1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) surprised but pleased with new upside breakouts in more Gold stocks...our cheapie-laggards acting well as expected.... 2) they did it again....MSDW just went super-bullish on some already-up-a-lot-from-where-only-I-was-among-the-first-to-predict levels Semiconductor stocks.... 3) perhaps they will do it again: recent L.A.T. highlighted the "Bank" stocks index - at possible rolling tops, yes ? we shall see....so far, 1/2 and 1/2.... 4) watching Energy stocks, with puzzling pops again here, must weaken anew or else....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) in their latest wrong-right-at-the-bottom article, James Lowell, in "Investment Advisor" Mag. April issue, "Down but not out", hammered the Tech. stocks, just as I was giving properly as S.T. buys herein....of interest he wrote, "a dead cat - without the bounce....", and, "the dot.coms are dead -a nd rightly so....can this sector rebound ? not yet....and perhaps not at all if earnings continue to erode...."< then, a nonsense sentence: "even if Tech. stocks rebound this year, there's a built-in potential for a decline." Huh ? now ?, or, as with 95 % of all reporters, is he just reporting the past as if the future (a "PSYCLE sm" tenet you habve learned to recognize and take advanatge of) ? Then he writes, "despite the marked stock price drops, it's still safe to say the hype was justified." Huh ? how so ? from the publication date of this article, YOU made a mint S.T. long Techs herein, yes ? the pattern rarely changes....next....
2) in another amazing display of drivel, after Pres. Bush supposed Energy Plan ann., Thu., CNBC asked, "so, how can an investor profit from this plan in stocks ? might they begin to look into Energy stocks here ?" - unbelieveable - where the hell were these people 2-3- years ago ? 'nuff said....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) evidently, U.S. gasoline inventories continue to rise....interestingly, 'U.S. refinery capacity utilization' fell further from 95.6 % to 93.5 % last week....hmmmm....and people stil believe the whole Energy thing was not even partially contrived and manipulated....what a shame for us all....dont get me started again.....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) David Moore, on Multex, 5/11, S.T. bearish, but also said, "there are many bullish factors which may mean higher stock prices...." IN other words, as with nmost all these NL guys, he has no idea, and shares less useable stuff....when asked, "what do economic factors mean to future stock prices ?"< he answered, "it depends on underlying market conditions and treaders' focus" - again, meaning, he has no idea....dig ? last, as I hear from just about every guy out there, "if the NASDAQ breaks above 2300+, on huge volume, then i will become bullish" - again, probably late/high, as usual, compared to US, yes ? 'nuff said....
3) oh, and here's one from B. Schaeffer's commentary recently, which backs me up again: his '5 rules of trading', include: 1) anything can happoen any time, 2) you dont need to know what is happening in order to make money trading, 3) the distribution of wins and losses are random, 4) an edge is only a higher probability of one thing happening over another, 5) every market moment is unique.... Well, what do YOU think of those nebullious and unhelpful tenets ? B.S. apologized in a recent 'learning from my mistakes' missive recently ....But I still see too little education and historical help with patterns from him....but I continue to give him some creedence, often as a contrary indicator, sometimes correct....and wish him the best....remember, he definitely says now, equuals Jan./Feb. in Techs....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ?
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
bal. stk.on.mgn. BCGI (6+ to 12+) for 155% Gain....bal. calls AV (11 to 15) for VQ 133% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. BELM (7+ to 10) for VQ 65% G....1/2 pos. calls HPC (12- to 14+) for VVVQ 66% G....1/2 pos. calls SVU (12+ to 14++) for Q 66% G....1/2 pos. calls UTHR (11 to 14) for VQ 111% G....
and/but, longs, , and, puts, MMM, FCX, JNJ ?, GE, VAR ?, UTX, SSP, CF, SNPS, UPC, FCX.A, FCS, the DJIA ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. ADPT @ 8+, 1/2 pos. GLW @ 20+, 1/3 pos. GSPN @ 15+, 1/2 pos. ITCD @ 5 1/8, 1/2 pos. NUAN @ 10+, 1/3 pos. STHLY @ 8 1/8, 1/2 pos. TEO @ 14+, 1/2 pos. WGRD @ 5, (note, IGL was not bt., removed B4)
1/2 pos. BID @ 18, BSX @ 15+, 1/2 pos. CLTK @ 11+, HPC @ 11+, 1/2 pos. IMDC @ 19++, 1/2 pos. PNK @ 9+, POM @ 21+,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): ATHM @ 3 3/4, AVX @ 17++, BGO @ 0.405, CDX @ 16, DSS @ 11+, FON @ 20++, GTS @ 0.60, HNV @ 0.26, IBIS @ 15++, IOM @ 3+, KFY @ 15++, KGC @ 0.46, KRY @ 3/4, MPH @ 15-, NT @ 13, NTOP @ 7+, ORCL @ 16-, STG @ 0.56, PLD @ 20-, TRLY @ 8+, UTHR @ 11, VGZ @ 0.08, ZMBA @ 1 3/8...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, PALM, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): ENZN ?, EXPD @ 60-, RSLN @ 26+,
1/2 pos. GSB @ 29++, 1/2 pos. MCK ?, 1/2 pos. SOTR @ 26++, the Dow at 10,900+ ?, the NASDAQ around 2,200 ?,
"Repeats": APC ?, BWA @ 45+, CHG @ 44++, CIN @ 35+, ICCI. @ 28, KMI. @ 60-, PB @ 18-, BWS @ 20+, CHD @ 25, CNT @ 47+, EXC @ 69+, JNJ @ 102- ?, LHP @ 46+, ORI. @ 29....
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, UTX, SLOT, IGT, EXPD, DNB, CHD, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", RSH, NEV, SEPR, NMSS, NUFO, CMRC, PIII, AWRE, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, JEF, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern, more:
wow, what a continuing great period for us....still many more Long Gains for you:
KGC 0.90 up 0.22, ITCD 5.88 up 0.82, NUAN 13.33 up 3.12, CLTK 14.25 up 2, MWBX 7.75 up 1.15, NTOP 8.78 up 1, LENS 7.38 up 0.30, PNK 9.75 up 0.44, BSX 16.3 up 1.1, UTHR 14.00 up 2.58, HPC 14.45 up 1.15, GLW 22.1 up 2.1, CBJ 0.50 up 0.05, ADPT 9.05 up 0.75, GSPN 17.1 up 1.83, BOW 52.50 up 4.16, STHLY 8.6 up 0.5, MPS 6.06 up 0.52, AVX 19.33 up 1.53, CTC 14.61 up 1.11, MSLV 10.35 up 1.55, NT 14.58 up 1.58,
more still: POP 14.8 up 1.1, BID 19.50 up 0.66, LENS 7.48m KFY 20.1, DSS 11.9, NR 12.14, POM 22.74, HELE 8.99, SVU 14.7, ATHM 4.12, CRO 10.05 up 0.31, IMDC 21, HIFN 17.9, IOM 3.55 up 0.20, N. 19.93 up 0.71, TEO 15.61 up 1.06, PPE 12.09, KFY 20.55, TG 21, PGO 11.75, NCX 23.46, TEK 27.56, LUX 15.39, TG 20.5, BSX 16.43, higher since last NL here.... and, EAS, MT 5.35, higher still....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
as expected, most all Techs pulling back a bit (giving you ample opp. to buy more near lows !), TRLY 8.6 up 0.5, PMTC 13 up 1 1/2, NT 13.9 up 0.9, NTOP 8.16, BOW, KRY, RCG, BKI, HNV 0.26, VRA, FON 20.5 (B), MLT 8.99 up 0.49, PRIA, TG, VRTA 11.7, REMC 9+, LTD 15.90, 17.25, HPC, EPNY, ITCD, MWBX 7.35, GTW, STTX, DCLK 13.35, GTS, VGZ....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) KANA, AWE, STG, MPH, PNK, LUX, BLC....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
EXPD -1, NASDAQ -100, WSC -2, lower, some further, since last NL here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals/steel" (CBJ, KRY, STTX, KGC, etc.)
depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, most Chem., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Papers, Apparel, etc.
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy), ACLA, AKAM, ALXN, CTLM, MC, TVX, MEH ?, KEYN, EMIS, GSLI, NUFO, NUAN, VITR ?, AUGT, DT, CA, ENE, NLI, BSX, APW, EEX ?, FP, NTT, ECILF, NEV, KPN, to, ADCT, AVNX, CELG, DRTE, CCUR, IBIS, DTHK ?, CNXT, CMRC, FLSH, IMDC, ORCL, MEDI. ?, METHA, MDCC, NTRO ?, NEWP ?, WEBM, WMUX, PCLE ?, DIGX, VOD, IGL, JRC, POM, ALN, SBC, CDX, CDO, GL, PNK, POP, PDQ, BID, DSS, WGRD, OPTV, ATHM, HIFN, INFY, MONI, GSLI, XTND, INKT, CMNT, LUX, ADTK, ARBA, DZTK, LENS, SCMR, GILTF, ITCD, MFNX, NMSS, LVLT, PR, MSLV, ACTM, AWRE, KNSY, BKHM, TRLY, MRD, IBI, LTD, GLW, BRIO, ADPT, KFY, MLT, AVX, IOM, EGLS, UFI, NTOP, RCG, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, SOTR, GENZ, ENZN, MSCC, RSLN, LEN, FMBI, JNJ ?, to, LSTR, MSCC, MCK, GSB, FRE, FNM, LEH, EDS, MEE, VZ, BCS, THC ?, TSN, FRX, DTE, BWS, TXU ?, CNI, STR ?, PL, WTM ?, ITT ?, CIN, DVA, ESRX, CHG, HCA, ORI, WSC, PB, PHCC, ITG, BSYS, HSIC, VAR ?, BJ, ASBC, LNCR, IVGN, CNT, INSUA, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Loans, Disc. Chains, S.E. Banks, HMO's/health care, food/bev., Aero./Def., Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services, Commercial Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Homes-related/bldg., Media, Shoes/Apparel, Railroads, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES