1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) as expected, even with 'the economy being weak, which would normally be good for Bonds", the June T-bond fell towards 99....remember, it has support around 98, as i have been near-perfect on thtrading the Bond for a year now, herein, yes ? ....2) similarly, a guy Todd Salamons, whom I don't know, did share a pretty decent "June Gold sells off" chart, showing decent resistance, as I foresaw herein, from around $ 293 to $ 267, already, S.T., but also showed pot. support not too much lower, and possibility of higher breakout down the road....the support/resistance line at $ 275 extended back, he said, to Oct./Nov. 2000, March 2001, Dec. 2000, and was a 50 % retracement level between 4/2 low $ 255.8, and May 21 high of $ 293.5....
3) last Thu., a B. Schaefer desciple published a chart of the 'S & P 600 small cap index' (IJR), showing - get this - a breakout/up, drawn from 1998-99 levels....exactly as I have been intimating herein - that our general rally would broaden from April, and eventually encompass truly depressed issues, vs. the already-up ones....after pb's, this also looks higher.... 4) and, in a rare display in Daily Graphs, the "Internet- E-commerce" group looks pretty constructive.... 5) note, I added more Financial, bank/brokerage/$ mgmt., Energies as Puttables in sec. (3) and (7) below....I remain the only guy around thinking this, especially Banks.... 6) and I continue to find more busted Telecoms, including Foreign ones, long-side....
7) and, within the Energy area I still mostly dislike, another guy on CNBC, Tue. 8 am, is, as usual in the "PSYCLE sm" pattern, just beginning to like a stock like our CPST, late/high, as usual, saying, "it has some catching up to do vs. others up higher in its group" (like, HPOW, FCEL, etc., which, of course, I was first to give out herein from lows, but I digress), but all but PWER, which NO one else out there mentiones (but will, only after it, too, rises a bunch, right ?), are overbought now, dig ? ....8) I continue to like many depressed Telecom-related issues, foreign and domestic and fiber-optic, etc. - been right on a bunch, for you, herein, and wrong on a very few, so far, but 'fundamentals' will not go away on them, and we will catch several again soon....the analysts who said they had no risk at parabolic tops, now disregard them, as the pattern rarely changes....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) ....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) perfect "PSYCLE sm" signal: on CNBC, Fri., 11:35, a guy finally went super-bullish on TVLY, an obviously-way-too-late stocks, up from "PSYCLE sm" base near $ 10, see it ? the pattern rarely changes....ditto with WMI, here, on CNBC, another I was first to give out herein from base lows.... 2) I laughed a bit when I saw LU, poss. getting takeover by ALA, falling, right from where we sold it, herein, after liking it at lows while others hated it from lows, yes ? regardless, will watch for pot. double-bottom ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) I keep noticing, that, every day, B., SChaeffer just highlights a new-all-time-high-way-up stoc....and never any stock at its lows....also, Louis Navallier, Fri., loves BA only now, calling his article, "soaring forever", or something like that....next....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ?
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
even more Gains over + 100 %: all stk.on.mgn. OPTV (8++ to 16) for Q 175% Gain....all calls KFY (16 to 23++) for VVQ 175% Gain....
and/but, longs, FON, TRLY ?, and, puts, VAR, WSC ?, TSO ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. STXN @ 6+, 1/2 pos. TNE @ 15, 1/2 pos. VOD @ 26+,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AWE @ 17, CDX @ 16, CTL @ 27+ GLW soon, HNV @ 0.26, IBIS @ 15, ITCD @ 5+, KEYN @ 11 ?, LVLT @ 12++, NTT @ 31, STG @ 0.56, PNK @ 9+ eh, TEO @ 14+, TRLY ?, 1/3 pos. VRTA @ 11-, ZMBA @ 1 3/8 ...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, none, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. BKNG @ 20++, 1/2 pos. ONE @ 39-, 1/2 pos. NCR @ 49, 1/2 pos. SNA @ 29++, MNI. @ 43-, RGBK @ 31+, ASBC @ 35-, 1/2 pos. HNCS @ , 1/2 pos. WMI. @ 28-, 1/2 pos. ROK @ 46++ ?, the DJ. Util. Avg. @ 400,
ASFC @ 58, CINF @ 41+, EXPD @ 64++, 1/2 pos. GENZ @ 108++, MOND @ 50+, MRCY @ 54-, 1/2 pos. TYC @ 58++, WWY @ 49-, ZQK @ 28, FO @ 34+, JHF @ 38+, THC @ 45+,
"Repeats": CHG @ 44++, CIN @ 35+, BWS @ 20+, CHD @ 25, CNT @ 47+, LHP @ 46+, RSLN @ 27, WSC @ 313....
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, none, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", TLK, GENE, MAXY, INKT, METHA, FIBR, AUGT, PRGS, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CEG, FRE, FNM, MND, MER, WR, NYT, CPN, BR, OLOG, BBOX, RTEC, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs.... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern, more:
wow, what a continuing great period for us....still many more Long Gains for you:
DTHK 8.88 up 0.44, KFY 23.94 (S), BID 20.1, IMDC 23.45, CTL 28.45, WGRD 7.11, higher since last NL here....while, DIGX 19-, MXBIF 8 3/4, ABSC 28, UFI. 8 1/2, PBY 9 3/4, rose even higher still, and, TV, PPE, SRT, TDY, IDT, KFY, IT, ENZ, KOPN, INCY, PR, approach/hit their 200 DMA....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
as expected, most all Techs pulling back a bit (giving you ample opp. to buy more near lows !), including, FNV 2.75 up 0.85, then 2.4, HPC 14.22 up, POP, RCG, BKI, HNV (B), VRA, GSPN, PRIA, COMS, UTHR, NTOP, MRD, VRTA, REMC, LTD, CMNT, BOW, GTW, IBIS 15, SUNW 18++, STTX, POM, VGZ....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) KANA, STG, LUX, HPC, BOW, FON, SRM, KEYN, TRLY....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
MNI. -3 1/2, HNCS -3, NCR -2 1/2, MRCY -2, ASFC -1, the DJ. Util. Avg. -11, RSLN, GSB, SOTR, lower, some further, since last NL here...while, HP, MMC, MAY, SRNA, fell to/below their 200 DMA....and, was MMM a 'fobo' ?
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, most Chem., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Papers, Apparel, etc.
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, note I took some off list already),
INSN, CLRN, CTL, NTT, MCLD, CLRS, AETH, BRIO, LBRT, MUSE, REMC, TBH, STXN, TERN, VASC, WFII, FAF, GDT ?, UIS ?, to, ALXN, MC, TVX, KEYN, AUGT, DT, NLI, BSX, APW, KPN, DRTE, CCUR, IBIS, CNXT, CMRC, IMDC, ORCL, WMUX, PCLE, VOD, JRC, POM, ALN, CDX, CDO ?, GL, PNK, BID, DSS, WGRD, ATHM, MONI, GSLI, XTND, CMNT, LUX, ADTK, AWE ny, VRTA ?, GLW, ARBA, SCMR, GILTF, ITCD, MFNX, NMSS, LVLT, PR, MSLV, TRLY ?, MRD, IBI, LTD, ADPT, KFY, AVX, NTOP, RCG, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades ....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, BKNG, HNCS, RGBK, RTEC, FRE, ONE, NEU, WMI. ?, PEG, ROK, SYK, MNI, SNA, PKS, TYC, CEG, BRKS, the DJ. Util. Avg., to, CINF, MOND, FHCC, BSTE, ASFC, MRCY, AHG, FO, RE, JHF, LLL, LIZ, RMD, TDS, TGT, TS, ZQK, SYK, to, GENZ, MSCC, RSLN, LEN, FMBI, JNJ, MSCC, GSB, LEH, EDS, MEE, VZ, BCS, THC, TXU ?, CNI, STR ?, PL, WTM ?, ITT ?, CIN, DVA, ESRX, CHG, HCA, ORI, WSC ?, PHCC, ITG, BSYS, HSIC, ASBC, LNCR, IVGN, CNT, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Loans, Disc. Chains, S.E. Banks, HMO's/health care, food/bev., Aero./Def., Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services, Commercial Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Homes-related/bldg., Media, Shoes/Apparel, Railroads, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES