1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) in a real shock, the Nikkei. brokeout above its resistance back to June 1997, over 17,300....after more pullbacks, targets up towards the 20- 21,000 area down the road ? also, Sweden, Germany, Hong Kong, France, broke out a bit....of course, WE prefer to buy near lows, way BEFORE any rise, yes ? we do NOT buy 'breakouts', as you know, regardless of the ramifications and potentials....Allied (while we do NOT "link"), as I mentioned last time here, some Foreign currencies still look bottomy, and the U.S. Dollar looks toppy still.... 2) normal: all day Monday, CNBC was all over the Internets, right ? super bullish again, right ? well, Tues., most gave back most of their pops, yes ? got it ? I mean, even ELNK's rumored takeover, only caused it rise up to its 200 DMA, stage 5 or 6 resistance, around $ 62+, see it ? as I predicted in mid-Jan. here, any "takeovers" of Internet stocks, were likely to occur well BELOW their highs, anyway....normal for stage 6 in their "PSYCLE sm".... 3) the T-bond is going to try to bottom here....ditto, cash Gold....may still take a while, though....and cash Copper, as expected, fell all the way back down to its low 60's support again.... 4) note predicted/expected relative strength among Iron, Steel, Gold, Alum., stocks.... 5) but our Insurance stocks must strengthen or else.... 6) and more of a top forming in Paper stocks, as expected.... 7) last, while I mentioned/predicted a likely double-top soon in Interest Rates, just over 6.20 %, a while ago here, the chart of the "30-yr. T-bond rate" itself, IS in a 6-month uptrend....meaning, until/unless its rate falls below 5.5 % again, it will remain in an intermediate-term uptrend....and, while I am not expecting this to happen on THIS price move, when/if its yield gets over 6.25 %, as I said before, it does project towards 7 % down the road....but let's stick with the probable double-top in yields, soon, for now....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper comments from the
Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) CNBC's Bob Pisani, Tue. 22nd, 8:30 am, said "the Cyclical stocks, are holding up nicely, not falling, which shows relative strength", showing, DOW, IP, charts....hmmmm, stocks which I see, as potential puttables.... 2) did you know that, from Jan. '99 through April '99, the top performing stock market indexes, have been, in order, Turkey, Mexico, Korea, Russia, Hong Kong, and Phillipines ? Most all loved by Wall St. now, all were royally hated/feared last summer, near their "PSYCLE sm" lows, yes ? ....3) Wed., CNBC asked viewers to name their softball team....the best I could come up with, was "often incorrect, sensalitionalizing, infuriating, lucky-but-probably-very- nice people, who help once in a while, mostly in a contrary manner"....Rats, that will never fit on their shirt-fronts....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/newspapers/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.: 1) "Wall St. & Tech." Mag., July issue: they are predicting that "total number of online brokerage accounts", already having grown from 600 K in 1995, to 14 MM in 1999, will grow to 40 MM accounts, in 2002....note, that's assuming another tripling from the levels now, dig ? "PSYCLE sm" opinion: I think they are OVER-estimating, and that online brokerage accounts will NOT grow as much from here, because we have a deeper correction coming, slowdown in economy and R.E. here, and, again, too many daytraders who will quit or get blown up ahead ....also, please realize, there are not all that many traders in the entire country....I mean, how many people are there over 21, with decent amounts of investable money, out of 250 MM people in the USA ? maybe, 25 MM ? I think MER has "only" 6 MM accounts ? and, how many of those, actively trade ? and, how many are "just one family, with several different accounts" ? Again, near the top, the Media always overestimates the future, right ? I rest my case....
2) in an allied story, Wed., Waterhouse Brokerage IPO rose "only" 9 %, its first day....CNBC tried to report that as a "great performance"....Not.... 3) allied, WSJ, 6/22, headline, "Lehman Bros. earnings rise, beating forecasts, but stock falls 6 %": see ? NO "link"....while analysts continue to raise their estimates forward....perhaps some day they might want to learn technical chart patterns.... 4) USA today, 6/22: headline, "Workers find Internet firm stock options underwater": chronicled, how, many employees of Internet companies, now, afterrecent stock price drops, have "incentive co. stock options" exercisable ABOVE recent prices....Hey, expect something-for-nothing, and, sometimes, you get nothing....I have seen this occur many times over the years....of course, some companies will reprice their options lower, which I have always found abhorrent, but I digress....as you know, most people have way too much of their assets in the stocks of the company they work for....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) none this time....gee, perhaps they are also in "summer doldrums" ?
As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
bal. puts SCAI (80 to 55) for Q 175% Gain....bal. puts BOL (82- to 68-) for VQ 111% Gain....bal. calls CPB (40 to 44+) for Q 75% G....1/2 pos. stock HIV (1 3/4 to 2 7/8) for Q 55% G....bal. puts TI. (110 to 100) for 50% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. AAC (4+ to 8-) for 111% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. MWY (8+ to 12+) for Q 80% G....
and/but, longs, DRFNY, SAMC, bal. RDRT, OJ, and, puts, PCLE, PHG, AJG, TDS, USM, OCLI, HIFN, for quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....plus, again, I bet almost none of you actually "had" any Puts recently, even among all those big puts Gainers I gave you herein....it will still reward you to learn how to do "puts" forward.
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) IGL @ 18+, STE @ 16++, TSK @ 16+, 1/2 pos. VL @ 7.06,
"Repeats": (note, some new ones today !) AAM @ 1 3/8, AFG @ 33+, ALL @ 35+, AND @ 7, ATV @ 1 3/8, AU @ 19-, BAL @ 2.06, BEZ @ 19+, BYX @ 3 9/16, CAU @ 0.20, CBRL @ 16-, CCH @ 0.28, DAY @ 0.08, FOTO @ 3 1/8, GDC @ 2 1/4, GISH @ 2 13/16, GRERF @ 0.28, GSR @ 11/16, HIV @ 2 1/8, HLT @ 13+, HNV @ 2 5/16, IDC @ 4+, IFMX @ 6 5/8, JOB @ 4+, KRY @ 5/8, NEM @ 17+, NGX @ 0.53, PLC @ 3, SUN @ 30, SVRN @ 12-, TMK @ 33+, TXB @ 3 5/8, TZA @ 4 13/16, VGZ, XCL @ 1.06....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds...."buy (only) low", right ? (but still Not that great a list, as I have been intimating recently)
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein,
countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT
"just one day, time, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts" ....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....ditto, for our Puttables ....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it all, for all your situational needs....your choice, but no excuses....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly:
the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, BGP, DX, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, or bases, which set up properly....for one thing, we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first, and/or then more fully formed "bases", yes ?
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) AMAT @ 70+, ASD @ 48-, EDS @ 58-, FO @ 43-, NMR @ 30, NOVL @ 25, NXLK @ 83-, OAT @ 68+, RFMD @ 66-, "the NASD stock index @ 2260", "the Russell 2000 Index" @ 450-, "the "XCI" computer Index @ 946 or so,
"Repeats" (note, revisiting some recent names again):
ACXM @ 29, ASTE @ 43+, CAKE @ 30, EFII. @ 52-, ERTS @ 52-, GLW @ 62-, INSUA @ 20, IPG @ 80-, IR @ 70-, NDN @ 49+, NEO @ 18++, POS @ 97-, PVT @ 42++, RAYS @ 17, SBUX @ 38+, SCOR @ 33+, SYK @ 62+, UNM @ 59,
and/but, took, BRCM, OMPT, CHKP, WAT, NFX, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....also, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR benefit....
IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web
site, a stock might break above its extended S.T. umbrella top, or below its
depressed EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit
their "buy, or put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still Added,
as above....So I am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you
consider buying any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is
still O.K., and therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have
aborted.... this takes just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from
buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns quickly after
publication of my NL's, then incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the
process is Your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", HSD, ORB, FAF, MLG, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, MFNX, ADCT, CLS, HRB, EAT, CI, EQ, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs ....Every single stock here was specifically given herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
TAROF 10 3/8 up 2 1/4 (sos), JOB 5 5/8 up 1 1/8, PETM 10 3/4 up 1 1/8, SGI. 15 1/8 up 2 1/8, TSK 17 3/4 up 1 5/8, CBRL 17 5/8 up 1 1/2, SGE 6 7/8 up 1/2, EGR 25 3/8 up 2, AU 20 1/4 up 1 5/8, PRD 27 3/4 up 1 3/8, RAD 26 1/4, PMC 8 3/4, TZA 5 7/8, PAA 19 1/4, CGI. 23 3/8, AIMM, still higher, since last time here....
a small not-always perfect tip: not only did SGI. have a S.T. saucer [ayttern, it also had/has stock of a separately-traded subsidiary, worth $ 13. alone, a decent "fundamental" item....sometimes, we get both....also, note, while we are long NEM and AU golds, I added SWC gold, as a put...all technical....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: DGN 14 7/8 up 1 7/8, NEM 18 3/4 up 1 1/2, AND 7 1/2 up 1/2, BUNZ 11 1/4 up 1 1/4, APFC 8 1/2 up 5/8, SVRN 12 5/8 up 7/8, SGU 16 3/8 up 3/4, CBRL 16-, HIV, PRD, ALL, TXB, IFMX, BLM, PSFT, KMAG, RAD, WH, TWA, RIG, ABH, RJF, WTT, UDG, BEZ, NPSI., UFC, PAH, FLE, GSR, PFC, HLX, NOV, SSN, LDW, OCN, SWW, SOC, Golds, SXTN, SSN, HEC, TPS, MSN, ESC, RTC, CCH....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below ....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) CNC, LFG, SUB, BUNZ, SVRN, KMAG, OCN, WTT, DAY, BGO, BEZ, PAH, BAL, SXTN, AAM, SSC, OMM, SOC, ESC, HEC, RYO, CAU, NEM, SUB, MSN, WH....mostly Golds and Insur. stocks....note how this list is Growing....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
UCOMA -13 1/2, VYTL -6, RFMD -6, NXLK -6, GLW -4 1/2, AMAT -5, POS -3 1/2, IR -4, EDS -3 1/2, AMFM -3, EFII. -3, BGEN -1 1/2, OAT -2, SWC -2, KMT -2, NEO -1 1/2, SCOR -1, OSTE -1, FOX -1, CAKE -1, SII. -1, BRK/A, ACXM -1 1/2, EQR, FOE -1, ITW -1 1/2, DJ. Util. Avg. 324+, NDX, NASD index 2188, down/further, just since last time here....
please view one-year-past charts of MFNX, as just one example of a short-term top, turning into a "rolling top" pattern....see it ? while, UCOMA, was a shorter-top with insider selling, as i teach in my "downside" booklet....last, SII., was a "normal" top after a rise-off-a-predicted-depressed base....second, view where their 200 DMA's are currently, dig ? hope this helps....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
Again, we still need to see many stocks break below recent
lows/necklines, and, so far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the
recent "1/2 pos.(ition)" sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own,
regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not
break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's High, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn the Patterns from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times,
right ? View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT
"chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their
lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan", one should probably
not do the real cheapies, etc.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
Prec.Metals (GSR, NGX, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DAY, AZC, BGO, NEM, AU, most all real cheapies, riskier, some may need more work/time)
Energy and Oil Svc. (KEG, SUN)
Foods (OPTS, UFD.A, VBAC), others are already up....
Insur./Financial: (LFG, AFG, CNC, TW, SVRN, ALL)
and, the Depressed "hospital/care" (GHV, BAL, HMA, etc.), and, Cyclical/Steel/Copper, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
Note how many stocks there are on these lists....what I see, I share, for your benefit....as I have said countless times here, try to VIEW at least "some" of them, every day, for, say, 10 mins....do NOT try to view them all, at once.... since most remain on these lists for a while, hopefully you will know when they pullback to buyable levels, having seen their chart patterns before....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) AIMM, ATV, AU, BDT, BEZ, BYX, CCC, ASA, CWC, FNL, GDC, GLDR, GRERF, HEC, HNV, IFMX, IO., JOB, MSN, PFC, VDC, RTC, SAMC, SCY, SHOW, SSN, SWW, TMD, TTRIF, TWA, UQM, WGA, XCL, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....still, not that great a list, in the main.... which should tell you something about "the marketplace".
also "Repeating" recent, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: added a Bunch, but a real mish-mosh: added, ADM, STK, IHK, DMI, NVX, NX, BOGN, ICGX, ONSL, MAN, STE, FAF, CYB, PMD, SEM, TW, to, IGL, HLT, SGI, RAD, NCT, PDG, SGE, ELK, CKP, CHB, MRX, EXX/A, GNRL, FLE, HS, BTGC, MCK, ORB, TSA, KFI, TPS, TZA, HMA, SRV, TMK, CDT, HSD, MI., AND, SHO, TXM, VL, HUM, PLC, VCR, BLD, XCL, NOV, IDC, VTR, CGI., IRSN, SVM, ONX, ONPT, GISH, PBY, ABTX, LDW, TIE, as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns.... don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, this is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They only
become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if they decline
towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over
time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns
? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Health, Medical: UNM, GLW, BSX, OSTE, etc.
Telecom/Commun./Internet: LMG/A, AMFM, UVN, USM, DY, PCS, NMR, etc.
Financial: PAYX, ABK, IPG, PVT, etc.
Retail/Clothing: LE, KSS, ZLC, NDN, RAYS, etc.
Cap. Goods/Machy./Cyclicals: ITW, IR, GLK, FOE, DCN, DRQ, BCC, SII, etc.
(other "techs/computer/software/semis/media, etc." , Puttables, are in two lists just below,
Note, as of Wed., many herein were already down....but, as I said recently,
you had multiple opportunities to catch most all of these, as they popped to
originally suggested Puttable prices....
**** new ones: added, AMAT, BSYS, CI, HLIT, HLTH, LXK, NFX, RATL, TQNT, UCOMA, to,
BIO/A, BPA, CLS, CNS, EAT, EXDS, FON, FOX, FWRD, HIFN, HWP, IBI, LZRC, RAYS, SDLI, SEE, SEIC, SYB, VTEL, VRTY, WY, XRX, and most "amex WEBS" securities, to,
("repeats") ABDR, ADVP, ALTR, ASND, ASTE, AWRE, CCU, CPN, ERTS, EL, EXDS, FDS, GMST, INSUA, ISCA, LEA, MCLD, MFNX, NEO, NTLI, NXLK, ORBK, OSSI, PKS, PL, POS, RFMD, SBUX, USAI, WWCA, XLNX....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: Machy./Cap. Goods, Energies, Auto, Online Broker/Banking,
Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Insurance/Finance/Banking (though some Banks are
iffy, and some Insur. are also longs), Entertainment, Computer/Internet/Software,
High-PE Techs, Media, and all Tele.-Commun., some Airlines, Retail, all near
their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we
are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks, as some tops broaden....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: as good as my concepts and patterns have been over the years, I have always alerted you, that, one of the very few patterns my "PSYCLE sm" has acknowledged we have tended NOT to be able to exploit, is the "extremely high-level, S.T. almost top, after a big rise already in that stock, that shockingly breaks out (up) even further, when it 'should' form more of a top, but does not". That's why, most of the times my Puttables break their patterns, are on such moves....Also, often, many S.T. tops, tuurn into longer-term rolling tops, and we will sometimes get into, out of, then back into, some Puttables in that one stock....withoi-ut over-emotionalizing, as always....one must cut the Q, S, loss, even if it eventually forms a longer top formation, because stocks like that can make another "measured move rise" up, after aborting the pattern, and we do not want to be stuck in it, dig ? Last, some of these are going to become "fakeout breakouts", anyway, as you have experienced at times with me, but we must stick with the basic pattern/concept, and not worry about the ones we occasionally miss, or get whipsawed in....For the umpteenth time: qsince no one is going to win more than, say, 2 out of 3 trades, over time, one key is to DIVERSIFY, and NOT just buy ONE put potsition, but at least a few at all times, where suitable, so that one "fakeout breakout" will not affect our psyche....hope this helps....please re-read my "Downside" booklet....
in such cases, we just let the stock do its thing, remove it from our brain, and move on to others....the last few years has seen more of these than I can ever recall, causing the vast majority of our Q, S, puts losses....among the Lessons to learn from those, is Not to "try to keep watching it so you Can catch it when/if it falls at some point", but, instead, to just "let it go", and forget about it....Much healthier, mentally. By properly diversifying, one is also less affected by such stocks, anyway.
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....