1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
And you know how I hate "index" stuff, but, the Investors Daily 6000 index, now around 870, projects down towards the 775 area, its 200 DMA....The S & P 500, now aorund 1340, has a 200 DMA around the 1230 area....so you get an idea of probable S.T. downside, anyway....as I write this, Mon. 24th a.m., the DJIA, NDX, and SPX, are trying to break below their "necklines" support I gave you recently ....I also specifically suggested here, that the recent relatively "lower volume", smacked of complacency, and was more bearish for Extended stocks, than bullish.... Who else has said that lately ? no one. Gosh, if one just threw 5 darts at my recent Puts lists, at worst, one would have likely had 2 big gains, and, maybe 3 small losses, so far, recently, diversified....or maybe 4 big gains, and one small loss....
Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable,
staged, stocks, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into
each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....again, the "Most Actionable,
Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). The
"Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2). Longer lists,
and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7)....and all "follow-ups", are in
sections (4) and (5). If you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5),
you can choose to save time by Ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL
"sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage over time.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) the Heng Seng Index falling already towards S.T. support, just below Thu. low.... was down another 3 % Thu., with Nikkei. low 15,950, so far.... 2) the DJ. Util. index new all-time high, almost 330., one 'measured-move' target would be in the 340-345 area, max., in a similar rise to that which occured in it, last Sept. ? ....3) note the very recent rises among some of our "cheapie" Gold stocks....did you buy any ? You had several chances to do so, near their lows, herein.... 4) Bob Pisani. CNBC, Fri., 8:30 am, listed the worst performing I.G.'s, and, guess what ? our Retail, Oil Service, Airlines, and Cyclicals, were the 1-2-3-4- biggest % price declines, recently --- exactly as I predicted herein for you.... you're welcome.... 5) "the CRB commodity index" itself, broke its predicted S.T. uptrend, when, as I intimated it might, herein, as it did not break above its S.T. resistance....still, it was another Gain for you, and we were among the very few to have predicted the rise, anyway.... 6) note initial drops among "Webs" securities I suggested as an I.G. recently as shorts herein, just as "the 95 %" 'began' to get bullish on many Foreign stocks --- late, as usual, and certainly they were way up already from where I gave many to you herein as buys near their lows, last year, yes ? ....7) the DJ. Trans. index, already down from 3800- to 3500-, projects down towards its breakout level, around 3300....hence I added some Railroads (which look similar to the cyclicals, chart-wise here) as S.T. tops/puttables.....and, on CNBC, Mon. 10:20 am, a money mgr. pointed out recent Insider sales among many Cyclical stocks....hmmmm....this confirms my technicfal pattern work, and probable S.T. tops in them....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper comments from the
Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) Thu. 20th, 11:15 am, CNBC's commercial 'grabber', was, "Keycorp stock has been Zooming, on takeover speculation....but what are their plans ? tune in tonite...." Nope....KEY has 'only' risen, from 30+ to 38 or so....certainly NOT "zooming", ay ? it also remains below its price last Spring, and its high of $ 44., yes ? So, wherefrom comes the 'zooming' comment ? ....2) L.A. Times, 5/17, a great article by Paul Kim, "Emerging-markets funds beckon anew- but look before you leap"....a surprisingly correct article.... He posited, do we get in now, up here, or do we recall the 1993 top-and-drop, the last time "the 95 %" liked the Asian Funds ? He pointed to how those MF's ended up gaving back all their previous gains, till mid-1998, from their 1993 tops, as I explained to you here....He also mentioned the 5 bull markets, and 5 bear markets, among 'Developing Nation Funds', in the last 30 years....with the "experts" being mostly wrong at tops, and bottoms, historically....He suggested these are 'trading" funds, at gbest, and not buy-and-hold, and, he suggested stop-losses, which you never read in such an article....good going, guy.... 3) when a caller-in asked about our depressed "PSFT", a skeptical Bill Griffith, CNBC, Fri. 9:25 am, said, "whoops"....another confirming bottom sign, get it ? ....4) CNBC's Bill Griffith, Monday, 9;40 am, also actually said, "the Utilities are starting to perk up here"....Excuse me ? "starting" ? Geez, they have BEEN rising, big-time, for weeks, already, guy...please look at a chart, Mr. Reporter, before commenting incorrectly....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.:
1) Am I the first/only guy, to see a developing depressed BASE, in the 5-year chart of the U.S. unemployment rate ? Even as the number of workers in U.S. increases over time, a base is a base, and therefore, fits my approach....If I am correct on a L.T. unwinding of 17-year trends in our economy/markets, etc., this WOULD occur, yes ? Then, the UE rate would rise at some point, while the economy cools off, dig ? Just another way to show that my "PSYCLE sm" can be applied to many items of financial bent.... 2) CNBC, Mon. 24th, 8:50 am, highlighted the Paper/Forest stocks, as "new buys", like, GP, IP, TIN, BCC, SSCC, WY, etc....late, as usual, with many stocks already up +50 to +100 %, and I recently added these I.G.'s as Puttables, S.T. tops ? ....3) and one probable Correct Analyst, CS- First Boston, downgraded, even issued outright sales, on 4 big banks, today.... cool....I was first, to give them as Puttables herein for you, also at higher prices than now, but it's always nice to be validated by a huge B-firm....it is also rare to see any big B-firm issue a sale anywhere near a high, on anything.... re-read my "Scenarios" and "Media" booklets.... 4) Alex, Brown, today, downgraded the Airlines, late, as usual, as many are already down, since I gave them to you herein as likely Puttables....they cited higher fuel costs....duh....But, gee, those "higher fuel costs" did not prevent them from RISING, as I predicted herein, before their recent tops, yes ? the Patterns never change.
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) recently, John "overrated/overexposed on CNBC" Murphy, said, "every time Gold rallies, the central banks dump it....I think it's a manipulated market...." Unbelieveable that a supposed good prognosticator in a position to influence millions, would say such a thing....and, of course, is false....Mark Haynes, CNBC, Fri. 21st, 8:20 am, said, showing Gold price chart, "it's a dismal picture"....But his guest said the cost of mining/financing/acquisitions made cheaply, are lower, keeping gold "stocks" hanging in/up on occasion....Which, as I say, has been the case....I still look for another low ahead, and not, a huge, new decline.... 2) a surprisingly senscient Internet analyst on CNBC, 9:22 am, Fri. 21 st, reminded us, that AOL's stock market value, is $ 8,000 per subscriber, here....yikes....that cannot last, as I said....But, then, he ruined it, by saying, "buy, buy, buy", to GE stock.... 3) Bob Prechter, interviewed on KWHY-tv, Fri., 10:20 am, still says stocks are way beyond overvalued (which is correct, BTW)....and he admitted he said they have been overvalued, by his reckoning, since 1978 (huh ?)....saying, "we've been completely wrong" (mostly bearish for years, etc.)....and, "the key, is knowing that, from whatever final top is formed, we WILL decline all the way back down, 70-80-90 % from that high, over time...." Wow. this has pretty-much been his same comments, even from the after-1987-crash lows....
4) and Frank Barbera, KWHY-tv, a pretty good technician, Fri., showed L.T. chart of Walgreen's PE ratio....it was ranging from 15-25 X, for years (like a depressed base, itself, dig ?), but, now, he agreed with me that "WAG's" PE was recently too high....I gave you WAG herein near high as a recently successful Q put gain....My point is this: How can a 'fundamentalist' say that, when WAG stock was $ 5., and its was PE 15 X, it was NOT a 'growth' stock --- yet, several years later, with the stock at $ 30., and its PE at 35 X, only then, it somehow becomes a 'growth stock' ? Dig ? See, this is part of all the BS surrounding all things 'fundamental', from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v. When a stock is depressed they hate it, and see no growth....Then, after it is way up, then it later somehow becomes a growth stock ? Gee, think about this: wasn't it more of a 'growth' stock, when/if bought/seen near its low, when they HAD no "fundamental growth' ? Since that's from where it had its highest % growth in stock price, yes ? Of course, fundamentalists will give you that junk about earnings, but one does not trade a company's earnings, one trades its stock....two different things, as I have taught you. Get it ? good. P.S. He also showed chart of our "ATX", which he also sees as a potential L.T. bottom....right on, F.B.
e) Brief Lesson: and, a nice, confirming PSYCLE-logical comment, made by an often correct money mgr., the famous Ed Thorp, in Esquire Mag. June article: commenting on how, a gambler/investor might grind out winnings over a long period, on one game/stock, then lose it all quickly in another, immediately thereafter, said, "I call it compartmentalized rationalism....one can be highly rational in one subject matter, and a complete wild man in another." EXACTLY as I teach ! Way to go, Ed. This is one key to our trading success....As I have always said, one's talents, abilities, beliefs, habits, in other areas of one's life's endeavors, does NOT automatically translate similarly, into the same experience, good or bad, in investing/trading ! i.e., just because one is great in, say, R.E., does not guarantee success in stocks....just because one is successfully super-agressive or meek in career or social matters, does not guarantee success in trading....dig ? That's one reason why my "PSYCLE sm" has tended to work so well, so often, in most all market conditions, over long periods....Because it is based on patterns which supercede all attempts to question or manipulate or scenarioize them...."PSYCLE sm" patterns are based on Physics, and Human Nature, period, two items of much more power and predictability and reliability, than any other "man-created potential factors". People keep trying to "control/change" things, when, in trading/investing, perhaps they should try to just "do what should be done".... Re-read my "Psychology" and "Scenarios" booklets, and today's brief "lesson" sec. (8) below....
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
1/2 pos. puts NTBK (65- to 41+) for VQ 175% G....1/2 pos. calls DGN (10+ to 15) for Q 133% gain....bal. stk.on.mgn. SYC (12+ to 20) for 111% G....bal. puts ANF (98- to 81+) for VQ 125% G....puts NZT (42- to 35++) for VQ 75% G....1/2 pos. puts TIF (87 to 79) for VQ 55% G....bal. puts OTEX (39- to 31+) for VQ 100% G.... bal. stk.on.mgn. SYBS (6- to 9+) for 111% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. AFCI. (7- to 10+) for 100% G.... stock AZC (0.57 to 1.06) for L.T. 75% G....1/2 pos. stock MHR (2++ to 4+) for 50% G....bal. stock CDV (3 to 4++) for 50% G....1/2 pos. stock DHC (3.06 to 5++) for 55% G...."the CRB index" (183 to 193 to 188+) for % Gain....
and/but, longs, HM, and, puts, HTN (47 to 43 to 47+), TVGIA, KSWS, PHCC, DRQ, PE, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....yikes....too many QSL's in puts recently....inexplicable....but, again, of course, I'll bet almost none of my subscribers actually had any of those as Puts lately in reality. Or bought any of the many other Puts I gave herein, which ARE falling....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy any Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their
patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just
buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with
less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent,
for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions"
have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones)
1/2 pos. NTN @ 3/4, SCIO @ 3 11/16, TXM @ 4 13/16,
"Repeats": (some new) AAM @ 1 9/16, ADGO @ 3 11/16, AIMM @ 1 15/16, AOI. @ 2 1/2, BAL @ 2 1/8, BEZ @ 19+, BGO @ 5/8, BMG @ 2 11/16, CAU @ 0.20, CBJ @ 3 11/16, CCH @ 0.28, DAY, ECO @ 1 5/8, FOTO @ 3.06, GRERF @ 0.28, GSR @ 11/16, IOM @ 4 13/16, ISSI. @ 2 9/16, KRY @ 5/8, NGX @ 0.53, NOV @ 1 3/4, SEV @ 4-, SVM @ 18.06, VGZ @ 0.175, ZAP @ 8+....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds ...."buy (only) low", right ? but not really that great a list, as I intimated recently, and, list is still not long, which is why I have not had a 'favorites" list lately ! what has that told you about "the market" ?
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein,
countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT
"just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some
stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes
over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at
times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up
those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for
you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already
moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many
subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and
there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching"
NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly:
the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, none, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list,
before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms
....we want only the EVB's, or bases, which set up properly....for one thing, we
MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first, and/or
then more fully formed "bases", yes ?
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL. LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) AMFM @ 57, ASD @ 46, ATF @ 195, BSX @ 43+, CCB @ 56, CTXS @ 49, FDC @ 45, FDO @ 24+, FON @ 110+, GEOC @ 58+, GMST @ 60, JEC @ 42+, LMG/A @ 74-, MEDI. @ 59+, MTP @ 82-, NXTL @ 38+, SAPE @ 76-, SFE @ 96-, XLNX @ 51-,
("Repeats") note revisiting some recent names again: BKB @ 50-, CPWM @ 36-, CSCO @ 117-, CSN @ 23+, DISH @ 120-, EBAY @ 195, FM @ 27+, GLK @ 49+, IIN @ 40-, IVX @ 14-, PSUN @ 39-, PVT @ 42+, QWST @ 92++, RYAAY @ 48-, SBA @ 26+, SCAI. @ 83-, TGNT @ 59+, TSG @ 62+, VCI. @ 38, WON @ 36-....
note: you , again, had MULTIPLE opportunities to buy these Puts, right at suggested prices, in recent weeks....no excuses....check to see which of these stocks remain near their highs, still puttable there....as some are already down ....many bounced back up towards puttable prices 2-3-4-times, over time....
and/but, took, AMCC, MACR, STT, IPI., P., Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....any new highs = off the puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR benefit....
IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web
site, a stock might break its extended S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed
EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy, or
put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still Added, as above....So I
am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying
any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and
therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted....this takes
just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues
which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then
incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the process is Your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", CHRZ, UFD/A, BLD, BDR, ATX, VCR, TCA, AHE, TSK, HS, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, AMAT, CKFR, EFII., EXDS, LLTC, MFNX, FITB, MCLD, TROW, BEL, XRX, NEO, LUV, MTP, JPM, KSU, PBI., SYK, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock here was specifically given herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
AZC 1 1/8 up 1/2 (S), GLDR 1 3/8 up 3/8, NSD 6 3/8 up 2 1/8 (sos), BLM 3 up 3/4, BAL 2 5/8 up 1/2, TXM 6 up 1 3/8, BKI. 17 up 2 1/2, SFSK 13 1/2 up 2, RTC 5 3/8 up 3/4, TBP 7 1/8 up 1, CDV 4 7/8 up 5/8 (S), PETM 10 up 1, WIX 5 1/4 up 1/2, SVM 18 7/8 up 7/8, MTSI. 15 5/8, ALL 39 7/8, PSSI. 12 1/8, LFG 30, LDW 7 3/4, SVRN 14 1/4, UFC 22 1/2, NSP 26, NCE 40 1/4, CPU 7 5/8, TE 23 3/8, AAC 7 3/8, ATX 6 5/8, COE 6 5/8, WH 18 5/8, up/further, just since last time here....
and, MMWW 24-, ANDW 16, ASDV 15+, PTEK 18, PAM 11+, NSM 22, CS 15+, FTR 16 1/2, PETC 15, WORK 14, CIEN 30, CDL 5 1/4, LUB 18+, REV 30+, HPK 14 1/2, NOC 74, BOY, ARG 12+, VNT 26+, NRL, OLS, higher still, all which I gave you near lows, herein....and, MMWW, TBP, DGN, SAP, hit their 200 DMA, and, WH, approaching its 200 DMA....
not too shabby, considering recent market action....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....always view the One-year Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and/or bounces off pullbacks: SEV 4 3/8 up 5/8, PFC, SUB, UFC, NPRO, HLX, ABH, DSL, CHB, TAROF, REL, BXH, PRD, ASPT, HIV, GDC, SWW, PPW, EGR, SOC, BBA, Golds, DRFNY, KMAG, SXTN, CBJ, SSN, FCN, HEC, MSN, PLL, SUB, ADGO, UQM, KNE, AOI., FRTE, NPSI., SGU, ESC, RTC, NSD, APFC, TXB, CCH, BS....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) AIMM 2 1/2 up 1/2, BGP 17 3/8 up 1 1/2, EEX 7 3/8, AAM, BMG, ISSI., ADGO, SSC, BBA, NPRO, RJF, UQM, LWN, OMM, TXB, PLL, AOI., TPS, SOC, FCN, ABH, APFC, RYO, TPS, CAU, MWY, MSN, KNE, FLM, Golds.
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
a bunch more for you: XCIT -29, SFE -18, COF -19, VISX -15, SONE -14, EGRP -13 (presplit), DCLK -11, SCH -11, DCLK -9, EBAY -8, DISH -8 1/2, SAPE -8, CSCO -8, LVLT -7, VRIO -8, GMST -7, AXP -7, BVSN -6, NITE -5 1/2, RCNC -5 1/2, TGNT -5, QWST -5, BAC -5, CMB -4 1/2, VRTY -4 1/4, LEVL -4, QWST -4, FULL -4, +1, XLNX -4 1/2, AMFM -4, PCLE -4, GEOC -4, BID -4, BKB -3 1/4, COST -3, NTBK -3, NXTL -3, INSS +1, -4, MMC -4 1/2, MEDI. -3, IDTC -4, EXPD -3, AGN -3, BSX -3, LMG/A -3, CCB -3, C. -3 1/2,
(cont'd.) CPWM -2 1/2, TIF -2 1/2, GLW -2 1/2, CTXS -2, GMST -2, FDO -1 5/8, MTP -1 1/2, TBL -1 1/2, YNR -2 1/4, GBLX +2, -3 1/2, RYAAY -1 1/4, PAYX -2, FITB -1, FLT -1 1/4, FON -1, PTZ, MCD -1, MDS, CBS -1, NZT (S), MBK, DHR -1, PVT, VCI., down/further, just since last time here....
Also, see, BEBE, INTU, VRIO, ELNK, AFS, fell to/approached their 200 DMA, and, OTEX, PCLE, BID, COF, GBLX, NTBK, NETG, DHR, COF, NDB, fell to/approached their 50 DMA....and, see, how, CMGI. 210, RFMD, TER, ETEC, EFAX, GNET 112, MSPG 78, TAGS 30, TFSM 36, SEPR 65, IVIL, UBID, XMCM, ARMHY, PFE, VERT, down further....and, just FYI: DELL, and INTC, have hot their initial MA's suport....also, WTSLA, 40 to 47 QSL, fell to 33 last week anyway....as did TVGIA....watch those Moving Averages below !
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On next Weakness,
towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously long Puts right
near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned,
for Your Benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little
time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....
let them do their thing.
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow):
again, we need to see many stocks break below recent lows/necklines, and, so
far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)"
sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after
"bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not
break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each
stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see"
previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn
patterns from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot" of stocks to review here, especially in the next two
sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times, right ?
View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT "chase
up".... only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their lows,
with stops for protection.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
Prec.Metals (GSR, NGX, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DRFNY, DAY, AZC, BGO, BMG, all
real cheapies, riskier, some may need more work/time)
Energy and Oil Svc. (MHR, SEV, KEG, etc., near their recent lows Only, and, more stocks, as below, on bigger pullbacks, ahead)
Biotech/Health/Medical (AOI., SHG), note, not as much here....
Foods (ZAP, OJ, OPTS, UFD.A, VBAC, WH, UFC, CPB)
R.E.I.T./Finance/Healthcare, potential high-yield-plus (HRP, PRT, AHE, NHI., ARM, CEI., HCR, TCO)....that this section had grown, said something about "interest-sensitive" I.G.'s, yes ?
Insur./Financial: (LFG, SVRN, ALL, ORI., DSL) (SPC, SAFC, HCC, are already up)
and, the "data/storage" stocks, ONLY after/on a bigger pullback....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, ASF, CYB, HIV, HS, MXTR, NEM, NWK, SUN, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) AAM, ABH, ADGO, AIMM, ATV, BAL, BEZ, BGP, BKI., BLM, BYX, CBJ, CCC, CELL, CPB, CPU, CWC, DHC, DRFNY, EGR, FLM, FNL, GDC, GLDR, GRERF, GHV, HDG, HEC, HNV, IO., IOM, JOB, KEG, KMAG, LWN, MIDI., MSN, NTN, PAH, PFC, PSFT, PRD, QNTM, RDRT, RTC, SAMC, SCY, SGU, SHOW, SSN, SWW, TCO, TIE, TMD, TTRIF, TWA, UDG, WGA, ZAP, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers ....still, not that great a list, in the main....which should tell you something about "the marketplace".
New, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: added, GBR, ESL, AEP, HOC, PLC, HA, CQB, VCR, TCA, BLD, XCL, TXM, WEL, ATX, IDC, PER, TSK, RGA.A, VTR, CGI., MPN, to, AFCI., IHS, ONX, ONPT, DATM, GISH, PBY, NOW, QSII., TGX, SVM, "Foods", ABTX, MWHS, CBRL, LDW, ISSI., as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, this is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They only
become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if they decline
towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over
time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns
? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Health, Medical: VISX, GNE, IVX, UHS, UNM, GLW, AGN, QLTI., BSX, etc.
Internet-oriented: most all, but givens are already down, though....
Telecom/Commun.: QWST, LEVL, FON, VOD, TGNT, DISH, CBS, LVLT, AMFM, etc.
Financial: BKB, COF, BBT, MMC, FITB, PAYX, CCB, PVT, SCH, EQ, AFL, FDC, etc.
Retail: TIF, VCI., LE, CLE, CPWM, PSUN, TBL, etc.
Cap. Goods/Machy./Cyclicals: CUM, IR, PBI., FULL, GLK, ASD, JEC, etc.
(other "techs/computer/software/semis/media, etc." , Puttables, are in two lists just below,
**** new ones: added, ASND, ASML, AT, BCC, BCE, CKFR, CL, DELL, EFII., EXDS, FDC, FDO, GEOC, JEC, JPM, KSU, LMG/A, MCLD, MFNX, MICC, NOVL, PCS, SBUX, SDLI., SLR, TDS, TROW, TWX, UIHIA, USM, VRTS, WMB, to, ABDR, ALTR, AMFM, ASD, ATHM, BLDP, BSX, CTXS, DHR, EL, EXPD, LLTC, LU, MEDI., OSSI., PTZ, RCL, RCNC, SAPE, SFE, VCI., VRTY, XLNX, XRX, and, almost all "Webs" securities (on the AMEX), to,
("repeats") ADVP, ARMHY, AWRE, CPWM, DRQ, ECL, ERTS, FDS, FS, GMST, HRZ, IIN, INSUA, ISCA, LEVL, MTNT, NDN, OK, ORBK, PL, RFMD, RNWK, WAT, WCOM, WON, YUM, YNR.
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: adding, Papers, Railroads, to, Machy./Cap. Goods, Energies, Auto, Online Broker/Banking, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Insurance/Finance/Banking (though some Banks are iffy, and some Insur. are also longs), Entertainment, Retial, Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and all Tele.-Commun., some Airlines, near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns ....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks, as some tops broaden....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: Some unenlightened people keep asking me, "what specific news or fundamental event/items, would 'cause' the drop expected into July ?" True "PSYCLE sm" students know, we never "scenarioize", nor care, about such things....to us, that way of thought is wasted brain activity...."the 95 %" and all the supposed 'experts', painted stupid negative scenarios about Russia, Asia, Energy prices, last Spring/Summer, and, as usual, they were wrong....Re-read my "Scenarios" booklet ! Last, remember, any "news", even when/if true, most always comes out, only AFTER the prices have already moved, anyway, right ?
Concentrate instead, on what IS, and the patterns that ARE --- not "what could be, if certain things happen certain hypothetical, juxtapositional ways"....If you are not actually LOOKING at the charts of at least stocks in sec. (3), and learning the special PATTERNS given you, you will not achieve what you could/should from trading/investing (unless you just get lucky, which is always nice, of course). You must make/take the time to do this ....Learn my stuff now, and you will save tons of time, for years to come, yes ?
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from 12/7/98 NL, through
the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any
time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take this
time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....