1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

While 'the 95 %' get semi-turned-off again S.T., we continue to pump out mostly OK puttables and most of our longs continue to hang around....aren't you glad you got more Puts recently, and have had some all along ? see section (5) below....

Of interest, and as expected, though B. Schaeffer, its main proponent, has not been VG at timing it properly compared to many others of us, the "volatility indexes' (QQV amd VIX), may be bottoming, after falling since March/April stocks lows....meaning, any further drops from here in depresseds should be 'it' soon.... normally, low readings are bearish, high, bullish....we shall see....

'after the 4 th' certainly found people disinterested....rare, since, historically, a bullish period....the CNBC-ers and NL writers call it 'complacency', but they are wrong, as usual....gotta stay with the patterns, and keep things in proper perspective, vs. painting 'scenarios' or 'anthrpormorphising' one's PSY-chological feelings about things....and I need to see my new chartbooks this weekend before I adjust all the ideas in section (6) below, but trying to do so, topday anyway....meanwhile, 'split' market continues for us....

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) note Techs pulling back as expected.... 2) but, as only I expected, note pops in our newly-added Energy-stocks, with, Thu., ann. that oil inventories shrank a bit finally.... more good news, as Pisani poo-poohed the move, as 'nothing more that a one-day blip in a relentless downtrabned" (that was a quote, folks, Thu. 9:40 am) - so, therefore, you know what to do, yes ? ....3) the same way I was certainly the first/only to give IBM as a put ("oh, Jim, not IBM, never....") from its recent top, I was also first/only to give out the Homebuilding group....and probably, extended Chem., Retail, Banks, Consumer, stocks, etc.

4) obviously, I have not 'newly liked' the Semis lately, vs. all the institutions who just began to buy them, as most reached their initial upside targets as predicted at their previous lows herein for you.... and, similarly, they are not to be shorted down here either, or 'newly bearished'.... they are just traversing a range, and probably buys near lows again ahead.... while the latecomers have losses again.... 5) but I was certainly wrong with some Foreign Telecoms, for VQ, very small loss, no damage at all....was just another group....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) once again, reminding you that the BS reports on CNBC about 'seasonal' stocks, i.e. 'summer stocks, Thu., like, travel, swimwear, lodging, etc., don't get me started), is so misleading and historically incorrect, well, ignore or fade all....re-read my "Scenarios" booklet.... 2) recent L.A.T. chronicled their version of the Ventro (VNTR) story, a B2B dot-com which, as i predicted, made the whole PSYCLE trip, parabolic, then down to near zero, etc., with Media/analysts loving it at top, as usual, another example of my concept at work....with interviewees saying things like, "you could not help but get swept away...." Uh, gee, not us....their pres. was named entrepreneur of the year at the parabolic top....they mislead on revenue figures....they changed co. name at the parabolic top....held big parties at top....and, as usual, they only began to layoff and cutback, after stock was already down a ton....tons of execs failed to sell any stock high on options, etc. In other words, the pattern rarely changes.....they will never learn....so my "PSYCLE sm" may work similarly, forever, thank goodness....

3) more good news, as Bob Pisani, Thu. 9:42 am, also said, "traders are hoping for a summer rally, but I don't see it" (re-read my Bokklets on that BS yearly crap).... 4) Fri. 8:26, CNBC's reporter-ignorant-fgal asked, "why is STI stock down, given it reported all-time high earnings ?", which, as you have seen countless times herein, proves my "PSYCLE sm" yet again....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) normally we eschew fundamentals, but recent article O.C.R., "Faster Net Slow to catch Home users", wrote, "70 % of broadband users at work, never plan to upgrade at home...." Wow. an AOL guy said, "people forget we have added millions of users in recent years who are quite happy stilll, and don't want to add complications"....yup....but, of course, the question is, how come all the overpaid Internet analysts failed to foresee/predict this trend even-near their stocks tops, as I did ? ....they cited a recent poll, which found that, even after trying high-speed internet svcs., people are still willing to go back to dial-up because of price diff. - hmmmmm.... making Orange County, Calif. unusual, in that, here, COX says 35 % of cable users are on high-speed svc.

2) as usual, only after stock already dropped from $ 60 to 36, now Nike loses an NFL contract and they layoff some workers....learn the PSYCLE pattern.... 3) we don't 'do' fundamentals, much, but a sharp guy from W.R. Hambright, on CNBC Fri. 8:36, not really recommending AWE as L.T. takeover, said, "in Europe, wireless penetration use nears 70 %, but in the U.S.A. only 40 %, leaving plenty of upside potential for the whole group" - I agree, as you know, but I have been VG tinming theses stocks, and he has not, but at least we now also have some fundamentals coming, remember, we are likely to be the first in near lows, yes ?

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) another in a long line of useless Bond analyst guys, on CNBC, Thu. 10 am, failed to make a point, when, in fact, most all Bond Funds-type investments have, in historical reality, failed to outperform even-moderately-chosen equities....callers-in all complained about being sold a bill of goods by broker firms, always touting Bonds AFTER rates have fallen, only to lose princip[al thereafter....exactly as I have been teaching dor years, except at occasional turns I have precited over the years, for S.T. periods only....but article, O.C. R., "Junk Bonds risky as ever, but could be worth it", gets kudos, as I recently reported first herein, because the 'extra yield spread' over Treasuries is super-high, and covers some of the risk over forward years, dig ? Plus, as I said before, many big Techs will survive, and their bonds are possibly underpriced, dig ? This falls on deaf ears, I am sure....but perhaps L.T. convertibles ? (I am expert on those as well)....we shall see....Moodys said 40 % of their junk rated bonds carry B3 ratings or lower, up from 30 % three years ago....of course, as expected in the PSYCLE, Moodys and S & P faoiled to pforesee this when those stocks were near tops, get it ? they, and most ratings, remain semi-useless, as they have been for decades....of little of no "D.A.F.P.P>V.", right ? last, they said, $ 9.5 B. of bonds have been issued in 2001 so far, by "B2"-rated or lower companies, not bad when you think about it....gotta be a place in every parge port. for these, yes ?

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) dammit: recently, exactly as I was first/only to predict herein a while ago, vehemently, now all these news articles and reports are coming out, saying trhat the supposed 'budget surplus' is already 'disappearing' - of course, I maintained it never existed, remember ? 'nuff said....once again, think fo the $ I could/would make/save millions of people and our govt., if they only had/will listen to me, ay ? recent BS headline, "Democrats see dip in surplus as a bad sign"....gee, ya think ? they should all be eliminated.... 2) it just gets potentially worse: Thu., CNBC reported congress trying to pass new law about investment choices within pension plancs - get this - sponsored BY the M. Funds ind. itself....gee, no conflict there....they would NOT entertain notion of having an independent-3rd-party help....Where do these people get off ? next.... 3) similarly, 6/23 L.A.T., "M. Funds wary of overhaul of Soc. Sec. system", mentioned Treasury SEcretary Paul O'Nell discussing a potential $ 90 B. annual investement of Soc. Sec. taxes into financial stock markets....The M. Fund co's. stood him up, and did not show up at appointment....the Funds fear, and logically so, Govt. interference with the free-market system (an oxymoron, but I dogress), regqrding servicing abilities of accounts, overregulation, administrative problems, overhead, and, of course they said, how much will M. Fund co's. get for doing this - uh huh....next....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....