Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, ended formally, back in early April 2000, with issue # 207+, a while ago....(so/but this NL is Not really being actually published formally, publically, any more, and has not been, for quite a while now ....I just wanted a place to keep track of what I would have said and done and felt, since I was forced undeservedly to stop my NL, months ago....this is ONLY for my own edification and proof of the value of my output and concepts to others), and anyone reading this has NOT gotten it from me....
dated: 9:00 am, PST, Tuesday, May 29, 2001


"2001: a Trading Odessey"

or, "The Patterns Rarely Change"

Important Note: this serious, very valuable "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, due to the too-often at least semi-gestapo, uncaring, ridiculous, illogical, NASD/SEC rules, and the uncaring, inconsiderate, and thoughtless nature of most all brokerage firms....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, here, twice each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance, very-long-term track record, and to offer further significant, in-advance, in-writing, 'proof' of the value and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

When I first saw Sundays's new chartbooks, I wrote "uh-oh ?" at the top, S.T., dig ? the S & P did indeed pb from its 200 DMA S.T. resistance, and, was the recent rise in the 'unweighted NYSE index' a "fobo" ? Of course, I have been giving out plenty of mostly-working Puttables regardless in I.G.'s the street hated at their lows and loved only recently, after big rises, as usual....while plenty of busted Techs remain buyable, though fewer than in April, right ?

Shockingly, since I had heard NO one out there mentioning this, a guy who follows IPO's and Secondaries offerings, said, on CNBC, Tue. 8:15 am, that May's total new stock chares issuances have been VERY high on a historical basis, and he said it even rivals last March 2000's level, after which, he said, normally portends pullbacks in many extended stocks....just something to consider, S.T. anyway....Obviously, we are surprised at the volume, but encouraged that no one picked up on this, as usual, in normal "PSYCLE sm" behavior....so, the whole market has gotten a bit miffy and messy all of a sudden, but small losses and larger gains remain the order of the day, as is exploiting both side simultaneously, in I.G. rotation, where possible....it shouyld be interesting to see how 'not wanting to buy long' "the 95 %" will be, near the next decent bottom for everything....

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) as expected, even with 'the economy being weak, which would normally be good for Bonds", the June T-bond fell towards 99....remember, it has support around 98, as i have been near-perfect on thtrading the Bond for a year now, herein, yes ? ....2) similarly, a guy Todd Salamons, whom I don't know, did share a pretty decent "June Gold sells off" chart, showing decent resistance, as I foresaw herein, from around $ 293 to $ 267, already, S.T., but also showed pot. support not too much lower, and possibility of higher breakout down the road....the support/resistance line at $ 275 extended back, he said, to Oct./Nov. 2000, March 2001, Dec. 2000, and was a 50 % retracement level between 4/2 low $ 255.8, and May 21 high of $ 293.5....

3) last Thu., a B. Schaefer desciple published a chart of the 'S & P 600 small cap index' (IJR), showing - get this - a breakout/up, drawn from 1998-99 levels....exactly as I have been intimating herein - that our general rally would broaden from April, and eventually encompass truly depressed issues, vs. the already-up ones....after pb's, this also looks higher.... 4) and, in a rare display in Daily Graphs, the "Internet- E-commerce" group looks pretty constructive.... 5) note, I added more Financial, bank/brokerage/$ mgmt., Energies as Puttables in sec. (3) and (7) below....I remain the only guy around thinking this, especially Banks.... 6) and I continue to find more busted Telecoms, including Foreign ones, long-side....

7) and, within the Energy area I still mostly dislike, another guy on CNBC, Tue. 8 am, is, as usual in the "PSYCLE sm" pattern, just beginning to like a stock like our CPST, late/high, as usual, saying, "it has some catching up to do vs. others up higher in its group" (like, HPOW, FCEL, etc., which, of course, I was first to give out herein from lows, but I digress), but all but PWER, which NO one else out there mentiones (but will, only after it, too, rises a bunch, right ?), are overbought now, dig ? ....8) I continue to like many depressed Telecom-related issues, foreign and domestic and fiber-optic, etc. - been right on a bunch, for you, herein, and wrong on a very few, so far, but 'fundamentals' will not go away on them, and we will catch several again soon....the analysts who said they had no risk at parabolic tops, now disregard them, as the pattern rarely changes....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) ....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) perfect "PSYCLE sm" signal: on CNBC, Fri., 11:35, a guy finally went super-bullish on TVLY, an obviously-way-too-late stocks, up from "PSYCLE sm" base near $ 10, see it ? the pattern rarely changes....ditto with WMI, here, on CNBC, another I was first to give out herein from base lows.... 2) I laughed a bit when I saw LU, poss. getting takeover by ALA, falling, right from where we sold it, herein, after liking it at lows while others hated it from lows, yes ? regardless, will watch for pot. double-bottom ?

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) I keep noticing, that, every day, B., SChaeffer just highlights a new-all-time-high-way-up stoc....and never any stock at its lows....also, Louis Navallier, Fri., loves BA only now, calling his article, "soaring forever", or something like that....next....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ?

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....

"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:


even more Gains over + 100 %: all stk.on.mgn. OPTV (8++ to 16) for Q 175% Gain....all calls KFY (16 to 23++) for VVQ 175% Gain....

and/but, longs, FON, TRLY ?, and, puts, VAR, WSC ?, TSO ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:

(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs):
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:

1/2 pos. STXN @ 6+, 1/2 pos. TNE @ 15, 1/2 pos. VOD @ 26+,

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AWE @ 17, CDX @ 16, CTL @ 27+ GLW soon, HNV @ 0.26, IBIS @ 15, ITCD @ 5+, KEYN @ 11 ?, LVLT @ 12++, NTT @ 31, STG @ 0.56, PNK @ 9+ eh, TEO @ 14+, TRLY ?, 1/3 pos. VRTA @ 11-, ZMBA @ 1 3/8 ...."buy (only) low", right ?

** Important: took, none, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops:
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. BKNG @ 20++, 1/2 pos. ONE @ 39-, 1/2 pos. NCR @ 49, 1/2 pos. SNA @ 29++, MNI. @ 43-, RGBK @ 31+, ASBC @ 35-, 1/2 pos. HNCS @ , 1/2 pos. WMI. @ 28-, 1/2 pos. ROK @ 46++ ?, the DJ. Util. Avg. @ 400,
ASFC @ 58, CINF @ 41+, EXPD @ 64++, 1/2 pos. GENZ @ 108++, MOND @ 50+, MRCY @ 54-, 1/2 pos. TYC @ 58++, WWY @ 49-, ZQK @ 28, FO @ 34+, JHF @ 38+, THC @ 45+,

"Repeats": CHG @ 44++, CIN @ 35+, BWS @ 20+, CHD @ 25, CNT @ 47+, LHP @ 46+, RSLN @ 27, WSC @ 313....

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, none, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", TLK, GENE, MAXY, INKT, METHA, FIBR, AUGT, PRGS, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CEG, FRE, FNM, MND, MER, WR, NYT, CPN, BR, OLOG, BBOX, RTEC, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs.... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):

**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).



acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn the pattern, more:
wow, what a continuing great period for us....still many more Long Gains for you:
DTHK 8.88 up 0.44, KFY 23.94 (S), BID 20.1, IMDC 23.45, CTL 28.45, WGRD 7.11, higher since last NL here....while, DIGX 19-, MXBIF 8 3/4, ABSC 28, UFI. 8 1/2, PBY 9 3/4, rose even higher still, and, TV, PPE, SRT, TDY, IDT, KFY, IT, ENZ, KOPN, INCY, PR, approach/hit their 200 DMA....

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and more bounces after pullbacks:
as expected, most all Techs pulling back a bit (giving you ample opp. to buy more near lows !), including, FNV 2.75 up 0.85, then 2.4, HPC 14.22 up, POP, RCG, BKI, HNV (B), VRA, GSPN, PRIA, COMS, UTHR, NTOP, MRD, VRTA, REMC, LTD, CMNT, BOW, GTW, IBIS 15, SUNW 18++, STTX, POM, VGZ....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....


and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:


(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) KANA, STG, LUX, HPC, BOW, FON, SRM, KEYN, TRLY....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:

(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, stick around:

Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out to learn:
MNI. -3 1/2, HNCS -3, NCR -2 1/2, MRCY -2, ASFC -1, the DJ. Util. Avg. -11, RSLN, GSB, SOTR, lower, some further, since last NL here...while, HP, MMC, MAY, SRNA, fell to/below their 200 DMA....and, was MMM a 'fobo' ?

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):

: WSC -3, LNCR, CNT, ORI, KMI, JNJ, APC, AHG, APA, EDS, RSLN, SLM, EAT, CIN, SOTR....this ends our 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):


depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, most Chem., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Papers, Apparel, etc.
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):

We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, note I took some off list already),
INSN, CLRN, CTL, NTT, MCLD, CLRS, AETH, BRIO, LBRT, MUSE, REMC, TBH, STXN, TERN, VASC, WFII, FAF, GDT ?, UIS ?, to, ALXN, MC, TVX, KEYN, AUGT, DT, NLI, BSX, APW, KPN, DRTE, CCUR, IBIS, CNXT, CMRC, IMDC, ORCL, WMUX, PCLE, VOD, JRC, POM, ALN, CDX, CDO ?, GL, PNK, BID, DSS, WGRD, ATHM, MONI, GSLI, XTND, CMNT, LUX, ADTK, AWE ny, VRTA ?, GLW, ARBA, SCMR, GILTF, ITCD, MFNX, NMSS, LVLT, PR, MSLV, TRLY ?, MRD, IBI, LTD, ADPT, KFY, AVX, NTOP, RCG, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades ....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, as all others have been Removed:

* add, BKNG, HNCS, RGBK, RTEC, FRE, ONE, NEU, WMI. ?, PEG, ROK, SYK, MNI, SNA, PKS, TYC, CEG, BRKS, the DJ. Util. Avg., to, CINF, MOND, FHCC, BSTE, ASFC, MRCY, AHG, FO, RE, JHF, LLL, LIZ, RMD, TDS, TGT, TS, ZQK, SYK, to, GENZ, MSCC, RSLN, LEN, FMBI, JNJ, MSCC, GSB, LEH, EDS, MEE, VZ, BCS, THC, TXU ?, CNI, STR ?, PL, WTM ?, ITT ?, CIN, DVA, ESRX, CHG, HCA, ORI, WSC ?, PHCC, ITG, BSYS, HSIC, ASBC, LNCR, IVGN, CNT, from recent past NL's....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Loans, Disc. Chains, S.E. Banks, HMO's/health care, food/bev., Aero./Def., Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services, Commercial Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Homes-related/bldg., Media, Shoes/Apparel, Railroads, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES