1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) interestingly, the Orange County 100, Calif. stocks index, has outperformed the NASDAQ and the S & P, since 4/1/02, down 'only' 5-10 %, vs. -20 % and -15 %.. .. 2) as mentioned recently, might the SMH semi. index form a dobule-bottom, while the 95 % who only love them high, and hate them now, miss them again ? we won't miss them - review my way-above-avg. L.T. past T.R. with these stocks ! ....3) note predicted here first/only d.b. among Smeis, hope you got in.... 4) and a potential biggie, as 'the nyse's defensive index' of consumer, cosmetic, personal care stocks, is no longer Puttable....neither seems textile nor restaurants, note.... 5) should we be watching for cash Gold to break below its 10-day MA around $ 310 soon ?
6) and for you stock fans remaining, i also found some seeming 'handles/ high-level-consolidation pattern' potential longs, in sec. (6).... 7) since I have been so good at timing 'bond/I.R.' moves, looks like s.t. bottom in yields here, 10-yr. t-bond around 4.7 % , as I recently inferred....take advantage....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Govt.,
etc.:
1) a totally BS guy, Jim Collins, who just wrote a book on 'building a superior business - going from "good to great"', gave ridiculous hackneyed examples, from just the recent period-years, without going back decades, so he didn't provide truly historical info. of FPPV, a real shame....was on CNBC, Wed. 9:35....God, I wish, just once, CNBC or the Genl. Finl. Media would actually share FPPV factors well, so the masses could avail themselves of it and help the country and the world....well, enuf soapboxing....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) as the Dow rises +300 plus p[oints, I stillhear idiot analysts still espousing 'linking a lower dollar (which none o fthem predicted, dgms) to lower stocks prices'....have they not learned my "PSYCLE sm".... 2) an actually possibly correct front-page L.A.T. aerticle recently, "seller's market tightens as homeowners won't let go....owners reluctant to let go of their proerty are contributing to a shortage of homes foe sale in Calif., only 2.1 months inventory, vs. 7.3 months-worth in early 1998...sellers cannot find better homes for lower prices anywhere anyway, and many do not want to fix-up others.....number of listings have dropped 33% and more....prices rising 6-straight months at a double-digit rate...."
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) more good news for our Longsiders, as Multex and more NL's are still bearish....and, B.S. guys actually vastly incorrectly wrote, "low volume on exp[losive rallies are bearish", which I have proven herein over the years is so untrue - but good for us....
e) more general, political, misreported items proving
why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) 2 correct non-industry, non-politicos, on CNBC, Tue. 9 am, confirmed how much of a waste Bush's dramatic statement about supposedly 'solving the corporate crook-dom problems' is....he neither addressed, nor will probably ever do, anything even remotely to help this inherently- ingrained-in-human-nature-and-the-investment-and-American-business-system situation, which I have been exposing for 25 years now, to no effect....also, don;t expect the SEC or NASD to solve anything either....as i have taught/believed forever, the re is little fairness, and reward/punishment have rarely been properly effected, worldwide....dgms....Bush himself and all high-level pols and their many cronies ARE and have always BEEN the problem, major-league crooks, abusing the system themselves many times, etc., dig ? so how can we expect them to enact things which would hurt everything they have greedily gotten, dig ? next....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better,
and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains:
1 more Longs, and,
1 more Puts:
as you have always done, please read them and VIEW their charts carefully, to learn patterns
1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. ORCL (7++ to 10) for Q % Gain....1/2 pos. puts EAT (36- to 31-) for % G....1/2 pos. puts ODSY (35+ to 29-) for VQ % G....
and/but, longs, ILA, PSEM, MROI. ?, UAL ?, and, puts, CHBS, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not
on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
again, "just get real close" to
suggested prices:
1/3 pos. XRX @ 6, TER @ 20+, PDII. @ 13++, 1/2 pos. POWI. @ 15+, 1/3 pos. EFII. @ 16-, 1/3 pos. ARMHY @ 6-,and, NSCN ?, MINI. ?, NANO ?, PDII. ?, SEBL ?, SMMX ?, JCP ?,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): 1/3 pos. CSCO @ 12+, 1/2 pos. SMH @ 27++, and, MCSI. @ 10+, ALSC @ 6+, VMSI. @ 18+, JBL @ 18, 1/3 pos. CCBL @ 5+, 1/3 pos. SCMR @ 3+, 1/3 pos. PLUG @ 6 3/4, 1/4 pos. NWAC @ 10+, 1/2 pos. TER @ 20, 1/2 pos. UAL @ 9+, 1/3 pos. AXA @ 16- ?, the NASDAQ index under 1,400- fobd, 1/4 pos. LNUX @ 0.70+, 1/3 pos. MONE @ 5 eh, 1/3 pos. PB @ 14 ?, BPUR @ 6++, 1/4 pos. QCOM @ 24+, 1/3 pos. ALSC @ 6+, 1/3 pos. CGNX @ 19, 1/2 pos. LMNX @ 6, 1/3 pos. HRP @ 8++ (ck. div.), 1/2 pos. COHR @ 26+, 1/2 pos. AMD @ 8, 1/2 pos. EXAR @ 18-, 1/4 pos. NOK @ 12+, 1/3 pos. IMI @ 18+, CHL @ 14+, 1/3 pos. MMTRE @ 26 (ck. div.), 1/3 pos. TIBX @ 5- fobd, SUN @ 34+, CPRT @ 16- eh nah, 1/3 pos. HTCH @ 14+, PACW @ 0.40+, 1/2 pos. BABY @ 4, RCOM @ 7, NT @ 1.40-, RCOM @ 7-, NTIQ @ 18++, TOY @ 16, ELON @ 11+...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, QSFT, UIS no, fobd ?, CAL, KM, SMT, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops ....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
1/3 pos. UNP @ 65, MMM @ 130-, ASYT oso,
1/3 pos. OXY @ 30, TLM @ 45, 1/2 pos. ODSY @ 36+, 1/2 pos. KBH @ 53-, 1/2 pos. GCI. @ 77, 1/3 pos. WTSLA @ 25, 1/3 pos. ZMH @ 36, 1/2 pos. LIZ @ 32 ?, 1/2 pos. FCN @ 25, 1/3 pos. NFB @ 40, 1/3 pos. FO @ 55+,
"Repeats":
1/2 pos. ZBRA @ 57+, 1/3 pos. PNR @ 49+, 1/3 pos. LZB @ 29-, 1/3 pos. SWBT @ 36, 1/3 pos. SBUX @ 25+, 1/3 pos. ASO @ 22+, 1/2 pos. BLC @ 24, 1/3 pos. TMA @ 20+, 1/2 pos. PTSI. @ 26, UB osas,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, LNCR, XRAY, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit ....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", EXTR, AFCI, ET, MHR, INHL, HOFF, MCDT, CREE, COHU, EFII, APCC, ADIC, AXTI, SNDK, QSFT, SEBL, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CECO, DLTR, COF, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
TIBX 5.96 up 1.15, CCBL 6.92 up 1.37, BPUR 7.93 up 1.43, ELON 13.98 up 1.90, CSCO 14.19 up 1.66, AMD 9.54 up 1.00, SMH 31.80 up 4.54, VMSI. 22.00 up 3.66, ALSC 7.22 up 1.00, NOK 15.55 up 2.68, PLUG 8.00 up 1.42, HTCH 16.33 up 1.60, TER 22.70 up 2.90, JBL 20.81 up 2.94, NWAC 11.48 up 1.18, IMI. 19.42 up 0.92, EXAR 19.60 up 1.80, SCMR 3.60 up 0.33, QCOM 28.63 up 4, BPUR 7.20 up 0.70, PDII. 14.70 up 1.45, MENT 13.97 up 1.18, the NASDAQ 1448 up 58, CGNX 21.15 up 1.63, ORCL 10.08, UAL 10+, ELON 13.98, EFII. 16+, higher since last NL here....
as expected, given super-strong Fri., got some pb's:
:
ELC 1.20, 1.55, IMI. 18.40 pb, bopb, SUN 35.66 up 1.22, NTIQ 20.48, 21.72, COHR 26.16, 28.60, LMNX 5.92 pb (B), 6.52, AXA 16 (B) bms, EXAR 18.28 pb, MONE 5.02 (B), 5.86, PACW 0.40 (B), 0.48, 0.42, AMD 8.85 pb, QCOM 27 pb, CGNX 19.95 PB, SMH 29+ pb, ELON 13.30, TER 21.38 pb, PLUG 7.43 pb, ALSC 6.60 pb, bopb....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?)
ADPT 7.01 bd ? (S) ?, 8.22, 7.50, LNUX 0.71 (B), CHL, PWER, HTCH (B), CPRT eh, 15.00, 16.50, TER 19.90 (B) bms, MCSI. 10.26 bd ?, SLNK 9.70 bd ?, EXAR 17.51 fobd ?, 18.49, RFMD wow, MONE 5.12, 5.50, HRP 8.60 pb, RCOM 6.84 fobd ? (B), 7.52, TOY 15.62 fobd (B), 16.97, AXA 16-, MENT 14, 9, 10, oy....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
ODSY +1 1/2, -5 1/4, UNP -2 5/8, SBUX -1 5/8, FCN -1, TLM -1, EAT -1, OXY, lower, since last NL here....while, NEM, ABX, RKY, EAT, approached/hit/below their 200 DMA....and, YUM 36, 26, SPW 90, LGND 10, even lower still....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
** in lieu of IGR here, just do those below, they tend to be depr. techs, telecoms, biotechs, some blue chips, energy-relateds, internets, etc. No need to give specific IG's here....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added even more:
added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
note how many previously-given 'fobd's' are being re-added !
many more, take your pick on pb's to recenbt lows:
TER, HI, FLM, FOX, SLR ?, HI. eh, CDN, CVC ?, REI., SWS, TI, SI, TEU ?, BVC, RMD, DLP, HLTH eh, TRKN, SMMX, WEBM ?, NSCN, STEL, THQI, NITE, ISSX, HELX, FMKT, ARMHY, SKIL, POWI, PWER, RSYS, GLGC ?, NANO, MLNM ny, MINI. ?, ORLY, ISIL ?, INHL, IDCC, PECS, SEBL eh, SSTI, ADIC, AXTI, CIMA, to, SONE, CCUR, FTE ?, AAPL, CSCO, CWP, ELNK opbo, AGU, WDC opbo, CPN opbo ?, NWAC, NTIQ, CCBL, MCSI, SONE, VRTX ?, QCOM ?, F. opb, NOK, AXA ny ?, MEE, MXO, PB, IMI, ALSC, CREE opb, MONE, EXAR, VLCCF fobd ?, MROI, RCGI. eh, WGRD fobd ?, COLT opb, SCMR, LNUX opb, OAKT, COHR, ZIXI, VICR ny, EFII. ?, CGNX, AVT opbo, HRP, MMTRE, MCDT ?, ELON, AGU, CRXA, FDRY opb, EXTR, IMCO, MCAF, HTCH, LMNX, INET, MTLG eh, PDII, TIBX, ET yes, JBL, SRP obpbo, AES, SUN, CHL, VRTY, IMCO, ELC opbo, RCOM, BPUR, UAL ?, BABY, WFII, RAD ny, ETS opbo, PLUG, TOY, GT, XRX, MRO,
as EVB's or double-bottoms or bases....
and, I am not crazy about them, but a few Tobacco stocks may be EVB's, for a s.t. -only bounce anyway....
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
added, STGS, THC oso, to, CKR ?, ASYT, AZO, ELK, AME, TOL, WB, CEO, SLM, CHS ?, BDK ?, COF, LIZ, AET, FO, KBH, CECO, to, WTSLA, K, NFB, LZB, WY, ZMH, TLM, FCN, PGR, UNP, SII, MMM, PII. ?, OXY, GUC, IP, TIN, SWBT, SBUX ?, WBST, ULAB, USTR, ODSY, HUG, FRED, PNRA, GCI, BSG, THC, TKTX, BLC, MNTR, SWBT, CYN, CNI, DF, FDP, LM, KMB, PNR, PG, TCB, UB, ETM, LEA, ASO, GISX, AZO, CXR, WHR, CNF, TMA, FITB, AVY, DVN, TREE, BMS, RML, PBI, WAG, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops:
added, Extended: (some may be fobo's, as bove, so tread lightly)
Paper/Wood, to, internet e-commerce (S.T. only), Banks, machinery/cap. goods/makers, auto parts, many but not all retail, containers, auto/truck/OEM, optical character recognition, energy services only (eh), home-related/furnishings, clothes/apparel, shoes, security, Comp./Educ. co's., Peripherals, Security, temp. staffing, Pollution-related, Aero./Def., "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', Insur./some Banks/Mtg./S & L's/Loans, 'extendeds only' within Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, most types of Media/newspapers/tv, Funeral, extended-only Food, and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
general note: as per my teachings, WITHIN some industry groups, there
may be bpth, extendeds, and depresseds, as recently, certainly normal....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES