1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) TDR calls for a 'bond bubble', since "people are so desparate for yield - any yield - they gobbled up GM's recent $ 17 B. BS offering.... 2) as I was, as usual, among the first few/only to predict, August Crude Oil rose to just over $ 31, you're welcome.... 3) and the t-bond yield now up to 3.65 %, nice pop, ay ? . but B4 U get bearish on bonds only now (dgms), know that yield-resistance lies not far above recent levels, dig ?, if anything, yields should FALL again ahead, but not break below recent lows, yes ? ...4) you got yet another takeover, as VFC t/o NAUT @ $ 17, you're welcome, see the previous base ?, the pattern rarely changes....
5) some oil svc. stocks looks interesting lower as pot. longs, but will wait.... 6) well, the Asian stocks are unanimously up against 200 DMA/resistance, as other non-Asian stocks seem 2 B, so while they are all being only-now newly touted (the pattern, yes ?), you should be lightening up still in all of the oones in that coidition.... 7) and, I was correct, then qsl, then correct, then qsl, on the extended Homebldg./manu. hsg. I.G., puttable, and buyable, then puttable, etc. - now, they do truly look s.t. toppy again, as usual, I will be the first/only seeing so....ditto with extended Clothing and Biotechs ....btw, seeing more Insider Sales spreading from Comp./Internet/Networking/S'w Techs, now into these I.G.'s, hmmmmm.... 8) unsure Putting the Trans. Avg., but stil looks pot. toppy in mid-2500's ? ....9) the DJTA rose too much, only because of merger between YELL/ROAD, eh....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Govt.,
etc.:
1) in perfect "PSYCLE sm" stage 4 nbuance, only Thu. did CNBC highlight MOGN (which I gave out herein near lows recall, ho-hum), as "a real comer" - get it ?, as the pattern rarely changes....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) do....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) permas-l.t.-bear G. Tice, says the Nikkei 'breakout" (which, recall, I predicted a while ago herein, yes ?, no, as usual, no ears), is BS, and will fail, as our rally will lead to new a.t. lows ahead".... so what else is new....I wonder how his recent-past T.R. has been.... 2) and, what a shock, Gary perma-bear Halbert, InvestorInsight, and the BCA, are again calling for 'a new recession' in 2005 or 2006, so what else is new.... 3) and Erlanger's NL has puzzlingly become a day-trade letter, the usual progression after losing confidence afetr a longer bad-prediction period....and therefore, now, not so valuable, dig ?
e) more general, political, misreported items proving
why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) o....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much
better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of
other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential
emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains:
5 more Longs, neat....
and,
2 more Puts:
as you have always done, please read them carefully and VIEW their charts
carefully, to learn patterns
note, from now on, "s.o.m.", means, 'stock bt. on margin" (hypothetically)
at least 1/2 pos. s.o.m. KAMNA (9+ to 13-) for 80% G....1/2 pos. puts HAL (25- to 22) for VVVQ 44% G....1/2 pos. puts t-bond (120+ to 115) for VVQ big % G....bal. calls SMSC (12+ to 20-) for Q 300% G....1/2 pos. calls IM (10 to 13) for 135 % G....at least 1/2 pos. calls NHP (12+ to 17) for 135% G....bal. stock BEV (2- to 4++) for l.t. 125 % G....1/2 pos. calls CBH (37 to 41-) for VVQ 55 % G....1/2 pos. s.o.m. NSIT (7++ to 11++) for l.t. 100% G....
and/but, longs, JCP, and, , puts, RCL, KWK fobo ?, SNPS, SRCL ?, PX ?, PIXR, LM, AMGN, FDRY, QQQ, CRAY, the COMPX, the DJIA, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio ....but longside a bit upsetting, rare, as U know....and always presages a better period, yes ? are you learning ? if not, why not ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not
on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
again, "just get real close" to
suggested prices:
CMO @ 11+, TNB @ 14+, 1/2 pos. AG @ 16--,
1/3 pos. LFP @ 0.32, 1/3 pos. SGI. @ 1.08, MTON @ 5.1-, 1/3 pos. FFBC @ 15+ fobd, ABY @ 6 3/8, MRN @ 7, 1/3 pos. LOR @ 2.55,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): 1/3 pos. DDS @ 12++, 1/2 pos. POP @ 11-, TTIL @ 4 1/4, 1/4 pos. IM @ 9 5/8, RHT @ 12+, AIV @ 34 fobd, 1/3 pos. SONE @ 3 5/8....and, of course, tons previous here, after they pb, again, yes ? "buy (only) low", right ?,
remember, near major market turns/bottoms, you have been taught many times,
to "stick around and give stocks a bit more leeway, as to 'fobd's', etc.,
continuing to stay in, diversify more, allow for more risk, etc.", yes ? hence
the questions about 'fobd's', and buys that say 'fobd', right ? but some normal,
usual, QSL's still occur and are accepted along the way with no emotion nor
incompleting trading my way, right ? you're welcome....
*** Important: took, HAE , and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
SSP ?, CTL eh, WPPGY @ 43+ ?, LOW @ 45+, and maybe s.t.o. IWD @ 52+, IWV @56++, IWD @ 52++, IVV @ 102, COX soon ?,
BRK.B @ 2500+, FBR @ 14-, GXP @ 29+, 1/2 pos. ENR @ 32-, EXC @ 60+, FOX @ 30, 1/2 pos. CZN @ 13++, 1/2 pos. VRTS @ 29++, KMP soon, 1/3 pos. FLR @ 36-, 1/3 pos. TRB @ 50-, CGNX @ 24, ROIA @ 18+, USAI .@ 39+ no, SEE ?, NFX @ 38, DST @ 38++, 1/3 pos. TGT @ 38 ?, 1/3 pos. puts SMH ?, SFNT @ 30, IRM @ 40-, 1/3 pos. GLG @ 12 ?, ORCL @ 13++, GTK ?, FOX @ 29++ no ? fo ?, THOR @ 14++, DHR @ 71,
"Repeats":
>
SYMC @ 49 ?, MDT bo ?, SUN fobo ?, APCC @ 17 ?, AFCI. @ 19+, PX bo ?, GCI. fo ?, SYK @ 70 ?, BWS @ 30, CB @ 65, RTP @ 85- ?, NFX @ 39+, GLG @ 12, CSL,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, KNGT, WRI, HTLD, ATR, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit ....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", YFC, PLUG, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, MIK, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs (obviously, they were removed from sec. (7)...Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts.... More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., and/or strong(er):
also be sure to VIEW charts of all given winners lately from last few NL's, to
learn the patterns yet again:
BEV 4.97 up 1.64 nice (S), UMC 4.74 up 0.73 sos, LOR 3.24 up 0.38, JNY 32.15 up 2.44, KAMNA 13 (S), CBH 40.63 up 2, SMSC 19.96 up 2.23 (S), AG 16.80 up 1.25, NHP 17.00 sos, CMO 11.76, ADM 13.33, DDS 14.17, AHS 13.55, ABY 6.73, TNB 15.17 up 1.02, NSIT 11.78 up 1.62 sos, CSAR 9.16, IM 13.10 up 1.65 soso, CDWC 50.71 up 3.71 sos, MOT 10.17, MRN 7.40, POP 11.36, LFP 0.36 up 0.05, NHP 17.23, SGI. 1.21, higher since last NL here....also see REVU 7.50 up 2 sos, FALC 7 soso, MTLM 19 wow (S), URGI. 3+, neat....
and, these are either pulling
back, or bouncing after pb's, stick around:
as expected, getting tons of s.t. pb's after giving you so many longside Gains, including:
MRN 7.00 (B), 7.30, SONE 4.25, 4.00 bopbo, AEPI. 7.83 up, TTIL 4.17 (B), 4.52, POP 10.96 pb, bopb, AIV 35.83, 34.65 bopb, POP 10.96, CVTI. 17.12 up, MKT 13.95 up, ABY pb, ....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must strengthen" or
else, yes ?)
HCP ms, ANEN, PNX sos, CLTK, FFBC fo bd ?, ATW 25.75, 26.93....also note GTW 4.35, another fobd, see ? and most everything msf, anyway, yes ? .
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
DJUA -5, NFX -2 1/2, EXC -1 3/8, SNPS, VRTS, DST, WPPGY -1, HAL, BRK.B -125, IVV -1 1/4, the t-bond 115. dn 1 sow, TNX yield up to 3.73 % wow, TYX up to 4.74 %, lower since last NL here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
these must
weaken anew:
note, as mentioned in sec. (2) above, how many puttables popped
back up to potential resistance levels - and some are on verge of breaking
out/up, and some had minor breakouts, poss. fobo's ?, so you're call from here in
those, as usual (pun intended):
PX fo ?, CSL, SFNT +1, ORCL fo, VRTS, DHR + 1 1/4, GCI. -1, SMH +1, CGNX +1, HAL +1 1/2, FLR +1, -1, SYMC +1 1/2, NFX, MDT fobo ?, GLG, CHS, DST, KWK bo (S) ?, FOX +1, AFCI, TGT up, SUN fobo ?, TRMB +1, CB -1, +1....this ends the 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
** in
lieu of IGR here, just do those individual stocks below, they tend to be depr.
techs, telecoms, most/all computer-stuff, biotechs, drugs, cap. goods,
machy/equip., some blue chips, alt.-energy-relateds, internets, etc. No need to
give specific IG's here....except for sec. (2) part (1) above comments, like,
cap. goods/equip./trans. stocks as recent pot. db's, etc.
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added:
added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
note how many
previously-given 'fobd's' are being re-added !
'opbo', means 'on pullback
only', yes ?
I removed a bunch more....then added some fobd's and new ones,
as usual....as you have been taught, be patient and selective:
of course, from
here, most are ONLY on/after pb's, yes ?
still adding some, dig ?:
like:
DRXR, WGRD, SSCC ?, CFB ?, CDE ?, TNL ?, WIN, CMO, RIG ?, DO eh, KSS eh, to, AG, NSC, FNM, CDN, GT, MRN, TNB, APOG, DPMI, MECA, MIMS, PXLW ?, PLUG ?, KLM, STEL, RHB ?, - most obpbo, to, LFP, CVTI., PSSI. eh ?, PIOS, WIT eh, CERS, AGM, SGI, ENZN, GLBL, AKS tln, ABY ny ?, WIN, CBH, SWY ?, PKD obpbo, LPX, IT opbo, AMMD, INFS, INFY ?, COMS obpbo, TTEC eh, CTMI, POP, IHI, NOR obpb, DDS, UMC obpbo, URGI. obpbo, KSU, ISIS ?, MERX eh, SATC, CMO ?, VIRL ?, WEL, NSDA, TNB obpbo, to,
IM, SWC ?, BELM, CSAR ny, RX, PAS, RHT, RDA, CSTR opbo, FFBC ?, BUCA, CLS dbs ?, TTIL, MTON, RGCI. opbo, CWTR, TIBX ?, SWRG, NOVL opbo, HMA, MBVA opbo, SUNW opb, ACSA ?, TRLY opbo, CDT opbo,
all, as EVB's, or double-bottoms, or bases....
and, including, for pot. price rises, plus pot. high-dividends/interest while
you wait ?
added, AHS, CMO ?, GAB opbo, VLCCF ?, and, soon, CC res's 15 %, to, BA res's, KE obpbo, HQH nah, also see sec. (3) above....and, on bigger pb's, res's on, BAX, BMY, we shall see....but all only near recent lows....
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
note, removed still
more, some not listed in sec. (3) above, get it ? what does this tell
you about the future, longside-wise ? again, it helped show us a s.t.
bottom, yes ?
note: as always, because so many patterns have changed, be sure to view
each of these, B4 acting on any !
added, EBAY l.t.d.t. ?, CTL, LXK, SSP, SLB, IWV, IWD, IVV, to, CZN, the DJUA, EXC, GXP, MMM, FBR, BCR ?, AMG, BHI. fo ?, CTX eh, VRTS, VSTA ?, to, DST, COX ?, DJ, EMR ?, KMP, LM, OSK, SEE ?, SYY, IMPC, WWY ?, EXPE, STK, WPPGY ?, TRMB, IMPC, EMR, ROIA, to, DHR, BWS, IRM, APCC, BRK.B, FLR, ORCL ?, FOX bo ?, LOW, GLG, USTR fo ?, NFX, RYAAY ?, TRB fobo ?, SYMC fo ?, SUN ?, KWK no ?, SRCL fo ?, GTRC ?, ECA, PRSP, CSL, PX fo ?, CB, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order,
and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops:
added, Extended: energy-relateds, Transp. Svcs., to,
comp. svcs, comp. educ. Schools, some Media, added, to,
REIT's/RE-homes-bldg.-orienteds, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY,
w/close stops above their patterns highs....but, now, maybe not Regional Banks
nor Newspapers ? this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas
section....
general note: as per my teachings, WITHIN some industry groups, there
may be bpth, extendeds, and depresseds, as recently, certainly normal....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES