1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) boy, everyone is bearish on Techs, etc., again, just like March.... 2) that V.S.T. bottom in Energies only I saw recently, is possibly tradeable, like, AES, HP, CHK, GRP, MRL, PDE, we shall see....also, recent Consensus readings for Energies was only 19 % bulls, dig ? ....3) and, recently a guy at my yoga center, who has not let me help him, but asks me questions (dig ?), said, as if ne knew everything, "know anything about the Euro ? I plan on buying tons at 80. when it bottoms soon...." To which I replied, uh, just your saying that here, guarantees we will not see 80, and it is probably bottoming V.S.T.-anyway, around current 84-85 level", which, of course, he did not understand....this, from a guy who held Techs from highs all the way down, against my help, and refused to even look at me at March?April NASDAQ lows when I tried to help him again....the pattern rarely changes.... next....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) stunningly ingonrantly even for him, Joe Kernan, Mon. 8:20, showing chart of GE stock, said, "that's the best-looking chart of a stock I have ever seen....", and he was dead serious....amazing.... 2) CNCBC's Pat Bolen, Mon. 8:50, actually said, "in a more pedantic industry, if you will, Airline stocks are down a bit...." Uh, excuse me ? where the hell does 'pedantic' enter into anything ? amazing....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) also note new higher highs S.T., in EIX and PCG, two EVB's only I was first to give out herein from their 'sensationalized negative' lows, yes ? more confirmation of my comcepts.... 2) headline L.A.T. front-page, "Disney hopes to revive magic by selling more stuff", to which I say, well, duh....why are they even publishing such drivel ? and what an obvious item anyway....oh, yeah, local co.
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) as usual, all the B-firms just came out with negative ratings on 'storage' and 'chip/semi' stocks, Fri., near lows, again, dig ? ....2) slight props so far to B. Scheaffer, on being super-negative lately, with his VIX/QQV indexes....HOWEVER, his same NL's recently wrote, "low option volatility often presents excellent buying (calls) values forward historically" ....another seeming contradiction from him, yes ? remember, this followed his previous "I might have been wrong" column....so, there you have it....unclear as usual....MY cobcept hopefully presents both long AND put ideas simultaneously, especially in 'split' markets, a better way, avoiding index trading altogether, in favor of I.G. rotation, often....
3) big story, Tue., Merrill announced they will no longer allow their analysts to buy or hold positions in stocks those people cover....without a long story (re-read my Booklets), this is a totally useless, hypocritical, BS move, since, their overpaid analysts already have little responsibility or punishment nor technical knowledge, and, in fact, Sshould HAVE to buy/own everything recommended (don't get me started)....plus, this does nothing to address the nasty conflict that all B-firms provide investment banking services which greatly influence their 'verbal/written opinions' on tons of stocks, yes ? 'nuff said.... 4) Tue., a B-firm, Friedman, Billings, simultaneously became newly-bearish on the Energy stocks (late/low, as the pattern, right ?) after loving them at recent highs, of course....but then, also gave some 'buys' long on some of them....see why we believe as we do about firms and research ? next....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) as the July 9 deadline for Calif's. stupid-dangerous demand for 'overcharging by energy firms refund' (given that Calif. has not even paid those bills yet from months ago - think about that), involves probably only $ 1 B, instead of $ 3 B or $ 9 B, oy....of course, EIX and PCG stocks are up around + 100 % each since I called their lows (and I also called top in the 'crisis' S.T.), so I figure, as with moat allthings political, more posturing BS, wasting more taxpayer $....nothing good can come of that, either....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more Gains, some over + 100 % again:
all puts NVDA ( to 79) for Q % Gain....at least 1/2 NCR puts (50 to 39-) for Q % G....all puts BWS (20 to 15) for VQ % G....
and/but, longs, GTW ?, and, puts, TIN, FULL, GPT no, bt., for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....all still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....and we always expect some "fobd's" along the way among depressed stocks....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/3 pos. ACPW @ 15+, 1/3 pos. ADCT @ 6+, 1/2 pos. CAR @ 19+, 1/2 pos. CPC @ 18+, 1/2 pos. MRL @ 18+, 1/2 pos. DTPI. @ 10+, 1/3 pos. HAIN @ 22+, MDCC @ 17, 1/2 pos. VG @ 2.55, 1/3 pos. KTC @ 20+, 1/2 pos. MEOH @ 5+ ?, 1/2 pos. XXIA @ 10+,
1/3 pos. AEG ?, 1/2 pos. AETH @ 7+, 1/2 pos. HWP @ 26+, SCS @ 12, 1/2 pos. TVX ?, 1/3 pos. ABY @ 7+, 1/2 pos. CEL @ 6.8, PDE @ 18+, 1/2 pos. QLTI. @ 18+, RKY @ 50, SCH @ 15+, SLE @ 18+, KFY @ 15+, PWR @ 21+, 1/2 pos. ET @ 6, 1/3 pos. SUNW @ 14+, 1/3 pos. COMS @ 4 1/2,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AWE @ 15+, CCE @ 16, DSS @ 9 1/2, 1/2 pos. GTW @ 14+ ?, HPC @ 11+ eh, IBI. @ 14+, KEYN @ 9+, MCSI. @ 13++, POM @ 20+, VGZ @ 0.09, VRA @ 1+..."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, SLR, RPM, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. CACI. @ 44-, 1/3 pos. GIS ?, FRE @ 68+, 1/2 pos. HI. @ 67, 1/2 pos. LEN @ 45-, 1/2 pos. MAS @ 25+, TNB @ 22+, TTC @ 44++, and, shorted the NYSE's A/D line,
CL @ 60, 1/2 pos. KM @ 12-, RYL @ 55, SLM @ 76-, STI. @ 65+, 1/3 pos. WHR @ 64++, BVF @ 44+, LZ @ 33-, NBIX @ 39+, PGR @ 135+, RHB @ 48, SO @ 23++, SRCL @ 48-, UNH @ 64-, 1/3 pos. WHR @ 64-, (note, RGBK, was not bt. puts)
"Repeats": ASFC @ 58+, CHG @ 44++, CHD @ 25, ALL @ 44+, BBT @ 36+, 1/2 pos. CPG no ?, IVC @ 40, EDS @ 65-, GPT @ 39+, LHP @ 46-, LSTR @ 70, ORI.@ 29+....
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", GDT, WEBM, TCP, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, BCS, ROST, CERS, BBBY, KLAC, EFII, KM, IVX, PMI, TJX, KKD, CMX, KMX, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks ....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
T. 20.20 up 3.70 (adj. for AWE spin-off), VG 2.83 up 0.29, QLTI. 20.25, POM 21.75, POP 13.35, CCE 16.93, KEYN 9.93 up 0.38, ACPW 16, higher since last NL here....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
as expected, most all Techs pulling back a bit (giving you ample opp. to buy more near lows !), then bouncing a bit, including, many pb's: (mostly Techs/Telecoms/Comp.), CNXT 8.50 up 1.13, VRTA 11.72 up 0.72, CCE, IBI, ACTL, QLTI. 18.7....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) GTW 14.15, KANA, HPC, STTX, ALN, ACTL, SUNW, ET....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
NCR -5 1/2, LEN -2, PGR -1 1/2, HI. -1 1/2, TTC -1 3/8, NVDA -1, MMM -2, IGT -3, IBM -3 1/4, ALL -1, KM, BWS (S), CL -1, SLM -2 3/8, WHR -1, BVF -1, EXPD +1, -2, TNB, RHB, lower, some further, since last NL here....while, BWS, IBM, TGT, approach their 200 DMA....and, PHCC, KLAC, fell even further....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
some depressed Telecom/Wireless, Health-related, some Chem./Farm/Fert., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Apparel, Retail, etc., but probably not Airlines, nor big Golds, yet....and some Brokers improving technically....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over the weekend again....
added even more: but, note, I had removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note, re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
add, MSLV, ESPD ?, QGENF ?, WEBM, XXIA, ACPW, PETD ?, MDCC, ADCT, CSCO, ASML, HAIN ?, CTLM, CHKP, ATSN, ESV, MRL, HP, HNT ?, JBL, DIS ?, CAR, CPE, CPC, ROG, USG, GDT, PHTN, AETH, FCEL, ENMD, IMNX, MEOH, COGN, CHRS, EPNY, SONS, ABY, ASYT, CRA, CHK, CZN ?, CVG, SLE, PDE, AEG, SWS, ABX, SCS, PDG, RDRT ?, to, CMRC, ARXX, EXAR, HWP, MOT, AWE, KTC, TRO, RKY, IRF, JBL, SCH, TXN, TCP, BHE, CEL, KFY, MXO, CSCO, AG, TCC, ACTM, AVCT, CNET, SANM, QLTI, CHINA, CTHR, CDE, AES, LSI, ET ?, CCE, UMC, POWI, IFMX, TVX ?, CMNT, CLRN, SCMR, TERN, T, CLRS, BRIO, VRTA, KEYN, LBRT, WFII, CNXT, ORCL, POM, AVX, GSLI, SUNW, MPH, MRD, IBI, LTD, VG, RCG, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, BDX, ODP, HI, FRE, KMX, TNB, TTC, JOE, CMX, AEOS, BBBY, MRCY, IVX, BEN, CHTR, FTN, AEOS, MAS, LEN, CERS, KLAC, ROST, THQI, ESCM, CACI, COCO, CYTC, to, CTXS, GILD, SRCL, CL, AMG, KM, PMI, HDI, VAR, RHB, UVV, STI, NYT, PHM, WHR, UNH, LZ, RYL, ALL, KSS, PGR, NBIX, SRDX, CHS, XOM, MMM, GIS, NCR, KMP, GPT, BBT, IDPH, JBHT, SYMC, ERTS, STJ, CHRW, LLL, FDC, SYK, ASFC, AHG, RMD, TGT, LSTR, SO, EDS, BCS, TXU, ORI, ITT, CBT, CHG, IVC, HCA, BVF, IVGN, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Pollution-related, Homes/Building, Aero./Def., Disc. Chains, Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./Loans, Commercial Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Media, Apparel, Chemical, Tobacco, Food, Retail, and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES