Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, ended formally, back in early April 2000, with issue # 207+, a while ago....(so/but this NL is Not really being actually published formally, publically, any more, and has not been, for quite a while now ....I just wanted a place to keep track of what I would have said and done and felt, since I was forced undeservedly to stop my NL, months ago....this is ONLY for my own edification and proof of the value of my output and concepts to others), and anyone reading this has NOT gotten it from me....
dated: 9:00 am, PST, Monday, July 13, 2001


"2001: a Trading Odessey"

or, "The Patterns Rarely Change"

Important Note: this serious, very valuable "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, due to the too-often at least semi-gestapo, uncaring, ridiculous, illogical, NASD/SEC rules, and the uncaring, inconsiderate, and thoughtless nature of most all brokerage firms....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, here, twice each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance, very-long-term track record, and to offer further significant, in-advance, in-writing, 'proof' of the value and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

Obvious weakness spooked many, Tues., even us to a small extent....and, some QSL's, vs. all the new longside gains in section (4), ugh....but many depressed remain holding their patterns, and, are/were buyable, and. of course, we also have some Puts gains (and a few QSL's) and several remain puttable....and, see section (4) for all the longside bouncers among depresseds which HAVE held their patterns, I again had trouble convincing people to buy recently....memorize the pattern again....as you know, for a while now, I have continued to say, even as some Puttables work/don't work, and we have had some QSL's in some longs, way overbalanced by many more QLG's in longsiders, that the key would cont. to be, being more long in our depresseds, than anything else....and that tons of bases and db's would ensue from March/April, eventually leading the NASDAQ over 2300, etc....These surprise rallies like Thu., catch most of us offguard, but also point to the sanity of being long more, in our basers amd double-bottoms, all-along....big names, smaller names, techs, non-techs, I.G.R., etc.

Are new pops among already-extendeds (only) Thu., going be "fakeout B.O. rises' on (from the 95 %'s p.o.v.) 'better-then-negative earnings news" announced Wed. ? meanwhile, the NYSE's P/C ratio Wed. was 0.93, way too high, S.T. anyway, and sentiment-wise, meaning, at least a S.T. bounce was due, dig ? meanwhile, Fri., CNBC announced that people w/d, that was w/d, $ -11. B. from the longside M. Funds last week - right at the V.S.T. bottom in Techs....as usual, the pattern rarely changes....and, as usual, though we cont. to have and seek them out properly, our puts-QSL's are more than overbalanced by gains in Longside Techs ....and, Fri., Pisani said most of the Hedge Funds he spoke with, have been 'short' lately, including through yesterday's rallies, in Techs, and are "very nervous if we have further rallies in Techs" - of course, WE are/have been LONG techs, and/but took a few QSL's in some Puttables, while other Puts are/have been profitable the last few months....this may still bode well for our Longsiders....

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) as some of our I-was-first-only-to-suggest Bank/Finl. I.G. puts on herein fall a bit finally, note the stupid 'cover story' (re-read my Booklet) in the finl. Media, of 'supposed potential Foreign country loans problems at banks'....of course, as we bottom, they will sensationalize any such fundamentals, to 'spread' from Brazil/Argentina, to other similar countries, and, eventually, Mexico - watch for this....and watch for bottoms in many Foreign issues (not big further drops, dig ?) ahead.... 2) interesting (remember, 'it's just another I.G.'), some "Alternative Energy" stocks broke below budding patterns - but, in a way, this is good, in that, it further confirms the recent predicted-first/only-herein S.T. top and drop in Energy prices/stocks - but in a way bad, because it proves another "PSYCLE sm" concept long-taught -that our natl. nor state govts. will never really address the L.T. power problems nationwide....

3) and, also note, as I am, again, the first/only to predict herein for you, bounces off 'previously predicted stage 2 pb's to their 200 DMA' in some Gold stocks.... 4) my big Bond contact-guy dislikes the T-Bond, saying "we'll see 6 % yield before we see 5 % on the long bond"....we shall see....'the 95 % probably-incorrectly expects I.R.'s to fall forever, dig ? ....5) note selected strength in some extended Health-and-Housing-related stocks unexpected - with a couple of QSL's, as usual....but do not be quick to dismiss these as puttables, but are just other I.G.'s in the bigger picture....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) as usual, CNBC had pres. of another of my previously-basing-depressed stocks on, Wed. 9 am, 'WWW', only after big predicted-only-by-me-first rise....the pattern rarely changes....now, of course, just as with other Shoe and Aparrel stocks (which, as you know, most people have ignored, favoring 'sexier techs', right ?), herein, for you, they are 'super-excited about this supposed 'story' - late/high, as usual....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) more on the INcorrect-IMHO, misleading 'no inflation' trend (not): I just got notice, that, not only is ATT raising its phone rates - get this - 20 % across the board, ATT broadband is raising its cable-modem charges 15 % as well...but, as with much higher gas/oil/elec. prices, there's 'no inflation', right ? ....meanwhile, I went to local cable office to pay my bill, and there were many people in line, every one with a big problem ATTB caused and cannot fix easily, which consumers did not deserve....and, there was only one gal at the desk, no other employees there, and no supervisor or higher-up person to help....nice monopoly, ay ? ...2) more proof of my PSYCLE, as, Thu., CNBC reported "all those people shorting Retail stocks expecting disappointing earnings, then getting those bad news reports - but those stocks rising today"....'nuff said....NO "links'....

4) more economic stuff: the US growth slowed to +1.4 % from Oct. 00 to Mar. 01, worst since 1990-91, get it ? as I figured.... 5) all I heard Thu., even into the rally the boo-birds missed again, was "Argentina, etc." problems.... again, such 'news' tends to always only coming out AFTER big drops, and, anyone sellking a baser down -50 to -90 % off its high, is, well, you know, here.... remember, the pattern should be, that Techs rise, into people refusing to acknowledge it, until they are already up, then those doubters come in....just as they did after March/April rally highs hitting initial upside levels/resistance I delineated at length herein a while ago....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) the often-late B. Schaeefer, Thu., began to become bullish on Railroad stocks - high-late as usual....where was he a while ago when, as usual, I was the first/only to give some out at lows herein ?

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) in a disoplay of BS so vast as requires more space than I have here, Tue., the U.S. P.O. actually reported as supposedly 'good news', "despite losses of about $ 2 B, they will keep delivering mail on Saturdays" - well, guys, thanks for nothing - again....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....

"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:


still more Gains, some over + 100 % again:
1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. VRTA (9 to 13+) for 100% Gain....1/2 pos. calls SONS (18+ to 24+) for VVVVQ 125% G....all puts NVDA (100- to 79) for Q 88% G....at least 1/2 NCR puts (50 to 39-) for Q 90% G....all puts BWS (20 to 15) for VQ 100% G....1/2 pos. calls T (20+ to 25+) (adj. for spin-off) for VQ 100% G....all puts EDS (66 to 58++) for 60% G....1/2 pos. puts MMM (122 to 110+) for 44% G....1/2 pos. puts XOM (90 to 84) for Q 33% G....1/2 pos. puts IGT (64 to 56-) for VQ 60% G....

and/but, longs, TCP (13+, 15+, 13), CEL, MCSI, KFY ?, POM, PWER, PDE, MRL, ACPW, GTW, SCH ?, and, puts, LSTR, UNH, WHR, LEN, ASFC, TOL, TNB, RHB, RYL, FDC, SLM ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....all still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....and we always expect some "fobd's" along the way among depressed stocks....

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:

(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs):
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:

1/2 pos. CDE @ 1.2, 1/2 pos. COGN @ 15+, 1/2 pos. CSCO @ 16, OXGN @ 5, 1/2 pos. SCMR @ 7+, 1/2 pos. SONS @ 18+, 1/2 pos. USG @ 4,
ADCT @ 6, 1/2 pos. CAR @ 19+, 1/2 pos. CPC @ 18+, DTPI. @ 10+, MDCC @ 17, 1/2 pos. VG @ 2 1/2, 1/3 pos. KTC @ 20+, 1/2 pos. MEOH @ 5+, (note, HAIN, not bt.), 1/2 pos. HWP @ 25, SCS @ 12, 1/3 pos. ABY @ 7+, QLTI. @ 18+, RKY @ 50, SCH @ 14 ?, SLE @ 18+, 1/3 pos. SUNW @ 14-, XXIA @ 10,

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AWE @ 15+, COMS @ 4 1/2, DSS @ 9+, EXAR @ 17-, IBI. @ 14+_, KEYN @ 9+, LTD @ 15+, NEWP @ 21+, PWR @ 21+, RCG @ 0.70-, VGZ @ 0.09, VRA @ 1+..."buy (only) low", right ?

** Important: took, SBL, ENMD, IMNX, GDT, ABN, ACTM, CTC, TVX, HAIN, CHKP, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops:
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. CMX @ 16++, 1/2 pos. COCO @ 49, 1/2 pos. GTK @ 36-, 1/2 pos. KMP @ 72, 1/3 pos. STJ @ 62+, 1/2 pos. THQI. @ 60-,
1/2 pos. CACI. @ 45, 1/3 pos. GIS @ 44-,1/2 pos. HI. @ 67, 1/2 pos. MAS @ 25+, TTC @ 44++, and, shorted the NYSE's A/D line, NBIX @ 39+, SO @ 23++,

"Repeats": CHG @ 44++, BBT @ 36+, 1/2 pos. CPG no ?, FDC ?, LHP @ 46-, LZ @ 33-....

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", CLRS, SBC, CTLM, AG, MU, AMCC, CRA, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, FRE, PMI, ROST, RGBK, COCO, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):

**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).



acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn the pattern:
lots of nice gains:
CBJ 0.65 up 0.14, ET 8.01 up 1.81, AETH 9.86 up 2.16, XXIA 13.2 up 3.4, CLRN 9.25 up 1.90, SONS 24.8 up 6.6, MDCC 21.00 up 4, ADCT 6.84 up 0.86, VRTA 13.56 up 2.21, CLTK 14.50 up 2.33, DTPI. 12.0 up 1.2, USG 4.45 up 0.46, PWR 24.34 up 1.77, QLTI. 20.87 up 1.20, CSCO 16.8 up 0.8, KTC 21.31 up 1.11, CPC 19.45 up 1, CAR 19.7, ABN 18.4, CCUR 6.9 up 0.6, CCE 18.40 up 1.75, SCS 13.30 up 1.86, AEG 28.47 up 1.47, RKY 52 up 1 1/4, SCMR 7.99 up 0.90, IBI. 16.7 up 2.1, LTD 17.1 up 1.7, HWP 27.31 up 1.31, COGN 16.50 up 0.95, CTL 31.55, T. 21.4 up 0.7, POP 13.7, ADPT 11.25 up 1.40, higher since last NL here....

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and more bounces after pullbacks:
as expected, most all Techs pulling back a bit (giving you ample opp. to buy more near lows !), then bouncing a bit, including, many pb's: (mostly Techs/Telecoms/Comp.), NEWP 26.74, 21.53 (B), 25.15, COMS 4.40 (B), 4.93, DSS 9.60 (B), 10.38, IBI. 14.85, 15.95, VG 2.50, 2.75, AWE 15.78, 16.48, EXAR 16.90, 18.53, DTPI. 11.12, ACTL, AVX 20.79 up 1, SONS 23, ADPT 10.99 up 1, CNXT 8.86 up, RCG 0.68 (B), SUNW 14.75 up 0.85, AETH, CCUR, AEG 26.98, SLE 18.85, FON 22.15, AMCC 16.31 up, CDX 18.4....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....


and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:


(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) KANA, HPC 10.8 (L), STTX, ALN, ACTL, SUNW, SCH 13.95, 15.12, AEG, KFY 15.45 (sos)....was ACPW a 'fobd' ?

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:

(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, stick around:

Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out to learn:
PGR -5, MRCY -4, IBM -3, TYC -2 1/2, CACI. -2 3/8, SRDX -5, IGT -2 1/2, MMM -1 1/2, THQI. -1 1/2, SRCL -1, CL -4, WHR -1 1/2, TTC -1, BVF -1 1/2, NBIX -1, EXPD, ORI. -3/4, KMP -1, CBT, XOM -2 1/2, ALL -1 1/2, CHD -1 1/8, IVC, SNA, KM, lower, some further, since last NL here....while EXPD, EDS, approach their 200 DMA....

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):

: PGR +4 1/2, BBT, SYK, CHG, GPT, OXY, MAS, IBM +2, SRCL +2 1/2, -1 1/2, THQI. +3 1/2, XOM +1 1/2, CACI. +1, EXPD +2, SRDX +2 1/4, MMM +3, LZ....this ends our 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):


some depressed Telecom/Wireless, Health-related, some Chem./Farm/Fert., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Apparel, Retail, etc., but probably not Airlines, nor big Golds, yet....and some Brokers improving technically....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):

We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over the weekend again....
added even more: but, note, obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note, re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
add, OXGN, AVCT, VTSS, to, MSLV ?, ESPD ?, QGENF ?, WEBM, PETD ?, MDCC, ASML, ATSN, HNT ?, JBL, KPN, DIS ?, CAR, CPC, ROG, USG, PHTN, MEOH, COGN, EPNY, ABY, ASYT, CRA, CHK no, CZN ?, CVG, SLE, SWS, ABX, SCS, PDG, RDRT ?, to, CMRC, ARXX, EXAR, HWP ?, MOT, AWE, KTC, TRO, RKY, JBL, SCH no ?, TXN, BHE, MXO, CSCO, TCC, AVCT, CNET, SANM, QLTI, CHINA, CTHR, CDE, AES, UMC no ?, POWI, IFMX, CMNT, SCMR, TERN, BRIO, VRTA, KEYN, LBRT, WFII, CNXT, ORCL, AVX, GSLI, SUNW, MPH, MRD, IBI, LTD, RCG, as EVB's or bases.... and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, as all others have been recently Removed, now smaller list for you:

* add, GTK, BDX, ODP, HI, FRE, KMX, TTC, JOE, CMX, AEOS, BBBY, MRCY, IVX, BEN, CHTR, FTN, AEOS, MAS, CERS, KLAC, ROST, THQI, ESCM, CACI, COCO, CYTC, to, CTXS, GILD, SRCL, CL, AMG, KM, PMI, HDI, VAR, RHB, UVV, STI, NYT, PHM, LZ, ALL, KSS, PGR, NBIX, SRDX, CHS, MMM, GIS, NCR, KMP, GPT, BBT, IDPH, JBHT, SYMC, ERTS, STJ, CHRW, LLL, SYK, RMD, TGT, SO, EDS, BCS, TXU, ORI, ITT, CBT, CHG, IVC, HCA, BVF, IVGN, from recent past NL's....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Pollution-related, Homes/Building, Aero./Def., Disc. Chains, Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./Loans, Commercial Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Media, Apparel, Chemical, Tobacco, Food, Retail, and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES