1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Yet, once again, Monday, even at the intraday lows, still did not break the Extended Techs, Internets, Indexes, etc., most all of which held at their 50 DMA's and/or recent "necklines" support....But I still expect, the next declines, after more failed rallies, will do the trick, down, into July, on those types of stocks ....And, as expected/predicted, the McLellan Summation Index does seem to have formed a double-top, going back to last Fall....But, as i said, amazingly, after the "Fed" announcement, Tue. 18th, the DJIA fell right to that 10740 "neckline" level, which I gave you, and, again, did Not break....wow....they are really dragging this one out....The SPX fell to 13234, vs. its 13166 neckline....and the NASDAQ has lower-lows, and must get above 220+ to even go neutral, from semi-negative, technically.... so, None have broken --- yet. We are watching for that....
Also note how many individual I.G.'s we have caught, up and down, in Rotation, lately, with areas, like, Media, newly falling, and, depressed Techs newly rising, INDEPENDENTLY of/within "indexes"....read sec. (2) items (a)....
Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable,
staged, stocks, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into
each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....again, the "Most Actionable,
Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). The
"Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2). Longer lists,
and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7)....and all "follow-ups", are in
sections (4) and (5). If you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5),
you can choose to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL
"sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage over time.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) note the drop in the Nikkei. Index, from 17,300 to 16,120 low, Monday, so far.... 2) the XOI. Energy stock Index, broke an accelrated uptrend, as predicted, and is correcting....realize how many people, and pros, are now "stuck" in Oils near recent highs....hah....and Cyclicals, too, dig ? normal "sucker-them-in-late" job, yes ? allied, 5/18, the Amer. Petroleum Institute announced that Crude Oil inventories grew 2.5 MM barrels last week....hmmmm....geee, didn't all the 'experts' 'guarantee' that the Mid-East countries' production cutbacks would stick, and that 'we are entering the summer driving season, and that demand for gas would rise forever' ? see ? as I taught you, even the "fundamentals" were wrong at the S.T. top.... 3) note the recent predicted drops among Gaming and Energy stocks, which I gave you herein near their lows, off the predicted "loved in stage 2 and covered, late, by the Media and Wall St." highs....normal.... 4) I gave you DGN herein, in nice base around $ 10., specifically telling you it was a possible takeover....add, to, CSE, UWW, WYG, RYC, which I also gave you near their lows, recently, as "potential-mergers-plus-a-Psycle-pattern" stocks, dig ? Sometimes, we get both, the chart pattern, and a takeover, because it was a cheap compnany....
5) note, the USDX index must weaken, and the CRB index must strengthen, all-of-a-sudden, so am watching those closely here.... 6) see the new all-time high in DJ. Util. Index, over 326., and the several gains I gave you in those stocks herein near their lows....Again note, how the Utils. rose, even as the T-Bond fell....and, the DJ. Trans. Avg. also fell, as predicted/expected....they are NOT "automatically linked", as "the 95 %" incorrectly assume....re-read my Booklet on "Scenarios and Linkages, the PSYCLE way"....I have no major upside price objective readable yet, in the DJ. Util. Avg....so we go by each individual stock's chart pattern within that I.G. ....7) also note, the nice bounces we are getting, among our depressed Tech. issues given you herein near their lows.... interesting, since I have NOT heard anyone else recommend such stocks recently, so, again, we were the first/only to give them out.... 8) and, the recent predicted weakness among Airlines (in DJ. Trans. Avg., yes ?)....interesting, suince, as I mentioned previously here, predicted rise in Airlines WITH energy prices RISING, and, now, both are pulling back TOGETHER, dig ? cool.... 9) last, among "Commodities",, remember when I gave you "Coffee" commodity, as potential "PSYCLE sm" bottom, herein, in March, around 103-104 ? Well, it rose, then was a QSL, but recently, note rise, from 98.5, to 122....now has potential double-top around 123+....and the media keeps trying to "talk Sugar down negatively"....but on a pullback, Sugar, L.T., may shape up, so I will keep eye on it for you....and, I recently mentioned how, on KWHY-tv, how late 'come-ons' by guys on that station, marked my predicted S.T. top in Copper and other Cyclicals ? Well,
There's a lesson to be learned, how, when depressed, NO one else on that station liked Copper at $ 0.63, in stage 1 base, when I gave it to you herein as a "PSYCLE sm" bottom....it was ONLY after the big price rise, that the "commodity brokers and salesmen" began their pitch, already up in stage 2, around $ 0.73, dig ? Remember, we ONLY get inklings of "fundamental improvements", in something, AFTER prices are ALREADY up....YOU have to buy, BEFORE it begins to "seem better" ....Gosh, how many times have I said THAT, in my output ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper comments from the
Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) CNBC's Bill Griffith, Mon. 17th, 10:15 am, interviewing CEO's of "CSE" and "NH", on their merger: "so, do you feel maybe thet your industry has finally bottomed out ?" Get it ? He asks "if", when, in fact, the "Farm Eq." stocks (which I was the first and Only to give as Buys bnear their lows herein for you), an I.G. which Wall St. hardly EVER looks at, are ALREADY way UP, in their "PSYCLE sm"....Lesson: you gotta buy depressed, technically, based almost SOLELY on the chart pattern, when there is NO "good" news at all.... 2) Bob Pisani. CNBC< Tue. 18th, 8:35 am, actually said, "there are some people finally beginning to believe the rally in Cyclicals is for real." Wow....He mentioned how bullish they said AA, PD, DOW, etc., look here at recent highs....dig ? he said, "the big crack a lot of people expected in the Cyclicals, has not, yet, happened." Just wait, guy.... 3) Joe Kernan, CNBC, Tue. 18th, 9:30 am, said, "PZN is just getting crushed, getting real bloody..." Down from $ 20, to $ 14, recently, is down, but not "crushed/bloody"....I mean, what words would he use to characterize its previous, bigger % move/drop, from $ 44. to $ 16. ?
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.:
1) on KWHY-tv, Tue. 18th, 9:20 am, they interviewed pres. of "KIDE," a puttable/shortable stock I gave you herein....its chart pattern, and comments by its CEO, were exactly what is ALWAYS said, in late stage 4, as with other similar toy/TV show/entertainment/video game company stocks from history, like, Coleco, Knickerbocker, Mattel, and Galoob, Atari, etc., before they fell, dig ? .... parabolics, in this I.G., often disappoint.... 2) Tue. 18th, Kmart announced a $ 1. bill. potential buyback of shares, over $ 17....gee, where were they when we gave it out herein, around $ 6. ? ....CNBC reporter said, KM said "it is entering what it calls, a growth phase." Yeah, and, exactly as I taught you, its stock is already up a ton by that time, dig ? late stage 2, yes ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) Bert Dohmen (again), KWHY-tv, 1:20 pm, Wed. 19th, is very bullish on the market, saying, Internet stocks look absolutely incredible here, INKT, CMGI., Netopia...." Now ?
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
1/2 pos. puts ANF (98+ to 80+) for VQ 111% G....1/2 pos. calls RJF (18 to 23) for Q 100% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. OMX (8 to 12-) for 90% G....puts OTEX (39- to 31+) for VQ 100% G....1/2 pos. puts PCLE (57- to 48+) for Q 85% G....bal. calls AM (22+ to 28-) for Q 90% G....1/2 pos. puts BID (45+ to 38-) for VQ 75% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. ICO (8+ to 12+) for VQ 80% G....1/2 pos. puts AXP (135+ to 120-) for VQ 66% G....1/2 pos. puts COF (175+ to 160-) for VVQ 50% G....1/2 pos. stock WS (1 5/8 to 2 11/16) for 55% G....
and/but, longs, MPN, HOC, and, puts, VOD (200- to 170 to 200+), SCAI., CNMD, VYTL, PHCC, GTSG, BTY, ASL, ATI., FFC, NT, IPG, CSN, BDY, TSG, BDY, and, "the U.S. Dollar", for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....yikes....way too many QSL's in puts recently....inexplicable....but, again, of course, I'll bet almost none of my subscribers actually had any of those as Puts lately in reality.
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy any Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their
patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just
buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with
less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent,
for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions"
have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) ALL @ 36++, OJ @ 5.06, SVRN @ 13-,
"Repeats": (some new) ADGO @ 3 11/16, AIMM @ 1 15/16, AOI. @ 2 1/2, AZC @
9/16, BEZ @ 19+, BGO @ 5/8, BMG @ 2 11/16, CAU @ 0.20, CBJ @ 3 11/16, CCH @ 0.28, DAY, ECO @ 1 5/8, GLDR @ 1.06, GRERF @ 0.28, GSR @ 11/16, IOM @ 4 13/16,
KRY @ 5/8, LFG @ 28+, NGX @ 0.53, NOV @ 1 3/4, SVM @ 18+, TBP @ 5, VGZ @ 0.175, ZAP @ 8+....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds...."buy (only) low", right ? but not really that great a list, as I intimated recently, and, list is still SHRINKING ! what has that told you about "the market" ?
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein,
countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT
"just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some
stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes
over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at
times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up
those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for
you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already
moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many
subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and
there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching"
NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly:
the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, , --- Off the pot. Long Buys list,
before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms
....we want only the EVB's, or bases, which set up properly....for one thing, we
MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first, and/or
then more fully formed "bases", yes ?
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL. LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) BOL @ 81+, EXPD @ 63+, FITB @ 72+, FULL @ 68+, GLK @ 49+, INSS @ 44, LVLT @ 89, OSSI. @ 35++, RCNC @ 49-, SCH @ 120-, TBL @ 74, TIF @ 85, UNM @ 57+,
("Repeats") note revisiting some recent names again: CBS @ 45+, COF @ 175+, DRQ @ 25, EBAY @ 198-, EQ @ 70+, FS @ 42+, GBLX @ 60+, GLK @ 49+, NITE @ 77+, PE @ 48+, PSUN @ 39-, PTZ @ 45, PVT @ 42+, QWST @ 92++, RYAAY @ 47+, SBA @ 26+, TGNT @ 59+, VCI. @ 38, VISX @ 70+, VRTY @ 40-, WON @ 36-....
note: you , again, had MULTIPLE opportunities to buy these Puts, right at suggested prices, in recent weeks....no excuses....check to see which of these stocks remain near their highs, still puttable there....as some are already down....
and/but, took, SNTC, PGTV, AGPH, UNH, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....any new highs = off the puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR benefit....
IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web
site, a stock might break its extended S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed
EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy, or
put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still Added, as above....So I
am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying
any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and
therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted....this takes
just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues
which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then
incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the process is Your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", NETA, PRCM, IFMX, PTSI., PER, MMG, IDC, ORG, AEP, TSK, NI., as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CTXS, PVN, AFL, MHP, IPI., as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock here was specifically given herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
TBP 6 1/4 up 1 3/8, DGN 15 up 3, PSFT 17 up 3 1/2, MTSI. 15 3/8 up 2 3/4, HXL 11 3/8 up 1 3/4, AAC 7 1/4 up 1, ASPT 8 7/8 up 1 1/8, AFCI. 11 3/8 up 1 1/2, BCP 6 1/2 up 5/8, BXH 6 1/2 up 5/8, MHR 4 3/8 up 1/2, CDV 4 7/8 up 5/8, LDW 7 1/2 up 7/8, SYBS 9 3/4 up 7/8, SVRN 13 3/4 up 1, FHCC 20 up 1 5/8, DATM 8 1/2 up 7/8, GHM 9 1/2 up 5/8, OCN 9 1/2 up 5/8, SYC 20 1/4 up 7/8 (sos), ALL 39 1/2 up 3, CPB 43 1/2 up 2 1/2, PNW 42 up 2 1/8, VOO. 8 7/8, CPU 7 1/2, NSP 25 5/8, OMX 12 1/8, UFC 22 3/8, ARM 15 5/8, NCE 39 3/8, TE 23 3/8, LFG 29 1/4, WH 18, up/further, just since last time here....
and, note, CIN, HTCH, PRD, AN, XTR, GLB, IO., CAS, hit their 200 DMA....and, IGT, PNW, PZE, REL, ORI., approached their 200 DMA....and, PCAR 62, GSB 26, KMT 30+, IV 19 3/4, PGA 10+, TXI. 36, HCC 22+, PMK 25+, UPX 3 1/2, CS 13 1/4, PRCM 5 1/4, UWW 11+ (we got another takeover offer), WYG (18, another takeover), CSE 49+ (another takeover), and, RYC 36- (yet another new takeover), higher still....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some subscribers,
who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds
for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above,
you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and
what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....always view the
One-year Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and/or bounces off pullbacks: NPRO 2 1/2 up 5/8, HLX 6 3/8 up 1 3/8, ABH 3 1/8 up 1/2, KEG 3 3/8 up 3/8, BDT 4 5/8 up 3/4 (could be in stage 2), DSL 21 1/8 up 1 7/8, CHB 21 1/4 up 1 1/4, TAROF 6 3/8 up 1/2, then 5 3/4, REL 10 up 5/8, BXH 6 1/4, PRD 23 3/8, ASPT, BGP, HIV, GDC, SWW, PPW, EGR, SOC, BBA, Golds, DRFNY, KMAG, SXTN, GSR, FTR, CBJ, SSN, FCN, PSSI., SEV, FOTO, HEC, MSN, PLL, SUB, ADGO, AAC, UQM, KNE, AOI., FRTE, NPSI., SGU, ESC, RTC, NSD, APFC, TXB, CCH, BS....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) EEX 6 7/8 up 3/4, COE 6 1/2, AAM, ISSI., AAC, ADGO, AIMM, SSC, GLDR, SFSK, BBA, NPRO, RJF, PSSI., UQM, LWN, OMM, SEV, TXB, PLL, AOI., TPS, APFC, RYO, BKI., GSR, DAY, TPS, CAU, MWY, MSN, KNE, FLM, MWY, HM, Golds.
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
NTBK +2, -12 1/2, GBLX -9, COF +8, -17, +3, XCIT -5 1/2, VRIO -4 1/2, TIF -4 1/2, ANF -4 1/2 (S), NITE +7, -11 1/2, NZT -2 5/8, INSS -2 1/2, FULL -1 3/4, OSSI. -2 1/4, PAYX -2, EXPD -2, FDS -2, BOL -2 3/8, TBL -3, CBS -1 1/2, UNM -1 1/2, RCNC -1 1/2, FITB -1 3/8, BBT -1 1/4, ECL -1, GNE -1, QLTI., OTEX (S), SCF (S), DHR -1 1/4, VCI. -1, DRQ -1, PCLE (S), PTZ, BKB, YNR, WON, AGN, FLT, MBK, AXP (S), GLW, TI., IR -1, down/further, just since last time here....while, OTEX, PCLE, BID, COF, fell to their 50 DMA....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On next Weakness,
towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously long Puts right
near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned,
for Your Benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little
time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....
let them do their thing.
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow):
again, we need to see many stocks break below recent lows/necklines, and, so
far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)"
sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after
"bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not
break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each
stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see"
previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn
patterns from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot" of stocks to review here, especially in the next two
sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times, right ?
View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT "chase
up".... only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their lows,
with stops for protection.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
Prec.Metals (GSR, NGX, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DRFNY, DAY, AZC, BGO, BMG, all
real cheapies, riskier, some may need more work/time)
Energy and Oil Svc. (MHR, SEV, KEG, etc., near their recent lows Only, and, more stocks, as below, on bigger pullbacks, ahead)
Biotech/Health/Medical (AOI., SHG), note, not as much here....
Foods (ZAP, OJ, OPTS, UFD.A, VBAC, WH, UFC, CPB)
R.E.I.T./Finance/Healthcare, potential high-yield-plus (HRP, PRT, AHE, NHI., ARM, CEI., HCR, TCO)....that this section had grown, said something about "interest-sensitive" I.G.'s, yes ?
Insur./Financial: (LFG, SVRN, ALL, ORI., DSL) (SPC, SAFC, HCC, are already up)
and, the "data/storage" stocks, ONLY after/on a bigger pullback....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, NWK, ORG, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) AAM, ABH, ADGO, AIMM, AN, ATV, BAL, BEZ, BGP, BKI., BLM, BYX, CBJ, CCC, CELL, CPB, CPU, CWC, DHC, DRFNY, EGR, FLM, FNL, GDC, GLDR, GRERF, GHV, HDG, HEC, HNV, IO., IOM, JOB, KEG, KMAG, LWN, MIDI., MSN, NTN, PAH, PFC, PFST, PRD, QNTM, RDRT, RTC, SAMC, SCY, SGU, SHOW, SSN, SWW, TBP, TCO, TIE, TMD, TTRIF, TWA, UDG, WGA, ZAP, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....still, not that great a list....which should tell you something about "the marketplace".
New, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: added, IFMX, VCR, TCA, BLD, XCL, TXM, EWBX, WEL, ATX, IDC, NETA, MXTR, PER, TSK, RGA.A, VTR, CGI., MPN, to, IHS, ONX, ONPT, DATM, GISH, PBY, NOW, QSII., CHRZ, TGX, SVM, "Foods", ABTX, MWHS, CBRL, LDW, WDC, ISSI., as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, this is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They only
become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if they decline
towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over
time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns
? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Health, Medical: VISX, GNE, IVX, UHS, UNM, GLW, AGN, BOL, QLTI., etc.
Internet-oriented: CNET, GNET, EGRP, NITE, EBAY, VRIO, etc.
Telecom/Commun.: QWST, LEVL, FON, VOD, TGNT, DISH, CBS, LVLT, etc.
Financial: BKB, COF, BBT, MMC, C., FITB, PAYX, CCB, PVT, SCH, EQ, AFL, etc.
Retail: TIF, VCI., LE, CLE, CPWM, PSUN, TBL, etc.
Cap. Goods/Machy./Cyclicals: CUM, IR, PBI., FULL, GLK, etc.
(other "techs/computer/software/semis/media, etc." , Puttables, are in two lists just below,
**** new ones: added, DELL, to, ABDR, ALTR, AMFM, ASD, ATHM, BLDP, BSX, CTXS, DHR, DRQ, EL, EXPD, LLTC, LU, MACR, MEDI., OSSI., P., PTZ, RCL, RCNC, RYAAY, SAPE, SFE, VRTY, XLNX, XRX, and, almost all "Webs" securities (on the AMEX), to,
("repeats") ADVP, AEOS, AJG, AMCC, ARMHY, AWRE, CNCX, CNXT, CPWM, DRQ, ECL, ERTS, FDS, FM, FS, GMST, HDI., IIN, INKT, INSUA, ISCA, KSWS, LEVL, MTNT, NDN, NZT, OK, ORBK, PE, PL, RFMD, RNWK, WAT, WON, XCIT, YUM, YNR....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: adding, Machy./Cap. Goods, Energies, Automobiles, to, Online Broker/Banking, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Insurance/Finance/Banking (though some Banks are iffy, and some Insur. are also longs), Entertainment, Retial, Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and all Tele.-Commun., some Airlines, near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns ....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks, as some tops broaden....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: Some unenlightened people keep asking me, "what specific news or fundamental event/items, would 'cause' the drop expected into July ?" True "PSYCLE sm" students know, we never "scenarioize", nor care, about such things....to us, that way of thought is wasted brain activity...."the 95 %" and all the supposed 'experts', painted stupid negative scenarios about Russia, Asia, Energy prices, last Spring/Summer, and, as usual, they were wrong....Re-read my "Scenarios" booklet !
Concentrate instead, on what IS, and the patterns that ARE --- not "what could be, if certain things happen certain hypothetical, juxtapositional ways"....If you are not actually LOOKING at the charts of at least stocks in sec. (3), and learning the special PATTERNS given you, you will not achieve what you could/should from trading/investing (unless you just get lucky, which is always nice, of course). You must make/take the time to do this ....Learn my stuff now, and you will save tons of time, for years to come, yes ?
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from 12/7/98 NL, through
the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any
time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take this
time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....