1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) I don't 'do' big indexes, but, as I mentioned, the OEX continues, so far, to hold the 624 area, even as the 'news' scares people, also note expected 'fobd's' among some depressed Techs....part of the bottoming process, as taught.... 2) again, obviously, some Banks and Insur. stocks are on cusp of pot. breakouts/up, so watching closely....remember, the concept is to do be in Puts in some, with close stops, always assuming some "fobo's", at extremes, just in case, but assuming some WILL work out, as with Energy, Drugs, and other groups in similar patterns past.... 3) while everyone else seemingly gets all excitedly bullish about MSFT again at 74++ Thu., note it still has resistance up here, and does not have massive upside pot. regardless ....again, these were the same people loving it at 120, and hating it at 45, yes ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) Tue., CNBC's B. PIsani should be punished even more: twice, he actually reported supposedly negatively on telecom stocks, 'linking' it to, and I quote, "they are down on the probability of Cellular phones being banned in NYC"....uh, excuse me ? how incorrect and misleading is that ? ....2) then, their new flunky reporter, Tue. 11:38, misled massively, saying, "the financial stocks are getting hammered here, due to MER and worries about the Fed", yet NONE are down even 1 or 2 % recently, and not much more than that, recently, anyway.... don't get me started.... 2) similarly, CNBC reporters' crapola surrounding the Fed useless stuff Thu., as usual, turned out to be a waste of time and resources.... as I said, it was/is likely 'the 95 %' would miss the bottoms in Techs, and most have, so far....if 'only' a 1/4 % rate drop was/is so 'disaappointing, then how coms ewe have nice pops thereafter ? next....
3) was disappointed to hear CNBC's T. Matheson, Thu. am, did not know what the "QQQ's" were (the NASDAQ index....explains a lot, ay ?
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) with HM getting taken over, $ 9 up Q from $ 3, note the 8 big Insider Sales much lower recently....gee, you'd think 'insiders' would have 'special knowledge', as IN-correctly assumed by 'the 95 %' (and proven countless times by me and in my Booklets), but more proof of my "PSYCLE sm", yes ? .... 2) and, for the umpteenth time, note how with I.R.'s supposed so 'low', that consumer LENDING rates credit cards, etc., remain usurically high....no greed there, ay ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) as expected "Big Charts" (I call their future-stock-price-predictions, "Bad Charts", based on their lousy T.R.) just went semi-negative on Energy stocks - late/low, as usual, dig ? so, as I mentioned herein, watch for some pops in the ones I share herein, S.T. anyway.... 2) MER, Tue., formally just went negative on most Tech. stocks, Telecom, Comp. stuff, etc., shocking, occuring down here as some bottoms are forming, dig ?
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more Gains:
bal. puts PKS (23+ to 18+) for Q 90% Gain....1/2 pos. puts MOND (50 to 44-) for VQ 50% G....1/2 pos. puts IBM (120- to 111+) for VVQ 33% G....
and/but, longs, MC, bal. calls HPC ? ny, and, puts, RE, EDMC, RSG ?, ASBC ?, TDS (108 to 100 to 108), IRM, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....all still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
AES @ 41, 1/3 pos. CLRN @ 7, 1/2 pos. KFY @ 15+, 1/3 pos. PWR @ 22,
1/2 pos. AMCC @ 13.3, ASML @ 20+, 1/3 pos. CCUR @ 5+, 1/2 pos. EXAR @ 17.15, 1/2 pos. FAF @ 19-, 1/2 pos. GILTF @ 12-, 1/3 pos. MCSI. @ 13.6, 1/2 pos. OTE @ 6++, 1/2 pos. ET @ 6+, PWER @ 14++, 1/3 pos. SUNW @ 14+, 1/2 pos. AES @ 41+, 1/3 pos. COMS @ 4 1/2, 1/2 pos. LBRT @ 8+, PWAV @ 10+, 1/3 pos. RBAK @ 9 ?, CNXT @ 7 1/8, T. @ 20+, 1/3 pos. PTNR @ 4, 1/3 pos. CLRS @ 5.1,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AVX @ 17+, AWE @ 15+, CCE @ 16, CLTK @ 12-, FON @ 20, 1/2 pos. GTW @ 15+, HNV @ 0.25, HPC @ 11+, IBI. @ 14+, KEYN @ 9+, LTD @ 15, POM @ 20+, POP @ 12.1, PRIA @ 14+, TNE @ 14+, UTHR @ 11+, VGZ @ 0.09, VRA @ 1+, VRTA @ 9+..."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, PPD, WMUX, LIN, TWAV, EXDS, MCHP, TZA, MDCC, XTND, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. PGR @ 135+ ?,
1/2 pos. ALL @ 44+, BBT, CBT @ 39, 1/2 pos. DLX @ 28-, HCA @ 44, JKHY @ 30, PGR @ 134+, RMD @ ?, XOM @ 89, RGBK, 1/2 pos. CPG no ?, IVC @ 40, RSG no ?,
"Repeats": AHG @ 27+, ASFC @ 58, CHG @ 44++, CHD @ 25, GPT @ 39+, FDC @ 67, LHP @ 46+, ORI.@ 28++....
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, FHCC, SO, MAT, PATH, MSFT, MSCC, BSYS, DORL, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", YHOO, TCP, SCH, AG, JC, FILE, RKY, INFY, TXN, MOT, LSI, UAL, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, , as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern, more:
PTNR 4.84 up 0.85, AMCC 16.04 up 1.86, CLRN 7.94 up 1.29, CNXT 8.5 up 1.4, ACTL 23.80 up 2.48, REMC 11.34 up 0.84, LBRT 9.75 up 0.6, ADPT 9.55 up 0.72, ORCL 19.04 up 0.98, AVX 18.94 up 1.33, MCSI. 14.5 up 1, ERICY 5.39 up 0.44, ET 6.72 up 0.49, EXAR 19.50 up 2.45, CNXT 8.5 up 0.6, PWER 16.15 up 0.85, AWE 16.78 up 1.49, PRIA 16.76 up 1.33, AES 43.25 up 2, ASML 22.45, MU 41.2 up 1.4, ALXN 23, CTL 29.98, PKE 24.63, PWAV 12.27, CCE 16.43, T. 21.6, VRTA 10.86, NEWP 26.25, IBI. 15.1, LTD 15.83, higher since last NL here ....note 'fobd' in CMNT, SCH....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
as expected, most all Techs pulling back a bit (giving you ample opp. to buy more near lows !), then bouncing a bit, including, CNXT 7.18 (B), 8.5, CLTK 13.7 up 1.2, UTHR 12.4 up 1, POP, TEO, FON 21.1, AVX 19.08, POM 21.07 up 0.99, RCG, MRD, BSX, ORCL 17.7, VRA, VGZ....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) POM was a 'fobd', KANA, STG, HPC (S) ?, SRM, STTX, ALN, KEYN (a 'fobd' ?) 9.12, 10.30....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
SRDX -2, DVA -7/8, MOND, OXY -1, XOM -1 1/2, TSO, lower, some further, since last NL here....while, IP fell to its 200 DMA....even ONE fell to 35....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
depressed Farm/Land/Fert., Health-related Depresseds, some Chem./Farm/Fert., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Apparel, Retail, etc., but probably not Airlines, nor big Golds, yet....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, comp. - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over the weekend again....
added even more: but, note, removed a bunch, and some already up, as well:
ARXX, EXAR, AMCC, NUAN, SNDK, SPCT, TECD ?, HWP, MOT, CCI, AVT, AWE, KTC, ENE, IRF, JBL, SCH, MOT, TXN, TEK, TCP, BHE, CEL, KFY, SCS, MXO, SFE, to, CSCO, AES, AG, TCC, UAL, ALTR, ASML, ACTM, ACTL, AVCT, CNET, ANEN, ERICY, SANM, QLTI, CHINA, CTHR, ENTU, RPM, PTNR, CDE, TKC, TFS, ET, RSH, CCE, UMC, CWP, VG eh, PKE, OTE, ADCT, POWI, SCMR, IFMX, CLRN, ALN, T, CLRS, BRIO, VRTA, LBRT, MUSE, STXN, TERN, WFII, FAF, ALXN, MLT, TVX, BSX, CCUR, CNXT, ORCL, POM, AVX, GSLI, SUNW, MPH, CMNT, GILTF, NXCD, MRD, IBI, LTD, ADPT, RCG, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns ....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
and, are/were these potential V.S.T. covered writes ?
DITC, NERX, AVCI, PWAV, ALXN, VRTA, PWAV, CMNT, STXN, LBRT, CNXT, WFII, some others, near lows ? ....basing, plus potential income, lose stock if fulfilled at expiration....same close stops below....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, ALL, KSS, PGR, DLX, NBIX, SRDX, IGT, CHS, XOM, AEOS, GENZ no ?, to XOM, MMM, CHV, KLAC, GIS, IRF, IBM, NCR, STJ, RSG no ?, KMP, GPT, BBT, JKHY, IDPH, JBHT, SYMC, ERTS, CHRW, LLL, FDC, RGBK ?, RTEC, NEU, SYK, ASFC, AHG, RMD, TGT, LSTR, EDS, BCS, TXU ?, CNI, ITT ?, CBT, DVA nah, CHG, IVC, HCA, IVGN, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Polution-related, Homes/Building, Aero./Def., Trans./Airlines, Loans, Disc. Chains, S.E. Banks, HMO's/health care, food/bev., Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./S & L, Energy and Services, Commercial Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Homes-related/bldg., Media, Shoes/Apparel, Railroads, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES