1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) see recent past comments here,
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) 6/16 L.A.T. hedline, "stocks sink as bad news mounts" - good to see, considering likely bottoming ahead, yes ? ....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) long good article 5/27 L.A.T. about what is occuring in Silicon Valley downturn, nicely cites attempts at measuring the downturn through wine sales, psychiatric admission, party attendence, stock tips from service people, traffic, lines at chich eateries, etc., and, concludees, "no one knows what to make of anything here, but, job declines, so far, are at rates much les severe than after the 1990-91 economic top." Writing, "S.V. jobs fell 2,000 last month, but they are still + 30,000 ahead of this time last year...and 'spending on info. technology will rise by about 10% firward a year, less than 1/2 previous rate, but still growing a bit, and VC spending is way down, but UP 15 times its rate of 10 yrs. ago...." Interesting, huh, in that I read that NO where else, did you ? and, a big architect said he sees no evidence of cancellations or slowdowns yet....but, evidently, much fewer people attended appearance by the Dalai Lama recently, which I wonder is a sign of good or bad....and, the article concluded, "so there are a lot of people who will 'only' make $ 10 mm in 2001, instead of $ 20 mm." 'nuff said....the rich remain so, as always....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) semi-kudos to CALPERS, for saying they are considering cutting back their exposure in Energy stocks....late/lower than I would have done for them, as you know, saving Calif. workers billions (again - don't get me started), but at least they perhaps recognize a topping area.... rare.... 2) more stories all over about 'changes to the way analysts do their thing, and are related to companies covered, etc.' - citing that buys are at least 99 % of all recommendations historically, the SEC in their infinite and always late and not always doing the best anyway stance, wants to supposedly 'secure the independence of analysts'....they cited 'never putting out sells on any tech. stocks all the way down', and 'undue influence from companies on analysts and their firms, and vice-versa'....along with the new 'Disclosure' rules crap previously recanted herein, I am sure the powers that be will ruin whatever occurs, further, from here....but the most amazing quote was from a journalist who said, "smart investors buy stocks, and they keep them, they don't sell." - which proves my "PSYCLE sm" opinions yet again, ay ? He also suggested, "analysts should tell us the best stocks to won the next 5 or 10 years, not the next 5 to 10 weeks"....which also proves all my opinions on analysts as well...
2) Jim Schmiodt of J. Hancock Funds, Tue. 8:35, CNBC, actually said, "M & A activity is as bad as it can get....stocks always do well during periods when I.R.'s fall, as we have had recently...." Uh, excuse me ? if anything, the opposite has been true, yes ? and he gets overpaid for output like that ?
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) as I have mentioned previously herein, recent unnecessary and improper and unfortunate fires in NW forests point to how bad a job your govt. agencies are doing to preserve forests, paper, etc., on top of the eco-frauds-crooks.... 2) and, recent headlines, "Oil firms colluded together to raise prices", was a real shocker - not....let's see how your govt. does nothing right to rectify the situation.... manipulating refinery capacity to take advantage would normally be OK in a free market - but Energy is NOT unregulated properly, don't get me started....now, of course, oil firms want to circumvent the 'must sell only in Calif." laws....it won't end there....and, of course, Gov. Davis signed L.T., supply contracts at too-high prices....when, last summer, several Energy firms offered to ink L.T. contracts at much LOWER (you heard he right) prices than he caved in on here.... great system, ay ? last, article recently about how mnay Energy co. execs have been exercising and selling stocks options cashing in big-time....which is their right, of course, but obne said, "getting out while the going is good"....
3) last, evidently the number of complaints about power being down have dropped a lot...and more plants are shut down, all as I predicted herein....crossing fingers....but Bush has forced Calif. to use only Ethanol, against MTBE being phased out soon, as the only 'additive' in our car gas (neither are needed, but don't get me started again), but at least slightly better for the air and Ethanol is renewable more, and less toxic, so we shall see....perhaps all this, some day, will lead to inventions of cleaner-burning fossil-fuels, etc., over time, as with coal (tho coal still has a long way to go)....
4) and big article L.A.T., 6/11, "Gauging the global fuel tank's size", which smacks of 1973 (when the 'experts' all predicted limited future supplies, remember ?, but I digress), citing supposed worldwide supply diminution beginning 2010 or so, forward, to 'little or no oil production by 2100, saying, 'ionly one barrel of new oil has been discovered for every 4 produced, since 1900"....yeah, right....Gosh, wil people EVER learn cycles, or "PSYCLES sm" ? anyway, of interest, in a are move, our Govt. people actually correctly believe than new supplies will be found with new technology (as has been the case historically), plus other sources of energy, etc. - I would add, if we can just get the eco-frauds to let us drill Alaska, Artics, tertiary recovery, and in U.S. more places, etc., and better incentives for alternative stuff like, solar, wind, cells, etc. Last, also interesting, they cite that there is a TON more supply undergraound in northern Russia and Artic regions, than in the MIddle East, and that reserves in the Middle East have been 'grossly overestimated'....but many say our 'refining/production capacity' will increase nicely all along, helping the situation, counter to the new (late, as usual) doomsayers....and, All people said "prospects for Nat. Gas supplies L.T. are much brighter"....'nuff said....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still many more Gains, more over + 100 %:
bal. stock FNV (0.85 to 5.10) for huge % Gain, wow....all stk.on.mgn. MWBX (6++ to 11+) for L.T. 125% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. BWL/A (6++ to 10+) for L.T. 100% G....1/2 pos. puts ICCI (28 to 22) for Q 88% G....1/2 pos. puts SNA (31+ to 25++) for Q 75% G....1/2 pos. puts MO (52 to 44) for VQ 66% G....1/2 pos. puts MRCY (54 to 44) for VQ 75% G....bal. puts DJ. Util. Avg. (400 to 356) for VQ big % G....1/2 pos. puts KMI (59++ to 54) for VQ 33% G....1/2 pos. puts TYC (59 to 54) for VQ 35% G....
and/but, longs, PNK, LPTH, DITC, AETH ?, LU, CWP, FON ? yes/no, and, puts, GDW ?, ESRX ?, GSB ?, CBT, WM, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio ....still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. AES @ 41+, 1/2 pos. CMNT @ 9-, 1/3 pos. COMS ?, 1/3 pos. ERICY @ 5, 1/2 pos. LBRT @ 8+, 1/3 pos. NEWP @ 21+, NFX @ 33+, PWAV @ 10+, 1/3 pos. RBAK @ 10- ?, RMBS @ 10, RSH ?, TEK @ 24, 1/2 pos. TNL @ 21, (note, took LU, COLT, UAXS, off list B4 would have bt.)
1/3 pos. ALXN @ 20, CNXT @ 8-, 1/3 pos. HNT @ 17+, 1/2 pos. MONI. @ 9-, 1/3 pos. ORCL @ 15,1/2 pos. PRD @ 3+, 1/2 pos. RKY @ 51, T. @ 20+, 1/3 pos. PTNR @ 4, CCE @ 16, 1/3 pos. CLRS @ 5.1,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): ADCT @ 7, ADPT @ 8+, ALN @ 11, BID @ 18-, BOW @ 44+, FON @ 20-, 1/2 pos. GTW @ 15+, HNV @ 0.25, LTD @ 15, MC @ 16+, MSLV @ 8+, PKE @ 21+, POM @ 20+, PRIA @ 15+, PRSF @ 5-, PNK @ 9+, TNE ?, VGZ @ 0.09, VRA @ 1+...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, COMS, MTP, CLRN ?, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. BSYS @ 58 ?, XON @ 89, MMM ?,
BEAV @ 24-, 1/2 pos. GDW no, GPT @ 39, IBM @ 117+, MCK @ 35, MEA @ 30, NVDA @ 99, 1/2 pos. CPG no ?, 1/2 pos. FDC @ 68-, 1/2 pos. GSB @ 30+, IVC @ 39, LSTR @ 71, 1/2 pos. RIT no ?, RSG @ 19.4, TSO @ 107+,
"Repeats": AHG @ 27+, 1/2 pos. ESRX @ 109, GDC @ 67++, LLL @ 88+, 1/3 pos. OXY @ 30+, 1/2 pos. SYK @ 58++, NCR @ 49, 1/2 pos. SNA @ 29++, ASBC @ 35-, ASFC @ 58, SLM @ 70++, 1/2 pos. TYC @ 58++, WWY @ 49-, CHG @ 44++, CHD @ 25, LHP @ 46+, ORI. ?, RSLN @ 27....
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", CCUR, MCSI, Q, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, SHOO, ADVP, SNPS, SO, CVS, FRE, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern, more:
FNV 5 1/2 up 2 1/2 (S), ORCL 17.08 up 2.48, MWBX 11 1/4 up 1 (S), NEWP 23.41 up 2.41, TEK 25.27 up 1.27, AES 42.94 up 1.69, WGRD 8.43, PRD 3.43, T. 21.1, higher since last NL here....while, MDCO, approach their 200 DMA ....and, we got yet another takeover, MWBX, see the base ? ....and, TGX hit 14, wow (S).
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
as expected, most all Techs pulling back a bit (giving you ample opp. to buy more near lows !), then bouncing a bit, including, CDX 18.2 up 1, PKE +1, MC, ADCT, POM, APW, CLTK 11.96, AVX, MSLV (B), CNXT (B), POP, BID 17.72, TEO 15.31, RCG, PNK (B), ADPT, REMC 9.5, MRD 16.8, BSX 17, VRA, LTD 15 (B), PRIA 15+ (cb), BOW 44.64, GTW, DTHK 7 (B), NTOP, CTL, CLRS, PRD 3.1 (B), VGZ....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) KANA, STG, LUX, HPC, BOW, SRM, FON, POM, PRSF, TNE, UTHR, STTX, CNXT 7.85, ALN, KEYN....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
TDS -8, NVDA -4, BSYS -2 1/2, MRCY -2 1/2, CHG -2 1/8, SNA -2 1/2 (sow), TSO -1 1/2, MO -2 5/8 (sow), CHRW -1 1/4, ICCI. -1 1/4 (sow), TYC -1, BBT, BEAV, VRC -1, NCR, RSLN, VZ, OXY, MO, FRE, APC, MOND, and the DJ. Util. Avg. -10 (S), lower, some further, since last NL here....and, NCR, LMT, MO, approach their 200 DMA....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, most Chem., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Papers, Apparel, etc.
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over the weekend again....
added even more: AES, JBL, LIN, Q ?, TEK, PWR, SLR, TSM, TXN, AG, KLM, QBAK, TCC, TZA, MOT eh, UAL eh, ALTR, ASML, ACTM, ACTL, AUDC, AVCT, CNET, ANEN, ERICY, SANM, TMTA, MCHP, NEWP, QLTI. ?, MEDI, to, ENTU, RPM, PTNR, ISSI, RKY, CDE, TKC, TFS, HNT, PRD, ET, RSH, CCE, RSH, UMC, CWP ?, GEN, VG eh, PKE, OTE, FILE, ADCT, EXDS, PALM, POWI, SCMR ?, TWAV, RMBS, IFMX, CNXT, CLRN ?, CTL, ALN, T, CLRS, BRIO, LBRT, MUSE, BID, STXN, TERN, PRSF, WFII, FAF, UIS ?, ALXN, MC, MLT, TVX, BSX, APW, CCUR, CNXT, ORCL, WMUX, MDCC, POM, CDX, GL, HPC, AVX, BID, WGRD, GSLI, SUNW, MPH, XTND, CMNT, VRTA, GILTF, NXCD, MSLV, MRD, IBI, LTD, ADPT, RCG, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
and, are/were these potential V.S.T. covered writes ?
DITC, NERX, AVCI, PWAV, ALXN, VRTA, PWAV, CMNT, STXN, LBRT, CNXT, WFII, some others, near lows ? ....basing, plus potential income, lose stock if fulfilled at expiration....same close stops below....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, XOM, MMM, CHV, SO, HCA, SNPS, RLRN, DORL, BSYS, CDCO, TX, KLAC, FLGS, CRY, GIS, BEN, IRF, FRE, EC, MEA, IBM, NCR, STJ, MCK, CERS, EDMC, UNP, RSG, BCS, UVV, GSB, KMP, GPT, BBT, ENZN, JKHY, IDPH, to, KKD, JBHT, BEAV, SYMC, ERTS, CHRW, BR, VRC, WFT, OXY, NI, LLL, FLR, FDC, DAL, HNCS, RGBK no ?, GDW no, RTEC, NEU, SYK, SNA, TYC, CEG, BRKS, MOND, FHCC, BSTE, ASFC, AHG, RE, LLL, RMD, TGT, LSTR, SYK, MSCC, RSLN, LEN, MSCC, LEH, EDS, MEE, VZ, BCS, TXU ?, CNI, STR ?, PL, WTM ?, ITT ?, CIN, DVA, CHG, HCA, ONE, ORI. ?, PHCC, ITG, BSYS, HSIC, ASBC, LNCR, IVGN, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Polution-related, Homes/Building, Aero./Def., Trans./Airlines, Loans, Disc. Chains, S.E. Banks, HMO's/health care, food/bev., Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services, Commercial Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Homes-related/bldg., Media, Shoes/Apparel, Railroads, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES