1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) looks like we were right on the Banks lower, again.... 2) you know I devalue fundamentals, but, week of 7/26, Robinson- Stephens will be having their annual "Semi./Tech. stocks conference", so watch for more S.T. tops on those Extended stocks, and, possibly, more bottoms among the Depressed EVB's among those I.G.'s ....3) note Puts added among some Oil Svc. stocks, as previously suggested, even though they are not right at recent highs....they do look like S.T., H & S tops, so we'll fade the street here as well....Remember, these "stocks" will fall, even as "cash Oil" rises for a little while more, right ? Also, a "commodity pitching guy" on KWHY-tv, just added Crude and Heating Oil, as long buys, up here....this is the same guy who added "Copper" after it also had already risen a bunch, remember ? oh, and notice, as I mentioned here, Copper itself, held at its expected 62-63 cent support I gave you last time it fell to there, herein, and has risen already, to the high 70's quickly, recently....but you didn't hear anyone else bullish on Copper down there, did you ? again, the pattern never changes....so, I added some more Energy stocks as puttables, below....
4) allied, in a way (many Chemicals are made from oil, as you know), I added more Chemical stocks to puttable list, below....hey, I said "allied" and "chemical", a pun.... 5) also, I see more extended Retail stocks looking toppy.... so am adding more of them, below....as you know, that I.G. has been on my puttable list for a while.... 6) as I may be the first to point out recently here to you, more Extended Semiconductor stocks look toppy.... 7) last, as recently suggested, some Asian stocks beginning to show toppy signs, just as the 'experts' begin to discover them up here, as usual, way, way up from where I was among the first/very few to call bottoms, also on TV, last year.....anyway, Fri. 16 th, the Taiwan stock index had its largest one-day drop, ever, down -6 or -7 %....Cool....and, allied, sort of, some Mexico stocks are about to also make tops....just FYI, let me be the first to get that message out there, as "the 95 %" rbecome super-bullish up here, dig ? ....8) and, don't forget, most Internet ISP stocks remain in stage 6 in their "PSYCLE sm"....check them out....and, remember, probably 2/3 of al "internet -oriented" companies/stocks will likely NOT exist, several years from now, in their "PSYCLE sm"....I told you, Internet usage is DOWN, but will continue to survive/exist, of course....and, I don't know about you, but no one I communicate with, uses any of the many supposed 'services/products' that all the past years' IPO's companies offer....exactly where are they going to actually generate revenues/profits from ? can't happen, for most of them.... 8) while we know the "Dow Theory" is semi-useless, the DJ. Trans. Avg. does look like a S.T. saucer, yes ? Even with Oil prices way up, Airlines are not breaking down ....NO "link", right ? I already gave you TWA, HA, below, may still need more work, though.... 9) last, had to take Q, very S, losses in Golds....no biggie....no emotion....Remember, 'gold' is just another I.G.
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper comments from the
Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) CNBC's Bob Pisani, commenting near the close, Thu. 15 th, called it "drifting higher"....Hey, Bob, stocks rarely "drift higher" ....they most often "drift lower".... 2) Pisani (again), at the close, Thu. 15 th, commenting on the Health/Hosp. stocks, incorrectly said, "they always go up the first half of the year, and down the second half of the year....UNH, OXHP, UHS, etc. Gee, Bob, "always" ? How far back in history have you researched such an irresponsible and simplistic statement ? One or two years' past action does NOT a cycle make....But, then, You can "say/make up" anything you wish, to try to "create" a "story/item", right ? with no consequences to you....Exactly from where did you come up with that incorrect one ? ....3) Pisani (again) Fri. 16 th, 10 am, mentioned, "the amazing, frustrating Paper group....", as if they have been somehow difficult to predict....Gee, Bob, if you just contacted me, and gotten my NL, I would have given them to you, long from last year's lows saucers, long again from early 1999 lows saucers, and then as Puts, from recent highs, herein....Fact: this I.G. is neither "amazing", nor "frustrating" --- if you know something about how stocks move --- which, as we have proven countless times, the vast majority of reporters do not....
4) an actually helpful interview of Jason Zweig, on CNBC, Mon. 19 th, 8:44 am, a known investment magazine writer, who agreed with me, saying, "the Motley Fools" give out "investment hogwash....just picking whatever has been strong recently, with no logical underpinnings to any (consistently) useable 'concept/strategy/approach', putting out contorted versions of stock lists, with results driven by pure luck, with no historical basis, no logical hypothesis.... their portfolios make no sense....any success they may have had, and will have, is just dumb luck....Just because something has been working recently, does not mean it will work in the future, or has worked in the past...." That's a close quote, gang....As I have said since those guys began (massively financially and Media backed as they have been, don't get me started), they have hurt guys like me, and many traders, joining W.C. in that realm....BTW, when I contacted the Fools (who actually are correctly named), asking about their real-money track records, experience, backgrounds, education, etc., they openly wrote me that "we know nothing....we are all attorneys by ex-vocation"....implying the just 'caught lightening in a bottle', which is exactly what has happened...'nuff said....
5) CNBC's Bill Griffith, gushing ridiculously, and incorrectly, first, said the Media, and Magazines, did an "incredible" job (over)covereing the unfortunate JFK, Jr. tragedy. Gee, "incredible" ? How exactly ? Just because monopoly TV and Print entities with huge resources just aching for a story like this, saturated us the last few days, predictably ? That's not 'incredible', that's "normal" and usual, par for the course, for them, yes ? And, of course, plenty of other nice, worthy people have unfortunate tragedies every day, yet no one saturates the Media with their stories....You don't think they might just be trying to sell magazines or airtime, do you ? They just salivate to exploit a story like this, yes ? Please re-read my "media" and "scenarios" booklets.... and then, in Mr. Exaggeration's next story, he said, "J.P. Morgan and Citigroup, "Killed" the estimates, their earnings beating the street by several cents per share...." Gee, Bill, since when is 'several cents', "killing" the estimates ? Then, immediately after, Bob Pisani (surprisingly) correctly suggested that many other Banks have not beaten estimates, and that Mr. Griffith should perhaps tone his comments down....I figure some people at JPM, or C., must have bought him lunch over the weekend, to plant the "killing estimates" words in his ear.... Again, the "PSYCLE sm" message, is to learn to filter/ignore 95 % of all Media comments drastically, and gain proper perspective and historical facts, so one can make better decisions/choices....oh, and, just for the record, since when is such a death, NOT "untimely" ? You'd think massively overpaid professional wordsmiths could find things to say, other than tired, overused, old cliches....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/newspapers/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.: 1) Fri. 16 th, CNBC finally had CEO of our "UNO cp.", only after it rose way up, hitting $ 14....Hmmmm, when I gave it to you herein in its nice "PSYCLE sm" base, it was $ 6+, last Fall, right ? Once again, the pattern never changes....are you learning ? ....2) CNBC reporter, Fri. 16 th, "it is impossible to find a brokerage firm that is not upgrading PMCS here around $ 80...." Famous last stage 4 words ? we shall see.... 3) several B-firms recently upgraded ALTR, around $ 45, which is on my pot. put list as you know....we generally find comfort fading such opinions, yes ? ....4) Schwab (SCH) announced higher future expected earnings, but its stock fell 3 points, Friday...see the chart ? ....5) as I predicted, L.A. Times, 7/11, headline, "Real Estate Price Hikes Slow Dramatically at Subdivisions this year": for the first 6 mos. of 1999 out here, prices were up only +2. to +3. %, vs. up +12. % in the same period last year....Saying, "Builders who bought land last year at prices assuming a continued high rate of appreciation will be hard presssed to earn expected profits....they are finding their margins squeezed....Price increases have fallen from roughly 20+ % last year, to the 2 to 3 % area so far in 1999." And my "PSYCLE sm" was, again, the first/only to call it, on T.V., late last July....getting more death threats.... 5) CNBC, Mon. 19 th, 10:15 am, had on the pres. of "MMCN", a new Puttable of mine, see its potential parabola ? Bill Griffith said, "the money seems to have shifted, from the internet content providers, to the infrastructure companies, yes ?" Of course, he says this now, only AFTER such stocks have ALREADY risen a ton, yes ? gee, don't we also remember he said the same about the 'content providers" near THEIR top, earlier ? we shall see....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) Thu. 15 th, CNBC, 12:45 pm, Phil Roth (M,S,D,W), a guy I truly respect as a technical analyst, commenting on the Energy stocks, actually said, "if we can get more of a rise in Oil prices, these stocks could begin to rise...." Huh ? aren't they ALREADY up a ton ? Hey, Phil, give me a call....I am fading you.... 2) DLJ, just made our "ASD", their top buy pick, around $ 48., let's see if fading them works.... 3) CNBC, Fri. 16 th, 9:50 am, had Neuberger Berman Fund mgr. on, who loves STRX, Star Media, saying "just hold it for the long-term, and hope you are right"....great advice....Not. And you get paid for saying such things ? ....4) Fri., 16 th, 10:10 am, CNBC interviewed the writer of a new Index Fund book, who actually said, obviously promoting such funds, "Index Funds are relatively predictable", implying that one "just buys and holds them forever, and they always outperform the avg. managed fund", etc. Gee, "if" predicting indexes is easier (which cannot be true, for many obvious reasons), millions of people would rarely lose, right ? Anyway, such "one-decision-forever-with-no-adjustments" type of investing concepts may have worked in some recent years, but, L.T., they are easily outperformed with good I.G.R. trading, with stops....even among M. Funds.... 5) Mon. 19 th, 9:25 am, CNBC interviewed an "Insider activity guy", who recommended "YUM", long, due to insider buying, incorrectly saying, "it has been acting great"....excuse me ? it had been FALLING from 73 to 48, holding as expected at its 200 DMA, then just bouncing, yes ? ....On the good side, he did mention HNZ, a 'food' stock in the "right I.G." potentially, as having rare insider buying....He also, mentioned "insider selling" in CMVT, SLR, two stocks on my puttables list at times, as you know....they ARE getting quite extended....check them all out, but I have NO formal opinions on any of them, technically, here....just FYI.
e) while, as you know, I detest most "political stuff", I am encouraged by the potential for government, state and national adopting a "hands off" approach to "internet regulation" a bit....as with the "potentially charging specially for internet access over phone lines" issue, hopefully, the powers-that-tax-and-ruin, will let the free market (no such thing, but it is at least close) be, for a while longer....write your politicos....this is an issue worth preserving....
As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
stk.on.mgn. UNO (6+ to 14-) for L.T. 125% Gain....calls RIG (23 to 30) for Q 111% G....1/2 pos. css. ANCR (38 to 27) for VQ 55% Gain....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. SHO (4 to 6-) for VVQ 55% G....puts UHS (54+ to 45-) for Q 85% G....puts SWC (32+ to 25+) for VVQ 90% G....bal. calls RJF (19 to 24) for 75% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. JOB (4+ to 6+) for VQ 66% G....
and/but, longs, FLE, ASA, NEM, CFS, and, puts, VRIO, CMVT, SYB, SYK ?, BSX, POWI., AXE, NTLI., TECD, VOD ?, NMR, for quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....weird put-side lately....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones)
"Repeats": (note, some new ones today !) ACL @ 25++, BGO @ 9/16, BS @ 7 1/2, BYX @ 3 9/16, CAU @ 0.20, CCH @ 0.28, DAY @ 0.08, DMI. @ , FOTO @ 3-, GISH @ 2 13/16, GRERF @ 0.28, GSR @ 11/16, HEC @ 1 11/16, HNV @ 2 1/2, HUM @ 13-, HZP @ 5.06, KRY @ 5/8, OCR @ 12-, RAD @ 21+, RDRT @ 6-, SAMC @ 5 1/2, SCY @ 4 1/4, UQM @ 4 3/16, VGZ....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds...."buy (only) low", right ? but some are "optionables/higher-priced" (but still Not that great a list, as I have been intimating recently)
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) ....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion, diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, CFS, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) ADI. @ 49+, ALGX @ 58-, APA @ 39+, BHI. @ 34, BJS @ 30, BTY @ 180-, DD @ 73+, DEX @ 41+, EQ @ 70-, FMX @ 41-, HPC @ 39+, PERC @ 50-, PKS @ 40-, ROI/A @ 45, SLB @ 64+, WORK @ 15+, XRX @ 59+,
"Repeats": ASTE @ 43+, BBBY @ 39, CCL @ 50-, CMVT @ , EAT @ 28, FLT @ 45-, OAT @ 69-, SEE @ 54-, TGNT @ 62+, VRSN @ 92, WAT @ 56, WFT @ 38+,
again, more puttables.....hmmmm....
and/but, took, VSH, CXR, CMCSK, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....also, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", MWHS, CWC, SLE, ATC, CXI., NVX, CYB, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, COF, NBR, HPC, PHCC, KSWS, AMGN, TOM, TI., as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock here was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
HZP 5 3/4 up 3/4, OPTS 4 1/8 up 3/8, TGX 8 5/8 up 3/4, CDN 16 up 1 1/8, UNO 14 1/4 up 1 5/8 (S), DSL 22 3/4 up 1, TMD 9 1/2, AFG 35 3/8, STEI. 14 3/4, FTL 10 1/8, PLL 22 3/8, higher still, since last time here....see the long base ? also, SGE, STK, approached its 200 DMA....while, CBTSY 24, OMPT 37, ARW 22, BLUD 18+, MTIC 25+, ANDW 24+, CBRL, SUN, higher still, I gave you them herein, near their lows....also check their patterns, to learn from....they were longer-term trades....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: ABH 3 up 5/8, HEC 2 up 3/8, BLM 2 7/8 up 3/8, PLC 4 1/8 up 3/4, BYX 3 7/8 up 3/8, RAD 23 3/8 up 2, ACL 27 up 1 1/2, TMK 34 1/8, HPH 2, SWW, TGX, WIX, APM, RDRT, GDC, BUNZ, SAMC, CCC, RAL, IFMX, BS, ALL, DGN, PSFT, CNC, HLX, WH, LDW, TXM, APFC, PMC, SVRN, HIV, TXB, TWA, WTT, UDG, UFC, SXTN, TPS, MSN, ESC, RTC, CCH, STE, IDC....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below.... note, how, WIX pulled back, but held at its 200 DMA support....after some work, might stage 2 lie ahead for it at some point ?
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) AU, FOTO, CNC, UFC, HLX, ACL, WTT, UQM, NOV, FTL, RDRT, UFC, APM, OCR, MAN, BBA, ATV, DGN, RTC, HIV, TXB, BYX, DAY, BGO, SXTN, SSC, OMM, ESC, DMI, RYO, CAU, MSN, WH....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
GNET -7, ANCR -6 1/2 (S), BTY -5, DD -4, YHOO -7, SWC -2 1/2 (S), XRX -3, SEE +1 3/8, -2 1/2, SLB -2, EQ -2, BJS -1 3/4, APA -1 1/2, ADI. -1 1/2, PKS -1 1/2, RAYS -1 1/2, HPC -2, TERN -1, FOE -1, DEX -1, BHI. -1, GLK -1, WFT -1, DRQ, EAT, CCL, DEX, FO, down/further, since last time here.... also, SWC, COF, ECL, fell to/below their 200 DMA, see it ?
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
Again, we still need to see many stocks break below recent
lows/necklines, and, so far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the
recent "1/2 pos.(ition)" sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own,
regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not
break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's High, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn the Patterns from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times,
right ? View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT
"chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their
lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan", one should probably
not do the real cheapies, etc.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
Prec.Metals (GSR, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DAY, AZC, BGO, most all real cheapies, riskier, some may need more work/time)
Foods (OPTS, UFD.A, VBAC, VL), others are already up....
Insur./Financial: (AFG, TW, SVRN, ALL, TMK)
and, Cyclical/Steel/Copper, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....but the Steels have been improving, technically....
Note how many stocks there are on these lists....what I see, I share, for your benefit....as I have said countless times here, try to VIEW at least "some" of them, every day, for, say, 10 mins....do NOT try to view them all, at once.... since most remain on these lists for a while, hopefully you will know when they pullback to buyable levels, having seen their chart patterns before....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, APM, BGP, RDRT, AIB, GLB, WHX, WRE, to, SLE, SPC, OMI, CPU, CDN, CPQ, OCR, MXG, HPH, TLD, CBR, HA, LTV, DMI., TXM, HZP, AVM, EAR, TKN, NTN, HIV, MT, IT, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) AIMM, ATV, BDT, BYX, CCC, CWC, FNL, GDC, GLDR, GRERF, HEC, HNV, IO., MSN, VDC, RTC, SAMC, SCY, SHOW, SWW, TTRIF, TWA, UQM, WGA, XCL, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers.... still, not that great a list, in the main.... which should tell you something about "the marketplace".
also "Repeating" recent, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real mish-mosh: adding, MMP, NHC, OMI, KSE, THC, RHI., SIF, to, BCP, ADM, IHK, NVX, NX, BOGN, STE, CYB, PMD, SEM, TW, HLT, NCT, SGE, ELK, EXX/A, GNRL, BTGC, TSA, TPS, TZA, CDT, TXM, VL, HUM, VCR, IDC, IRSN, ONX, ONPT, GISH, PBY, NHP, ABTX, LDW, TIE, as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, this is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They only
become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if they decline
towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over
time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns
? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
note, these lists are Growing again....
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Health, Medical: BIO/A, CCBL, INPH, etc.
Telecom/Commun./Internet: PCS, NMR, BTY, TEF, SBC, YHOO, VCI., VRSN, GCI, GNET, CCU, AT, MFNX, CVC, etc.
Financial/Bank: PAYX, ABK, EQ, XRX, NTRS, ONE, JPM, MMC, SEIC, etc.
Cap. Goods/Machy./Cyclicals: ITW, GLK, etc.
Energy Services: BHI, BJS, NBR, WFT, SDC, HAL, SLB, APA, etc.
Chemical-relateds: HPC, DEX, ECL, WAT, SEE, etc.
Food-relateds: OAT, EAT, etc.
Retail/Clothing: BBBY, IBI, DG, ANF, SCNYB, FDS, DDS, DD, FMX, LTD, TOM, GPS, etc.
other "techs/computer/software/semis/media, etc." , Puttables, are in two lists just below....
**** new ones: added, ADI., AMGN, APA, BBBY, BOL, CHD, CPWM, CVC, DD, DDS, FMX, GPS, HAL, HDI., INPH, INTC, JBL, JNPR, KSWS, LTD, MMCN, MARG, MEDQ, MFNX, MRD, PSIX, PHCC, PLX, RNWK, SANM, SLB, SYKE, TI., TOM, TSI., VIA, WORK, to, MSPG, DEX, ALGX, ESST, GPSI, CCL, UTC, TRY, ROIA, ASD, AT, IMN, RTN, ROK, SFA, SFX, TERN, TRK, TSM, VERT, to,
("repeats") ABDR, ADVP, ASND, ASTE, AWRE, BSYS, CPN, EDS, EL, EXDS, FO, LEA, LXK, PKS, PL, SCAI., VTEL, VRTY, XLNX, and most "amex WEBS" securities....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: adding, "Publishing", to, Machy./Cap. Goods, Energies/Oil Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Banking, Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and most all Tele.-Commun., Retail, Leisure, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks, as some tops broaden....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: Addendum to last lesson here: the point was/is, that, regardless of anyone's allowed beliefs about that subject, whether or not one's beliefs are true, those assumed "factors", still, are of little or not "D.A.F.P.P. Value", with respect to future stock price moves, right ?....
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....