Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, ended formally, back in early April 2000, with issue # 207+, a while ago....(so/but this NL is Not really being actually published formally, publically, any more, and has not been, for quite a while now ....I just wanted a place to keep track of what I would have said and done and felt, since I was forced undeservedly to stop my NL, months ago....this is ONLY for my own edification and proof of the value of my output and concepts to others), and anyone reading this has NOT gotten it from me....
dated: 9:00 am, PST, Thursday, June 28, 2001


"2001: a Trading Odessey"

or, "The Patterns Rarely Change"

Important Note: this serious, very valuable "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, due to the too-often at least semi-gestapo, uncaring, ridiculous, illogical, NASD/SEC rules, and the uncaring, inconsiderate, and thoughtless nature of most all brokerage firms....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, here, twice each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance, very-long-term track record, and to offer further significant, in-advance, in-writing, 'proof' of the value and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

OK, Wed./Thu., the initial wekaness from 'only' a 1/4 pot. fed rate cut, as expected, lead to more nice long Buy opportunities and pops among depresseds....an intelligent guy interviewed on CNBC immediately after the Fed's move, called for a 3/4 % drop, to 'do what they need to do to get econ. better again', and, that, he felt, the Fed would cut another 1/4 %, once or two more times, forward, with their taking much longer to act to try to effect things....just as they (the Fed) raised rates too long/high/far in the period previous to our several recent rate cuts, remember ? I predicted, and agree with, his assessment, then, and now....Greenspan kinda lost 'it' a while ago, as I was among the first to predict, 2 years ago, herein....but, again, none of this affects any of our chosen trades/ideas, anyway, right ?

In your continuing 'PSYCLE sm pattern education', assuming you viewed all the correct Energy Puts I gave you from highs, covered lately, that, again Wed., with Crude down a full $ 1., more and more 'people who loved them at their tops' are just beginning to become more negative on those stocks, dig ? just as they approach their 200 DMA's as expected....in this 'lag' effect, this, in a way, is near-perfect "PSYCLE sm" behavior, which I wish had worked better recently, especially longside (but it will again soon)....therefore, we expect pops in those stocks, not big further declines, yes ? And, Wed., CNBC announced "expect car gas prices to fall from here this summer...." An amazing statement, given their sensationalizing comments recently (similar to my being first to predict fewer blackouts in Calif., not more)....but, as I was, as usual, first to predict, "U.S. gasoline inventories rose further last month, by over 3 mm barrels, and refining cap. util. fell further, to 94.2 %", they said. Too late, as always, for non-PSYCLE traders to take advantage well enuf....also, note, Fri., cash Crude fell to $ 25 now, from $ 29 recently - but, again, too late to begin to Puts any of those, in fact, some may be close to buyable....

as I said, some $ previously in Energy, Drug, Financial, etc., should move towards Techs - but, as usual, maybe only after some Techs pop, as usual ? we shall see....remember, my concept was that, as in the March/April period, whatever transpired, however, 'the 95 %' who missed those bottoms, would likely miss these bottoms....so much for their attempts (the last several decades) to trade/time based solely on 'fundamentals/news'....we know better....again, the other recent ideaa, was to notice 'closet strength' in Puttables as a harbinger of potential pops in depressed Techs, which we may be experiencing now....this is how "PSYCLE sm" nuance sentiment and I.G. rotation often works connectedly....

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) I don't 'do' big indexes, but, as I mentioned, the OEX continues, so far, to hold the 624 area, even as the 'news' scares people, also note expected 'fobd's' among some depressed Techs....part of the bottoming process, as taught.... 2) again, obviously, some Banks and Insur. stocks are on cusp of pot. breakouts/up, so watching closely....remember, the concept is to do be in Puts in some, with close stops, always assuming some "fobo's", at extremes, just in case, but assuming some WILL work out, as with Energy, Drugs, and other groups in similar patterns past.... 3) while everyone else seemingly gets all excitedly bullish about MSFT again at 74++ Thu., note it still has resistance up here, and does not have massive upside pot. regardless ....again, these were the same people loving it at 120, and hating it at 45, yes ?

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) Tue., CNBC's B. PIsani should be punished even more: twice, he actually reported supposedly negatively on telecom stocks, 'linking' it to, and I quote, "they are down on the probability of Cellular phones being banned in NYC"....uh, excuse me ? how incorrect and misleading is that ? ....2) then, their new flunky reporter, Tue. 11:38, misled massively, saying, "the financial stocks are getting hammered here, due to MER and worries about the Fed", yet NONE are down even 1 or 2 % recently, and not much more than that, recently, anyway.... don't get me started.... 2) similarly, CNBC reporters' crapola surrounding the Fed useless stuff Thu., as usual, turned out to be a waste of time and resources.... as I said, it was/is likely 'the 95 %' would miss the bottoms in Techs, and most have, so far....if 'only' a 1/4 % rate drop was/is so 'disaappointing, then how coms ewe have nice pops thereafter ? next....

3) was disappointed to hear CNBC's T. Matheson, Thu. am, did not know what the "QQQ's" were (the NASDAQ index....explains a lot, ay ?

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) with HM getting taken over, $ 9 up Q from $ 3, note the 8 big Insider Sales much lower recently....gee, you'd think 'insiders' would have 'special knowledge', as IN-correctly assumed by 'the 95 %' (and proven countless times by me and in my Booklets), but more proof of my "PSYCLE sm", yes ? .... 2) and, for the umpteenth time, note how with I.R.'s supposed so 'low', that consumer LENDING rates credit cards, etc., remain usurically high....no greed there, ay ?

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) as expected "Big Charts" (I call their future-stock-price-predictions, "Bad Charts", based on their lousy T.R.) just went semi-negative on Energy stocks - late/low, as usual, dig ? so, as I mentioned herein, watch for some pops in the ones I share herein, S.T. anyway.... 2) MER, Tue., formally just went negative on most Tech. stocks, Telecom, Comp. stuff, etc., shocking, occuring down here as some bottoms are forming, dig ?

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ....


So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....

"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:


still more Gains:
bal. puts PKS (23+ to 18+) for Q 90% Gain....1/2 pos. puts MOND (50 to 44-) for VQ 50% G....1/2 pos. puts IBM (120- to 111+) for VVQ 33% G....

and/but, longs, MC, bal. calls HPC ? ny, and, puts, RE, EDMC, RSG ?, ASBC ?, TDS (108 to 100 to 108), IRM, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....all still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:

(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs):
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:

AES @ 41, 1/3 pos. CLRN @ 7, 1/2 pos. KFY @ 15+, 1/3 pos. PWR @ 22,
1/2 pos. AMCC @ 13.3, ASML @ 20+, 1/3 pos. CCUR @ 5+, 1/2 pos. EXAR @ 17.15, 1/2 pos. FAF @ 19-, 1/2 pos. GILTF @ 12-, 1/3 pos. MCSI. @ 13.6, 1/2 pos. OTE @ 6++, 1/2 pos. ET @ 6+, PWER @ 14++, 1/3 pos. SUNW @ 14+, 1/2 pos. AES @ 41+, 1/3 pos. COMS @ 4 1/2, 1/2 pos. LBRT @ 8+, PWAV @ 10+, 1/3 pos. RBAK @ 9 ?, CNXT @ 7 1/8, T. @ 20+, 1/3 pos. PTNR @ 4, 1/3 pos. CLRS @ 5.1,

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AVX @ 17+, AWE @ 15+, CCE @ 16, CLTK @ 12-, FON @ 20, 1/2 pos. GTW @ 15+, HNV @ 0.25, HPC @ 11+, IBI. @ 14+, KEYN @ 9+, LTD @ 15, POM @ 20+, POP @ 12.1, PRIA @ 14+, TNE @ 14+, UTHR @ 11+, VGZ @ 0.09, VRA @ 1+, VRTA @ 9+..."buy (only) low", right ?

** Important: took, PPD, WMUX, LIN, TWAV, EXDS, MCHP, TZA, MDCC, XTND, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops:
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. PGR @ 135+ ?,
1/2 pos. ALL @ 44+, BBT, CBT @ 39, 1/2 pos. DLX @ 28-, HCA @ 44, JKHY @ 30, PGR @ 134+, RMD @ ?, XOM @ 89, RGBK, 1/2 pos. CPG no ?, IVC @ 40, RSG no ?,

"Repeats": AHG @ 27+, ASFC @ 58, CHG @ 44++, CHD @ 25, GPT @ 39+, FDC @ 67, LHP @ 46+, ORI.@ 28++....

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, FHCC, SO, MAT, PATH, MSFT, MSCC, BSYS, DORL, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", YHOO, TCP, SCH, AG, JC, FILE, RKY, INFY, TXN, MOT, LSI, UAL, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, , as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):

**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).



acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn the pattern, more:
PTNR 4.84 up 0.85, AMCC 16.04 up 1.86, CLRN 7.94 up 1.29, CNXT 8.5 up 1.4, ACTL 23.80 up 2.48, REMC 11.34 up 0.84, LBRT 9.75 up 0.6, ADPT 9.55 up 0.72, ORCL 19.04 up 0.98, AVX 18.94 up 1.33, MCSI. 14.5 up 1, ERICY 5.39 up 0.44, ET 6.72 up 0.49, EXAR 19.50 up 2.45, CNXT 8.5 up 0.6, PWER 16.15 up 0.85, AWE 16.78 up 1.49, PRIA 16.76 up 1.33, AES 43.25 up 2, ASML 22.45, MU 41.2 up 1.4, ALXN 23, CTL 29.98, PKE 24.63, PWAV 12.27, CCE 16.43, T. 21.6, VRTA 10.86, NEWP 26.25, IBI. 15.1, LTD 15.83, higher since last NL here ....note 'fobd' in CMNT, SCH....

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and more bounces after pullbacks:
as expected, most all Techs pulling back a bit (giving you ample opp. to buy more near lows !), then bouncing a bit, including, CNXT 7.18 (B), 8.5, CLTK 13.7 up 1.2, UTHR 12.4 up 1, POP, TEO, FON 21.1, AVX 19.08, POM 21.07 up 0.99, RCG, MRD, BSX, ORCL 17.7, VRA, VGZ....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....


and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:


(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) POM was a 'fobd', KANA, STG, HPC (S) ?, SRM, STTX, ALN, KEYN (a 'fobd' ?) 9.12, 10.30....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:

(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, stick around:

Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out to learn:
SRDX -2, DVA -7/8, MOND, OXY -1, XOM -1 1/2, TSO, lower, some further, since last NL here....while, IP fell to its 200 DMA....even ONE fell to 35....

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):

: ALL +1, ORI, SLM, NCR, NVDA -2, +4, FDC, SYK, SRDX +1, -2, RSG, JKHY +1, EXPD -1, +2, IBM +5, AHG, EDS, LSTR, MMM +3....this ends our 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):


depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, some Chem./Farm/Fert., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Apparel, Retail, etc., but probably not Airlines, nor big Golds, yet....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):

We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over the weekend again....
added even more: but, note, removed a bunch, and some already up, as well:
ARXX, EXAR, AMCC, NUAN, SNDK, SPCT, TECD ?, HWP, MOT, CCI, AVT, AWE, KTC, ENE, IRF, JBL, SCH, MOT, TXN, TEK, TCP, BHE, CEL, KFY, SCS, MXO, SFE, to, CSCO, AES, AG, TCC, UAL, ALTR, ASML, ACTM, ACTL, AVCT, CNET, ANEN, ERICY, SANM, QLTI, CHINA, CTHR, ENTU, RPM, PTNR, CDE, TKC, TFS, ET, RSH, CCE, UMC, CWP, VG eh, PKE, OTE, ADCT, POWI, SCMR, IFMX, CLRN, ALN, T, CLRS, BRIO, VRTA, LBRT, MUSE, STXN, TERN, WFII, FAF, ALXN, MLT, TVX, BSX, CCUR, CNXT, ORCL, POM, AVX, GSLI, SUNW, MPH, CMNT, GILTF, NXCD, MRD, IBI, LTD, ADPT, RCG, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns ....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....

and, are/were these potential V.S.T. covered writes ?
DITC, NERX, AVCI, PWAV, ALXN, VRTA, PWAV, CMNT, STXN, LBRT, CNXT, WFII, some others, near lows ? ....basing, plus potential income, lose stock if fulfilled at expiration....same close stops below....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, as all others have been recently Removed, now smaller list for you:

* add, ALL, KSS, PGR, DLX, NBIX, SRDX, IGT, CHS, XOM, AEOS, GENZ no ?, to  XOM, MMM, CHV, KLAC, GIS, IRF, IBM, NCR, STJ, RSG no ?, KMP, GPT, BBT, JKHY, IDPH, JBHT, SYMC, ERTS, CHRW, LLL, FDC, RGBK ?, RTEC, NEU, SYK, ASFC, AHG, RMD, TGT, LSTR, EDS, BCS, TXU ?, CNI, ITT ?, CBT, DVA nah, CHG, IVC, HCA, IVGN, from recent past NL's....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Polution-related, Homes/Building, Aero./Def., Trans./Airlines, Loans, Disc. Chains, S.E. Banks, HMO's/health care, food/bev., Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services, Commercial Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Homes-related/bldg., Media, Shoes/Apparel, Railroads, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES