1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) don't kid yourself, the Gold stocks move, now that all the Media is all over it (the pattern rarely changes), look to lighten up further into any strength, and already should have taken BIG gains from herein, yes ? ....2) well, CNBC, Tue. early, finally mentioned the 'alt. energy stocks', like our CPST, HPOW, PWER, etc., meaning, very late, right ?....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) Fri., Pisani, "with Crude OIl making new high, those Oil stocks just do NOT go down...." - we shall see, Mr. rarely-correct.... 2) May 20 marked the 10-yr. anniv. of Ron Insana and Bill Griffeth on CNBC, from FNN.... 3) surpised to see recent 10-yr. chart of "T-bond yields' in L.A.T., and, lo and behold, showed me a double-bottom in YIELDS - get it ? therefore, ean expectation of HIGHER yields after bottoming ahead soon, dig ? since I hear almost NO one else out there seeing/saying this, as usual, down the road, i will have been among the first/few to have predicted it - with no one caring or acting on it, out there, to the potential benefit of millions of people....it ain't easy being me....
4) I loved seeing huge front-page bullish piece in L.A.T. on GOTO, glowing, etc., as usual only after big stock p[rice run - which, as you know, I was certainly the first/only to give out herein at lows, yes ? the pattern rarely changes....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) more proof of my predioctions, as new data shows that EXPORTS by/from Calif. elsewhere have also been slowing.... and, the Fed said mfg. 'capacity util.' nationwide fell to 78.5 %, lowest in 10 yrs., and, O.C. office space vacancy rate, is up from 8 % to 11 % in recent months as well...
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) none....wonder if thatmeans anything....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) it is difficult to cont. to recant how terrible Gov. Davis of Calif. is making the power provlem....now, he is pissing off the very power comapnies who can help us, with his stupid statements and threats....hey, I didn't vote for him.... 2) and, simlarly to what power companies and gas stations are doing, recent L.A.T. reported that, even with Coffee spot prices way down, retail prices to consumers remain high....next....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
bal. stk.on.mgn. HPOW (6 to 15+) for Q 222% Gain....1/2 pos. calls X (14+ to 21-) for L.T. 175% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. EPNY (9 to 15+) for VQ 133% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. AKS (8+ to 14) for 111% G....at least 1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. PDG (8+ to 12 1/2) for L.T. 100% G....1/2 pos. stk.on..mgn. PGO (8++ to 12+) for Q 100% G.... bal. stk.on.mgn. CCRT (8 to 12+) for L.T. 111% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. BWL/A (6 1/2 to 10) for V.L.T. 111% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. NR (8+ to 13+) for 111% G....1/2 pos. stock BGO (0.20 to 0.40+) for 100% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. LENS (6+ to 10) for VQ 100% G....bal. calls NCX (18 to 24) for L.T. 125% G....
still more: bal. calls DD (40 to 50) for 80% G....all stock KGC (0.60 to 1.10) for VVQ 80% G....bal. calls PPE (10+ to 12+) for Q 66% G....1/2 pos. puts BOW (45 to 52) for Q 66% G....all stock KRY (0.75 to 1.50) for L.T. 90% G.....all stock VGZ ((0.09 to 0.15) for L.T. 60% G....all stock CBJ (0.30 to 0.55) for VVQ 75% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. DCLK (10+ to 16+) for Q 85% G....at least 1/2 pos. calls TEK (24+ to 29++) for Q 80% G....all stk.on.mgn. CRO (7+ to 10+) for Q 75% G ....bal. calls CLX (31- to 34+) for Q 40% G....1/2 pos. calls SVU (12+ to 15+) for Q 80% G....
and/but, longs, IOM, GTS, and, puts, GSB ?, JNJ ?, VAR ?, the DJIA ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. COMS @ 5++, CPQ @ 16, 1/2 pos. CTL @ 27+, MRD @ 16, 1/2 pos. WCG @ 4.62,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): ATHM @ 3 3/4, BGO @ 0.20, BSX @ 15+, CDX @ 16, DSS @ 11+, FON @ 20+, GLW @ 20+, GTS @ 0.60, HNV @ 0.26, IBIS @ 15++, IMDC @ 20-, ITCD @ 5+, KFY @ 15++, KGC @ 0.46, KRY @ 3/4, MPH @ 15-, NT @ 13, NTOP @ 7+, ORCL @ 16-, STG @ 0.56, PLD @ 20-, PNK @ 9+, POM @ 21+, TEO @ 14+, TRLY @ 8+, VGZ @ 0.08, 1/3 pos. VRTA @ 11+, WGRD @ 5, ZMBA @ 1 3/8.... "buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, ACLA, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): AHG @ 28, 1/2 pos. COG @ 33 EDS @ 65+, 1/2 pos. FO @ 34+, JHF @ 38+, 1/2 pos. LLL @ 88+, RE @ 68+, 1/2 pos. RMD @ 56+, THC @ 45+, 1/2 pos. TSO @ 15+, 1/2 pos. WM @ 37-, (note, neither the DJIA nor the NASDAQ were 'put', yet)
"Repeats": APA @ 66, APC @ 67, BWA @ 45+, CHG @ 44++, CIN @ 35+, ICCI. @ 28, KMI. @ 60-, PB @ 18-, BWS @ 20+, CHD @ 25, CNT @ 47+, EXC @ 69+, JNJ @ 102-, LHP @ 46+, ORI. @ 29, EXPD @ 60-, RSLN @ 26+, 1/2 pos. GSB @ 30 ?, 1/2 pos. MCK @ 34+, 1/2 pos. SOTR @ 26++....
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, FNM, FRE, DTE, MSCC, ENZN, FRX, MND, PSC, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", METHA, AUGT, RNBO, MC, PR, NEV, ALN, SBSA, CCUR, DT, CMRC, ADPT, CLRS, AWRE, FIBR, CGEN, MDCC, SUNW, PIII, RNWK, SONE, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, APOL, CTX, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern, more:
wow, what a continuing great period for us....still many more Long Gains for you:
BGO 0.45 up 0.25, OPTV 13.19 up 3.19, HPOW 16+ up 4 1/2 (S), DCLK 16.30 up 3.30 (sos), KGC 1.20 up 0.22, LENS 10.07 up 2.59, WGRD 5.95 up 0.90, UMPQ 12 up 2, CBJ 0.58 up 0.08, EPNY 16.68 up 4.68 (sos), BKHM 6.19 up 1.39, NR 13 3/4 up 2 1/2 (sos), CCRT 12+ up 2 (S), COMS 6.50 up 0.85,
still more: DYAX 12.7 up 1, MRD 17.68 up 1.33, IBIS 17.5 up 1.4, PDG 12 1/2 up 1 (sos), MPH 16.38 up 1, SVU 15.476 up 1, ORCL 18.52 up 1.76, GSPN 18.51 up 3.15, CPQ 17.75 up 1.75, NT 15.4 up 1.2, HIFN 19.92 up 1,70, BSX 17.5 up 0.9, IMDC 21.99 up 1.31, TEK 29.85 up 1.95, MPS 6.51 up 0.46, MLT 9.9 up 0.7, PRIA 20.1 up 1.6, TRLY 9.1 up 0.7, GLW 23.7 up 1.1,
still more: WCG 4.87 up 0.27, AVX 20.9 up 0.8, TG 21.10, CTC 15.02, AKS 14 1/8 (sos), DSS 12.93 up 0.71, ITCD 6, UTHR 14.50, X. 20.97 (sos), N. 20.6 (sos), NT 14.7, PPE 12.3, CRO 10.68, PNK 9.88, BID 19.94, JWN 19.19, PR 17.9, HELE 9.1, NTOP 9.26, PLD 18.3, LTD 17.4, BLC 19.7, NCX 24.4 (S), MC 18.2, MWBX 7.93, PMTC 13.4, TEO 15.7, KFY 21.1, higher since last NL here....
while MT 5.75, EAS 21.2, even higher still....and, CCBL, ANTC, CREE, SQNM, SRNA, PGO, PPE, CS, CTC, approached/hit their 200 DMA....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
as expected, most all Techs pulling back a bit (giving you ample opp. to buy more near lows !), GSPN 15 1/2 (B), 18.15, TRLY 8.3 (B), 9.17, 8.4, RCG, BKI, HNV (B), VRA, COMS, UTHR 13.83, NTOP 8.65, MRD 16.9, MPH 14.9, 15.59, 14.9, VRTA 12.85 up 1.55, REMC, LTD, HPC, BOW 50-, GTW 19.35 up 1.35, STTX, GTS, VGZ....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) KANA, AWE, STG, LUX, HPC, BOW, FON, TEK....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
EDS -2 3/4, JHF -1, lower, some further, since last NL here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, most Chem., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Papers, Apparel, etc.
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy), CLRN, CFLO, CTL, CNH, NTT, ASPT ?, MCLD, ALGX, CLRS, AETH, BRIO, CRED, LBRT, MUSE, REMC, TERN, SYMM, SBSA, VITR ?, VASC, WFII, to, SUNW, AKAM, ALXN, CTLM, MC, TVX, KEYN, GSLI, AUGT, DT, NLI, BSX, APW, FP, ECILF, KPN, AVNX, CELG, DRTE, CCUR, IBIS, CNXT, CMRC, IMDC, ORCL, MDCC, NEWP ?, WEBM, WMUX, PCLE ?, DIGX, VOD, JRC, POM, ALN, SBC, CDX, CDO ?, GL, PNK, BID, DSS, WGRD, ATHM, HIFN, INFY, MONI, GSLI, XTND, INKT, CMNT, LUX, ADTK, ARBA, DZTK, SCMR, GILTF, ITCD, MFNX, NMSS, LVLT, PR, MSLV, ACTM, AWRE, TRLY, MRD, IBI, LTD, GLW, BRIO, ADPT, KFY, AVX, NTOP, RCG, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, CINF, MENT, RTEC, MOND, FHCC, BSTE, ASFC, MRCY, THQI, ACAS, AHG, NOI, FO, RE, JHF, LLL, LIZ, PEG, RMD, NBR, TDS, TGT ?, TS, WM, ZQK, SYK, to, SOTR, GENZ, MSCC, RSLN, LEN, FMBI, JNJ ?, MSCC, MCK, GSB ?, LEH, EDS, MEE, VZ, BCS, THC, TSN, BWS, TXU ?, CNI, STR ?, PL, WTM ?, ITT ?, CIN, DVA, ESRX, CHG, HCA, ORI, WSC, PB, PHCC, ITG, BSYS, HSIC, VAR ?, BJ, ASBC, LNCR, IVGN, CNT, INSUA, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Loans, Disc. Chains, S.E. Banks, HMO's/health care, food/bev., Aero./Def., Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services, Commercial Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Homes-related/bldg., Media, Shoes/Apparel, Railroads, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES