Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, ended formally, back in early April 2000, with issue # 207+, a while ago....so/but this NL is Not really being actually published formally, publically, any more, and has not been, for quite a while now ....I just wanted a place to keep track of what I said, and would have said and would have done and felt, employing my concepts, since I was forced undeservedly to stop my NL, in April, 2000 - if only I had been able to continue my mostly exceptional output to the mass audience who has deserved to receive and take advantage of it, all this time....So, this missive is ONLY for MY own internal edification and proof of the value of my output and concepts to others), and anyone reading this has NOT gotten it from me....just internal, and to make me feel good about myself, period....

dated: 11:00 am, PST , Friday, July 5 th, 2002


"2002: a Trading Palindrome"


or, "The Patterns Rarely Change"

Important Note: this serious, honest, very valuable "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, since March/April, 2000, due to the too-often at least semi-gestapo, uncaring, ridiculous, illogical, NASD/SEC rules, and the uncaring, inconsiderate, unenlightened, self-serving more than client-serving, and thoughtless nature of most all brokerage firms....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, here, twice each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance, very-long-term track record, FOR MYSELF ONLY, and to offer further significant, in-advance, in-writing, 'proof' of the value and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

Ah, ye of little faith, got exactly what expected, Wed./Fri., even given some continuing disappointing QSL's of little damage, longside (many of which were not even 1/2 pos.), balanced by QLG's among Puttables you have been taking advantage of all along....preserving capital while 'doing' mostly correct things, yes ? and culling longside list lately is certainly going to make our next bunch of Gainers easier to effect, yes ?

You know, I have dedicated my whole career to educating people and illustrating endlesly, the folly of doing things the way 'the 95 %' have hoistprically done, in this important endeavor....it has been disappointing beyond measure, that more people have not taken even the short time needed to glean all I have shared over the decades....

Also note, more Puts Gainers approached their 200 DMA initial downside support, yes ? see sec. (5) again, and learn the pattern once and oforever, free, my gift to you ! while some remain puttable, the key VERY recently was, of course, to have been accumulating my longs near lows, yes ? if not, why not ? learn the patterns, profit semi-constantly....

and, more probable sentiment good news forward, longside, as at the very recent Morningstar Natl. Conference, with its record 1,300 attendees, saw almost unanimous bearish comments constantly, dig ? whew....even better, it was suggested that the FP's there 'consider the bearish comments seriously, before dismissing them" - and these people get paid for whatever ?

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) interestingly, the Orange County 100, Calif. stocks index, has outperformed the NASDAQ and the S & P, since 4/1/02, down 'only' 5-10 %, vs. -20 % and -15 %.. .. 2) as mentioned recently, might the SMH semi. index form a dobule-bottom, while the 95 % who only love them high, and hate them now, miss them again ? we won't miss them - review my way-above-avg. L.T. past T.R. with these stocks ! ....3) note predicted here first/only d.b. among Smeis, hope you got in....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Govt., etc.:
1) a totally BS guy, Jim Collins, who just wrote a book on 'building a superior business - going from "good to great"', gave ridiculous hackneyed examples, from just the recent period-years, without going back decades, so he didn't provide truly historical info. of FPPV, a real shame....was on CNBC, Wed. 9:35....God, I wish, just once, CNBC or the Genl. Finl. Media would actually share FPPV factors well, so the masses could avail themselves of it and help the country and the world....well, enuf soapboxing....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) as the Dow rises +300 plus p[oints, I stillhear idiot analysts still espousing 'linking a lower dollar (which none o fthem predicted, dgms) to lower stocks prices'....have they not learned my "PSYCLE sm"....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) ?

e) more general, political, misreported items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ...

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....

"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:


still more quick, large % Gains:
0 more Longs, and,
2 more Puts:
as you have always done, please read them and VIEW their charts carefully, to learn patterns

1/2 pos. puts CBM (44 to 36+) for Q % Gain....1/2 pos. puts ACV.A (51 to 42) for Q % G....bal. puts FSS ?, bal. stk.on.mgn. DRIV, for big % G....

and/but, longs, NYFX, BKI, SWC, VOD, WPI, SIEB, MDTH, THER, ATML, UAL ?, ADTN sto, and, puts, , for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:

(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs): **** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol, if I have time:
again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:
1/3 pos. CSCO @ 12+, 1/2 pos. SMH @ 27++, and, MCSI. @ 10+, ALSC @ 6+, VMSI. @ 18+, JBL @ 18, 1/3 pos. MROI. @ 10+, 1/4 pos. ILA @ 7+, 1/3 pos. CCBL @ 5+, 1/3 pos. SCMR @ 3+, 1/43 pos. PLUG @ 6 3/4,
1/2 pos. UAL @ 9+, 1/3 pos. AXA @ 16, 1/4 pos. KM no, 1/2 pos. MENT @ 13, the NASDAQ index under 1,400- fobd, 1/4 pos. LNUX @ 0.80-, 1/3 pos. MONE @ 5, 1/3 pos. PB @ 14 ?,

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): BPUR @ 6++, 1/2 pos. THER @ 16+, 1/4 pos. QCOM @ 24+, 1/3 pos. ALSC @ 6+, 1/3 pos. CGNX @ 19, 1/2 pos. PSEM @ 10++, 1/2 pos. LMNX @ 6, 1/3 pos. HRP @ 8++ (ck. div.), 1/2 pos. COHR @ 26+, 1/2 pos. AMD @ 8, 1/2 pos. EXAR @ 18-, 1/4 pos. NOK @ 12+, 1/3 pos. IMI @ 18+, CHL @ 14+, 1/3 pos. MMTRE @ 26 (ck. div.), 1/3 pos. TIBX @ 5- fobd, SUN @ 34+, CPRT @ 16- eh nah, 1/3 pos. HTCH @ 14+, PACW @ 0.40+, 1/2 pos. BABY @ 4, RCOM @ 7, NT @ 1.40-, NTIQ @ 18++, ELON @ 11+ ...."buy (only) low", right ?

** Important: took, EFII. ?, UIS fobd ?, SFD, OPWV, CAL, DAL, AMHC, CY, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops ....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops:
1/3 pos. UNP @ 65,
1/3 pos. OXY @ 30, TLM @ 45, 1/2 pos. ODSY @ 36+, 1/2 pos. KBH @ 53-, 1/2 pos. GCI. @ 77, 1/3 pos. WTSLA @ 25, 1/3 pos. ZMH @ 36, 1/2 pos. CHBS @ 43+, 1/2 pos. LIZ @ 32 ?, 1/2 pos. FCN @ 25, 1/3 pos. NFB @ 40, 1/3 pos. FO @ 55+,

"Repeats":
1/2 pos. ZBRA @ 57+, 1/3 pos. PNR @ 49+, 1/3 pos. LZB @ 29-, 1/3 pos. SWBT @ 36, 1/3 pos. SBUX @ 25+, 1/3 pos. ASO @ 22+, 1/2 pos. BLC @ 24, 1/3 pos. TMA @ 20+, 1/2 pos. PTSI. @ 26,

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit ....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", NWAC ?, OAKT, PB, WGRD, EXTR, AAPL, AVT, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, LNCR, ECL, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):

**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).



acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn the pattern:
TIBX 5.94 up 1.13, ELON 13.39 up 1.31, CSCO 14.10 up 1.57, AMD 9.35 up 0.82, SMH 31.59 up 4.33, ALSC 7.22 up 1.00, NOK 15.15 up 2.28, PLUG 7.66 up 1.08, HTCH 16.33 up 1.60, CCBL 6.25 up 0.70, JBL 20.81 up 2.94, IMI. 19.42 yp 0.92, EXAR 19.60 up 1.80, SCMR 3.60 up 0.33, QCOM 28.63 up 4, BPUR 7.20 up 0.70, MENT 13.97 up 1.18, the NASDAQ 1448 up 58, CGNX 20.85 up 1.33, ORCL 10., UAL 10+, MCSI. 11, higher since last NL here....

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and/or more Bounces after pullbacks:

IMI. 18.50 pb, bopb, SUN 35.66 up 1.22, NTIQ 20.48, 21.72, ELC 1.25 pb, COHR 26.16, 28.60, LMNX 5.92 pb (B), 6.52, AXA 16 (B) bms, PSEM 10.81 pb (B) ?, MONE 5.02 (B), 5.86.... some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....


and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:

(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?)
ADPT 7.01 bd ? (S) ?, LNUX, CHL, PWER, HTCH (B), CPRT eh, EXAR 17.51 fobd ?, 18.49, RFMD wow, MONE 5.12, 5.50, HRP 8.60 pb, RCOM 6.84 fobd ? (B) ?, TOY 15.62 fobd ?, 16.95....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, stick around:

Puttables specifically given you herein, which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out to learn:
ACV.A -3, WY -2 1/2, PGR -2, IFIN -2, UNP -2 1/4, PNR -2 1/2, DF -2, TIN -2, MI. -1 1/4, CBM -1 1/2, SPF -1 1/2, K. -1 1/2, MNTR -1 1/2, MMM -1 1/2, PFGC -1 1/4, KMB -1 1/2, OXY, TLM, lower, since last NL here....while, ECL, ACV.A, BLC, WY, CBH, TIN, WAG, MNTR, KMB, approached/hit/below their 200 DMA....

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
: TIN, BAC, FCN, PNR, UB -1, AG, SII, SYY, MI, CUNO, KMB, ASO, CBH sow, CMA -1 1/2, ONE, CBSH, TOM -1, PTSI, DVN -2, XTO, GDW -1....this ends our 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?


some Depressed:
** in lieu of IGR here, just do those below, they tend to be depr. techs, telecoms, biotechs, some blue chips, energy-relateds, internets, etc. No need to give specific IG's here....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over each weekend....
added even more:

added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
note how many previously-given 'fobd's' are being re-added !
SONE, CCUR, FTE, AAPL, CSCO, CWP, ILA, ELNK opbo, AGU, WDC opbo, CPN opbo ?, NWAC, NTIQ, CCBL, MCSI, SONE, VRTX ?, QCOM ?, to, F. opbo, NOK, AXA ny ?, QSFT, MEE, MXO, PB, PKD opbo, IMI, ALSC, CREE opb, MONE, EXAR, LTBG nah, VLCCF fobd ?, MROI, RCGI. eh, WGRD fobd ?, COLT opb, SCMR, LNUX opb, OAKT, COHR, MENT, ZIXI, VICR ny, EFII. ?, CGNX, AVT opbo, HRP, MMTRE, MCDT ?, ELON, CRXA, FDRY opb, MCAF, HTCH, LMNX, INET, MTLG eh, PDII, TIBX, ET no, JBL ?, SRP obpbo, AES, SUN, CHL, VRTY, IMCO, ELC opbo, RCOM, BPUR, UAL ?, BABY, WFII, RAD ny, TOY opb, KM, ETS opbo, PSEM, PLUG no ?,
as EVB's or double-bottoms or bases....

and, I am not crazy about them, but a few Tobacco stocks may be EVB's, for a s.t. -only bounce anyway....

and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....
added, LNCR, CKR ?, ASYT, AZO, ELK, AME, TOL, WB, CEO, SLM, CHS ?, BDK ?, COF, LIZ, AET, FO, KBH, CECO, DLTR, LNCR ?, CHBS, to, WTSLA, K, NFB, LZB, WY, ZMH, TLM, FCN, PGR, UNP, SII, MMM, PII. ?, OXY, GUC, IP, TIN, XRAY, SWBT, SBUX ?, WBST, ULAB, USTR, ODSY, HUG, FRED, PNRA, GCI, BSG, THC, TKTX, BLC, MNTR, SWBT, CYN, CNI, DF, FDP, LM, KMB, PNR, PG, TCB, UB, ETM, LEA, ASO, GISX, AZO, CXR, WHR, CNF, TMA, FITB, AVY, DVN, TREE, BMS, RML, PBI, WAG, from recent past NL's....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops:

added, Extended: (some may be fobo's, as bove, so tread lightly)
Paper/Wood, consumer products and cosmetics and personal care, to, internet e-commerce (S.T. only), Banks, machinery/cap. goods/makers, auto parts, retail, containers, travel, comp. software, auto/truck/OEM, optical character recognition, energy, home-related/furnishings, retail and all clothes/apparel, shoes, security, restaurants, Comp./Educ. co's., Peripherals, Security, temp. staffing, Pollution-related, Aero./Def., "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', Insur./some Banks/Mtg./S & L's/Loans, 'extendeds only' within Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, most types of Media/newspapers/tv, Funeral, extended-only Food, and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....

general note: as per my teachings, WITHIN some industry groups, there may be bpth, extendeds, and depresseds, as recently, certainly normal....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES