1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) note db in yield of TYX/TNX (sell long bonds), and 'sales' below , as the June 30-yr. t-bond rose to 117, exactly as only i predicted herein 4 U, right near a.t. high, enuf to lighten up in it as well, yes ? ....2) I read where, with USAir & UAL, bankruptcy, together, worth, in stocks, only $ 166 mm, one could buy the entire Airline ind. stks, AMR, DAL, LUV, NWAC, JBLU, RYAAY, SKYW, ALK, etc., for a total of only $ 19 B, tmv....gee, someone's gonna win from here in some of those stks, as usual, as the boo-birds get bearish too low, dig ? ....3) contrarily, Wed., the Asbestos stocks, GRA, MDR, USG, others, got 'good l.t. congressional help legislation news' - but, as I have taught U for decades, note this occurs only AFTER their stocks had already risen many hundreds of percent....as the sequentially-staged pattern repeats as usual....next....
4) as seemingly I alone expected from recent lows, again, herein, notice SOX semi. index up from 380 to 438 again recently, it's 'pot. b.o. level' wb 450 or so, watching 4 that, maybe ?, anyway, once again, PSYCLE traded opposite the overpaid analysts s.t., 2 your benefit....R U learning the pattern ? but it still may have trouble getting over recent pop-highs, may need one more pb 1st ? ....5) GLD recent low @ 415.5, may be it v.s.t. anyway, not a but, just a s.t. low.... 6) and, TNX yld dn to 3.992 %, and TYX dn to 4.332 %, neat....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Politicians,
your Govt., etc.:
1) just FYI, Greenspan's 'irrational exuberance' BS speech, occured in 12/96.... 2) yet another sign of R.E. top, is recent USA today story of how "R.E. Investment Clubs" have risen from only 44 in 2003, to over 177 now....wow, what does THAT tell U, "PSYCLE sm-wise" ?, learn the patterns !
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, data,
and/or stock price moves:
1) well, whadaya know, your govt. finally lowered their forward GDP forecasts....interestingly, Germany, Japan, France, amd G.B. have also lowered theirs, a few months ago, and, I say, China's growth slowing already, hmmmm....gee, as usual, could I be correct yet again, vs. the 95 % ? ....2) similarly even more, noting new 'buy GLW' rec's, only after a huge % rise off its EVB which I alone gave U herein a while ago, the idiot fundamentalists, only now, say, "GLW is one of the only ways to play the rapidly growing flat-panel TV area" - interesting, since, shouldnt all those overpaid analysts who all but live IN these companies have known this - many months ago ?, re-read my Booklets, learn the pattern !, next....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) TRA NL now likes DELL longside (only > big rise, as usual, dgms), and begins to recommend Tech. stks. (ditto), get it ?, late/high as usual....R U learning the pattern ? rarely changes....so this becomes another sell v.s.t. signal in rallied stocks, yes ? ....2) recent Hedge Fund/NL writer convention found: they generally HATE tech. stks., even near recent lows....Prechter, and Ian McAvity (! where has HE been all these years ?), and several other presnetrs, each dislikes Gold & Gold stks....interesting, since TRA/TDR still love3s them up here, go figure....sic....
e) more general, political, misreported, incorrect,
agendized, slanted, items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of
everything else out there:
1) TDR says that "Russia has quietly piled up $ 145 B in foreign exch. reserves, 2nd most of any country except the USA"....so ?, I wonder if this is true....they also showed vastly improving-since-1999 Russia having LESS 'debt as a % of GDP" yearly, neat....of course, they look at EVERYTHING as negative, anyway....and, while they fail as usual 2 C the imp. issue with that item, I have said for yrs. that Russia strengthening is a GOOD-for-USA thing, regardless.... 3) and, again, China said they will not revalue their currency....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much
better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of
other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential
emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains:
3 more Longs,
neat....
and,
0 more Puts:
as you have always done, please read them carefully and VIEW their charts
carefully, to learn patterns....note, "s.o.m.", means, 'stock bt. on margin"
(hypothetically)
a for Q % G....1/2 pos. s.o.m. HMY (6.11 to 7.60) for VVVQ % G....1/2 pos. calls KR (15+ to 17+) for VQ % G....all s.t. calls TYX 30-yr. t-bond (yld. dn from 4.9%- to 4.3 %+) for Q % G....and calls TNX, 10-yr. t-bond (yld. dn from 4.8 % to 4.0 %) for Q % G....
and/but, longs, LSCC (fo)bd ?, 1/2 pos. TQNT (fo)bd ?, bal. SEBL fobd ? soso, bal. RPMM bd ?, fo ?,
and, puts, , for
quick, mostly very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a
properly diversified L.T. portfolio ....are you learning the pattern ?
if not, why not ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not
on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
again, "just get real close" to
suggested prices:
1/3 CHINA @ 2.5- eh, 1/3 CIF @ 3 3/8 + div., 2007 bond CPN 8 3/4 % @ 65 ?, 1/3 CHRZ @ 2.70, 1/2 pos. bonds GM 10 % coupon, mature 2015, @ 73, 1/3 AGEN @ 6.6 eh, 1/3 AMCC @ 2.50+, 1/2 CVG @ 12+, 1/3 WIW @ 12.60 eh div., SKIL dsto @ 3, 1/3 KR @ 15 5/8, PSY @ 20 5/8 big div., 1/2 pos. ACCL @ 5+, 1/3 UMC non 3.18, C.AY.U @ 11 3/4 big div., 1/3 UIS @ 6+ (fo)bd ?, PRTR ?, 1/2 CGFW @ 5- fobd, ICOS jmi ?,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): STTS
fobd, cb, RPMM bd ?, 1/4 SINX @ 0.02- super spec, 1/3 SOHU again @ 0.175, wc, CLTK @ 0.75 fobd, SPRT @ 4.80 + ? eh....csb RMBS 19 % recons @ 90, w/RMBS @ 13+ firm, LSCC bd ? fo ?, SUNW obpbo, PMCS @ 7.5- ehs, and, ISIS @ 2.90-....
remember, near major market turns/bottoms, you have been taught many times,
to "stick around and give stocks a bit more leeway, as to 'fobd's', etc.,
continuing to stay in, diversify more, allow for more risk, etc.", yes ? hence
the questions about 'fobd's', and buys that say 'fobd', right ? but some normal,
usual, QSL's still occur and are accepted along the way with no emotion nor
incompleting trading my way, right ? you're welcome....
*** Important: took, CMLS bd, ECLG bd, DAL bd, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the
pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.".... we do
Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were
also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
1/3 TRC @ 53+, 1/3 ALEX @ 46+, 1/3 UTIL @ 364+, 1/3 CME @ 215 bwc, 1/2 OIH @ 93+ again ?, XOI @ 836+ again, AIV @ 39, STI. @ 74 fobo, EC @ 31-, RE @ 90-, to,
"Repeats":
TGT non ?, BKMU @ 12+, EWJ @ 11, MCO osas @ 43++, UB @ 63+,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, ,
and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list,
before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past
issues taken off, herein)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list
(although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their
charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit
....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just
missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", PRGX bd ?, CCUR, CMGI, SGI, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, , as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs (obviously, they were removed from sec. (7).... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns... again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., and/or strong(er):
also be sure to VIEW charts of all given winners lately from last few NL's, to
learn the patterns yet again:
several nice pops among given-from-lows
techs:
ISIS 4.00 up 1.20 neat, UIS 7.44 up 0.46, CGFW 6.69 up 0.38, SOHU 18.84 up 0.71, KR 17.03, HMY 7.76 sstoos, and, TQNT 3.42 bo ?, PLXS 13.84 bo, sos, bmsf, up/further since last NL here....
and, these are either pulling back, or
bouncing, after expected pb's already occuring/occured:
CMOS 8.17 up 1.62 nice, SPRT 5.29, 5.00, LSCC 4.30 pb, NYB 18.17 pb, AMCC 2.82 pb, ACCL 5.10 pb, 5.30, ISIS 3.42 pb, STTS 7.24 up, bmsbo, CHRZ csb, eh, UIS 7.17 pb, CVG 13.60 up, msf, UMC 3.78 vctbo, CGFW 6.34 pb, AGEN 6.52 pb, cb, eh, ....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must strengthen" or
else, yes ?)
DJIA 10560 stfobo ?, pb, SPY 12003 stfobo ?, pb, SEBL dn, soss ?, WIW 12.44 bd ?, non, csb, SPRT bopb, PMCS sos 8.58, 8.20, RPMM non, LENS sos, and, DSS stbd, LSCC, RMBS mss, WIW msa....SEHO 0.155, 0.220,
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
CME 214, 210-, ALEX 44 dn 1, TRC 53+, 51+, GLD 413.3, down/lower since last time here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
these must weaken anew:
CME 215+ up, UTIL 365 up, posas, 361, TGT, STI. 75 bo ?, AIV, RE 90 bp, 88, TRC, MCO 43 dn 1, UB 63+ bp, GLD 416+ up, are and/or up/dn, bouncing, when/and they should be falling more....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
*** in lieu
of IGR here, just do those individual stocks below, they tend to be
depessed....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added:
added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
note how many
previously-given 'fobd's' are being re-added !
'opbo', means 'on pullback
only', yes ?
I removed a bunch more....then added some fobd's and new ones,
as usual....as you have been taught, be patient and selective:
of course, from
here, most are ONLY on/after pb's, yes ?
but, now, 10/5, many are already
up, so only buying them near lows - but you knew that....
obviously, many have
already bounced, so oopbo for most, yes ?
added, SGI. spec, NOVL opb, ISIS ny ?, DBTC spec eh, PROX spec, CGFW fobd, ELY obpboas, to, PRTR, UNTD eh, CVG opbo l.t., ICOS fobd ? bd ?, THC, CMOS fobd ?, CLZR, IDNX opbo, MLNM dlt, NFLX, UIS lto, (fo)bd ?, KR ny, CGFW fobd, to, CPN l.t. db ?, PLXS obpbo, BWNG ?, UMC (fo)bd, SOHU opbo, SINX fobd, TXEO another super spec. ?, PCLE tln, STTS opbo, SKIL opbo, PKS ltp ?, RPMM bd ? fobd ?, LSCC bd ?, ADCT obpbo, SPRT fobd, EVC opbas, SEHO opb, IRSN non, CLTK fobd, SUNW ?, held....
also, 4/20+, am adding, KKD as pot. db, BE l.t. db ?, HLIT ovsold ?, AMCC
l.t. db ?, JDSU l.t. db ?, and, DAL db, around here, we shall C,
and, including, for pot. price rises, plus pot. high-dividends/interest while
you wait ?
added, CIF + 9.5 % div., 2007 bond CPN 8 3/4 % @ 65 ?, bonds GM 10 % coupon, mature 2015, @ 73.... WIW opb, NYB fobd,
to, PSY, PMCS 15 % recons, eh, opbo, DCS nah, ZF obpbo, EVC
obpbo, RMBS 19 % recons w/RMBS @ 14- db, to,
and, still been watching 2 cdn.
o & g. royalty trusts, C.AY.U, and C.NAE.U, (APF energy trust, & NAL o & g
trust), but both are already up around 11 and 13++ now, so too high ?, yielding
15 % each here anyway ?, eh, tln ?,
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
note: as always, because so many patterns have changed, be sure to view
each of these, B4 acting on any !, recent drops to s.t. support means only 'put'
these after rallies towards highs, right ?, so removed a bunch, with recent
drops....and may remove more, so chk. charts B4 considering:
note,
finally removed some stks which had, obviously, already worked big-time, or
broken out, belatedly....
and, by Mon. 4/21, too late to PUT many
already-given ones, which R already down, dig ?, see above....
added, TRC dt ?, TGT non ?, CME os, ALEX, UTIL, ACF oso, AIV, RE, STI, EC, and, extended Banks, Finls, Leisure, Gaming, Flour/Grain/food,oso, REITs, EWJ, UB, and most bonds on strength only, XMSR ?, SBUX ? (see above), BKMU bo ?....and, perhaps, the stock indexes oso again ahead ?
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order,
and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops:
added, Extended: (for I.G.'s, please see sec. (2) above, from
now on, , all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their
patterns highs.... this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas
section....
general note: as per my teachings, WITHIN some industry groups, there
may be bpth, extendeds, and depresseds, as recently, certainly normal....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES