1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) hey, notice how, as I was, as usual, the first/only to suggest its big top "in the 85 area" recall, herein, that the XAU is already down towards the 71 area ?....and the BKX down from 880 to 790 (S) as well....am I good, or what ? ....2) seems most of the I-shares, which I was first/only to give you herein as Puttables correctly, have made V.S.T. bottoms.... you're welcome.... 3) as usual, I am the first/only to suggest more depr. Airline stocks are bottoming....and semis, thos d.b.'s previously suggested ? ....4) note how many previously-given 'fobd's' are being re-added in sec. (6) below, hmmmm..... 5) and, do a bunch of the Oil Service stocks stil look a bit lower, technically ? interesting.... 6) re-view Puts Gainers among our I-shares, biotechs, financials, banks, pharm., indexes, semis, so next time, you will know the normal toppy pattern ! I have been teaching people to take davantage of this, for decades, the same way, now....I am glad to have been of such valueable output....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Govt.,
etc.:
1) onca again, thanks for NOTHING, to the L.A.T. recent front-page, headline, "too much too soon for Telecom....building a bubble", shedding absolutely NO new light on a big downtrend which, of course, THEY failed to predict (as i and some others did), all this time....what a continual waste of whatever 'talent' is there, and of their many captive readers' time, ay ? BTW, did you know that 'telecom capital spending' was still, $ 97. B. in 2001, vs. $ 81. B. in 1999 ? - yet many companies stocks prices are much lower today, dig ? according to this article, the 'scary part' is that 'telecom companies' debt levels' are up to $ 300 B., from $ 9 B. in 1996, so i am not expecting miracvles from here, either....so, as I seem to be, as usual, among the few saying, there IS a futue in these busted EVB stocks, yes ? the question is, who among my followers will take advantage....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) a B.S. british tobacco martin Feldman, analyst (sic) said that "demand for smoking IS elastic, about 40 % so, when prices rise, because the black market in cigarettes operates so efficiently"....he liked all the stocks at/from their highs, and still does after nice drops he did not predict, dig ? anyway, uh he never mentioned how the product is ADDICTIVE, dig ? thats where the demand derives....give me a break....oh, and while we normally eschew fundamentals, MO, with about eps 5.50 or so, at $ 40., is now the same price it was in 1995, when the stock was also $ 40. - EVB, anyone ? but RJR is not as cheap - interesting, since Mo has all those other businesses to 'support/protect' it ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) amazingly, only Fri., did B. Scheaffer formally refer to "the bear market", get it ? a little late, ay ? anyway, showing chart of, in his opinion, previous recent bear markets (index down -20 % or more, etc., yadda, yadda), since 1973, he sais, this one dates back 5757 days, the 2nd longest since the 1973-74 period's 739 days....so, whilke I see us as super close, HE sees another 6 months of down....i would easily bet with me, and against him, wouldn't you ?
e) more general, political, misreported items proving
why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) saw, first time ever, a nice pnemonic - that the word FEAR, stands for 'false evidence appearing real' - neat, huh....use it....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better,
and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains:
4 more Longs, and,
3 more Puts:
as you have always done, please read them and VIEW their charts carefully, to learn patterns
1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. DRIV (5 to 9 1/4) for 100% Gain....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. LMNX (6+ to 8+) for VQ 75% G....at least 1/2 pos. puts SYY (29+ to 25+) for 55% G....bal. puts ZBRA (60 to 47+) for VQ 80% G....bal. puts BSG (36 to 32) for VQ 55% G....bal. puts ARRO (47 to 36) for Q 100% G....bal. puts CEC (48 to 40+) for 88% G....bal. puts CBH (50 to 43) for Q 66% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. AMD (8 to 9++) for VVVQ 33% G....1/2 pos. calls IMI (18+ to 20+) for VVQ 44% G....1/2 pos. puts PTSI (26- to 22+) for 60% G....bal. puts BDX (38 to 30+) for 80% G....bal. puts FSS ?,
and/but, longs, LAVA (13, 16, 13-), MIPS, SIEB ?, bal. KANA, PHA, SBL sto, IVGN, MDTH ?, bal. CNU, ACPW, and, puts, TOT , for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not
on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
again, "just get real close" to
suggested prices:
1/2 pos. UAL @ 10+, 1/3 pos. AXA @ 16+ eh, 1/4 pos. KM @ 0.88 ?, 1/2 pos. MENT @ 13, the NASDAQ index under 1,400- fobd ?, 1/4 pos. LNUX @ 0.80-, 1/3 pos. MONE @ 5 ?, 1/3 pos. PB @ 14 ?,
BPUR @ 6++, 1/2 pos. THER no ?, 1/4 pos. QCOM @ 24+, 1/3 pos. ALSC @ 6+, 1/3 pos. NYFX @ 8- ?, 1/3 pos. CGNX @ 19, 1/3 pos. ADPT @ 8-, 1/2 pos. BKI. @ 9.6, 1/2 pos. PSEM @ 10++, 1/2 pos. LMNX @ 6+, 1/3 pos. HRP @ 8++ (ck. div.), 1/2 pos. COHR @ 26+, 1/2 pos. AMD @ 8, 1/2 pos. EXAR @ 18, 1/4 pos. NOK @ 12+, 1/3 pos. IMI @ 18+, 1/4 pos. VOD @ 13-, CHL @ 14+, 1/3 pos. ADTN @ 18+ fobd,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): 1/3 pos. MMTRE @ 26 (ck. div.), 1/3 pos. TIBX @ 5- fobd, 1/3 pos. SWC @ 15-, CPRT @ 16- eh nah, 1/3 pos. HTCH @ 14+, PACW @ 0.40+, 1/2 pos. BABY @ 4, RCOM @ 7, NT @ 14-, NTIQ @ 18++, ELON @ 11+ pok ?, SIEB bd ? no, WPI. nah ?...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, SFA, CZN, AW, GTW, ACTU, NOVL, URI, DVSA, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops ....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
1/3 pos. OXY @ 30, TLM @ 45, 1/2 pos. ODSY @ 36+, 1/2 pos. KBH @ 53-, 1/2 pos. GCI. @ 77, 1/3 pos. WTSLA @ 25, 1/3 pos. ZMH @ 36, 1/2 pos. CHBS @ 43+, 1/2 pos. LIZ @ 32 ?, 1/3 pos. MMM @ 129, 1/2 pos. FCN @ 25, 1/3 pos. NFB @ 40, 1/3 pos. FO @ 55+,
"Repeats":
1/2 pos. ZBRA @ 57+, 1/3 pos. DVN @ 50, 1/3 pos. PNR @ 49+, 1/2 pos. WY @ 65+, 1/3 pos. K. @ 36+, 1/3 pos. TIN @ 59-, 1/3 pos. LZB @ 29-, 1/3 pos. SWBT @ 36, 1/3 pos. SBUX @ 25+, PGR @ 59+, 1/3 pos. ASO @ 22+, 1/2 pos. BLC @ 24, 1/3 pos. TMA @ 20+, 1/3 pos. SPF @ 35+, 1/2 pos. PTSI. @ 26, MCRS @ 29+, UB @ 49-, GDW @ 70-, XTO @ 20+,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, RAH, PDS, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit ....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", IN, DCLK, FDRY, JOYG, MEDC, TUNE, TWK, ELNK, COLT, JHF, JPM, AGU, CUM, CPN, MRO, TWK, SAP, CCBL, POWI, SNDK, QSFT, SONE, WEBX, VMSI, UTEK, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, YUM, USAI, FDC, AZO, CLX, KKD, PG, NE, RYL, CHS, CSC, ASYT, PDS, DLTR, COF, WB, ECL, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
ALSC 7.20 up 0.90, AXA 18+ up 2, MENT 14.55 up 1.60, CGNX 20.70 up 2.15, LAVA 16.85 up 1.11, NYFX 9 up 1, DRIV 9.50 up 1.38, THER 18.55 up 1.44, LMNX 8.15, IMI. 20.45, VOD 13.97, NOK 14.77, ADTN 20.25, ADPT 8., IMI. 20.72, COHR 30.10, EXAR 20.26, BPUR 8.11, higher since last NL here....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or more Bounces after pullbacks:
NTIQ 17.70, 23.34 nice, 21.50, WPI. 25.57 up 1.12, MIPS 6.70, 6.06 bopb, IVGN 33.71, PACW 0.43 (B), 0.48, 0.42 (B), PSEM 10.58 (B), 11.70, NT 1.31 fobd (B), 1.57, BKI. 9.53 pb (B), ADTN 18.90 pb, bopb, ELON 11.33 (B), 13.00, COHR 27 pb, bopb, EXAR 18.25 pb, bopb, AXA 17.72 pb, ASLC 6.74 pb, TIBX 4.92 (B), 5.70, 4.95, IMI. 19.27 pb, NOK 13.24 pb, SUN 34.70 pb, ADPT 7.53 pb (B), ETS 1.78, 1.53, CGNX 18.97 (B), ORCL 8.65 pb, LMNX 6.22 pb, DRIV 8.52 pb, AMD 9.70, 8.53 bopb, MENT....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?)
LNUX 0.92 up 0.15, CHL, PWER, VOD 12.85 fobd ? (B) ?, ATML 6.32, 5.30 bd ?, HTCH 14.70 (B), CPRT eh, RFMD wow, BABY 3.94 (B), 4.36, 4.03, SIEB 3.56 bd ? (S) ?, 3.86, KANA (S), MDTH 16, 18, 15.35 (S) ?, THER 15.67 (S) ?, MONE, WPI. 23.18 ms, RCOM 7.80, 6.97 (B) ?, ACPW 4.05, 3.11 (S), NYFX....and it seems the DJ. Trans. Avg. formed a fobd, 2550, then 2750....as did, MEDC 10, 14, NTIQ 17, 23, NT, AMRI 18, 23, MANU 4.43, 6.24, etc.
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
ODSY +1 3/4 (B), -5 1/2, ZBRA -4 1/2 (S) ?, BDX -4 (S), CHBS -4, GCI. -4, MCRS -3 3/4, PTSI. -3 1/2, MMM -3 1/2, TMA -3, WTSLA -3, KBH -3, MYG -2 3/4, SWBT -2 1/2, ZMH -2 1/2, SPF +1, -2 1/2, CEC -2 (S), WY -2, PNR -1 1/2, MTX -2, LIZ -2, IFIN -2 1/4, WTSLA -1, JRC -1, FCN -1, FO -1, TLM -1 1/4, NFB, OXY, lower, since last NL here....while, ACV.A, ANN, CLX, LH, EAT, MCRS, fell to/towards their 200 DMA....and, EMMS 18-, IGEN 31, MRVL 20-, IDXC 12, KKD 30, FBN 30, EPD 16+, CL 46, LLY 53, RTN, down even further....neat....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
** in lieu of IGR here, just do those below, they tend to be depr. techs, telecoms, biotechs, some blue chips, energy-relateds, internets, etc. No need to give specific IG's here....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added even more:
added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
note how many previously-given 'fobd's' are being re-added !
CCUR, FTE, CAL, DAL, AAPL, AMHC opb, CSCO eh, CWP, ILA, ELNK opbo, AGU, CSCO eh, WDC opbo, CPN opbo ?, CY ?, NWAC, NTIQ, QSFT, CCBL, MCSI. ?, SONE, VRTX ?, MEDC, XRX no ?, QCOM ?, to, F opbo, NOK, AXA ny ?, MEE, MXO, PB, PKD opbo, IMI, ADTN, ALSC, ADPT, CREE opb, MONE, EXTR opbo, EXAR, LTBG nah, VLCCF fobd ?, MROI, RCGI, WGRD fobd ?, COLT opb, SCMR, LNUX opb, OAKT, UIS, COHR, MENT, ZIXI, VICR ny, EFII. ?, CGNX, AVT opbo, HRP, VOD eh, MMTRE, MCDT ?, ELON bd ? (B) ?, CRXA, FDRY opb, MCAF, HTCH, NYFX, LMNX, INET, MTLGE, PDII, TIBX, ET no, JBL ?, SWC, SRP obpbo, BKI, AES, SUN opbo, MDTH no, SFD, THER no, CHL, VRTY, IMCO, ELC opbo, RCOM, BPUR, UAL, BABY, WFII, RAD ny, TOY opb, KM, ETS opbo, PSEM nah ?,
as EVB's or double-bottoms or bases....
and, I am not crazy about them, but a few Tobacco stocks may be EVB's, for a s.t. -only bounce anyway....
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
added, LNCR, CKR ?, ASYT, AZO, ELK, AME, TOL, WB, CEO, SLM, CHS ?, BDK ?, COF, LIZ, AET, FO, KBH, CECO, DLTR, LNCR ?, CHBS, to, WTSLA, K, NFB, LZB, WY, ZMH, TLM, FCN, PGR, UNP, SII, MMM, PII. ?, OXY, GUC, IP, TIN, XRAY, SWBT, SBUX ?, WBST, ULAB, USTR, ODSY, HUG, FRED, PNRA, ECL, ACV.A, GCI, BSG, THC, TKTX, BLC, MNTR, SWBT, CYN, CNI, DF, FDP, LM, KMB, PNR, PG, TCB, UB, ETM, LEA, ASO, GISX, AZO, CXR, WHR, CNF, TMA, FITB, TOM, AVY, DVN, TREE, BMS, RML, PBI, WAG, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops:
added, Extended: (some may be fobo's, as bove, so tread lightly)
Paper/Wood, consumer products and cosmetics and personal care, to, internet e-commerce (S.T. only), Banks, machinery/cap. goods/makers, auto parts, retail, containers, travel, comp. software, auto/truck/OEM, optical character recognition, energy, home-related/furnishings, retail and all clothes/apparel, shoes, security, restaurants, Comp./Educ. co's., Peripherals, Security, temp. staffing, Pollution-related, Aero./Def., "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', Insur./some Banks/Mtg./S & L's/Loans, 'extendeds only' within Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, most types of Media/newspapers/tv, Funeral, extended-only Food, and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
general note: as per my teachings, WITHIN some industry groups, there
may be bpth, extendeds, and depresseds, as recently, certainly normal....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES