1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) as some of our I-was-first-only-to-suggest Bank/Finl. I.G. puts on herein fall a bit finally, note the stupid 'cover story' (re-read my Booklet) in the finl. Media, of 'supposed potential Foreign country loans problems at banks'....of course, as we bottom, they will sensationalize any such fundamentals, to 'spread' from Brazil/Argentina, to other similar countries, and, eventually, Mexico - watch for this....and watch for bottoms in many Foreign issues (not big further drops, dig ?) ahead.... 2) interesting (remember, 'it's just another I.G.'), some "Alternative Energy" stocks broke below budding patterns - but, in a way, this is good, in that, it further confirms the recent predicted-first/only-herein S.T. top and drop in Energy prices/stocks - but in a way bad, because it proves another "PSYCLE sm" concept long-taught -that our natl. nor state govts. will never really address the L.T. power problems nationwide....
3) and, also note, as I am, again, the first/only to predict herein for you, bounces off 'previously predicted stage 2 pb's to their 200 DMA' in some Gold stocks.... 4) my big Bond contact-guy dislikes the T-Bond, saying "we'll see 6 % yield before we see 5 % on the long bond"....we shall see....'the 95 % probably-incorrectly expects I.R.'s to fall forever, dig ? ....5) note selected strength in some extended Health-and-Housing-related stocks unexpected - with a couple of QSL's, as usual....but do not be quick to dismiss these as puttables, but are just other I.G.'s in the bigger picture....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) as usual, CNBC had pres. of another of my previously-basing-depressed stocks on, Wed. 9 am, 'WWW', only after big predicted-only-by-me-first rise....the pattern rarely changes....now, of course, just as with other Shoe and Aparrel stocks (which, as you know, most people have ignored, favoring 'sexier techs', right ?), herein, for you, they are 'super-excited about this supposed 'story' - late/high, as usual....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) more on the INcorrect-IMHO, misleading 'no inflation' trend (not): I just got notice, that, not only is ATT raising its phone rates - get this - 20 % across the board, ATT broadband is raising its cable-modem charges 15 % as well...but, as with much higher gas/oil/elec. prices, there's 'no inflation', right ? ....meanwhile, I went to local cable office to pay my bill, and there were many people in line, every one with a big problem ATTB caused and cannot fix easily, which consumers did not deserve....and, there was only one gal at the desk, no other employees there, and no supervisor or higher-up person to help....nice monopoly, ay ? ...2) more proof of my PSYCLE, as, Thu., CNBC reported "all those people shorting Retail stocks expecting disappointing earnings, then getting those bad news reports - but those stocks rising today"....'nuff said....NO "links'....
4) more economic stuff: the US growth slowed to +1.4 % from Oct. 00 to Mar. 01, worst since 1990-91, get it ? as I figured.... 5) all I heard Thu., even into the rally the boo-birds missed again, was "Argentina, etc." problems.... again, such 'news' tends to always only coming out AFTER big drops, and, anyone sellking a baser down -50 to -90 % off its high, is, well, you know, here.... remember, the pattern should be, that Techs rise, into people refusing to acknowledge it, until they are already up, then those doubters come in....just as they did after March/April rally highs hitting initial upside levels/resistance I delineated at length herein a while ago....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) the often-late B. Schaeefer, Thu., began to become bullish on Railroad stocks - high-late as usual....where was he a while ago when, as usual, I was the first/only to give some out at lows herein ?
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) in a disoplay of BS so vast as requires more space than I have here, Tue., the U.S. P.O. actually reported as supposedly 'good news', "despite losses of about $ 2 B, they will keep delivering mail on Saturdays" - well, guys, thanks for nothing - again....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more Gains, some over + 100 % again:
1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. VRTA (9 to 13+) for 100% Gain....1/2 pos. calls SONS (18+ to 24+) for VVVVQ 125% G....all puts NVDA (100- to 79) for Q 88% G....at least 1/2 NCR puts (50 to 39-) for Q 90% G....all puts BWS (20 to 15) for VQ 100% G....1/2 pos. calls T (20+ to 25+) (adj. for spin-off) for VQ 100% G....all puts EDS (66 to 58++) for 60% G....1/2 pos. puts MMM (122 to 110+) for 44% G....1/2 pos. puts XOM (90 to 84) for Q 33% G....1/2 pos. puts IGT (64 to 56-) for VQ 60% G....
and/but, longs, TCP (13+, 15+, 13), CEL, MCSI, KFY ?, POM, PWER, PDE, MRL, ACPW, GTW, SCH ?, and, puts, LSTR, UNH, WHR, LEN, ASFC, TOL, TNB, RHB, RYL, FDC, SLM ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....all still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....and we always expect some "fobd's" along the way among depressed stocks....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. CDE @ 1.2, 1/2 pos. COGN @ 15+, 1/2 pos. CSCO @ 16, OXGN @ 5, 1/2 pos. SCMR @ 7+, 1/2 pos. SONS @ 18+, 1/2 pos. USG @ 4,
ADCT @ 6, 1/2 pos. CAR @ 19+, 1/2 pos. CPC @ 18+, DTPI. @ 10+, MDCC @ 17, 1/2 pos. VG @ 2 1/2, 1/3 pos. KTC @ 20+, 1/2 pos. MEOH @ 5+, (note, HAIN, not bt.), 1/2 pos. HWP @ 25, SCS @ 12, 1/3 pos. ABY @ 7+, QLTI. @ 18+, RKY @ 50, SCH @ 14 ?, SLE @ 18+, 1/3 pos. SUNW @ 14-, XXIA @ 10,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AWE @ 15+, COMS @ 4 1/2, DSS @ 9+, EXAR @ 17-, IBI. @ 14+_, KEYN @ 9+, LTD @ 15+, NEWP @ 21+, PWR @ 21+, RCG @ 0.70-, VGZ @ 0.09, VRA @ 1+..."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, SBL, ENMD, IMNX, GDT, ABN, ACTM, CTC, TVX, HAIN, CHKP, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. CMX @ 16++, 1/2 pos. COCO @ 49, 1/2 pos. GTK @ 36-, 1/2 pos. KMP @ 72, 1/3 pos. STJ @ 62+, 1/2 pos. THQI. @ 60-,
1/2 pos. CACI. @ 45, 1/3 pos. GIS @ 44-,1/2 pos. HI. @ 67, 1/2 pos. MAS @ 25+, TTC @ 44++, and, shorted the NYSE's A/D line, NBIX @ 39+, SO @ 23++,
"Repeats": CHG @ 44++, BBT @ 36+, 1/2 pos. CPG no ?, FDC ?, LHP @ 46-, LZ @ 33-....
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", CLRS, SBC, CTLM, AG, MU, AMCC, CRA, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, FRE, PMI, ROST, RGBK, COCO, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
lots of nice gains:
CBJ 0.65 up 0.14, ET 8.01 up 1.81, AETH 9.86 up 2.16, XXIA 13.2 up 3.4, CLRN 9.25 up 1.90, SONS 24.8 up 6.6, MDCC 21.00 up 4, ADCT 6.84 up 0.86, VRTA 13.56 up 2.21, CLTK 14.50 up 2.33, DTPI. 12.0 up 1.2, USG 4.45 up 0.46, PWR 24.34 up 1.77, QLTI. 20.87 up 1.20, CSCO 16.8 up 0.8, KTC 21.31 up 1.11, CPC 19.45 up 1, CAR 19.7, ABN 18.4, CCUR 6.9 up 0.6, CCE 18.40 up 1.75, SCS 13.30 up 1.86, AEG 28.47 up 1.47, RKY 52 up 1 1/4, SCMR 7.99 up 0.90, IBI. 16.7 up 2.1, LTD 17.1 up 1.7, HWP 27.31 up 1.31, COGN 16.50 up 0.95, CTL 31.55, T. 21.4 up 0.7, POP 13.7, ADPT 11.25 up 1.40, higher since last NL here....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
as expected, most all Techs pulling back a bit (giving you ample opp. to buy more near lows !), then bouncing a bit, including, many pb's: (mostly Techs/Telecoms/Comp.), NEWP 26.74, 21.53 (B), 25.15, COMS 4.40 (B), 4.93, DSS 9.60 (B), 10.38, IBI. 14.85, 15.95, VG 2.50, 2.75, AWE 15.78, 16.48, EXAR 16.90, 18.53, DTPI. 11.12, ACTL, AVX 20.79 up 1, SONS 23, ADPT 10.99 up 1, CNXT 8.86 up, RCG 0.68 (B), SUNW 14.75 up 0.85, AETH, CCUR, AEG 26.98, SLE 18.85, FON 22.15, AMCC 16.31 up, CDX 18.4....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) KANA, HPC 10.8 (L), STTX, ALN, ACTL, SUNW, SCH 13.95, 15.12, AEG, KFY 15.45 (sos)....was ACPW a 'fobd' ?
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
PGR -5, MRCY -4, IBM -3, TYC -2 1/2, CACI. -2 3/8, SRDX -5, IGT -2 1/2, MMM -1 1/2, THQI. -1 1/2, SRCL -1, CL -4, WHR -1 1/2, TTC -1, BVF -1 1/2, NBIX -1, EXPD, ORI. -3/4, KMP -1, CBT, XOM -2 1/2, ALL -1 1/2, CHD -1 1/8, IVC, SNA, KM, lower, some further, since last NL here....while EXPD, EDS, approach their 200 DMA....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
some depressed Telecom/Wireless, Health-related, some Chem./Farm/Fert., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Apparel, Retail, etc., but probably not Airlines, nor big Golds, yet....and some Brokers improving technically....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over the weekend again....
added even more: but, note, obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note, re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
add, OXGN, AVCT, VTSS, to, MSLV ?, ESPD ?, QGENF ?, WEBM, PETD ?, MDCC, ASML, ATSN, HNT ?, JBL, KPN, DIS ?, CAR, CPC, ROG, USG, PHTN, MEOH, COGN, EPNY, ABY, ASYT, CRA, CHK no, CZN ?, CVG, SLE, SWS, ABX, SCS, PDG, RDRT ?, to, CMRC, ARXX, EXAR, HWP ?, MOT, AWE, KTC, TRO, RKY, JBL, SCH no ?, TXN, BHE, MXO, CSCO, TCC, AVCT, CNET, SANM, QLTI, CHINA, CTHR, CDE, AES, UMC no ?, POWI, IFMX, CMNT, SCMR, TERN, BRIO, VRTA, KEYN, LBRT, WFII, CNXT, ORCL, AVX, GSLI, SUNW, MPH, MRD, IBI, LTD, RCG, as EVB's or bases.... and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, GTK, BDX, ODP, HI, FRE, KMX, TTC, JOE, CMX, AEOS, BBBY, MRCY, IVX, BEN, CHTR, FTN, AEOS, MAS, CERS, KLAC, ROST, THQI, ESCM, CACI, COCO, CYTC, to, CTXS, GILD, SRCL, CL, AMG, KM, PMI, HDI, VAR, RHB, UVV, STI, NYT, PHM, LZ, ALL, KSS, PGR, NBIX, SRDX, CHS, MMM, GIS, NCR, KMP, GPT, BBT, IDPH, JBHT, SYMC, ERTS, STJ, CHRW, LLL, SYK, RMD, TGT, SO, EDS, BCS, TXU, ORI, ITT, CBT, CHG, IVC, HCA, BVF, IVGN, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Pollution-related, Homes/Building, Aero./Def., Disc. Chains, Utilities, Insur./Bank/Mtg./Loans, Commercial Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Media, Apparel, Chemical, Tobacco, Food, Retail, and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES