot.coms are dead -a nd rightly so....can this sector rebound ? not yet....and perhaps not at all if earnings continue to erode...."< then, a nonsense sentence: "even if Tech. stocks rebound this year, there's a built-in potential for a decline." Huh ? now ?, or, as with 95 % of all reporters, is he just reporting the past as if the future (a "PSYCLE sm" tenet you habve learned to recognize and take advanatge of) ? Then he writes, "despite the marked stock price drops, it's still safe to say the hype was justified." Huh ? how so ? from the publication date of this article, YOU made a mint S.T. long Techs herein, yes ? the pattern rarely changes....next....

2) in another amazing display of drivel, after Pres. Bush supposed Energy Plan ann., Thu., CNBC asked, "so, how can an investor profit from this plan in stocks ? might they begin to look into Energy stocks here ?" - unbelieveable - where the hell were these people 2-3- years ago ? 'nuff said....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) evidently, U.S. gasoline inventories continue to rise....interestingly, 'U.S. refinery capacity utilization' fell further from 95.6 % to 93.5 % last week....hmmmm....and people stil believe the whole Energy thing was not even partially contrived and manipulated....what a shame for us all....dont get me started again.....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) David Moore, on Multex, 5/11, S.T. bearish, but also said, "there are many bullish factors which may mean higher stock prices...." IN other words, as with nmost all these NL guys, he has no idea, and shares less useable stuff....when asked, "what do economic factors mean to future stock prices ?"< he answered, "it depends on underlying market conditions and treaders' focus" - again, meaning, he has no idea....dig ? last, as I hear from just about every guy out there, "if the NASDAQ breaks above 2300+, on huge volume, then i will become bullish" - again, probably late/high, as usual, compared to US, yes ? 'nuff said....

3) oh, and here's one from B. Schaeffer's commentary recently, which backs me up again: his '5 rules of trading', include: 1) anything can happoen any time, 2) you dont need to know what is happening in order to make money trading, 3) the distribution of wins and losses are random, 4) an edge is only a higher probability of one thing happening over another, 5) every market moment is unique.... Well, what do YOU think of those nebullious and unhelpful tenets ? B.S. apologized in a recent 'learning from my mistakes' missive recently ....But I still see too little education and historical help with patterns from him....but I continue to give him some creedence, often as a contrary indicator, sometimes correct....and wish him the best....remember, he definitely says now, equuals Jan./Feb. in Techs....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ?

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....

"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:


bal. stk.on.mgn. BCGI (6+ to 12+) for 155% Gain....bal. calls AV (11 to 15) for VQ 133% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. BELM (7+ to 10) for VQ 65% G....1/2 pos. calls HPC (12- to 14+) for VVVQ 66% G....1/2 pos. calls SVU (12+ to 14++) for Q 66% G....1/2 pos. calls UTHR (11 to 14) for VQ 111% G....

and/but, longs, , and, puts, MMM, FCX, JNJ ?, GE, VAR ?, UTX, SSP, CF, SNPS, UPC, FCX.A, FCS, the DJIA ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:

(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs):
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:

1/2 pos. ADPT @ 8+, 1/2 pos. GLW @ 20+, 1/3 pos. GSPN @ 15+, 1/2 pos. ITCD @ 5 1/8, 1/2 pos. NUAN @ 10+, 1/3 pos. STHLY @ 8 1/8, 1/2 pos. TEO @ 14+, 1/2 pos. WGRD @ 5, (note, IGL was not bt., removed B4)
1/2 pos. BID @ 18, BSX @ 15+, 1/2 pos. CLTK @ 11+, HPC @ 11+, 1/2 pos. IMDC @ 19++, 1/2 pos. PNK @ 9+, POM @ 21+,

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): ATHM @ 3 3/4, AVX @ 17++, BGO @ 0.405, CDX @ 16, DSS @ 11+, FON @ 20++, GTS @ 0.60, HNV @ 0.26, IBIS @ 15++, IOM @ 3+, KFY @ 15++, KGC @ 0.46, KRY @ 3/4, MPH @ 15-, NT @ 13, NTOP @ 7+, ORCL @ 16-, STG @ 0.56, PLD @ 20-, TRLY @ 8+, UTHR @ 11, VGZ @ 0.08, ZMBA @ 1 3/8...."buy (only) low", right ?

** Important: took, PALM, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops:
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): ENZN ?, EXPD @ 60-, RSLN @ 26+,
1/2 pos. GSB @ 29++, 1/2 pos. MCK ?, 1/2 pos. SOTR @ 26++, the Dow at 10,900+ ?, the NASDAQ around 2,200 ?,

"Repeats": APC ?, BWA @ 45+, CHG @ 44++, CIN @ 35+, ICCI. @ 28, KMI. @ 60-, PB @ 18-, BWS @ 20+, CHD @ 25, CNT @ 47+, EXC @ 69+, JNJ @ 102- ?, LHP @ 46+, ORI. @ 29....

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, UTX, SLOT, IGT, EXPD, DNB, CHD, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", RSH, NEV, SEPR, NMSS, NUFO, CMRC, PIII, AWRE, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, JEF, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):

**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).



acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn the pattern, more:
wow, what a continuing great period for us....still many more Long Gains for you:
KGC 0.90 up 0.22, ITCD 5.88 up 0.82, NUAN 13.33 up 3.12, CLTK 14.25 up 2, MWBX 7.75 up 1.15, NTOP 8.78 up 1, LENS 7.38 up 0.30, PNK 9.75 up 0.44, BSX 16.3 up 1.1, UTHR 14.00 up 2.58, HPC 14.45 up 1.15, GLW 22.1 up 2.1, CBJ 0.50 up 0.05, ADPT 9.05 up 0.75, GSPN 17.1 up 1.83, BOW 52.50 up 4.16, STHLY 8.6 up 0.5, MPS 6.06 up 0.52, AVX 19.33 up 1.53, CTC 14.61 up 1.11, MSLV 10.35 up 1.55, NT 14.58 up 1.58,

more still: POP 14.8 up 1.1, BID 19.50 up 0.66, LENS 7.48m KFY 20.1, DSS 11.9, NR 12.14, POM 22.74, HELE 8.99, SVU 14.7, ATHM 4.12, CRO 10.05 up 0.31, IMDC 21, HIFN 17.9, IOM 3.55 up 0.20, N. 19.93 up 0.71, TEO 15.61 up 1.06, PPE 12.09, KFY 20.55, TG 21, PGO 11.75, NCX 23.46, TEK 27.56, LUX 15.39, TG 20.5, BSX 16.43, higher since last NL here.... and, EAS, MT 5.35, higher still....

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and more bounces after pullbacks:
as expected, most all Techs pulling back a bit (giving you ample opp. to buy more near lows !), TRLY 8.6 up 0.5, PMTC 13 up 1 1/2, NT 13.9 up 0.9, NTOP 8.16, BOW, KRY, RCG, BKI, HNV 0.26, VRA, FON 20.5 (B), MLT 8.99 up 0.49, PRIA, TG, VRTA 11.7, REMC 9+, LTD 15.90, 17.25, HPC, EPNY, ITCD, MWBX 7.35, GTW, STTX, DCLK 13.35, GTS, VGZ....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....


and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:


(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) KANA, AWE, STG, MPH, PNK, LUX, BLC....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:

(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, stick around:

Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out to learn:
EXPD -1, NASDAQ -100, WSC -2, lower, some further, since last NL here....

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):

: VAR, EXC -1, WSC, LNCR +2 1/2, CNT, ORI, BWS, KMI. -2 1/2, JNJ +2, -1 1/2, APC +3 1/2, APA +2 1/2, MMM +3, NBR, SSP +1, VAR +2, EAT +2, CIN, ICCI. +1 1/2, SLM....this ends our 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):


and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals/steel" (CBJ, KRY, STTX, KGC, etc.)
depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, most Chem., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Papers, Apparel, etc.
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):

We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy), ACLA, AKAM, ALXN, CTLM, MC, TVX, MEH ?, KEYN, EMIS, GSLI, NUFO, NUAN, VITR ?, AUGT, DT, CA, ENE, NLI, BSX, APW, EEX ?, FP, NTT, ECILF, NEV, KPN, to, ADCT, AVNX, CELG, DRTE, CCUR, IBIS, DTHK ?, CNXT, CMRC, FLSH, IMDC, ORCL, MEDI. ?, METHA, MDCC, NTRO ?, NEWP ?, WEBM, WMUX, PCLE ?, DIGX, VOD, IGL, JRC, POM, ALN, SBC, CDX, CDO, GL, PNK, POP, PDQ, BID, DSS, WGRD, OPTV, ATHM, HIFN, INFY, MONI, GSLI, XTND, INKT, CMNT, LUX, ADTK, ARBA, DZTK, LENS, SCMR, GILTF, ITCD, MFNX, NMSS, LVLT, PR, MSLV, ACTM, AWRE, KNSY, BKHM, TRLY, MRD, IBI, LTD, GLW, BRIO, ADPT, KFY, MLT, AVX, IOM, EGLS, UFI, NTOP, RCG, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, as all others have been Removed:

* add, SOTR, GENZ, ENZN, MSCC, RSLN, LEN, FMBI, JNJ ?, to, LSTR, MSCC, MCK, GSB, FRE, FNM, LEH, EDS, MEE, VZ, BCS, THC ?, TSN, FRX, DTE, BWS, TXU ?, CNI, STR ?, PL, WTM ?, ITT ?, CIN, DVA, ESRX, CHG, HCA, ORI, WSC, PB, PHCC, ITG, BSYS, HSIC, VAR ?, BJ, ASBC, LNCR, IVGN, CNT, INSUA, from recent past NL's....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Loans, Disc. Chains, S.E. Banks, HMO's/health care, food/bev., Aero./Def., Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services, Commercial Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Homes-related/bldg., Media, Shoes/Apparel, Railroads, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES