1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
I also observe a growing number of traders Nationally, getting turned off, what with the predicted Internets correction, the S.T. tops among Cyclicals and Energy stocks, declines among Metals, and Interest Rates up a bit....Nevertheless, I am still giving you plenty more gainers, in both directions, recently....But you really must have been in at least "some" Puts, to have been properly positioned, recently, and still, into July....Instead of "punting", or getting negative emotionally, Act, by taking advantage of the I.G. rotation occuring....regardless, I added and consolidated more Puttables, into I.G.'s, in section (7) below for you, because that's what I see, that is exploitable here....
Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable,
staged, stocks, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into
each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....again, the "Most Actionable,
Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). The
"Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2). Longer lists,
and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7)....and all "follow-ups", are in
sections (4) and (5). Of course, if you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you may choose to save time by Ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage over time.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: (more "commodity" items today --- hey, it's just what is happening of note): 1)
our "Insurance" Longs stocks barely are popping....simultaneously, also note, some of our Puttable stocks, among Insur. and Banks, are falling....this illustrates chart-pattern power, how some stocks in an I.G. can be rising, while others fall ....re-read my "Ind. Group Rotation" booklet.... 2) several more B-firms, are lowering their price opinions on cash Gold....and CNBC adds their bashing, late as usual....of course, none are sharing their track record predicting future gold moves, and, of course, the Media never asks....one saying, "it's hard to make any case for higher Gold, with all the overhanging supply." But Silver still looks like a double-bottom....(but then, that same reporter immediately showed chart of "TIF" stock, with they, and Lehman Bros., falling in love with it here around $ 84+, as WE add its puts herein)....and, Gold "stocks" are still hanging in, aren't they ? ....3) note how, along with the "V.S.T. only" bottom I predicted for you in Internet stocks, "SEEK" stoppped falling at its previously-broken-above level/support, around $ 30., then bounced, see it ?
4) I heard a commodity expert point out, that, this will be the 13th consecutive year, with higher acreage planted, in Soybeans (meaning, increased potential supply, yes ?). And yet, all those "come-on-pitch-men", have been incorrectly super-bullish on Soybeans, for years now, yes ? Gosh, you'd think they would at least know basic 'fundamental' information like that, yes ? ....5) the CRB index again failed to breakout above its last 2 recent resistance levels, as suggested herein would happen....it now shows an intermediate-term triple-top within its depressed base.... 6) obviously, the T-bond yield rose to above 6.07 % ....again, this was specifically predicted herein months ago, when I was the only guy around, saying we would "not see T-bond below 4+ % for a long, long time" last summer....I figured back then, that the yield would rise, over time, I believe my word was "overshoot", to just over 6 %, just to confuse and scare everybody....the T-Bond itself, now around 116., would still have overhead resistance in the 119-120 area.... 7) in a similar manner as Copper, just as the latecomers "began" to love Coffee, it also has topped S.T. and will likely pull back decently for a while....and, cash Lumber, recently up, along with the "Paper" stocks (sometimes those two CAN be "linked") also looks like a S.T. top.... 8) we have a S.T. top now, in DJ. Util. avg., (hit that "measured move" upside target as suggested), and the DJ. Trans. avg. is trying to breakdown....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper comments from the
Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) L.A. Times, 6/6, a decently valuable article by Paul J. Lim, titled, "So what if the Fed Raises Interest Rates ?", pointed out, that, the 20 previous times the Fed has raised I.R.'s since 1917, the S & P has actually RISEN, on avg., nearly + 9 % within the following year....Surprising, huh....saying, "it's a very closely guarded secret....disaster expectations from economists, analysts, strategists, and gurus, have just not been the case." ....2) I usually don't care, but it does strike me negatively, that former surgeon general C.E. Koop just became very wealthy, via a new Internet IPO....you ? ....3) and, you know I hate economics/fundamentals "links", but, it would seem at least "some" recovery may be starting, in Japan, and Europe....hence, the "cover story" (re-read my "media" and "scenarios" booklets) for recent rise in I.R.'s ?
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.:
1) O.C. register, 6/6, according to the I.B.E.S., 7 stocks have short positions of over 47 % of their public float: BXM, DFC, DRS, FSA, HIBB, SSPE, WHX....their implication was a possible "short squeeze" for those....we shall see....just FYI.... 2) CNBC, Tue. 7th, 7:40 am, a Gruntal analyst said "we have already HAD the correction based on fears of higher I.R.'s....the economy looks great as far as the eye can see." ....3) Money Mag. recently said "the economy continues to provide near-ideal conditions for homebuilders." Yet building 'stocks' (different than the "companies", right ?) "are selling at a 50 % discount to the S & P 500, mnore tha double the traditional markdown." Gee, "if" such "fundamentals "were" of "D.A.F.P.P. value" (re-read my "scenarios" and "media" booklets), they wouldn't be --- unless, of course, the "market" knows future things, that the "economists/analysts" do not, yes ? ....4)
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) Arch Crawford (planetary cycles) on KWHY-tv, Tue. 8th, 7:30 am, expects T-bond rates to be over 7 % by end of Aug., and, a ".... 2) P.S. on "CKR" stock from last NL here: it was also just downgraded, after its recent big price drop, by Morgan Stanley DW, and, Bear, Stearns analysts.... 3) L.A. Times, 6/6, Joe Battapaglia, perma-bull, continues to love all the major Financial and Pharmaceutical stocks....even as they correct decently, with no stops.... 4) Ralph Bloch, CNBC, Tue. 7th, said, the "put/call ratio" has recently been way too high (too many put buyers, get it ?), so he is abandoning his steadily-less-bearish stance, even further....I like him, because he admits, as I do, when he is wrong/confused/unsure.... 5) Tom McLellan, of "oscillator" fame, Wed. 9th, 11:10 am, KWHY-tv, said, was top mid-may, and thier target "bottom dates", in the 7/9 to 7/16 area....
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
more nice Gains for you....read them carefully, and actually take the time to
VIEW some of these stocks' charts, to "see" the patterns that were: (note: I am
low-balling prices, and estimated % returns, here):
calls PPW (15+ to 18++) for Q 100% Gain....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. TAROF (5+ to 8+) for Q 75% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. VOO (6- to 8++) for VQ 75% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. DATM (7+ to 10+) for VVQ 75% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. CPU (6- to 7++) for Q 60% G....1/2 pos. puts TI. (108 to 98) for 50% G....bal. puts FDS (50 to 43) for VQ 66% G....1/2 pos. stock ISSI. (2 5/8 to 3 15/16) for 40% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. DSL (19- to 23+) for Q 44% G....css. BLDP (37 to 31+) for VVQ 25% Gain....bal. css. MTNT, for small G....
and/but, longs, ARM (12+ to 15+ to 12+), SCIO, ATX, TWA, HMA, BXH, ORI., BS, and, puts, RYAAY (48 to 42 to 48+), MCRL, ASML, SYK, for very quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....plus, again, I bet almost none of you actually "had" any Puts recently, even aamong all those big puts Gainers I gave you herein....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy any Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their
patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just
buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with
less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent,
for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions"
have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) 1/2 pos. AU @ 19-, HNV @ , RAD @ 23+, TW @ 18,
"Repeats": (some new) AAM @ 1 5/16, AFG @ 33+, AIMM @ 1 15/16, ALL @ 36, AND @ 6 15/16, ATV @ 1 3/8, BAL @ 2 1/8, BEZ @ 19+, BMG @ 2 7/16, BYX @ 3 9/16, CAU @ 0.20, CCH @ 0.28, DAY @ 0.08, FOTO @ 3 1/8, GRERF @ 0.28, GSR @ 11/16, HIV @ 2.06, IDC @ 4+, ISSI @ 2 5/8, JOB @ 4+, KEG @ 3.06, KMAG @ 3 11/16, KRY @ 5/8, LFG @ 28, NEM @ 17+, NGX @ 0.53, PAH @ 5-, PLC @ 3, RAL @ 26+, SUN @ 30 1/4, SVRN @ 12+, VGZ @ ....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds...."buy (only) low", right ? (but still not really that great a list, as I have been intimating recently, and, list is still not long, which is why I have not had a "favorites" list lately ! what has that told you about "the market" ?)
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein,
countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT
"just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some
stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes
over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at
times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up
those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....ditto, for our Puttables....this is
a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in
stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig
? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the
stocks herein, first....and there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more
thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational
needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly:
the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, , --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at
bottoms....we want only the EVB's, or bases, which set up properly....for one
thing, we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7",
first, and/or then more fully formed "bases", yes ?
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) EQP @ 47+, FOE @ 29++, IDPH @ 59+, KMT @ 30++, NIN @ 28,
"Repeats" (note, revisiting some recent names again): ABK @ 59, ARC @ 84+, ATF @ 198+, BCC @ 41++, BRCM @ 108+, CSCO @ 116, DRQ @ 25, EFII @ 50+, EQ @ 70, EQR @ 48-, GEOC @ 59+, LEA @ 52+, OSTE @ 39+, PCLE @ 26+, PMA @ 59-, QLTI. @ 51+, RCNC @ 48, TDS @ 67+, TIF @ 84+, USM @ 48++, WON @ 36....
and/but, took, WWCA, VOD, BCE, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....also, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR benefit....
IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web
site, a stock might break above its extended S.T. umbrella top, or below its
depressed EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit
their "buy, or put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still Added,
as above....So I am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you
consider buying any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is
still O.K., and therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have
aborted.... this takes just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from
buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns quickly after
publication of my NL's, then incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the
process is Your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", PSEM, AR, ASL, NCT, HUM, IHS, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, LZRC, MCLD, SWC, KSS, ZLC, PG, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs.... Every single stock here was specifically given herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
ISSI. 4 1/8 up 1 3/4, DATM 10 7/8 up 2 1/4 (sos), AND 8 1/4 up 1 3/8, KEG 3 1/2 up 1/2, ASPT 10 3/8 up 1 1/4, UQM 5 1/8 up 1/2, MGN 4 up 3/8, TBP 7 5/8 up 7/8, RAL 30 up 3 3/4, SOC 7 3/4 up 5/8, ALL 39 up 3 1/8, TAROF 8 1/4 up 5/8 (sos), PLL 21 1/8 up 1, RAD 24 3/8 up 1, AFG 34 1/4 up 1, ONSL 18 7/8, PETM 9 3/4, PTSI. 9 1/2, DSL 23 1/4 (S), FLE 26 1/4, BEZ 20 1/8, PPW 18 7/8 (S), SGU 16 1/2, UNO 8 3/4, BBA 6 7/8, PLL 22, FLM 12, still higher, since last time here....I also see our CIEN, from its EVB given a while ago here, broke out further to 34....and PPW approached its 200 DMA....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: ABH 2 7/8 up 3/8, DATM 9 3/4, SAMC 6 3/8 up 5/8, MWY 11 1/8 up 1, RJF 22 up 1 5/8, LFG 29 up 1 1/4, RIG 25 3/4 up 1 3/4, SVM 18 7/8, WTT 2 1/2, 2, 2 1/2, KNE 22 1/8, RDRT 7 1/8, 6 1/8, CPU, CPB -1, NPSI., ONSL, UFC, FCN, BBA, KMAG, BS, SUN, PRD, UFC, RJF, FLE, GSR, WDC, PFC, LKI., HLX, PAH, NOV, JOB, MTSI., NPRO, REL, SSN, LDW, BLM, HIV, OCN, GDC, SWW, SOC, Golds, DRFNY, SXTN, SSN, HEC, SGU, TPS, MSN, FRTE, ESC, RTC, WH, APFC, TXB, CCH....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....note growing list....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) SUB 43 1/4, 41 3/4, NPRO 1 5/8, BS, LFG, AFG, TXB, CBRL, SVRN, CPU, CCC, SEV, WIX, DAY, BGO, ECO, AIMM, BMG, AAM, SSC, SGU, OMM, SOC, PRD, FCN, ABH, APFC, RYO, TPS, CAU, MSN....mostly Golds and Insur. stocks.
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
JPM -4 1/2, TIF -3 3/8, IDPH -3, EQ -3, SBUX -2 5/8, KMT -2 3/4, BOL -2 1/2, EXPD -2 3/8, IIN -2 1/2, OSTE +1, -2, AFL -2, TROW -1 1/2, USM -1 1/2, FOE -1 3/8, DRQ -1 3/8, ARC -1, ABK -1, PMA -1, EQR -1, LEA -1 1/2, +1 1/2, -2, FDS, BLDP (S), IVX, down/further, just since last time here....while, AMZN, INSS, ERTS, ATHM, PBI., VIA, declined to their 200 DMA....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
Again, we still need to see many stocks break below recent
lows/necklines, and, so far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the
recent "1/2 pos.(ition)" sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own,
regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not
break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's High, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn the Patterns from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times,
right ? View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT
"chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their
lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan", one should probably
not do the real cheapies, etc.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
Prec.Metals (GSR, NGX, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DRFNY, DAY, AZC, BGO, NEM, AU, most all real cheapies, riskier, some may need more work/time)
Energy and Oil Svc. (SEV, KEG, RIG, SUN)
Foods (OJ, OPTS, UFD.A, VBAC), others are already up....
Insur./Financial: (add, TW, to, LFG, SVRN, ALL, ORI., AFG, CNC)
and, the Depressed "data/storage" (KMAG, WDC, RDRT, MXTR, etc.), and, "hospital/care" (GHV, BAL, IHS, HIV, HMA, etc.), and, Cyclical/Steel/Copper, etc., stocks, likely, again, ONLY after/on a bigger pullback....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, CDE, CYB, DX, FLE, HS, MXTR, ONSL,
PMD, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here,
plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) AIMM, ATV, BDT, BEZ, BS, BYX, CCC,
CPU, CWC, DRFNY, FNL, GDC, GLDR, GRERF, HEC, HNV, IFMX, IO., ISSI., JOB, MSN, PAH, PFC, VDC, RTC, SAMC, SCY, SGU, SHOW, SSN, SWW, TIE, TMD, TTRIF, TWA, UDG, UQM, WGA, XCL, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....still, not that great a
list, in the main....which should tell you something about "the marketplace".
also "Repeating" recent, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: added a Bunch, but a real mish-mosh: added, CPQ, DCX, IGL, HLT, SGI, RAD, NCT, PDG, PKD, SGE, ELK, TBP, CKP, ASA, MRX, EXX/A, GNRL, BTGC, ADSK, MCK, ORB, TSA, to, KFI, TZA, RIG, AFG, ONSL, HMA, HIB, RAL, SRV, TMK, AU, CDT, HSD, MI., AND, SHO, TXM, VL, X., HUM, PLC, RDRT, HA, CQB, VCR, BLD, XCL, IDC, TSK, VTR, CGI., MPN, AFCI., IRSN, ONX, ONPT, DATM, GISH, PBY, NOW, TGX, ABTX, CBRL, LDW, TIE, WDC, as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual ....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows ....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, this is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They only
become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if they decline
towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over
time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns
? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Health, Medical: IDPH, IVX, UNM, GLW, QLTI., BSX, OSTE,
Telecom/Commun./Internet: AMFM, UVN, BRCM, CSCO, TDS, USM, DY, WON, PTZ, PCS, etc.
Financial: MMC, FITB, PAYX, EQ, AFL, ABK, JPM, PVT, etc.
Retail/Clothing: TIF, LE, TBL, NIN, KSS, ZLC, NDN, etc.
Cap. Goods/Machy./Cyclicals: IR, GLK, JEC, FOE, KMT, DCN, DRQ, BCC, SII, etc.
(other "techs/computer/software/semis/media, etc." , Puttables, are in two lists just below,
Note, as of Wed., many herein were already down....but, as I said recently,
you had multiple opportunities to catch most all of these, as they popped to
originally suggested Puttable prices....
**** new ones: added, LZRC, to,
("repeats") ABDR, ADBE, ADVP, ALTR, ARC, ASND, ASTE, AWRE, CCU, CPN, EFII., ERTS, EL, EQR, EXDS, FDS, FO, GEOC, GMST, IIN, ISCA, JBL, LEA, MCLD, MFNX, ORBK, OSSI., PKS, PL, POS, PTZ, RFMD, SBUX, SWC, TLAB, TWX, USAI., XLNX....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: Machy./Cap. Goods, Energies, Auto, Online Broker/Banking,
Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Insurance/Finance/Banking (though some Banks are
iffy, and some Insur. are also longs), Entertainment, Computer/Internet/Software,
High-PE Techs, Media, and all Tele.-Commun., some Airlines, Retail, all near
their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we
are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks, as some tops broaden....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: just a quickie: We had another good illustration recently, why I keep teaching, that trading Utility stocks, calls, and puts, is so much more rewarding then "the 95 %" incorrectly (mis)believe....Not only have they tended to form decent little bases after drops, and little rounding tops after rises, over the years, their "options" have tended to have smaller premiums, yes ? That has meant, that one has not needed big % price moves, in order to create big % moves in their options, dig ? I'll bet few of you have ever traded options on Utility stocks, as part of your properly diversified portfolios....Yeah, well, please open your mind, the next time I put some herein....Why some nice, intelligent people still refuse to trade "stocks in certain industry groups" is illogical....the chart patterns are the same as any other I.G.'s....they just happen, often, to have cheaper options, dollar for dollar....good for us....
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....