1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) note, along with a few QSL's, you also got some QLG's among my Telecom depresseds herein....the benefits of diversification.... 2) B. Schaeffer's columnWed. was on 'potential great buying opp. after recent pullbacks ?" on Biotech stocks, all of which, by me, are Puttables on strength....go figure.... 3) he also only began being bullish on Gold stocks, get this, on 5/21....uh, a little late, ay guy ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) in their continued insolent and useless over-reporting of pot. merger bet. GE and HON, CNBC kept referring to every little % stock price move, as if it was huge....day after day after day....ridiculous, and they should be sanctioned....'nuff said....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) the Kraft IPO proves 2 things: there IS plenty of $ for stuff when and if, and tons of cash out there still... .and, there remain, tons of intellectually-lazy, people and institutions and $ mgrs. who 'punt' when they get a chance at something with relatively little 'super gains' potential, like Kraft at $ 31....the "PSYCLE sm" at work again....as it falls immediately.... 2) and, Tue., our govt. ann. that the U.S. gasoline supply rose another + 8 to 9+ mm barrels....see ? remember, I will likely end up being the first to predict 'the' top in the whole Energy thing, for now.... refining capacity running fell a little further, to 96 % ....not 99 or 100 % anymore, dig ? while things will bounce around this summer, of course, I wonder if my buddy's prediction here will be true after all....
3) L.A.T. 6/14, article, "Chinese Detective up to his eyes in Infidelity", proves another of my I-predicted-it-first-by-was-ignored concepts: that, with the great influx of Asians in So. Calif., they would generally begin to adoipt Western habits, like, overeating, less exercise, and, relatively more hedonistic behaviors socially (compared to what they have led people to believe for decades and centuries)....Mind you, I only print this prediction-coming-true, not to make any judgement or statement, except to prove my "PSYCLE sm" applies to a myriad of human activities in cycles....and that no one race or type of people or belief, is "it" nor 'perfect'....'nuff said....of course, occasional money-making opportunities exist from early stages of predicted trends, yes ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) "Mr. late" B. Schaeffer, Tue., said, "only one of 15 intl. stk. markets we follow are bullish here..." Interesting, since, if you recall, the majority were bullish by him, higher, recently, yes ?.... 2) and in a amazingly normal "PSYCLE sm" occurance, I saw where a few 'missed the lows, and only became bullish after big rises, or recently" B-firms, are now saying (again, only after nice S.T. expected-only-by-me recent corrections), "the outlook for energy and gas prices has become more uncertain"....hilarious, huh....but one predicts more mergers within Energy stocks, because of 'unclearness"....uh, excuse me ? wouldn't that, if so, be LESS attractiveness ? of course, if they were so smart, energy companies would have done their taking-over at much LOWER stock prices, yes ? the pattern rarely changes....'nuff said....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) well, another nail in the 'consumers will get screwed with higher power costs for years to come' coffin, as your Gov. Davis signs L.T. agreements with a bunch of Elec. co's. - get this - at higher-than-currently-available prices....that's right....they agreed to pay higher, forward, than they could pay now, after huge rises already....great work, guy....not....oh, and, via this agreement, many companies get paid - even if they do not produce any elec. for us....and you are still alive ?
2) a rare, well-done article recent L.A.T., "Hurdles Big for Govt.-run Retirement Reform" brings up points I have been mentioning for years, regarding letting our 'so efficient' (not) Govt. actually have a direct hand in trying to track, and invest, money from - get this - 150 mm individuals, many of whom have little income, little invested in any proposed program, move often, and/or have more than one job, dig ? writing, "it would be impossible to link 1/3 of all workers to their investments", and, "Bush has still offered no specific program/answers", and, "how would the Govt. invest little bits of money from millions of people ?", and, "another problem is getting the $ into investments directly" (without conflicts of interest, etc., I would add....)....'nuff said.... your tax dollars (not) at work, dig ? another potential huge morass of a horrible mess, coming, ay ? their last sentence was, "there is no way in the world to administer any plan". correct.
4) L.A.T. 6/11, big nasty piece, "Sierra warming trend portends terrible Calif. consequences", is still questionable, by me, but, they conflictingly write, "even marginally higher temps in Sierra Nevada mts. could lead to more flooding, and an overall decline in water supplies..." - kinda contradictory ? anyway, the forecast doom for us - and they say, nothing we can do to help it....so should be interesting, forward, with a supposed smaller-and-melting-faster ice-cap on the mts. WE need for our water, ay ? But, of interest, they mentioned that Calif. has supposedly had a 5-year-water-plan" since 1957....quote, "but, none has yet addressed climate changes." - which explains a lot about the always-existing inefficiency and ignorance of most govt. agencies, yes ? Last, at end, they did write, "of course, the same amount of water comes down to Calif., but earlier, in a period where not as useful, and more dangerous to us...", and, "the future is not going to be anything like the past", which means, exactly what ?, I ask...." Huh ? and, of course, water volumes shrink EVERY April to July, yes ? last sentence, "this is based on historical 'flood p[lains' records that climate change may render meaningless." again, so, what to do ? what do YOU think ?
5) and, via CNBC's weather guy citing a source whose L.T. actual T.R. we do not know, said, Fri., the 'west' will have much higher then normal temps, ahead, and lower moisture, so, along with recession, the world will definitely come to an end for everyone out there soon, right ?
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still many more Gains, many over + 100 %:
all puts IRF (66 to 36) for VVVVQ 175% Gain....all puts HNCS (33 to 19) for Q 175% G....all puts ROK (47 to 38+) for VQ 80% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. BWL/A (6++ to 10+) for L.T. 111% G....bal. calls SRM (12+ to 16+) for L.T. 125% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. BKI (10 to 14) for L.T. 80% G....bal. calls CTC (12+ to 15+) for 100% G....all puts MNI (43 to 38) for VVQ 50% G....stk.on.mgn. MLT (7+ to 8++) for small % G....
and/but, longs, PCLE, LPTH, ATHM, DSS, FON ? yes/no, NTT, LU, COMS, NT, and, puts, TDS ?, PMI, ESRX ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio ....still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/3 pos. ALXN @ 20 ?, CNXT @ 8+, 1/3 pos. COLT @ 32+, 1/3 pos. DITC @ 6+, 1/3 pos. HNT @ 17+, 1/3 pos. LU @ 6+, 1/2 pos. MONI. @ 9-, 1/3 pos. ORCL @ 15-, 1/2 pos. PCS @ 20, 1/2 pos. PRD @ 3+, 1/2 pos. RKY @ 51, 1/2 pos. T. @ 20+, 1/2 pos. UAXS @ 4,
1/3 pos. PTNR @ 4, CCE @ 16 1/2, 1/3 pos. CLRS @ 5.1,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): ADPT @ 8+, AETH @ 9, CWP @ 18+, FON @ 20- ?, HNV @ 0.25, MC @ 16 1/2, MSLV @ 8+, PKE @ 21+, POM @ 20+, PRSF @ 5-, STG @ 0.56, PNK @ 9+, TNE @ 15+, VGZ @ 0.09, VRTA @ 9+...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, ARBA, NTT, NMSS, COMS ?, CWP ?, CDO, MONI, PCLE, KEM, JDSU, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): BEAV @ 24-, 1/2 pos. GDW @ 65, GPT @ 39, IBM @ 117+, MCK @ 35, MEA @ 30, NVDA @ 99,
BBT @ 36+,1/2 pos. CBT @ 39-, 1/2 pos. CPG no ?, 1/2 pos. FDC @ 68-, 1/2 pos. GSB @ 30+, IVC @ 39, LSTR @ 71, 1/2 pos. RIT no ?, RSG @ 19.4, 1/2 pos. WM @ 36++,
"Repeats": AHG @ 27+, 1/2 pos. ESRX @ 107+, LLL @ 88+, 1/3 pos. OXY @ 30+, 1/2 pos. SYK @ 58++, 1/2 pos. TDS no, NCR @ 49, 1/2 pos. SNA @ 29++, ASBC @ 35-, ASFC @ 58, EXPD @ 65+, MOND @ 50+, SLM @ 70++, 1/2 pos. TYC @ 58++, WWY @ 49-, CHG @ 44++, CHD @ 25, LHP @ 46+, ORI. ?, RSLN @ 27....
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, MBI, MMM, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", MPH, RMBS, PCS, RPM, LBRT, TKC, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, DAL, BEN, KLAC, NOC, KKD, IP, TX, UNP, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern, more:
HNV 0.32 up 0.08, REMC 10.5 up 2.3, CNXT 9.2 up 1.1, CLRS 6.27 up 0.58, VRTA 9.33 (B), 11, APW 11.3 up 1, MONI. 9.3 up 0.5, MSLV 10.35 up 0.75, COLT 34.27 up 2, NTOP 9.4 up 0.4, CTC 15.5 up 0.7, PLD 22.45, BKI. 14.23, ADPT 9.62, CTL 29.3, WGRD 8.25, HA 3.3, HNV 0.33, higher since last NL here....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
as expected, most all Techs pulling back a bit (giving you ample opp. to buy more near lows !), then bouncing a bit, including, MC 17 1/2 up 1, ADCT 7, POM, APW 9.22, CLTK 12.21, AVX, MSLV 9.6, CNXT 8.6, POP, RCG, PNK, ADPT 8.46, TNE 15.41, VRA, LTD, BOW, GTW, DTHK 7.73, NTOP 7.65, CTL 27.7, BSX 17+, CLRS 5.74, VGZ....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) KANA, STG, LUX, HPC, BOW, SRM, FON, AETH 10+, POM 20.47, 21.25, AETH 9-, PRSF 4.87, PRIA 16+, UTHR 12.8, STTX, ALN, KEYN, CWP 18.18, 18.80, BID 18 to 20 to 17.7....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
IRF -30 (S) wow, NVDA -8, HNCS -9 (S) wow, EXPD -3 1/2, FDC -3 1/2, LLL -4 1/2, MOND -3, IBM -4 1/2, LSTR -3, ESRX -2, SYK -2, NCR -1 1/2, WM -1 1/2, ESCM -2 3/8,
more: MEA -2, ROK -1 3/8 (S), SLM -2, BBT -2, EDS -1 1/2, EXPD +1, -2 1/2, RGBK -1 1/2, GPT -1 3/8, GDW -1, BEAV -1 1/2, GSB, GPT, ESCM -1, OXY -1, BWS -1 1/4, RSG, TSO -1, CIN, KMI, PKS, ICCI. -1, WWY -1, AHG -1, PKS, VZ, APC, ICCI, RSLN, MO, lower, some further, since last NL here...
while, NBR 45, HP 38-, BJS, ONE, etc., down even further....while, HNCS, D, ROK, CIN, BJS, EXC, fell to/below or approached their 200 DMA....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, most Chem., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Papers, Apparel, etc.
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over the weekend again....
CTLM no, UAXS, COLT, ENTU, RPM, PTNR, ISSI, RKY, GX, CDE, TKC, TFS, HNT, PRD, ET, CPST, T, RSH, to, CCE, LU, RSH, UMC, CWP, GEN, VG, PKE, EMT, OTE, FILE, AETH, ADCT, EXDS, PALM, POWI, SCMR, TLAB, TWAV, YHOO, RMBS, IFMX, DITC, CNXT, CLRN, CTL, CLRS, BRIO, LBRT, MUSE, LPTH no ?, STXN, TERN, VASC, PRSF, WFII, FAF, UIS ?, ALXN, MC, TVX, BSX, APW, CCUR, CNXT, ORCL, WMUX, MDCC, POM, CDX, GL, HPC, AVX, PNK, BID, WGRD, GSLI, SUNW, MPH, XTND, CMNT, VRTA, SCMR, GILTF, NXCD, LVLT, MSLV, MRD, IBI, LTD, ADPT, RCG, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns ....don't "force" trades =....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
and, are/were these potential V.S.T. covered writes ?
CTLM no, DITC, NERX, AVCI, PWAV, ALXN, VRTA, PWAV, CMNT, STXN, LBRT, CNXT, CPST, WFII, some others, near lows.... basing, plus potential income, lose stock if fulfilled at expiration....same close stops below....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, TX, KLAC, CRY, GIS, BEN, IP, IRF, FRE, EC, MEA, IBM, NCR, STJ, MCK, CERS, EDMC, UNP, RSG, BCS, UVV, GSB, KMP, GPT, CBT, BBT, ENZN, JKHY, IDPH, NVDA, to, KKD, JBHT, BEAV, NOC, SYMC, ERTS, CHRW, BR, MO, WM, VRC, WFT, OXY, NI, LLL, FLR, FDC, DAL, to, HNCS, RGBK no ?, RTEC, NEU, SYK, SNA, TYC, CEG, BRKS, MOND, FHCC, BSTE, ASFC, MRCY, AHG, RE, LLL, RMD, TGT, TSO, LSTR, SYK, MSCC, RSLN, LEN, MSCC, LEH, EDS, MEE, VZ, BCS, TXU ?, CNI, STR ?, PL, WTM ?, ITT ?, CIN, DVA, CHG, HCA, ONE, ORI. ?, PHCC, ITG, BSYS, HSIC, ASBC, LNCR, IVGN, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Trans./Airlines, Loans, Disc. Chains, S.E. Banks, HMO's/health care, food/bev., Aero./Def., Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services, Commercial Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Homes-related/bldg., Media, Shoes/Apparel, Railroads, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES