1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) still looks like the 113.6 area on the T-bond is a double-bottom, as predicted....even when/if the "Fed" raises rates formally.... 2) allied, CNBC reporter, Wed. 30th, noon, asked, "why, if the Fed takes no action (instead of raising rates), are the Utilities falling ?" Then, the more amazing answer, from Art Cashin, "well, perhaps Utility investors are disappointed the Fed did not raise rates, since people dislike indecision... see, if interest rates HAD risen, their expectations would have been realized, and they would have been happy....but since rates did not rise as predicted, then Utility stocks were disappointed...." Re-read that....that was a quote....Makes NO sense ! If that was so, then why did they buy/hold topping/falling Utility stocks in the forst place, dig ? More "mental crap" on the part of ignorant "institutional" investors....'nuff said....BTW, the 200 DMA on the DJ. Util. Avg., remains around 310....and, next support, around 315....its low, Thu., was 315++ .... 3) and, hey, look at our Gold stocks, as Gold itself, seems to be forming more of an EVB, and Silver is already bouncing up off its predicted double-bottom.... 4) note predicted pops in our depressed Energy stocks.... 5) last, note predicted slight new high, in the Nikkei. Index....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper comments from the
Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) L.A. Times, 6/27, big headline, "Has the U.S. economy entered a golden era ?" hmmmmm....they wrote, "today's record boom is a sign of things to come...." Wow....aren't these the same people, who have been questioning the L.T. strength, all the way up from the lows, which THEY did Not predict ? and, of course, you know what a headline like that, only appearing "after" a L.T. growth phase means, "PSYCLE-wise", right ? ....2) an allied item, L.A. Times, 6/27, front-page column, Tom Petruno, "In this market, a lot is riding on complacency": he must still be reading my output, though, as I said, he still never contacts me, but I give him credit for another in a long line of "warning" columns....He quoted the "permanently high plateau market" sources, and noted the too-bullish % of advisors that I have told you about recently herein....He then gave all sorts of "fundamental/technological" reasons why, in a 130-year chart he showed, "the near-record expansion of the 1990's has optimists declaring the business cycle, which has produced 31 recessions since 1857, may (itself) be abating, breaking the cycle"....i.e., no more wide economic cycles/swings. I say, don't you dare believe that....as I said beginning this spring, our whole 17-year recent experience may be reversing, for reasons previously given you here....
3) 6/29, front-page headlines, nationwide, "Govt. sees $$ Trillion windfall/surplus", etc. Yeah, right....Those wonderful govt. people with such terrible track records, and rip-off mentalities, are counting their potential chickens again, in another example of political BS grandstanding....Don't you buy it....L.A. Times said, "Clinton's most optimistic assessment of nation's financial health, sees increased spending....unexpected revenue" (which has not even really been earned yet, yes ? they are just guessing, still, yes ?).... 4) as I recently mentioned here first to you, L.A. Times, 6/29, headline, "Riding the cycle in semi. chip-equip. stocks": Another in an amazingly consistent example of how the Medi ONLY loves these widely-swinging stocks, AFTER big run-ups, and hates them at their lows after big drops....their table inside article, said, "the good times return", dig ? Highlighting recent rises in ASML, CYMI, AMAT, TER, KLAC, as super-buys now/here....hmmmm....geee, who was among the first/only to specifically give out 4 of those stocks as "PSYCLE sm" long Buys, last year, here, at much, much lower prices ? At your service....Anyway, another perfect example of how the Street and the Media and the Market, "discounts ahead of time", stocks of companies with much higher earnings forward, in this I.G. Also, as taught in my "I.G.R Rotation" booklet (re-read it), this article suggested also moving into the lesser-known stocks, even though they, too, are already up a bunch....last, they INcorrectly said stocks in this I.G. were "down 10-20 % off their highs, as if that was somehow a "bargain", when, in fact, they are still, up, 100 to 300 % off their lows, get it ? Remember, these stocks will already be down from their highs, big-time, BEFORE any "news" comes out about lower growth, etc., right ? the pattern never changes....
5) Bob Pisani, CNBC, Wed. at the close, after rally after no Fed action, said, "these are the kind of days on the floor that are really fun....This was exactly what the Bulls wanted....this rally is real, it is solid, and we are back..." Famous last words to sucker more people in ? ....6) and, I truly hope you already know this, but, you do realize, that, the "prime rate" always moves LAST, only AFTER all the other rates/instruments have moved, yes ? Hence, Wed. Chase Manh. raised their P.R. a small amount, means NOTHING, in the big pictur, and is of NO predictive value... 6) CNBC's Bob Pisani, Thu. 1st, 8:30 am, 'created' a report of a (minor) "a big new high, in 'light sweet crude oil' ....Gee, I don't know....still looks like a double-top to me, and/or, at most, nothing to get excited about, Bob....He then, shockingly said, "trust me...it's what I do for a living"....Boy, with his track record, I hope he keeps his day job....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/newspapers/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.: 1) Tue. 29th, 8:50 am, CNBC's Ted Nathan, had pres. of "PAYX" on, asking, "why is your stock down, when your co. has record earnings ?"... 2) note predicted drop in OSTE, which I was first/only to give out as put for you at its recent high....remember, I specifically mentioned OSTE here, because/when CNBC highlighted it, near its high, in Jan., as "a real comer"....learn the pattern.... 3) Wed. 30th, 9:15 am, CNBC reporter highlighted NIKE, saying, "analysts say it is beginning to become attractive again"....you know, "orders strengthening", etc. yadda, yadda....Let's see, in it's predicted L.T. "PSYCLE sm" base, around $ 10-15, they hated all the athletic shoe stocks, a few years ago, because "the third world/asia" would supposedly drive them out of business, right ? Then, at $ 60-75, they fell in love with it, as usual, remember ? Then, last Fall, they all disliked it again, again, due to "asian woes"....and, now, up from $ 35. to $ 65., they are "beginning" to like it again ? wild, huh....Are you learning ? Recall, I got L.A. death threats for putting LA. Gear, on my TV show, when it was around $ 50. The pattern never changes....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) Tue. 29th, KWHY-tv, 1:15 pm, Sunny Harris, of the Trader's Catalog & Resource Guide, a Great Product, but questionable track record, and real nasty to me, said, "fundamentals, and psychological, factos, mean nothing, ever....everything is 100 % computerizable", predicting, "the Dow will explode immediately to 12,000"....we shall see.... 2) Wed. after the close, Frank barbera, KWHY-tv, a guy I respect as you know, shockingly said, "the DJ. Util. Avg. looks like it is forming a rounding top here...." Hmmmm, gee, Frank, hadn't it ALREADY formed that formation, and you never said anything about it ? It would more correctly have been said, to have fallen FROM a previously formed rolling top, as only I was first to predict herein, but your slanderous nasty reporter-buddy, R.S., told you not to consider anything I ever might say ? You should be ashamed of yourself....
As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
bal. calls MI. (14+ to 35+) for HUGE % Gain....puts SBUX (38- to 26-) for Q 125% G....puts SAPE (75 to 58) for Q 111% G....puts OSTE (38+ to 27+) for Q 111% G....1/2 pos. stock PLC (3.06 to 4+) for Q 33% G...bal. puts RCNC (48 to 40+) for 90% G....1/2 pos. puts SII. (48 to 40+) for VQ 90% G....1/2 pos. puts KMT (31- to 25+) for VQ 90% G....1/2 pos. puts IR (70- to 62) for VQ 55% G....1/2 pos. puts DHR (68 to 56) for % G....1/2 pos. puts ACXM (29 to 26) for VQ 33% G....1/2 pos. puts CBS (47 to 42+) for Q 50% G....
and/but, longs, AND, KMAG, PAH, IGL, XCL, BAL, and, puts, GLW (62- to 57+ to 62+), INSUA, BGEN, ERTS, OSSI, PVT, PMA, EFII., IPG, PTZ, EXDS, CAKE, FWRD, RFMD, SCOR, AMAT, ORBK, ZLC, UVN, DY, and "the NDX/NASDAQ" index, and the "XCI. index", for quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....plus, again, I bet almost none of you actually "had" any Puts recently, even among all those big puts Gainers I gave you herein....it will still reward you to learn how to do "puts" forward....but, still way too many QSL's all of a sudden....rare....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) 1/2 pos. ACL @ 27, CFS @ 2 15/16, DMI. @ 2 15/16, and, cash "Gold" @ 260+....
"Repeats": (note, some new ones today !) AAM @ 1 5/16, AFG @ 33+, ALL @ 35+, ASA @ 16, ATV @ 1 3/8, BEZ @ 19+, BYX @ 3 9/16, CAU @ 0.20, CCH @ 0.28, CHB @ 18++, DAY @ 0.08, FLE @ 25-, FNL @ 5-, FOTO @ 3 1/8, GDC @ 2 1/4, GISH @ 2 13/16, GRERF @ 0.28, GSR @ 11/16, HEC @ 1 11/16, HLT @ 13+, HMA @ 11+, IDC @ 4+, IFMX @ 6 5/8, KEG @ 3.06, KRY @ 5/8, LFG @ 27+, MAN @ 22+, NGX @ 0.53, SAMC, SVM @ 18-, TMK @ 33.06, TSA @ 4+, TXB @ 3 5/8, VGZ, VL @ 7 1/8....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds...."buy (only) low", right ? but some are "optionables/higher-priced) (but still Not that great a list, as I have been intimating recently)
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) ....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion, diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, SRV, HSD, GHV, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) BSX @ 43+, GNET @ 91+, HLIT @ 57+, RATL @ 36, SYB @ 27+, TGNT @ 60,
"Repeats" (note, revisiting some recent names again):
ASTE @ 43+, AXE @ 18+, EDS @ 58+, FULL @ 69+, ITW @ 82-, KMT @ 31-, NMR @ 30, OAT @ 69-, POS @ 95+, RAYS @ 17+, SBUX @ 38-, SWC @ 31+, USAI. @ 43-,
and/but, took, BMCS, HIFN, CLS, NFX, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....also, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", RGA/A, IRID, ICGX, ESL, LTV, FLC, ESL, ASF, MT, HS, OJ, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, WCOM, BEAM, SPP, LXK, DCN, SEE, FON, AYE, IBI., as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock here was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently ....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
MI. 35+ up 19 wow (S), IFMX 8 5/8 up 2, TSA 5 3/8 up 1 1/8, NPSI. 17 up 3 3/8, SGI. 17 up 2 1/2, SGE 7 3/8 up 1, RLC 11 3/4 up 1 5/8, FNL 5 3/8 up 1/2, PFC 7 3/4 up 5/8, TMD 9 1/4 up 3/4, UNO 9 1/2 up 1 1/8, BBA 7 5/8 up 3/4, EGR 26 5/8 up 2 1/8, STE 19 7/8 up 1 3/4, RJF 24 up 1 1/2, FLE 26 3/8 up 1 5/8, ACL 29 1/2 up 2 3/4, PLC 4 3/8, CGI. 25 up 1 1/2, BEZ 20 1/8 up 7/8, SVM 18 3/4 up 1, NEM 19 7/8, CDE 4 3/4, AU 21 3/4, SGU 17 1/2, PLL 22 1/8, HLT 14 1/4, VL 7 3/8, FTL 10, ASA 16 5/8, HOC 14 3/8, up/still higher, since last time here.... and, did CBRL 17 3/8, revalidate ?
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: SWW 2 3/4 up 3/8, KEG 3 1/2 up 1/2, SOC 7 3/4 up 7/8, RTC 5 up 3/8, HLX 6 5/8 up 1 3/8, RIG 28 up 3, PSFT 17 3/8 up 1 3/8, WH 18 up 1 5/8, LFG 28 7/8 up 1 1/8, TMK 34 1/8 up 1, BXH 6 1/8, PLC 3 1/2, SGE 7 1/4, 5 1/2, 6 1/2, 7, weird, HOC 13 3/8 -1, LDW, AFG, TXM, BS, DGN, BUNZ, APFC, RJF, PMC, SVRN, TSA, HIV, TXB, RAD, TWA, ABH, WTT, UDG, UFC, SSN, LDW, OCN, SXTN, SSN, HEC, TPS, CGI., MSN, ESC, RTC, CCH, STE....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) CNC 30 3/4 up 2 1/4, SUB 42 1/2 up 1 3/4, RAL 30 1/2, UFC -2, +1 3/8, HLX, CHB, BUNZ, OCN, WTT, DAY, BGO, SXTN, AAM, SSC, OMM, ESC, HEC, RJF, PLL, RYO, CAU, MSN, WH....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
SBUX - 12 (S), SEIC -11 1/2, GNET -6, OSTE -4 1/2, SAPE -5 (S), EXPD -4, OAT -3 1/2, RATL -3 1/2, RCNC -2 1/2 (S), NXLK -5, USAI. -3, TGNT -3, HLIT -3, EDS -3, BIO/A -2, IR -1 1/2 (S), KMT -1 1/2 (S), BPA -1 1/4, DHR -1 1/4 (S), ACXM -1, NEO -7/8, FO, DJ. Util. Avg. 315++ (sow), down/further, just since last time here....while, SAPE, ACXM, fell to their 200 DMA, and, CKFR, down further to 25....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
Again, we still need to see many stocks break below recent
lows/necklines, and, so far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the
recent "1/2 pos.(ition)" sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own,
regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not
break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's High, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn the Patterns from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times,
right ? View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT
"chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their
lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan", one should probably
not do the real cheapies, etc.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
Prec.Metals (GSR, NGX, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DAY, AZC, BGO, PDG, ASA, most all real cheapies, riskier, some may need more work/time)
Foods (OPTS, UFD.A, VBAC), others are already up....
Insur./Financial: (LFG, AFG, CNC, TW, SVRN, ALL, TMK)
and, Cyclical/Steel/Copper, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
Note how many stocks there are on these lists....what I see, I share, for your benefit....as I have said countless times here, try to VIEW at least "some" of them, every day, for, say, 10 mins....do NOT try to view them all, at once.... since most remain on these lists for a while, hopefully you will know when they pullback to buyable levels, having seen their chart patterns before....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, RGA/A, IT, SAVLY, ACL, LTV, STEI, FLC, DMI., TXM, HZP, AVM, CFS, EAR, TKN, NTN, HIV, MT, S., to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) AIMM, KEG, ATV, BDT, BEZ, BYX, CCC, HMA, CWC, FNL, GDC, GLDR, GRERF, HEC, HNV, IO., MSN, PFC, VDC, RTC, SAMC, SCY, SHOW, SSN, SWW, TTRIF, TWA, UQM, WGA, XCL, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....still, not that great a list, in the main.... which should tell you something about "the marketplace".
also "Repeating" recent, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real mish-mosh: ADM, IHK, DMI, NVX, NX, BOGN, ONSL, MAN, STE, CYB, PMD, MMP, SEM, TW, IGL, HLT, RAD, NCT, SGE, ELK, CKP, MRX, EXX/A, GNRL, HS, BTGC, TSA, HOC, TPS, TZA, HMA, CDT, SHO, TXM, VL, HUM, VCR, BLD, IDC, IRSN, ONX, ONPT, GISH, PBY, NHP, ABTX, LDW, TIE, as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, this is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They only
become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if they decline
towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over
time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns
? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Health, Medical: UNM, BSX, etc.
Telecom/Commun./Internet: LMG/A, AMFM, UVN, PCS, NMR, etc.
Financial: PAYX, ABK, etc.
Retail/Clothing: KSS, NDN, etc.
Cap. Goods/Machy./Cyclicals: ITW, IR, GLK, FOE, DRQ, BCC, SII, etc.
other "techs/computer/software/semis/media, etc." , Puttables, are in two lists just below, and, note, added more "Energy" puttables....
**** new ones: added, AT, AXE, BBBY, BCE, CMVT, GNET, KMG, MERQ, MUR, NT, PLCE, SBC, SFA, SFX, TERN, TRK, to,
AMAT, ARC, BIO/A, BPA, BSYS, CI., CNS, EAT, EXDS, FON, FOX, HLIT, HLTH, IBI, LXK, LZRC, RATL, RAYS, SEE, SEIC, SYB, TQNT, UCOMA, VTEL, VRTY, WAT, XRX, most "amex WEBS" securities, and,
("repeats") ABDR, ADVP, ALTR, ASND, ASTE, AWRE, CCU, CPN, EL, FDS, GMST, LEA, MCLD, NTLI, NXLK, PKS, PL, POS, SBUX, WWCA, XLNX....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: Machy./Cap. Goods, Energies, Auto, Online Broker/Banking,
Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Insurance/Finance/Banking (though some Banks are
iffy, and some Insur. are also longs), Entertainment, Computer/Internet/Software,
High-PE Techs, Media, and all Tele.-Commun., some Airlines, Retail, all near
their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we
are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks, as some tops broaden....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: given the ideas shared in sec. (3) above, no lesson today....please re-read my educational booklets....
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....